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EMAPS

MAPPERS: Benjamin Ooghe-Tabanou, SciencesPo Kari De Pryck, SciencesPo Martina Elisa Cecchi, Density Design Nicolas Baya-Laffite, SciencesPo

EMAPS (Electronic Maps to Assist Public Science) is a collborative research project funded by the European Research Council to map controversies around climate change adaptation. For more info please visit http://www.emapsproject.com/blog/objectives.

Paolo Ciuccarelli, Density Design Richard Rodgers, UvA Tommaso Venturini, SciencesPo

2 0 ye a rs o f n e g o t i ati ons on ada pta t i o n a t UNFCCC CO P s 1/4

D ES CRIPT ION In the following table we have an overview of negotiations per COPs and information about global and adaptation issues discussed.

I ss ues on adaptation

C op s through year s

G lobal issue s discusse d

W H E N TH E UNFCCC WAS AD O PT ED I N 1992 , ADAP TATI O N WAS L ARG E LY S E E N A S A N A F T E RT HO U GHT TO M I T I GAT I O N . I N R E C E N T Y E ARS , H O WEVE R , ADAP TATI O N H AS B E C O M E A K E Y P I E C E O F TH E R E S P O NS E TO C L I M AT E C HA NGE .

The Convention was set with the ultimate objective to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interferences with the climate system. It was based on principles of sustainable development, precaution, polluter-pays, common but differentiated responsibilities (equity) and economic efficiency.

The "Berlin Mandate" agreed on establishing a process to negotiate strengthened commitments for developed countries in order to meet the Convention's objective.

Quantified Emissions Limitation and Reduction Objectives (QELROs) for different Parties and an acceleration of the Berlin Mandate talks were discussed. Need to favor flexibility and legally binding mid-term targets was highlighted. focusing on strengthening the financial mechanism, the development and transfer of technologies and maintaining the momentum in relation to the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. Geneva Ministerial Declaration noted but not adopted.

INC 11 N ew Yo r k

COP 01 Berlin

C O P 02 Gen eva

COP 03 Kyoto

COP 04 Buenos Aires

COP 05 Bonn

CO P 0 6 The H a g ue

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Representatives of AOSIS and African countries renewed concern about their particular vulnerability and the lack of technical and financial resources for prevention and adaptation, and called on the GEF to play an enabling role. Focus was mainly on observing the impacts of climate change and assessing risks and vulnerabilities.

Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol set up an adaptation fund based on CER from CDM. Small vulnerable countries obtained funding for adaptation on the basis of allowing developed countries to buy offsets from bigger developing countries.

Only few references to adaptation on the need to consider the issue and its funding through CDM.

AOSIS keeps emphasizing their vulnerability to global warming and underscored the need to develop long term approaches to adaptation in the Convention’s context.

1995

State responsibility for adverse effects of climate change was raised by AOSIS and vulnerable countries, but political compromises prevented agreement about the responsibility of impacts. Adaptation related issues are mentioned in many key convention commitments (e.g. article 4.4. on developed countries assisting most vulnerable countries in meeting costs of adaptation; article 4.8 for insurance for climate change loss and damage induced impacts). Adaptation, however, will be long downplayed during COPs and funding struggles happening parallel to the UNFCCC.

Key decisions on a staged-approach to funding, which will last until 2002. In practice, reduced funding allocated for adaptation.

Adoption of Kyoto Protocol setting Annex I and Annex B countries binding emission reduction targets for the six major greenhouse gases for 2008-2012. Outlining of Kyoto mechanisms (emissions trading, CDM, JI). Developing rules for emissions trading and methodological work in relation to forest sinks remain issues for future international consideration.

Failure to resolve unfinished Kyoto issues. The adoption of a 2-year “Buenos Aires Plan of Action” opened a process for finalizing the rules and operational details of the Protocol. Focus is on strengthening the financial mechanism, the development and transfer of technologies.

Resolution of technical issues with no major agreements. Discussions focus on the adoption of the guidelines for the preparation of national communications by Annex I countries, capacity building, transfer of technology and flexible mechanisms.

Debates on US proposal on including carbon sinks (forests and agriculture) and on support for developing countries to meet reductions. Rejection of compromise positions. Failure and collapse of negotiations on Bonn agreements.

Discussion are growing on the need to establish an adaptation fund, but disagreements on the type of fund, its funding modalities and competences prevailed.

Bush administration's rejection of KP leading US out of KP negotiations. Consensus reached on Bonn agreements and decisions including capacity-building for developing countries and countries with economies in transition. Decisions on several issues, notably the mechanisms land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) and compliance, remained outstanding.

Completion of Buenos Aires Plan of Action. Concern about meeting the conditions to bring the KP into force after US withdrawal. Agreements reached on a package deal (the Marrakech Accords) including operational rules accounting procedures and compliance regime, consideration of LULUCF Principles in reporting and limited banking of units generated by sinks under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) (the extent to which carbon dioxide absorbed by carbon sinks can be counted towards the Kyoto targets).

COP 0 7 Ma rra ke c h

COP 06bis B onn

2001

Further discussions on the establishment of an adaptation fund.

Adaptation policy moves on to a phase of planning and pilot implementation. NAPA's were set up. Adaptation Fund, the Special Climate Change (SCC) Fund and the Least Developed Countries (LDC) Fund were created to support technology transfer, adaptation projects and other activities, taking into account national communications or NAPAs, and other relevant information provided by the applicant Party.

Russia's hesitation threatening the Protocol's entry into force after US and Australia's withdrawal. Discussion on adequacy of developing countries commitments. Delhi work program on Article 6 of the Convention. Need to build on the outcomes of the World Summit highlighted.

Decisions on the institutions and procedures of the Kyoto Protocol and on the implementation of the UNFCCC adopted. Agreement to review national reports submitted by non-Annex I countries. Guidelines for reporting emissions adopted on the basis of IPCC's good practice guidance as a reliable foundation for reporting on changes in carbon concentrations resulting from land-use changes and forestry due to 2005. Marrakech package completed by agreement on modalities of CDM projects on cabon-absorbing management. COP 9 is seen as the "forest COP".

Discussion on the framing of a new dialogue on the future of climate change policy. Emphasis is put on both mitigation and adaptation. Decisions adopted on LULUCF, funding mechanisms, adaptation response measures, and UNFCCC Article 4 on education, training and public awareness, examining the issues of adaptation and mitigation,the needs of least developed countries (LDCs). Post-2012 discussions started.

First COP with the Protocol's entry into force. Montreal Action Plan set the road for Post-2012 agreement.

COP focused on Africa, most vulnerable countries, adaptation and capacity building. 5 year Nairobi Work Program adopted. The Nairobi Framework will provide support for developing countries in implementing CDM projects. Adoption of rules of procedure of the Protocol's compliance committee.

The Bali Road Map was adopted, opeining a two-year process towards a strengthened international climate change agreement, including the four pillars Bali Action plan for post 2012 and emission reduction from deforestation. AW-LCA to discuss the Conventions' implementation post-2012 and AW-KP for furthering commitments were created. Discussions put into question the common but differentiated principle on a purely historical basis, as regards actual responsibility for emissions, particularly from BRICS.

Negotiating schedule for 2009 post-2012 agreement intensified. Progress was made on a number of issues of particular importance to developing countries, namely adaptation, finance, technology and REDD.

Climate change policy spurs attendance at the COP of highest number of heads of state since the beginning of the UNFCCC. Around 115 world leaders attended the high-level segment. Post-2012 ambitious climate agreement objectives were, however, not achieved. Instead it produced the Copenhagen Accord, agreeing on the long-term goal of limiting the maximum global average temperature increase to no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, subject to a review in 2015. Reluctance to adopt binding commitments became evident, setting a new “bottom up” approach (opposite to the previous "top-down" approach). A number of developing countries agreed to communicate their efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions every two years.

Cancun Agreements were adopted. Parties agreed on 1990-levels as base line and on IPCC's projections as reference, setting the 2C goal to limiting temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. A technology mechanism to boost the development and spread of new climate-friendly technologies making fully operational by 2012.

With the Kyoto Protocol's first engagement period coming to an end, Parties agreed a second commitment period (2013-2020) and reached an agreement on adopting a new binding agreement comprising all countries by 2015 to take effect in 2020. Work begun under the Ad Hoc working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP). A framework for the reporting of emission reductions for both developed and developing countries was also agreed.

A timetable to adopt a new universal climate agreement by 2015 was set out. Work under the Bali Action Plan was completed. New work towards a 2015 agreement was concentrated under the ADP single negotiating stream. The Doha Climate Gateway was adopted. It included amended 2013-2020 commitments, limited to 16% scope of global CO2 emissions.

Decisions adopted included further advancing the Durban Platform, the Green Climate Fund and Long-Term Finance, the Warsaw Framework for REDD+, among other.

COP 0 8 Ne w D e lhi

COP 0 9 Mila n

COP 1 0 Buenos Aires

COP 1 1 Mont re a l

COP 1 2 Na iro b i

COP 13 Bali

COP 14 Po z n a n

COP 15 Copenhagen

COP 16 Ca n c u n

COP 17 Durban

COP 18 Doha

COP 19 Wa r s aw

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

22001122

22001133

The Bali Conference marked a turning point in adaptation policy towards scaling up implementation and mainstreaming. One of the significant outcomes bringing together both adaptation and finance was the decision to operationalize the Adaptation Fund, which was set up to finance adaptation in developing countries. The Fund had proven to be particularly delicate to negotiate because, unlike other funds under the UNFCCC, it is funded through a levy on CDM projects in developing countries and is therefore not dependent on donors.

Strengthening previous agreements and mechanisms on adaptation. Adaptation Fund was launched under the Kyoto Protocol, to be filled by a 2% levy on CERs sold under the CDM. It was agreed that the Adaptation Fund Board should have legal capacity to grant direct access to developing countries.

Developing countries called for greater focus on adaptation, but disagreements arose on the status of adaptation with regards to mitigation. Some parties had a tendency to merge both issues, while others claimed that mitigation and adaptation are separate issues. Attempts to achieve a balance between adaptation and mitigation did not succeed. COP-8 is with COP-10 part of the so-called "adaptation COPs".

China/G77 and AOSIS, concerned with the mixed results of mitigation measures pushed for more attention to adaptation needs. The COP stressed the need for developed countries to provide detailed information on their assistance to most vulnerable developing country Parties in meeting costs of adaptation.

The Buenos Aires programme of Work on Adaptation and Response Measures is established and aimed at enhancing capacity at all levels to identify and understand impacts, vulnerability and adaptation responses, and implementing practical, effective and high priority adaptation actions. According to ENB: a new chapter in the negotiations. COP-8 is with COP-10 part of the so-called "adaptation COPs".

Adverse effects of climate change on developing and least developed countries, and several financial and budget-related issues, including guidelines to the Global Environment Facility (GEF) were addressed. Following the aftermath of several extreme weather events (Katrina, EU heatwaves, Australia's fires, droughts and floodings in Middle-income countries (MICs)) put an end to a narrative of invulnerability in developed countries, which started considering their own adaptation needs. It is agreed that adaptation is of high priority for all countries. The controversy on adaptation vs mitigation is "closed". The debate is moving toward adaptation funding.

Agreement on procedures of the Adaptation Fund and “Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change” to assist all Parties to improve their understanding and assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, and make informed decisions on practical adaptation actions and measures (UNFCCC).

The COP mentioned the Green Climate Fund, established one year later in Cancun. Developed countries agreed to support a goal of mobilizing US$100 billion a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries to show they are still engaged in the negotiation process, even though this Copenhagen is seen as the COP of failed ambitions.

The Green Climate Fund was formally established but not agreed upon. A debate emerged about the transfer of funding from development to adaptation. The loss and damage approach gained visibility with the establishment of a specific work program. Developed and developing countries maintained divergent views on institutional mechanisms and funding regarding loss and damage.

Agreement on Green Climate Fund Framework to provide financing for action in developing countries via thematic funding windows, including for adaptation. The Cancun Adaptation Framework aims at enhancing actions on adaptation through international cooperation, and the creation of an Adaptation Committee.

Loss and damage concept formalized. Little progress on Green Climate Fund. Controversies revolved on funding for adaptation and loss and damage.

Loss and damage concept formalized. Little progress on Green Climate Fund. Controversies revolved on funding for adaptation and loss and damage.


EMAPS

MAPPERS: Benjamin Ooghe-Tabanou, SciencesPo Kari De Pryck, SciencesPo Martina Elisa Cecchi, Density Design Nicolas Baya-Laffite, SciencesPo

EMAPS (Electronic Maps to Assist Public Science) is a collborative research project funded by the European Research Council to map controversies around climate change adaptation. For more info please visit http://www.emapsproject.com/blog/objectives.

Paolo Ciuccarelli, Density Design Richard Rodgers, UvA Tommaso Venturini, SciencesPo

2 0 ye a rs o f n e g o t i ati ons on ada pta t i o n a t UNFCCC CO P s 2/4

DESC R I P TI O N Hereunder, the relative importance of all adaptation related issues in the Earth Negotiation Bulletins (ENB). It shows adaptation that if adaptation is present in the negotiations since the beginning, it only starts assuming greater attention since COP5 (1999) pushed by most vulnerable countries. Attention falls in The Hague (2000) with the controversy on US proposals on sinks, but only to rise again since 2000, reaching a maximum at New Delhi (2002) and remaining very high until Nairobi (2006). Firmly established, adaptation becomes less urgent, especially as the post-Kyoto debate rises.

T he d yna m i cs o f ad apt at i o n co m m it m en t s visu alised t h ro u gh UN FCCC documents, EN B negoti a ti on rep or t s, C F U f u n d i n g s a n d wo rldw ide even t s

A timeline of related worldwide scientific, political and natural events which happened during the 20 years of negotiations is displayed, along with a histogram of fundings received each year in different geographical zones for “adaptation” projects as catalogued by the Climate Funds Update. This histogram shows the growing volume of the adaptation finance, starting from 2003/04 with the operationalisation of the first multilateral funds for adaptation. The decrease observed in 2013 may depend on an incomplete data collection for this year. Looking at how the financing from the

multilateral funds is divided among different regional areas, it is possible to observe the clear predominance of sub-saharan Africa and Asian and Pacific regions.

% LEGEND 100 Asia and Pacific

ENB on adaptation

Europe and Central Asia

Scientific events

90

Global Political events

Latin America and the Caribbean

Natural events

80

Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Unknown

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Co ps t hro u gh yea r s

INC 1 1 Ne w Yo r k

1995

COP 01 Berlin

C O P 02 Gen eva

C O P 03 Kyo t o

C OP 04 Buenos Aires

COP 05 Bonn

COP 06 The H a gue

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

COP 06bis Bonn

COP 07 Ma rra kech

2001

COP 0 8 N ew D e lhi

COP 0 9 Mila n

COP 1 0 Buenos Aires

COP 1 1 Mont re a l

COP 1 2 Na irob i

COP 1 3 B a li

COP 1 4 Pozna n

COP 1 5 Copenhagen

COP 1 6 C a nc un

COP 1 7 D urb a n

COP 1 8 D oha

COP 19 Wa r s aw

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

22001122

22001133

0

100

200

300

400

500

mill $ Recognition of AR2 finding on discernible human influence over climate system. Controversies on evidence for attribution will follow.

M E T H O DS The graph shows the visibility in each Conference of Parties (COPs) of the 22 most active countries in the UNFCCC negotiations. The visibility of each country is measured as the number of paragraphs of the ENB in which the name of the country appears. This choice is dictated by the fact that paragraphs represent the thematic unity of the ENB (in most cases, each paragraph is devoted to one and only one subject).

President Bush removes US from KP. AR3 published.

In the graph, each country is represented by a stream the size of which is proportional to the number of paragraphs in which the country is mentioned, and the position of which depends on the relative visibility of the country in each of the COPs (e.g. the U.S. is the first country in the first column because it is the country most often mentioned in the New York conference).

Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable development.

Katrina hurricane.

Subprimes crises.

Firm agreement on evidence of the reality and the origin of climate change will emerge in the AR4. IPCC received Peace Nobel Prize.

Perry et al report claims UNFCCC's estimations fall short on costs of adaptation. Climategate, IPCC controversies growing distrust in climate science.

Philippines typhoon. Scientists warn actions are insufficient to meet the 2C goal.

Typhoon Haiyan, said to be the strongest to hit Phillipines AR5 WG1 was published.

Hurricane Sandy hit NY in October, just before the COP; Typhoon Bopha hit Philippines during the COP, said to be the strongest.


EMAPS

MAPPERS: Benjamin Ooghe-Tabanou, SciencesPo Kari De Pryck, SciencesPo Martina Elisa Cecchi, Density Design Nicolas Baya-Laffite, SciencesPo

EMAPS (Electronic Maps to Assist Public Science) is a collborative research project funded by the European Research Council to map controversies around climate change adaptation. For more info please visit http://www.emapsproject.com/blog/objectives.

Paolo Ciuccarelli, Density Design Richard Rodgers, UvA Tommaso Venturini, SciencesPo

20 yea rs o f n e g o t i ati ons on ada pt a t i o n a t UN FCCC CO P s 3/4

ME TH O D S The graph shows the visibility in each Conference Of Parties (COPs) of the 12 major topic of the negotiation. Each theme is defined by a dictionary of several expressions that have been automatically and manually extracted from the text of the ENB. The expressions are grouped to form themes on the basis of their tendency to co-occur together in the same paragraphs. The visibility of each theme is measured as the number of paragraphs of the ENB in which at least two of the expression defining the theme appear. This choice is dictated by the fact that

E volut ion o f th e d i f f er en t th em es discu ssed du rin g each C OP s i n EN B negoti a ti on rep orts

LEGEND

COP # N City

COP # N City

Topic #1

TO PI C’ S I MPO RTA N CE Number of topic’s mentions in the paragraphs ranked in decreasing order COP by COP

COP # N City

paragraphs represent the thematic unity of the ENB (in most cases, each paragraph is devoted to one and only one subject). In the graph, each theme is represented by a stream the size of which is proportional to the number of paragraphs in which the theme is mentioned, and the position of which depends on the relative visibility of the theme in each of the COPs (e.g. “Adaptation Funding and equity” is the first theme in the first column because is the theme most often mentioned in the New York conference).

Topic #3

Topic #2

Topic #3 Topic #3

COP 06 The H a gue

METER O F TH E D I S CUS S I O N Total number of paragraphs in the UNFCCC documents

Topic #1

Topic #2

Topic #2 Topic #1

COP 1 5 Copenhagen

COP 1 0 Buenos Aires Adaptation funding & equity

COP 01 Berlin

C O P 02 Gen eva

C O P 03 Kyo t o

COP 04 Buenos Aires

COP 05 Bonn

COP 06bis Bonn

COP 07 Ma rra kech

COP 0 8 N e w D e lhi

COP 1 1 Mont re a l

COP 1 2 Na irob i

COP 1 3 B a li

COP 1 6 C a nc un

COP 1 4 Pozna n

COP 1 7 D urb a n

COP 0 9 Mila n

COP 1 8 D oh a

Adaptation funding & equity

COP 19 Wa r s aw

Redd + post-Kyoto

INC 11 N ew Yo r k Energy + technology transfer

CDM + carbon offsets

Energy + technology transfer Adaptation funding & equity

Land use & forests

GHGs & emission measures Energy + technology transfer Adaptation funding & equity

Energy + technology transfer

Vulnerability + adaptation action

Models and IPCC CDM + carbon offsets

Social & environmental impacts

Transport sector Land use & forests Vulnerability + adaptation action

GHGs & emission measures

Kyoto protocol

CDM + carbon offsets

Social & environmental impacts

CDM + carbon offsets

Land use & forests

Kyoto protocol

Compliance enforcement Compliance enforcement

Kyoto protocol

Land use & forests

GHGs & emission measures

Models and IPCC Kyoto protocol

Post-Kyoto and Redd

Models and IPCC

Social & environmental impacts

Vulnerability + adaptation action

Compliance enforcement

Vulnerability + adaptation action

Compliance enforcement

Transport sector

Transport sector

Redd + post-Kyoto

GHGs & emission measures

Models and IPCC

Social & environmental impacts Transport sector

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

22001122

22001133


EMAPS

MAPPERS: Benjamin Ooghe-Tabanou, SciencesPo Kari De Pryck, SciencesPo Martina Elisa Cecchi, Density Design Nicolas Baya-Laffite, SciencesPo

EMAPS (Electronic Maps to Assist Public Science) is a collborative research project funded by the European Research Council to map controversies around climate change adaptation. For more info please visit http://www.emapsproject.com/blog/objectives.

Paolo Ciuccarelli, Density Design Richard Rodgers, UvA Tommaso Venturini, SciencesPo

20 ye a rs o f n e g o t i ati ons on ada pta t i o n a t UNFCCC CO P s 4/4

DESC R I P TI O N The diagram shows the number of intervention in the negotiations of the 21 most active countries of the UNFCCC debate (as reported in the Earth Negotiation Bulletin). The size of the flow is proportional to the number of paragraphs of the ENB reports in which the name of each of the top 21 countries is mentioned. The data are calculated COP by COP. The flows are ranked by the number of mentions (the highest flow for each COP correspond to the country most active in that COP, the lowest the least active country). The diagram shows a remarkable stability. Most countries tends to maintain their relative

E volut ion o f co u n t r y p ar tecipat io n s du rin g each C OP s in ENB negoti a ti on rep orts

LEGEND

COP # N City

Country #1

COP # N City

CO UN TR Y ’ S ACTI V I TY I N TH E D I S CUS S I O N Number of country’s mentions in the paragraphs ranked in decreasing order COP by COP

COP # N City

Country #3

Country #2

METER O F TH E D I S CUS S I O N Total number of paragraphs in the UNFCCC documents

Country #1

Country #2 Country #3 Country #3

Country #2 Country #1

ME TH O D S The graph shows the visibility in each Conference of Parties (COPs) of the 22 most active countries in the UNFCCC negotiations. The visibility of each country is measured as the number of paragraphs of the ENB in which the name of the country appears. This choice is dictated by the fact that paragraphs represent the thematic unity of

the ENB (in most cases, each paragraph is devoted to one and only one subject). In the graph, each country is represented by a stream the size of which is proportional to the number of paragraphs in which the country is mentioned, and the position of which depends on the relative visibility of the country in each of the COPs (e.g. the U.S. is the first country in the first column because it is the country most often mentioned in the New York conference).

COP 06 The H a gue COP 0 9 Mila n

INC 11 N ew Yo r k COP 04 Buenos Aires

COP 1 5 Copenhagen

COP 1 0 Buenos Aires

COP 19 Wa r s aw

COP 05 Bonn

C O P 03 Kyo t o

China

COP 07 Ma rra kech

C O P 02 Gen eva

United States

rank throughout the 19 COPs. There are however a few notable exceptions that we’ll see in the next graph.

COP 1 2 Na irob i

C OP 0 8 Ne w D e lhi

COP 1 3 B a li COP 1 4 Pozna n

COP 1 1 Mont re a l

COP 1 6 C a nc un

COP 1 8 Doha COP 1 7 D urb a n

China

COP 06bis Bonn

COP 01 Berlin United States

China

China United States

Europe

Europe

Europe

Europe United States

Philippines

Japan

Switzerland

Philippines

Japan

Australia

India

Canada

Japan

Australia

Canada

Australia

Saudi Arabia

Germany

Bolivia Norway

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

Brazil

Brazil South Africa

Canada

Canada Switzerland

Australia

Saudi Arabia

Tavalu

Kuwait Argentina

South Africa

Germany

New Zealand

India

New Zealand Russian Federation

New Zealand

Norway

Colombia

Brazil

Mexico

Kuwait

Japan

India

Russian Federation

Kuwait Norway

Switzerland

Philippines

Mexico Bolivia

Tavalu

Colombia

Bolivia

Brazil

Mexico Bolivia

Tavalu New Zealand

Argentina India

Russian Federation

Colombia

Argentina Russian Federation

Norway

Germany Kuwait

Colombia

South Africa Mexico

Bolivia

Bolivia

Philippines

Argentina Switzerland Mexico South Africa Germany Philippines Kuwait

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

22001122

22001133


EMAPS

MAPPERS: Benjamin Ooghe-Tabanou, SciencesPo Kari De Pryck, SciencesPo Martina Elisa Cecchi, Density Design Nicolas Baya-Laffite, SciencesPo

EMAPS (Electronic Maps to Assist Public Science) is a collborative research project funded by the European Research Council to map controversies around climate change adaptation. For more info please visit http://www.emapsproject.com/blog/objectives.

Paolo Ciuccarelli, Density Design Richard Rodgers, UvA Tommaso Venturini, SciencesPo

20 yea rs o f n e g o t i ati ons on ada pt a t i o n a t UN FCCC CO P s 3/4

D ESC RIP TI O N The place of vulnerability and adaptation policy as a focus negotiations in the UNFCCC has clearly evolved over the COPs. Whereas it was present but not at the core of negotiations in the early COPs focused on reaching an agreement on a binding framework to reduce GHGs emissions leading to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol (KP) and its flexible mechanisms, the issue constantly grew from Marrakech (2000) to Buenos Aires (2004). The “COPs of adaptation”, New Delhi (2002) and Buenos Aires (2004) will enshrine the recognition that vulnerability and adaptation measures are a

E volut ion o f th e d i f f er en t th em es discu ssed du rin g each C OP s i n EN B negoti a ti on rep orts

LEGEND

COP # N City

COP # N City

Topic #1

TO PI C’ S I MPO RTA N CE Number of topic’s mentions in the paragraphs ranked in decreasing order COP by COP

COP # N City

mainstream issue in the UNFCCC process, leading through Montreal (2005) and Nairobi (2006) to the end of the controversy on adaptation vs. mitigation. This became evident in the 2007 Bali’s four pillars including adaptation, alongside with mitigation, technology transfer and finance in a shared vision for long-term cooperative action. Since Poznan, adaptation action falls as a focus of attention and concern. On the one hand, the Copenhagen failure reconfigured priorities for the following COPs, focused on the definition of a new post-2012

universal Protocol for reducing emissions. On the other hand, the recent COPs saw the growth of debates on funding, as well as the increasing importance of social justice dimensions of climate change around the loss and damage concept.

Topic #3

Topic #2

Topic #3 Topic #3

COP 06 The H a gue

METER O F TH E D I S CUS S I O N Total number of paragraphs in the UNFCCC documents

Topic #1

Topic #2

Topic #2 Topic #1

COP 1 5 Copenhagen

COP 1 0 Buenos Aires

COP 01 Berlin

C O P 02 Gen eva

C O P 03 Kyo t o

COP 04 Buenos Aires

COP 05 Bonn

COP 06bis Bonn

COP 07 Ma rra kech

COP 0 8 N e w D e lhi

COP 1 1 Mont re a l

COP 1 2 Na irob i

COP 1 3 B a li

COP 1 6 C a nc un

COP 1 4 Pozna n

COP 1 7 D urb a n

COP 0 9 Mila n

COP 1 8 D oh a

COP 19 Wa r s aw

Redd + post-Kyoto

INC 11 N ew Yo r k

CDM + carbon offsets

Vulnerability + adaptation action

CDM + carbon offsets

Social & environmental impacts

Vulnerability + adaptation action Kyoto protocol

CDM + carbon offsets

Social & environmental impacts

CDM + carbon offsets Kyoto protocol

Compliance enforcement Compliance enforcement

Kyoto protocol

Kyoto protocol

Post-Kyoto and Redd Social & environmental impacts Vulnerability + adaptation action

Compliance enforcement

Vulnerability + adaptation action

Compliance enforcement

Transport sector Redd + post-Kyoto

Social & environmental impacts

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

22001122

22001133


EMAPS

MAPPERS: Benjamin Ooghe-Tabanou, SciencesPo Kari De Pryck, SciencesPo Martina Elisa Cecchi, Density Design Nicolas Baya-Laffite, SciencesPo

EMAPS (Electronic Maps to Assist Public Science) is a collborative research project funded by the European Research Council to map controversies around climate change adaptation. For more info please visit http://www.emapsproject.com/blog/objectives.

Paolo Ciuccarelli, Density Design Richard Rodgers, UvA Tommaso Venturini, SciencesPo

20 yea rs o f n e g o t i ati ons on ada pt a t i o n a t UN FCCC CO P s 3/4

D ESC RIP TI O N Adaptation and equity related issues have always been high on the negotiations agenda. But not always at the same degree. Developed countries’ responsibility for adverse effects of climate change was a major issue during the early negotiations on the Convention (before 1995). If political compromises will downplay adaptation and focus will be limited to assessing climate change impacts and country vulnerability during the first COPs, vulnerable countries bargain strategy will manage to include adaptation funding provisions in the Kyoto Protocol (1995). Debates about the mechanisms to ensure this, reached critical levels at

E volut ion o f th e d i f f er en t th em es discu ssed du rin g each C OP s i n EN B negoti a ti on rep orts

LEGEND

COP # N City

COP # N City

Topic #1

TO PI C’ S I MPO RTA N CE Number of topic’s mentions in the paragraphs ranked in decreasing order COP by COP

COP # N City

Hague COP (2000), with strong disagreements on the type of fund, its funding modalities and competences. With growing concern about the Parties’ ability to meet the main convention’s objective (mitigation), vulnerability, impacts and adaptation action and funding debates constantly grew from Marrakech (2000) to Bali (2007), becoming since then a mainstream issue. The New Delhi (2002) and Buenos Aires (2004) COPs will thus be known as the “COPs of adaptation”. In the aftermath of several extreme weather events, Montreal (2005) marked the end of the narrative of invulnerability in developed countries, and

with it, the controversy on adaptation vs mitigation was "closed". Discussions moved since Nairobi (2006) toward the operationalisation of funds. with growing evidence on climate change. Since then, and specially after the Copenhagen failure, the the agenda was reconfigured by to raising issues of concern and debate during the following COPs : the definition of a new post-2012 universal Protocol for reducing emissions, the growing recognition of the social dimensions of climate change impacts, and the progressive enshrinement of the loss and damage approach.

Topic #3

Topic #2

Topic #3 Topic #3

COP 06 The H a gue

METER O F TH E D I S CUS S I O N Total number of paragraphs in the UNFCCC documents

Topic #1

Topic #2

Topic #2 Topic #1

COP 1 5 Copenhagen

COP 1 0 Buenos Aires

COP 01 Berlin

C O P 02 Gen eva

C O P 03 Kyo t o

COP 04 Buenos Aires

COP 05 Bonn

Adaptation funding & equity

COP 06bis Bonn

COP 07 Ma rra kech

COP 0 8 N e w D e lhi

COP 1 1 Mont re a l

COP 1 2 Na irob i

COP 1 3 B a li

COP 1 6 C a nc un

COP 1 4 Pozna n

COP 1 7 D urb a n

COP 0 9 Mila n

COP 1 8 D oh a

Adaptation funding & equity

COP 19 Wa r s aw

Redd + post-Kyoto

INC 11 N ew Yo r k

Adaptation funding & equity

Adaptation funding & equity

Vulnerability + adaptation action

Social & environmental impacts

Vulnerability + adaptation action Social & environmental impacts

Post-Kyoto and Redd Social & environmental impacts Vulnerability + adaptation action Vulnerability + adaptation action

Redd + post-Kyoto

Social & environmental impacts

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EMAPS

MAPPERS: Benjamin Ooghe-Tabanou, SciencesPo Kari De Pryck, SciencesPo Martina Elisa Cecchi, Density Design Nicolas Baya-Laffite, SciencesPo

EMAPS (Electronic Maps to Assist Public Science) is a collborative research project funded by the European Research Council to map controversies around climate change adaptation. For more info please visit http://www.emapsproject.com/blog/objectives.

Paolo Ciuccarelli, Density Design Richard Rodgers, UvA Tommaso Venturini, SciencesPo

20 yea rs o f n e g o t i ati ons on ada pt a t i o n a t UN FCCC CO P s 3/4

D ESC RIP TI O N While both adaptation and mitigation are core elements of the UNFCCC, mitigation has had priority on the agenda from the beginning of the UNFCCC negotiations. Talks started in Berlin (1995) with the aim of reaching an agreement on a binding framework to reduce GHGs emissions, which culminated with the adoption of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol (KP) and its flexible mechanism. Since then the issue of emission mitigation was less discussed within the UNFCCC arena and adaptation gained visibility. Debate mostly evolved around technical and practical questions regarding the operationalization of the

E volut ion o f th e d i f f er en t th em es discu ssed du rin g each C OP s i n EN B negoti a ti on rep orts

LEGEND

COP # N City

COP # N City

Topic #1

TO PI C’ S I MPO RTA N CE Number of topic’s mentions in the paragraphs ranked in decreasing order COP by COP

COP # N City

agreement.Three events bring back mitigation to a certain level of attention: the US refusal to ratify the Protocol (Bonn 20 01) Russia’s hesitation to enter the KP after US and Australia's withdrawal (New Delhi 2003); and its entering into force following the 55th country ratification (Montreal 2005). Since The Hague (2004) debates on US proposal to include carbon sinks (forests and agriculture) as well as on support for developing countries to meet reductions became the major issue. In this context, the mechanisms land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), CDM projects, and compliance will raise strong debates.

Buenos Aires (2004) and Bali (2007) COP will see agreement and progressive stabilisation of issues pertaining to technology transfer or fuel emission reductions, CDM and forestry management projects and the constant rise of REDD and post-Kyoto debates. Since Copenhangen, mitigation is definitely back to the front issues with the expiration of the KP and a renewed concern on energyand technology transfer.

Topic #3

Topic #2

Topic #3 Topic #3

COP 06 The H a gue

METER O F TH E D I S CUS S I O N Total number of paragraphs in the UNFCCC documents

Topic #1

Topic #2

Topic #2 Topic #1

COP 1 5 Copenhagen

COP 1 0 Buenos Aires Adaptation funding & equity

COP 01 Berlin

C O P 02 Gen eva

C O P 03 Kyo t o

COP 04 Buenos Aires

COP 05 Bonn

COP 06bis Bonn

COP 07 Ma rra kech

COP 0 8 N e w D e lhi

COP 1 1 Mont re a l

COP 1 2 Na irob i

COP 1 3 B a li

COP 1 6 C a nc un

COP 1 4 Pozna n

COP 1 7 D urb a n

COP 0 9 Mila n

COP 1 8 D oh a

COP 19 Wa r s aw

Redd + post-Kyoto

INC 11 N ew Yo r k

CDM + carbon offsets

Land use & forests

CDM + carbon offsets Land use & forests

Kyoto protocol

CDM + carbon offsets

CDM + carbon offsets

Land use & forests

Kyoto protocol

Compliance enforcement Compliance enforcement

Kyoto protocol

Land use & forests

Kyoto protocol

Post-Kyoto and Redd

Compliance enforcement Compliance enforcement

Redd + post-Kyoto

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EMAPS

MAPPERS: Benjamin Ooghe-Tabanou, SciencesPo Kari De Pryck, SciencesPo Martina Elisa Cecchi, Density Design Nicolas Baya-Laffite, SciencesPo

EMAPS (Electronic Maps to Assist Public Science) is a collborative research project funded by the European Research Council to map controversies around climate change adaptation. For more info please visit http://www.emapsproject.com/blog/objectives.

Paolo Ciuccarelli, Density Design Richard Rodgers, UvA Tommaso Venturini, SciencesPo

20 ye a rs o f n e g o t i ati ons on ada pta t i o n a t UNFCCC CO P s 4/4

D E S C R I P TI O N Observing the map it is possible to observe the rise of the Philippines and Bolivia, two countries of the South of the Word who has take more and more of importance in the latest COPs. In particular, Bolivia (who never ranked very very high in the first 15 COPs) has a dramatic rise in visibility starting from COP16 in Cancun where it takes the lead on the question of ‘loss and damage’ and REDD. The trajectory of the Philippines is also very interesting. Starting very high in the first COPs (4th place in New York INC11 and 6th place in Berlin COP1), the Philippines lose

E volut ion o f co u n t r y p ar tecipat io n s du rin g each C OP s in ENB negoti a ti on rep orts

LEGEND

CO P # N City

Country #1

COP # N City

CO UN TR Y ’ S ACTI V I TY I N TH E D I S CUS S I O N Number of country’s mentions in the paragraphs ranked in decreasing order COP by COP

COP # N City

Country #3

Country #2

METER O F TH E D I S CUS S I O N Total number of paragraphs in the UNFCCC documents

Country #1

Country #2 Country #3 Country #3

Country #2 Country #1

visibility in the following COPs, but regains the 4th position in Doha COP18 and Warsaw COP19.

COP 06 The H a gue COP 0 9 Mila n

INC 11 N ew Yo r k COP 04 Buenos Aires

COP 1 5 Copenhagen

COP 1 0 Buenos Aires

COP 19 Wa r s aw

COP 05 Bonn

C O P 03 Kyo t o

COP 07 Ma rra kech

C O P 02 Gen eva

COP 1 2 Na irob i

C OP 0 8 Ne w D e lhi

COP 1 3 B a li COP 1 4 Pozna n

COP 1 1 Mont re a l

COP 1 6 C a nc un

COP 1 8 Doha COP 1 7 D urb a n

COP 06bis Bonn

COP 01 Berlin

Philippines Philippines

Bolivia

Philippines Bolivia Bolivia Bolivia

Bolivia Bolivia

Philippines

Philippines

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EMAPS

MAPPERS: Benjamin Ooghe-Tabanou, SciencesPo Kari De Pryck, SciencesPo Martina Elisa Cecchi, Density Design Nicolas Baya-Laffite, SciencesPo

EMAPS (Electronic Maps to Assist Public Science) is a collborative research project funded by the European Research Council to map controversies around climate change adaptation. For more info please visit http://www.emapsproject.com/blog/objectives.

Paolo Ciuccarelli, Density Design Richard Rodgers, UvA Tommaso Venturini, SciencesPo

20 ye a rs o f n e g o t i ati ons on ada pta t i o n a t UNFCCC CO P s 4/4

D E S C R I P TI O N A few countries have punctual spikes in visibility in some specific COPs. Mexico scores relatively low for most of the negotiations, but jumps to the 5th position in the COP16 that it hosted in Cancun. Even more interesting is the trajectory of Tuvalu. Starting from the Kyoto COP3, the tiny pacific island has entered and remained in the top20 of the most visible countries of UNFCCC (which is in itself a remarkable results). But Tuvalu reaches the 13th position in Poznan COP14, the 9th position in Copenhague COP15 and 12th in Cancun COP16. Argentina has a particularly discontinuous

E volut ion o f co u n t r y p ar tecipat io n s du rin g each C OP s in ENB negoti a ti on rep orts

LEGEND

CO P # N City

Country #1

COP # N City

CO UN TR Y ’ S ACTI V I TY I N TH E D I S CUS S I O N Number of country’s mentions in the paragraphs ranked in decreasing order COP by COP

COP # N City

Country #3

Country #2

METER O F TH E D I S CUS S I O N Total number of paragraphs in the UNFCCC documents

Country #1

Country #2 Country #3 Country #3

Country #2 Country #1

trajectories, peaking in the top10 in COP4 Buenos Aires (9th position), COP10 Buenos Aires (7th position) and COP17 Durban (8th position).

COP 06 The H a gue COP 0 9 Mila n

INC 11 N ew Yo r k COP 04 Buenos Aires

COP 1 5 Copenhagen

COP 1 0 Buenos Aires

COP 19 Wa r s aw

COP 05 Bonn

C O P 03 Kyo t o

China

COP 07 Ma rra kech

C O P 02 Gen eva

COP 1 2 Na irob i

C OP 0 8 Ne w D e lhi

COP 1 3 B a li COP 1 4 Pozna n

COP 1 1 Mont re a l

COP 1 6 C a nc un

COP 1 8 Doha COP 1 7 D urb a n

COP 06bis Bonn

COP 01 Berlin United States

Tavalu Argentina

Mexico

Tavalu Mexico

Mexico

Tavalu Tavalu

Argentina Argentina

Mexico

Argentina

Mexico

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22001122

22001133


EMAPS

MAPPERS: Benjamin Ooghe-Tabanou, SciencesPo Kari De Pryck, SciencesPo Martina Elisa Cecchi, Density Design Nicolas Baya-Laffite, SciencesPo

EMAPS (Electronic Maps to Assist Public Science) is a collborative research project funded by the European Research Council to map controversies around climate change adaptation. For more info please visit http://www.emapsproject.com/blog/objectives.

Paolo Ciuccarelli, Density Design Richard Rodgers, UvA Tommaso Venturini, SciencesPo

20 ye a rs o f n e g o t i ati ons on ada pta t i o n a t UNFCCC CO P s 4/4

D E S C R I P TI O N Observing the diagram it is possible to observe the disengagement of the Canada from the climate negotiations. Scoring very high in the first COPs (starting from Berlin COP1, Canada remains in the top 6 until Bali COP13), Canada falls suddenly starting from COP14 Poznan in 2008. It is worth to remember that in 2006 Canada changed its Prime Minister (with Stephen Harper entering into office) and that in 2011 Canada left the Kyoto Protocol. A steep decline can be observed also for Germany after COP2 Geneva, but it this declined is explained by the increasing

E volut ion o f co u n t r y p ar tecipat io n s du rin g each C OP s in ENB negoti a ti on rep orts

LEGEND

COP # N City

Country #1

COP # N City

CO UN TR Y ’ S ACTI V I TY I N TH E D I S CUS S I O N Number of country’s mentions in the paragraphs ranked in decreasing order COP by COP

COP # N City

Country #3

Country #2

METER O F TH E D I S CUS S I O N Total number of paragraphs in the UNFCCC documents

Country #1

Country #2 Country #3 Country #3

Country #2 Country #1

importance of the European Community as the entity representing all European nations in negotiations.

COP 06 The H a gue COP 0 9 Mila n

INC 11 N ew Yo r k COP 04 Buenos Aires

COP 1 5 Copenhagen

COP 1 0 Buenos Aires

COP 19 Wa r s aw

COP 05 Bonn

C O P 03 Kyo t o

COP 07 Ma rra kech

C O P 02 Gen eva

COP 1 2 Na irob i

C OP 0 8 Ne w D e lhi

COP 1 3 B a li COP 1 4 Pozna n

COP 1 1 Mont re a l

COP 1 6 C a nc un

COP 1 8 Doha COP 1 7 D urb a n

COP 06bis Bonn

COP 01 Berlin

Canada

Canada

Germany

Canada Canada

Germany

Germany

Germany

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EMAPS

MAPPERS: Benjamin Ooghe-Tabanou, SciencesPo Kari De Pryck, SciencesPo Martina Elisa Cecchi, Density Design Nicolas Baya-Laffite, SciencesPo

EMAPS (Electronic Maps to Assist Public Science) is a collborative research project funded by the European Research Council to map controversies around climate change adaptation. For more info please visit http://www.emapsproject.com/blog/objectives.

Paolo Ciuccarelli, Density Design Richard Rodgers, UvA Tommaso Venturini, SciencesPo

20 ye a rs o f n e g o t i ati ons on ada pta t i o n a t UNFCCC CO P s 4/4

D E S C R I P TI O N The top 10 of the most active countries is stably occupied by a small group of countries: United States, China, Europe, Australia, Japan. In particular China never score lower than 3rd position; Europe never below the 4th position and Unites States never below the 6th position.

E volut ion o f co u n t r y p ar tecipat io n s du rin g each C OP s in ENB negoti a ti on rep orts

LEGEND

COP # N City

Country #1

COP # N City

CO UN TR Y ’ S ACTI V I TY I N TH E D I S CUS S I O N Number of country’s mentions in the paragraphs ranked in decreasing order COP by COP

COP # N City

Country #3

Country #2

METER O F TH E D I S CUS S I O N Total number of paragraphs in the UNFCCC documents

Country #1

Country #2 Country #3 Country #3

Country #2 Country #1

COP 06 The H a gue COP 0 9 Mila n

INC 11 N ew Yo r k COP 04 Buenos Aires

COP 1 0 Buenos Aires

COP 19 Wa r s aw

COP 05 Bonn

C O P 03 Kyo t o

China

COP 07 Ma rra kech

C O P 02 Gen eva

United States

COP 1 5 Copenhagen

COP 1 2 Na irob i

C OP 0 8 Ne w D e lhi

COP 1 3 B a li COP 1 4 Pozna n

COP 1 1 Mont re a l

COP 1 6 C a nc un

COP 1 8 Doha COP 1 7 D urb a n

China

COP 06bis Bonn

COP 01 Berlin United States

China

China United States

Europe

Europe

Europe

Europe United States Philippines

Japan Japan

Australia

Japan

Australia

Australia

Australia

Japan

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18 years of UNFCCC negotiations