Page 1

Tim Lundgren

Kevin Doyle

Realtor

Mortgage Advisor

Edina Realty 651-287-4046

The Doyle Group @ Mortgages Unlimited 612-701-4888

Monday Economic Newsletter June June 20, 2011 RETAIL SALES DON’T FALL AS FAR AND INFLATION IN CONTROL! Last week’s releases continued to show and economy that is slowing but not falling down and inflation that is creeping up but within a range that is ‘tolerable’. Manufacturing shown by Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization both fell a little. Housing Starts and Building permits were higher than the prediction, which was an increase over last month’s. Maybe this is a good sign for home builders. The big manufacturing news was the Philadelphia Fed Index falling 7.7 when a positive 7.0 was predicted. The Weekly Jobless Claims were less than expected but still over 400,000. The big news this week will be the Fed Meeting on Tuesday. Although the statement at the end of the meeting Wednesday will probably state, ‘the economy is slowing but shows signs of improving in the 4th quarter and inflation is being watched closing and we will act quickly if it becomes a problem’. There now the excitement of their statement is over and we can all relax. This week also has New and Existing Home Sales, both are expected to be less than last month. The last report Friday, Orders for Durable Goods are expected to show a slight improvement over last months loss of 3.6%.

SUMMER IS HERE, ENJOY!! “What was silent in the father speaks in the son, and often I found in the son the unveiled secret of the father.”

- Friedrich Nietzsche

A few quote’s from people that are in the know! “The economy isn’t growing strong enough to generate enough jobs to start really attacking the unemployment rate,” Ford Motor Co. (F) Controller Bob Shanks said during a conference this week. “Consumer confidence isn’t as strong as you’d like it to be.” “Claims are still high but it seems we’re heading in the right direction,” said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “Companies are not ready to ramp up hiring until they’re more confident the recovery is on firmer footing.” “Economic data have taken a decided turn for the worse, manufacturing in particular,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York. “Job growth is going to prove fairly disappointing. That means the consumer is not going to have enormous ammunition for spending.” “Our biggest concern of course is that the economy has slowed a little bit from where we thought it would be,” Ford Chief Executive Officer Alan Mulally said in a June 7 Bloomberg Television interview. “Having said that, most of the economists believe that it’s going to start picking up in the second half with everything that’s been put in place, both monetarily and fiscally.”


“The outlook is better for the second half,” said Maury Harris, chief economist at UBS Securities LLC in New York. “We’re getting relief from gas prices, and you’re also going to see auto output go back up again as we get a renewed inflow of auto parts from Japan.”

THIS WEEKS ECONOMIC RELEASES Date

ET

Economic Report

Tue. Jun 21

10:00 Existing Home Sales

For

Estimate Actual

Prior

Impact

May

4.78M

5.05M

Moderate

Wed. Jun 22 14:15 FOMC Meeting

Jun

Thu. Jun 23 8:30

6/18

418K

414K

Moderate

Thu. Jun 23 10:00 New Home Sales

May

305K

323K

Moderate

Fri. Jun 24

8:30

Gross Domestic Product

Q1

1.8%

1.8%

Moderate

Fri. Jun 24

8:30

GDP Chain Deflator

Q1

1.9%

1.9%

Moderate

Fri. Jun 24

8:30

Durable Goods Orders

May

1.0%

-3.6%

Moderate

Jobless Claims

HIGH

LAST WEEKS ECONOMIC RELEASES Date

ET

Economic Report

For

Estimate Actual

Prior

Impact

Tue. Jun 14

8:30

Producer Price Index

May

0.1%

0.2%

0.8%

Moderate

Tue. Jun 14

8:30

Core Producer Price Index

May

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

Moderate

Tue. Jun 14

8:30

Retail Sales

May

-0.7%

-0.2%

0.5%

HIGH

Tue. Jun 14

8:30

Retail Sales Ex Auto

May

0.2%

0.3%

0.6%

HIGH

Wed. Jun 15

8:30

Consumer Price Index

May

0.1%

0.2%

0.4%

HIGH

Wed. Jun 15

8:30

Core Consumer Price Index

May

0.1%

0.3%

0.4%

HIGH

Wed. Jun 15

8:30

Empire State Index

Jun

10.0

-7.79

11.9

HIGH

Wed. Jun 15

9:15

Industrial Production

May

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%

Moderate

Wed. Jun 15

9:15

Capacity Utilization

May

77.0%

76.7

76.9%

Moderate

Thu. Jun 16

8:30

Housing Starts

May

540K

560K

523K

Moderate

Thu. Jun 16

8:30

Building Permits

May

548K

612K

551K

Moderate

Thu. Jun 16

8:30

Jobless Claims

6/11

421K

414K

427K

Moderate

Thu. Jun 16

10:00

Philadelphia Fed Index

Jun

7.0

-7.7

3.9

HIGH

Fri. Jun 17

10:00

U of M Consumer Sentiment Index

Jun

73.5

71.8

74.3

Moderate

Fri. Jun 17

10:00

Index of Leading Indicators

May

0.4%

0.8%

-0.3%

Moderate

RATE SAMPLER (Rates subject to change) CONV 30 YEAR FIXED 4.625 % with no points APR 4.779%

FHA 30 YEAR FIXED 4.25% with no points APR 5.119%

5/1 FHA ARM LOAN 3.25% with no points APR 3.779%

THIS STATEMENT OF LOAN TERMS AND CONDITIONS IS NOT AN OFFER TO ENTER INTO AN INTEREST RATE OR DISCOUNT POINTS AGREEMENT, OR ANY SUCH OFFER MAY ONLY BE MADE PERSUANT TO SUBD. 3 & 4 OF MN STATUTE

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