SanTan Sun News - March 29 2020

Page 11

COMMUNITY NEWS

THE SUNDAY SANTAN SUN NEWS | MARCH 29, 2020

MARKET

from page 1

Chandler in a week. “The increase in listings is heavily skewed towards the mid-price end of the market,” it said. “Between (March) 15 and (March) 22, we see an overall increase of 11 percent in active listings without a contract.” “Of course,” it added, “we were starting from an excruciatingly low inventory of active listings between $150,000 and $300,000, so it is not hard to see a high percentage increase from such an abnormally low base.” Zillow noted an abrupt increase in mortgage rates and noted Bank of America's downgrading of some major holmebuilders – "suggesting the bank believes COVID-19 will harm consumer sentiment and slow home building." If that happens, it could put the brakes on a a frenzy of home construction in the Valley. Zillow Economist Jeff Tucker said, "The big question at the moment is to what degree measures being taken by local, state and national legislators will help limit the number of foreclosures in the months

JOBLESS

from page 10

Less clear is the financial implication on all of that to employers. By law, jobless benefits are paid for from a trust fund financed by a tax that all companies pay on the first $7,000 of each worker’s salary. Rates can range from less than 1 percent

ahead." Among the factors driving this inventory increase is the virtual collapse of the tourism and hospitality industry – which has pretty much wrecked, at least for now, the vacation rentals, Cromford said. Homeowners who only last month were enjoying the additional money they were making through Airbnb are quickly deciding it might be a better idea to put that same house up for sale before things get any worse, Cromford indicated. Moreover, it noted, “A huge amount of wealth has been destroyed on the stock market in the last month as the indexes return to 2016 levels. This leaves cash in short supply and some owners may need to turn fixed assets in liquid assets at short notice.” Social distancing also is playing a role, the report said, explaining: “Few normal buyers are willing to make an offer without viewing a property, though some investors may be tempted. … Buying and selling, as well as construction are likely to drop sharply, especially if a close-down is ordered by government, as it has in several states. "In fact, I am surprised that showings remain as high as they do. Some people

are clearly not taking the pandemic seriously enough, which is a big mistake that will cause the virus to spread more quickly and incur a higher mortality rate.” Chandler’s increase in homes for sale was the third highest among 17 Valley cities, Cromford noted, with 18 percent – behind Avondale (46 percent) and Gilbert (20 percent). Cromford and Zillow stressed that homeowners, for now, don’t have to worry that the rapid changes are affecting home values – which have hit almost unprecedented levels over the past year. “During the outbreak, there is little reason to suppose that house values will be significantly affected, up or down,” Cromford theorized, stressing it was hard to predict what will happen because the virus itself is unpredictable. "We will not know where we stand until the virus is peaked and the economy is well on the road to recovery," it said. But, it added, “sales volumes will inevitably collapse for a while until the outbreak dies down. It will not even be possible to calculate meaningful home price numbers if there are too few closed sales to measure effectively. That volume of sales activity will

depend on the duration of lockdowns – especially if they increase in severity. “Real estate activity will be increasingly limited, causing volumes to drop,” Cromford observed. “How far and fast they drop in Arizona will depend on decisions made at the state and county government levels." “It is possible that sales will cease closing if title companies and/or county recorder offices are temporarily closed,” it added, warning: "The impact of COVID-19 on the housing market has been relatively mild so far, but it is likely to become more dramatic over the next few months. The virus hit just as inventory inched up after months of shrinking. At the beginning of March, Cromford noted, “New listings are still arriving more slowly than normal and year-to-date we have experienced a shortfall of 10 percent compared to 2019. Supply continues to fall quickly across most of the market.” The report had noted prices “have not risen nearly enough to have any effect so far” on demand. Now, it said, “the housing market has reacted to what is happening” as “a powerful upward trend transformed into a sharp downward trend.”

for employers who have the best job history – meaning the fewest number of workers let go – to 5.4 percent for those with the highest number of layoffs. The average this year, according to DES, is 1.6 percent, down from 2.4 percent following the recession. That trust fund is supposed to be selfleveling. Both the measure approved by

lawmakers and the governor’s executive order contain provisions saying that an individual company’s experience in having to let go workers due to COVID-19 will not affect their premiums. But as the fund drains down, it will have to be replenished. That’s precisely what happened after the 2008 Great Recession where the fund, which had been at over $1 billion, went into the red by $600 million.

And that forced the state to actually borrow money from the federal government. All that meant not only higher premiums but an actual $42-per-employee surcharge approved by the Legislature to pay off the note. What happens this time depends on several factors. See

JOBLESS on page 16

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