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The Stillman Exchange The Official Business Publication of Seton Hall University


Made possible by the generous support of the O’Brien Family

U.S. Launches Section 301 Investigation

New Chinese Immigration Tide is on the Way By Yue Han

burdens or restricts U.S. commerce. In fact, all the countries support the renewable energy industry and give certain supports and subsidies to the concerning corporations by legislation. For example, the U.S. government has offered 46 billion U.S. dollars to its new energy industries as allowance. The wind power industry gets 30 billion from the 46 total, which is far more than the Chinese government gives its own corporations.

It is hard to make a living in a foreign country and not easy to blend into the American culture. And although many countries tighten the immigration policy in recent years, the number of Chinese applicants has been increasing instead of decreasing. The U.S. Department of State presents that there were 4,218 people applied for EB-5 visa from October 2008 to September 2009. About 70% of them are from China. The Canadian Immigration Department shows that in 2009, among the 2,055 investment migrants all around the world, 1,000 are Chinese. And also in Singapore, about 75% of all migrants are Chinese. A consultant from Beijing immigration agency says, in order to keep a higher employment rate and create more business oppotunities after the financial crisis, most developed countries have loosened their investment immigration policy. Meanwhile, countries like Canada and Australia are making their policies stricter. They will increase the required amount of applicants’ assets, which causes more people to want to take this last train before the announcement of those policies. Besides the main target countries, Australia, America and Canada, which immigrants still love to apply, South America and some small countries in Europe have become Chinese immigrants’ new favorite.

Continued on page 2...

Continued on page 2...

Photos courtesy of and designed by Herbert Chao Xu

On October 15th, 2010, U.S. Launches Section 301 Investigation into China’s Policies Affecting Trade & Investment in Green Technologies

By Stella Ni On October 15th, 2010, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) started its “Section 301” in response to the United Steelworkers Union, who sued China in the WTO over subsidies of its renewable-energy industry. This industry includes the solar energy, wind power, hydropower, battery and other industries. According to some procedures, the U.S. government will have 90 days to investigate and decide whether to turn over this petition to

WTO. If WTO accepts the petition of the United States, the U.S. government can punish high tariffs on Chinese corporations until the Chinese stop its subsidiaries. Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 (Pub.L. 93-618, 19 U.S.C. § 2411) authorizes the President to take all appropriate action, including retaliation, to obtain the removal of any act, policy, or practice of a foreign government that violates an international trade agreement or is unjustified, unreasonable, or discriminatory, and that

Cooling the Flow of “Hot Money” By Su Wang Foreign institutions will only be allowed to buy commercial property for their own use and it must be in the city in which they are registered. On November 13, The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have issued a notice outlining the rules that will also only allow foreign citizens living in China to buy one home for their own use. China has experienced a sharp rise in the inflow of so-called “hot money,” foreign capital entering the country supposedly seeking short-term profits. There is no formal definition of “hot money,” but the term is most commonly used in financial markets to refer to the flow of funds (or capital) from one country to another in order to earn a short-term profit on interest rate dif-

ferences and/or anticipated exchange rate shifts. These speculative capital flows are called “hot money” because they can move very quickly in and out of markets, potentially leading to market instability. While there may be some uncertainty about the precise amount of “hot money” flowing into China, there appears to be a general agreement as to why speculators are moving their capital into China. There are two key factors: (1) the relative interest rates between China and the United States; and (2) expectations of the future appreciation in the value of China’s currency, RMB. The reversal in the relative interest rates of the two nations has created an incentive for investors to move their deposits from the United States to China in order to earn a higher rate of return. In addition to the attraction of the

Photos courtesy of and designed by Herbert Chao Xu

Large amount of hot money is flowing into Chinese market

interest rate difference, speculators are moving “hot money” into China because of the general expectation that the RMB will continue appreciate in value against the U.S. dollar and other currencies. The combined effects of the interest rate differences and the expected appreciation of the RMB provide a strong incentive for “hot money” flows into

China. Under Chinese law, most foreign exchange entering the country must be converted into RMB. The large flow of “hot money” is causing a sharp rise in China’s money supply, resulting in inflation. The government action on limiting housing purchase is expected to cool the flow of “hot money”. But, in my opinion, “hot money” is hard to identify and track. This action will limit purchasing with normal purpose. And the restrictions on the flow of foreign capital into China are not good for China’s economic growth. Moreover, speculators may use various methods to circumvent Chinese laws and regulations. So, the restriction on housing purchase is only a temporary way to prevent “hot money” from entering the Chinese market. But it is not the most effective way to slow down the inflation. Contact Su Wang at

The Stillman Exchange


The Culture of Dai Minority By Yuanxin Hu

hemp, rubber, camphor and a wide variety of fruits. Amazing!! The other I am a new graduate student in parts of food habits are similar with Seton Hall University. The most spe- the Han people. cial background for me is that I am a Habits and Customs: Dai people. Let me introduce some A water –splashing festival totally different things about my life. The Dai have their own tradiAs we all know, there are 56 national- tional holidays to celebrate a number ities in China. The Dai, one of the of Buddhist holidays and Buddhist largest, are nearly 1.1 million people. ceremonies and rituals. The festival Dai people is one of the 56 ethnic involves two parts: making offerings group recognized by the People’s of food and flowers to Buddha at both Republic of China, living in the temples and family altars in people’s Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous home and water splashing. It takes Prefecture, both are in southern three days. The celebration was recYunnan province, which is one of ognized by a variety of activities, China’s most diverse provinces, with including singing and peacock danc25 official ethnic ing, boat racing, groups. They are exhibiting closely related to K o n g m i n g the Thai people lanterns, parades who are from a and fairs. During majority in the festival, Dai Thailand. Mostly people sweep the Thai people and floors all the Dai have a lot of around. The door similarities in of every house is many fields like decorated with language, customs, multicolored and religion. pieces of paper. In Food the morning all the For a long villagers dress in time the Dais has beautiful clothes grown rice as their to come to the big main crop, and Dai park or go to they has developed Photos courtesy of and the temple to wora rather complete, designed by Herbert Chao Xu ship Buddha. They intensive farming sit around the Water–splashing festival system and gained pagodas to listen rich experience in irrigation. Rice is respectfully to scripture and historical the staple food. The Dais in Dehong legends and pray for the good weathprefer dry rice, while those in er and harmony in life. The most Xishuangbanna like sticky rice. All important and popular event- water love sour and hot flavors. In addition splashing is held in the afternoon. to beef, chicken and duck, they enjoy Everyone carries fresh water from the fish and shrimp. Cabbages, carrots, river to the squares. They gather along bamboo shoots and beans are among roadsides and in public parks and the popular vegetables. The Dais also squares armed with buckets and loves wine, liquor, and betel nuts. In basins of water or carrying squirt most areas, the development of the guns, to drench each other in wishes economy depends on agricultural. for good luck and a happy new year. There are numerous local products At night, Dai community holds the including rice, sugar cane, coffee, night party in the front of the temple. We dance and sing along the tradiThe Stillman Exchange tional folk song. The Water Splashing Festival vividly exhibits the Dai’s The Official Business Publication of homage to water and the culture of Seton Hall University music and dance, food, and costumes. It is also a cultural bridge between Editorial Board Xishuangbanna and Southeast Asian countries that share the same festive Managing Editor Ian Mehok culture of water-splashing. Assistant Managing Editors Margaret Reilly Li Duan Special Edition English Editor Margaret Reilly Special Edition Chinese Editor Herbert Chao Xu Special Edition Photographer Simon Xin He Faculty Advisors Michael Reuter, M.B.A. Jason Yin, Ph.D. E-mail Website About The Stillman Exchange is the first undergraduate-published business newspaper in the United States. The Stillman Exchange is published on a bi-weekly basis from the Center for Securities Trading and Analysis in the W. Paul Stillman School of Business at Seton Hall University.

Contact Yuanxin Hu at

U.S. Launches Section 301 Investigation ...continued from page 1 The subsidy policy of new energy is totally different between the two countries. The United States provide a great amount deal of funds to company’s R&D period and less money for the industrialized phase. However, Chinese government does just the opposite, as it puts more efforts on how to make products into industrialization. It is inappropriate for the U.S. government to take a partial look at how much money China has put into its industrialized stage. It is also improper for the U.S. to come to the conclusion that China overprotects its renewable energy industry, gives the extreme low loan rate to decrease its products’ price and thus prevents U.S. products to get into the world markets. What’s more, when the U.S. started the “Section 301”and criticized China for overprotecting its green energy industry, it is the U.S. herself who offers more than 60 billion U.S. dollars to her own corporations and limits only buying U.S. products when buying some renewable energy products. It’s obviously that the U.S. government itself uses the biased and overprotective trade policy, not China. Besides, it’s a sensitive time to start this “Section 301” because November 2 was the mid-term elections. It’s probably that the U.S.

One of China's private credit rating agencies, Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. LTD, has released its U.S. track rating report on Nov 9. The report lowered the U.S. credit rating from AA to A+, including the sovereign and foreign currency credit rating, and it suggested the outlook is negative. Dagong Global believes that the new round of quantitative easing monetary policy that United States is launching states deterioration of the actual solvency and government debt will. This is the first launch of Dagong Global’s unique default rating criteria, Currency Stability Analysis, since releasing credit rating of 50 countries on July 11 this year. This method is used to track record and rate the country that depreciates its own currency to

wants to find a scapegoat for its sluggish economy, high unemployment rate and lower gains from its export plan. In order to ease the dissatisfaction from its citizens and to enhance political vote, it is better for the US government to blame “made in China” or “the exchange rate” instead of herself. Last but not least, I think “Opportunity lies in challenge”. It is unreasonable and unhelpful to trigger the exchange rate battle or the trading fight for bilateral countries at this moment. As the two of the most influential countries in the world, both the United States and China should bear the responsibilities for the healthy economy and make positive contributions to the development of the whole world. It’s a good time for the two countries to learn from these trade fictions. We should communicate frequently and negotiate calmly with each other. It is critical for both countries to adjust their own economic structure and find a right way to develop. In order to have win-win, both countries should seek a sound way to overcome any obstacles encountered together and thus keep both sides developing towards a sound way and make contributions to the whole world. Contact Stella Ni at

New Chinese Immigration Tide is on the Way ...continued from page 1 Why do Chinese love to immigrate into foreign countries? Let’s see some facts. In Shenzhen, housing space costs 20,000 Yuan (about 2,985 USD) per square meter (10.764 square feet). That means buying a 120 square meter apartment and renovating it will cost 2,700,000 Yuan (about 402,985 USD). However, it only costs 500,000 Yuan (about 74,627 USD) to invest in real estate in Malaysia and immigrate there. As matter of fact, the price stated above is very common in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai. Most applicants are in middleclass. They graduates from top tier universities, speaking fluent English, having 3-5 years working experience. For them, immigration is a long-term strategy because they have to start over in a new country. The real motivation of having a nationality is to provide a

Chinese Rating Agency Lowered the U.S Credit Rating By Yiping Chu


shift crisis to other countries. Dagong Global announces the basis of the credit rating going down for the United States: the United States Government does not reflect the overall situation from a strategic national economic development and management issues, so it is difficult to fundamentally change the passive situation of economic development; because of the U.S. model of economic development decision, the credit crisis is far from over, the U.S. economy will enter a long period of recession; economic downturn will lead to an increased risk in the financial system, depreciation of the dollar trends has been weakened the capability of attracting the return value of the dollar capital transfer; a new round of liquidity injections will not help curb the growth trends on the fundamental

better platform for their children. They hope their children could continue their success in foreign countries just as in China. In addition, the benefits of law, education, high welfare, low tax threshold, clean air, and safe food which make their life easier in their old age are also their consideration. More and more Chinese feel that immigration is only a backup plan. Most of them still choose to live in China. Having the foreign nationality and knowing about foreign culture bring them lots of benefits when they are doing international business. The foreign passport also brings convenience to them. One day in the future, when Chinese government admits dual nationality, they can make their dreams “to be a Chinese” come true. Contact Yue Han at burden and debt expansion of the federal government deficit in the long term; taking real depreciation of the dollar only states that the actual debt servicing capacity of U.S government has reached the brink of collapse, this behavior has seriously damaged the interests of creditors, the world will thus usher in a period of sharp adjustment in the pattern of interests. U.S. Federal Reserve Board recently announced the launch of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy and decided to buy 600 billion in long-term U.S. treasury bonds to stimulate the U.S. economic recovery before the end of June 2011. This caused widespread concern around the world economy, because it will depreciate the dollar, push up commodity prices and let uncontrolled "hot money" flow into emerging markets. Contact Yiping Chu at


The Stillman Exchange The Official Business Publication of Seton Hall University 西 东 大 学 商 学 院 官 方 出 版

2010年11月17日 星期三 第5期

Made possible by the generous support of the O’Brien Family


中国移民新浪 潮前进进行时 记者 韩月

能源企业提供了46亿美元补助, 其中美国的风电企业获得了其 中30亿美元的补贴,远远大于 我国对于风电行业的支持。由 于中美之间实行了不同的新能 源补贴政策:美国是在企业研 发新能源的初期就给予了大量、 及时的资金补贴,对于后期产 品上市、电压上网等给予的补 贴较少;而中国政府仅在产业 化的道路上给予企业一定的支 持,但是对于前期研发阶段提 供的补贴没有像美国政府补贴 的那么多。

即使在异国生存很艰难而且不 容易融入美国文化,即使近年来很 多国家收紧移民政策,中国申请者 不减反增。美国国务院最新资料显 示:2008年10月至2009年9月的上一 联邦财政年度获批的EB-5类签证移 民总数为4218人,其中七成左右主 要来自中国。加拿大移民局数据显 示:2009年,加国投资移民全球目 标人数为2055人,中国的名额占了 1000名左右。 一个北京移民中介的移民顾问 说,金融危机后许多发达国家为了 保障本国公民就业率、发展本国经 济,放宽投资移民政策,与此同时, 由于加拿大、澳大利亚等国家的移 民政策将比过去更为严格,要求资 产的数目正在上升,导致很多人希 望在政策正式出台前搭上末班车。 除传统的澳大利亚、美国、加拿大 三大主流移民目的国之外,南美、 欧洲等地的许多较小国家也成为中 国大陆移民的“新宠”目的地。 为什么中国人热衷于移民?先 看看中国的实际情况。在深圳,房 价2万元人民币(约2,985美金)一 平方米(合10.764平方英尺),这 就意味着买一套120平米的公寓就要 花240万元人民币(合358,209美金), 加上装修总共要270万元人民币(合 402,985美金)。然而,在马来西亚投 资房产只要50万元人民币(合74,627 美金)而且还能获得移民身份。实 际上,上述价格在中国一线城市, 如北京、上海是很普遍的。

未完... 详见第4页

未完... 详见第4页

照片转自昵图网 由 徐超 编辑


记者 倪嘉翊 2010年10月15日,美国贸 易代表团办公室表示应美国钢 铁工人联合会申请,启动中国 对清洁能源行业补贴行为的301 调查。他们表示,此次调查将 涉及到中国的太阳能、风能、 电池以及节能汽车等多个行业。 根据程序,美国政府将有90天 的时间进行调查以决定是否将此 案上交给世界贸易组织(WTO)。 如果WTO最终支持美国的诉求, 美国政府就可以对清洁能源产 品实施惩罚性关税,直至中国 政府中止补贴。

301调 查 是 指 美 国 1974年 贸易法第301条款,后经“1979 年贸易协定法”和“1984年贸 易和关税法”分别补充修正。 该条款主旨为授权总统对于他 国不公平贸易措施采取适当措 施,以维护美国在国际贸易中 的利益。主要措施为停止、撤 回、禁止适用或不给予该国最 惠国待遇;提高该国产品的入 美关税或予以进口限制。 事实上,世界各国都对新 能源等新兴产业通过立法给予 了一定的扶持和补贴。拿美国 举例,今年1-9月份,美国已经 通过现金支付方式给本国的新

限购旨在降温“热钱” 记者 王肃 境外机构将只能在注册城市 购买办公所需的非住宅房屋。 11月13日,住建部与国家外 汇局联合发布了上述规定,同时 也只允许境外个人在境内购买至 多一套用于自住的住房。 “热钱”正在大量涌入中国, 境外资本的进入是为了寻求短期 利润。 “热钱”没有正式的定义, 但这个词语通常用于金融市场, 指利用利差和/或预期的汇率波动 而获得短期利润的由一个国家到 另一个国家的资金流。这些不确 定的资金流被称作“热钱”,因

为它们会迅速的进出市场,潜在 的影响市场稳定性。 涌入中国的“热钱”的确切 数目也许不确定,但对于为什么 境外机构将它们的资本转移到中 国,却有一致的观点。有两个因 素起到了决定作用:(1)中国和美 国相对的利率;(2)对未来人民币 将继续升值的预期。 中美两国利率的差异扩大是 照片转自羊城晚报 使投资者将他们的存款由美国转 由 徐超 编辑 向中国以获取更高回报率的一个 大量热钱正在涌入中国 诱因。 除了利差的吸引,对于人民 中国法律要求,大多数外国 币对美元或其他货币将持续升值 的普遍期望,也是这些“热钱” 货币在进入中国时必须转换为人 民币。这个大的“热钱”流正在 涌入中国的一个诱因。

造成中国货币供应的飞速增长, 从而加剧通货膨胀。 政府在购买房屋上的限制是 为了给“热钱”流降温,但是, 在我看来,“热钱”是很难被鉴 别和追踪的。政府的该行为同时 也会对正常目的的购房者带来影 响。并且宽泛的限制国外资本进 入中国,对于正在成长中的中国 经济市场并不是一件好事。况且, 这些投机商们可以采取各种方式 来绕过中国的法律法规。 总而言之, 在购买住房上的 限制仅仅是暂时性地去防止“热 钱”流入中国市场。事实上,它 并不是一种控制和降低通货膨胀 最有效的手段。

联系 王肃

The Stillman Exchange


特色的傣族文化 的节日,也是云南少数民族中 影响面最大,参加人数最多的 作为一名在西东大学学习 节日。人们相聚在一起共同欢 的研究生,我很高兴为大家介 度节日,举办各种各样的庆祝 绍关于自己的民族--傣族。正 活动包括:寺庙祭祀祈求平 如我们都知道,在中国有56个 安 ,唱歌,跳孔雀舞,赛龙 民族。傣族,作为56个少数民 舟,点孔明灯笼,游行等。节 族之一,大约有116万人。大 日前夕,人们清扫家里内外, 部分傣族人生活在位于云南南 在门上装饰着五颜六色的装饰 部 的 德 宏 傣 族 景 颇 族 自 治 品。早晨,所有的村民穿着漂 州 。而我的家乡--云南,是 亮的衣服来到傣族的传统寺庙 25个少数民族的聚集地,也是 拜佛。人们围坐在宝塔前,恭 拥有少数民族最多的省份。傣 敬地,虔诚地聆听佛经和以前 族和泰国人在生活方式和宗教 的历史传说,跪拜佛像,祈求 五谷丰登和期盼未来和谐美好 习惯上有很多相似之处。 的生活。佛 寺礼毕,青 饮食习惯 年男女退出 长期以 并互相泼水 来傣族人以 为戏,于是 大米为主食。 群众性的泼 在德宏傣族 水活动就开 喜欢吃大米, 始了。人们 而在西双版 用铜钵、脸 纳大部分人 盆以至水桶 喜欢食用糯 盛水,拥出 米。所有的 大街小巷, 傣族人都喜 嬉戏追逐, 爱酸辣口味。 逢人便泼。 食物种类极 民间认为, 为繁多,以 这 是吉祥的 酸 辣 味 为 主 照片转自 由 徐超 编辑 水, 祝 福 的 的牛肉,羊 水,可以消 肉,鱼肉都 傣族传统节日--泼水节 灾除病,所 是他们的最 以人们尽情地 爱。傣族人 也爱饮酒,和吃槟榔。在当地 泼,尽情地浇,不论泼者还是 少数民族地区,经济发展很大 被泼者,虽然从头到脚全身湿 程度上依赖于农业。在傣族聚 透,但还是异常高兴。除了泼 居地盛产大米,甘蔗,咖啡, 水,晚上还会举办群众性的歌 麻,橡胶,樟脑和各种各样的 舞活动,青年男女穿上节日盛 装,来到广场,围成一圈,合 热带水果。 着芒锣象脚鼓点翩翩起舞。 风俗习惯-泼水节 傣族有自己的传统节日联系 胡元馨 泼水节。泼水节是傣族最隆重 记者 胡元馨

The Stillman Exchange The Official Business Publication of Seton Hall University

编辑组 总编辑 Ian Mehok 副总编 Margaret Reilly Li Duan 特刊英文编辑 Margaret Reilly 特刊中文编辑 Herbert Chao Xu 特刊摄影师 Simon Xin He 指导教师 Michael Reuter, M.B.A. Jason Yin, Ph.D. 电子邮箱 网址 关于 The Stillman Exchange是美国第一份 由大学生出版的商务报纸。 The Stillman Exchange是在西东大学 W. Paul 斯德尔曼商学院证券交易分 析中心编辑并出版的双周刊报纸。

2010年11月17日 星期三

美对华清洁能源启动301调查 ...接第3页 美国政府却选择了忽略自身 在研发阶段给予企业的补贴而避重 就轻地挑选了中国在产业化道路上 给予企业的基本帮助,谴责中国政 府为本国新能源企业提供低利率的 银行贷款,造成中国产品低价。为 美国相关产业产品进入世界市场带 来了重重阻力,大大地降低了美国 产品的国际竞争力。值得一提的是: 就在美国对华开展301调查、指责 中国政府对新能源扶持过多的同 时,美国政府对清洁产业的补贴高 达600亿美元,在美国刺激经济法 案中,更是列明了“购买某些美国 的清洁能源产品,只限购美国 货 ”。由此可见,美国的贸易保护 主义早已抬头,对于中国的贸易保 护指责更是缺乏可信度。 另外,由于301调查的时间正 值中期选举的政治敏感时期,让人 不得不怀疑美国启动该调查的政治 目的。随着美国中期选举的到来, 奥巴马政府在年初提出的振兴美国

出口计划实施效果甚微,并且美国 经济复苏缓慢,失业率仍保持高 位,为平息国人的不满和提高自己 的选票,这时人民币汇率和“中国 制造”就成了美国国内问题的“替 罪羊”。 最后,我认为“机会与挑战 并存”。在全球经济缓慢复苏之 际,大打汇率战或是贸易战都是不 利于世界经济发展的。作为世界大 国,中美双方应该肩挑国际责任, 为推动世界经贸向良性方面发展做 出积极的贡献。近期一系列的中美 贸易摩擦对于两国而言正是一次良 好的学习机会。当遇到某些纷争 时,双方应积极展开对话,冷静协 商处理分歧。从根本层面上寻找适 合本国国情的经济发展道路、加快 自身经济结构调整。本着互利共赢 的宗旨,双方应该共同携手克服眼 前的困难,为全球贸易体系的健康 发展和完善,贡献出一份应尽的义 务。

联系 倪嘉翊

中 国移 民 新浪 潮前 进 进行 时 ...接第3页

活更加舒适也是他们的出发点。 越来越多的中国人认为移民 大部分申请者是中国的中产 只是一条后路。大部分人还是选择 阶级,意味着毕业于名牌大学,精 回中国居住。拥有外国国籍并了解 通英语,有三到五年的工作经验。 国外的文化,为他们进行国际贸易 对于他们来说,移民是长期战略, 提供了很多好处。国外护照提供的 因为他们要在一个新的国家重新 便利对于他们也很重要。也许将来 开始。拥有一个国籍可以为他们的 的某一天,当中国政府承认双重国 子女提供更好的平台,这是他们真 籍的时候,他们可以实现“成为一 实的拼搏动力。此外健全的法律、 个中国人”的梦想。 高质量的教育、低征税点、健康的 联系 韩月 空气、安全的食品使他们的养老生

中 国 评 级机 构 下 调 美国 信 用 等 级 记者 初益平 大公国际资信评估有限公 司,一家中国著名的私营信用评 级机构,在9日发布了美国跟踪 评级报告。在这份报告中大公国 际将美国的本、外币国家信用等 级由AA调降至A+,展望均调整 为负面。报告里之处美国推出新 一轮量化宽松货币政策表明了美 国实际偿债能力恶化和政府偿债 意愿急剧下降。 这是大公国际自今年7月11 日发布50个国家的信用等级后, 首次启动其独有的违约评级标 准--币值稳定性分析,针对有意 识地贬值本国货币转嫁危机的国 家进行跟踪评级。 报告中下调美国信用等级的 依据为:美国政府没有从战略全 局上反思国家经济发展和管理模 式问题,很难从根本上改变经济

发展的被动局面;由美国经济发 展模式所决定,信用危机远没有 结束,美国经济将步入一个长期 衰退期;经济持续低迷导致金融 体系风险上升,美元贬值趋势将 使金融体系吸引美元资本回流的 价值转移能力受到削弱;新一轮 的流动性注入无助于从根本上遏 制联邦政府财政赤字和债务负担 在长期内的扩大和增长趋势;美 国政府采取美元贬值的实质是其 实际债务偿付能力已经到了崩溃 的边缘,因而从国家意愿上通过 贬值行为减少债务,此举严重损 害了债权人利益,世界将因此迎 来一个利益格局急剧调整的时 期。 美国联邦储备委员会近日宣 布推出第二轮量化宽松货币政 策,决定到2011年6月底前购买 6000亿美元的美国长期国债,以 进一步刺激美国经济复苏。此举

引发全球各经济体广泛关注,因 为它将使美元贬值,推升大宗商 品价格,导致不可控的“热钱” 流入新兴市场。 我认为美国信用危机的发生 和发展过程是其经济体制矛盾长 期积累的结果。通过大规模印制 发行美元仅能在一定程度上减缓 其债务负担,但并不能真正的解 决问题,而由此带来的美元地位 和国家信用的下降将在很大程度 上阻碍美国赖以生存的债务收入 通道。在各种影响美国的经济要 素没有明确变好的前景下,美国 有可能会扩大使用其宽松货币政 策,继续损害债权人的利益。鉴 于美国在未来1至2年内国家偿债 能力方面的不可测风险较多,所 以大公国际给予美国本、外币信 用等级的展望均为负面。

联系 初益平

The Stillman Exchange November 17, 2010 - Special Edition