CHAPTER 3 San Diegans Make Choices about Their Future
Current Plan Projections
Future Market Demand
Rural Standard single-family home (6,000-12,000 sq ft lot)
Compact single-family home (<6,000 sq ft lot)
Townhomes Mid- or high-rise
Balancing Housing Stock with Future Demand Today, the housing mix in San Diego County is approximately 55% singlefamily homes, 16% townhomes, and 29% other multi-family. To meet the housing mix called for by current city and county plans, 80% of all new housing built in the San Diego region would need to be in townhomes, apartments and condos, rather than single-family homes. Housing demand projections based on future demographic changes, however, call for much fewer apartments and condominiums, with much of the housing demand being for townhomes and compact single-family homes. The scenario modeling demonstrates that it is possible to allow the market to meet the actual demand without sacrificing other goals such as protecting open space, reducing travel times, and limiting greenhouse gas emissions.
Our Greater San Diego Vision
Getting to the Preferred Scenario Scenario B differs significantly from current city and county projections of where housing and jobs will be in the future. The majority of new growth in existing plans is projected for the south county and includes a vast amount of redevelopment in existing communities, primarily in the city of San Diego. Scenario B includes significant, but reduced, redevelopment in the south county and the city of San Diego, and increases new growth in the north county, particularly near the Sprinter rail line. Scenario B matches projections of housing people will want and be able to afford, resulting in 52% of new units as multi-family (apartments, condominiums, and townhomes or row houses). In Scenario B, 48% of future housing would be in the form of singlefamily detached homes, with roughly half of that on small lots (under 6,000 square feet per lot). By comparison, current plans designate 80% of new housing units as multi-family (apartments, condominiums, and townhomes or row houses). This means that only 20% would be single-family detached homes. A mismatch between the housing being built and what people want can cause prices of the desired units to increase dramatically. By matching housing to market demand, Scenario B consumes significantly less land than what has been the case for the last 30 years, and even less than what is currently projected for the future, with only 1% of growth in the form of very large lot, rural housing. Getting from current plans and projections to something more like Scenario B will take coordinated effort and regional cooperation to ensure that all local plans and approvals, when aggregated, provide what people want and can afford. When some communities resist growth, or resist a particular type of growth, burdens can be created for other communities and for the region as a whole.
Published on Jul 9, 2012
San Diego County is a vast area of more than4,500 square miles, larger than the states of RhodeIsland and Delaware combined. The region isho...