further reduction in battery costs and increases in range should make it more cost-effective to buy an EV in the next few years. Second is range anxiety, which is why the proponents and the Feds want to significantly increase the number of charging stations in the U.S. Third is the issue of how much an EV really reduces emissions if the electrical grid is coal-based in a particular area. I saw a recent article that said in those areas, the net reduction in emissions is only 15 percent. In other areas, the impact on emissions is much higher. In other words, the grid has to be updated and there has to be investment in cleaner energy sources to the grid to achieve the full benefit of EVs for climate change.
What is one key thing parking, transportation, and mobility pros need to know about EVs and their impact in the future? What accommodations and changes should be made now to current and near-term operations?
Don’t try to design for a lot of cars to be recharged simultaneously. Charging needs and delivery modes will evolve in the future, and power management will reduce the power draw at any one time. Provide 2 percent of spaces with charging stations today, with infrastructure for 10 percent of cars charging simultaneously in the future. Double that for residential, and double both again for California and other areas with much higher than normal EV penetration.
JOHN HAMMERSCHLAG President Hammerschlag & Co., Inc.
What are the barriers to greater adoption, e.g. cost, technology, etc.? Are there innovations happening to address these barriers?
Barriers include cost, battery capacity, charging speed, and national infrastructure. Innovations are happening, but they aren’t here quite yet: battery costs
have been dropping and charging stations are more sophisticated. Conversion of fleets to EV will result in lower emissions. It’s apparent that there is a need for a national grid of charging stations that will charge a vehicle in no more time than it takes to fill a vehicle with fossil fuel and at lower cost.
MATTHEW KENNEDY, CAPP Executive Director New Brunswick Parking Authority
What are your predictions on the adoption rates and percentages of EVs on the road in the short- to medium- and longer term for both privately-owned vehicles and fleets? And what happens with mass transit?
In the short term, privately-owned EVs will stay under 3 percent of the American new vehicle market, and there will only be incremental growth in the longer term. Within the next decade, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will remain a very small percentage of privately-owned vehicles in America; however, hybrid electric vehicles and conventionally fueled partial zero emission vehicles (PZEVs) will experience substantial growth. Even given the likelihood of postponed mandates in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, PZEVs, trailblazed by Subaru in recent years, will be become a dominant consumer choice in the market for new conventional vehicles throughout the nation. The San Francisco Bay Area will continue to lead the country in EV adoption, and BEVs 38 PARKING & MOBILITY / AUGUST 2021 / PARKING-MOBILITY.ORG
will see noteworthy increases in major cities nationwide. Public transit and fleets will continue their widespread nationwide conversion to electric, natural gas, and propane, resulting in game-changing reductions in city air pollution. Mass transit ridership, including public buses and trains, along with ride-share services, will see a measurable, long-enduring loss in passenger share as many people will switch to solo occupancy driving in the wake of the pandemic.
What are the barriers to greater adoption? Are there innovations happening to address these barriers?
Acquisition cost will remain the highest barrier, especially in the aftermath of the collapse in purchasing power resulting from the pandemic. The overall increase in EV adoption will be incremental, allowing the nationwide grid ample time to adapt and handle the associated charging needs.