Page 38

ELECTRIFYING

JAMES C. ANDERSON

Market Development Manager—Building Solutions Master Builders Solutions U.S. LLC CO-CHAIR, IPMI’S PLANNING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION COMMITTEE

What are your predictions on the adoption rates and percentages of EVs on the road in the short- to medium- and longer term for both privately-owned vehicles and fleets? And what happens with mass transit?

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, global electric vehicle sales are projected to reach 6.2 million units by 2024, which they report is almost three times the volume sold in 2019. In 2019, there were approximately 109 million registered vehicles in the U.S. While consumer EV adoption rates are difficult to forecast, it would appear that in the next three years, the EV adoption rate of privately-owned vehicles will remain a relatively small but growing segment of the market. In the near term, forecasts are similar for fleet registered vehicles. The eight- to 10-year horizon is another story as we approach 2030. The major auto manufacturers are investing heavily with electrification designs and production of their vehicle offerings, which will be evident in EV car sales and adoption rates. Mass transit, mostly defined as e-buses, is reportedly the fastest-growing segment of the worldwide EV market, though adoption within the U.S. has been slow outside of a few metropolitan areas. Influenced by clean technology, political infrastructure support, and governmental subsidies, expect this segment to gain significant momentum by the end of the decade.

What are the barriers to greater adoption? Are there innovations happening to address these barriers?

The primary barriers to EV adoption today are vehicle affordability, the ability/infrastructure to recharge, and driving distance per charge. The automakers and battery innovators/manufacturers are working to address these battery challenges and are investing heavily in research and development to enable a practical solution. Renewable energy demand will certainly grow with the increasing advent of the EV market. State power authorities recognize this emerging transportation trend and are assessing their plans for, and accommodation of, this grid capacity challenge. Look no further than Amazon’s net-zero commitment to sustainability and their plan to electrify all of their 100,000 unit delivery fleet vehicles by 2030. This will require dedicated vehicle recharging hubs and power consumption planning by all the entities utilizing this means of energy regeneration. This translates to renewable energy infrastructure planning today. Recognize and plan for this emerging technological and societal change. If planning a new structured parking facility with a 50+ year investment life, assure your stakeholders and designers are addressing all of the sustainable carbon-reducing options necessary to accommodate EVs while reducing your structures’ environmental footprint.

JOHN K. BUSHMAN CEO Walker Consultants

CO-CHAIR, IPMI’S PLANNING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION COMMITTEE

What are your predictions on the adoption rates and percentages of EVs on the road in the short- to medium- and longer term for both privately-owned vehicles and fleets? And what happens with mass transit?

EVs are still less than 1 percent of the cars on the road today in the U.S. We expect them to be less than 2.5 percent of the vehicles on the road by 2025, and 7.5 percent by 2030, even if they approach 25 percent of sales by 2030. The on-the-road numbers simply lag by that much. Double those figures, however, in California

and other cities where there is an aggressive plan to ­encourage EVs.

What are the barriers to greater adoption? Are there innovations happening to address these barriers?

Right now, the biggest barrier is cost of the new vehicle, even with federal tax rebates and other incentives. Non-plug-in hybrids still outsell plug-ins two to one. We are, however, approaching breakeven on return on the incremental investment in a plug-in EV, and

36 PARKING & MOBILITY / AUGUST 2021 / PARKING-MOBILITY.ORG SOURCE: IPMI’S MARKET TRENDS AND RECOVERY SURVEY