North Scottsdale - Lifestyle Collection Luxury Property Report

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NORTH SCOT TSDA LE LUXU RY PR OP E RT Y R E P O RT 1

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PHONE | 602.603.0708 LIFESTYLECOLLECTIONRE.COM ©2017 The Lifestyle Collection


OVERVIE W

Snapshot and Sales Overview WELCOME TO THE FIRST CUSTOM REPORT ON THE NORTH SCOTTSDALE LUXURY REAL ESTATE MARKET. Our goal is to provide an ongoing perspective on what is occurring in the luxury market in our area, as well as some general information on trends in the luxury real estate market overall.

If you are interested in a different area, alternative price points, or seek information on a project not outlined in this report, call us at 602.603.0708 or send an email to jordan@lifestylecollectionre.com. We can produce detailed and customized statistics on any neighborhood within Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek or Carefree.

This report focuses on homes listed or sold for more than $1 million. We also provide general real estate insight on the overall Phoenix metro area. We cover market activity from January 1, 2017 through August 31, 2017 as well as a market snapshot on August 31, 2017.

Jordan Ayan, Licensed RealtorÂŽ Member - Luxury Home Marketing Association

The area associated with this report encompasses zip codes 85255, 85259, 85260, 85262, 85266, 85377.

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MAR KET S UM M A RY

Sellers

“FOR SELLERS, PATIENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME” For many luxury sellers in our current market, patience is the name of the game. While the luxury market has improved, there is a tremendous amount of inventory available. Demand for luxury property is not keeping up with the number of properties available. The current luxury inventory would last 370 days at the current rate of sales. Inventory of properties listed for $2 Million and above would last for 611 days. While inventory days are down slightly from the previous six-month period, it is not dramatic, and this number is not expected to drop significantly in the next quarter. When cooler weather returns to the valley, the last quarter of the year should see a demand increase as expected, but supply increases then as well. Based on this

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recent data, we don’t see any significant reduction of market inventory in the near term.

“ELEVEN LUXURY HOMES IN THE MARKET SOLD IN UNDER A WEEK FOR 98 PERCENT OF LIST PRICE”

To provide perspective, inventory levels in the entire Phoenix metro area is at a record low of only 63 days, and in lower price ranges it is an intense seller’s market, with multiple offers received for properties.

Pricing a home correctly in this market space is more important than ever. The median price of luxury homes in the North Scottsdale/Carefree market is $1.755 Million. Homes that are priced correctly and show well will entice buyers.

Success in selling a luxury home requires diligent and creative marketing. Success is defined as a completed sale after a home is listed on the MLS. While homes priced from $1 Million to $2 Million are slightly ahead of the last six-month period, it is still low with only 57 percent of luxury homes being successfully sold after being listed. In the $2 Million plus market, the success rate is down from last year and rests at only 48 percent. Again, as a point of comparison, the entire Phoenix metro area sales success rate across all price points on non-distressed sales is 81 percent.

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Eleven homes in this market niche sold in under a week, and 38 homes sold in under thirty days, with prices ranging from just over $1 Million dollars to $6.5 Million. These homes sold on average for 98 percent of their original asking price, indicating they were priced correctly and were ready for market. In reviewing those listings, they were either superior in appearance and/or location or offered an additional element that made them more desirable (for example, financing carried by owner).


“Pricing a home correctly in this market space is more important than ever” “PROPERTIES REQUIRING A YEAR TO SELL, SOLD ON AVERAGE FOR 90 PERCENT OF THEIR LIST PRICE” Properties on the market for approximately one year that ultimately sold, closed on average for 90 percent of their original list price. Setting a price that is on target is one of the most crucial decisions a seller can define with their Realtor®. The starting point for most of us in the real estate profession is to compile a list of similar properties that have sold. Luxury properties, however, are often hard to accurately price using this method because of some of their unique attributes. While this data can be an incredibly helpful guide, we believe that in the luxury market, a professionally appraised property can provide outstanding insight into a home’s market value.

“APPRAISALS PROVE A USEFUL TOOL IN PRICING AND NEGOTIATING” Luxury homes are similar to jewels with many small nuances that can have a significant impact on either increasing or decreasing the value. A highly qualified luxury appraiser can help you understand those elements for your property to help you gain true insight on value.

work with a top appraiser who has accurately appraised and priced the most expensive homes sold in the Valley, and we recommend a pre-listing appraisal on a luxury home.

“SILVERLEAF LEADS THE FIELD IN PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT”

This appraisal is different than the type a bank might conduct, where the key objective is for a property to be able to support the mortgage that is applied for, and can be a valuable tool, both for pricing and negotiating a sale. Additionally, if you do have an appraisal conducted, it is not public information and does not need to be disclosed to any potential buyers.

Cost per square foot, while not the best measure when comparing luxury properties, does serve as a good benchmark to compare neighborhoods. As you will see in this report, in the North Scottsdale area, Silverleaf leads the field with an average price per square foot of $493, with Whisper Rock trailing at $323 per square foot. As a point of comparison, Paradise Valley homes in the same price range average $354 per square foot.

An appraiser’s report can disclose improvements that can have a significant positive impact on a home’s value. We

Today, if you are selling a luxury property, the way your home is marketed is more important than ever. Technology and the

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web have put power in the hands of the buyer to search and research at anytime and anywhere. Professional imagery is a must, especially for luxury properties. A technology we use for this is called Matterport, a specially designed tool that maps out a home and allows a buyer to virtually walk the property. Buyers can view the home online or even don Virtual Reality glasses and immerse themselves in a property as if they are there, and a 3D model allows a buyer to see the floorplan. Matterport is a standard

part of our property marketing package. High-quality professional photography is also essential. We have a professional stylist participate in most photo sessions to ensure everything is picture perfect. The description of a home is also critical. The words crafted to describe a home need to tell a story that resonates with buyers. It also needs to make it easy for users of popular web sites to search in ways that makes sense to them. The luxury market demands punchy, well-written copy. Descriptions control the number of people

that view your property and can also affect how long it takes to sell. We recently analyzed all the descriptive content of listings in the area’s luxury market. This content is taken from the property descriptions Realtors place on the MLS. Are different words used in the description of properties that sell in 30 days compared those that remain on the market more than 500 days? The answer is yes. From this analysis we created word clouds with frequency distributions. We use data like this to create a competitive edge to make our client’s homes stand out. The word clouds on the next page show clear differences between words used that sold homes quickly, versus those that are still languishing on the market. This is one reason why we believe it is important to spend time crafting the perfect sales copy.

Matterport Virtual Reality 3D Model

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WO R D CLOU D Homes sold in 30 days or less ACRE APPLIANCES

AREA

BACKYARD

BAR

BATH BEAUTIFUL CUSTOM DOOR

CEILINGS CLOSET COMMUNITY COURTYARD COVERED DINING ENTERTAINING ENTRY ESTATE FAMILY FEATURES FIREPLACE FLOOR GATED GOLF GRANITE GUEST HUGE ISLAND KITCHEN LARGE LIGHT LIVING LOCATED LOT MOUNTAIN OFFERS OPEN OUTDOOR PATIO PERFECT PLAN POOL PRIVATE SCOTTSDALE SPA SPACE SPACIOUS SUITE VIEWS WINE

Homes on the market more than 500 days AREA BATH BEDROOMS BUILT CEILINGS CITY CLUB COURSE CUSTOM DESERT DESIGN DETAIL DINING ENTERTAINING ESTATE FEATURES FINISHES FIREPLACE FLOOR FULL GARAGE GATED GOLF GRANITE GUEST HOUSE INTERIOR KITCHEN LARGE LIGHT LIVING LUXURY MOUNTAIN OFFERS OFFICE OPEN OUTDOOR PATIO PLAN POOL PRIVATE SEPARATE SPA SPACE STONE

ACRES

SUITE

VIEWS

WALLS

WOOD

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MAR KET S UM M A RY

Buyers

When looking to purchase a luxury property, it truly is a buyer’s market with many homes waiting months or even years for the right buyer to appear. A keen understanding of market areas, seller motivations, and options is incredibly useful in negotiating for the property you want at the right price. As experienced luxury property experts, we can help you find your perfect home. Once you have determined the geographic areas that interest you and have a price range in mind, we can investigate the current market, inventory, and historical sales data to help you explore options. Every luxury property is different, and with a strong knowledge base built around your interest and lifestyle, we can analyze opportunities and develop a plan to find the right property at the right price.

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Our extensive business experience allows us to work in partnership with you to negotiate creatively on both the buy and sell side of a transaction. Shifting demographics will lead to some long-term changes in the luxury market. The customer for these properties is changing, and with this change comes the need for a different kind of property. These new customers are comprised of high-earning millennials, and their interests and uses in a property differ from previous generations. They look for less square footage (according to one builder we spoke with, 5,500 square feet is the sweet spot). They want more open floorplans and less space to care for. Many also have a desire to maintain a smaller environmental footprint. These buyers are also less likely to host multi-generational gatherings than more mature buyers of large homes.

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Average number of square feet at different price ranges in Phoenix luxury market: $1.0 -1.5 MM

4374 SQ FT

$1.5 -2.0 MM

5929 SQ FT

$2.0 -3.0 MM

6214 SQ FT

$3.0+ MM

7001 SQ FT

These younger, luxury buyers usually come from business backgrounds where they have experienced rapid financial gain, and often a couple’s combined income enables them to make purchases in our luxury market. A second group also entering the market are the children of baby boomers. According to economists, as baby boomers pass on, our country will see the largest transfer of generational wealth in history.


“Shifting demographics are leading to some long-term changes in the luxury market”

In the longer term these two factors will help the luxury market. These new buyers however, may be looking for something a bit different and curated more to their taste.

“YOUNGER BUYERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO FINANCE A PURCHASE” The younger buyers are more likely to finance a purchase. A financial shift that comes with this, is that fewer of these younger affluent buyers are expected to be cash buyers, so financing contingencies are more likely (another valuable reason for having an appraiser on the front end of a listing). Over the past six months 52 percent of homes in the area priced above one million dollars sold for cash. The new buyers, although wealthy, may not be as cash rich as those who have had more time to accumulate wealth. These buyers will be turning to more

conventional types of financing, seeking Super Jumbo loans. For the seller, this translates into several issues. First, look for longer closing times.

“CLOSING TIMES ARE LIKELY TO

GET EXTENDED AS FEWER BUYERS PURCHASE WITH CASH” Cash buyers can usually purchase a home in a relatively short time, but, when a buyer needs financing, closing times get extended, and often dramatically. If buyers are borrowing a significant amount towards the home purchase, the financial institution will require an independent appraisal report that supports the price. If your home is older, some remodeling could reap big dividends in the future when you are ready to sell. This new group of buyers is looking for brighter colors, designer-styled kitchens with all the latest chef quality equipment, and smart home

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technology. Homes with complex Crestron systems with proprietary software and mega remotecontrols that still have a “VCR” button, won’t help attract these buyers. If you can’t control many elements of the home, such as thermostats, lighting, video feeds or music from your smart phone, anywhere in the world, you might benefit from an equipment upgrade which will help when you go to market.

“ANYTHING ADDING ENTERTAINMENT VALUE TO A HOME WILL BE ATTRACTIVE TO YOUNGER BUYERS” Theater rooms, exercise rooms, or anything that adds an entertainment component to a home will be attractive. New buyers are also looking for master bathrooms and closets that are living spaces of their own.

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H OMES I N T H E M A RKE T

Interesting facts about homes that have sold or are on the market The highest priced home to sell since January was a stunning contemporary home in Desert Mountain that sold in midJune after 204 days. The selling price was $9.2 Million, 15 percent below the original list price of $10.9 Million. The property had 5 bedrooms, 7½ bathrooms and 7,548 square feet in size. It was the highest price per square foot of any home sold in the market at $1219 per square foot.

16 percent below the original list price of $5,795,000.

photo courtesy of Marily Hoffman World Wide Properties

photo courtesy of Cionne McCarthy & Susie Wesley, Russ Lyon Sothebys

True to our Southwestern heritage, 20 of the properties sold, and 83 of those currently listed, qualify as properties that allow horses. The highest priced home listed in this group is $10 Million, boasts 18 acres, and includes eight horse stalls. photo courtesy of Cionne McCarthy & Susie Wesley Russ Lyon Sothebys

The largest home to sell during the period was 12,562 square feet, but the price per square foot was only $386, selling after being on the market for almost a year. The closing price was $4,850,000 which is

A new luxury project in the area is Azure. This development will feature 66 homes at the Ritz Carlton in PV. These premium homes start at $2 Million and range from 3,800 to 6,800 square feet. If you are interested in learning more about this RESIDENCE 1 - STYLE 2 project, please let us know.

If ever there is a property searching for the right buyer, this is it. With a very small buyer’s pool, the horse property is approaching 1000 days on the market. This property also takes honors for the longest listed luxury property in the market. Azure, a Shea Signature™ community, is offered by The Solvere Group, LLC (AZ DRE #LC631297000) with construction by Shea Homes Limited Partnership (ROC #195895). This is not an offer for real estate for sale, nor solicitation of an offer to buy to residents of any state or province in which registration and other legal requirements have not been fulfilled. Developer may choose to utilize a Priority Reservation program before or after the Public Report has been issued. No sales will take place until the State Real Estate Department issues a Public Report, which will then be available on the State Real Estate Department Website. Models are not an indication of racial preference. Trademarks are property of their respective owners. Equal Housing Opportunity. ©2017 All rights reserved.

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RENDERINGS ARE ARTIST CONCEPT A N D S U B J E C T TO C H A N G E


MAR KET STAT IST IC S

Homes sold

DC RANCH

DESERT HIGHLANDS

DESERT MOUNTAIN

ESTANCIA

MIRABEL

SILVERLEAF

WHISPER ROCK

HIGH PRICE

$4,879,000

$3,780,000

$9,200,000

$4,350,000

$3,800,000

$6,900,000

$2,675,000

MEDIAN PRICE

$1,516,000

$1,553,000

$1,675,000

$2,525,000

$1,500,000

$2,750,000

$2,300,000

LOW PRICE

$935,000

$925,000

$900,000

$1,050,000

$1,042,500

$1,415,000

$1,400,000

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$358

$350

$389

$446

$390

$493

$323

AVG DAYS ON MARKET 125

202

275

325

233

230

228

NUMBER OF SALES

14

54

14

9

28

5

$6

27

$6

Selling Price vs. Square Feet

DOES YOUR HOME FAL L AB OVE OR B ELOW THE L INE?

$5 $5 $4

Millions

$4 $3 $3 $2 $2 $1 2800

3800

4800

5800

6800

7800

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8800

9800

10800

11800

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ACTI VE L IST IN GS LISTING PRICE

10

NUMBER OF LISTINGS

MEDIAN PRICE

AVG $ PER SQ FT

AVG DAYS ON MKT

$1,000,000 - $1,499,999

248

$1,200,000

$290

184

$1,500,000 - $1,999,999

179

$1,750,000

$353

242

$2,000,000 - $2,499,999

82

$2,285,000

$426

204

$2,500,000 - $2,999,999

54

$2,795,000

$471

290

$3,000,000 - $3,499,999

21

$3,295,000

$620

267

$3,500,000 - $3,999,999

22

$3,797,000

$596

392

$4,000,000 - $4,999,999

22

$4,497,000

$581

316

$5,000,000 - $5,999,999

18

$5,550,000

$693

325

$6,000,000 - $6,999,999

6

$6,445,000

$823

351

$7,000,000 +

14

$8,572,000

$851

380

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LUXURY H OM E S S OLD SALE PRICE

NUMBER OF LISTINGS

MEDIAN PRICE

AVG $ PER SQ FT

AVG DAYS ON MKT

$1,000,000 - $1,499,999

240

$1,175,000

$277

165

$1,500,000 - $1,999,999

98

$1,670,000

$330

245

$2,000,000 - $2,499,999

43

$2,225,000

$384

198

$2,500,000 - $2,999,999

25

$2,650,000

$419

185

$3,000,000 - $3,499,999

17

$3,175,000

$523

234

$3,500,000 - $3,999,999

8

$3,740,000

$540

383

$4,000,000 - $4,999,999

8

$4,450,000

$593

238

$5,000,000 - $5,999,999

0

--

--

--

$6,000,000 - $6,999,999

3

$6,500,000

$661

300

$7,000,000 +

1

$9,200,000

$1,218

204

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N EIGHB ORH OOD RE P O RTS DC RANCH WE HAVE PROVIDED DETAILED STATISTICAL ANALYSIS FOR SELECTED NEIGHBORHOODS. WE USED THE FOLLOWING METHODOLOGY IN COMPILING THESE REPORTS. Our report only examines homes for sale whose original list price is more than $1 Million. The numbers do not include any homes that, even if in a specific neighborhood, are listed below that threshold, or any homes listed as for sale by owner. Data on sold homes may be less than $1 Million if the original list price was above the threshold, but the actual sales price fell below. Compiled data is from January 1, 2017 through August 18, 2017. The data used to create this report is obtained under license from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc (ARMLS). The Lifestyle Collection, Keller Williams - Sonoran Living and ARMLS expressly disclaim and make no representations or warranties express, implied or statutory, as to the accuracy of the data used or the merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose.

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PATIO / TOWNHOUSE / CONDO

SINGLE FAMILY ACTIVE

27

0

PENDING

2

0

SOLD

26

0 SOLD

HIGH PRICE

$4,879,000

MEDIAN PRICE

$1,516,000

LOW PRICE

$935,000

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$358

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

125 LISTED

HIGH PRICE

$5,600,000

MEDIAN PRICE

$1,950,000

LOW PRICE

$1,045,000

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$423

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

213

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DESERT HIGHLANDS

DESERT MOUNTAIN

PATIO / TOWNHOUSE / CONDO

SINGLE FAMILY

PATIO / TOWNHOUSE / CONDO

SINGLE FAMILY

ACTIVE

26

0

ACTIVE

110

2

PENDING

1

0

PENDING

5

1

SOLD

14

0

SOLD

54

3

SOLD

SOLD

HIGH PRICE

$3,780,000

HIGH PRICE

$9,200,000

MEDIAN PRICE

$1,553,000

MEDIAN PRICE

$1,675,000

LOW PRICE

$925,000

LOW PRICE

$900,000

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$350

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$389

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

202

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

275

LISTED

LISTED

HIGH PRICE

$4,850,000

HIGH PRICE

$9,498,000

MEDIAN PRICE

$1,4,50,000

MEDIAN PRICE

$1,970,000

LOW PRICE

$1,125,000

LOW PRICE

$1,015,000

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$351

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$453

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

244

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

318

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N EIGHB ORH OOD RE P O RTS ESTANCIA

MIRABEL

PATIO / TOWNHOUSE / CONDO

SINGLE FAMILY

PATIO / TOWNHOUSE / CONDO

SINGLE FAMILY

ACTIVE

23

0

ACTIVE

10

0

PENDING

0

0

PENDING

3

0

SOLD

14

1

SOLD

9

0

SOLD

SOLD

HIGH PRICE

$4,350,000

HIGH PRICE

$3,800,000

MEDIAN PRICE

$2,525500

MEDIAN PRICE

$1,500,000

LOW PRICE

$1,050,000

LOW PRICE

$1,042,500

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$446

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$390

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

325

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

118

LISTED

LISTED

HIGH PRICE

$7,995,000

HIGH PRICE

$3,190,812

MEDIAN PRICE

$2,395,000

MEDIAN PRICE

$1,849,000

LOW PRICE

$1,595,000

LOW PRICE

$1,075,000

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$513

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$380

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

380

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

249

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SILVERLEAF

WHISPER ROCK

PATIO / TOWNHOUSE / CONDO

SINGLE FAMILY

PATIO / TOWNHOUSE / CONDO

SINGLE FAMILY

ACTIVE

64

3

ACTIVE

11

0

PENDING

2

0

PENDING

1

0

SOLD

28

1

SOLD

5

0

SOLD

SOLD

HIGH PRICE

$6,900,000

HIGH PRICE

$2,675,000

MEDIAN PRICE

$2,750,000

MEDIAN PRICE

$2,300,000

LOW PRICE

$1,415,000

LOW PRICE

$1,400,000

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$493

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$323

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

230

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

228

LISTED

LISTED

HIGH PRICE

$17,999,500

HIGH PRICE

$3,915,000

MEDIAN PRICE

$2,945,000

MEDIAN PRICE

$2,650,000

LOW PRICE

$1,349,000

LOW PRICE

$1,788,000

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$573

AVG PRICE PER SQ FT

$430

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

272

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

211

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AB OUT U S NOW THAT YOU KNOW A BIT MORE ABOUT OUR PERSPECTIVE ON THE LUXURY MARKET ALLOW US TO SHARE WHO WE ARE.

results, and would appreciate the opportunity to do so for you locally, or through our network and connections in many markets around the world.

The Lifestyle Collection is a new real-estate team, under Keller Williams Sonoran Living Realty. We are not new to real estate or luxury properties. We have been active in real estate for decades, and have purchased and sold multiple homes between $2 and $3 million dollars on our own behalf. We know what it’s like to be buyers and sellers of these properties in different market conditions.

WHAT MAKES US DIFFERENT?

We are also experienced business professionals. Before forming The Lifestyle Collection, we conceived and launched three successful enterprises, including, most recently, a digital marketing technology firm that we sold to a public company. Our goal in real estate is to take what we have learned in business and apply it to the purchase, sale, and marketing of luxury real estate in the area.

We use the latest technology and data tools to your advantage. Our years of experience in the internet marketing field allow us to build a strong digital and social platform to execute a marketing communications strategy to get your property in front of more buyers, and ultimately get it sold.

We combine the talents of real estate, design, and marketing to shift the paradigm in luxury real estate. We deliver world class service and

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We have a design and staging team to help prepare your property for market, at no additional cost to you. Our staging includes providing furnishings, and if needed, professional design assistance that can help transform your home into a product that will sell at the highest price possible.

We also offer an accelerated marketing program that is designed to sell qualified homes of ($2Million+) in 45-60 days. This program, in cooperation with Supreme Auctions, utilizes a highly effective luxury

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auction process that sells high-end homes at the highest price attainable in the market. This program boasts a 94 percent success rate. If you would like more information about getting your luxury home sold quickly, please give us a call. We welcome the opportunity to learn more about you and your real estate needs. Please contact us if you have any questions about this report, the real estate market, or are interested in our perspective on what your property is worth in today’s market. We can be reached via email at jordan@lifestylcollectionre.com or phone at 602.603.0708. If you enjoyed this report and would like to receive future reports, please visit this link: http://budurl.com/reportsignup, and sign up to receive both our digital and printed information. We will confirm your email address and send you reports, perspective and ideas about luxury property, but will only reach out to you at your request.

Jordan Ayan, Licensed Realtor®


PHONE | 602.603.0708 LIFESTYLECOLLECTIONRE.COM The information in this report is from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service. The author of The Lifestyle Collection and Keller Williams Realty is not responsible for any inaccuracies. Any comments are strictly opinion, and should not be taken as professional advice. You are advised to seek professional advice for any sale or purchase of real estate. If your home is currently listed with another broker this is not intended to solicit that listing.

Š2017 The Lifestyle Collection


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