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4 Thursday, October 28, 2010

Need to review Strategic Partnership with the US

The Financial Daily International Vol 4, Issue 82

Publisher & Editor-in-Chief: Amir A. Ashary Editor: Shakil H. Jafri Executive Editor: Manzar Naqvi Honorary Advisory Board Haseeb Khan, FCA

S. Muneer Hussain Rizvi

Asim Abbas Ashary, CPA

Khurram Shehzad, CFA

Akhtar M. Zaidi, FCA

Prof. Zakaria Sajid (KU)

Dr. A. Hadi Shahid, FCA

Zahid Bukhari SVP HBL (retd)

Muhammad Arif

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Working up a complete gas policy Local experts have been saying for ages that in order to contain oil import bill Pakistan has to enhance indigenous production of natural gas and ensure its optimum utilisation. To further augment supply during seasonal shortages they recommended import of gas as LNG and through pipeline for a long-term solution. They also say Iran-Pakistan pipeline should be extended up to China, which has repeatedly expressed its intention to join the project as well as provide financing. It is a welcome move that the Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FoDP) has lent support to Islamabad's plan to import natural gas from Iran. In addition to that, as per reports, United States, an active component of the forum, has also tacitly agreed not to oppose the pipeline. FoDP Energy Sector Task Force report says, "Gas imports via cross-border pipeline must start in the medium term (2014-15) then increase to cover the long-term gap." The report was jointly prepared by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Ministry of Water & Power after detailed talks with FoDP delegations. According to the report Pakistan's current average production is about 4 billion cubic feet per day (BCFD) and total gas reserves are around 33 trillion cubic feet (TCF) --equal to 24 years of current production. It added the gas import through IranPakistan pipeline should materialise over the next five years as the year 2010 has been and 2011 would be very critical with gas gap exceeding 1.3 BCFD. Thus implementation of plans for importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) and drilling of tight gas (gas difficult to access) reserves must be ensured to decrease the gas gap in the medium term. The report also highlighted that decline in gas production from the existing seven large fields producing 65 per cent of total output was the result of development strategy failure. If the tight gas recovery plans, LNG import, and pipeline projects do not materialise, the gas shortfall would increase to more than 2 BCFD in 2013-14 and 5.08 BCFD by 2019-20. The task force also advised the government to offer lucrative incentives to enhance indigenous production of gas. Moreover, the task force raised objections over huge guaranteed rates of returns for gas utilities and heavy unaccounted for gas (UFG) losses. Against a target of reducing the UFG to less than 4.5 per cent, these losses for the Sui twins hover around 8-9 per cent. The task force has also cast reservations over gas marketing companies' getting guaranteed rate of return on net operating assets --17 per cent for SSGC and 17.5 per cent for SNGPL. Such high returns have encouraged over-investment in system expansion instead of reducing UFG. As a result, the two utilities continue to expand networks even though existing consumers don't have sufficient supplies of gas. Economic managers of Pakistan should be thankful to FoDP which has provided the future Gas Policy with some very important points-to-ponder as most of the recommendations are not different from what the local experts have been saying. It must be realised that sooner the country overcomes energy shortage, the earlier it could embark upon its GDP boosting strategy.

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Sobea Tabbasum

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The "war on terror" is now in its tenth year. What is it really all about? The bottom line is that the "war on terror" is about creating real terrorists. The US government desperately needs real terrorists in order to justify its expansion of its wars against Muslim countries and to keep the American people sufficiently fearful that they continue to accept the police state that provides "security from terrorists," but not from the government that has discarded civil liberties. The US government creates terrorists by invading Muslim countries, wrecking infrastructure and killing vast numbers of civilians. The US also creates terrorists by installing puppet governments to rule over Muslims and by using the puppet governments to murder and harass it own citizens as is occurring on a vast scale in Pakistan today. Neoconservatives used 9/11 to launch their plan for US world hegemony. Their plan fit with the interests of America's ruling oligarchies. Wars are good for the profits of the military/security complex, about which President Eisenhower warned us in vain a half century ago. American hegemony is good for the oil industry's control over resources and resource flows".( Paul Craig Roberts in Counter punch of Wall Street

Journal 17 0ct) This writing of Paul Robert Shows US ambitions of launching Long War On Terror and indicate that why US is unwilling to leave Afghanistan. Now war became prolonged and US now want to make Pakistan its strategic partner and third session of these strategic talks is going on. Before that in 2006 first session between President Musharraf and Bush held and decided bilateral investment treaty and cooperation on energy issues but no progress afterwards. In 2009 second session was held and after that session US demanded A.Q.Khan and force Pakistan not to import gas from Iran and also demanded for operation in N. Waziristan. Along with that US put pressure on Pakistan to stop cooperation with China on energy needs. Now third session is going to be held in US and army chief of Pakistan General. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani is representing Pakistan. There is a need in Pakistan to understand the Strategic issues for Pakistan. Strategic issues can be said those issues that are necessary to be planned for survival, security socio-eco progress of a state. In this way strategic issues for Pakistan are; 1)

Issues of internal instability in Pakistan as terrorist threat but according to Paul Craig Robert these terrorist are the creation of US. 2) Stop Drone attacks in Pakistan but according to US these attacks are successful and need to increase in number of these attacks. 3) Kashmir is a serious issue but US does not intended to resolve this dis-

Indians from Afghanistan, 7) Attacks inside Pakistan by NATO is also an indicator of security threat for Pakistan, Although US apologized but we could not avoid this threat. 8) To get rid of the debt on Pakistan because of Afghanistan war, and to meet the energy needs of Pakistan whether from cooperation with

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The US government creates terrorists by invading Muslim countries, wrecking infrastructure and killing civilians. It also creates terrorists by installing puppet governments and then uses them to murder and harass their own citizens, that’s exactly what’s happening in Pakistan today. pute between the adversaries of the region of south Asia as Richard Hal brook stated that we will not interfere in the Kashmir dispute. 4) Stoppage of Afghan war is necessary as it enhance the security threats inside the border of Pakistan. 5) There is need to understand why US is not ready to find out the political end of Afghanistan war? 6) Indian presence in Afghanistan is a threat to Pakistan's security and there is need to expel

US or with China, But US is adamant not to cooperate with Pakistan as it did with India in 2005 on the other hand trying to halt cooperation between Pakistan and china on civil nuclear means through NSG. 9) Peace of South Asia Region, Which is not possible according to the US intentions for Muslim countries.10) Socio-economic cooperation agreement formally recognized in previous sessions must be fulfilled.

Now the question is what the US wants from Pakistan through this strategic partnership. First of all US knows the geopolitical importance of Pakistan, a country located in the center of all those states that are considered rival to US. The US wants to isolate Iran. Although US and China are economic partners but on the other hand a rivalry exist because China is one who can be the future hegemony, third and most important Afghanistan. The US is nothing without Pakistan in Afghanistan. History shows that US is not a good partner to Pakistan although Pakistan always shows its loyalty towards it. The counter punch writing and in past wiki leaks document in which a document leaked out of CIA shows that US is unwilling to get the objectives it showed to international community that final peace and promotion of democracy. US wants to achieve its hidden motives by terrorising South Asia of terrorist threats and involve the whole region to fight against those terrorist made by US to grow its military industry. Now there is a need is to adopt self help system and to stand at our own and resolve strategic issues and pressurise US to fulfill our demands. We can pressurise the US to change its policy towards Pakistan. We can do this to secure our sovereign status.

Selecting a new canola variety Need to examine Canada Experience Mohammad Irtiza

T

his year the central bank has announced special financing arrangements for the canola growers. Some of the growers have not understood the potential and the track record. Pakistanis should learn from the Canadian experience, the country often termed the largest canola producer. In Canada every year canola growers have a couple dozen new canola varieties to consider. The decision to add one or two new varieties to their rotation hinges on yield potential, disease management requirements, maturity, lodging resistance and price. According a report by Canola Council of Canada, growers who try new varieties on a couple quarters per year achieve two goals: They keep up with new technology, such as yield advancements and disease tolerance traits, and meanwhile they keep most of their acres in varieties proven to work on their farms. "Today's varieties are very good, but

new varieties have not been tested on your farm under your management," says Doug Moisey, Canola Council of Canada agronomy specialist for central Alberta. "Trying a new variety on 10% to 15% of acres will provide a good first analysis." They may look for specific traits, such as clubroot resistance, sclerotinia resistance or early maturity. And they may want varieties that fit with their weed spectrum and their plan to rotate herbicide tolerant systems. But they also want to see good yield potential, blackleg resistance, lodging resistance and harvestability. For performance comparisons, growers talk to neighbours, retailers, agronomists and company representatives as well as the producers who may have conducted seed com-

pany variety trials. "When asking about trials, find out the treatments used and whether it was in your region," Moisey says. "Also look at data for other locations to get a better

ence between varieties is real. Trials with only a few locations and highly variable results often cannot accurately determine a clear top yielder. In many cases, these trials may need to show differences of 10 per cent or more between varieties before the results are statistically significant. Growers also have a number of o t h e r sources that show how new varieties stack up against their current favourites. Here they are: WCC/RRC: Seed registration trial data from the Western Canada Canola/Rapeseed Recommending Committee compares yield, maturity, lodging, height and blackleg ratings. Growers can get a sum-

In Canada every year canola growers have a couple dozen of new canola varieties to consider. The decision to add one or two new varieties to their rotation hinges on yield potential, disease management requirements, maturity, lodging resistance and price. idea how the varieties perform under different conditions." Moisey reminds growers to check the statistical significance of the data when looking at yield numbers. Trials with many locations and consistency of results can produce results where a 1-2% differ-

mary based on first year private and second year public data. Contact Raymond Gadoua of the Canola Council of Canada. Gadoua reminds growers that rarely would any of these cultivars have been tested in the exact same set of head to head trials. Crop insurance: Alberta and Manitoba publish summaries of crop insurance yield reports by variety and zone. These are based on grower responses, are field by field, and do not include other data such as maturity, lodging and disease resistance. Prairie Canola Variety Trials: PCVT trials did not run in 2010, but 2009 results are available online. Provincial seed guides. Seed associations of Canada have been using PCVT data for their canola comparisons. The staff responsible for compiling the guides looks for alternative third-party sources for their 2011 guides. Seed guides usually come out in December or early January. Last year's guides are online at the addresses above.

Need to address woes of overseas Pakistani investors Tarique Khan Javed

O

verseas Pakistani Investors Forum on behalf of 8 million Overseas Pakistanis remitting nearly US$10 billion per year to the country demands withdrawal of Machine Readable Passport (MRP) condition applied in the Gulf, since 1st September 2010, should be withdrawn till all Overseas Pakistanis are issued MRP. Sudden implementation of the policy, without infrastructure has created a tragic situation for Pakistanis still holding Normal Passports. For example in Doha, Qatar till today, MRP cannot be issued in the absence of relevant personnel, although passport making

machines were installed some 2 years ago. Despite promises, no tangible progress has been made towards giving representation to Overseas Pakistanis in our parliament and Senate. We demand urgent actions in giving at least 6 seats in parliament and 6 seats in Senate to Overseas Pakistanis. Six seats to represent: 1) USA representing 1 million population, 2) Canada and Australia representing 1 million population, 3) UK representing 1 million population, 4) Europe representing 1 million population, 5) Middle East representing 1.2 million population and 6) Far East and Africa representing half a million population. China realized that chang-

ing the entire Communist structure of the Country was difficult and would take a long time to realize. It looked for quick solution of its unemployment problem and decided to create many Hong Kongs within China, enjoying complete freedom for working of market forces, without Government intervention, of any kind. This resulted in the creation of the Six Free Economic Zones. We recommend that in Pakistan Six Free Economic Zones should be established. Thar Coal producing Area should be declared the first Free Economic Zone of Pakistan. This will ensure producing 100,000 MV electricity, sufficient to meet need for next

200 years and create a major industrial area of the world. Following the Example of South Korea in 70's and 80's we demand creation of a mandatory National Investment Fund for Overseas Pakistanis (NIFOP). In which all Overseas Pakistanis, holding Pakistani passport, may be obliged to invest 10 % of their annual saving. The Fund to be managed by a top ranking Fund Manager would be allowed to invest only in Pakistani equity, bond and real estate. Such a Fund will protect returning Pakistanis, like it did to returning South Koreans in the 80's. Overseas Pakistanis suffer a lot due to very weak legal system in the country. Their

main concern is Property Laws. As often their Rent income is stopped by Tenants and they are unable to dislodge them over years. We demand that Banking Courts may be asked to take up others financial dispute including rent and eviction cases even if no Bank is involved in the case. A premium court fee may be charged by these courts for such cases. If Banking Courts cannot do this, Special Financial Dispute Courts may be established on the line of Banking Courts with a deadline to decide any case within 4 months. Appeal against such decision should be restricted and again bond by 4 month rule, as in Banking Courts.

The Financial Daily-Epaper-28-10-2010  

The Financial Daily Epaper

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