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Monday, September 20, 2010
Asian shares gain for 3rd week on moves to weaken yen
China's SAIC approached GM about IPO stake: sources Weekly Review
Weekly Review
KSE gleans gains from likely MTS, EU tariff cuts
KSE-100 Index Opening Closing Change % Change Turnover (mn)
9879.33 10052.97 173.64 1.76 357.25
LSE-25 Index Opening Closing Change % Change Turnover (mn)
3120.66 3172.71 52.05 1.67 18.90
ISE-10 Index Opening Closing Change % Change Turnover (mn)
2553.13 2591.49 38.36 1.50 0.91
Nawaz Ali
Major Gainers
Symbol
Close
Change
RMPL PSO EXIDE IDYM HINO
1474.00 268.68 146.51 245.50 118.98
36.10 13.89 13.51 12.49 10.87
Major Losers
Symbol COLG SIEM WYETH PAKT BATA
Close
Change
682.99 1106.34 940.00 108.01 490.00
-30.01 -21.08 -10.00 -7.91 -7.88
Top 5 Volume Leaders
Symbol
Close Vol (mn)
LOTPTA JSCL DGKC TRG AHSL
8.52 10.55 25.30 3.78 23.20
26.32 21.23 17.53 17.10 16.90
Active Issues Plus Minus Unchanged
245 133 17
Sector Updates FERTILISER
MANILA: Philippine President Aquino delivers a speech before ringing the bell to formally open trading at the Philippine Stock Exchange.-Reuters
000 tonnes
Urea Offtake (Jan to July 10) 3,565 Urea Offtake (July 10) 580 Urea Price (Rs/50 kg) 879 DAP Offtake (Jan to July 09) 374 DAP Offtake (July 10) 49 DAP Price (Rs/50 kg) 2,626
AUTOMOBILE ASSEMBLER PAK SUZUKI MOTOR Units Production (July 09 to June 10) 71,998 Sales (July 09 to June 10) 73,993 Production (July 10) 7,509 Sales (July 10) 4,503
INDUS MOTOR CO Production (July 09 to June 10) 50,557 Sales (July 09 to June 10) 50,823 Production (July 10) 5,162 Sales (July 10) 4,999
HONDA ATLAS CAR Production (July 09 to June 10) 13,500 Sales (July 09 to June 10) 14,120 Production (July 10) 1,560 Sales (July 10) 1,272
DEWAN FAROOQ MOTORS Production (July 09 to June 10)1,218 Sales (July 09 to June 10) 1,371 Production (July 10) 41 Sales (July 10) 40
BANKING SECTOR Scheduled bank (Rs in mn) Deposit (August 20,10) 4,595,176 Advances (August 20,10) 3,304,533 Investments (August 20,10) 1,788,671 Spread (July 2010) 7.51%
OIL MARKETING CO (000 tons) MS (Jul 09 to June 10) MS (July 10) Kerosene (Jul 09 to June 10) Kerosene (July 10) JP (Jul 09 to June 10) JP (July 10) HSD (Jul 09 to June 10) HSD (July 10) LDO (Jul 09 to June 10) LDO (July 10) Fuel Oil (Jul 09 to June 10) Fuel Oil (July 10) Others (Jul 09 to June 10) Others (July 10)
PRICES (Ex-Refinery) MS (1 Sep 10) MS (1 Aug 10) MS % Chg Kerosene (1 Sep 10) Kerosene (1 Aug 10) Kerosene % Chg JP-1 (1 Sep 10) JP-1 (1 Aug 10) JP-1 % Chg HSD (1 Sep 10) HSD (1 Aug 10) HSD % Chg LDO (1 Sep 10) LDO (1 Aug 10) LDO % Chg Fuel Oil (1 Sep 10) Fuel Oil (1 Aug 10)
1,933 188 164 15 1,377 129 7,435 664 75 7 9,259 869 13 1
Rs 40.85 41.22 -0.90% 47.14 46.55 1.27% 47.37 46.78 1.26% 50.61 49.63 1.97% 46.37 45.29 2.38% 39,932 39,723
Wall Street weekly outlook
Fed holds key for stocks to break range NEW YORK: If the Federal Reserve's view of the economy brightens by just a glimmer this week, it could push the stock market above its four-month trading range. The S&P 500 closed the week at the higher end of that range, just below 1,130. Some chartists see a break above it as presaging a test of the year's highs. But options trading suggests some see 1,130 as the market's ceiling and are protecting their portfolios against a decline. Other investors see the Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting as the turning point that stocks have been searching for to break out of the range with conviction. "Going up to the close on Tuesday, we could see a little bit of enthusiasm, and perhaps it could be the catalyst that could push us above 1,130 on the S&P," said Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. In late August, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said he would need to see a significant deterioration in economic conditions before easing monetary conditions further. Recent data, including a stronger-than-expected reading on private-sector jobs growth, could prevent further action from the Fed. If the Fed does move, people "wouldn't interpret it as a bad sign (for the
economy) but as the Fed being vigilant in trying to keep this recovery going," Jacobsen said. Most analysts don't see the Fed moving in that direction immediately, but Jacobsen said any signal will be welcome. "It could be the impetus that's needed to push people out of bonds and into stocks, finally," he said. Even with stocks losing a bit of momentum as some technical indicators suggest, the S&P 500 seems poised to move above 1,130. Some chartists see breaking that level as a harbinger for future gains, with overhead resistance not seen until 1,173 and then at the year's high near 1,220. Having pierced 1,130 three times in the last three months, the level is garnering attention even from investors who are more focused on fundamentals than technical analysis. "Whenever economic uncertainty bubbles up, that's when technicals take over in terms of what market participants look for," said Wasif Latif, vice president of equity investments at USAA in San Antonio, Texas. "A lot of people have been looking at 1,130 and we look at it as a component because other people are acting on it." For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 1.4 per cent, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 1.5 per cent and the Nasdaq
Composite Index jumped 3.3 per cent. The CBOE Volatility index, or VIX, continued to show high volume as investors were bracing for volatility. "After VIX September options expired on Wednesday, I expected that index options activity to drop," said Randy Frederick, director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research in Austin, Texas. "But on the day, there was actually a big volume on puts and calls, suggesting that as soon as September contracts expired, they replaced the VIX contracts again for protection." A large put spread was made on the S&P 500 index that suggested a substantial move lower in the short term, according to Chris McKhann, analyst at optionMonster.com. In terms of economic data, this week's schedule has a daily dose of housing indicators. From the housing market index on Monday to housing starts on Tuesday, followed by existing home sales on Thursday and new home sales on Friday, investors will be able to get a clearer picture of a key sector that must improve before the economic recovery can really kick in. "It's been so terrible lately that it doesn't have to be strength -- just a sign of life in the housing market could be support for financial markets overall," Jacobsen said. -Reuters
KARACHI: Bullish activities were observed at the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) with impressive investor participation last week and index ended 1.76 per cent up above 10,000 levels due to expectations of approval of Margin Trading System (MTS) and on the back of European Union agreement to provide assistance to Pakistan exports and approval of $451 million support for flood relief by IMF. The benchmark KSE 100index rose 173 points, 1.76 per cent, to 10,052 points, KSE 30index jumped 208 points, 2.16 per cent, to 9,870 points and KSE all-share index grew 121 points, 1.76 per cent, to 7,022 points. Muniba Saeed, analyst at Invest Cap said that the positive factors inducing such liberal activity in the market were approval of the margin trading system by the SECP inviting plenty of applause by the investor community. "Also the floods like a blessing in disguise, IMF's $451 million for flood relief, and most importantly the trade concession to be granted by the EU sent a wave of relief through the textile sector," she said. After a long weekend due to Eid holidays, market started the week with a mega bullish session on Tuesday as index gained 211 points ending above 10,000 levels after a period of 5 weeks and investors took positions on expectations of approval of MTS. Mustafa Bilwani, analyst at JS Global Capital said that the benchmark KSE-100 Index opened the week positively because of expected approval of MTS. However, some profit taking was witnessed in the market the next day as investors waited for the outcome of the SECP commissioners' meeting. Index lost
44 points at the end of the day. However, due to continued buying by the foreign investors, index managed to sustain 10,000 levels. Market showed a positive response during early hours of the session on Thursday on approval of MTS. Therefore, index at a moment touched its higher levels of the week of 10,154 points. However, investors preferred to book profits at higher levels while uncertainties over the amendments made in it and fears of rise in interest rates in the upcoming monetary policy and declining international oil prices triggered the selling too. Therefore, index ended the session in negative zone at 29 points down. It should be noted that SECP approved the concept of MTS with additional risk mitigating measures. This was to further strengthen risk management and provide for measures to curtail systemic risk, in the interest of the market. However, the details of the amendments were not released which created some uncertainty among market participants. Finally, the week ended on a positive note with a gain of 35 points due to buying mainly by the local institutions while European Union agreement to provide assistance to Pakistan exports also supported the market. However, activity remained low due to law and order situation in the city after killing of MQM leader in London. Buying continued by the foreign investors as according to NCCPL they did a net buying of $5 million last week while on the local side banks did a net selling of $8.8 million. Investor participation improved greatly as 357 million shares were traded in the overall market, which were about 215 million shares more See # 2 Page 11
Saudi stocks dip; Dubai mkt up DUBAI: Bluechips showed little movement as Saudi Arabia's index TASI ended lower for a second session in three in lacklustre trade, with many investors yet to return from their summer vacations. Samba Financial Group climbed 0.4 per cent, but SABB lost 1.3 per cent and Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC) dipped 0.6 per cent "Many families are still coming back from holidays, with the school year not starting until Saturday," said a Riyadhbased trader at an international bank. Wednesday was a national holiday in Saudi Arabia, deterring investors from opening positions in the shorter trading week. "The market is only trading about two-thirds of the recent average, but this should pick up next week," the trader added. The index slipped 0.1 per cent to 6,356 points. Dubai's index DFM hit a 4month high, with investors picking up undervalued stocks and sentiment receiving a boost from the nearing Dubai World debt settlement and the inclusion of the UAE in the FTSE Group emerging market index. "It is still a continuation of the strong performance we saw last week, it is linked to finalisation of Dubai World's debt issue with its creditors or the inclusion in the FTSE emerging market index," said Marwan Shurrab, vice-president and chief trader at Gulfmena Alternative Investments. FTSE confirmed the classification of UAE as a "secondary" emerging market within its global equity index series on Thursday, which the index provider says is the first time the country has been added in a global equity universe. Dubai gained 2.2 per cent to 1,683 points, its highest close since May 20. "At the same time there is interest from investors to build positions ahead of the close of the third quarter," Shurrab said. Real estate-related stocks such as Emaar Properties which gained 1.6 per cent were among those stocks to lift the index. Dubai Investment Company climbed 7.6 per cent. "If you look at those stocks performance, they are among See # 1 Page 11
Dhiyan
SELL ON STRENGTH Mohammad Imran, Arif Habib Limited Expectations from monetary policy will drive the market in the shortterm. We expect a 50 bps increase in interest rates. However, any negative news from the economic front may take the market to dips. Therefore, investors are recommended to adopt 'sell on strength' strategy and avoid new investments. Foreign commitments for flood victims, no change in the monetary policy, and positive development on Margin Trading System will be the factors that can support the market. Market will be negative today.
Zia Shaafi, WE Financial Services Market is expected to show bullish activities due to much awaited approval of Margin Trading System and upcoming corporate results. Therefore, index can touch 10,500-10,600 points in the coming days. Investors are advised to invest in blue chip stocks. Market is expected to remain sideways to choppy today.