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cenSEI

Strategic Analysis and Research by the

Center for Strategy, Enterprise & Intelligence

T H E

Report

Volume 2 - Number 37 • October 29-November 11, 2012

NATION

All people have a right to know Jesus Christ and his Gospel; and Christians, all Christians – priests, religious and lay faithful – have a corresponding duty to proclaim the Good News ~ Pope Benedict XVI’s homily on the New Evangelization in the October 28 closing mass of the Bishops’ Synod You may be saying the right things, but people will not listen to you if the manner by which you communicate reminds them of a triumphalistic, know-it-all type of institution ~ Cardinal-designate Luis Antonio Tagle in Vatican radio interview

3 Making the Framework for Peace Work

Two things cut short the cheers over the Framework Agreement with the MILF: legal questions and a host of measures still to be done: annexes, Transition Commission, Bangsamoro Law, maybe charter change, and the final peace accord itself. Plus disarming the rebels • What if the sub-state declares independence? Bangsamoro and belligerency

WORLD

19 How the World Polices Cyberspace

With the Philippines’ cybercrime law under a 120-day restraining order, it’s time to look at how other countries keep tabs on high-tech hoods • The Norton Cybercrime Index: Free software to track cybercrime trends, identity theft, fraud, malware, and spam

BUSINESS

29 When Low Fares Mean High Growth

Budget airlines have been growing steadily over the last decade, taking on larger planes, more seats, and longer flights as they prepare to take on their premium counterparts. Fueling the boom is burgeoning travel in Asia • The best cut-rate airlines: Global travelers choose their favorites

TECHNOLOGY

37 Mobile Maps: Don’t Leave Home Without Them

The failure of Apple’s first attempt to replace the industry-standard Google Maps on its iPhone has highlighted our growing reliance on mapping applications to find our way • Directions from the sky: Google and Apple map plans trigger personal privacy and national security concerns • Mind map: Some experts think using digital maps could affect spatial ability, sense of perspective, as well as memory — not necessarily for the better

HEALTH/LIFESTYLE

47 The Growing Threat of Modern Microbes

SARS, AIDS, Lyme disease, West Nile virus, mad cow disease, Ebola — these virulent killers evolved just in the last 40 years. Are there more to come?

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POINT & CLICK You can access online research via the Internet by clicking phrases in blue

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Center for Strategy, Enterprise & Intelligence provides expertise in strategy and management, enterprise development, intelligence, Internet and media. For subscriptions, research, and advisory services, please e-mail report@censeisolutions.com or call/fax +63-2-5311182. Links to online material on public websites are current as of the week prior to the publication date, but might be removed without warning. Publishers of linked content should e-mail us or contact us by fax if they do not wish their websites to be linked to our material in the future.


On Earth As It Is In Heaven Is God in The CenSEI Report? So asked a new senior analyst and editor, educated in the Catholic University of Louvain, Belgium, who joined our staff this week. The question may provoke a chuckle or an eye roll from many a doubting, if not disbelieving intellectual in this trade-and-tech-driven age. Sure, the Philippines has a new saint and a new Cardinal, as deliberated in the News & Strategy Alerts for Nation. But surely, apart from the occasional briefing note or even full-length article on Church matters, there is no room at the insight and intelligence pages for theological musings. Can the Eucharist, pray tell, impart more knowledge about this world than The Economist? But in fact, there is much heavenly knowledge in the earthbound articles filling The CenSEI Report. No, the fortnightly strategic analysis and research do not harness computer models to calculate the angelic population pirouetting at the head of a pin. Rather, the divine is in the dovetails — that is, the links between what we do and why we do it, what we seek and where we look, what we say and what we mean. In short, godly tenets underpin the foundational perspectives grounding the global and social vision by which we see and ponder the world and its affairs, issues and problems. In assessing, for instance, the Framework Agreement for peace in Mindanao between the Philippine government and Muslim rebels, the Christian and Islamic calls for peace provide the overarching imperative, even in pointing out legal and security issues that must be raised and addressed precisely to avoid future dissonance and discord. The heavenly giftedness of earthly life and nature, to cite another example, binds the need to fight dread disease threatening humanity, with the imperative to respect the immensity and unpredictability of a planet still well beyond human comprehension and control — indeed, a universe not much less awe-inspiring than the one for which the ancients composed creation myths and deity tales. Divine too has to be the inspiration driving global structures and systems not only to map the world and point the way (see Technology), but also to rein in the scheming hordes of hackers and fraudsters online (World). For these initiatives bring the godly to the worldly, imparting heavenly vision to earthly eyes, and dealing divine justice to e-demons. What about the accumulation of filthy lucre through low-cost fares? Is there a heavenly streak in budget airline besides their flight paths? Ask the overseas worker embracing his wife and children after a flight that used to be beyond his paycheck, and he will say amen.


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Framework for Lasting Peace — or Failed Experiment? The nation ponders whether the Framework Agreement will finally bring peace and progress to Mindanao By Atty. John Carlo Gil M. Sadian and Mary Grace V. Pulido

It’s a deal: Applauding the signed Framework Agreement are (back row, from left) Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) chairman Al Haj Murad Ebrahim, Malaysian Prime Minister Dato Sri Mohd Najib Bin Tun Abdul Razak, President Benigno Aquino III, Presidential Peace Adviser Teresita Quintos-Deles, and (front center) Organization of Islamic Cooperation Secretary-General Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, as MILF Peace Panel chairman Mohagher Iqbal (front left) and Government of the Republic of the Philippines Peace Panel chairman Marvic Leonen exchange copies of the document in a ceremony at Malacañang Palace on October 15, 2012 Malacañang Photo

STRATEGY POINTS Will the Framework Agreement and the final peace accord abide by the Constitution? Will the planned governance system advance true democracy and progress in Mindanao? Will the directly affected areas accept the new arrangements and work for its success?

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Framework for lasting peace — or failed experiment?

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he ides of October marked a milestone in the peace process between the Philippine government and Muslim secessionists as the leaders of the country’s largest rebel group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), walked through the halls of Malacañang Palace to sign a Framework Agreement with government representatives for the creation of a new Bangsamoro political entity that would replace the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).

the Moro National Liberation Front headed by MNLF chairman Nur Misuari. Until mid-October, the Tripoli Agreement stood out as the framework for negotiations with Muslim rebels. But its express recognition of “the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of the Philippines” fragmented the Muslim rebel movement early on, with the separatist faction to be known as the MILF breaking away from the MNLF, which accepted autonomy.

Amidst the hyped-up signing ceremonies, The CenSEI Report looks deep into the innards of the new so-called “mother agreement” and compares it with past pacts to see if it is truly the roadmap toward lasting peace, and not just another turn in the long and winding journey. And crucial to this assessment are three overarching issues:

The administration of Corazon Aquino later on took over the task of implementing the Tripoli pact under the current 1987 Constitution which mandated the creation of an autonomous region in Muslim areas of Mindanao. Implementing this constitutional provision, Congress enacted Republic Act 6734 calling for a plebiscite in thirteen provinces and nine cities claimed by the MNLF as part of the historical extent of “Bangsamoro.” Despite administration support for autonomy, only the provinces of Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi voted to be included in the ARMM.

• Do the Framework Agreement and the final peace accord abide by the Constitution? • Will the planned governance system advance true democracy and progress in Mindanao? • Will the directly affected areas accept the new arrangements and work for its success? Every peace accord must necessarily build on past agreements that both the government and the rebels have largely accepted and even implemented. That is true even with the Framework Agreement, despite its explicit and sweeping declaration that the present Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) implementing existing peace agreements, was “a failed experiment.”

The long road to peace. Over the past three

decades the Philippine government had forged a number of agreements with Muslim secessionists. The most significant was the Muammar Gaddafisponsored Tripoli Agreement of 1976 between the martial-law administration of Ferdinand Marcos and

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As the administration of Fidel Ramos inked the Final Peace Agreement with the MNLF in 1996, exploratory talks with the breakaway MILF was also started. By 1999, the peace process would collapse as Ramos’ successor, Joseph Estrada, adopted an all-out war policy against the MILF. After Estrada was ousted in 2001, the administration of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo implemented a policy of reaching out to all rebel groups, separatist and communist, and forged a ceasefire with the MILF in 2003, which has continued till this day with just brief periods of fighting.

The ‘breakthrough’ MOA-AD falls through. Seven years of on-and-off talks with the MILF finally reached a “breakthrough” when the Arroyo government announced a draft Memorandum of

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Agreement on the Ancestral Domain Aspect of the Tripoli Agreement (MOA-AD), scheduled to be signed in August 2008. Under the eventual pact envisioned in the MOA-AD, a Bangsamoro Juridical Entity would be established to replace the ARMM. The proposed BJE was to be expanded from the current autonomous region, adapting the ancestral domain doctrine embodied in the Indigenous Peoples’ Rights Act of 1997 (RA 8371), and would have an “associative” relationship with the national government. While this MOA-AD could have been the government’s most successful accomplishment in four decades of seeking peace in Mindanao, local leaders in Christian-dominated areas of North Cotabato, Zamboanga del Norte, Sultan Kudarat, and the cities of Zamboanga, Iligan, and Isabela challenged its legality

before the Supreme Court. Then-President Arroyo unilaterally scrapped the MOA-AD, but that did not stop the justices from ruling on its constitutionality. In October 2008, the High Court nullified the MOA-AD, ruling that the “associative” relationship between the Philippine government vis-à-vis the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity, together with the method for its implementation, was unconstitutional. According to the decision written by then-Associate Justice Conchita Carpio Morales, the associative relationship is between states, and would therefore be illegal since “the Constitution does not recognize any state within this country other than the Philippine State, much less does it provide for the possibility of any transitory status to prepare any part of Philippine territory for independence.”

AFTER THE MOA-AD WAS SCRAPPED Communities Affected by Mindanao Conflict, August 2008-July 2009 Region

Barangays

Severly Families

Persons

Moderately Families

Mildly

Persons

Families

Persons

X

155

75

375

36,958

160,688

-

-

XII

105

1,073

5,365

30,901

154,482

5

25

ARMM

175

2,653

13,265

83,931

412,482

1,988

19,173

Total

435

3,801

19,005

151,790

727,351

1,993

10,198

Region

Barangays

Total Families

Persons

X

155

37,033

161,063

XII

105

31,979

159,872

ARMM

175

88,572

435,619

Total

435

157,584

756,554

These tables from GMA News show the number of people affected by the surge in violence in Mindanao after the MOA-AD was struck down by the Supreme Court in 2008

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August last year between President Aquino and MILF Chairman Al Haj Murad, followed by the 27th Round of Exploratory Talks in April this year. The latter produced a document entitled “Decision Points on Principles” welcomed with much enthusiasm by both sides. These Decision Points became the basis for the Framework Agreement for a “new autonomous political entity” governed by a “ministerial form of government” to replace the ARMM. This new structure would be introduced during “a transition period” through the “institution of transitional mechanisms” under the new entity, which would have “power-sharing and wealthsharing” rights vis-à-vis the national government, with an accompanying power to “to create its own sources of revenue,” i.e., to tax. The Agreement also envisions a “Bangsamoro Basic Law” which would cover the to-be-strengthened Shari’ah justice system.

In 1998, President Fidel V. Ramos and MNLF Chair Nur Misuari embrace each other after jointly receiving the UNESCO Félix Houphouët-Boigny Peace Prize for their efforts in resolving the MNLF’s armed insurgency through the 1996 GRP-MNLF Final Peace Agreement UNESCO video

Likewise, the Court held as unconstitutional the guarantees under the MOA-AD that the government would implement the necessary constitutional amendments to create a framework for its implementation. According to the Court, the government peace panel and even the President does not have the authority to make such commitments because they do not have the power to propose, let alone enact, amendments to the Constitution, which can be proposed only by Congress, constitutional convention, or people’s initiative, and would require ratification by nationwide plebiscite.

Renewed fighting and new hope. The MOA-AD

voiding sparked renewed MILF attacks, momentarily breaking the ceasefire that had kept casualties below a thousand for over a decade. But peace hopes rekindled with the surprise meeting in Tokyo in

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The Framework Agreement and the final pact it aims to forge must of course comply with Philippine law. Section 18, Article X of the Constitution explicitly vests Congress alone with the power to create an autonomous region subject to approval by affected communities by plebiscite. Thus, the ARMM Organic Act (RA 6734) created the region out of the four provinces that favorably voted in the 1989 plebiscite called by Congress. In another plebiscite under the ARMM Expansion Act of 2001 (RA 9054), only one more province and one additional city opted to join the ARMM.

No need for charter change? For Bangsamoro to replace the ARMM, Congress needs to abrogate the ARMM Organic Act as amended by RA 9054. In addition, creating the new entity must not require constitutional amendments — a MOAAD requirement that led to its voiding. On the other hand, having seen how its 2008 decision sparked bloody fighting, the Supreme Court may

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take a different perspective and accept provisions requiring charter change as best-effort commitments, like stipulations in treaties with foreign nations. Moreover, unlike his predecessors, President Aquino has no qualms about openly pressing and criticizing the judiciary from the High Court down on cases of interest. Plus: his handpicked Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno now heads the third co-equal branch.

the institution of transitional mechanisms be in compliance with the Basic Law. Perhaps the most important political aspect of the Framework Agreement is Article I, Section 1, which says: “The Parties agree that the status quo is unacceptable and that the Bangsamoro shall be established to replace the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).” This has reference to Decision Point No. 1 of the “Decision Points” agreed by the peace panels in April. This, according to leading peace process luminary Judge Soliman Santos, is the “most significant consensus point substance-wise” as it would lead to a “qualitatively higher form of self-determination/self-governance than the level of the ARMM.” How much more is the subject of further talks on the final peace accord.

Notably too, the Framework Agreement did not explicitly call for constitutional amendments. It merely provides for the drafting of the Bangsamoro Basic Law and the creation of a Transition Commission to draft and roll out measures implementing the final peace accord. The Commission would be composed of fifteen members, all of Bangsamoro stock as defined in the Framework Agreement. Seven members are to be selected by the government, and eight, including the Chairman, by the MILF. This commission shall take care that the transition from ARMM to the Bangsamoro and

Philippine Council on Islam and Democracy (PCID) director Amina Rasul, on the other hand, argues: “The previous MILF demand for a sub-

ARMM vs. BJE vs. Bangsamoro Comparing the ARMM Basic Law, the MOA-AD, and the Framework Agreement ARMM Creation

BJE

RA 6734

The New Entity

"Comprehesive Compact"

Bangsamoro Basic Law

to be signed after the MOA-AD takes effect Form of government

Presidential-type with the

Presidential_type with the

Parliamentary with a chief

governor as executive

governor as executive

minister as executive

Autonomy

Associative

Asymmetric

Taxation

Allowed

Not mentioned

Allowed

Jurisdiction of Shari’ah

Personal, family, and

Not mentioned

Expanded

courts

property laws

Military

Integration

Not mentioned

Decommissioning

Relationship with the National Government

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state in place of the present autonomous region was poisoned from the first, as the term evoked visions of an independent Bangsamoro nation within the Philippines.” This is probably the reason why the Supreme Court itself rejected the sub-state proposed in the botched MOA-AD that introduced the “associative” relationship between the Philippine government and the BJE. The CenSEI Report’s previous study on the peace process cautioned against risking another adverse Supreme Court ruling, especially with the MILF’s erstwhile insistence that such entity would still be a “sub-state,” a term also used during the AquinoMurad meeting in Tokyo last year. Notably, right after the Decision Points were announced, MILF chief negotiator Mohagher Iqbal said “the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity, sub-state, new autonomous political entity are descriptions, not specific names,” suggesting that the actual entity has yet to be put in definite and legally binding words.

Soldiers climb atop a mosque inside Camp Abubakar to raise the Philippine flag shortly before the rebel

Still, Iqbal also stressed: “The Muslim sub-state in essence is a form of federal state.” The question then is whether the Constitution provides for a federal state in “asymmetric relationship” with the national government, as the Framework also stipulates. If the charter doesn’t, then any explicit commitment to the MILF for the establishment of Bangsamoro as understood by Iqbal, would be unconstitutional and beyond the Executive’s power to commit, going by the MOA-AD jurisprudence.

Article provides that “the relationship of the Central Government with the Bangsamoro Government shall be asymmetric.” Several questions immediately arise from these provisions.

Ministerial form of government. There’s more to quibble about. Article I, Section 2 of the Framework Agreement provides that “the government of the Bangsamoro shall have a ministerial form” under an electoral system “contained in the Bangsamoro Basic Law to be implemented through legislation enacted by the Bangsamoro Government and correlated with national laws.” Further, Section 4 of the same

Can the Bangsamoro government be founded on a ministerial form of government, making it different from the presidential form of government Filipinos have come accustomed to? The ARMM currently runs under a presidential-type of government similar to that of the central government, with a popularly elected regional governor as head of the executive and the Regional Assembly as the legislative body.

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camp completely fell into the hands of government troops during President Joseph Estrada’s “all-out war” policy against the MILF

Minda News Photo

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‘While the Constitution specifies a presidential form of national government, it does not have the same prescription for local governments’ -- Fr. Joaquin Bernas Under the envisioned ministerial system, the Bangsamoro head of government would be appointed by the Assembly, as in parliamentary states. The chief executive, presumably a chief minister, would then come from and be accountable to the regional legislature. Would a ministerial form of government for Bangsamoro be constitutional? Respected constitutionalist Fr. Joaquin Bernas thinks so. According to the Jesuit lawyer, “Whatever it is, it really makes no problem because, while the Constitution specifies a presidential form of national government, it does not have the same prescription for local governments.” He even cites the form of government that ran Metro Manila in the past, saying that “Metro Manila had a ‘commission form’ of government which was neither prescribed nor prohibited by the 1973 Constitution.” The present setup in the ARMM was established by the ARMM Organic Act, which provided a system of government similar to a presidential system with clear separation of powers between the executive (regional governor) and the legislature (regional assembly). Although Fr. Bernas is correct that the Constitution provides no specific instruction as to the form of government in autonomous regions established by Congress, the decision as to the

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adoption of a ministerial form government for the new entity must still emanate from Congress as the sole body empowered to create any autonomous region in the country. Also, while such provision in the peace pact may not require any constitutional amendment, still, the peace panel, which is under the Executive department, may not be in a position to commit a ministerial form of government or even the establishment of a new autonomous entity, which only Congress can create. This was the same mistake made in the MOA-AD, which provided for arrangements that only Congress can enact.

Shari’ah justice system. Meanwhile, Bangsamoro judicial institutions, while still virtually under the Supreme Court in Manila, shall be governed by an expanded Shari’ah justice system applicable only to Muslims. Legal problems would likely arise from this. Judge Santos argues that expanding the jurisdiction of the Shari’ah courts “may entail a constitutional amendment since the 1987 Constitution, Art. X, Sec. 18 refers to ‘the basic structure of government for the [autonomous] region consisting of the executive department and legislative assembly’ and allows for ‘the special courts with personal, family, and property law jurisdiction consistent with the provisions of this Constitution and national laws’.” In other words, the charters states in black and white what types of cases the special judicial bodies may rule upon. But Santos notes that the Shari-ah justice system “also goes to the core of the Islamic aspiration since Shari’ah is Islamic law, where there is, among others, no principle of inviolable separation of Church and State but, on the contrary, the integration of religion and politics.” This matter would certainly be contentious because of the contrast between the

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constitutional mandate of a secular government and the religious character of Islamic law. In practical terms, if Shari’ah courts impose sentences allowed in Islamic law but in the Penal Code, such as public whipping, would these rulings stand?

The Constitution and Bangsamoro law.

On the Bangsamoro Basic Law, it must still emanate from Congress, the only entity empowered to enact such legislation. This seems to run counter to the Framework provision that the Basic Law “shall be formulated by the Bangsamoro People ratified by the qualified voters within its territory.” Former Ambassador Rigoberto Tiglao notices that there “isn’t a statement anywhere in the document noting that the ‘Basic Law’ must comply with the Philippine Constitution.” The Framework Agreement’s failure to acknowledge the supremacy, or even mention the significance of the Constitution, is not difficult to notice. Assuming the Basic Law is enacted, the new Bangsamoro entity to replace the ARMM must still be the same “autonomous region” mandated by Section 15, Article X of the Constitution, existing “within the framework of this Constitution and the national sovereignty as well as territorial integrity of the Republic of the Philippines.” Thus, the provisions must necessarily be in line with the current provisions of the Constitution notwithstanding Article VII Section 4(b) of the Framework Agreement, which states that a Transition Commission shall “work on proposals to amend the Philippine Constitution for the purpose of accommodating and entrenching in the constitution the agreements of the Parties.”

From associative to asymmetric. One main

reason that the Supreme Court struck down the MOA-AD was its use of the term “associative” for the relationship between the national government

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and the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity envisioned in the scrapped memorandum. In the new Framework Agreement, the relationship is described as “asymmetric.” Fr. Bernas quipped that he does “not know what this is meant to hide.” He further asks: “Could it be that the framework is just avoiding the term ‘associative’?” For columnist Tiglao, the “use of the term ‘asymmetric’ is the Aquino administration’s clumsy attempt to go around the term ‘associative’.” Tiglao further discusses the term “asymmetric relations” as popularized by political scientist Brantly Womack, who used it “to describe the relations between states of vastly different characteristics as population size, military strength, or economic power.” The term was actually used to analyze relations between China and smaller or weaker nations such as Vietnam. Thus, Tiglao concludes that the use of asymmetric in describing relations between Bangsamoro and the central government “assumes the existence of states.” Other scholarly works speak of asymmetric relations between the national government and member states in a federal system, which may not be in accord with the Constitution (why were amendments proposed precisely to change the current unitary system to a

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federal one?). Thus, in the envisioned “asymmetric” relationship between the Philippine government and Bangsamoro, the Framework Agreement may indeed suffer the same unconstitutionality which led to the demise of the MOA-AD.

Silencing the guns. Probably the toughest issue

yet to be tackled in further talks is the disposition of MILF forces. Article VIII, Section 5 of the Framework Agreement states: “The MILF shall undertake a graduated program for decommissioning of its forces so that they are put beyond use.” Section 6 further provides that “In a phased and gradual manner, all law enforcement functions shall be transferred from the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to the police force for the Bangsamoro.” By contrast, Section 20 of the 1996 Final Peace Agreement between the government and the MNLF expressly provided that the latter’s troops would be “integrated” into the regular force of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). Just after the Framework Agreement was signed, the government and the MILF leadership already showed differences in their positions on this matter. In a Manila Times report, Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Teresita Deles was quoted as saying that “The normalization process will be done in phases and we will see gradual and steady decommissioning taking place. Thus, even before the implementation of the agreement, arms will be put beyond use.” Not so, going by MILF Peace Panel chair Iqbal’s statement that “his group would not lay down its weapons until a final peace accord is in place.” The provision transferring AFP police functions also prompted Senator Panfilo Lacson, a former chief of the Philippine National Police (PNP), to ask if Bangsamoro will have its own police force separate from the PNP, and whether the region’s law enforcers would be under the President as the constitutionally

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From Bangsamoro police to belligerent power? How exactly will the Armed Forces of the Philippines hand over its law enforcement functions to the Bangsamoro police? Indeed, doesn’t the AFP already defer to the Philippine National Police all over the country, including autonomous areas, when the PNP can ably contain criminal activities? Those devilish details of the Framework Agreement will be threshed out along with the equally sensitive issue of what to do with troops of the Moro Islamic Liberation Force. Regarding the AFP, will its curtailed law enforcement role in Bangsamoro mean that it cannot cross into the autonomous area in pursuit of criminal elements? Thus, the country’s military would in effect treat Bangsamoro almost like another state which it cannot cross into without permission. Potentially even more controversial is the question of whether the AFP will need to pull most of its troops out of Bangsamoro, leaving its regional police as the main armed force there. If that happens, is there a danger that Bangsamoro police could be used to support a move by the region to break away from the Republic? The nation would then face the nightmarish prospect of invading a land defended by legitimate security elements — a situation that could qualify as belligerency under international law. If a self-administered Bangsamoro declares independence and defends itself with its police, that could match conflict conditions set out in the Military Law Review article, “The Concept of Belligerency in International Law”: “the existence of civil war within

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Graphic from “RAG to ARMM to Bangsamoro: Salamat Hashim would have approved of Bangsamoro’s proposed territory,” by Carolyn O. Arguillas, Mindanews, Oct. 11, 2012

a state, beyond the scope of mere local unrest; occupation by insurgents of a substantial part of the territory of the state; a measure of orderly administration by that group in the area it controls; and observance of the laws of war by the rebel forces, acting under responsible authority.” If a status of belligerency is recognized, the article continues, “third party States assumed the obligations of neutrality regarding the internal conflict and treated

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the two parties to the conflict as equals — each sovereign in its respective areas of control.” Plus: rebels were accorded prisoner-of-war status, and their vessels could conduct searches at sea and dock in ports of countries that recognize their breakaway state, among other privileges. In an online commentary many years ago, peace advocate Soliman Santos Jr. argued that belligerency was an obsolete concept. But rebel forces and their allies would probably still use it if conditions for its recognition come about.

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mandated Commander-in-Chief of all state forces, including the police. In response, Interior and Local Government Secretary Mar Roxas was quick to assert: “Under the Constitution, there is only one police force, the PNP.” But he did not state explicitly that the envisioned Bangsamoro police would be part of the PNP and under the President’s control.

The road ahead. Meanwhile, the government

already announced that the respective peace panels

Signing of the Framework Agreement (FA) by both Parties

Parties adopt an annex on the Transitional Arrangements and Modalities in the FA

of both sides have started preparatory talks for the drafting of the annexes of the Framework Agreement. According to Secretary Deles, the parties “expect to complete at least three annexes on power-sharing, wealth-sharing, and normalization by the end of the year.” In addition, Deles had reportedly said the Executive Order creating the 15-person Transition Commission would be out by mid-November, even though its creation is stipulated only after the Framework annexes are done (see graphic).

Transition Commission is formed via Executive Order (EO)

Congress passes resolutions supporting the EO

Transition Commission drafts Bangsamoro Basic Law Bill

The President signs the bill into law

Two months prior to the plebiscite and ratification, contiguous localities may opt to join by a petition of 10% of registered voters in the area

Bangsamoro Basic Law Bill submitted to the President for approval

Promulgation and ratification of the Bangsamoro Basic Law

Congressional Action on the Bangsamoro Basic Law Bill

Bill is certified urgent by the President

Bangsamoro Basic Law Bill is submitted to Congress

Localities with a substantial Bangsamoro population may choose to join the Bangsamoro autonomous political entity at any time, provided that at least 10% of the population petition for their inclusion in the Bangsamoro autonomous political entity and accepted by a referendum

A plebiscite is held for the ratification of the law

Bangsamoro Transition Authority is replaced upon the election and assumption of the members of the Bangsamoro legislative assembly and the formation of the Bangsamoro government

A ministerial form and Cabinet system of government will commence once the Bangsamoro Transition Authority is in plcae

A Bangsamoro Transition Authority is created. ARMM is deemed abolished; all devolved authorities are vested in the Bangsamoro Transitionm Authority

Graphic from the Presidential Communications Development and Strategic Planning Office

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EXPERTS’ POINTs of VIEW: THOUGHTS FROM SOME LUMINARIES

The Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro forged between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) is a modest but essential beginning, a road map to a shared vision of peace, a declaration of principles to be fleshed out in four annexes and in a final peace agreement “by the end of the year. But it is not comprehensive, complete and final. Much more work needs to be done.” —Artemio Panganiban, former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court

Mr. Aquino’s capitulation to the MILF lies in the fact that he got no concessions from the insurgent group in terms of the most important aspect of real peace pacts: disarmament. In all past peace accords in the world, there were categorical provisions for the insurgent group to lay down its arms. There is no such provision for disarmament in the Aquino-MILF pact, merely a vague statement (Item VIII.5): “The MILF shall undertake a graduated program for decommissioning of its forces so that they are put beyond use.” No

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timetable, no definition of “putting beyond use.” —Rigoberto Tiglao, former Philippine Ambassador to Greece

There was big hoopla at the signing of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front last week. I found that somewhat amusing because one of the clearest characteristics of the agreement is its lack of clarity. It leaves so much unsaid. As the agreement itself says, “The Parties commit to work further on the details of the Framework Agreement in the context of this document and complete a comprehensive agreement by the end of the year.” So what did the parties really agree about beyond agreeing to continue working? —Fr. Joaquin Bernas, member of the 1986 Constitutional Convention

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One does not rise to a standing ovation for a trailer even before the movie is

made, lest unrealistic expectations spoil the actual viewing. Similarly, the Framework Agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is a milestone for sure, but unrestrained hype may well derail peace in the end. The Framework says little but the public has been conditioned to believe it says everything. What will happen when our people check under the hood and discover what’s not there? —Raul Pangalangan, former Dean of the UP College of Law

The term Bangsamoro – of recent vintage having been coined by Nur Misuari in the 70s – is but a reflection of the Muslim people’s desire to reaffirm their own separate identity as a people. While some might entertain serious misgivings about the use of the term “nation of the Moros” since it may mean a tacit refusal to relinquish aspirations for independence, the adoption of the term must be seen, not as assertion of independence or secession, but as a response to the desire of the Bangsamoro people for just peace, freedom founded on parity of esteem and equal treatment for their identity, ethos, and aspirations. —Antonio La Viña, Dean of the Ateneo School of Government

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The veteran of decades-long rebellion, however, clarified that he was not urging a new war. In a Manila Times report, Misuari said: “A person who understands war knows that the element of surprise is very important; I would have kept silent if that was my intention. In fact, I am running for ARMM governor this coming May 2013 polls.” But in the same news, other MNLF leaders warned of renewed hostilities over the Framework Agreement.

President Benigno Aquino III meets MILF Chair Al Haj Murad Ebraim in Tokyo on August 4, 2011, ushering a fresh start in the peace process between the government and the MILF OPAPP photo

Assuming there is no successful judicial challenge to the Framework Agreement and its annexes, the main stumbling block to Bangsamoro’s creation may be the opposition of ARMM’s first governor, MNLF Founding Chairman Nur Misuari. From the 1970s to the 1990s, he led the Muslim secessionist movement and rebellion, and successfully forged the 1996 Final Peace Agreement with the Ramos administration ending MNLF’s independence struggle. As reported by the Philippine Star, Misuari rejected the new accord and saw it as “actually a formula for renewed hostilities in Mindanao [that] practically downgraded all the peace agreements — the Tripoli Agreement in 1976, the Jeddah Accord in 1987 and the final peace agreement with the Philippine government in 1996 — made by the MNLF in the past, which are internationally recognized.” Misuari argued that the Framework Agreement is nothing but “a political ploy orchestrated by Kuala Lumpur to prevent the full implementation of the Tripoli Agreement since its full implementation would include Malaysia’s Sabah and Sarawak territory.”

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Former Cotabato City mayor Muslimin Sema, said to be the new MNLF chairman, demanded full implementation of “the 70 percent remaining provisions of the Phase I peace agreement.” Or else: “the fall back position of the MNLF is to fight again and go back to the mountain. Rebellion is the only answer to the forgotten promises of the country’s leaders and the failure of the implementation of the final signed 1996 peace agreement.” In response to Misuari, MILF Peace Panel chair Iqbal argued that the Framework Agreement “does not diminish any bit the gains” of the 1996 accord. Iqbal even claimed that the new deal would be better than the old one. For his part, Government Peace Panel chair Marvic Leonen asked the MNLF to participate in the transition phase: “There are various ways that the MNLF can cooperate with the current peace process with the MILF.” That may be the same message from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which is reportedly seeking to bring together the MNLF and MILF creating a Bangsamoro Coordination Council. OIC Secretary General Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu has also proposed a meeting among the Philippine government, the MILF and the OIC to “find practical and implementable solutions for the remaining unresolved issues.” He attended the Framework Agreement signing in Malacañang and met with President Aquino afterward.

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Framework for lasting peace — or failed experiment?

Former President Ramos, while asserting that the ARMM was not a failed experiment, expressed optimism and declared he has nothing against creating a new entity to replace the ARMM. He however advised the present administration to “really sit down the line so that ordinary people of Mindanao will enjoy its benefits,” urging consultations with people in the south, whether they be “Christians, Muslims and Lumads.”

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News & Strategy Alerts Nation The party-list clean-up touches off sparks The Comelec campaign to delist bogus groups elicits charges of partisanship which it must seriously address

Indeed, should the Framework Agreement seek to actually bring lasting and genuine peace in the Muslim areas of Mindanao, the experience of past administrations must be taken into consideration by the respective Peace Panels of the government and the MILF to avoid the same mistakes that caused the failure of previous efforts to solve the insurgency problem.

The prospects for peace and progress. As

observed by The CenSEI Report in our previous installment on the Bangsamoro peace process, the Aquino government’s attempt to woo the MILF into signing a peace deal is commendable. But the peace negotiators should keep in mind that more important than appeasing the dominant rebel group is the need to ensure that every ethnic or religious group in Mindanao enjoy the rights and reap the development gains from any agreement. Plainly, for lasting peace and security, the end-result should be harmony, democracy and progress in all of Mindanao as part of the Republic. That elusive goal and what needs to be done not just on the negotiating table, but more so on the ground and in the governance chambers in Manila and Mindanao, shall be the subject of another report. Meanwhile, the nation can only hope that all sides dealing with the challenge of peace making in Mindanao will take to heart and apply resolutely the lessons from both successes and setbacks in four decades of the Muslim insurgency in the Philippines.

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Akbayan spokesperson Ibarra Gutierrez III and Anakbayan chairman Vencer Crisostomo debate on TV ANC/YouTube

To ensure that party-list groups truly represent marginalized groups in Congress, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) is cracking down on bogus entities. Predictably, those losing accreditation have cried foul, casting doubt on Comelec’s impartiality. As of Oct. 25, the Comelec has barred 50 organizations from the 2013 midterm elections. Among those disqualified based on a Philippine Daily Inquirer report are: Ako Bicol, which got the most votes in 2010, 1-CARE, Apec, Kakusa (Kapatiran ng mga Nakulong ng Walang Sala, led by ex-convict Romeo Jalosjos), and the anti-communist Bantay, represented by retired general Jovito Planarian, now wanted for alleged rights violations in his counter-insurgency campaign.

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According to the Comelec, it voided the accreditation of organizations that did not represent any of the 12 marginalized and underrepresented sectors cited in the 1995 party-list law (RA 7941): labor, peasant, fisherfolk, urban poor, indigenous cultural communities, elderly, handicapped, women, youth, veterans, overseas workers and professionals. Now that reforms in the electoral system are starting to roll out, would the 14-year old party-list Akbayan keep holding seats in Congress? The leftist group is the subject of disqualification petitions filed by a rival party-list, youth representative Anakbayan. The petition argues that Akbayan no longer represents the marginalized sector since it has forged strong ties with the Palace. The conflict turned into an ugly public shouting match when Anakbayan members intruded into an Akbayan press conference on Oct. 16. Akbayan stalwarts hold key positions in the Aquino administration. They are Commission on Human Rights Chairman Loretta Rosales, National Anti-Poverty Commission Lead Convenor Joel Rocamora, Presidential Political Affairs Adviser Ronald Llamas and his deputy Ibarra Gutierrez III, and Liberal Party Senate bet Risa Hontiveros-Barraquel. Still, Akbayan argues that it remains committed to reforms and policies for the underprivileged such as farmers, laborers, women and informal settlers, as reported by the Inquirer. The party-list purge has become a litmus test for Comelec impartiality, now under scrutiny with three of its seven commissioners linked to the President: Chairman Sixto Brillantes Jr. and Commissioner Christian Robert Lim, Aquino’s election lawyers in 2010, and recently installed Commissioner Grace Padaca, a member of the ruling Liberal Party. Aquino also paid ₱70,000 bail in her Sandiganbayan case alleging corruption when she was Isabela governor. It doesn’t help that the President openly defended Akbayan and

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even justified its receipt of ₱14 million in campaign contributions from his sisters in 2010. How the Comelec decides the fate of party-list groups, especially Akbayan, will impact on public perceptions of its impartiality. If the poll body comes across as partisan, then there could be grave doubts about the fairness of the 2013 elections itself.

A new Filipino saint and a new cardinal In the Year of Faith, the Vatican gives Filipino Catholics a devotion boost

GMA7 coverage of St. Pedro Calungsod canonization on Oct. 21 YouTube

Two events stirred the souls of Filipinos, especially the 85% who are Catholic. A second Filipino received full altar honors: Pedro Calungsod, a young Visayan layman and martyr beatified in 2000, was declared a saint on Oct. 21 in solemn rites led by His Holiness Pope Benedict

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XVI before more than 30,000 believers at Saint Peter’s Square and millions of Catholics around the world via satellite TV. Days later, the Pope announced another accolade: the inclusion of Manila Archbishop Luis Antonio Tagle among six new cardinals joining the Consistory on Nov. 24. Tagle was his 1990s colleague in the International Theological Commission which he headed then as Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger. Thus, after the death of Cardinal Jose Sanchez in March and the retirement of Cardinals Ricardo Vidal and Gaudencio Rosales last year, the Philippines finally has an active member of the Consistory, which elects the Pope, often from among its members. At 55, Tagle is the youngest cardinal and one renowned for both theological brilliance and engaging preaching. Canonization and cardinalship could rekindle faith among Filipinos, especially the youth forsaking spirituality for materialism. St. Pedro is patron of the youth for having joined a Jesuit mission to Guam and met martyrdom there as a teenager. And Cardinal Tagle is popular with young people with his down-to-earth, humor-laced messages in church and on TV and Facebook. As a martyr, no Calungsod miracle was required to declare him “Blessed” in 2000, the step prior to sainthood. Three years later, the miracle needed for canonization took place. Monsignor Ildebrando Leyson of the Archdiocese of Cebu, an advocate of Calungsod’s canonization, reported a miraculous event: “the rapid recovery of a 49-year-old Filipino patient” from irreversible coma, according to the Calungsod website. Pedro Calungsod is the second Filipino saint after Lorenzo Ruiz de Manila was canonized a quarter-century ago. Significantly, both were lay missionaries martyred in foreign lands in the 17th century: St. Lorenzo in

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Nagasaki, Japan, and St. Pedro in Hagatna, Guam. The Catechism of the Catholic Church, in its doctrine that “the Church is One, Holy, Catholic, and Apostolic,” states that: By canonizing some of the faithful, i.e., by solemnly proclaiming that they practiced heroic virtue and lived in fidelity to God’s grace, the Church recognizes the power of the Spirit of holiness within her and sustains the hope of believers by proposing the saints to them as models and intercessors (#303). The saints have always been the source and origin of renewal in the most difficult moments in the Church’s history (#304). Indeed, holiness is the hidden source and infallible measure of her apostolic activity and missionary zeal. As a young missionary martyr, St. Pedro fulfilled the above-quoted goal of providing Catholics a model of holiness, an intercessor with heaven, and a source of renewal in trying times. Thus, as the Church seeks to promote devotion and mission in this Year of Faith, Calungsod gives face and flesh to those ideals, especially for the young. Similarly, the elevation of the smiling “Chito” Tagle to cardinal offers not just the Philippines, but all Asia a preacher using approachable, even engaging language through popular broadcast and online media. Plus a voice for clergy reform to make priests more faithful images and inspiring advocates of Christ. Three more Filipinos are sainthood candidates: Mother Ignacia del Espiritu Santo, who founded the Religious of the Virgin Mary; Bishop Alfredo Maria Obviar of Lucena; and Isabel Larrañaga Ramirez, foundress of the Sisters of Charity of the Sacred Heart of Jesus. Many more would follow if St. Pedro and Cardinal Tagle inspire their compatriots to live and spread the faith.

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The Global Campaign to Stamp Out Cybercrooks Lessons for the Philippines as its own cybercrime law is now held up in court

By Tanya L. Mariano

STRATEGY POINTS Online threats grow as the world becomes more connected digitally To combat cybercrime, strong national laws and increased regional and international cooperation are essential While the Philippine Cybercrime Law might be needed to protect Filipino netizens and deter transnational cybercrime rings from establishing base of operations in the country, its provisions on online libel have been criticized by local and international organizations, and have spurred legal challenges

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Cybercrime law and enforcement around the world

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digitally connected world means citizens, businesses, and governments around the world are becoming more vulnerable to cyber-threats.

By the end of 2011, 2.3 billion people from around the world were online, with 70% of households in developed countries and 20% of households in developing countries having access to the Internet, based on data released in June 2012 by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). The same year, mobile broadband subscriptions grew 40%, making it “the single most dynamic ICT service,” with subscriptions exceeding one billion worldwide. Fixed (wired) broadband subscriptions reached 590 million by the end of 2011, with China accounting for almost half of the total new subscriptions.

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The Internet and digital devices have certainly changed modern life by connecting people and services, but there are trade-offs for the convenience and efficiency they provide. Every second, 18 people fall victim to cybercrime. This means there are 1.5 million victims every day, or a total of 556 million every year, reveals Web security firm Symantec in their “Cybercrime Report 2012,” a survey of 13,018 online adults from 24 countries. In the past year, almost half the number of online adults encountered hacking, scams, malware, viruses, fraud, and theft, and the total cost of consumer cybercrime topped $110 billion. The following graphic from the report illustrates the cost of cybercrime in several countries.

Graphic from Cybercrime Report 2012, Symantec

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The Symantec report also found that there were twice as many mobile vulnerabilities in 2011 than in 2010.

that signatories should implement on a national level, as well as guidelines on international cooperation.

The cross-border nature of cyberspace makes investigating and punishing cybercrimes very tricky. What is needed to bring cybercriminals to justice and ensure everyone’s safety online is a combination of robust national legislation and increased regional and international cooperation.

(A 2009 ITU paper, “Understanding Cybercrime: A

Regional attempts to come together to combat cybercrime include the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Cybersecurity Strategy, the Organization of American States’ Inter-American Cooperation Portal on Cyber Crime, G8 Deauville Declaration, Economic Community for West African States Supplementary Act on Cyber Crime, and the Council of Europe Convention on Cybercrime. For a global response, the United Nations adopted Resolution 57/239, on Creation of a global culture of cybersecurity in Dec. 2002.

Laws and treaties to fight different forms of cybercrime. Drafted in Nov. 2001, the Council of

Europe (COE) Convention on Cybercrime, a binding international treaty that aims to pursue “a common criminal policy aimed at the protection of society against cybercrime, inter alia, by adopting appropriate legislation and fostering international co-operation,” details four different types of cyber-offenses: 1. Offenses against the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of computer data and systems; 2. Computer-related offenses; 3. Content-related offenses, and; 4. Offenses related to infringements of copyright and related rights The treaty, also known as the Budapest Convention, was entered into force in July 2004 and thus far has been ratified by 37 countries. It specifies measures

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Guide for Developing Countries,” points out that there is some overlap between categories, as the typology “is not wholly consistent.” Three categories focus on the object of legal protection whereas “computerrelated offenses” is based on the method. Still, the paper acknowledges that the COE categories “serve as a useful basis for discussing the phenomena of cybercrime.”)

Hacking, malware, and other offenses involving computer data and systems. The first

category covers illegal access to computer systems, illegal interception of computer data, interference with computer data and systems, and misuse of devices, for instance, by procuring software to gain illegal access to and interfere with computer data and systems. According to the ITU report, this includes hacking, phishing, viruses, malware, and Denial-of-Service (DoS) attacks. Some of the countries that penalize offenses under this category are the Philippines, China (through Articles 285 and 286 of the Criminal Law of 1997), India (Information Technology Act of 2000), Singapore (Computer Misuse Act of 1993, revised in 2007), Japan (Unauthorized Computer Access Law of 1999), Malaysia (Computer Crimes Act of 1997), Australia (The Cybercrime Act of 2001), France (Chapter 3 of the Penal Code), Germany (Sections 202a, 202b, 202c, and 303b of the Criminal Code), the U.K. (Computer Misuse Act of 1990), and the U.S. (Computer Fraud and Abuse Act of 1986). In the U.S., the first person to be convicted under the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act was Robert Tappan Morris, who was 24 years old when he was found guilty in 1990 of creating a worm that replicated

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itself in thousands of computers in November 1988. Morris had been a computer science student at Cornell University when he created the program, according to a May 1990 New York Times article. (Because there was no intent on his part to commit fraud or deceit, Morris was put on probation for three years, fined $10,000, and ordered to render 400 hours of community service, instead of being imprisoned for 21-27 months as would have been prescribed by federal sentencing guidelines.) More recently, a 21-year-old British man was sentenced to a year in prison for hacking into the Facebook account of a U.S. citizen in January 2011, according to an Associated Press report published in The Huffington Post (an article in The Sun identified the victim as pop star Selena Gomez). Gareth Crosskey pleaded guilty to two offenses under the Computer Misuse Act. The investigation was a joint effort between Scotland Yard’s e-Crime unit and the U.S.’ Federal Bureau of Investigation. The ITU report notes that some countries choose to extend the protection of data stored in computer systems by criminalizing data espionage. The U.S., for instance, criminalizes economic espionage, and Germany criminalizes the act of obtaining computer data that is protected against unauthorized access, regardless of whether or not they contain economic secrets.

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Computer-related forgery and fraud. According to the ITU report, online fraud is one of the most common forms of cybercrime. The most popular online fraud scams are auction frauds – where offenders offer non-existent goods for sale and ask buyers to pay before delivery, or buy goods and request delivery without any intention to pay – and advance-fee fraud, where offenders solicit large sums of money and offer victims a percentage if they agree to use their personal accounts in the transfer.

Identity theft falls under this category. The Aberdeen Group estimates that identity theft costs businesses $221 billion every year, according to an article on how to detect and prevent business identity theft posted on the U.S. Small Business Administration website. An infographic from Mashable details the cost of identity theft to U.S. consumers and what can be done to avoid becoming a victim.

Identity theft in numbers: Businesses lose $221 billion every year because of identity theft, and 1 in every 10 American consumers has Graphic from Mashable, “How much does identity theft cost?,” January 29, 2011

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Every second, 18 people fall victim to cybercrime. This means there are 1.5 million victims every day, or a total of 556 million every year. - “Cybercrime Report 2012,” Symantec

Its controversial provisions on online libel aside, the Philippine Cybercrime Law could help curb computer-related fraud in the country. The Philippines was tagged by Criminal Investigation and Detection Group Director Samuel Pagdilao, as a haven for “transnational organized crime syndicates involved in cyber pornography, cyber sex dens, illegal online gambling, credit card fraud and identity theft due to weak laws against cyber crimes and the poor technical know-how of law enforcers,” as quoted in an Oct. 2011 Philippine Daily Inquirer article. In August this year, 357 Chinese and Taiwanese nationals were arrested in the Philippines for violating the Access Devices Regulation Act of 1998, reported another Inquirer article.

Libel, spam, pornography, and other contentrelated offenses. This is where domestic laws

vary greatly. “The development of legal instruments to deal with this category is far more influenced by national approaches, which can take into account fundamental cultural and legal principles. For illegal content, value systems and legal systems differ extensively between societies,” explains the ITU in their report.

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For instance, several European countries such as Germany prohibit the distribution of xenophobic material, whereas the U.S. may protect such an act under the principle of freedom of speech. In many Arabic countries, it is illegal to make derogatory remarks with regard to the Holy Prophet, but the same is not true for some European countries. According to the report, while there is considerable lack of agreement on content and the degree to which specific acts should be made illegal, “Where agreement exists on preventing access to websites with illegal content hosted outside the country, states can maintain strict laws, block websites and filter content.” Other offenses that fall under this category include child pornography, which Chapter 2, Section 1, Article 7 of the COE Convention on Cybercrime explicitly states signatories must adopt laws against, and spam, or the sending of unsolicited electronic messages, usually by bulk. Countries that prohibit spamming include the U.S. (through the Controlling the Assault of Non-Solicited Pornography and Marketing Act of

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2003, or CAN-SPAM Act), Canada (Bill C-28 passed in 2010), and Australia (Spam Act of 2003).

(WIPO) Copyright Treaty and the WIPO Performances and Phonograms Treaty.

One contentious area of legislation is online defamation, mainly because the law must strike a balance between protecting people and honoring people’s freedom of speech.

One of the most high-profile piracy cases involved the arrest in New Zealand of German national Kim Dotcom, founder of file-sharing website Megaupload, for allegedly causing copyright holders to incur $500 million in losses and generating more than $175 million in revenue from advertising and subscriptions, Reuters reported in January 2012. Dotcom and three other Megaupload founders, Bram van der Kolk, Mathias Ortmann, and Finn Batato, are currently free on bail but face extradition to the U.S., according to a Wired news article. The hearing for their extradition is set for March 2013.

Britain is considering a new bill to address defamation on the Internet that would require Internet service providers “to try to identify internet trolls without victims needing to resort to costly legal action,” The Guardian reported in June 2012. The bill underwent second reading at the House of Lords on October 9, 2012. A line-by-line examination of the bill has yet to be scheduled. In August 2011, the BBC reported that legal information firm Sweet and Maxwell had found that Internet-related libel in England and Wales increased from seven to 16, quite possible because of the rise in the use of social media. In the Philippines, the online libel provision of the Cybercrime Law remains a hot topic of debate. There has been mass outrage locally, and international bodies, including non-governmental organizations Freedom House and Human Rights Watch, have likewise condemned the law over the online libel provision.

Offenses related to infringement of copyright and related rights. The most common violation of

copyright is the sharing of songs, movies, software, and other copyright-protected files using peer-topeer file-sharing systems. While the COE Convention on Cybercrime does not identify specific acts that should be criminalized, this is already illegal in many countries, such as the U.S. through The Digital Millennium Copyright Act of 1998, an implementation of the World Intellectual Property Organization

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According to a February 2012 BBC Newsbeat article surveying piracy laws around the world, the main provisions of the U.K.’s Digital Economy Act of 2010 involve a letter-writing campaign, with letters to be sent out by 2013, targeting those identified as illegal downloaders in order to inform them on how to stop illegal activity. Internet service providers such as BT and TalkTalk have challenged the act in courts, arguing that it “unfairly makes them police users’ behavior.” In France, illegal downloaders are given three chances to stop engaging in online piracy. On the first offense, a warning e-mail is sent. They will receive a letter on the second offense, and are mandated to appear in court if again found guilty of continuing illegal activity. 40-yearold Frenchman Alain Prevost became the first person convicted under the Hadopi (French acronym for Haute Autorité pour la

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Meanwhile, in the U.S., new laws are being proposed that would criminalize the streaming of online copyright-protected content without permission for 10 or more times within a period of six months. Offenders could face up to five years in prison.

diffusion des œuvres et la protection des droits sur internet) law, when he was fined $194 in Sept. 2012 for ignoring the three warnings, according to a Sept. 14 report on ArsTechnica. However, it was actually his wife who downloaded the copyright-infringing material. “Hadopi” is the acronym for the French agency created to police the distribution of protected material on the Internet.

In July 2012, TV5’s Interaksyon site reported that a bill has been proposed in the Philippines to curb

Daily Cybercrime Reports from the Norton Cybercrime Index Online threats evolve quickly because of rapid advances in technology, which is why staying up-to-date on the latest threats is important in safeguarding your privacy and security on the Web. One tool that could help keep netizens informed about what’s happening in the world of cybercrime is security firm Norton’s Cybercrime Index.

historical trends in cyber-threat levels

Graph from Norton Cybercrime Index

According to the Norton website, it is “a free tool, available to everyone, which measures and warns people about cybercrime risks around the world, and how it can affect them.” It measures levels of a variety of online threats including fraud, identity theft, malware, spam, social engineering trickery, and phishing, and is updated daily to reflect real-time cyber-threats. The tool also has a historic trend chart (below) that tracks the changing threat levels for a given time period. In the following snapshot, threat levels from November 2011 up to October 2012 are displayed.

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online piracy. Known as the Anti-Online Piracy Act, House Bill No. 6187 seeks to criminalize the copying of protected online content and penalize those who offer online services that enable piracy. Tonyo Cruz, president of consumer group TXTPower, has accused the government of “working ceaselessly to limit Internet access and our right to information in the name of fighting online crime, online piracy and cyber bullying,” and argues that the measure only diverts public attention from the failure of the government to pass the Freedom of Information Act.

Lessons for the Philippines. Passing the

Cybercrime Law is a big leap in protecting Filipinos from both local and foreign online threats, and could help deter transnational crime rings from setting up base here. However, the government may need to rethink the provisions on online libel, which sparked local outrage and legal challenges before the Supreme Court, which issued a 120-day temporary restraining order against the law’s implementation on Oct. 9, as reported in Rappler. Says Senator Edgardo Angara, chairman of the committee that approved the bill, as quoted in an Oct. 9 Inquirer story, the issuance of the temporary restraining order “will give time to the Supreme Court to study the merit [of the law] and give also the critics time to re-examine their position.” The experience of countries such as the U.S. and the U.K. could and should help guide local legislators in refining this portion of the law. Aside from strengthening national laws, increased regional and international cooperation are also essential to contain the ever-growing threat of cybercrime. In a democratic country such as the Philippines, however, draconian provisions can be particularly damaging to the credibility and reputation of an administration that has been very vocal about its commitment to transparency.

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News & Strategy Alerts World

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Global hunger, down in 20 years, is still painfully high The Millennium Development Goal target to halve between 1990 to 2015 the proportion of people who suffer from hunger needs urgent policy measures Southeast Asia shows the biggest improvement with 51.2% drop in undernourished people, but the Philippines saw hunger rise 5.4% About 870 million people or one in every eight human beings suffered from hunger in 2010-2012, down from one billion people two decades ago, but still unacceptably high. So said a new United Nations hunger report, The State of Food Insecurity in the World, published by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the International Fund for Agricultural Development, and the World Food Programme. In developing countries, where nearly all the hungry live — 852 million people — hunger incidence has fallen to less than 15%. However, the rate of decline has been slowing due to rising food prices, the growing demand for bio-fuels, food speculation, and climate change, Jomo Sundaram, FAO assistant director-general said in an Agence France-Presse report posted by Google. Based on the food insecurity report, the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) to halve between 1990 to 2015 the share of people who suffer from hunger is within reach, but only if appropriate actions are taken. If not, warned the FAO, “the percentage of undernourishment in the developing countries would reach 12.5 percent still above the MDG target of 11.6 percent.” What’s needed to hit the target? FAO’s prescriptions: more inclusive economic growth through more

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livelihood opportunities, financing education, skills development, and public nutrition and health programs; and growth in small agriculture, especially involving women.

and one of the editors of the report, in an Oct. 12 Wall Street Journal story. “The Philippines has always been a nation where the fruits of growth tend to be shared less equally.”

The World Bank echoes FAO’s wish list: investing in agriculture, creating jobs, expanding social safety nets as well as nutrition programs for children under two years of age, universalizing education, promoting gender equality, and protecting vulnerable countries during crises.

China leads the surge in Asia’s military spending

In the U.N. report, Southeast Asia showed the biggest improvement among major regions with undernourished people down 51.2% between 1990 and 2012 due to economic growth and policies to feed the poor. But the Philippines saw its hungry citizens rise from 15 million to 16 million people, up 5.4%. “Southeast Asia is probably doing better than any other part of the world. But over this time period [the Philippines] is the worstperforming of the countries,” said David Dawe, a Bangkokbased senior economist for the FAO

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Major Asian powers have steadily increased their defense budgets, with China posting the highest rise. No wonder the U.S. is shifting forces to Asia Major Asian powers have steadily increased their defense budgets, with China posting the highest rise. No wonder the U.S. is shifting forces to Asia In the past decade, major Asian powers have ramped up military spending and now have among the largest defense budgets in the world. So said “Asian Defense Spending, 2000-2011,” a report by the respected Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released this month. China has shown the highest rate of increase among five Asian entities in the report, with an 11-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.4%. That far outstrips the other four nations: South Korea (4.8% CAGR), India (3.6%), Japan (3.5%), and Taiwan (1.8%). Security policy considerations spurred the increases. All five governments doubled defense spending to a total of $224 billion last year. China’s share of the combined spending more than doubled from 19.9% in 2000 to 40.2% in 2011.

Charts from Food and Agriculture Organization report

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By contrast, defense spending in many Western countries has declined. In its executive summary, the report finds: “With Asian defense spending projected

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WHERE THE WAR CHEST GOES Key Asian Defense Trends, 2000-2011

On the other hand, China maintains it will not seek hegemony, as noted in its 2010 national defense strategy. “Relevant major powers are increasing their strategic investment,” it says. “The United States is reinforcing its regional military alliances, and increasing its involvement in regional security affairs.” So don’t expect Beijing not to build up its military while Washington does the same with its AsiaPacific forces.

Chart from “Asian Defense Spending, 2000-2011,” by Center for Strategic and International Studies

to overtake that of Europe by the end of 2012, the United States’ posture rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific region is likely to continue.” The United States has been preparing for China’s ascent as a major power, while some Asian nations are wary of growing Chinese military might, stirred in recent years by China’s territorial tensions with the Philippines and Japan. Greater American presence is expected in the region, such as in the nuclear-powered super carrier USS George Washington’s voyage in Southeast Asia. And how the U.S. military buildup is received by nations give pointers as to their geopolitical leanings. The U.S. pivot to Asia is outlined in its defense strategy released in January. In “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense,” the U.S. is shifting its attention from the Middle East and Europe to the Asia-Pacific region in light of a changing global security environment. “Over the long term, China’s emergence as a regional power will have the potential to affect the U.S. economy and our security in a variety of ways,” it says.

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“Future defense spending trends will hinge primarily on political and economic circumstances,” the CSIS report posits. Tensions threatening the stability of the security and political landscape of the region will be a major consideration for increasing defense spending.

Moreover, the study says that if the economic climate remains positive, “many countries will have the means to respond to their security concerns by further increasing their defense budgets, possibly at an accelerated pace.” However, if the future financial environment is bleak, “pressure on defense spending will also mount.” Overall, the CSIS study will help advocates of arms buildup in the region with its country-by-country analysis of defense spending trends of the five Asian powers. Neighboring countries should study the report closely, looking at exactly what China, India, South Korea and Taiwan are building up in their forces, to assess threats as well as opportunities. That includes weaponry, aircraft, and vessels being replaced and could be given or sold at concessional rates to other Asian nations. At the same time, Asia watchers should see the surge in military spending in context. The region is, in fact, just catching up with the West in defense outlays, after giving priority to development for decades. Now, it’s time for more guns and less butter.

• October 29-November 11, 2012

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Budget Airlines Take Off Growth in Asia leads the way By Victoria Fritz

NO FREE NEWSPAPERS AND MAGAZINES

NO FREE FOOD

L

STRATEGY POINTS

ow-cost carriers in Asia have made giant strides in the last 10 years, from zero to about 20% of total seats the airline industry, according to aviation data company OAG.

Budget airlines are making significant headway in Asia, accounting for about 20% of the airline industry’s market share as of 2011

Many of these budget-airline passengers are first-time fliers in Southeast Asia. Whereas route delineations were clear in the past, now premium airlines and their budget counterparts are finding many of their routes overlapping, heating up the rivalry. This was also noted in a Sept. 5 Wall Street Journal report for the Wall Street Journal. Low cost airlines are eating into the global market share of total airline seats, with Asia leading this trend

These low-cost carriers are able to offer consistently low fares, due to high- density seating, low operating costs and frills-upon-purchase features, among other things The low price comes at a cost, which include limited flights and inconvenient terminals, but safety has not been compromised

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According to the October 2012 executive summary of OAG FACTS, low-cost seat capacity worldwide has been growing steadily, from under 10% to about 26% of the market in the last decade, and better than doubling its share of total seat capacity to about 25%.

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Budget airlines take off

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LOW COST SEATS AS % OF TOTAL CAPACITY, WORLDWIDE TOTAL FREQUENCY 2003-2012 1,000,000,000

30%

400,000,000

30%

25%

350,000,000

25%

900,000,000 800,000,000 700,000,000

300,000,000

20%

600,000,000 15%

500,000,000

10%

300,000,000 200,000,000

150,000,000

10%

100,000,000

5%

100,000,000

15%

200,000,000

400,000,000

0

20%

250,000,000

5%

50,000,000 Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Low Cost

0% Oct-03

% Y-o-Y

Oct-04 Oct-05

Oct-06 Oct-07

Traditional

Oct-08

Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11

Low Cost

0%

Oct-12

% of Total

Charts from OAG FACTS October 2012 Executive Summary

Back in 2005, a May 7 news article on Financial Express online predicted that budget airlines would take off in Asia. This was in contrast to earlier predictions that budget airlines would not be effective in Asia due to distances between points resulting in longer travel times. It cited a study by Accelya Kale Solutions Limited (formerly known as Kale Consultants), which looked to the numbers in Asia to support this prediction: large populations, economic growth, and an increase in the number of people who are open to travel. Can budget carriers overtake premium carriers? In an April article on CNN’s site, Frances Cha asks whether Asia’s budget airlines could overtake the region’s premium carriers. Cha cited Center for Asia Pacific Aviation figures in reporting that budget operators’ share in the Asian aviation market grew from virtually zero to nearly 20% in the past decade.

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LOW-COST CARRIER SHARE OF TOTAL SEATS (%) IN ASIA/PACIFIC 2001-2011 22.5 20

17.7%

17.5

15.7%

15

14.1% 12.3%

12.5 10

9.0%

7.5 4.5%

5 2.5 0

19.1%

1.8%

2.4%

2002

2003

1.1% 2001

2004

6.2%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Graph from Center for Asia Pacific Aviation profile on low-cost carriers

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The same CNN article noted that the impact of budget airlines in Asia Pacific is likely to surpass that in other regions. Cha interviewed Tom Ballantyne of Orient Aviation magazine, who said, “Asia Pacific will be driving global growth.” In July this year, a Taipei Times piece reported that Azran Osman-Rani, CEO of Malaysia’s Air Asia X (Air Asia subsidiary focusing on flights of more than four hours), sees a doubling of low-cost carriers’ market share in Asia within the next five years, from the current 25% to 50-55%.

Tim Hume reported that four budget airlines in Asia are already flying medium-haul flights (four to eight hours), or would be flying them by 2013. While Air Asia X and Australia’s Jetstar already offer medium-haul flights to and from points in Southeast Asia and Australia, they will be joined by Scoot (Singapore Airlines’ budget offering, launched in Nov. 2011), which plans to fly initially to destinations in Australia, China, and Japan, and Cebu Pacific, which will begin servicing some Middle Eastern destinations in 2013 (by the second half of the year, per this update from ABS-CBNnews.com).

A large part of the growth in low-cost seat capacity comes from carriers buying or leasing bigger planes for longer flights. In a March 15, 2012 news item on CNN,

Characteristics of low-cost carriers. In a paper entitled “North Asia LCC (low cost carriers) and New Age Airlines 2012,” the Center for Asia Pacific

LOW COST SEAT CAPACITY BY REGION 2003-2012

35,000,000

100% 90%

30,000,000

80%

25,000,000

70% 60%

20,000,000

50%

15,000,000

40% 30%

10,000,000

20%

5,000,000

10% 0%

Jan-Oct 03

Jan-Oct Jan-Oct 04 05

Africa

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Jan-Oct 07

Jan-Oct 08

Jan-Oct Jan-Oct 09 10

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Middle East

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Jan-Oct 11

Jan-Oct 12

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-8% Africa

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Aviation (CAPA) defines the budget/low-cost carrier, listing some key characteristics (page 23): • • • • • • • • •

Costs are kept low using streamlining procedures. CAPA cited the case of Singapore’s Tiger Airways in describing the following cost-cutting operations:

High-density seating High aircraft utilization Single aircraft type Low fares, including very low promotional fares Predominant usage of Internet-based booking Single class configuration Point-to-point services No (free) frills Predominantly short- to medium-haul route structures

• Online Internet sales keep sales and distribution costs low • Ticketless travel saves on print and distribution of paper tickets • Passengers pay only for frills they want, such as excess luggage, meals and entertainment onboard flights • New aircraft provides greater fuel efficiency and less maintenance, and a more comfortable ride for passengers • Operating at budget terminals and secondary

• Frequent use of second-tier airports • Rapid turnaround time at airports

airports reduce operating costs • Quick turnaround times mean more seats can be sold on more flights, leading (again) to more cheap fares • Outsourcing aircraft maintenance to reputable companies The section mentioned how all operating LCCs feature several, though not necessarily all, of the features listed above. Of late, the classic model has evolved, and the lines between LCCs and premium airlines have become more blurred.

30%

26%

25%

20%

20%

Budget airlines have also been looking at the possibility of offering long-haul flights. For about three years, Air Asia offered flights from Southeast Asia to Europe, though it did stop offering this service recently. In the afore-mentioned CNN article by Hume, Osman-Rani told the author that there was no problem with the lowcost long-haul model itself, and that the decision was more related to the European market and its deepening financial crisis.

15% 10% 1% -2%

Central and South America

Europe

Oct 12

Oct 11

5% 0% -5%

-8% Asia/Pacific

Middle East

North America

-10%

Percent change, year on year

Graphs from OAG October 2012 Executive Summary

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Andrew Cowen, the managing partner of Mango Aviation (an advisory firm specializing in low-cost airline start-ups) also shared his views with

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The 10 best low-cost airlines of 2012 The World Airline Awards named its 10 best low-cost airlines for 2012 at the Farnborough International Airshow in July. The World Airline Awards is a project of Skytrax, the leading airline review site in the world. World’s Best Low Cost Airlines 2012 By Skytrax Airline Air Asia Virgin America Jetstar Airways Air Asia X easyJet WestJet Jetstar Asia Southwest Airlines Azul Airlines Indigo Airlines

Cheaper, but still at a price. Low price and new routes are the big pull of budget airlines. But these attractions do come at a price.

Country of Origin Malaysia U.S. Australia Malaysia England Canada Singapore/Australia U.S. Brazil India

Kim Wildman, a writer for Microsoft’s portal msn.com, lists some pros and cons in flying low-cost. Aside form price, advantages include low fares on one-way tickets, and newer or newly refurbished planes.

Table from TCR compilation of information originally from World Airline Awards 2012

Among the disadvantages are:

The World Airline Awards, which cover a wide set of categories, are based on passenger surveys done through telephone calls, questionnaires and online during a 10-month period. The survey measures passenger satisfaction using 38 key performance indicators, such as cleanliness, food, beverages, in-flight entertainment and staff service. It covers 200 airlines, running the range of small domestic carriers to the premium international airlines. Asia’s Best Low Cost Airlines 2012 By Skytrax Airline Air Asia Air Asia X Jetstar Asia

Country of Origin Malaysia Malaysia Singapore/Australia

Indigo Airlines SpiceJet Tiger Airways Nok Air Air Busan Skymark Airlines Skynet Asia Airways (rebranded Solaseed Air in 2011)

India India Singapore Thailand Korea Japan Japan

Table from TCR compilation of information originally from World Airline Awards 2012

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Hume about long-haul flights. Cowen believes that lack of services and legroom in budget airlines will not be an impediment for customers going on a 10-hour flight, as long as fares were low enough.

• Hidden costs – surcharges and taxes are added on to the published rate, doubling or tripling the original price • Flights are limited - scheduled at inconvenient hours late at night or before dawn, and may be only a couple of times a week • Budget terminals – these could be smaller airports in remote areas, which means you have to add transportation costs • No refund – it’s book and buy on the Internet; you may also rebook, but at a cost • Luggage limits – are much more restrictive on budget carriers; they may charge exorbitant fees on excess baggage • Unproven reputation – this applies to budget airlines which

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Budget airlines take off

Three years of decline in ease of doing business

are new startups and not spinoffs from premium airlines; one should check the online reviews before booking with them The most important consideration would be safety. In cutting costs, are budget airlines sacrificing safety standards?

National and local governments and the private sector must study closely the country’s competitiveness rankings and join hands to push reforms

In August 2005, after a Greek budget airline crashed into a hill and killed all 121 passengers and crew, BBC came out with a short commentary on airline safety. Simon Calder, travel expert on BBC One’s Departure Lounge, assured the public that low-cost carriers are not less safe than premium airlines. He cited the record of Ryanair and Easyjet in Europe, which have never experienced a crash. The U.S.’ first budget airline, Southwest Airlines, has no fatal accidents in more than 12 million flights. He added, “I haven’t been able to detect any correlation between low-cost carriers and enhanced risks from flying,” noting that they were just as interested in safety as other airlines. According to the privately maintained site PlaneCrashInfo.com, which provides information and statistics on airplane crashes around the world from 1992 to 2011, that the only fatal airplane crashes in the U.S. in the last decade involved Continental Airlines in 2009 and Comair (a wholly owned subsidiary and regional affiliate of Delta Airlines) in 2006. Apart from Comair, none of the other budget airlines – Airtran Airways, Jetblue, Southwest Airlines, and WestJet – registered any airplane crashes. (Delta shut down Comair earlier this year, as reported in The Economist in July, in part because higher fuel prices made Comair’s lowcapacity passenger jets uneconomical.) Statistics for Asia did not indicate any crashes involving budget airlines, as no budget carriers were on the lists of Asian carriers over the last two decades.

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News & Strategy Alerts Business

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For the third year in a row, the Philippines competitiveness ranking dropped in the ease-of-doing-business survey by the World Bank and its investing arm, International Finance Corporation (IFC). In Doing Business 2013: Smarter Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises, the country ranked 138th out of 185 countries, down from No. 136 in the previous report. It was 134th in the 2011 survey, reflecting a steady decline in the quality of the Philippine business climate over the past three years, mostly under President Benigno Aquino III. On the Doing Business site, a high index ranking means the regulatory environment is more conducive to starting and operating local enterprises. The report adds: “Economies that rank high ... tend to combine regulatory processes with strong legal institutions that protect property and investor rights.” Singapore topped the list as the most businessfriendly location for the seventh year in a row. Starting a business in the Philippines takes 16 procedures and 36 days, and costs 18.1% of income per capita; New Zealand’s equivalent data are one procedure, one day and 0.4% of income per capita. The Philippiones also has among the highest number of procedures for construction permits. In resolving insolvency, the Philippines is one of the slowest, and the recovery rate here is one of the most difficult. The country, however, has one of the lowest trade costs. The World Bank ranking matches other recent surveys. Take the World Competitiveness Scoreboard 2012, done by top European business school Institute for Management Development (IMD) with local partner Asian Institute of Management. It puts the Philippines No. 43 out of 59

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LESS FUN IN THE PHILIPPINES Country Data in Doing Business 2013 World Bank-IFC Report Overall Rank: 138th out of 185 (136th in 2012, 134th in 2011) Starting a business (rank) Procedures (number) Time (days) Cost (% of income per capita) Minimum capital (% of income per capita)

161 16 36 18.1 4.8

Dealing with construction permits (rank) Procedures (number) Time (days) Cost (% of income per capita)

100 29 84 103.0

Getting electricity (rank) Procedures (number) Time (days) Cost (% of income per capita)

57 5 50 833.3

Registering property (rank) Procedures (number) Time (days) Cost (% of property value)

122 8 39 4.8

Getting credit (rank) Strength of legal rights index (0-10) Depth of credit information index (0-6) Public registry coverage (% of adults) Private bureau coverage (% of adults)

129 4 3 0.0 9.0

Protecting investores (rank) Extent of disclosure index (0-10) Extent of director liability index (0-10) Ease of shareholder suits index (0-10) Strength of investor protection index (0-10)

128 2 3 8 4.3

Paying taxes (rank) Payments (number per year) Time (hours per year) Total tax rate (% of profit)

143 47 193 46.6

countries, down from 41 last year. In a press release, IMD said the rankings “measure how well countries manage their economic and human resources to increase their prosperity.” Hong Kong is the most competitive, followed by the U.S., Switzerland, and Singapore. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) investment attractiveness study finds the Philippines performing below potential. The country is among developing countries with high investment potential, but gets foreign direct investment (FDI) flows below expectations (others: Argentina and South Africa). World Investment Report 2012 posits that “investment is a primary driver of economic growth and development, and seek to give investment policy a more prominent place in development strategy.” Deviating from the World Bank, IMD and UNCTAD rankings is the World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013, where the country ranks 65th out of 144 economies, up ten place from 20112012. The Philippines, according to the report compiled with WEF local partner Makati Business Club, is one of the countries showing the most improvement. Still, weaknesses in infrastructure and market inefficiencies and rigidities have yet to be addressed.

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Trading across borders (rank) Documents to export (number) Time to export (days) Cost to export (US$ per container) Documents to import (number) Time to import (days) Cost to import (US$ per container)

53 7 15 585 8 14 660

Enforcing contracts (rank) Procedures (number) Time (days) Cost (% of claim)

111 37 842 26.0

Resolving insolvency (rank) Time (years) Cost (% of estate) Recovery rate (cents on the dollar)

165 5.7 38 4.9

Based on these rankings, the Philippines still has a lot of work on competitiveness and investor confidence. It is not helpful to point fingers instead of finding solutions, as the Palace seemed to have done with the Doing Business report. Rather, all players in business competitiveness — public and private, national and local — should join hands to enhance strengths and address weaknesses in the quest for global capital.

To sustain coco water’s boom, work on quality The growing demand for coconut water can be attributed to the trend of health consciousness in developed nations The government and private firms must enforce strict standards. One bad shipment can kill demand Philippine coconut water exports rose 81% by volume in the first semester of 2012, from 5.662 million liters to 10.249 million liters in the same period in 2011, an

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October 15 Business Mirror report said. The Philippine Coconut Authority said export value leapt even more doubling to $11.8 million from the previous year’s $5.57 million. Aside from the rise in exports to traditional markets and increased consumption in new markets, as in Europe and Asia, the growing trend of health consciousness was also cited as a key factor in the strength of exports, according to the news report. Coco water gained popularity due to its natural health benefits and as a possible replacement for energy drinks. According to an Oct. 17 Philippine Daily Inquirer report, coconut water is rich in potassium and magnesium and contains a considerable amount of vitamin B which aids in strengthening the muscles, delaying fatigue, and maintaining normal heart function. It is also regarded as a good source of electrolytes and glucose and has been found suitable for intravenous rehydration. It is also a healthy and effective treatment for urinary stones. On its website, PCA Administrator Euclides Forbes said coconut water exports in the United States registered the highest increase in the first half of 2012. Exports in Netherlands and Australia also posted an increase. Other markets of coco water with growth potential are Switzerland, Hong Kong, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Brazil, a July Manila Bulletin article, meanwhile, said. Domestic consumption of coconut water is also gaining ground, fuelled by coconut water’s increased popularity as a health drink in the West, the Business Mirror report quoted Beverly Po, Product Manager of Pepsi Cola Products Philippines Inc., as saying. Capitalizing on international and domestic consumption of coconut water is still in its early stages. Though external demand is still limited – mainly coming from developed nations – it brings a positive impact to

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farmers, the industry as a whole, and the economic growth of the country. As the demand for coconut water expands to the global market in 2020, as projected by Samyuktha S.R. in Demystifying Supply Strategy for Coconut Water, the government and private firms must implement strict standards to ensure high quality of coco water. Agricultural assistance to coconut farmers and offering incentives to private entities to put up coconut processing facilities in the country is, likewise key, as in the case of SC Global Food Products, Inc. which will have an annual capacity of 18.72 million liters of coconut water and 14, 257 metric tons of coconut meat products so as to facilitate more production and greater revenue. As mentioned, authorities and private firms must also safeguard the production of coconut water especially when exported in massive volumes because one piece of bad news about the product could kill consumer demand and ruin prospects for the infant industry. Indeed, the industry and the government should undertake and publicize more research on the benefits of coconut products, to build on growing positive interest in rich markets. Coconut byproducts with health benefits also have the potential to generate revenue. These products including virgin coconut oil, coco sap sugar, or coco flour are already in the market. Improving their quality to adhere to international standards as well as disseminating their benefits will build a bright and burgeoning future for the industry.

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Will Mobile Maps Become the Go-to Apps? Smartphone maps have become useful tools for millions of users and tough competition for standalone navigational devices By Pia Rufino

STRATEGY POINTS The number of smartphone map users is increasing sharply Smartphones are providing directions for cars, pedestrians, cyclists and commuters, providing just-in-time information to replace location searches on desktop computers Even as smartphone map apps might eventually overtake dedicated GPS devices, sales of in-car navigation systems are still expected to grow, quadrupling in 2019 from their 2009 level, according to one industry prediction

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W

hen Apple launched its new iPhone 5 in September, the general approval that greeted its improvements helped preorders to outstrip supply faster than in the cases of the iPhones 4 and 4s, as reported in Techcrunch. General approval aside, however, there was one feature that didn’t measure up to the publicity: Apple’s new maps software, designed to replace the heretofore universally accepted Google Maps, was roundly criticized for geographical errors and missing information and absence of several features, such as public transit directions and comprehensive traffic data, as Reuters reported on Sept. 20. Among the spotted inaccuracies users spotted on the Apple maps application in its new iOS 6 operating system: a farm becomes an airport, roads have been distorted and the Statue of Liberty has disappeared.

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Will mobile maps become the go-to apps?

Because of the software giant’s map app flaws, Apple chief executive Tim Cook apologized to customers in an open letter released on the company’s website, and even suggested that customers download rival mapping services while the company improves the product. “We are extremely sorry for the frustration this has caused our customers and we are doing everything we can to make Maps better,” he said, adding that the company “fell short” of its commitment to deliver “the best experience possible” to customers. Cook noted there are over 100 million iOS devices using the new Apple Maps and that the number is growing every day. In just over a week, users have already searched for nearly half a billion locations using the new maps, he adds.

Shift from desktop PCs to smartphones. In

his Oct. 8 blog posted on at Search Engine Watch, Eli Goodman, who leads the business development and research team for the data firm comScore, says the frustration over Apple maps “highlights just how important mapping, and more importantly, accurate mapping, has become to all of us.”

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Citing findings from comScore, he said that in the past six months alone, the number of smartphone users who visited maps websites and apps has soared 24% to 92 million unique visitors –an 83% monthly penetration among smartphone users. Meanwhile, the study puts the number of unique visitors to maps on desktop computers in every month in between 95 to 100 million. Goodman says, “Consumers are increasingly integrating mapping into their mobile lives and that behavior will only increase as location-based technology develops further. Apple’s first foray into maps may have been a temporary setback, but more competition in this market will only bring better technology and improved navigation services over time – and those advancements will continue to pull these searches away from desktop.” According to a ComScore 2011 study of mobile map usage in the US, more than 48 million mobile users accessed maps on their device in May 2011, up 39% from 2010. The study found that almost 90% of mobile users access mobile maps from a car or other vehicle, 16.9% while walking, running or biking, and 13.6% while using public transit (percentages did

Distorted roads, missing Statue of Liberty and falling Brooklyn Bridge were among the errors in Apple Maps YouTube Video/Engadgets

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not total 100%, as respondents could select more than one mode of transport). Meanwhile, graphical maps with turn-by-turn directions were the most popular among mobile users. The map usage via mobile applications was the primary access point for smartphone owners, the study says. Mark Donovan, comScore senior vice president of mobile, has this to say about the behavioral shift in accessing maps brought about by smartphones: “For years, consumers have been able to check directions on their desktop computers prior to leaving their home or office, now smartphones allow people to skip this step and access maps on the go, as they need them, showing off one of the most powerful capabilities of mobile — just-in-time-information.”

Real-time, location-based information. In

the U.S, almost three-quarters of smartphone users use their smartphone to “get real-time locationbased information” (directions, recommendations or other information related to their present location) in Feb. 2012, up from 55% in May 2011, according to a study by U.S-based think tank Pew Research Center. Meanwhile, some 18% of smartphone owners use geosocial services like Foursquare to “check-in” at certain locations or share location with friends, up from 12% in May last year. The study involves 2,253 respondents who are 18 years old and above. The study says the increase in usage of locationbased services is driven by the rise in smartphone

USE OF LOCATION-BASED INFORMATION AND GEOSOCIAL SERVICES AMONG SMARTPHONE OWNERS, OVER TIME For location services: % of smartphone owner who use their phone to get directions, recommendations, or other information related to their present location For geosocial services: % of smartphone owners who use a service such as Fouirsquare or Gowalla to “check in” to certain locations or share their location with friends

80% 70%

74%

60%

55%

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

12%

18%

Geosocial serivces

Location-based information services

Graph from “Three-quarters of smartphone owners use location-based services” by Pew Research Center, May 2012

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adoption-- from 35% in 2011 to 46% in 2012. This indicates that the overall share of U.S. adults who get location-based information almost doubled—from 23% in May 2011 to 41% in Feb. 2012.

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“Growing use of location-based services and locationaware services such as maps and navigation present strong opportunities for companies to tap into the functionality and insight that these services present,” suggests Vishal Bali, managing director of Nielsen’s Telecom Industry Group in the Asia Pacific/Middle East/Africa Region.

Likewise, the 2012 Neilsen Smartphone Insight study suggests that the popularity of smartphone is driving the increased usage of location-based services across Asia Pacific, according to a June 2012 Neilsen news release. The report that highlights the prevalence of smartphones in region, says Korea has the highest usage of location-based services among smartphone users (59%), followed by Japan (56%), Hong Kong and Taiwan (both 53%).

Meanwhile, the global information and measurement company study finds that there are more smartphones now than feature phones in markets such as Singapore, where 72% of all handset in the country are smartphones, followed by Korea (67%), Hong Kong (58%) and Taiwan (51%). In the Philippines, feature-phone users (75%) still outnumber smartphone users (25%).

HANDSET TYPE AMONGST USERS AGED 16-64 YEARS (PRIMARY PHONE)

74% 26%

33% 67%

48% 42%

42% 58% 49% 51%

90% 10% 73% 27%

70% 30% 75% 25%

72% 28% 28% 72% % Feature phone Users

81% 19%

% Smartphone Users

TCR-modified graphic based on information originally from “Smartphone ownership on the rise in Asia Pacific, whilst advertisers struggle to engage with consumers via mobile ads: Nielsen,” June 2012

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In a June 2010 press release from market research firm IHS iSuppli, Danny Kim, the firm’s analyst and global manager for automotive research, said that the smartphone has become “the most important platform for map and navigation usage,” with maps becoming a standard feature in these devices. IHS iSuppli says that smartphones are emerging as the platform of choice for location-based services, and predicts the number of navigation systems for smartphones to reach 81 million in 2010 and 297 million by 2014.

Google Maps dominance. Google Maps

dominates mobile maps, according to a Nielsen survey in June on the usage of travel-related mobile apps and websites, which showed that Google Maps was the top Travel category app and mobile website. Findings showed that Google Maps accounted for 78% of all the time the users of Android and iPhone handsets spend in accessing travel information. Moreover, it found that 98% of time spent browsing map or navigation information was through an app. Google Maps on Android allows users to get voiceguided, turn-by-turn GPS navigation service that lets the user use their phones as in-car GPS devices. It also gives current conditions, estimated travel times and find alternate routes around traffic. Additionally, it offers public transit, walking and biking directions. The search giant has incorporated through its Street View feature, image of buildings and street and information such as street signs, speed limits, addresses, business names, among others into its mapping service. Users can also search for restaurants, businesses and more and get recommendations and access full place reviews through the map service. In 2011, Google also launched indoor maps of hundreds shopping malls and businesses in the U.S. and Japan, along with certain offline maps.

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Brian McClendon, vice-president of engineering at Google Maps, told BBC in September, “The amount of investment we are doing in creating map data as opposed to licensing it is significant, and the difference is measurable in basically every single country in the world.” According to Google’s Street View page, the company has invested in a number of platforms to capture panoramic photographs and street information for Google Maps, mounting cameras and computers on its Street View cars, tricycles, trolley cars, and even snow mobiles.

Will smartphones replace PNDs? The

popularity of smartphones and the increasing mapping applications pose threat to the dominance of Portable Navigation Device (PND) providers in the global navigation market. IHS iSuppli predicts that two years from now, navigation-enabled smartphones will outnumber PNDs, according to an IHS iSuppli 2009 press release.

Google uses Street View cars to photograph places for its mapping services YouTube

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Will mobile maps become the go-to apps?

“After several years of strong sales growth, PNDs will continue to lead the navigation market in 2009, with 114 million sets to be in use by the end of the year, compared to 57.8 million smart phones. However, by 2014, usage of navigationenabled smart-phones will rise to 305 million

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units, exceeding the 128 million PNDs that will be around by then.” Among the features of smartphones that boost navigational functionality: GPS functionality, better usability, larger screens, built-in

Google and Apple take online mapping to the skies Google’s Street View cars have raised privacy concerns that led to investigations in some countries, including Canada, France, Germany and Spain, as reported by Reuters in Oct. 2010. According to the report, Google admitted that the Street View cars had unintentionally captured e-mails, passwords and other personal data from people’s home wireless networks. It turns out that Google cars collected Wi-Fi data to help provide location-based services which were unrelated to its Google Maps project. In June, Apple and Google announced plans to use planes equipped with multiple cameras to advance their online-mapping systems, as reported in the Daily Mail online. After the announcement, U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer expressed in a letter to the two companies that the move may lead to invasion of privacy, saying that their cameras could “take detailed pictures of people in intimate locations, such as around a pool or in someone’s backyard.” Schumer is also concerned that the Apple and Google projects will pose national security risks. He warns, “Detailed photographs could also provide criminals and terrorists with detailed views of sensitive utilities. On current online maps, many power lines, power substations, and reservoir access points are visible only at low resolutions. However, if highly detailed images become available, criminals could create more complete schematic maps of the power and water grids in the U.S. With the vast amount of infrastructure across the country, it would be impossible to secure every location.” Meanwhile, a lawsuit filed against Google in 2010 for giving unsafe directions should have reminded Apple of the importance of maintaining the accuracy of maps, as reported in a June 2010 blog post by Jemima Kiss on The Guardian’s site. The lawsuit was filed by Lauren Rosenberg, a pedestrian from Los Angeles, who said she was injured by a motorist while following an online walking route she downloaded from Google. The plaintiff sought more than $100,000 in damages. However, the court said that Google didn’t owe Rosenberg any duty since it didn’t have a direct legal relationship with her, according to a 2011 SearchEngineLand article by Greg Sterling, which also reported that almost all of the claims against the company were dismissed. “The court found that Google’s mapping services offer considerable value to the public and that allowing the litigation to go forward could open the door to nearly unlimited liability for Google,” the article says.

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Report

worldwide pnds AND NAVIGATION-ENABLED Smart Phones in Use

350

Millions of Units

300 250 200

Meanwhile, a study by Strategy Analytics predicts that in-car navigations will quadruple by 2019, from 9.5 million in 2009 to 56 million by 2019. The biggest gains will likely take place in China, with sales going from 355,000 to 11.8 million in a decade, as reported in July in The Detroit Bureau.

Time-savers. GPS devices can bring about

150 100 50 0 Graph from “Smart Phones to Surpass PNDs in Navigation Market in 2014,” by IHS iSuppli Corp, Sept. 9, 2009

connectivity, navigation applications, better microprocessor support, higher internal flash memory and improved battery life.

significant time savings. A 2009 study revealed that drivers with traffic-enabled navigation spent 18% less time driving on an average trip compared to those without navigation, saving drivers four days per year. Additionally, drivers experienced reductions in distance traveled as well as increased fuel efficiency, which could cut CO2 emissions by 21%. The study was conducted in Germany by socialscience research firm NuStats, and sponsored by Navteq, provider of digital map, traffic and location data for in-vehicle, portable, wireless and enterprise solutions.

The market share of PND manufacturers like Garmin, the leader in portable satellite navigation is quickly eroding, with sales down 9% two years ago according to market research firm NPD, and figures expected to decline even further this year, as reported in a June 12 article in Wired.

With the growing importance of being online all the time, to be able to get information in real time, it’s not hard to see why Google and now Apple are paying so much attention to map apps for mobile platforms. And yet, it should also be noted that while mobile platforms are the coming thing, they’re not the only game in town for location-based services.

“We’ve been competing successfully with free navigation on Android phones, and through third party apps also on the iPhone, for a couple of years now,” Garmin told Wired in a statement. “We think that there is a market for smartphone navigation apps, PNDs and in-dash navigation systems as each of these solutions has their own advantages and use case limitations and ultimately it’s up to the consumer to decide what they prefer.”

It should be noted that map apps on smartphones fulfill a three-dimensional need: a mobile device providing real-time location information. But the need for location information in real time itself is still growing, and while standalone GPS devices could eventually lose out to map apps on smartphones, there might still be a niche for indash location-based services provided by built-in GPS devices.

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Will mobile maps become the go-to apps?

Simon Garfield, a journalist and author of the book On The Map: Why the World Looks The Way It Does, discusses in an Oct. 12 article posted on the BBC site how digital map changes people’s lives and how digital mapping will continue to improve overtime. He says, “There is no doubt that the range, accuracy and personalized nature of digital mapping will increase, and that mapping companies will become even integral to our lives.” However, Garfield also writes about how modern maps seem to be replacing printed maps and bringing changes to people’s lives. He says: “These days we are all really at the center of our maps, which is both a useful and egocentric thing. We no longer travel from A to B but from Me to B, and we spread out maps on the floor or on our laps in a car only with wistful nostalgia.” He cites another concern: “digital maps may be shrinking our brains.” He says that it is possible that the area in our brain may decrease as the modern maps lessen our spatial ability and perspective and our ability to remember landmarks. In a Feb. 2 column in The New York Times, Julia Frankenstein, a psychologist at the Center for Cognitive Science at the University of Freiburg in Germany, echoes a similar concern, saying that navigation devices lead people to use mental maps less, and warns that spatial abilities will degrade when not being trained. She says that the more we depend on technologies such as GPS devices, which provide very detailed routes but do not give the spatial context of the whole area, the less we boost our cognitive maps because what we are developing in the brains is a cognitive map from reduced information. “We see the way from A to Z, but we don’t see the landmarks along the way,” she adds. She explains that “building a mental map, navigating, keeping track of one’s position and building up a mental map is a very challenging process for our brains, involving memory (remembering landmarks) as well as complex cognitive processes (e.g., calculating distances, rotating angles, approximating spatial relations).”

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News & Strategy Alerts Technology How FB is spreading HIV in the PH

The spread of digital maps ‘may be shrinking our brains’

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Use of social media particularly among men having sex with men (MSM) to look for sexual partners is found to contribute to rise in HIV cases Making information about sexual health accessible online could help address the problem by reaching the relevant audience The increase in human immunodeficiency virus/ acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/ AIDS) cases in the Philippines may be associated with the growing use of social networking sites, says Dr. Eric Tayag, director of the National Epidemiology Center of the Department of Health (DOH). Speaking at the 12th Annual Philippine National Convention on AIDS, Tayag revealed that reported HIV cases mostly involve men having sex with men (MSM) aged between 15 and 24, with growing infections also found among injecting drug users, according to a Rappler report. Citing a recent DOH study, Tayag explained that men in the MSM group find between 43 to 500 sexual partners a year through social media sites like Facebook and Twitter, and online dating sites such as Planet Romeo and ManJam. “For these hidden populations,” the health undersecretary said, “social networks provide a powerful network for them to meet and get dates.” The study, “OSN [online social networking] Use and Risks for HIV and other Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STD) among men Having Sex with Men (MSM),” was conducted last year by DOH

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epidemiologists led by Dr. Jovin Maestro, according to a recent Philippine Star article posted on the Philippine Council for Health Research and Development website. Tayag says the number of HIV cases in the country has been on the rise since 2007 (see DOH chart on left). From just 317 cases that year, it spiked to 2,349 in 2011. “In 2000, there was one case of HIV reported every three days. Now, there are now nine new cases reported every day. Every three hours, one Filipino becomes infected by HIV,” he added. A total of 10,514 cases have been reported in the country since the DOH began tracking HIV/AIDS in 1984. With the Philippines expected to be more digitallyconnected — “Philippines Telecommunications Report Q3 2012” by Business Monitor International predicts the country will have 39.50 million Internet users by 2016, up from 31.30 million in 2012 — the government should take urgent steps to halt the increase in unsafe sex via social media.

DOH-NEC chart posted on Rappler.com

After 80 years, Newsweek goes all-digital in 2013

And because the problem is online, the solution might as well be online, too. Notes Laurindo Garcia (as quoted by Rappler), founder and CEO of social enterprise b-change, the use of the Internet among the gay community to look up potential partners is nothing new, pointing out that prior to Facebook, there was ICQ and Internet chat rooms. He argues that it is important to make information about sexual health readily accessible online.

With Newsweek going all-digital, other major publications could follow suit, and with digital ads continuing to post steady growth

The DOH and other relevant agencies could set up dedicated pages on popular social media sites or use their existing official social media accounts to inform netizens on responsible sexual practices. Partnering with the private sector, such as pharmaceutical companies, would also be a good step.

Newsweek’s December 31, 2012, issue will be the 79-year-old magazine’s last printed copy. On Oct. 18, editor Tina Brown and CEO Baba Shetty announced on The Daily Beast website that the newsweekly will be adopting an all-digital format in 2013 and will expand their growing tablet and online presence.

On the other hand, online advice on HIV/AIDS have been around for at least a decade, so maybe the problem isn’t knowing what to do, but having the will to do it — something high tech can’t fix.

The all-digital publication will be called Newsweek Global, which will be “a single, worldwide edition targeted for a highly mobile, opinion-leading audience who want to learn about world events in a sophisticated

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With Newsweek going all-digital, other major publications could follow suit, and with digital ads continuing to post steady growth

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context.” The publication will be available to paying subscribers and accessible via e-readers for tablets and on the Web, with “select content” to be made available online on The Daily Beast. Newsweek and The Daily Beast merged in 2010 under a joint venture owned by IAC and audio equipment magnate Sidney Harman. The decision will help the prominent newsweekly cope with high printing and distribution costs, changing consumer habits, and the decline in print advertising. According to an Associated Press article in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, Newsweek circulation dropped by over half from 3.14 million in 2000 to just 1.5 million in 2012. Its rival, Time, also saw a slight decrease, from 4.2 million in 1997 to 3.38 million today. Some say this bold move by a major publication may spell the end of print publications. Other general news magazines, such as U.S. News & World Report and SmartMoney, have already switched to an all-digital format in past years, according to another AP article on the Inquirer. But the same article points out that Newsweek’s problems may be unique to the company and not indicative of a collapsing U.S. magazine industry, citing the 1.1% growth in paid magazine subscriptions in the first half of 2012, as reported by the Audit Bureau of Circulations, and the success of some magazines, such as The Economist, whose circulation nearly doubled from 844,000 last year to 1.6 million this year. In the article, Samir Husni, director of the Magazine Innovation Center at the University of Mississippi School of Journalism, says Newsweek is just using a harsh print ad environment as an “excuse” to justify its decision. Tom Rosenstiel, director of the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism, thinks the magazine’s

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problems came from “spending an enormous amount of money to maintain a guaranteed [advertising] rate base… They ended up spending millions each year to try to reach a number of readers they needed to reach.” Regardless of whether Newsweek’s problems are a product of poor business decisions or an overall ailing magazine industry, the digitization and globalization of information has clearly affected print media tremendously. The Guardian’s technology editor Charles Arthur likens Newsweek’s troubles to ailing phone giant Nokia’s. He observes: “That’s the trouble with fastmoving technology: it disrupts companies and business models that looked solid.” Newsweek’s decision sets a precedent that online advocates in other publications can use to push for similar moves. It would also lead advertisers to be more open to ads in digital publications, a trend already on the upswing. According to research firm eMarketer, cited in the second AP story, three years of magazine ad revenue growth to $18.3 billion in 2012 was driven mainly by digital advertising, while print ads remained flat. The Newsweek switch is not all good news for other digital publications. If and when the big boys of publishing go paperless, it can only mean stiffer competition for readers and ads.

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Deadly Diseases

Making a Comeback Mosquitoes, swine, and animals in the wild comprise the vanguard of a new biological war By Joanne Angela B. Marzan

An

episode of the TV program “Doomsday Preppers,” on the National Geographic Channel, showed the great lengths to which Donna Nash will go to protect her family from the global pandemic she regards as imminent. According to its website, the popular program “explores the lives of otherwise ordinary Americans who are preparing for the end of the world as we know it. “

STRATEGY POINTS Since the 1970s, more than 30 new diseases have emerged from microbes quick to adapt and resilient against people’s immune systems and drugs Some scientists warn that global warming and the floods that come with it, could lead to higher incidence and more intense versions of killer diseases like malaria and dengue. Vaccines are a must

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In the episode, Nash revealed what type of pandemic would scare her the most. “I am most afraid of the flu, because it’s so common that people don’t really take it seriously, and that has killed thousands and thousands and thousands of people.” As such, she has prepared a pandemic kit containing everything that one would need should her worst fears happen.

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Deadly diseases making a comeback

While many would consider what Nash is doing as extreme and verging on paranoia, a 2003 book entitled The New Killer Diseases: How the Alarming Evolution of Germs Threatens Us All, by Elinor Levy and Mark Fischetti, already warned that since the 1970s, more than 30 new diseases have emerged, including SARS [Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome], AIDS, Lyme disease, West Nile virus, mad cow disease and Ebola virus.

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different viruses and creating a ‘new’ influenza virus. The concern is that such ‘new’ reassortant viruses may be more easily spread from person to person, or may cause more severe disease in humans than the original viruses,” explained the WHO. In 2012, the world has seen yet again the emergence of deadly diseases like Ebola and new strains of deadly diseases like SARS and Hand, Foot and Mouth disease.

During the launching of her book in Massachusetts, respected immunologist Dr. Levy read Chapter One, which discussed how dangerous infectious microbes have become. “As the case of SARS demonstrates, the human race is in the midst of an escalating biological war against an army of microscopic foes that we have seriously underestimated. These infectious microbes are aweinspiring in number and are stunningly resilient. They can reproduce in hours or even minutes, mutating and adapting far faster than we humans can. They are learning to outmaneuver our immune systems and our drugs, they are rapidly evolving deadly new capabilities,” Dr. Levy warned.

“Doomsday Prepper” Donna Nash preparing for a global flu pandemic National Geographic Channel

In 2009, just six years after the publication of Levy and Fischetti’s book, it would appear that the authors’ warning came true, when the world faced a global swine flu pandemic that affected more than 214 countries and claimed the lives of at least 18,449 people, according to WHO estimates in August 2010. Originally only infecting pigs, the swine influenza virus mutated to become the highly contagious and deadly AH1N1 strain in humans. “Because pigs can become infected with influenza viruses from a variety of different hosts (such as birds and humans), they can act as a ‘mixing vessel,’ facilitating the re-assortment of influenza genes from

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Respected immunologist Dr. Elinor Levy speaking during the launching of the 2003 book, The New Killer Diseases: How the Alarming Evolution of Germs Threatens Us All, which she co-authored with Mark Fischetti National Geographic Channel

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SARS-like disease in the United Kingdom. A

September 23 WHO report said that on September 22, a disease similar to SARS was detected in the United Kingdom. The 49-year old Qatari national, who has a travel history to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, suffered acute respiratory syndrome with renal failure. The patient was first admitted to the Intensive Care Unit in Doha on September 7 then transferred to the United Kingdom on September 11. Doctors later confirmed that the patient was infected with a strain of the novel coronavirus, a variation of the virus responsible for SARS and even the common cold. Earlier this year, a 60-year old Saudi national was also believed to have died from the novel coronavirus. After comparing the lung tissues of both cases, results have showed 99.5% identity. The disease being highly fatal, WHO closely monitored further incidence of the disease. Fortunately, as of an October 10 WHO report, no new cases have been reported. “No new cases of infection with the novel coronavirus have been reported since 22 September 2012. So far, after careful follow-up of close contacts of the two

confirmed cases, and a heightened state of global surveillance, there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission of the virus,” the WHO report said. “The governments of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Kingdom, are continuing their work to gain a better understanding of the disease and the likely source of infection.”

Hand, foot and mouth disease in Cambodia.

In July 2012, WHO was informed by the Ministry of Health in Cambodia of an undiagnosed disease that has infected 62 children and killed 54 since April. The symptoms observed were high fever, followed by respiratory and/or neurologic symptoms with rapid deterioration of respiratory functions. A WHO report dated July 13 revealed that a severe case of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) was the cause in majority of cases reported. “Samples from a total of 31 patients were obtained and tested for a number of pathogens by Institut Pasteur du Cambodge. Most of these samples tested positive for enterovirus 71 (EV-71) which causes HFMD. A small proportion of samples also tested positive for other pathogens including Haemophilus Influenzae type B and Streptococcus suis. It was not possible to test all

Photo taken from Real Science shows an Ebola patient being treated in Kibaale District Hospital

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the patients as some of them died before appropriate samples could be taken,” the WHO report explained. According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) HMD is a common viral illness that usually affects infants and children younger than 5 years old. Symptoms of hand, foot, and mouth disease include fever, blister-like sores in the mouth (herpangina), and a skin rash.

Ebola virus in Africa. This year, cases of the deadly Ebola virus were reported in two countries in Africa: Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). According to World Health Organization Fact Sheet No. 103 (Aug. 2012), key facts about Ebola hemorrhagic fever include the following: • The Ebola virus causes severe viral hemorrhagic fever (VHF) outbreaks in humans. • Viral hemorrhagic fever outbreaks have a case fatality rate of up to 90%. • Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks occur primarily in remote villages in Central and West Africa, near tropical rainforests. • The virus is transmitted to people from wild

Photo taken from Sunday Monitor showed health officials burying Nathan Biryamubaho, the latest casualty of the Marburg disease in Uganda

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animals and spreads in the human population through human-to-human transmission resulting from close contact with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people. • There is no treatment or vaccine available for either people or animals. In July 2012, 20 cases of Ebola hemorrhagic fever, including 14 deaths, were reported by the Ministry of Health (MoH) of Uganda in Kibaale district. In a July 29 WHO report, WHO confirmed that the MoH in Uganda has declared an Ebola outbreak in the western part of Uganda. In an October 4 WHO report, the Ugandan health authorities announced the end of the Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreak in Kibaale district after the last confirmed case was discharged from the hospital on August 24. During the outbreak, 24 probable and confirmed cases were recorded, of these, only seven patients survived. Meanwhile, according to an August 17 WHO report, the DRC’s Ministry of Health declared an outbreak of Ebola hemorrhagic fever in the Isiro and Dungu Health Zones of Province Orientale. From only 10 suspected cases (9 in Isiro and 1 in Dungu) and 6 deaths (5 deaths in Isiro and 1 in Dungu) on August 17, the reported number of cases based on an October 26 WHO report went up to 52 (35 laboratory confirmed, 17 probable), 25 of these have been fatal (12 confirmed, 13 probable).

Marburg hemorrhagic fever in Uganda.

While Uganda is now Ebola virus-free, another deadly virus that causes hemorrhagic fever is afflicting the country. In an October 21 WHO report, the health authorities of Uganda has declared an outbreak of Marburg hemorrhagic fever (MHF) in Kitumba sub-county, Kabale

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district in South-western Uganda. In a subsequent WHO report dated October 22, a total of nine confirmed and probable cases were reported with five recorded deaths already. According to the WHO website, Marburg hemorrhagic fever (MHF) is a “viral haemorrhagic fever and a severe and highly fatal disease caused by a virus from the same family as the one that causes Ebola haemorrhagic fever.” Ebola and MHF are “rare, but have a capacity to cause dramatic outbreaks with high fatality.” The Marburg virus is transmitted through “contact blood or other body fluids (faeces, vomitus, urine, saliva, and respiratory secretions) with high virus concentration, especially when these fluids contain blood.” One can also get infected through infected semen and studies have shown that the virus can still be detected in the semen seven weeks after clinical recovery. It would appear however that more dangerous microbes are not the only ones posing a threat to the health of mankind.

Beware the Asian tiger mosquito. As early

as 2001, a University of Florida research already warned that a hotter climate brought about by global warming would make the deadly Asian tiger mosquito even more dangerous. The Asian tiger mosquito, identified through its black and white striped legs and body, is known for transmitting many viral pathogens, such as West Nile virus (WNV), Yellow fever virus, St. Louis encephalitis, dengue fever, and Chikungunya fever. “Our research shows that, like many mosquitoes, this species [Asian tiger mosquito] breeds faster as the temperature gets higher,” said Barry Alto, a University of Florida entomology doctoral student and co-author of the study appearing today in the Journal of Medical Entomology. “If global warming

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The deadly Asian tiger mosquito Wikipedia page on Aedes albopictus

trends continue, the Asian tiger mosquito may become common in places it’s not found today.” Alto also said that the Asian tiger mosquito “has spread widely in the last two decades, transported in shipments of used automobile tires containing its eggs.” Alto added, “Warmer regions of North and South America, Europe and Africa now harbor the species, known scientifically as Aedes albopictus. It was first reported in the United States in 1985 and has reached at least 25 states, mainly in the East and South.”

Global warming and the emergence of West Nile virus in the U.S. A 2009 Environment Health

Perspective study discussed how global warming was a major factor in the emergence of the West Nile virus in the U.S. In the study entitled “Infectious Disease in a Warming World: How Weather Influenced West Nile Virus in the United States (2001–2005),” authors Jonathan E. Soverow, Gregory A. Wellenius, David N. Fisman and Murray A. Mittleman concluded that “warmer temperatures, elevated humidity, and heavy precipitation increased the rate of human WNV infection in the United States independent of season and each others’ effects.”

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According to a Sept. 2010 article, “Are mosquitoes becoming more dangerous?,” on the Mother Nature Network site, the West Nile virus was a disease known only in Africa prior to 1999. After its first reported case in New York, the virus began to spread in the U.S. In 2002, 4,000 Americans were reportedly infected, while about 10,000 caught West Nile in 2003. In 2010, there were 144 cases and three deaths. After eight years, an average of 3,692 cases and 153 deaths a year were reported. As of October 23, 2012, the Center for Disease Control said that

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there are 4,213 confirmed and probable cases of West Nile, 219 of these have been fatal. The aforementioned article also blamed global warming and global travel for being the main culprits for “increasingly turning U.S. mosquitoes into a perennial, potentially deadly threat, much like some of their more infamous relatives overseas.” According to the U.S. National Library of Medicine, West Nile virus is spread when a mosquito bites

Interactive Infographic taken from “Are mosquitoes becoming more dangerous?,” by Russell McLendon, Sept. 8, 2010, Mother Nature Network

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an infected bird then bites a person. It may also be spread through blood transfusions and organ transplants. An infected mother can also spread the virus to her child through breast milk.

31,061 dengue cases this year, or a 182% increase. Australia, meanwhile, recorded a 116% increase from only 567 to 1,223 cases; Lao PDR with a 110% increase, Vietnam with a 24% increase, the Philippines with a 12% increase and Malaysia with an 11% increase.

Dengue cases on the upswing in many countries. Aside from West Nile virus, another

Global warming and mosquito- and tickborne diseases. According to an April 11 Yale

vector-borne disease that has continued to claim the lives of people globally is dengue.

Daily News article, several leading climate scientists and public health researchers believe that global warming “will lead to higher incidence and more intense versions” of diseases such as tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, dengue and Lyme disease.

In 2012, several countries have reported a spike in the number of dengue cases. Based on the Dengue Situation Update (September 20, 2012) coming from the Western Pacific Regional Office of the World Health Organization, Australia, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam have seen an increase in the number of dengue cases in 2012, with the Philippines having the most number of reported dengue cases in both 2011 and 2012 at 78,218 and 87,649, respectively.

Maria Diuk-Wasser, assistant professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health warned, “global warming may increase the infection rates of mosquito-borne diseases by creating a more mosquito-friendly habitat. Warming and the floods associated with it are likely to increase rates of both malaria and dengue, a debilitating viral disease found in

Of these countries, Cambodia registered the biggest increase year-on-year; from only 11,017 in 2011 to

Cumulative reported number of dengue cases in 2012 and 2011 (for the same time period), by country Weekly or Monthly Trend

No. reported cases 2012

2011

2012/2011 ratio

Australia*

1,223

567

2.2

Cambodia

31,061

11,017

2.8

Lao PDR

4,613

2,195

2.1

Malaysia

15,268

13,743

1.1

Philippines

87,649

78,218

1.1

Singapore

3,109

4,131

0.8

Vietnam

36,547

29,487

1.2

Australia: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are present only in Northern Queensland and Torres Strait Islands Table from Dengue Situation Update (September 20, 2012), Western Pacific Regional Office of the World Health Organization

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Will mobile maps become the go-to apps?

tropical areas and transmitted by mosquito bites.” Furthermore, “The direct effects of temperature increase are an increase in immature mosquito development, virus development and mosquito biting rates, which increase contact rates (biting) with humans. Indirect effects are linked to how humans manage water given increased uncertainty in the water supply caused by climate change,” DiukWasser said. A fact sheet prepared by the Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR) entitled “Health Implications of Global Warming: Vector-borne and Water-borne diseases,” believes that aside from the mosquito, ticks will also become more potent as a result of global warming. Like the mosquito, ticks “maintain multiple and diverse disease agents (including bacteria, viruses, and parasites) and serve as bridging vectors between animal reservoirs of the disease and humans.” The authors believe that “changing weather patterns associated with climate change have induced shifts in the distribution of vector ticks carrying Lyme disease and are convinced that “the tick that carries Lyme disease will expand into Canada.” According to the U.S. National Library of Medicine, the bacteria Borrelia burgdorferi, carried by blacklegged ticks, causes Lyme disease. It was first reported in Old Lyme, Connecticut, in 1975, thus the name. A person gets infected with the disease once bitten by an infected tick. Initial symptoms are similar those of flu, but if left untreated, Lyme disease can spread to the brain, heart, and joints, and could be fatal. CDC reported a total of 24,364 cases of Lyme disease in the U.S. in 2011, from 17,029 cases in 2001.

Water-borne diseases also affected by climate change. The PSR fact sheet also warned

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The Department of Health’s ‘Disease Surveillance Report’ reported a 62.35% increase in the number of leptospirosis cases in 2012

that water-borne diseases like diarrhea and cholera would worsen with climate change due to “increased temperatures, flooding, and other changes in the water cycle.” Cholera, “a diarrheal disease caused by bacteria that occur naturally in rivers, estuaries, and coastal waters” has been predicted to become more dangerous as scientists have observed “a relationship between the increase in sea-surface temperature and the onset of cholera epidemics.” The fact sheet added, “strong El Nino cycles and other climate variables provide a predictive capacity for cholera epidemics.” West African country Sierra Leone is the latest country to be hit by a cholera outbreak. Based on the latest WHO Cholera update dated October 8, since the onset of the Cholera outbreak earlier this year, a total of 20, 736 cases have been recorded as of October 2 in 12 out of the 13 districts of Sierra Leone. The disease claimed the lives of 280 individuals with a case fatality rate of 1.35%. This is the country’s worst cholera outbreak in 15 years.

Leptospirosis in the Philippines. Data coming

from the Department of Health’s (DOH) “Disease Surveillance Report” showed a total of 2,471 leptospirosis cases nationwide from January 1 to August 18, 2012. This is 62.35% higher compared to the same time period last year with 1,522 cases. But although 2012 saw more leptospirosis cases than in 2011, the number of deaths is lower by 10. Per a

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fact sheet from the PubMed Health site of the U.S. National Library of Medicine, leptospirosis is caused by exposure to the leptospira bacteria, which is found when fresh water has been contaminated by animal urine. As seen below, Region X had the most number of leptospirosis cases at 926. DOH explained that this was due to the flash floods in Cagayan de Oro brought by typhoon Sendong in December 2011. According to a 2010 review, “Climate Change, Flooding, Urbanisation and Leptospirosis: Fuelling the Fire?” by Colleen L. Lau, Lee D. Smythe, Scott B. Craig and Philip Weinstein, in the Australian

Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene journal: “(T)he combination of climate change, flooding, population growth and urbanisation will almost certainly lead to an escalation in the global burden of disease from leptospirosis. Areas at particularly high risk include urban slums, low-lying areas and small island states.” Based on the table on the opposite page, Manila is expected to be the 13th most populous city in the world by 2025, with about 14.8 million people. As such, the probability of leptospirosis infecting more people is high, considering the fact that the city of Manila is also considered high-risk for tropical storms and medium-risk for flooding.

LEPTOSPIROSIS CASES & DEATHS BY REGION PHILIPPINES, 2011 & 2012 Region

Cases 2012

I

Deaths

2011

% Change

2012

CFR (%)

2011

CFR (%)

58

33

75.76

12

20.69

6

18.18

II

150

75

100.00

12

8.00

5

6.67

III

164

144

13.89

4

2.44

10

6.94

46

62

-25.81

8

17.39

4

6.45

IV-A IV-B

13

22

-40.91

1

7.69

0

0.00

V

124

83

49.90

9

7.26

3

3.61

VI

454

396

14.65

37

8.15

47

11.87

VII

82

40

105.00

3

3.66

2

5.00

VIII

59

57

3.51

3

5.08

9

15.79

IX

18

35

-48.57

3

16.67

6

17.14

X

926

10

9160.00

9

0.97

1

10.00

XI

111

121

-8.26

5

5.41

7

5.79

7

7

0.00

1

14.29

0

0.00

XII ARMM

2

0

0

0.00

0

CAR

7

13

-46.15

0

0.00

4

30.77

25

47

-46.81

0

0.00

0

0.00

NCR

225

377

-40.32

21

9.33

35

9.28

Total

2471

1522

62.35

129

5.22

139

9.13

CARAGA

Table from “Disease Surveillance Report” (August 12-18, 2012), Department of Health

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Will mobile maps become the go-to apps?

PREDICTED POPULATION BY 2025 IN SELECTED MEGACITIES AND THEIR RISK OF FLOODING Rank

City

Population by 2025 (million)

Risk of Flood

Storm surge

Tropical storm

1

Tokyo, Japan

36.4

+

++

++

2

Mumbai, India

26.4

++

++

+

3

Delhi, India

22.5

++

4

Dhaka, Bangladesh

22.0

+++

5

Sao Paulo, Brazil

21.4

+

6

Mexico City, Mexico

21.0

+

7

New York-Newark,USA

20.6

8

Kolkata, India

9

+

+++

+

++

++

20.6

+++

++

+++

Shanghai, China

19.4

++

10

Karachi, Pakistan

19.1

++

11

Lagos, Nigeria

15.8

+

12

Cairo, Egypt

15.6

++

13

Manila, Philippines

14.8

++

++ ++

+

+

+++

Source: “Climate Change, Flooding, Urbanisation and Leptospirosis: Fuelling the Fire?,” p. 634

So while it may seem that this story was written to encourage more “doomsday preppers” or frighten everyone of an imminent global pandemic that would result in the demise of mankind, this piece aims to inform everyone of the dangers present in our world today and in the future. For as Dr. Levy has aptly said in her book, “We have no idea when the next Ebola virus or mad cow disease might emerge in our backyard or when some ordinary microbe may swap genes with a deadly germ to create a super pathogen even more virulent and quickly spreading than AIDS. On any given day, one of these mutant diseases might strike down any one of us or someone we love so we must teach ourselves how to be on high alert.”

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News & Strategy Alerts Health/Lifestyle

What’s killing Filipinos? Disaster and hunger Innovating technologies in information and communication, as well as educating the people on what to do during disasters are ways in which the impact of disasters can be reduced To address hunger, Conditional Cash Transfers should be coupled with proper targeting of beneficiaries and drastic improvements in education and health

Disaster. The Philippines is the third most disaster-prone country in the world, after Pacific countries Tonga and Vanuatu, according to the “World Risk Report 2012” of the Germany-based Alliance Development Works in cooperation with the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security and The Nature Conservancy. The recent world index, based on an assessment of disaster risk that a society or country is exposed to by external and internal factors, shows that island states are particularly exposed to the natural hazards of cyclones, flooding, and sea level rise due to their proximity to the sea. Because of the vulnerability of the Philippines to natural calamities, coping and adaptive capacities of the country must be addressed to reduce lives and properties lost to these disasters. In its “Philippine Disaster Report 2011,” the Citizens’ Disaster Response Center (CDRC) says natural disasters in 2011 cost the economy P26 billion and affected 15.3 million people - a jump from the 6.75 million people in 2010. According to the CDRC report, the number of documented natural disasters in the Philippines surged 50% in 2011, making it the world’s most disaster-hit country in 2011. In terms of casualties,

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Top most disaster-prone countries

Table from “World Risk Report 2012,” Alliance Development Works

the Philippines placed second to Japan with 1,924 people killed. This was due largely to Typhoon Sendong, which hit the country in December and claimed more than 1,400 lives. The world risk report recommends countries that have been identified as high risk to improve the protection of its coral reefs, a primary line of defense against coastal hazards, including tsunamis. This way, the impact of disasters in countries near the sea may be reduced. Investing in information and communication technologies, as in the Department of Science and Technology’s (DOST) Project Noah, will aid Filipinos in preparing for disaster with timely and relevant information. Capacity-building will also empower governments and communities to work together that they may adequately respond to disaster even at the local level.

Hunger. Another critical issue is hunger. The August

2012 survey of the Social Weather Stations sends a disturbing message: the number of Filipino families experiencing hunger has increased, according to a Sept. 29 Manila Times report. The survey results showed 21% of respondents (an estimated 4.3 million Filipino households) went hungry in the last three months, an almost 3-point rise from the 18.4% recorded in May. According to the Manila Times report, the SWS survey reveals that in Metro Manila, overall hunger

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increased by 10 points to 26% (738,000 families), in Mindanao, by two points to 30.3% (1.5 million families), while the balance of Luzon (Luzon without Metro Manila) registered 16% (1.4 million families) and the Visayas registered 17.3% (670,000 families). The SWS survey is telling. The “State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012” by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, International Fund for Agricultural Development, and World Food Programme suggests that among regions across the globe, Southeast Asia showed the biggest improvement in terms of hunger reduction, except for the Philippines. The report said undernourished people in the region fell by 51.2% between 19902012 due to economic growth and policies to feed the poor. In the Philippines, hungry Filipinos rose from 15 million to 16 million people, a 5.4% increase in the last two decades. An article in The CenSEI Report by CenSEI Managing Director Ricardo Saludo, “Are We Losing the War on Hunger,” raises questions about the success of the government’s CCT (conditional cash transfer) program in fighting hunger. He says, “[T] he continued rise in hunger after nearly two years of boosting CCT cannot but raise doubts about its effectiveness in filling stomachs.” The CCT, he posits, would be more fruitful if education and health care for beneficiaries are improved.

TECHNOLOGY

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From lab freezer to infant cradle

in vitro fertilization (IVF) using fresh human egg cells or those from the general population. Based on a May 2012 New York Times article, the technology for egg freezing has improved sharply over the past decade. The procedure, which the ASRM used to label as experimental, costs between $8,000 and $18,000.

The American Society for Reproductive Medicine has declared egg freezing as a safe and effective fertility technique Findings that favor freezing human eggs for later use could spur more women in developed nations and major cities to defer motherhood Freezing human eggs, which allows young women to preserve their eggs for later use, should no longer be considered an experimental technique to preserve fertility because of the “success of the procedure and the encouraging preliminary data for safety,” based on the new guidelines on the medical procedure released by the reproductive specialist group American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM). In the guidelines, the ASRM cites a study that found the pregnancy success rate for younger women who use frozen-and-thawed eggs for their infertility treatment is the same as in women using fresh ones. ASRM also recommends egg freezing or oocyte cryopreservation to cancer patients facing infertility due to chemotherapy. For pregnancy to occur, the frozen human egg cells, stored in tubes in a liquid nitrogen storage tank, will be thawed and then fertilized by injecting a single sperm—a procedure called Intracytoplasmic sperm injection (or ICSI). Embryos are implanted into the uterus using a catheter. In addition, no increase in birth defects, developmental disorders, or chromosomal abnormalities have been reported in children born from frozen eggs when compared to those born from

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According to Extend Fertility, the market leader in egg freezing, female fertility peaks at age 27, and by a woman’s mid-30s and early 40’s, the chances of getting pregnant using her own egg decreases to less than 10%. In Singapore, several fertility experts says egg freezing should be allowed to all women in the country, as it can help reverse the falling birth rate in Singapore, where only those women who might lose their fertility through medical treatments are allowed to undergo the procedure, according to a March 2012 Straits Times article posted on Asia News Network. Dr. Loh Seong Feei, medical director of the Thomson Fertility Centre, said, “Later marriages and motherhood translate into more subfertility issues as female age increases.” He further said the growing number of Singaporean women getting married after the age of 30 has caused fertility and birth rates to slump to their lowest level last year. With developments in human egg freezing, more women in developed nations and major cities, such as Singapore, may choose to defer motherhood, thereby impacting population growth and age distribution. Global development agencies should undertake studies and recommend policy measures regarding this possible demographic trend, which cannot but impact on the world.

• October 29-November 11, 2012

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TCR Volume 2 Issue No 37  

October 29 - November 11, 2012

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