032 M a rket R ev i ew 2012 an d Indus t r y Out l o o k
THAI OIL PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
and long rainy seasons in Southeast Asia depressed the
Power Industry
regional solvent market. In addition, concerns about recurring
On April 26 this year, Thailand’s peak power demand reached
floods in the last quarter thwarted downstream industries
26,121 MW, a rise of 8.4% and 9.3% over that in 2010 and
along with solvent demand. For the year, domestic solvent
2011. The forecast peak in 2013 is 27,443 MW, or a 5.1%
demand enjoyed healthy growth of 4.5% year-on-year.
rise year-on-year.
C l e a n P ro d u c t a n d P e t ro c h e m i c a l Ta n k e r
Meanwhile, the government approved an increase in the
Market
variable electricity cost (FT) to reflect rising fuel costs. The
The overall tanker market edged up in 2012, thanks to the
Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) approved the FT rise
growth of the regional economy. Refinery shutdowns and
for September – December 2012 by only 0.18 Baht per unit
several accidents in many regional petrochemical refineries
versus what should have been 0.3824 Baht. The difference
resulted in more active movement of petroleum and
of 0.2024 Baht per unit was absorbed by EGAT, so the
petrochemical products, a boon to the tanker industry. With
revised electricity tariff was 3.71 Baht per unit.
ANNUAL REPORT 2012
few new tankers coming onto the market, the transport cost increased over that of 2011.
According to the National Power Development Plan 20122030 (third revision, or PDP 2010 Rev3), the government
Ethanol Market In 2012, domestic demand for ethanol, the main component for gasohol production, surged by 9% from last year to about 1.33 million liters per day as a result of the policy to widen the price gap between gasoline and gasohol, particularly gasohol E20, which registered a 40% jump over the demand of 2011.
plans to buy 5,400 MW from IPPs and 1,350 from SPPs with scheduled commercial operation dates (COD) in 20212026. The PDP 2010 Rev3 also features more alternative energy and renewable energy, going from 5% to 10% or from 4,433 MW to 9,516 MW; many private investors therefore plan to invest more in power generation from such types of energy. In the future, the purchase of power from these
On the supply side, there were a total of 21 ethanol plants,
types of energy will use feed-in tariffs (that is, determining
two of which producing ethanol from cassava were
the power generation total unit price according to the cost of
commissioned this year. The total ethanol capacity was
generation from each technology) and will abolish adders so
3.38 million liters per day, with the actual average output
as to lower the price of electricity produced from alternative
of 1.9 million liters per day (as of July 2012).
and renewable energy as technology develops.
The average reference price of ethanol dropped from 24.31
In a related move, ERC announced on December 4 this year
Baht in 2011 to 20.83 Baht per liter this year because of the
an invitation to IPP power purchase amounting to 5,400 MW.
change in price calculation from cost-plus to actual-price
The tender offer is due on April 29, 2013, and a short list
average. Since the capacity far exceeded demand, ethanol
will be announced in June-July 2013.
producers competed with one another on prices to retain as much production capacity as possible. In 2012, producers
Global Market and Economy in 2013
of ethanol from molasses were more competitive than those
The IMF issued a forecast of the world economy (as of October
using cassava because of their lower raw-material cost.
2012), projecting the 2013 economic growth at 3.6%,