The European Budget Post-2013 and its Effects on EU-Turkey Relations
performance in relation to the EU at the time of accession resembled that of Turkey in about 10 years) is expected to take over 30 years.23 Conclusion The analysis of the current situation and the prospective development of Turkey as well as the current state of discussion of the EU budget 2014-2020 suggest a number of conclusions: first, for Turkey as a candidate country, little is going to change in terms of financial support until 2020. Except for slight adaptations to content and delivery, the policy instruments aiming to support Turkey on its way to EU membership are expected to stay as they are. The amount foreseen by the Commission is neither significantly higher than the current financial picture nor lower. Second, from a budgetary perspective, even under the most favorable conditions - steadily high economic growth rates, successful structural reforms by the Turkish government and a moderate increase of the EU budget - the enlargement-related costs would be very high for both sides: on the side of the EU, the direct costs related to support of Turkey alone would exceed current budgetary levels. As special phasing-in provisions used in other enlargements to ease the burden on the budget do not appear viable, the only way to cope with the costs would be to cut priority areas in the costs for all other regions and thus, to the detriment of the EU as a whole. On the other hand, the effect of EU funding for Turkey would at best be marginal in relation to the cost of compliance with EU standards, particularly with regard to program implementation and environment standards. Considering the burden the accession of Turkey would put on the budgets of both the EU and Turkey, the advantages of enlargement do not outweigh the disadvantages. Therefore, from a budgetary point of view, the eventual rejection of membership would be in the interest of both parties.
23. Speech of Commissioner Stefan F端le during the plenary debate on the Progress Report of Turkey 2010 on 08 March 2011 in the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
Published on Feb 16, 2012
A Publication based on the International Conference organised at the European Parliament/Brussels by Dr. ELENI THEOCHAROUS, Member of the Eu...