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The European Budget Post-2013 and its Effects on EU-Turkey Relations

1. Turkey now; Turkey in the future 1.1 Demographic developments With a population of 72.78 million, Turkey ranked 18th in the world in 2010. If Turkey joined the EU today, it would be the second-largest member state behind Germany. Due to the fast growth of the Turkish population and a corresponding decline in the German population, Turkey would be the largest member state after 2020. According to forecasts by the United Nations, the population of Turkey is expected to keep growing until 2050 when it will reach its peak of 91.6 million people2. After 2050, it is predicted that the population will stagnate and, later on, slowly decline. Table 1: Projections of demographic development in Turkey as compared to the EU (2010-2050)

year population in million share of the Turkish population Turkey (TR) Germany EU27

EU 29 (EU27 + Croatia + TR)

EU27 + TR

EU 29

-

12.7 %

-

2010 72.75211

82.3021

500.4432

2015 77.003

81.471 506.317 510.67822

13.2 %

-

2020

80.753

80.988

510.950

596.014

13.6 %

13.5 %

2025

83.984

80.332

514.147

602.384

14.0 %

13.9 %

2030

86.665

79.469

515.847

606.697

14.4 %

14.3 %

2035

88.770

78.445

516.101

608.979

14.7 %

14.6 %

2040

90.302

77.305

515.376

609.702

14.9 %

14.8 %

2045

91.251

76.067

513.899

609.091

15.1 %

15.0 %

2050

91.617

74.781

511.662

607.138

15.2 %

15.1 %

1. Projection differs slightly (by less than 1 million) from the Eurostat estimates for 2010. 2. EU27 + Croatia, as Croatia is expected to join in 2013 and Turkey is not considered able to join before 2020.

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision; own calculations.

2. Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision.

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REIMER BOEGE

Turkey on the European Doorstep  

A Publication based on the International Conference organised at the European Parliament/Brussels by Dr. ELENI THEOCHAROUS, Member of the Eu...

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