Journal of International Relations, European, Economic and Social Studies
Although the political situation has contributed decisively to this position, another aspect is just as important: Turkey has a big population, and that would make it the second-largest EU member state. It has, however, a weak economy, one comparable to that of Romania. This discrepancy would require that Turkey receive significant support from the EU budget. Drawing from current discussions about the EU budget post-2013, this article aims to assess, from a budgetary point of view, the implications both for the EU and Turkey in two areas:
1. in the short term until 2020 with Turkey retaining its candidate status;
2. in the medium term post-2020 with Turkey being a full member of the European Union. As negotiations for the budget post-2013 have only started, it would be presumptuous to try to quantify Turkish receipts as a candidate country during the pre-2020 period. The same holds true, even more, for the second scenario of full membership since this would have to project even farther into the future and would be nothing but idle speculation. Nevertheless, it is possible to make an educated guess as to whether the EU budget could cope with the enlargement by drawing from experiences with previous enlargements and current rules as well as with indications about the future direction in the two biggest areas of the budget, the Common Agricultural Policy and the Regional Policy. To this end, the second section of this article will give an overview of Turkey, i.e. facts and trends concerning the demography of Turkey and the economy of the country as well as the impact of each upon the EU. The third section will be dedicated to discussing the future EU budget and the role of Turkey. It will describe, in context, the EU budget support for Turkey and link it to the future until 2020 as foreseen by the European Parliament and by the European Commission. Further, some general reform trends in the EU policies will be highlighted and implications derived for potential EU membership of Turkey after 2020. The fourth and final section will draw some conclusions and make recommendations concerning future relations of the EU with Turkey. Turkey on the European doorstep
A Publication based on the International Conference organised at the European Parliament/Brussels by Dr. ELENI THEOCHAROUS, Member of the Eu...