South Caucasus: new paradigms for peace and development in the 21st century (2008)

World of Diplomacy (journal of the MFA of Azerbaijan), No. 18-19, April 2008 Since the resolution of the conflicts in the region would also imply the restoration of the conflict areas’ multiethnic composition, under ethnic federalism will inevitably lead to disputes over “ethnic territories�. Especially in the ArmenianAzerbaijani conflict, considering that Nagorno-Karabakh is situated inside of Azerbaijan and was completely surrounded by ethnic Azeri-populated areas, and in Abkhazia, where ethnic Georgians outnumbered ethnic Abkhaz, the restoration of pre-war ethnic demographics, while important for peace, also constitutes one of the major security dilemmas to deal with.

In such circumstances, federalism, especially ethnic federalism, if not complemented with integrative strategies, would serve to further entrench ethnic divisions. The federal entities, and their constituent parts, having received wideranging self-governance verging on a de facto independence, would have no incentives to cooperate with the central governments. This would in turn render governance ineffective and may lead to renewed conflict.

In order to neutralize negative effects of ethnic federalism, particularly ethnic entrenchment, it should be complemented with parallel integrative mechanisms, which would provide channels of communication and incentives to communicate by binding the interests of the former foes and transforming them into allies.

4. The EU as the Major Center of Gravity for the South Caucasus The EU can serve as an excellent example for South Caucasus nations to complement fragmentation with integration in order to neutralize the negative effects of the former. In general terms, this is possible through applying similar formula and practices adopted previously by the EU in terms of economic and political integration and creating mutually beneficial economic and political partnerships, which would gradually transform themselves into supra-national structures.

Integration limited to South Caucasus is not viable However, the fundamental truth about integration in the South Caucasus is that regional integration within South Caucasus is not possible if not supported and complemented by the parallel process of wider European integration. The region is ridden with too many and too deep conflicts and rivalries, which disallow any meaningful locally driven integration processes limited to the region itself. In this regard, the failure of the short-lived independent Transcaucasus Confederation (1918) and Transcaucasian Soviet Federal Socialist Republic (1922-1936) should serve as learning examples for policy makers inside and outside the region.

Furthermore, the South Caucasus is a mini-region with tough neighborhood surrounded by greater regional players, including Russia, which still views the region its sphere of influence. Therefore, despite its significant economic potential, South Caucasus cannot provide independently for its security, political and 6