Dynamic Itinerary - PR Solid Waste Authority by SWANA Caribbean Chapter

Appendix C-1: Base Case Scenario Model Puerto Rico Solid Waste Management Authority

Solid Waste Processing Capacity Model Scenario 1 Base Case East WTE online year 7 North WTE online year 6

Consolidation to 8 landfills High diversion rate

Assumed generation rate =

5.56

lbs/person/day

Year # Year

2004

2005

1 2006

2 2007

3 2008

4 2009

5 2010

6 2011

7 2012

8 2013

9 2014

10 2015

11 2016

12 2017

13 2018

14 2019

15 2020

16 2021

17 2022

18 2023

19 2024

20 2025

21 2026

22 2027

23 2028

24 2029

25 2030

Generation Projected population Generation rate/person entering landfills (lbs/pers*day) Annual generated waste in Tons

3,905,116 5.56 3,962,521

3,929,885 5.56 3,987,654

3,956,003 5.56 4,014,156

3,974,292 5.56 4,032,714

3,992,749 5.56 4,051,442

4,011,368 5.56 4,070,335

4,030,152 5.56 4,089,395

4,045,869 5.56 4,105,343

4,061,648 5.56 4,121,354

4,077,488 5.56 4,137,427

4,093,391 5.56 4,153,564

4,110,528 5.56 4,170,953

4,122,859 5.56 4,183,465

4,135,228 5.56 4,196,016

4,147,633 5.56 4,208,603

4,160,076 5.56 4,221,229

4,172,242 5.56 4,233,574

4,180,586 5.56 4,242,041

4,188,947 5.56 4,250,525

4,197,325 5.56 4,259,026

4,205,720 5.56 4,267,544

4,214,387 5.56 4,276,338

4,222,559 5.56 4,284,631

4,231,005 5.56 4,293,201

4,239,467 5.56 4,301,787

4,247,945 5.56 4,310,390

4,256,441 5.56 4,319,011

Total waste diversion volume w/o C&D in Tons C&D Waste before entering WTE

13.11% 329,421 -

11.56% 341,457 -

15.3% 614,567 -

17% 685,561 -

19% 769,774 -

21% 854,770 -

23% 940,561 -

25% 1,026,336 -

27% 1,112,766 69,855

29% 1,199,854 160,835

31% 1,287,605 156,914

33% 1,376,414 166,163

35% 1,464,213 161,686

35% 1,468,606 162,171

35% 1,473,011 162,658

35% 1,477,430 163,146

35% 1,481,751 163,623

35% 1,484,714 163,950

35% 1,487,684 165,936

35% 1,490,659 166,268

35% 1,493,640 166,601

35% 1,496,718 166,944

35% 1,499,621 167,268

35% 1,502,620 167,602

35% 1,505,626 167,937

35% 1,508,636 168,273

35% 1,511,654 168,610

Total volume reduced by waste diversion efforts in Tons

329,421

341,457

614,567

685,561

769,774

854,770

940,561

1,026,336

1,182,621

1,360,689

1,444,519

1,542,577

1,625,899

1,630,777

1,635,669

1,640,576

1,645,374

1,648,664

1,653,620

1,656,927

1,660,241

1,663,662

1,666,888

1,670,222

1,673,563

1,676,910

1,680,264

3,646,198 0.36%

3,399,589 -6.76%

3,347,153 -1.54%

3,281,668 -1.96%

3,215,565 -2.01%

3,148,834 -2.08%

3,079,007 -2.22%

2,938,733 -4.56%

2,776,738 -5.51%

2,709,045 -2.44%

2,628,376 -2.98%

2,557,566 -2.69%

2,565,239 0.30%

2,572,934 0.30%

2,580,653 0.30%

2,588,200 0.29%

2,593,376 0.20%

2,596,905 0.14%

2,602,099 0.20%

2,607,303 0.20%

2,612,676 0.21%

2,617,742 0.19%

2,622,978 0.20%

2,628,224 0.20%

2,633,480 0.20%

2,638,747 0.20%

Waste diversion Waste Diversion Rate (The reported ADS diversion rate from the "Tasa Reciclaje Informe Final 2004 y 2005" does not include C&D in the waste stream. To calculate the percentage, the amount of waste diverted reported by the ADS was divided by the amount of waste generated on this model.)

Volume requiring disposal at landfill or WTE facilities in tons Annual waste diversion volume growth rate

3,633,100

Waste to Energy Diversion North WTE Facility 1. Annual Capacity at new technology facility in Tons (1,560 tpd at 85% capability)

483,990

2. Actual Annual Disposal Rate at North WTE new technology facility in Tons

436,888

426,237

423,859

468,073

469,477

470,885

472,298

473,679

474,627

475,272

476,223

477,175

478,159

479,086

480,044

481,004

481,966

482,930

3. Ash produced from WTE facility (25% by weight)Transferred to Humacao Landfill

109,222

106,559

105,965

117,018

117,369

117,721

118,075

118,420

118,657

118,818

119,056

119,294

119,540

119,771

120,011

120,251

120,492

120,733

4. Available Capacity at North WTE (1-2)

47,102

57,753

60,131

15,917

14,513

13,105

11,692

10,311

9,363

8,718

7,767

6,815

5,831

4,904

3,946

2,986

2,024

1,060

1. Annual Capacity at new technology facility in Tons (1,350 tpd at 85% capability)

418,838

2. Actual Annual Disposal Rate at West WTE new technology facility in Tons

338,655

420,002

409,763

397,561

386,851

388,011

389,175

390,343

391,484

392,267

401,348

402,151

402,955

403,785

404,568

405,378

406,188

407,001

407,815

3. Ash produced from WTE facility (25% by weight)Transferred to Penuelas New Landfill

84,664

105,000

102,441

99,390

96,713

97,003

97,294

97,586

97,871

98,067

100,337

100,538

100,739

100,946

101,142

101,344

101,547

101,750

101,954

West WTE Facility

4. Available Capacity at West WTE (1-2) Net volume requiring disposal at landfill facilities in tons

Assumptions Landfill Disposal Closure in 2007 1. Aguadilla Move to Cabo Rojo Annual disposal rate in Tons / yr West WTE Remaining actual useful life in yrs Volume available in Tons Volume transffered from others Growth of volume of Aguadilla C&D Waste Recovered before entering WTE (17.1%) Volume transferred to WTE Closure in Move to West WTE

2011 2. Anasco Penuelas New Annual disposal rate in Tons / yr Remaining actual useful life in yrs Volume available in Tons Volume transffered from others Growth of volume of Anasco C&D Waste Recovered before entering WTE (17.1%) Volume transferred to WTE

Closure in Move to West WTE

2012 3. Arecibo North WTE Annual disposal rate in Tons / yr Remaining actual useful life in yrs Volume available in Tons Volume transffered from others Vega Baja Transferred to North WTE Growth of volume of Arecibo C&D Waste Recovered before entering WTE (17.1%) Volume transferred to West WTE

Closure in Move to

Salinas

Closure in Move to

Ponce

80,182

3,633,100

3,646,198

3,399,589

3,347,153

3,281,668

3,215,565

3,148,834

3,079,007

2,684,742

(1,164) 2,121,586

9,075

21,276

31,987

30,826

29,662

28,495

27,353

26,570

17,489

16,687

15,882

15,052

14,269

13,460

12,649

11,837

11,023

2,069,865

2,000,493

1,904,875

1,910,589

1,916,321

1,922,070

1,927,691

1,931,546

1,927,764

1,931,619

1,935,483

1,939,471

1,943,232

1,947,119

1,951,013

1,954,915

1,958,825

48,335 3.0 145,451 0

48,509 2.0 96,942

45,228 1.1 51,713 0

0 0 0 0 44,531 7,615 36,916

0 0 0 0 43,660 7,466 36,194

0 0 0 0 42,780 7,315 35,465

0 0 0 0 41,892 7,164 34,729

0 0 0 0 40,963 7,005 33,959

0 0 0 0 39,097 6,686 32,411

0 0 0 0 36,942 6,317 30,625

0 0 0 0 36,041 6,163 29,878

0 0 0 0 34,968 5,980 28,989

0 0 0 0 34,026 5,818 28,208

0 0 0 0 34,128 5,836 28,292

0 0 0 0 34,230 5,853 28,377

0 0 0 0 34,333 5,871 28,462

0 0 0 0 34,434 5,888 28,545

0 0 0 0 34,502 5,900 28,603

0 0 0 0 34,549 5,908 28,641

0 0 0 0 34,618 5,920 28,699

0 0 0 0 34,688 5,932 28,756

0 0 0 0 34,759 5,944 28,815

0 0 0 0 34,827 5,955 28,871

0 0 0 0 34,896 5,967 28,929

0 0 0 0 34,966 5,979 28,987

0 0 0 0 35,036 5,991 29,045

0 0 0 0 35,106 6,003 29,103

38,926 6.7 260,424 0

39,066 5.7 221,358 0

36,424 5.1 184,934 0

35,862 4.2 149,072 0

35,161 3.2 113,911 0

34,452 2.3 79,459 0

33,737 1.4 45,721 0

0 0 0 0 32,989 5,641 27,348

0 0 0 0 31,486 5,384 26,102

0 0 0 0 29,751 5,087 24,663

0 0 0 0 29,025 4,963 24,062

0 0 0 0 28,161 4,816 23,346

0 0 0 0 27,402 4,686 22,717

0 0 0 0 27,485 4,700 22,785

0 0 0 0 27,567 4,714 22,853

0 0 0 0 27,650 4,728 22,922

0 0 0 0 27,731 4,742 22,989

0 0 0 0 27,786 4,751 23,035

0 0 0 0 27,824 4,758 23,066

0 0 0 0 27,880 4,767 23,112

0 0 0 0 27,935 4,777 23,158

0 0 0 0 27,993 4,787 23,206

0 0 0 0 28,047 4,796 23,251

0 0 0 0 28,103 4,806 23,298

0 0 0 0 28,159 4,815 23,344

0 0 0 0 28,216 4,825 23,391

0 0 0 0 28,272 4,835 23,438

310,930 8.1 2,508,443 0

312,051 7.0 2,196,392 0

290,945 6.5 1,905,447 0

324,388 4.9 1,581,059 38,525

318,041 4.0 1,263,018 0

311,635 3.1 951,383 0

305,168 2.1 646,215 0

298,401 1.2 347,814 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 20,077 249,029 42,584 206,445

0 0 0 0

284,806 48,702 236,104

242,958 41,546 201,412

235,723 40,309 195,415

229,373 39,223 190,150

230,061 39,340 190,721

230,751 39,458 191,293

231,444 39,577 191,867

232,120 39,693 192,428

232,585 39,772 192,813

232,901 39,826 193,075

233,367 39,906 193,461

233,834 39,986 193,848

234,315 40,068 194,248

234,770 40,146 194,624

235,239 40,226 195,013

235,710 40,306 195,404

236,181 40,387 195,794

236,654 40,468 196,186

2009 4. Arroyo Annual disposal rate in Tons / yr Remaining actual useful life in yrs Volume available in Tons Volume transffered from others

34,150 5.0 171,449 0

34,273 4.0 137,176 0

31,955 3.3 105,221 0

31,462 2.3 73,759 0

30,846 1.4 42,913 0

0 0 0 0

2008 5. Barranquitas Annual disposal rate in Tons / yr Remaining actual useful life in yrs Volume available in Tons Volume transffered from others

22,353 4.0 89,302 0

22,433 3.0 66,869 0

20,916 2.2 45,953 0

20,593 1.2 25,360 0

0 0 0 0

48,622 13.6 659,345 0

48,797 12.5 610,548 0

45,496 12.4 565,052 0

89,325 5.3 475,726 45,228

87,578 4.4 388,148 0

85,814 3.5 302,335 0

84,033 2.6 218,302 0

82,169 1.7 136,132 0

39,329 2.5 96,803 0 39,097

37,161 1.6 59,642 0

0 0 0 0

112,527 6.5 725,859 0

112,933 5.4 612,926 0

105,294 4.8 507,632 0

103,670 3.9 403,962 0

101,642 3.0 302,320 0

99,595 2.0 202,725 0

97,528 4.5 437,429 0

95,365 3.6 342,064 0

91,020 2.8 251,043 0

86,003 1.9 165,040 0

83,906 1.0 81,134 0

0 0 0 0

Closure in Move to

2014 6. Cabo Rojo Penuelas New Annual disposal rate in Tons / yr Remaining actual useful life in yrs Volume available in Tons Volume transffered from others Capacity added through expansion Volume transferred to WTE

Closure in Move to North WTE

2015 7. Carolina East WTE Annual disposal rate in Tons / yr Remaining actual useful life in yrs Volume available in Tons Volume transffered from others

C-1-1