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JOHANNA DANIELSSON ERIK HERNGREN SOFIA JOHNSSON TOMAS LARSSON MATS LINDGREN PETER PERNEMALM

TRAVEL TRENDS IN THE NEW DECENNIUM REPORT FOR KAIROS AGORA TOURISM / KAIROS FUTURE CLUB FEBRUARY 2010


CONTENT C O N TEN T ........................................................................................ 2 TH E REPO RT IN A N U TS H E LL .............................................................. 2 THE BIG ISSUES OF THE NEXT DECENNIUM......................................... 3 THE CLIMATE ISSUE: INVESTMENTS IN LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY ...... 5 I N C R E A S I N G 中 國 的 I NFLUE NC E . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 0  NO RISKS IN THE RATING SOCIETY ...................................................12 TAG-ESCAPISM IN THE CONNECTED SOCIETY?.................................13 N E W D E PTH IN M A RK ETIN G .............................................................. 16 NEO CONSERVATISM – THE BACK PACKERS KIDS AND THEIR VALUES ..17 HUNTING FOR THE LAST DIAMOND ...................................................19 C O N C LU SIO N S ............................................................................... 21 MOVING BEYOND CONTROL… .....................................................21 … O R O N TH E C O N TRA R Y ? ............................................................ 21 SO U R C ES A N D N O TES ..................................................................... 23

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THE REPORT IN A NUTSHELL This report focuses on the big issues that will shape the travel and tourism industry for the next ten years: The climate issue is putting pressure on the tourism industry to invest in long-term sustainability while the consumers are unwilling to contribute to extra costs. New, fast growing markets like e.g. China that will not only increase traveler volumes from these countries but also influence our definition of “normal”. The digitalization and information overflow in our society resulting in the rating society, helping consumers find suitable offers, also putting the industry under pressure and reshaping marketing. The always-connected society where on- or offline is not an issue anymore. Will we get used to always being traceable (with all the advantages) or will there be an increasing need for tag-escape? The new generation of young people, the back packers’ kids, what priorities do they have when they go traveling? There are signs of a so-called “neo-conservatism”, indicating a young generation with not so typically young values. Where did the youth-rebels go? Marketing is facing a completely new logic when consumers take control of the media. Moving from push to pull and interaction. Where and what will the new diamonds of discovery be in the new decennium? The Space and the oceans are areas that promise new experiences. At the same time: More focus on what to do than where to go when the experienced travelers already have been pretty much everywhere. In an overall perspective the big question for the new decennium might be CONTROL. Will the development towards greater volumes and more consumer defined communication result in LESS CONTROL? Or will the increasing pressure occurring from the climate issues and other stress on the environment result in a tighter unified industry with MORE CONTROL?

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THE BIG ISSUES OF THE NEXT DECENNIUM The past year was a challenging one for many players in the tourism industry. Will change come in 2010? What can we expect from the coming decade? What will the world be like in 2020? This report focuses on the big questions that will influence the tourism industry in the coming ten years. Technique, people and politics form the fundaments of development.

Technique, people and politics/institutions are three factors that form the fundaments of development. Technique creates opportunities, people catch these opportunities and institutions support or decelerate development, create barriers or springboards for technical, economical or broader societal development. 40 years of development could have now reached an end and winds of change are one their way. There are signs that the postmodernism, post materialism and relativism that continuously have increased the past 40 years might fade and slowly give room for a reverse trend. In the same way, politics seem to be coming back after years of depoliticization. In the technical field enormous sums were invested in the new IT-infrastructure and in

Prospects: Post-post modern, more political, userdriven IT and GT.

the development of hardware and software. The striving of engineers for new solutions mainly drove the development. Now however, IT enters a new era where development is rather driven by consumers, their needs and inventiveness. Investments turn more towards GT (Green Tech) – trying to achieve a greater efficiency when it comes to energy and resources. Energy has become one of the biggest expense factors for many industries, regions and cities; no wonder GT becomes a top priority.

IN THE LONG PERSPECTIVE, 2010 COULD WELL BE THE POINT OF INFLECTION To summarize, this means that we could have a new era in front of us, that with some periods of exception, could reach well into the mid of this century. The precondition for this is however that we succeed in taking care of the present challenges in a determined way.

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In this report we have chosen a number of trends that we believe will have great impact on travel and tourism in this decennium and tried to draw up scenarios for 2020 in order to visualize change. As Mark Twain once said: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Without a crystal ball we cannot know for sure if our scenarios will come true in 2020. But keeping our minds open to signs of change and exercising our brains with the possible consequences will help us get a head start for the future.

In the following chapters we will examine different fields of development. We ask the reader to form an opinion: How likely are the scenarios? How big is the impact on your business? What is the best approach in order to cope with (and profit from) change?

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THE CLIMATE ISSUE: INVESTMENTS IN LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY Sustainability has become a real buzzword lately. A common question has been: Will it pay off to invest in sustainability? Consumers are reluctant to pay extra for environmentally friendlier solutions or CO2 compensation. But still they expect “somebody else” to take responsibility for a sustainable development. And the industry listens. There is a wide range of “green” initiatives from different players within the tourism industry. This means that green investments no longer can be used as a Unique Selling Position or even an advantage, so making money with green investments seems unlikely. But on the other hand players can loose money by not investing in environmentally friendlier solutions. One negative comment on a frequently visited rating site can reduce business significantly.

“The work that we do for the environment is the most important thing that we will do the next 10 years.” Petter A. Stordalen Owner, Choice Hotels Scandinavia

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“No company can avoid taking responsibility for the environment and focus on environmental questions. That’s why Scandic will lead the way by continuously working for decreasing environmental impact and an improved environment. Scandic will actively contribute to a sustainable society” Environmental policy of Scandic.

The desire for traveling is so strong that it is unlikely that consumers will voluntarily reduce their trips. Our longing for sun and beaches, our interest in other cultures and our adventurous spirit will make us “forget” about the impact on the environment. When it comes to business travel, videoconferences will replace the less attractive telephone conferences, and probably replace part of the face-to-face meetings. But it is our conviction that an increasing international world will demand an increasing number of personal meetings as well just as the computer did not replace papers and Facebook rather intensified the need for personal meetings than replaced them. However, increasing costs for transports (e.g. increasing fuel costs and taxes) can slow down the development. According to a scenario presented by the OECD/IEA in November 2009 (see chart below), the global primary energy demand will increase by 45% from 2006 levels by 2030. This scenario builds on the assumption of no new policies in place for reduction of energy need. Part of this increase in demand is when new nations start traveling; the biggest growth rates will come from e.g. China and India. Faith Birol, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA), believes that if no big new discoveries are made, “the output of conventional oil will peak in 2020 if oil demand grows on a business-as-usual basis.”1

Fig. 1: World primary energy demand in the reference scenario. OECD/IAE, speech in London on November 10, 2009. Non-OECD countries account for 93% of the increase in global demand between 2007 & 2030, driven largely by China & India

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The logical outcome of these two developments will be rising oil prices, the situation however being dependent on the technical development in the field of oil extraction and in the field of alternative energy sources. In order to keep energy prices down (no matter if it is needed for transport or for warming hotel rooms or water), the forthcoming decennium will be the time of GT (green tech). There will be an intensified development of GT, e.g. algae-fueled airplanes, “passive” hotels (using temperature of guests to heat) in order to try to compensate for the still increasing number of travelers worldwide. Above all however, there will be a global battle about emission rights and compensation. The initiatives by the industry are likely to be emphasized by initiatives from politics and institutions, e.g. in the form of regulations and taxes. This is also the solution suggested by potential future leaders (here defined as members of the international student organization AISEC, n=3119 from 122 countries). When asked “What would it take to make you more active than you are today in limiting your impact on climate change”, the answer being chosen by most of the respondents was related to what peers do. On second place came restrictions through legal regulations.

Fig. 2: Kairos Future/AISEC 2009. Survey with young people (75% students). 56% are “definitely” planning on becoming managers in the future, 32% “maybe”.

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Global battle about emission right and compensation to expect.


SCENARIO: SUSTAINABILITY IN TRAVEL 2020 More or less likely pieces of a future scenario: •

In 2020, regulations for CO2 emissions are in place through different methods, forcing the tourism industry to continuously find sustainable solutions and cut costs.

Destinations and companies/organizations NOT working systematically with longterm sustainability questions have become a rare exception. Sustainability has become a hot topic with increasing traveler numbers from all over the world.

Green technology had several major break throughs as the transport industry had to face severe restrictions in order to keep CO 2 emissions down. Investments in GT pays off as they are necessary in order to continue earning money with the tourism industry and as governments all over the world give incentives in this area.

India and China are now world leaders in producing cheap electric cars with an increasing cruising range. Loading stations are as common as gas stations back in 2010 in Scandinavia, Germany and several other European and Asian countries whereas the US find it hard to let go of the SUVs.

Fig. 3: Interest in electric cars and hybrids in Sweden. Kairos Future october/november 2008

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Improved networks of fast speed trains are connecting different corners within Europe and Asia and there is a significantly improved network between hubs and spokes, regardless of the type of transportation (e.g. flight, train or buses).

Some of the touristic hot-spots that were too “greedy” attracting big volumes of tourists have lost their popularity due to an overflow of tourists and damage of natural attractions as well as shortage of water. Other destinations have chosen to work proactively, regulating visitor flows, either by raising the prices or by more concrete arrangements like limiting the number of accommodations allowed to be built or the number of tourist visitors permitted.

Water shortage has turned out to be a severe issue at several popular destinations in the world and has caused conflicts between the “natives” and the guests. For example Spain, one of the destinations with a long tradition of this type of conflict, is struggling hard to find solutions.

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INCREASING 中國的 INFLUENCE The past year the world had to face some clear signs of change when it came to the shift of power in the world. Swedes and Americans are right now getting used to the fact that Chinese Geely (吉利汽車) wants to take over Volvo (Geelys vision: to build the safest cars in the world, to increase company size 6 times until 2015, to produce 2 million cars, about half of them outside of China). China also surpassed the US when it comes to CO 2 emissions, (7218 compared to 6948 million tons according to the World Resources Institute) giving evidence to the fact that it is in Asia that the fastest growth takes place right now. According to Wikipedia, about 10 million Chinese living on Mainland China speak English. But Chinese is also rapidly gaining importance as a foreign language. Approximately 40 2

million people are now studying Mandarin as a foreign language. In 2010 the world’s eyes and ears will again turn to China as the World Expo 2010 take place in Shanghai, with 70 million visitors expected. China is back as a major player on the global arena, as a major exporter, major industrial nation, major consuming nation, and soon also a giant within science, technology and economy. China is financing the world and might be the most expansive nation when it comes to economic ambitions and influence. This development will change the way in which NORMAL is defined. Normal will be defined according to Chinese standards to a much higher extent in 2020. NORMAL will much more often be spelt 正常. According to WTTC's 2009 economic research, Travel & Tourism in China accounts for 9.8% of GDP – Rmb 2,993.7 billion (EUR 312.6 billion) - and 7.8% of total employment in the country, 60.8 million jobs. Over the next ten years, China is also expected to be the leader in terms of Travel & Tourism growth. In 1995, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) predicted that China would generate 100 million arrivals worldwide by 2020, making it the fourth largest market in the world (UNWTO Tourism 2020 Vision). This is now considered a too modest prediction though (e.g. by the ETC) – the Chinese travel market has so far turned out to grow significantly faster than expected. Following this development, the 2010 Global Travel & Tourism Summit is scheduled to be held in Beijing from 25-27 May.

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40 million people are studying Mandarin as a foreign language. How many at your work-place?


The following graph, illustrates the projected development of the worldwide economic output until 2050, showing that India is another big and up and coming country whereas Europe is likely to loose power, e.g. due to struggling with an ageing population. Since 1991 international trips to Sweden have increased about 100%. Until 2020 we can expect an even stronger development.

Fig. 4: Share of the worldwide economic output until 2050.3

SCENARIO: CHINESE INFLUENCE IN 2020 More or less likely pieces of a future scenario: •

At the most popular destinations in Europe like Paris, London and Berlin, the Chinese language will, in the year of 2020 be on a level with English, French and Spanish as foreign languages at popular tourist sights.

Most tourism schools will educate in Chinese language and culture.

In Sweden, the number of overnight stays by Chinese has risen from about 100 000 in 2010 to close to a million in 2020. This means that the Chinese are now an important guest group, not only in the bigger cities.

Standard solutions are no longer built only according to European standards. It is always possible to get fried rice for breakfast in better European hotels, and all across Europe cars, chairs and stairs are increasingly designed with Asian preferences in mind.

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NO RISKS IN THE RATING SOCIETY The new decennium will take rating functions to new levels and soon involves everything and everybody. Lonely Planets yearly Blue list of “The best in travel” is a classic. Hotels are ranked of course, but also the financial stability of tour operators, the professionalism of tour guides or car insurances, the experience value of attractions, etc.

Google Labs (the testing environment for new Google’s new services) has launched a new service called Google social search. It is an experimental feature at this stage that helps you find relevant public web content from people in your social circle, when you're signed in to your Google Account. The search engine filters out material that your friends have published. If you are looking for a hotel in London you will get the ratings and blog posts from your friends concerning their hotel experiences. There are also social search functions at e.g. Facebook and Twingly, however the Google function is interesting because this search engine is so big. Social search means taking the rating functions one step further, because you generally trust your friends more than “people in general”.

SCENARIO: THE RATING SOCIETY 2020 More or less likely pieces of a future scenario: • In 2020 people in general don’t travel anywhere unless there is a sufficient number of positive ratings for the destination/accommodation/attraction etc. • There are umbrella rating sites for each destination whith overall average rates for different aspects of the holiday. This puts pressure on team-work at the destination as single ”black sheep” brings down the average ratings. • Every coordinate on google earth will be rateable (and rated) • Rate engines (search engines that find everything that has been rated) will almost be as frequently used as search engines • The natural selection towards more professional actors in tourism speeds up through the rating habits. ”Black sheep” are quickly sorted out.

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• Some tourism suppliers think the client power has gone a bit too far. A few negative ratings on a bad day can ruin the business for a long time. They initiated a lobby organization that is working to set standards for how ratings should be published. • For the adventourus there are trips to ”unrated” destinations. Mainly young ”earlyadopters” feel attracted to these concepts. The tour operator ”Unrated Destinations” established in 2012 shows great growth rates but suffers from minimal margins as great costs need to be invested in finding the increasingly rare unrated destinations.

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TAG-ESCAPISM IN THE CONNECTED SOCIETY? Can you imagine traveling without your cell phone? Or do you now feel “naked” without it? An increasing share of people find it hard to separate from their mobile device that now often contains GPS, compass, information on restaurants and accommodations, an audio-dictionary in all desired languages, a guide book for the destination to be visited, yellow pages, phone numbers to both known and unknown people of interest and much more. It is also more frequently used as payment method. Beside of that, there are intelligent mobile devices that measure our pulse, blood glucose etc. and send the data to the doctor. They help us sort the pictures in iPhoto according to the photographed faces, they help us read our feelings and communicate with others. Soon we won’t need to know anything ourselves.

The mobile device will look different 10 years from now and have other applications. The interesting aspect of this development is that it is now driven primarily by consumer needs (whereas it was previously driven primarily by the technical possibilities and the development urge of engineers). We love to leave tracks (“N.N. was here”) and our intelligent friends help us to lift this habit to a new level. With position tagged pictures we leave picture trails, with our emails and internet-activity we leave communication trails, our credit cards consumer trails. We get tailor-made advertisement and position-based offers. In the online society your employer knows when you are online, what sites you visit, who you call. Everyone can see your friends and interests and family status on Facebook and follow your thoughts on Twitter. A rather new function is that you can tag your phone and let your friends know where you are. Parents can watch their kids. Where will this end?

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SCENARIO: ESCAPISM IN THE CONNECTED SOCIETY 2020 More or less likely pieces of a future scenario: • The main trend is actually not escapism. Most people have gotten used to being connected and trackable all the time. In a way this is not much different from the old days (or today in rural areas) when the village people kept informed about each others habits. The online-natives (those who’s pictures were posted on the internet within minutes after their birth and who stayed online ever since) are also better skilled at shutting off the connection when they feel like it. • Tourism companies and organizations have developed services to match diminishing boundaries between online and offline (words that are mainly used by the retired generations in 2020, often in a nostalgic meaning). Information and booking functions are now well adjusted to mobile devices and if the user wishes, relevant services pops up when he passes certain points, e.g. suggestions for particularly interesting restaurants, sights, experiences. • Research on multi-tasking get lots of attention in the media. Some argue that multitasking should be trained more in kindergarden. Others argue that the human brain simply is not built to keep full attention on several things at once and demand rules for behavior at business meetings and private occasions. • The tour operator ”tag-escapism-tours” organizes trips to areas where nobody can reach or track you. Some of the clients are actually there on instruction from their doctor to reduce information overflow. The famous HERE-AND-NOW clinic was built in the heart of Lapland for people who are having difficulties to shut off the flow.

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NEW DEPTH IN MARKETING The coming decade seems to become a time of new depth. Not only when it comes to 3D-TV, 3D maps at address finding sites or 3D cameras. There will also be a new depth when it comes to marketing and brands. The world is getting increasingly complex and transparent at the same time. We have learnt that companies and people sometimes cheat and lie or simply don’t live up to their promises. We are tired of waiting in endless service queues, only to finally reach a person that can’t help us. We long for trustworthy relations! Authenticity and simplicity are buzzwords in this society.

SCENARIO: MARKETING IN 2020 More or less likely pieces of a future scenario: • Marketing will be totally ”pull”-driven, where consumers choose among a variety of offers instead of being harassed by marketeers. Winners will be those who can get the mountain (consumers) to come to Mohammad (your company), instead of vice versa. • Success in marketing will largely depend on your ratings. Challenge #1 is to be rated in itself, challenge #2 is to get good ratings. In order to be rated, companies will try to please consumers with ultra-generous offers when launching services. Hence, the marketing phase will concentrate on their launch or opening, after that, the destiny of your service lies in the hands of the rating community… • All tourism attractions and destinations have 3D presentations that are frequently updated in order to give a fresh and accurate picture of the reality • Those who cheat when doing the above are ”hanged” in social blogs/fora on the internet • Social networks are widely used in order to present new ideas and offers.

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NEO CONSERVATISM – THE BACK PACKERS KIDS AND THEIR VALUES The present teenagers will soon start traveling on their own, some of them already do. Their values and interests will impact the travel industry as their focus and demands are different from previous generations. In Kairos Future’s latest youth survey “My Dream Society”, 19 000 young Swedes between the ages of 15-19 years answered questions about their thoughts on the future. Their main wish is to have a rather ordinary and traditional life. They do not dream about going on trips abroad, to be rich or famous. No, they dream about finding a job, finding Mr./Mrs. Right, having kids and a nice home. What happened to drug liberalism, the sexual revolution, the engagement in the environment and the strong political statements? What happened to the youth rebels?

Oasis (indie pop)

Not only do young people drink less (on average) than in the earlier days. Their idols stand up for statements like “no sex before marriage” (the Jonas Brothers), “no drugs, no alcohol, no smoking” (Adam Tensta), drinking only within limits (Ebba on Sydow). They watch Desperate Housewives. They also start to have opinions and argue that certain things are right or wrong, true or false. Because how could they otherwise start a revolution against their parents from the ironic and relativistic generation? Their parents stretched boundaries, both geographically and mentally of different areas of their life. Hard rock has become family-friendly which became evident when Lordi won the Eurovision Song Contest 2006. It is ok to make jokes about religion, the royal family, sex… We are facing a shift in values and culture of historical dimensions when it becomes “cool” to be ordinary and to have lasting opinions. And who has time to stay abroad during a longer time when the aim is to settle down to have a family?

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Yes No

Fig. 5: Share of young people between 16 and 29 who answered “yes absolutely” or “no” to the question if they would like to move from Sweden and live in another country for a period of at least 6 months. Ungdomsstyrelsen (Swedish Youth Authority) 1997, 2002, 2007)

Now the question is: How will the backpacker’s kids travel?

SCENARIO: TRAVEL OF THE NEO CONSERVATIVES 2020 More or less likely pieces of a future scenario: • The Generation Ordinary starts working earlier and starts a family earlier than the youngsters ten years ago. They don’t have time for airy-fairy trips around the world as their back-packing parents did in order to ”find themselves”. • Traditional party destinations like Kos or Ibiza have transformed to well functioning holiday destinations for ”younger” families. The plastic buckets of Sangria and the moonshine parties at Ko Samui are marketed as ”nostalgic experiences” to the 50+ segment. • Concepts like ”Living with the monks” in Thailand are now directed at the Empty Nesters generation whereas the Generation Ordinary prefer holiday offers with a more concrete goal, e.g. learning Mandarin or baking Thai cookies. • The Generation Ordinary are no longer early adopters (as earlier generations at their age). That is too much hassle. Safety and comfort will be of high priority for Generation Ordinary. • As employees they are more comfortable as they are more loyal to their employers than the generation born in the early eighties. As they hurry to set up an ordinary life, they don’t have time to mess around with different employers. Instead they favor secure work places with generous offers when it comes to childcare and retirement benefits.

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HUNTING FOR THE LAST DIAMOND With an increasing number of travelers around the world and with increasing travel experience it becomes more difficult for explorers to find new “untouched” places that are not yet established as tourism destinations. There are two areas that are yet rather unexplored: 1) SPACE: Up until now only a few, very rich people had the pleasure of looking at the earth from a place high above on private space trips. The company Space Adventures’ vision for the coming decade is to arrange flights to space for more people than have made the journey since the dawn of the Space Age. Flying on suborbital flights, on voyages to Earth orbit and on expeditions that circumnavigate the moon are the offers to clients. Until today, Space Adventures have sent seven commercial passengers on orbital spaceflight missions to the International Space Station on the Russian Soyuz spacecraft. Right now they are planning the first commercial manned

Concept image for Spaceport Sweden

lunar mission. At Esrange in the north of Sweden, Virgin Galactics is planning the first suborbital space flight in 2011. The annual International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight will take place in Las Cruces, New Mexico this year, the mere existence of such an annual event being an interesting indicator of the development towards a more privately financed space business.

2) THE OCEAN: It has long been the joy of divers to discover the colorful underwater world with its fantastic flora and fauna. There are some underwater hotels and restaurants across the world. There are also entrepreneurs offering excursions with submarines. But there are still lots of undiscovered depths on this planet for those with the adequate equipment. In the next decade a further development in this field is possible. But space and ocean are destinations that will remain unreachable for most people until 2020. What other destinations are there that will have break-throughs in the coming decade? What are the top and flop destinations in 2020? These are the scenarios for the coming up decade:

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SCENARIO: THE LAST DIAMONDS IN 2020 More or less likely pieces of a future scenario: •

For mature markets that have traveled all over the world already and experienced the beach in Mexico as well as in Thailand, been kayaking in Canada and safari in Africa the hunt for the last diamond might not be as interesting anymore. Following the trends that point in the direction of an increasing longing for authenticity and depth, the question for the next decade may rather be how to travel and what to do than where to go. Traveling as a status symbol for British, Germans, French, Dutch, Scandinavians etc. is more likely to focus on the depth of the experience. Meeting with locals is “worth” more than seeing the Taj Mahal. Help building houses in Haiti “worth” more than laying on the beach in the Dom Rep. Taking the night train through Africa is more impressive than being able to show off a tan.

With a growing number of international arrivals the attractiveness of destinations will also be about long-term sustainability. Some destinations will loose attractiveness when allowing an overflow of guests, e.g. Thailand might have to “do a Mallorca” and change their image from big and cheap, to target more high-end segments.

Other destinations might break-through this decennium. Sub-Saharan Africa could be a candidate for this. Africa has not developed very favorably for a long time. But recent developments give us hope. Africa managed the economic recession better than many other parts of the world and micro-financing is developing to new levels. The East-African Union woke to life again and has ambitions to become a new EU. The football World Cup in 2010 in South Africa will draw attention to the whole continent. Despite AIDS being a huge problem, this is an exiting continent that will definitely grow as a tourist destination over the coming up years.

As the Middle East become more politically stable, this will definitely be a region to keep an eye on. We hope this will be the case in 2020. Teheran, Iran is now one of the most popular skiing resorts, being able to combine world-class skiing with a vibrant city life. Beach resorts like the ones in Oman and Dubai will pop up in the other Gulf states. Iraq with its rich cultural and historical heritage attracts tourists from all the world.

Europe is growing closer together, last time we were this close was at the time of Karl the Great, and he died over a thousand years ago. In 2020 we imagine that the EU has a more evident leadership and that the collaboration on infrastructure has moved on even further. It is easy to book and travel with all types of transport all over Europe. The newer EU states will still show the biggest relative growth rates both when it comes to inbound and outbound travel.

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CONCLUSIONS How likely are these scenarios? How desirable? In the seminar we will work on the impacts of the described trends on the different areas of tourism in order to get better insights in how to surf on the possibilities or to meet the threats occurring from them. Are there general conclusions to draw from the single scenarios? Perhaps the overall question is if we will move towards less or more control when global traveling grows and the digital world develops.

MOVING BEYOND CONTROL… Destinations&markets: With an increasing number of travelers from all over the world, significant sustainability problems emerge. Travel and tourism cause more and more environmental pollution. New destinations appear all over the world. The travel and tourism organizations have difficulties in keeping certain standards. UNWTO does not succeed in pushing programs for sustainable development as some destinations and com2

panies choose short-term profit before long-term perspectives. Increasing CO emissions puts the industry under pressure and taxes lower margins even further. Marketing: When the consumers take control of the communication channels, what can the tourism industry do? The coming decennium is a time of confusion. Marketing budgets are completely redone every second month.

…OR ON THE CONTRARY? Destinations&markets: Nothing unites like a common enemy. With increasing pressure emerging from the climate change issue, the global tourism industry acts increasingly 2

professional and in unity. There are well working initiatives in order to reduce CO emissions and the UNWTO and similar organizations are stronger than ever. The tourism industry is more than ever seen as an industry that does not only fill the open spaces after more old-fashioned industries but also as an important growth engine in developing countries. The neo-conservative generation helps support this development, both as travelers and as employees as they support order, safety and predictability.

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With an increasing number of travelers the tourism industry is able to increase margins and produce experiences at a more profitable level. Some players decide to specialize in certain markets in order to deliver services at a higher quality. Together with increasing volumes, the consolidation within the aviation industry helps push cabin rates. Marketing: When the consumer takes control of the messages, the tourism industry puts more focus on the initial stage, to create buzz and on watching quality on delivery, especially to important opinion leaders. There is also co operations watching the rating sites in order to achieve fair rating standards.

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SOURCES AND NOTES 1

The Economist, December 10th 2009. 2020 vision. The IEA puts a date on peak oil production.

2

Wikipedia: In 2005, 117,660 non-native speakers took the Chinese Proficiency Test, an increase of 26.52% [1] from 2004. From 2000 to 2004, the number of students in England, Wales and Northern Ireland taking [2] Advanced Level exams in Chinese increased by 57%. An independent school in the UK made Chinese one [3] of their compulsory subjects for study in 2006. Chinese language study is also rising in the United States. The USC U.S.-China Institute cited a report that 51,582 students were studying the language in U.S. colleges and universities. While far behind the more than 800,000 students who study Spanish, the number is more than three times higher than in 1986. The Institute's report includes graphs and details on the popularity of [4] other languages. China has helped 60,000 teachers promote its language internationally, and an estimated 40 million people [5] are now studying Chinese as a second language around the world. 3

Blume/Heuser, Zwei Länder, eine Mission, Die Zeit 17/2006

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