Page 1

The Schmidt Report Orange County, Florida 2018 • Year-End Summary

YOUR TOOL TO UNDERSTANDING CENTRAL FLORIDA’S REAL ESTATE MARKET

Historic & Current Residential Brokerage Market Overview Prepared by: Jason Schmidt, CCIM Chief Operating Officer Senior Market Analyst WWW.STOCKWORTH.COM


ABOUT THE AUTHOR Jason Schmidt serves as the Chief Operating Officer and Qualifying Broker within the Stockworth portfolio of companies. He holds one of the industry’s highest professional designations, CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member), is a member of the Forbes Real Estate Council and has overseen almost $1 billion in real estate sales and equity placement. For over 15 years Jason has advised clients ranging from fortune level executives to celebrities in both residential and commercial market sectors.

Jason Schmidt, CCIM Chief Operating Officer

Jason’s role within the Stockworth portfolio is to ensure industry compliance while generating meaningful metrics with actionable plans that are deployed by Stockworth practitioners. Jason’s passions include family, video & music production and fitness. He is a career real estate practitioner and is dedicated to helping shape the future and raise the professional standards of the real estate industry.

2 About the Author

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


THE SCHMIDT SUMMARY: 2019 & BEYOND WHERE ARE WE GOING? We are at an interesting place in the world today. We live in an environment with incredible political disfunction, massive debt, yet fairly strong economic confidence. The United States currently has over $21 trillion in total combined debt, twice what it was in 2008, over $100 trillion in unfunded future social liabilities, and policy makers who continue to pass spending bills that rely only on heavy deficit budget spending and zero attention to fiscal balance; all of which is hard to ignore as anything but political pandering and power grabbing. In March of 2018 I published an article in which I outlined the tightening policy of the Federal Reserve and my feeling that the end of 2018 would mark the beginning of a real estate contraction due in part to rising interest rates and the associated effects on affordability, issues with government/sovereign debt, as well as declining confidence within trading markets. As it turned out, I was half right. On a national level, that was a correct prediction. In October, the U.S. stock market experienced a significant correction, one that wiped out the year’s gains, though we have seen some rebounds since. Confidence was shaken within investment circles and year-over-year housing reports showed signs of slowing overall absorption and increasing inventories. Locally, however, within Central Florida, Orange County, specifically, we have experienced a stable housing market and have benefited from large scale development and the associated business growth and housing demand. We ended 2018 at roughly the same level in terms of overall transaction count as we did in 2017 with an almost 10% increase in median home value with no real signs of that changing. The big question today surrounds sustainability and potential for future growth. Unless we experience a permanent demographic shift, median value cannot continue to grow at this pace. We have recovered all of the lost housing equity we saw following the housing crisis and now have seen an almost 30% contraction in the sub-$250,000 market since 2015 while at the same time experiencing only a +/-6% increase in median household income within Central Florida (+/-$54,000 in 2018). There will likely soon come a time when we simply lose buying participation in affordable housing areas; and with a market segment representing almost 50% of transactions and over 25% of transaction volume, that contraction could have significant impacts on the local real estate economy. On a macro level, interest rate increases are used as a tool to slow a heating economy and control core inflation by lifting the cost of capital, one element of the dual mandate held by the Federal Reserve. Where we find ourselves today, however, is with a +/-2.3% Effective Federal Funds Rate and a closely matched core inflation increase over the close of 2017. There is nothing within core CPI driven data to suggest that the economy is anywhere near coming to a tipping point of inflation excesses; I find just the opposite. Where then is the source of growth the Federal Reserve is attempting to quash by its increases in interest rates? The answer is quite simple; leverage. We find ourselves facing a reality where our “growth” over the last decade has been built on the back of the borrowed dollar. Exceedingly low cost of capital over the past ten years has fueled an explosion of nonfinancial corporate debt, more than doubling its 2008 levels to now measuring over $6 trillion. If that debt was used to grow productivity or invest in capital expense I do not think I would be as concerned. A significant portion of this debt, however, was issued in the form of corporate bonds to fund stock buybacks and boost share earnings. This is paper value creation with no rooting in substance. As the Federal Reserve continues down the road of unwinding U.S. Treasury Bond holdings within its balance sheet at the rate of $50 billion per month ($600 billion per annum), while at the same time trending towards continued tightening of its monetary policy, the cost of debt service on corporate leverage is likely to continue its rise and I fear that the first expense cut that will be made within these large, publicly traded companies whose fiduciary responsibility is to the shareholder and not the employee or the macro economy, will be labor and outside vendor contracts. Typically, once the ball starts rolling on expense control measures on this order of scale, there is little doubt that the overall employment market will be affected and the macro economy will suffer. Is it all bad? Only time will tell, but for 2019, I don’t think so. Real estate values have had an artificial boost due to low cost of capital, but values have also surged due to natural supply and demand forces with low national inventory and, due to CFPB regulation, a better than average qualified buyer pool looking to purchase. From an employment sustainability perspective, the extremely low unemployment numbers are sustainable for a long period of time from the U.S. Government’s point of view. Our labor participation rate is as low as it has been since the 1970’s. There is tremendous capacity within the nonparticipating employee market and as that measure continues to tick upwards, economic outputs also have potential to do the same, though the quality of employment will be key. Should this trend continue, it may be possible to begin to assemble a plan to adequately service the existing debt and craft a plan for addressing future unfunded liabilities. The most significant outlier and unknown variable in this equation is the U.S. Government. Should our politicians even remotely appear as though they are willing to dialogue with one another and develop a sustainable fiscal plan for the Country, I have no doubt that we will see both trading markets and the real economy surge.

3 Summary

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18.

4

Section

Page

FLORIDA’S POSITION & WHAT’S HAPPENING IN 2018 JASON’S AGENT RECOMMENDATIONS INVESTMENT CONSIDERATIONS & RISK PROFILING MARKETS TO WATCH FINANCING, VALUE TRENDS & MACRO ECONOMIC INFORMATION ORANGE COUNTY ORLANDO WINDERMERE WINTER PARK WINTER GARDEN APOPKA OCOEE LAKE NONA COLLEGE PARK DOWNTOWN ORLANDO DR. PHILLIPS LUXURY MARKET SOURCES

5-9 10 11-12 13 14-31 32 51 69 87 105 123 141 159 177 195 213 231 252

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


FLORIDA RANKINGS & STATISTICS U.S. POPULATION RANKINGS CALIFORNIA TEXAS

1

FLORIDA

2

39.5 million

28.7 million

NEW YORK

21.3 MILLION

4

19.5 million

FLORIDA COUNTY POPULATION RANKINGS MIAMI-DADE

BROWARD

PALM BEACH

HILLSBOROUGH

2.8 million

1.9 million

1.43 million

1.41 million

1

2

5 Ranking & Statistics

3

4

ORANGE 1.35 MILLION

PINELLAS

6

970 thousand

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


FLORIDA RANKINGS & STATISTICS - CONTINUED ORLANDO IS RANKED #1 IN THE U.S. FOR JOB GROWTH (4TH CONSECUTIVE YEAR (2015-2018 US BLS)

Ø FLORIDA RANKED #2 IN THE U.S. FOR POPULATION GROWTH AND PER CAPITA INDIVIDUAL TAX TREATMENT. Ø ORLANDO RANKED #2 FOR WAGE GROWTH. Ø ORLANDO RANKED #2 FOR MOST COMPETITIVE U.S. LOCATION FOR BUSINESS. 6 Ranking & Statistics

ORLANDO IS RANKED #1 IN THE U.S. FOR STEM JOB GROWTH IN CITIES WITH METROS >1 MILLION

2ND The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


WHAT HAPPENED IN 2018 – ORANGE COUNTY MACRO ¡ Total Sales: ¡ Total residential unit sales finished up +/-1% at 21,930 transactions ¡ Total transaction volume finished up +/-9.89% at $6.8 billion

¡ Macro Residential Inventory: ¡ End-of-year unit inventory concluded at 4,929 total units available, up +/14.8% from the close of 2017. ¡ End-of-year inventory volume concluded at $2.5 billion, up +/-14.1% from the close of 2017.

¡ Continued Segment Shifting: ¡ From 2015 though the close of 2018, the sub-$250,000 transaction market has contracted by +/-29%, while at the same time real median household income in Florida has grown by only +/-6% over the same period of time. 7 What Happened

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


WHAT HAPPENED IN 2018 THE LUXURY MARKET ¡

¡

Total Sales: ¡

Total luxury unit sales finished up +/-8.0% at 445 transactions

¡

Total transaction volume finished up +/-11.8% at $797 million

Luxury Residential Inventory: ¡

End-of-year unit inventory concluded at 414 total units available, up +/-10.1% from the close of 2017. ¡

¡ ¡

Though overall unit count is up from 2017, since 2014, the standard deviation of the luxury market’s year-over-year inventory change has been 9.8%, placing 2018’s inventory change within a reasonable tolerance of past performance.

End-of-year inventory volume concluded at $935 million, up +/-14.1% from the close of 2017.

What to Watch For: ¡

Be Aware: With economic uncertainty on the horizon, consider both entrance and exit strategy carefully. Unskilled approaches to valuation on both the acquisition and disposition side continue to exist within this space. Over paying and/or over pricing could lead to significant future challenges.

¡

Ultra-Luxury: 2018 saw the largest volume of ultra luxury transactions in Central Florida’s history with twelve (12) transactions trading for an aggregate volume of $71.3 million. ¡

Could this be a sign of ultra-high net worth individuals relocating to Central Florida? Maybe, but it is too soon to tell. Central Florida has been working for several years at boosting core local economies outside of tourist and service industries with projects such as Lake Nona and its Medical City, Downtown’s Creative Village, growing arts district and UCF’s campus expansion, all indications of a growing internal market.

¡

It could also be an indication of disposable income within that income demographic with individuals looking for additional assets to place a surplus of cash.

8 What Happened

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


OUTLOOK FOR FLORIDA ¡

New Residential Construction: ¡

¡

Home builders struggle to keep up with demand. ¡ Major Challenge 1: Lack of Skilled Labor: Skilled tradesmen within the U.S. have been on a steady decline over the past several years due to an economic base shift towards service based industries (real estate, finance, marketing, hospitality, etc.). ¡ Major Challenge 2: Material Shortage & Rising Costs: Emerging major economies are consuming tremendous volumes of concrete, steel & lumber, though that trend has begun to slow towards the end of 2018. Commodity tariffs with China are also a factor to consider when projecting future material cost. ¡ Major Challenge 3: Land Shortages & Risk Aversion: Desirable land locations are scarce. Coupled with a more risk averse acquisition and land banking stance following the 2008 financial crisis, development opportunity is limited in some areas. Look for emerging suburb development and a pop up of “micro-metropolitan” economies.

Florida as an Attractive Destination: ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡

Florida’s rapidly growing population is being driven by its friendly individual and corporate tax treatment. Central Florida continues to rank highly on most desirable places to live within the U.S. as its ability to offer diverse options for live, work & play options and is a leading contributor to Florida’s overall population growth. Florida ended 2017 with a +/-$220 million budget surplus and a declining overall debt profile, a stark contrast to our National debt circumstances. Should Florida’s newly elected governor maintain fiscal performance, Florida will likely continue to lead as an attractive relocation destination for the Country.

9 Florida Outlook

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


JASON’S AGENT RECOMMENDATIONS FOR 2019 IF

REAL ESTATE IS YOUR CAREER, STOP MAKING EXCUSES FOR FAILURE AND START TREATING THE PROFESSION WITH THE RESPECT AND REVERENCE IT DESERVES; IF NOT, GET OUT:

§

Real estate is the only high value asset sales profession, one requiring professional licensure, in which market condition transience is measurable in the 10’s of percentage points.

§

From 2006-2012, 26.4% of National Association of Realtors (NAR) membership left the real estate market while at the same time financial service brokers, one of the hardest hit professions following the 2008 financial crisis, declined by only 4.2% over that same period of time.

§

From 2012 to today, a subsequent six (6) year period, all lost membership has been recovered. In the financial services brokering industry, registered FINRA representatives remain flat in numbers as compared to 2006 while professions such as law and medicine saw is respective practitioner base increase by 1.5% and 1.7% respectively from 2006 through the present; a sign of stability and controlled market presence.

§

Of the +/-14,500 members of the Orlando Regional Realtor Association (ORRA), only 6.6% of those members sold more than $5 million in annual sales.

§

Real estate is a professional practice no different in the nature of consequence of failure than within law, medicine or financial services and has no place for “part-time” or “weekend warrior” real estate agents.

§

The practice of real estate is designed to shepherd individuals, families and businesses through some of the largest and most complex transitions of their lives and careers. There is no place for amateur, unqualified or unskilled individuals within in that mission.

10 Agent Recommendations

$7.5M-$10M, 203, 1.4%

$10M-$15M, 147, 1.0%

$5M-$7.5M, 452, 3.2%

$15M-$20M, 90, 0.6%

$20M+, 76, 0.5%

$2.5M-$5M, 1401, 9.9%

$1M-$2.5M, 2433, 17.2% $0-$1M, 9337, 66.0%

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


INVESTOR CONSIDERATIONS

RECOGNIZING YOUR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT RISK TOLERANCE Low

Medium

Moderate

Aggressive

High

Identifying overall risk tolerance and applying that criteria to any given investment opportunity is a critical component in separating the skilled investor from the novice.

WHAT TO IDENTIFY: •Why are you investing? Is your investment designed to flip cash, generate long-term cash flow, or place equity for long-term future 1. What is Your cash-out value. •How comfortable are you with volatility? (RISK vs. REWARD) Purpose & Criteria? •Is your investment intended to be long-term or short-term? •When do you need the return OF your capital? •Will you require a specific return ON your capital? 2. What is Your •Levered vs. un-levered Timing?

3. Is it Practical?

•Are you relying on the return OF your capital within a specific period of time? •What will happen if you lose your initial capital investment?

11 Investor Considerations

WHAT TO CONSIDER: 1. Liquidity

2. Alternatives

3. Choosing the Right Investment?

•Real estate, typically, is an IL-liquid asset that cannot quickly be converted to cash. •If you cannot afford to lose your capital, or forego a quick return, consider the risk of the market segment and volatility of the investment.

•Where else can you place your investment capital? •Consider the risk/volatility of the market segment measured against alternative investment vehicles, i.e. investment funds, stock market, etc.

•Is real estate investment right for you? •Research all potential market segments, risk factors and compare against your individual criteria.

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


INVESTOR CONSIDERATIONS BROAD RISK MARKET OUTLINE Residential Scale: Commercial Scale:

Middle-market demographic (+/- median income) rental property. Institutional grade investment (national credit tenants), national institutional grade retail/office REITs.

Residential Scale: Commercial Scale:

Middle-market & Upper middle-market demographic rental property. Institutional grade / middle market investment (national credit tenants / professional tenants), retail/office REITs.

Residential Scale: Commercial Scale:

Lower middle-market & upper market demographic rental property. Small/mid-size business professional tenants, small/mid-size retail tenants.

Residential Scale: Commercial Scale:

Lower market & luxury market demographic rental property. Small business / low-no credit history business, specialty tenant (restaurant, bar, etc.), land development.

Residential Scale: Commercial Scale:

Low value market & ultra luxury demographic rental property. Small business with no credit history, low market demographic specialty tenant, land development.

12 Investor Considerations

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


MARKETS TO WATCH ¡

Southwest & West Orange County: ¡

¡

Downtown Region: ¡

¡

College Park & Creative Village: ¡ College Park is experiencing a quasi-gentrification movement with older homes being purchased, sites razed and new construction custom homes put in their place with long term potential for stable markets up to +/- $1 million. ¡ Look for continued commercial infill development announcements in the Packing District area and overall outward centrifugal expansion from the central Edgewater Drive corridor. ¡ As Creative Village continues to progress, both the Central Business District/downtown region and outward boundaries of College Park will begin to expand as housing need & interest grows.

Southeast Orange County: ¡

¡

Winter Garden (Horizon West) /Ocoee: ¡ Winter Garden/Hamlin/Horizon West is experiencing a new construction and development boom being driven by Boyd Development. ¡ Unlike the majority of Orange County and closely matched only by Lake Nona, +/-69% of Winter Garden’s transaction count and sales volume falls within the $250,000 - $500,000 market segment, a pricing bracket popular amongst the growing young family & young professional market within Central Florida. ¡ Look for Horizon West/Hamlin to command much of the Southwest Orange County sales activity, both residential and commercial, over the coming several years. ¡ Look for a booming historic Downtown Winter Garden in the Plant Street district as destination development continues its uptick (Crooked Can Brewery/Plant Street Market, growing restaurant/dining presence, increased frequency of outdoor festivals & events).

Lake Nona: ¡ Lake Nona is experiencing rapid growth driven by Tavistock’s Medical City. ¡ Lake Nona’s household demographic produces over $100,000 per year in annual income, however from a live, work, play perspective, Lake Nona may remain +/-5 years from market maturation.

Northwest Orange County: ¡

Apopka: ¡ Affordability within the resale and new construction markets have made Apopka a desirable alternative to more central business market areas. ¡ Expansion of the 429 transit system and opening of the Florida Hospital Apopka Campus have provided for expansion capacity and greater potential for market growth and competition for new buyers.

13 Markets to Watch

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


24 MONTH PMMS - MORTGAGE RATE TRENDS 24 MONTH HIGH

5.00%

11/15/18, 4.94%

4.85%

1/5/17, 4.37%

4.70% 4.55%

12/28/17, 4.13%

4.40%

24 MONTH HIGH

4.25%

12/27/18, 4.55%

9/6/18, 4.93%

4.10% 3.95% 3.80%

1/5/17, 4.20%

3.65% 1/5/17

2/5/17 3/5/17

12/27/18 , 4.43%

12/28/17, 3.99% 4/5/17

5/5/17

6/5/17

7/5/17

8/5/17

9/5/17

10/5/17 11/5/17 12/5/17

1/5/18

2/5/18 3/5/18

30 YR FRM

4/5/18

5/5/18

6/5/18

7/5/18

8/5/18

9/5/18

10/5/18 11/5/18 12/5/18

30 YR JUMBO FRM

4.55%

24 MONTH HIGH

11/15/18, 4.36%

4.35%

12/27/18, 4.01%

4.15% 3.95% 3.75% 3.55%

1/5/17, 3.44%

12/28/17, 3.47% 24 MONTH HIGH

3.35%

12/27/18, 4.00%

12/28/17, 3.44%

3.15% 2.95% 1/5/17, 3.33% 1/5/17 2/5/17 3/5/17

10/25/18, 4.14%

4/5/17

5/5/17

6/5/17

7/5/17

8/5/17

9/5/17

15 YR FRM

14 Mortgage Rate Trends

10/5/17 11/5/17 12/5/17

1/5/18

2/5/18 3/5/18

4/5/18

5/5/18

6/5/18

7/5/18

8/5/18

9/5/18

10/5/18 11/5/18 12/5/18

5/1 ARM

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


RATE INCREASES & AFFORDABILITY CHANGE (1 OF 2) $320,000 $315,000

$314,572 On a fixed $1,500 per month P&I payment, a borrower today possesses a +/-6.4% reduction in overall purchasing power compared to the close of 2017. This represents a +/-20,000 reduction in buying power.

$310,000 $305,000 $300,000

$294,314

$295,000 $290,000 $285,000

3.99%

4.44%

4.55%

$280,000 End of 2017 30 year FRM

15 Interest Rates & Buying Power

End of 2018 Buying Power

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


RATE INCREASES & AFFORDABILITY CHANGE (2 OF 2) $1,010,000 $1,000,000

$1,000,000 For a $1 million loan, though affordability is not as compressed within this market segment, that 3.5% reduction in cost of capital purchasing power translates to +/$35,000 is less available capital or an increase in monthly payment by +/-$176.

$990,000 $980,000 $970,000

$964,989

$960,000 $950,000

4.44% 4.13%

4.43%

End of 2017

End of 2018

$940,000 30 year JUMBO FRM

16 Interest Rates & Buying Power

Buying Power

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


PREVIOUS MARKET AFFORDABILITY COMPARISON 1 OF 2

End of 2018

Interest Rate: 4.53% Orange County Median Value: $258,000

$294,314

Considering a fixed $1,500 payment over a 30 year FRM and when compared to the previous market interest rate peak, a buyer today possesses $63,000 (27%) greater borrowing capacity than in Q2 2006. Though median home values have risen over the past several years, in Orange County, current median home value is only +/4.5% above its Q2 2006 value.

Q2 2006

Interest Rate: 6.76% Orange County Median Value: $246,950

$231,031 4.56%

$150,000

$175,000

$200,000

$225,000

$250,000

$275,000

$300,000

Borrowing Capacity

17 Mortgage Rate Trends

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


PREVIOUS MARKET AFFORDABILITY COMPARISON 2 OF 2

Interest Rate: 4.55% Orange County Median Value: $258,000

End of 2018

$1,315

When comparing median home value and the associated principal and interest payment at the previous market rate peak, Q2 2006 – 6.76% 30 year FRM, to today, Q4 2018 – 4.55% 30 year FRM, a buyer today, despite only a +/-4.5% increase in median home value from the market previous peak, will pay +/-22% less for the corresponding P&I loan payment. Interest Rate: 6.76% Orange County Median Value: $246,950

Q2 2006

$1,603 4.56%

$0

$250

$500

$750

$1,000

$1,250

$1,500

$1,750

Principal & Interest Payment

18 Mortgage Rate Trends

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


0 1972-05-01

1971-10-01

1971-03-01

1970-08-01

1970-01-01

1969-06-01

1968-11-01

1968-04-01

1967-09-01

Source: Freddie Mac

30 YR FRM

*Not adjusted for inflation or seasonal activity

19 Mortgage Rate Trends Source: 1985-10-01

1985-03-01

1984-08-01

1984-01-01

1983-06-01

1982-11-01

1982-04-01

1981-09-01

New Home Median Value

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis U.S. Census Bureau Source:

Existing Home Median Value

2019-01-01

2018-06-01

2017-11-01

2007 $257,400

2017-04-01

18.45

2016-09-01

2016-02-01

2015-07-01

2014-12-01

2014-05-01

2013-10-01

2013-03-01

6 Year Expansion Avg. Annual Value Expansion: 6.4% 2012-08-01

Existing Home Sales

2012-01-01

2011-06-01

2010-11-01

2010-04-01

2009-09-01

$228,800

2009-02-01

US recession Q1 2001 – Q4 2001

2008-07-01

2005 $243,600

2007-12-01

2007-05-01

6.07

2006-10-01

2006-03-01

2005-08-01

10 Year Economic Expansion Avg. Annual Value Expansion: 4.1% 2005-01-01

6

2004-06-01

Rate High Point 1981

2003-11-01

2003-04-01

Existing Home Sales

2002-09-01

New Home Sales

2002-02-01

16

2001-07-01

US recession Q3 1990 - Q2 1991

2000-12-01

2000-05-01

1999-10-01

1999-03-01

1998-08-01

1998-01-01

1997-06-01

1996-11-01

1996-04-01

1995-09-01

7 Years

1995-02-01

2

1994-07-01

4

1993-12-01

14

1993-05-01

12

1992-10-01

1992-03-01

1991-08-01

1991-01-01

1990-06-01

US recession US recession US recession US recession Q4 1969-Q4 1970 Q4 1973-Q1 1975 Q1 1980-Q3 1980 Q3 1981-Q4 1982

1989-11-01

1989-04-01

1988-09-01

1988-02-01

1 Year

1987-07-01

1986-12-01

1986-05-01

5 Years

1981-02-01

18

1980-07-01

8

1979-12-01

10

1979-05-01

1978-10-01

1978-03-01

1977-08-01

3 Years

1977-01-01

1976-06-01

1975-11-01

1975-04-01

1974-09-01

1974-02-01

1973-07-01

1972-12-01

20

1967-02-01

1966-07-01

1965-12-01

1965-05-01

1964-10-01

1964-03-01

1963-08-01

1963-01-01

NATIONAL HISTORIC MORTGAGE RATE & MEDIAN HOME VALUE TRENDS US recession Q4 2007 - Q2 2009

2018 $325,200

$261,400

$228,400

6.70 4.55

9 Year Expansion Avg. Annual Value Expansion: 5.2%

$400,000

$350,000

$300,000

$250,000

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000

$0

National Association of Realtors

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


$-

20 Economic Cycles Existing Home Median Value 2018-06-01

2017-11-01

2017-04-01

2016-09-01

2016-02-01

2015-07-01

2014-12-01

2014-05-01

2013-10-01

6 Years 2013-03-01

2012-08-01

2012-01-01

2011-06-01

2010-11-01

$300,000

2010-04-01

1990 – 2007 (Beginning of Recovery to Peak: +/-17 years)

2009-09-01

2009-02-01

2008-07-01

2007-12-01

2007-05-01

2006-10-01

US recession Q1 2001 – Q4 2001

2006-03-01

2005-08-01

2005-01-01

10 Years 2004-06-01

2003-11-01

2003-04-01

2002-09-01

2002-02-01

2001-07-01

2000-12-01

US recession Q3 1990 - Q2 1991

2000-05-01

1999-10-01

1999-03-01

1998-08-01

1998-01-01

1997-06-01

1996-11-01

1996-04-01

7 Years

1995-09-01

1995-02-01

1994-07-01

1971 – 1989 (Beginning of Recovery to Peak: +/-18 years)

1993-12-01

1993-05-01

1992-10-01

1992-03-01

1991-08-01

1991-01-01

1990-06-01

1989-11-01

US recession Q3 1981-Q4 1982

1989-04-01

1988-09-01

1988-02-01

1987-07-01

1986-12-01

1 Year

1986-05-01

1985-10-01

1985-03-01

1984-08-01

1984-01-01

1983-06-01

1982-11-01

US recession Q1 1980-Q3 1980

1982-04-01

1981-09-01

5 Years

1981-02-01

1980-07-01

1979-12-01

1979-05-01

1978-10-01

1978-03-01

$350,000

1977-08-01

US recession US recession Q4 1969-Q4 1970 Q4 1973-Q1 1975

1977-01-01

3 Years

1976-06-01

1975-11-01

1975-04-01

1974-09-01

1974-02-01

1973-07-01

1972-12-01

1972-05-01

1971-10-01

1971-03-01

1970-08-01

1970-01-01

1969-06-01

1968-11-01

1968-04-01

1967-09-01

1967-02-01

1966-07-01

1965-12-01

1965-05-01

1964-10-01

1964-03-01

1963-08-01

1963-01-01

BUSINESS CYCLE VS. REAL ESTATE CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES US recession Q4 2007 - Q2 2009

2009 – Present (Beginning of Recovery to Peak +/-9 years)

$350,000

$300,000

$250,000 $250,000

$200,000 $200,000

$150,000 $150,000

$100,000 $100,000

$50,000 $50,000

9 Years

$0

New Home Median Value

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


60

21 National Index Pricing Actual Index Value 2018-09-01

2018-05-01

2018-01-01

2017-09-01

2017-05-01

2017-01-01

220

2016-09-01

2016-05-01

2016-01-01

2015-09-01

2015-05-01

2015-01-01

2014-09-01

2014-05-01

2014-01-01

2013-09-01

2013-05-01

2013-01-01

2012-09-01

2012-05-01

2012-01-01

2011-09-01

2011-05-01

2011-01-01

2010-09-01

2010-05-01

2010-01-01

2009-09-01

2009-05-01

2009-01-01

2008-09-01

2006-06-01, 184.6

2008-05-01

2008-01-01

240

2007-09-01

2007-05-01

2007-01-01

2006-09-01

2006-05-01

2006-01-01

2 0 0 4

2005-09-01

2005-05-01

120

2005-01-01

140

2004-09-01

160

2004-05-01

2004-01-01

2003-09-01

80

2003-05-01

100

2003-01-01

2002-09-01

2002-05-01

2002-01-01

2001-09-01

2001-05-01

2001-01-01

2000-09-01

2000-05-01

2000-01-01

1999-09-01

1999-05-01

1999-01-01

1998-09-01

1998-05-01

1998-01-01

1997-09-01

1997-05-01

1997-01-01

1996-09-01

1996-05-01

1996-01-01

1995-09-01

1995-05-01

1995-01-01

1994-09-01

1994-05-01

1994-01-01

1993-09-01

1993-05-01

1993-01-01

1992-09-01

1992-05-01

1992-01-01

1991-09-01

1991-05-01

1991-01-01

1990-09-01

1990-05-01

1990-01-01

1989-09-01

1989-05-01

1989-01-01

1988-09-01

1988-05-01

1988-01-01

1987-09-01

1987-05-01

1987-01-01

REAL ESTATE PRICING INDEX

(S&P CASE-SHILLER U.S. NATIONAL HOME PRICE INDEX) 2006-05-01, 238.33 2018-11-01, 206.55

200

180

2 0 0 8

*Case Shiller Index adjusted for inflation to December 2018 pricing levels using Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Consumer Housing CPI.

Though current national home value levels are higher than previous market peaks, inflation adjusted values place current value levels at those experienced in 2004 or 2008.

Inflation Adjusted Value

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


LONG & SHORT TERM TREASURY YIELD CURVE RATES WITH U.S. CIVILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT 11%

The inverted yield curve, the point at which short term treasuries begin to yield more than long term treasuries, has shown to be one of the most consistent predictors of a coming recession. The current 3 month & 1 year treasury yields are approaching the 10 & 30 year yield level.

10% 9%

Contrary to previous inverted yield periods, overall rate levels are much lower than we’ve seen in the past. Should the yield curves invert, our current low rate levels may skew predictions of the onset of an impending recession.

8% 7% 6%

Labor Force Participation, 63.1%

5%

Effective Fed Funds

3 Mo

1 Yr

10 Yr

30 Yr

68% 67% 66% 65%

Unemployment Rate

9/2/18

5/2/18

1/2/18

9/2/17

5/2/17

1/2/17

9/2/16

5/2/16

1/2/16

9/2/15

5/2/15

1/2/15

9/2/14

5/2/14

1/2/14

9/2/13

5/2/13

1/2/13

9/2/12

5/2/12

1/2/12

9/2/11

5/2/11

1/2/11

9/2/10

5/2/10

1/2/10

9/2/09

5/2/09

1/2/09

9/2/08

5/2/08

1/2/08

9/2/07

64%

5/2/07

1/2/07

9/2/06

5/2/06

1/2/06

9/2/05

5/2/05

1/2/05

9/2/04

5/2/04

1/2/04

9/2/03

5/2/03

1/2/03

9/2/02

5/2/02

1/2/02

Y i e l d 9/2/01

5/2/00

1/2/00

9/2/99

5/2/99

1/2/99

9/2/98

5/2/98

1/2/98

9/2/97

5/2/97

1/2/97

9/2/96

5/2/96

1/2/96

9/2/95

5/2/95

1/2/95

9/2/94

5/2/94

1/2/94

9/2/93

5/2/93

1/2/93

9/2/92

5/2/92

1/2/92

9/2/91

5/2/91

1/2/91

9/2/90

5/2/90

0%

1/2/90

1%

Y i e l d 5/2/01

2%

I n v e r t e d

1/2/01

3%

I n v e r t e d

9/2/00

4%

69%

63%

Labor Force Participation

* 30-year Treasury constant maturity series was discontinued on February 18, 2002 and reintroduced on February 9, 2006. From February 18, 2002 to February 8, 2006, Treasury published alternatives to a 30-year rate.

22 Treasury Yields

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

23 Treasury Yields NASDAQ Effective Funds Rate 9/1/18

3/1/18

9/1/17

3/1/17

9/1/16

3/1/16

9/1/15

3/1/15

9/1/14

3/1/14

9/1/13

3/1/13

9/1/12

3/1/12

9/1/11

3/1/11

9/1/10

3/1/10

9/1/09

3/1/09

9/1/08

3/1/08

9/1/07

3/1/07

9/1/06

3/1/06

9/1/05

3/1/05

9/1/04

3/1/04

9/1/03

3/1/03

9/1/02

3/1/02

9/1/01

3/1/01

9/1/00

3/1/00

9/1/99

3/1/99

9/1/98

3/1/98

9/1/97

3/1/97

9/1/96

3/1/96

9/1/95

3/1/95

9/1/94

3/1/94

9/1/93

3/1/93

9/1/92

3/1/92

9/1/91

3/1/91

9/1/90

3/1/90

9/1/89

3/1/89

9/1/88

3/1/88

9/1/87

3/1/87

9/1/86

LAST 10 YEARS: Data Frequency Rate: Average NASDAQ Rate of Growth: Annualized Rate of Growth:

3/1/86

9/1/85

3/1/85

9/1/84

3/1/84

9/1/83

3/1/83

9/1/82

3/1/82

9/1/81

3/1/81

9/1/80

3/1/80

9/1/79

3/1/79

9/1/78

3/1/78

9/1/77

3/1/77

9/1/76

3/1/76

9/1/75

3/1/75

9/1/74

3/1/74

9/1/73

3/1/73

9/1/72

3/1/72

9/1/71

3/1/71

EFFECTIVE FUNDS RATE & EQUITY MARKET CORRELATION (NASDAQ) 1 OF 3 6,635

Monthly 1.28%/mo 15.3%

26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -16% -18% -20% -22%

NASDAQ Growth Rate

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


EFFECTIVE FUNDS RATE & EQUITY MARKET CORRELATION (DOW JONES – 10 YEARS) 2 OF 3 27,000

10%

25,000

8%

23,000

23,327

21,000

4%

19,000

2%

17,000

0%

15,000

-2%

13,000

-4%

11,000 LAST 10 YEARS: Data Frequency Rate: Average DOW Jones Rate of Growth: Annualized Rate of Growth:

9,000

Monthly 0.87%/mo 10.5%

9/1/08 11/1/08 1/1/09 3/1/09 5/1/09 7/1/09 9/1/09 11/1/09 1/1/10 3/1/10 5/1/10 7/1/10 9/1/10 11/1/10 1/1/11 3/1/11 5/1/11 7/1/11 9/1/11 11/1/11 1/1/12 3/1/12 5/1/12 7/1/12 9/1/12 11/1/12 1/1/13 3/1/13 5/1/13 7/1/13 9/1/13 11/1/13 1/1/14 3/1/14 5/1/14 7/1/14 9/1/14 11/1/14 1/1/15 3/1/15 5/1/15 7/1/15 9/1/15 11/1/15 1/1/16 3/1/16 5/1/16 7/1/16 9/1/16 11/1/16 1/1/17 3/1/17 5/1/17 7/1/17 9/1/17 11/1/17 1/1/18 3/1/18 5/1/18 7/1/18 9/1/18 11/1/18

7,000 5,000

6%

DOW Jones

24 Treasury Yields

Effective Funds Rate

-6% -8% -10%

DOW Growth Rate

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


EFFECTIVE FUNDS RATE & EQUITY MARKET CORRELATION (S&P 500 – 10 YEARS) 3 OF 3 3,000 2,750 2,500

2,507

2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250

S&P 500

25 Treasury Yields

Effective Funds Rate

9/1/18

11/1/18

7/1/18

5/1/18

Monthly 0.9%/mo 11.0% 1/1/18

9/1/17

11/1/17

7/1/17

5/1/17

3/1/17

1/1/17

9/1/16

11/1/16

7/1/16

5/1/16

3/1/16

1/1/16

9/1/15

7/1/15

5/1/15

3/1/15

1/1/15

9/1/14

11/1/14

7/1/14

5/1/14

3/1/14

1/1/14

9/1/13

11/1/13

7/1/13

5/1/13

3/1/13

1/1/13

9/1/12

11/1/12

7/1/12

5/1/12

3/1/12

1/1/12

9/1/11

11/1/11

7/1/11

5/1/11

3/1/11

1/1/11

9/1/10

11/1/10

7/1/10

5/1/10

3/1/10

1/1/10

9/1/09

11/1/09

7/1/09

5/1/09

3/1/09

1/1/09

9/1/08

500

11/1/08

750

11/1/15

LAST 10 YEARS: Data Frequency Rate: Average S&P Rate of Growth: Annualized Rate of Growth:

3/1/18

1,000

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -16% -18% -20%

S&P Growth Rate

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Jan-91

0.00%

26 Mortgage Delinquency Residential Loans Commercial Loans

May-1 8

Jan-18

Sep-1 7

May-1 7

Jan-17

Sep-1 6

May-1 6

Oct-07, 3.09%

Jan-16

Sep-1 5

May-1 5

Jan-15

Sep-1 4

May-1 4

Jan-14

Sep-1 3

May-1 3

Jan-13

Sep-1 2

May-1 2

Jan-12

Sep-1 1

May-1 1

Jan-11

Sep-1 0

May-1 0

12.00%

Jan-10

Sep-0 9

May-0 9

Jan-09

Sep-0 8

Oct-04, 1.41%

May-0 8

Jan-08

Sep-0 7

May-0 7

Jan-07

Sep-0 6

May-0 6

Jan-06

Sep-0 5

May-0 5

Jan-05

Sep-0 4

May-0 4

Jan-04

Sep-0 3

2.00%

May-0 3

3.00%

Jan-03

Sep-0 2

May-0 2

Jan-02

Sep-0 1

May-0 1

Jan-01

Sep-0 0

May-0 0

Jan-00

Sep-9 9

May-9 9

Jan-99

Sep-9 8

May-9 8

Jan-98

Sep-9 7

May-9 7

Jan-97

Sep-9 6

May-9 6

Jan-96

Sep-9 5

May-9 5

Jan-95

Sep-9 4

May-9 4

Jan-94

Sep-9 3

May-9 3

Jan-93

Sep-9 2

May-9 2

Jan-92

Sep-9 1

May-9 1

HISTORIC NATIONAL MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES Jan-10, 11.53%

11.00%

10.00%

9.00%

8.00%

7.00%

6.00%

5.00%

4.00%

Jul-18, 3.01%

1.00%

Jul-18, 0.69%

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


HISTORIC DEBT ACCUMULATION (BILLIONS) Beginning of Financial Crisis

$1,600

Q3 2018, $1,563.6

$1,400

$1,200

Q3 2018, $1,141.4

$1,000 Q3 2018, $844.0 $800

$600

$400

Q1 2003

Q1 2004

Q1 2005

Q1 2006

Auto Debt Source:

Q1 2007

Q1 2008

Q1 2009

Q1 2010

Q1 2011

Credit Card Debt

Q1 2012

Q1 2013

Q1 2014

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

Q1 2017

Q1 2018

Student Loan Debt

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

27 Debt Accumulation

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


HISTORIC LOAN DELINQUENCY RATES (>90 DAYS – PAST 15 YEARS) 11.0% 10.5% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%

Beginning of Financial Crisis

Q4 2009, 10.96% Q4 2011, 9.31%

Q3 2018, 9.07%

STUDENT LOAN TIME COMPARISON LINE

Q3 2011, 8.87%

Q3 2018, 4.80%

Q3 2012, 4.85% CREDIT CARD TIME COMPARISON LINE

Q2 2009, 3.48% Q4 2010, 2.31%

AUTO LOAN TIME COMPARISON LINE

Q1 2003

Q1 2004

Q1 2005

Q1 2006

Q1 2007

Q1 2008

Q1 2009

Auto Deliquency Source:

Q1 2013, 10.54%

Q1 2010

Q1 2011

Q1 2012

Credit Card Deliquency

Q3 2018, 2.30%

Q1 2013

Q1 2014

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

Q1 2017

Q1 2018

Student Loan Del iquency

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

28 Loan Delinquencies

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


POST WAR US GDP & ANNUAL GDP GROWTH RATE (1947-2018) $22,000 $20,000 $18,000 $16,000

Takeaway: Average annual U.S. GDP growth during expansionary periods has declined since the 1960’s. Globalization & industry export has increased competition and reduced overall rate of production growth. Productivity must prevail in order to recapture higher rates of annual GDP growth.

R e c e s s i o n

R e c e s s i o n

R e c e s s i o n

R e c e s s i o n

2018 Q3, $20,658

18% 16% 14%

2017, $18,224

12%

$14,000

10%

$12,000

8%

$10,000

6%

$8,000

4%

$6,000

2% FLAT GDP GROWTH LINE (0%)

$4,000 $2,000 $0

Pre 2001 Recession (1992-2000)

(Pre financial crisis) 2002-2007

Post Financial Crisis (2010-Present)

1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q3

1980’s (1983-1990)

0%

GDP Current Dollars (Billions)

GDP 2012 Dollars (Billions)

-2% -4%

Annual Current Dollar GDP Growth

*GDP reflected in current dollars & 2009 dollars **Highlighted GDP areas remove recessionary gap periods for establishment of “stabilized” GDP growth rates during economic expansion/recovery periods.

29 GDP Growth Rates

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


NATIONAL DEBT & RATE OF GROWTH (PAST 20 YEARS - PUBLIC & INTRAGOVERNMENTAL DEBT) $22T $21T $20T $19T $18T $17T $16T $15T $14T $13T $12T $11T $10T $9T $8T $7T $6T $5T $4T $3T $2T $1T $T

Current federal budget deficits indicate no slowing in federal debt acquisition. Despite private sector growth over the past several years, sovereign debt concerns, long term, will likely affect the value of the dollar and the perception of the financial strength of the United States.

2009, 22.0%

Until and unless the U.S. federal government reigns in deficit spending, the overall economy, despite private sector growth, will suffer adverse long term and lasting effects.

22.0% 21.0% 2018, 20.0% $22T 19.0% 18.0% 2018, 17.0% $16T 16.0% 15.0% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 2018, 5.0% $6T 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Donald Trump: TBD 1.0% 0.0%

2017, $20T

2009, $12T

2001, $6T

Bill Clinton – Total Debt Added: +/-$1.4T 1997

1998

1999

2000

George W. Bush – Total Debt Added: +/-$5.8T 2001

2002

Government Debt

30 National Debt

2003

2004

2005

2006

Public Debt

2007

2008

Barak Obama – Total Debt Added: +/-$8.6T 2009

2010

Total Natn'l Debt

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Total Annual Rate of Growth

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


$T 1966-01-01 1966-11-01 1967-09-01 1968-07-01 1969-05-01 1970-03-01 1971-01-01 1971-11-01 1972-09-01 1973-07-01 1974-05-01 1975-03-01 1976-01-01 1976-11-01 1977-09-01 1978-07-01 1979-05-01 1980-03-01 1981-01-01 1981-11-01 1982-09-01 1983-07-01 1984-05-01 1985-03-01 1986-01-01 1986-11-01 1987-09-01 1988-07-01 1989-05-01 1990-03-01 1991-01-01 1991-11-01 1992-09-01 1993-07-01 1994-05-01 1995-03-01 1996-01-01 1996-11-01 1997-09-01 1998-07-01 1999-05-01 2000-03-01 2001-01-01 2001-11-01 2002-09-01 2003-07-01 2004-05-01 2005-03-01 2006-01-01 2006-11-01 2007-09-01 2008-07-01 2009-05-01 2010-03-01 2011-01-01 2011-11-01 2012-09-01 2013-07-01 2014-05-01 2015-03-01 2016-01-01 2016-11-01 2017-09-01 2018-07-01

NATIONAL DEBT AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP

$22T

140%

$20T

$18T

120%

$16T

100%

$14T

$12T

80%

$10T

60%

$8T

$6T

40%

$4T

$2T

20%

Total National Debt

31 National Debt Debt as % of GDP 0%

Non-Financial Corporate Debt as % of GDP

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


ORANGE COUNTY MARKET PERFORMANCE CURRENT AND HISTORIC SALES & INVENTORY SUMMARY

RETURN TO TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year History Orange County Purchasing Method Percentages 75%

73.05%

68.60%

65% 55%

51.71%

53.48%

53.62%

53.85%

42.92%

42.29%

56.19% 50.91%

42.57%

35%

51.91%

44.54%

42.05%

37.77% 31.90%

25%

29.93%

28.30%

20.04%

5% -5%

62.81%

44.43%

45%

15%

60.63%

2008

2009

2010

2011

All Cash

33 Orange County

2012

2013

0.25%

0.28%

0.22%

0.23%

2014

2015

2016

2017

New Institutional Financing

0.10% 2018

Seller Financing

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Orange County - Median Home Value Annual Growth Trajectory 30.0%

30.0% 22.0% 10.7%

14.0%

5.2%

6.0% -2.0%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

9.7%

10.3%

12.1%

2014

2015

2016

8.9%

9.8%

2017

2018

-10.0% -18.0%

-14.4%

-16.0%

-26.0% -34.0% -42.0%

-41.5%

34 Orange County

End-of-Year Value Growth

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Median Home Value and CDOM 160 140 120

$258,000

151

$250,000

$235,000 $215,875

126

$213,498

$192,500

108 96

100

102

$159,000

81

$125,000

80

$104,950

$200,000

$174,500

67

$116,200

76

$150,000 75

68

$122,300

60

60

69

53

40 40

20

$100,000

45

44 29

41

28

$50,000 31

24

19

0

$0

2008

2009

35 Orange County

2010 2011 Median CDOM

2012

2013 2014 2015 Average CDOM

2016 2017 2018 Median Value

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 SUMMARY CDOM & Days to Sell by Market Segment $0-$249k:

14

15 25

$250k-$499k:

35

24 47

$500k-$749k:

NOTE: Luxury market sales account for only +/-2.0% of total market sales.

36 54 60 86

54

104 107 89

62

$750k-$999k:

58

$1M-$1.999M:

Days on market statistics account ONLY for those properties that have sold and not current time on market of all existing excess inventory.

73

139

118 113

$2M-$2.999M:

119 45

$3M-$3.999M:

67 38 112

$4M-$4.999M:

142 127 143

148 148

$5M+: 0

50 100 Median Days to Sell

36 Orange County

*13 transactions 169 163

201

150 200 Average Days to Sell

*2 transactions

250 300 Median CDOM

368 359 375

350 400 Average CDOM

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Sales Transaction & Volume Performance by Year (Total County) 24,000

Investment purchasing – absorption of distressed product

22,000

19,187

20,000 18,000

TRANSACTION PLATEAU – Institutional financing makes its resurgence as a viable mainstream option for purchasing real estate.

18,324

18,135

18,526

21,702

21,930

$7,000M

18,678 $6,767M $6,160M

$6,000M $5,000M

$5,446M

14,000

$5,077M

12,000

$4,139M

10,000 9,080 8,000 4,000

21,339

16,175

16,000

6,000

21,743

$8,000M

$2,382M

$3,788M $2,579M

$2,798M

$2,829M

$3,080M

TRANSACTION PLATEAU – Lack of land availability has hampered new construction capacity. Lengthening of the traditional sales cycle from 4-6 years to 6-10 years has diminished existing home sales and inventory turnover. Increased new construction opportunities and/or shortening of the current existing home sale cycle is needed to bring ne capacity to the marketplace.

$4,000M $3,000M $2,000M $1,000M

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Transactions

37 Orange County

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 - CUMULATIVE TRANSACTION Performance by Year (10 Year History) 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000

4,741

6,000 4,000

4,226

4,177

4,629

4,182

4,976

5,083

4,905

5,133

5,047

2,382

2,000 0 2008

2009 Q1

38 Orange County

2010 Q2

2011

2012 Q3

2013 Q4

2014

2015 Q1 -Q4 Total

2016

2017

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


END OF Q2 SUMMARY - CUMULATIVE VOLUME Performance by Year (10 Year History) $6,000M $5,500M $5,000M $4,500M $4,000M $3,500M $3,000M $2,500M

$1,506M

$2,000M

$1,220M

$1,500M $1,000M

$507M

$740M

$621M

$702M

$818M

$873M

$1,560M

$1,281M

$1,080M

$500M $M 2008

2009 Q1

39 Orange County

2010 Q2

2011

2012 Q3

2013 Q4

2014

2015

Q1 - Q4 Total

2016

2017

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Sales Transaction & Volume Performance 2,300

$676M

2,200

1,900

$675M $649M

2,100 2,000

$725,000,000

$594M

$595M

2,115

$658M

$675,000,000

2,165

$625,000,000 2,085

2,097

$554M 2,002 1,803

$517M

$526M

$420M

$525,000,000

$493M

1,903

1,800 1,700

$575,000,000

$541M

$424M

$475,000,000

1,802

1,600

$425,000,000

1,681

1,628

1,617

1,500 1,400 1,300

$325,000,000

1,470 1,365

Dec-17

Jan-18

$275,000,000 Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Transactions

40 Orange County

$375,000,000

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison

Transaction Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

10,470 5,647

$250,000-$499,999:

6,664

7,677

9,297

749 851 1,013 1,288

$500,000-$749,999:

$5M+ 0.05%

$4-$5M 0.03%

14,796

13,223

11,958 $3-$4M 0.11%

$2-$3M 0.30%

$1-$2M 1.54%

$750k-$1M 1.95% $500-$750k 5.87%

226 287 531 428

$750,000-$999,999:

237 252 324 337

$1 million-$1.999 million: $2 million-$2.999 million:

40 37 59 65

$3 million-$3.999 million:

13 18 17 24

$4 million-$4.999 million:

3 5 5 6

2018 Transaction Percentages

4 2 7 12

$5 million and up: 0

2,000

4,000

2015

41 Orange County

6,000

2016

8,000

10,000

2017

$0-$250k 47.75%

$250-$500k 42.40%

12,000

14,000

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison

Volume Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999: 1743M

2087M 1986M 1902M 1849M

$250,000-$499,999:

2633M

2189M

3098M 449M

$500,000-$749,999: 193M

$750,000-$999,999: $1 million-$1.999 million: 96M 92M

$2 million-$2.999 million:

45M 58M 59M 84M 13M 22M 22M 26M

$3 million-$3.999 million: $4 million-$4.999 million:

511M 606M

$5M+ 1.05%

765M

$750k-$1M 5.39% $0-$250k 25.76%

143M 151M

2018 Volume Percentages $500,000,000

2015

42 Orange County

$2-$3M 2.23% $1-$2M 6.85%

71M

$-

$3-$4M 1.24%

244M 319M 365M 319M 333M 442M 464M

26M 16M 48M

$5 million and up:

$4-$5M 0.38%

$500-$750k 11.31%

$250-$500k 45.79%

$1,000,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $2,500,000,000 $3,000,000,000

2016

2017

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Annual Inventory Levels 18,000

$5,000,000,000

$4,655M

16,362

$4,500,000,000

16,000

$4,000,000,000 $3,380M

14,000

$2,942M

13,244

12,000

$3,500,000,000

12,128

10,000 8,000

$2,453M $2,433M $2,162M $1,878M $1,892M

$2,489M $2,182M

$2,500,000,000

$1,500,000,000 6,374

6,575

$3,000,000,000

$2,000,000,000 7,127

8,542

6,000 4,000

$2,493M

5,277 6,163

$1,000,000,000 4,292

4,929

$500,000,000 $0

2008

2009

2010

Listings

43 Orange County

2011

2012

2013

Volume

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Poly. (Listings)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months Inventory Levels 5,800

$2,800,000,000 $2,688M $2,689M$2,675M $2,702M $2,676M

5,600 $2,593M

5,400 5,200

4,800

$2,303M $2,182M

4,669

5,213

$2,370M $2,337M 4,712

4,681

5,521 $2,489M

5,366

$2,480M

5,000

4,600

5,525

$2,542M

$2,700,000,000

5,302

$2,500,000,000 $2,400,000,000 4,929

4,701

4,711

4,675

4,000

$2,300,000,000 $2,200,000,000

4,400 4,200

$2,600,000,000

$2,100,000,000

4,292

$2,000,000,000 Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Listings

44 Orange County

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Median Annual Inventory Levels by Market Segment 4,500 4,435

4,194

4,047

4,000 3,500

2,818

3,000 2,500

2,219

2,045 2,248

1,887

2,000 1,500

2,255

2,048 1,616

1,215

1,000 500 0

269 172 151 59 24 8 15

2013 $0-$250k $1M-$2M $5M +

45 Orange County

388 168 227 74 22 8 17

2014

444 217271 70 29 8 12

2015 $250k-$500k $2M-$3M Poly. ($0-$250k)

562 281 295 76 28 8 20

540 269307 78 28 10 23

2016

2017

$500k-$750k $3M-$4M Poly. ($250k-$500k)

550 290304 78 30 11 19

2018 $750k-$1M $4M-$5M

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Data Median Annual Months of Inventory & Sale to List % 20.5 20 18

95.60%

16

97.60%

94.25%

97.90%

95.50% 93.15%

14

11.4 8.7

87.55%

98.30%

96.80%

97.60%

95.40%

97.70%

95.65%

97.90%

96.35%

98.00% 96.70%

98.20% 97.20%

The variance between original list to sale % vs. current list to sale % may be an indication of 1) a more honed pricing strategy or 2) market conditions. Supply & demand vs. time-on-market play an interchanged role in this metric.

88.95%

12 10

98.95%

97.75%

9.2

100%

95%

90%

85%

8

6.0

6

4.9

4

3.9

3.8

3.9

3.6

2.8

80%

2 0

2008

2009

2010

2011

Months of Inventory

46 Orange County

2012

2013

2014

Sale to Original Price %

2015

2016

2017

2018

75%

Sale to List Price %

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Transaction Performance by Product Type 1,800 1,600

1,624

1,554

1,459

1,567

1,561

1,383

1,400 1,328

1,308 1,194

1,200

1,138

1,052

983

1,000

1,186

800 600 400 200 0

266 158

122 211

140238

173

282

192 248 198 289

196 271 193267

24

16

13

20

23

10

21

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Single Family Home

47 Orange County

Townhouse

17 Jul-18

190

283

176 266

154292

167 231 149231

25

15

14

13

14

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Condo

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Volume Performance by Product Type $700,000,000 586M

574M

$600,000,000 501M

497M

$500,000,000 465M

558M

557M

451M

420M $400,000,000

351M

426M

408M

350M

$300,000,000 $200,000,000 $100,000,000 $0

39M 44M 3M Dec-17

27M 36M 2M Jan-18

37M 33M

44M 37M

2M

3M

Feb-18

Mar-18

Single Family Home

48 Orange County

50M

44M 37M 4M Apr-18

43M 2M May-18

49M 42M 3M Jun-18

Townhouse

48M

47M 37M 3M Jul-18

43M 4M

Aug-18

Condo

54M 37M 3M Sep-18

42M

41M

41M 2M Oct-18

33M 2M

36M 35M 3M

Nov-18 Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Transaction Performance by Month 2,152

2,200

2,164 2,115 2,026

2,000

1,912

1,867

2,099

1,963

1,940 1,866 1,903

2,103 2,097

2,085 1,969

2,000

2,002

1,862

2,209 2,165

2,094

2,030 1,988

1,854 1,864

1,746

1,802

1,800

1,804 1,803

1,748 1,681

1,600

1,683 1,606

1,647 1,628

1,462 1,514

1,617

1,526 1,495

1,514 1,476

1,470

1,400

1,809

1,362 1,365 1,334 1,293

1,200 1,000

January

February

March

2015

49 Orange County

April

May

June

2016

July

August

2017

September

October

November December

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Volume Performance by Month $700,000,000

$676M

$675M $658M

$649M

$649M

$650,000,000 $616M $595M

$594M

$600,000,000

$570M

$568M

$583M $561M

$550,000,000 $516M $460M $455M

$450,000,000

$420M

$400,000,000

$462M

$519M

$462M $435M

$463M $454M

$421M $426M $414M $398M

$365M

$353M

$341M $297M

$493M

$490M

$463M

$388M

$350,000,000

$526M

$517M $489M

$444M

$443M

$424M

$512M $503M

$508M

$496M

$500,000,000

$300,000,000

$554M

$541M

$323M

$283M

$250,000,000 January

February

March

2015

50 Orange County

April

May

2016

June

July

August

September October November December

2017

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


ORLANDO MARKET PERFORMANCE CURRENT AND HISTORIC SALES & INVENTORY SUMMARY

*NOTE: ORLANDO REPRESENTS A LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA WITHIN ORANGE COUNTY. SUB-MARKETS OF THE GREATER ORLANDO MARKET ARE INCLUDED WITHIN THIS REPORT FOR MORE DETAILED UNDERSTANDING OF MARKET SEGMENT DISPERSION.

RETURN TO TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Orlando - Median Home Value Annual Growth Trajectory 26.6%

30.0% 22.0%

14.7%

14.0%

10.9%

11.4%

10.2%

11.6%

10.8%

9.3%

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

6.0% -2.0%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

-10.0% -18.0%

-14.7%

-26.0%

-19.5%

-34.0% -42.0%

52 Orlando

End-of-Year Value Growth

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Median Home Value and CDOM 160 140

$236,385

145

$250,000

$216,250

$204,500

$195,250

122

120

$200,000

$175,000 $158,750

100

89

106

75

80

$110,000 $88,500

60

93

$150,000

$142,500

62

$101,500

72

72

64

56

$112,550

67

48

40 35

20

43

40 26

39

26

$100,000

$50,000 28

22

17

0

$0

2008

2009

2010

2011

Median CDOM

53 Orlando

2012

2013

2014

Average CDOM

2015

2016

2017

2018

Median Value

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 SUMMARY CDOM & Days to Sell by Market Segment 14

$0-$249k:

14 25

$250k-$499k:

NOTE: Luxury market sales account for only +/-2.0% of total market sales.

34 36 48

26

$500k-$749k:

77

38

98

43

$750k-$999k:

Days on market statistics account ONLY for those properties that have sold and not current time on market of all existing excess inventory.

55

35

109

66 84 81

$1M-$1.999M: $2M-$2.999M:

127

109

131 128 91

46 46

$3M-$3.999M:

52 52

$4M-$4.999M:

*2 transactions

81 81

152 152

70 70 101 101

$5M+: 0

20

40

Median Days to Sell

54 Orlando

60

80

Average Days to Sell

100

163 163

120 Median CDOM

140

160

180

Average CDOM

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Sales Transaction & Volume Performance by Year 16,000

15,385

14,731 13,458

14,000

12,509

13,088

13,268

14,857

$4,000M

$3,288M

$3,000M

$3,091M

$2,500M

6,496

$2,468M $2,279M

6,000

2,000

$3,500M

$3,649M

$1,479M

$4,500M

$4,006M

10,000

4,000

14,834

13,169

12,000

8,000

15,033

$1,695M

$1,779M

$1,709M

$2,000M

$1,868M

TRANSACTION PLATEAU – Similar overall market capacity challenges as experienced on a county-wide level.

$1,500M $1,000M

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Transactions

55 Orlando

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE TRANSACTION Performance by Year (10 Year History) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 3,658

4,000 2,000

3,190

3,027

3,298

3,026

3,548

3,601

3,399

3,514

3,425

1,730

0 2008

2009 Q1

56 Orlando

2010 Q2

2011

2012 Q3

2013 Q4

2014

2015 Q1 - Q4 Total

2016

2017

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE VOLUME Performance by Year (10 Year History) $3,500M $3,000M $2,500M $2,000M $1,500M $1,000M $500M

$323M

$481M

$388M

$415M

$492M

$537M

$660M

$741M

$769M

$878M

$931M

$M 2008

2009 Q1

57 Orlando

2010 Q2

2011

2012 Q3

2013 Q4

2014

2015 Q1 - Q4 Total

2016

2017

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Sales Transaction & Volume Performance 1,600

$450,000,000 $393M

1,500 $350M

1,400 1,300 1,200

$351M

$408M

$312M 1,190

$382M

1,411

1,422

$350,000,000

$306M $325M $296M

1,346

$310M $300,000,000

1,249

$237M

1,220

1,100

$250,000,000 1,115

1,122

1,090 $200,000,000

1,000 900

$400,000,000

1,475 1,425

$258M

$389M

1,015 944 Dec-17

Jan -18

$150,000,000 Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Transactions

58 Orlando

Jun-18

Jul-18

Au g-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Transaction Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

8,199 3,375

$250,000-$499,999: $500,000-$749,999: 79 108

$750,000-$999,999:

3,988

4,761

$3-$4M 0.02%

5,564

$4-$5M 0.03% $5M+ 0.02%

406 478 539 726

$2-$3M 0.13%

$1-$2M 0.78%

$750k-$1M 1.27% $500-$750k 4.90%

157 188 63 73 114 115

$1 million-$1.999 million:

15 7 7 20 0 2 1 3

$2 million-$2.999 million: $3 million-$3.999 million:

2018 Transaction Percentages

0 1 1 4 0 0 0 3

$4 million-$4.999 million: $5 million and up: 0

2,000

2015

59 Orlando

11,556 10,325 11,299

4,000

6,000

2016

8,000

2017

$0-$250k 55.32%

10,000

$250-$500k 37.54%

12,000

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Volume Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

1163M 1095M

$250,000-$499,999: 244M 287M 320M 372M

$500,000-$749,999:

1603M 1555M

1295M $5M+ 0.43%

1566M

$3-$4M 0.47%

$4-$5M 0.58%

$2-$3M 1.23% $1-$2M 3.73%

68M 92M 132M 138M

$750,000-$999,999:

83M 90M

$1 million-$1.999 million:

$750k-$1M 4.29%

150M 135M

$3 million-$3.999 million:

K 6M 4M 11M

$4 million-$4.999 million:

K 5M 4M 17M K K K

$5 million and up: $-

$500-$750k 11.19%

$0-$250k 33.28%

36M 17M 16M 46M

$2 million-$2.999 million:

2018 Volume Percentages

20M

$250,000,000

$500,000,000

2015

60 Orlando

1495M 1483M

$250-$500k 44.82%

$750,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $1,250,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $1,750,000,000

2016

2017

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Annual Inventory Levels 12,500

$3,000,000,000

12,260

11,500 10,500

$2,690M

$2,500,000,000 9,512

9,500

8,648

$2,000,000,000

8,500 $1,774M

7,500

$1,497M

6,500

$1,284M $1,239M $1,188M

5,946 $937M

5,500

4,628

3,500

$1,500,000,000

$1,013M

$978M

$1,000,000,000

$1,020M

4,500

2,500

$1,259M

4,931 4,253

4,317

3,432

3,291 2,682

$500,000,000

$0 2008

2009

2010

Listings

61 Orlando

2011

2012

2013

Volume

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Poly. (Listings)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months Inventory Levels (Total Units) 3,700 $1,302M

3,500

$1,319M

$1,339M $1,330M

$1,260M

3,300 $1,185M

3,100

$1,153M

2,900 2,700 2,500

2,988

$1,400,000,000

3,645 3,658

$1,350,000,000 $1,259M $1,300,000,000

3,498 3,352

$1,210M

$1,369M $1,367M

3,410 3,291

3,268

$1,200,000,000

$1,225M 3,147

2,996

3,023

$1,250,000,000

$1,150,000,000

3,043

$1,100,000,000

2,682

$1,050,000,000 $1,013M Dec-17

Jan-18

$1,000,000,000 Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Units

62 Orlando

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Median Inventory Levels by Market Segment 3,500 3,408

3,278

3,210

3,000 2,256

2,500 2,000

1,642

1,500 1,000

1,330

1,328

1,350

1,309

1,119 751

500 0

1,264

128 60 47 22 4 2 5

2013 $0-$250k $1M-$2M $5M +

63 Orlando

199 85 58 27 6 1 5

2014

235

78 96 22 6 3 4

2015 $250k-$500k $2M-$3M Linear ($0-$250k)

303 132 101 17 4 2 6

289 108115 17 7 3 4

2016

2017

$500k-$750k $3M-$4M Power ($250k-$500k)

309

129106 26 6 3 7

2018

$750k-$1M $4M-$5M

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Data Median Annual Months of Inventory & Sale to List % 30 25

100.00% 97.40%

98.20%

98.05%

98.15%

22.4 95.70%

20

95.25%

9.0

7.6

2008

2009

2010

5.9

2011

Months of Inventory

64 Orlando

95.50%

95.70%

96.45%

98.00%

96.75% 97.10%

98% 96% 94%

The variance between original list to sale % vs. current list to sale % may be an indication of 1) a more honed pricing strategy or 2) market conditions. Supply & demand vs. time-on-market play an interchanged role in this metric.

5 0

96.80%

97.95%

100%

92%

89.10%

10

97.70%

97.65%

98.10%

93.55%

90.70%

15

98.55%

4.8

2012

4.0

2013

4.2

2014

Sale to Original Price %

3.8

2015

3.3

2016

90% 88% 86% 2.8

2017

2.7

Q2 2018

84% 82% 80%

Sale to List Price %

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Transaction Performance by Product Type 1,200 949

1,000

1,021

998

879

825

800

1,054

1,002

836

691

638

782

756

748

600 400 224

200 0

102 22

263

18

16

22

Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Jul-18

204 90

14

12

Dec-17 Jan-18

17

Single Family Home

65 Orlando

137 228

244 119

187 79

245 97

242

204 104 21

125 10

Townhouse

125

231

254

108

101

15

12

204 102

193 90

13

13

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Condo

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Volume Performance by Product Type $350,000,000

$320M

$250,000,000

$323M

$308M

$291M

$288M

$300,000,000

$332M

$247M

$243M

$237M

$242M

$206M

$187M

$200,000,000

$260M

$150,000,000 $100,000,000

$26M

$50,000,000 $0

$17M

$21M

$21M

$34M

$28M

$28M

$32M

$3M

$2M

$2M

$3M

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Single Family Home

66 Orlando

$30M

$23M $29M $4M Apr-18

$35M

$29M

$29M $40M

$35M

$33M

$33M

$2M

$3M

$2M

May-18

Jun-18

Townhouse

Jul-18

$28M

$4M

Aug-18

Condo

$25M

$25M

$31M

$36M

$28M

$3M

$2M

$2M

Sep-18

Oct-18

$22M $26M $2M

Nov-18 Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Transaction Performance by Month 1,600

1,546 1,523 1,496

1,500 1,414

1,369

1,400

1,308

1,346

1,411 1,341

1,488

1,447 1,475

1,425

1,411 1,377 1,358

1,356

1,434 1,433 1,422 1,374 1,305 1,304

1,264 1,228 1,249

1,300

1,222

1,271 1,230

1,220

1,200

1,145 1,122

1,100 1,000

1,035 970 927

1,006

1,190

1,108 1,179

1,128 1,041

1,115

1,090

1,042 1,029

1,015

955 944

900 800

January

February

March

2015

67 Orlando

April

May

2016

June

July

August

2017

September

October

November December

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Volume Performance by Month $408M

$400,000,000

$393M

$389M

$382M

$382M

$371M $351M

$350M

$350,000,000

$325M

$330M $322M

$321M

$282M $273M $258M

$250,000,000

$265M $268M

$313M

$351M $325M

$323M

$304M

$300M

$300,000,000

$345M

$296M $280M

$275M

$296M $289M $278M

$277M $251M

$272M $257M

$237M

$312M $310M

$306M

$248M

$240M

$264M

$229M

$226M $213M

$200,000,000

$203M $188M $175M

$182M

$150,000,000 January

February

March

2015

68 Orlando

April

May

2016

June

July

August

2017

September October November December

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


THE REPORT

WINDERMERE MARKET PERFORMANCE CURRENT AND HISTORIC SALES & INVENTORY SUMMARY

RETURN TO TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Windermere - Median Home Value Annual Growth Trajectory 30.0% 19.4%

22.0% 13.6%

14.0% 3.5%

6.0% -2.0%

2008

2009

2010

0.2% 2011

2012

7.2%

6.8%

6.3%

2013

2014

-10.0%

0.2% 2015 -2.6%

2016

2017

2018

-18.0% -26.0% -34.0% -42.0%

-24.1% -34.2%

70 Windermere

End-of-Year Value Growth

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Median Home Value and CDOM 200 180 160

$410,720

180 167 $374,100

155

$382,463

154

$367,125

$367,873

$400,000

$383,250

$375,000

$358,245

140

$350,000

120 100

$425,000

111 111 71

80

40 $246,000

2008

2009

2010

2011

Median CDOM

71 Windermere

75

75

$254,500

20

112

112

103

65 40

38

2012

2013

$275,000 63

60

$250,000 40

2014

Average CDOM

2015

$325,000 $300,000

$307,500

53

60

100

$289,183

108

96

2016

2017

$225,000

2018

Median Value

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 SUMMARY CDOM & Days to Sell by Market Segment 15

$0-$249k:

15

$250k-$499k:

NOTE: Luxury market sales account for only +/-2.0% of total market sales.

34 35 30

54 33 63 44

$500k-$749k:

95

59

69 86

$750k-$999k:

81

$1M-$1.999M:

Days on market statistics account ONLY for those properties that have sold and not current time on market of all existing excess inventory.

110 131

118 102 101 120 101

$2M-$2.999M: 71 88 73

$3M-$3.999M: 0 0 0 0

$4M-$4.999M:

176 193

193 193

474 474

$5M+: 0

100

200

Median Days to Sell

72 Windermere

300

400

Average Days to Sell

500

758 588

600

Median CDOM

700

800

Average CDOM

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Sales Transaction & Volume Performance by Year 1,200 1,064

1,100 961

1,000 870

900

700

611

654

689

$500M $444M

200

$499M

$450M

$456M

$400M $350M

$337M

$344M

$300M

$304M

$303M

$250M

$260M 2008

2009

$200M 2010

2011

2012

Transactions

73 Windermere

$600M $550M

469

400 300

1,068

$500M

740

600

$700M $650M

$595M

808

800

500

947

$647M

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE TRANSACTION Performance by Year (10 Year History) 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200

119

177

150

166

181

168

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

222

219

225

257

249

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

100 0 2008

Q1

74 Windermere

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 - Q4 Total

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE VOLUME Performance by Year (10 Year History) $600M $550M $500M $450M $400M $350M $300M $250M $200M $150M $100M

$57M

$81M

$63M

$89M

$85M

$95M

$112M

$109M

$122M

$152M

$156M

$50M $M 2008

2009 Q1

75 Windermere

2010 Q2

2011

2012 Q3

2013 Q4

2014

2015

Q1 - Q4 Total

2016

2017

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Sales Transaction & Volume Performance $76M

120

$70M

110

114 $57M

100 90

$80,000,000

$41M

$63M

$55M $39M

$65M

101

100

96

95

105

$60M

$50M

$60,000,000

105 $42M

$37M $49M

$30,000,000 69

67 56 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Transactions

76 Windermere

$50,000,000 $40,000,000

75

60 50

90

90

80 70

$70,000,000

$20,000,000 $10,000,000

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Transaction Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

230 220

179 140

434

$250,000-$499,999:

453 133 143

$500,000-$749,999: 59 66 59

$750,000-$999,999: $1 million-$1.999 million:

70

8

$3 million-$3.999 million:

7 8 8 9

$5 million and up:

1 0 3

0

$2-$3M 1.69% $1-$2M 7.58%

$0-$250k 13.11%

79

$750k-$1M 8.24%

94

23 18 $500-$750k 18.35%

2018 Transaction Percentages

8

50

100

2015

77 Windermere

196

528

$5M+ $3-$4M 0.75% 0.84%

12

$2 million-$2.999 million:

0 3 1 0

$4-$5M 0.00%

88

81

$4 million-$4.999 million:

160

470

150

200

250

2016

300

350

2017

$250-$500k 49.44%

400

450

500

550

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Volume Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

44M 41M

33M 30M

153M

$250,000-$499,999: 80M

$500,000-$749,999: 51M 56M 51M

$750,000-$999,999:

87M

20M

42M

K K

$5 million and up:

K

$-

134M

$2-$3M 5.87%

2018 Volume Percentages

8M 11M

45M

$30,000,000

2015

$1-$2M 15.87%

$250-$500k 30.75%

13M

5M

111M 116M

54M

25M 28M 31M

$4 million-$4.999 million:

$5M+ 7.02%

29M

24M

$3 million-$3.999 million:

$0-$250k 4.84%

121M

189M

75M 100M

$2 million-$2.999 million:

175M

$3-$4M 7.23%

$1 million-$1.999 million:

78 Windermere

103M

164M

$60,000,000

$90,000,000

2016

$500-$750k 19.27%

$750k-$1M 9.16%

$120,000,000 $150,000,000 $180,000,000 $210,000,000

2017

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Annual Inventory Levels 850 750

$950,000,000 $831M 739

650

$850,000,000 669

$750,000,000 $664M

$710M

550

$529M

558

468

474 512

$437M

450

457

$542M $550,000,000

$450M

$450,000,000

343 $472M

350 341

250

$650,000,000

$591M

$455M 368

$350M

377

$350,000,000 $250,000,000

2008

2009

2010

Listings

79 Windermere

2011

2012

2013

Volume

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Poly. (Listings)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months - Inventory Levels 800

746

750

$598M

739

$594M

$570M

669

700

$600M

$610,000,000 $583M

$590,000,000 $561M $549M

650 $527M

600

500 450 400 350 300

512 468

457

$450M

341 $438M

$550,000,000

$510,000,000

474

$490,000,000

414 $452M

$542M

$530,000,000

558

550

$570,000,000

368

343

377

$470,000,000 $450,000,000

$458M

$430,000,000 Dec-17 Jan-18

Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Units

80 Windermere

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Median Inventory Levels by Market Segment 225

200

200

189

175

154

149

150 125

109 89

100 75 50 25

51

90

67

59

61.5

73

79.5

71

103.5

99.5

88

59

60

19.5 10

24.5 8

5 5

0 2013

$0-$250k $1M-$2M $5M +

81 Windermere

2014

4 5

21.5 10.5 3 5

2015

$250k-$500k $2M-$3M Poly. ($250k-$500k)

95

30.5

62.5

31

2016

16

28

31.5

14 10.5 1.5

10 12 4.5

$500k-$750k $3M-$4M

99

83

62

57.5

44.5

40

103

2017

$750k-$1M $4M-$5M

14 4

11

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Data Median Annual Months of Inventory & Sale to List % 22

20.7

20

96.9%

96.2%

18

96.7%

97.1%

97.3%

96.9%

96.9%

97.3%

97.2%

96.7%

16 14

93.6%

13.2

12

93.3%

90.4%

10

11.3

92.9%

6.1

6

85.5%

4

94.3%

95.4%

6.7

7.0

7.2

98% 96%

92% 90% 88%

5.9

5.1

100%

94%

95.2%

The variance between original list to sale % vs. current list to sale % may be an indication of 1) a more honed pricing strategy or 2) market conditions. Supply & demand vs. time-on-market play an interchanged role in this metric.

8.7

8

96.3% 94.6%

95.1%

97.6%

4.5

86% 84%

2

82%

0

80%

2008

2009

2010

2011

Months of Inventory

82 Windermere

2012

2013

2014

Sale to Original Price %

2015

2016

2017

Q1 2018

Sale to List Price %

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Transaction Performance by Product Type 100

91

90 80

88

83 76

74

70

84 75

73

70

63

60

51

48

50

51

40 30 20 10 0

24 13

14 8

8

7 1

Dec-17 Jan-18

4

Feb-18

21 12

4

Mar-18

Single Family Home

83 Windermere

21

19 4

4

1

Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Townhouse

12 1

Jul-18

4

0

Aug-18 Sep-18

Condo

18

14 1

Oct-18

18

0

1

Nov-18 Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Volume Performance by Product Type $70M

$70,000,000

$64M $57M

$60,000,000 $52M

$60M

$57M

$50M

$50,000,000

$46M

$44M $39M

$40,000,000

$36M

$37M

$33M

$30,000,000 $20,000,000 $10,000,000 $0

$3M 2M Jun-17

$2M 240K Jul-17

$2M 769K

$3M 775K

Aug-17 Sep-17

Single Family Home

84 Windermere

$6M 768K Oct-17

$5M 816K

$5M 205K

Nov-17 Dec-17

Townhouse

$3M 200K Jan-18

$5M

$3M 801K

K Feb-18

Mar-18

Condo

$3M

$4M

195K

$4M K

Apr-18 May-18

198K Jun-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Transaction Performance by Month 110

108

108 105 100

100

85 86 76

80 70

75

50

99

101

105

102

95 90

88 85

84

62

65

85

86

90

84 81

80

77

78 78

77

73

72

70

60

102

96 98

96

90

107 105

69

67

69

67

69 66

62

56 47

40 30

January

February

March

2015

85 Windermere

April

May

June

2016

July

August

2017

September

October

November December

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Volume Performance by Month $80,000,000

$76M $70M

$70,000,000

$67M

$65M

$63M$59M$63M $60M

$60,000,000

$55M

$50,000,000

$47M $45M

$46M

$38M $39M $39M $38M

$41M

$40,000,000

$57M $53M $50M

$48M

$41M

$45M

$49M

$47M

$48M $43M $43M

$39M $38M

$57M

$55M

$54M

$47M

$42M $39M

$40M$42M $38M

$37M

$46M

$39M $38M $37M

$38M

$33M

$30,000,000

$26M $20M

$20,000,000 $10,000,000 January

February

March

2015

86 Windermere

April

May

June

2016

July

August

2017

September October November December

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


WINTER PARK MARKET PERFORMANCE CURRENT AND HISTORIC SALES & INVENTORY SUMMARY *CONTAINS BOTH ORANGE & SEMINOLE COUNTY DEFINED WINTER PARK TERRITORY

RETURN TO TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Winter Park - Median Home Value Annual Growth Trajectory 30.0%

23.9%

22.0%

14.3%

11.4%

14.0%

9.7%

6.6%

2014

2015

10.5%

7.7%

6.0% -2.0%

2008

2009

2010

-10.0% -18.0%

-17.0%

-26.0% -34.0%

2011 -2.0%

2012

2013

2016

2017

2018

-20.5% -26.1%

-42.0% End-of-Year Value Growth

88 Winter Park

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Median Home Value and CDOM 190 170 150 130

$284,675

171 154

$260,000 $239,250

137

$225,000

110 90

83

70

69

$196,250

$200,000 $180,000

$178,875

65

83 74

$144,375

$132,242

$129,563

39

40

2009

2010

2011

Median CDOM

89 Winter Park

2012

2013

75

64

46 36

10 2008

$220,000

86

$166,369

30

$240,000

$209,250

107

50

$280,000

$264,375

143

139

$300,000

2014

Average CDOM

2015

33

25

2016

2017

$160,000 63

$140,000 27

$120,000 $100,000

2018

Median Value

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 SUMMARY CDOM & Days to Sell by Market Segment 15 16

$0-$249k:

38 25

$250k-$499k:

54

37

17

$500k-$749k:

45 65 72

42 58

$750k-$999k:

58

$1M-$1.999M: 22 22

$2M-$2.999M: 0

$4M-$4.999M:

0 0

$5M+:

0 0 0 0

0

81 80

118

149

159

NOTE: Luxury market sales account for only +/-2.0% of total market sales.

53 35 35

Days on market statistics account ONLY for those properties that have sold and not current time on market of all existing excess inventory.

49 49

20

40

Median Days to Sell

90 Winter Park

68

53

0

$3M-$3.999M:

126

60

80

Average Days to Sell

100

120 Median CDOM

140

160

180

Average CDOM

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Sales Transaction & Volume Performance by Year 1,600

$740M 1,409

1,400

1,316

1,361

1,231

1,200

1,390

$625M

$624M 1,315

1,052 946

1,000 800

$540M $540M

949 $455M

713

$477M

$440M

$398M

600

$240M

$278M $216M

200

$340M

537

400

2008

$199M 2009

$241M

$241M $140M

2010

2011

2012

Transactions

91 Winter Park

$640M

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE TRANSACTION Performance by Year (10 Year History) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200

114

215

222

229

282

2010

2011

2012

267

324

306

282

303

281

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

0 2008

2009 Q1

92 Winter Park

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 - Q4 Total

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE VOLUME Performance by Year (10 Year History) $600M $500M $400M $300M $200M $100M

$36M

$56M

$56M

$57M

$80M

$89M

$107M

$112M

$115M

$147M

$124M

2017

2018

$M 2008

2009 Q1

93 Winter Park

2010 Q2

2011

2012 Q3

2013 Q4

2014

2015

2016

Q1 - Q4 Total

Poly. (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Sales Transaction & Volume Performance 140 130

133

121

$64M

100

70

$70,000,000

$62M

$52M

$55,000,000

$51M

$50,000,000

88 $47M

85

$41M $46M

$65,000,000 $60,000,000

108

$44M

80

118

$56M

$49M 91

123

$59M

110

110 109

$75,000,000

$70M

126

120

90

133

$45M

$45,000,000 $40,000,000

79

$35,000,000

60

$30,000,000

50

$25,000,000 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Transactions

94 Winter Park

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison

Transaction Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

420 320

$250,000-$499,999: 99 102

$500,000-$749,999: 81 59 65

$750,000-$999,999:

$5M+ 0.09%

$3 million-$3.999 million:

3 5 5 10

$4 million-$4.999 million:

2 1 3 2

$5 million and up:

1 2 4 1

0

$3-$4M 0.90%

92 90

$2-$3M 1.52%

120 $1-$2M 9.49% $750k-$1M 8.06%

106

$500-$750k 7.25%

7 12 15 17

$2 million-$2.999 million:

$0-$250k 37.60%

2018 Transaction Percentages 100

200

2015

95 Winter Park

435

$4-$5M 0.18%

95 90 78

$1 million-$1.999 million:

373 390

834

709

623

300

400

2016

500

600

2017

$250-$500k 34.91%

700

800

900

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison

Volume Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

93M

116M 102M 113M 107M

$250,000-$499,999: 60M 62M

$500,000-$749,999:

50M 50M 55M

$750,000-$999,999:

213M

144M

$4-$5M $5M+ 2.29% 1.78%

$3-$4M 2.83%

74M

122M 125M 130M

15M

$2 million-$2.999 million: $3 million-$3.999 million:

7M 11M

$4 million-$4.999 million:

8M 5M 13M 8M 7M 11M 7M

$5 million and up: $-

17M

28M

$250-$500k 36.14%

35M

$750k$1M 9.82%

2018 Volume Percentages

30M

2015

96 Winter Park

$1-$2M 20.37%

36M 41M

$50,000,000

$2-$3M 7.29%

$0-$250k 13.55%

82M 77M 103M

$1 million-$1.999 million:

128M

$100,000,000

2016

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

2017

$500-$750k 5.92%

$250,000,000

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Annual Inventory Levels 1,050 950 850

$550,000,000 $498M

$500,000,000 841

930

$450,000,000 718

750

$400,000,000

$393M

650

539

$337M

550

411

$272M

450

$199M 2008

2009

2010

Listings

97 Winter Park

2011

2012

$301M

$292M

$312M

$225M

407 414

Volume

2014

2015

2016

$250,000,000 $200,000,000

376 311

2013

$350,000,000 $300,000,000

422 433

350 250

$280M

$313M

2017

$150,000,000 2018

Poly. (Listings)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months - Inventory Levels $350M

475

449

455 435

435

444

415

424 407

$331M

$297M

335

$288M

315

323

311

325

$315,000,000

$318M

$301M

355 $303M

$312M

$299M 346 333

$290M

324

$285,000,000 $275,000,000

Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Units

98 Winter Park

$305,000,000 $295,000,000

295 Dec-17 Jan-18

$335,000,000 $325,000,000

$316M

375

275

458

$345,000,000

$337M

395

295

$355,000,000

$350M

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Median Inventory Levels by Market Segment 208

191

200

176

150 114

100

95

94

59 46

50

32

42

3733 10

0 2013

14 3 0 3

$0-$250k $1M-$2M $5M +

99 Winter Park

2014

64

2015

$250k-$500k $2M-$3M Poly. ($0-$250k)

77

74

54 54

13

3 2 5

103 72

49

44

120

108 106

8

2 4

66

63

64 55 58

49

13 10

2016

20 9

2 4

$500k-$750k $3M-$4M Poly. ($250k-$500k)

2017

15 3 2

$750k-$1M $4M-$5M

6

2 2

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Data Median Annual Months of Inventory & Sale to List % 22 20 18

21.0 94.1%

94.7%

95.2%

95.0%

95.8%

96.8%

92.6%

14.3

14

88.9%

12

86.2%

86.9%

10

96.7%

96.9%

97.5%

95.9% 94.4%

16

97.2%

89.3%

7.6 5.4

6

95.2%

95.7%

4

100% 95%

95.1%

90% The variance between original list to sale % vs. current list to sale % may be an indication of 1) a more honed pricing strategy or 2) market conditions. Supply & demand vs. time-on-market play an interchanged role in this metric.

10.0

8

94.0%

97.1%

4.1

3.8

3.9

3.5

85% 80% 3.5

3.3

75%

2 0

2008

2009

2010

2011

Months of Inventory

100 Winter Park

2012

2013

2014

Sale to Original Price %

2015

2016

2017

Q2 2018

70%

Sale to List Price %

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Transaction Performance by Product Type 120 105 98

96

100

96

91 84

82

80

80

78 62

60

70

60 52

40 20

20 5

0

2

6

20

17 14

10

25

22

10

1

0

2

Dec-17 Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

3

1

0

21 13

16

11 2

Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Single Family Home

101 Winter Park

6

24

22

Townhouse

7

1

Jul-18

7

1

23

20 7

7

0

0

Aug-18 Sep-18

Oct-18

Condo

10 1

4

1

Nov-18 Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Volume Performance by Product Type $64M $60,000,000

$57M $52M

$50,000,000 $48M

$51M

$49M

$42M

$44M

$38M

$40,000,000

$35M

$34M

$32M

$32M

$30,000,000 $13M $20,000,000

$7M

$5M

$2M $10,000,000 $0

$6M K Jun-17

$2M $6M

$2M

330K

180K

Jul-17

Aug-17

$3M K Sep-17

$1M $5M 276K Oct-17

Single Family Home

102 Winter Park

$5M

$2M $2M $1M $5M $5M 185K 190K

Nov-17

Dec-17

Townhouse

$2M

$4M $3M

K

K

Jan-18

Feb-18

Condo

$8M

$3M 179K Mar-18

$3M $2M $1M $3M 190K

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Transaction Performance by Month 156

150

148

130 132

130 116 113

151

150 145

129

133

133

132

133 127

126 122 124

124

121

114

110

110

132 124123 112

121 113

119

118

103 97

96

92

91

90

114 109

109108

84 76 79 79

85

88

85

76

73

70 50 30

January

February

March

2015

103 Winter Park

April

May

2016

June

July

August

2017

September

October

November December

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Volume Performance by Month $71M

$70,000,000

$69M

$70M $64M

$62M $62M $61M

$59M

$60,000,000 $54M $52M

$50,000,000

$46M $46M

$40,000,000 $30,000,000

$38M

$56M

$56M

$45M

$47M

$49M $46M

$44M

$45M

$42M

$42M

$39M

$34M $34M $34M

$56M

$49M $47M

$47M $40M

$56M $54M

$52M

$51M

$41M

$61M

$36M

$34M

$47M $42M

$40M $32M

$34M

$31M $28M $23M

$20,000,000 $10,000,000 January

February

March

2015

104 Winter Park

April

May

2016

June

July

August

September October November December

2017

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


THE REPORT

WINTER GARDEN MARKET PERFORMANCE CURRENT AND HISTORIC SALES & INVENTORY SUMMARY

RETURN TO TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Winter Garden - Median Home Value Annual Growth Trajectory 33.2%

34.0% 26.0%

18.0%

18.0% 10.0%

7.1%

5.4%

5.9%

9.2% 3.9%

2.0% -6.0%

2008

2009

-8.1%

-14.0% -22.0% -30.0%

2010

2011 -4.5%

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

-17.1% -28.7%

106 Winter Garden

End-of-Year Value Growth

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Median Home Value and CDOM 160

$338,250

144

$309,672

140

$298,000

$300,000

$281,319

120

111

$253,250

100

$262,625

95

97

102

80

79

$165,946

$167,100 $158,513

76

39

41

76

47

54 44

$150,000 29

25

20

20 2008

2009

2010

2011

Median CDOM

107 Winter Garden

2012

2013

$200,000

64 46

28

75

59

60

40

$250,000

$222,500

$180,550

60

$350,000

2014

Average CDOM

2015

2016

2017

$100,000

2018

Median Value

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 SUMMARY CDOM & Days to Sell by Market Segment 10

$0-$249k:

23

11 20 21

$250k-$499k:

27 50 53

36

$500k-$749k:

89

36

92

31

$750k-$999k:

109

31

144

45

$1M-$1.999M: $2M-$2.999M:

0 0 0 0

$3M-$3.999M:

0 0 0 0

$4M-$4.999M:

0 0 0 0

$5M+:

0 0 0 0

121 122

45

NOTE: Luxury market sales account for only +/-2.0% of total market sales. Days on market statistics account ONLY for those properties that have sold and not current time on market of all existing excess inventory. *1 transaction

0

20

40

Median Days to Sell

108 Winter Garden

60

80

Average Days to Sell

100

120

Median CDOM

140

160

Average CDOM

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Sales Transaction & Volume Performance by Year 2,100 1,857

1,900

1,958 $729M

1,700

1,558

1,500

$500M

1,300 1,029

1,100 900

786

868

817

805

913

300

$489M

$400M

$413M $300M

700 500

$700M $600M

$623M

1,403

$800M

$276M

454

$200M

$219M $121M 2008

$150M 2009

$157M 2010

$149M 2011

$156M 2012

Transactions

109 Winter Garden

$100M 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE TRANSACTION Performance by Year (10 Year History) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200

120

239

181

181

218

233

273

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

373

407

2015

2016

444

465

0 2008

Q1

110 Winter Garden

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 - Q4 Total

2017

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE VOLUME Performance by Year (10 Year History) $450M $400M $350M $300M $250M

$183M $160M

$200M $150M

$116M

$100M $50M

$29M

$47M

$33M

$35M

2010

2011

$46M

$58M

$74M

2013

2014

$128M

$M 2008

2009 Q1

111 Winter Garden

Q2

2012 Q3

Q4

2015 Q1 - Q4 Total

2016

2017

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Sales Transaction & Volume Performance 200

192 186

190

180

180 170 160 150 140

$61M

$59M

168

$80,000,000

193

$66M

$70,000,000

$66M

$70M

$68M $61M

$77M

$61M 174

170

$59M

$63M 161

162

156

$50,000,000

148

$37M $40M

$40,000,000

130 120

$30,000,000

121

110 100

$60,000,000

109

$20,000,000

Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Transactions

112 Winter Garden

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Transaction Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

327

387

479

547

769

$250,000-$499,999: 62 80

$500,000-$749,999:

109

964

1263

204

17 29 36 43

$750,000-$999,999: $1 million-$1.999 million:

8 5 13 26

$2 million-$2.999 million:

0 1

$0-$250k 19.38%

1 2 0 0 0 0

$3 million-$3.999 million: $4 million-$4.999 million:

0 0 0 0

$5 million and up:

0 0 0 0

0

2018 Transaction Percentages 200

400

2015

113 Winter Garden

1356 $1-$2M 1.07%

600

2016

800

1,000

2017

1,200

$750k-$1M 1.93%

$500-$750k 8.24%

$250-$500k 69.27%

1,400

1,600

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Volume Performance by Market Segment 93M 83M 72M 60M

$0-$249,999:

260M

$250,000-$499,999: 36M 47M

$500,000-$749,999:

73M

327M

10M 15M

$1 million-$1.999 million:

6M

$2 million-$2.999 million:

K 2M 3M 4M

$3 million-$3.999 million:

K K K

$4 million-$4.999 million:

K K K

$5 million and up:

K K K

$-

$750k-$1M 4.60%

$0-$250k 9.76%

$500-$750k 13.25%

33M

2018 Volume Percentages $75,000,000

2015

114 Winter Garden

477M

$1-$2M 3.88%

$2-$3M 0.62%

118M

15M 25M 31M 37M

$750,000-$999,999:

430M

$150,000,000

$225,000,000

2016

$300,000,000

$375,000,000

2017

$250-$500k 67.88%

$450,000,000

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Annual Inventory Levels 750

$275,000,000

708

700

$250,000,000

650

610

$225,000,000

600 550 500

$181M $192M

450

$164M

476

400 $126M

250

$76M $80M

2008

2009

2010

Listings

115 Winter Garden

403

330

300 200

$169M

$175,000,000

$140M

$160M

350

$186M $200,000,000

2011

$150,000,000 411

423

$91M

386 $125,000,000 $100,000,000

333 293

$75,000,000

242 2012

$50,000,000 2013

Volume

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Poly. (Listings)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months - Inventory Levels 420

$200,000,000

$197M $189M

400

$188M

$195,000,000

$188M 399

378

380 366

$180M

360 $169M

$176M

$181M

372 $179M

394

390

386 377

$174M 358

$186M $190,000,000

$170M $170M

365

320 300

$180,000,000 $175,000,000 $170,000,000

340

$165,000,000

339

333

$185,000,000

$160,000,000

325

$155,000,000 $150,000,000

Dec-17 Jan-18

Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Units

116 Winter Garden

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Median Inventory Levels by Market Segment 350 305

300

293

274

250

232

197

200 150 133

115

102

110

100

68

50 0

31

22 9 136 1 1 0 1

2013

$0-$250k $1M-$2M $5M +

117 Winter Garden

48

49

6

7

15 1 0 0 0

2014

7

22 1 0 1 0

2015

$250k-$500k $2M-$3M Poly. ($0-$250k)

67

28

9 1 0 1 0

2016

40

56

$500k-$750k $3M-$4M Poly. ($250k-$500k)

14

15 18 1 0 1 0

2017

1 1 0 1

2018

$750k-$1M $4M-$5M

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Data Median Annual Months of Inventory & Sale to List % 20 18

18.3

98.6%

97.7%

98.4% 97.3%

16

97.5%

98.9%

95.2%

12

96.1% 93.9%

90.4%

10

9.6

8 6

8.0 5.3

86.6%

4

98.3%

98.1%

98.2%

95.4%

14

98.3%

96.7%

96.4%

98.7% 98.0%

2008

2009

2010

2011

Months of Inventory

118 Winter Garden

98.6%

3.4

4.1

2012

2013

2014

Sale to Original Price %

98% 96%

92%

The variance between original list to sale % vs. current list to sale % may be an indication of 1) a more honed pricing strategy or 2) market conditions. Supply & demand vs. time-on-market play an interchanged role in this metric.

4.2

100%

94%

90% 88% 86%

3.7

3.6

2.7

2 0

98.7%

2015

2016

2017

2.2

2018

84% 82% 80%

Sale to List Price %

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Transaction Performance by Product Type 180 160 140

139

136

132

156

147

146

166 135 121

120 100

118

115

90

87

80 60 40 20 0

27 16

6

15 1

7

0

Dec-17 Jan-18

39

31 6

0

Feb-18

5

0

Mar-18

30

10

15 0

9

0

Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Single Family Home

119 Winter Garden

30

27

Townhouse

29

22 6

5

0

40

Aug-18 Sep-18

Oct-18

0

Jul-18

10

31

23

Condo

0

23 40

30

Nov-18 Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Volume Performance by Product Type $80,000,000 $70M

$70,000,000 $60,000,000

$62M

$59M

$55M

$52M

$33M

$57M

$55M

$51M

$50,000,000 $40,000,000

$61M

$48M

$48M

$32M

$30,000,000 $20,000,000 $10,000,000 $0

$4M

$3M 905K

816K Dec-17

Jan-18

$7M 882K Feb-18

$8M 635K Mar-18

$10M 298K Apr-18

Single Family Home

120 Winter Garden

$8M

$8M 1M K May-18

$4M 1M Jun-18

Townhouse

$6M

870K Jul-18

$7M 1M

637K Aug-18

Condo

Sep-18

$6M 664K Oct-18

$8M 708K Nov-18

$6M 653K Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Transaction Performance by Month 210

203

190

186 180 174

170

168

170

159 146

138

135 130

109

110

103

132

117

105

120 112

111

148

147 131 127

127

162 161

146

140

137

127 121

158

156

148

130

166

163

160

150

128 121 116

117

104

100

86

90 70

196 193

192

68

50 30

January

February

March

2015

121 Winter Garden

April

May

June

2016

July

August

2017

September

October

November December

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Volume Performance by Month $80,000,000

$77M $72M

$70,000,000

$68M $61M

$66M

$61M

$63M

$61M $59M

$59M

$57M $52M

$50,000,000

$49M

$48M

$47M

$40,000,000

$40M $40M $34M

$37M $33M

$31M $29M

$39M

$52M

$53M $45M

$44M

$20,000,000

$66M

$65M

$61M

$60,000,000

$30,000,000

$70M

$41M

$41M $40M

$38M

$35M

$47M

$46M

$40M

$39M $38M

$40M $37M

$32M

$30M

$30M

$25M $17M

$10,000,000 January

February

March

2015

122 Winter Garden

April

May

June

2016

July

August

2017

September October November December

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


THE REPORT

APOPKA MARKET PERFORMANCE CURRENT AND HISTORIC SALES & INVENTORY SUMMARY

RETURN TO TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Apopka- Median Home Value Annual Growth Trajectory 24.7%

26.0% 18.0%

10.4%

10.0% 0.2%

2.0% -6.0%

2008

2009

2010

2011

12.2%

10.2% 8.6%

8.5%

2.2% 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

-14.0% -22.0%

-14.7%

-18.1%

-30.0%

124 Apopka

-28.3%

End-of-Year Value Growth

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Median Home Value and CDOM 175

$244,950

164

$240,000

155 135

$225,750

$220,000

129 122

121

$201,250

109

115 $194,995

92

95

80

75

75

$152,275

43

35 $119,300

$119,500

$122,125

15 2008

2009

2010

2011

Median CDOM

125 Apopka

$160,000 74

$139,900

$180,000

$168,150

60

55

$200,000

$185,250

2012

70

60

30

2013

50 61

45

38

22

20

$140,000

48

20

$120,000 $100,000

2014

Average CDOM

2015

2016

2017

2018

Median Value

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 SUMMARY CDOM & Days to Sell by Market Segment 12

$0-$249k: $250k-$499k:

29 12 31 27

58 66 29 111

$500k-$749k:

121 118

183

236 236 236 236

$750k-$999k: $1M-$1.999M: $2M-$2.999M:

0 0 0 0

$3M-$3.999M:

0 0 0 0

$4M-$4.999M:

0 0 0 0

$5M+:

0 0 0 0

0

50 50 50 50

*4 transactions

*1 transaction

50 Median Days to Sell

126 Apopka

*2 transactions

100 Average Days to Sell

150

200

Median CDOM

250

Average CDOM

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Sales Transaction & Volume Performance by Year 1,900

1,312

1,300

1,342

$351M

300

$300M $250M $200M

$217M

660 $142M

$149M

$166M

$400M $350M

$364M

$268M

900

$137M

$438M

$313M

930

$500M $450M

1,380

1,109

1,100

500

1,548

1,508

1,500

700

1,692

1,647

1,700

1,746

$181M

$150M $100M $50M

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Transactions

127 Apopka

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE TRANSACTION Performance by Year (10 Year History) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200

183

277

259

319

357

333

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

409

367

389

383

2014

2015

2016

2017

432

0 2008

Q1

128 Apopka

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 - Q4 Total

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE VOLUME Performance by Year (10 Year History) $350M $300M $250M $200M $150M $100M $50M

$34M

$39M

$33M

$39M

$51M

$56M

2012

2013

$73M

$72M

$84M

$95M

$110M

$M 2008

2009 Q1

129 Apopka

2010 Q2

2011

Q3

Q4

2014

2015 Q1 - Q4 Total

2016

2017

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Sales Transaction & Volume Performance 180

$44M

170 $39M

160 150

$40M

148

157

$35M

172

162

$45,000,000

$43M $41M

163 169

$38M

$40M 157

$28M

$35,000,000

129

120 110

146 $35M

140

130

90

$34M

146

140 $35M

100

$40,000,000

$30,000,000

$25,000,000

112 $22M 93 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Transactions

130 Apopka

$20,000,000 Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Transaction Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999: 366

$250,000-$499,999:

460 609

$750k-$1M 0.11%

804

$1-$2M 0.06%

1,268

$500-$750k 0.92%

9 6 10 16 4 3 3 2

$500,000-$749,999: $750,000-$999,999: $1 million-$1.999 million:

0 1 1 1

$2 million-$2.999 million:

0 0 0 0

$3 million-$3.999 million:

0 0 0 0

$4 million-$4.999 million:

0 0 0 0

$5 million and up:

0 0 0 0

0

$0-$250k 52.86% $250-$500k 46.05%

2018 Transaction Percentages 200

400

2015

131 Apopka

1,222

923 923

600

2016

800

1,000

2017

1,200

1,400

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Volume Performance by Market Segment 193M 202M

$0-$249,999: 112M

$250,000-$499,999:

190M

$750k-$1M 0% $500-$750k 2%

256M

3M 2M 3M 2M

$750,000-$999,999:

K 1M 2M 1M

$2 million-$2.999 million:

K K K K

$3 million-$3.999 million:

K K K K

$4 million-$4.999 million:

K K K K

$5 million and up:

K K K K

$-

$0-$250k 35%

2018 Volume Percentages $50,000,000

2015

132 Apopka

142M

$1-$2M 0%

5M 3M 6M 9M

$500,000-$749,999:

$1 million-$1.999 million:

161M 157M

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

2016

$200,000,000

2017

$250-$500k 63%

$250,000,000

$300,000,000

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Annual Inventory Levels 1,100 1,000 900

$250,000,000

1,013 $229M

899

959

$230,000,000 $210,000,000 $190,000,000

800

712

700

$172M

600

$150,000,000 $151M

493

500 $114M

400

449

$108M

508

$114M 438

$103M 291

2008

2009

2010

Listings

133 Apopka

2011

2012

2013

Volume

2014

2015

2016

$130,000,000 $110,000,000

$96M $79M

$110M

$88M

300 200

$170,000,000

$90,000,000 319

369

$70,000,000 $50,000,000

2017

2018

Poly. (Listings)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months Inventory Levels 430

$130,000,000

390 $109M

370 350

290

$96M

$118M

$90M 319 302

$87M $81M

$85M

$114M

$86M

$120,000,000 $110,000,000

369 $100,000,000

$87M

$90,000,000 $80,000,000

274

275

276 $70,000,000

Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Units

134 Apopka

407

301 267

Dec-17 Jan-18

$121M

$122M

344

270 250

$110M

364

330 310

408

401

410

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Median Inventory Levels by Market Segment 400

359

372

350

309

300 250 204

200 150 100

186

185 121

80

50 0

166

153

138

148

10

6 5

62 1 2 0 0

2013 $0-$250k $1M-$2M $5M +

135 Apopka

6

30 0 0 0

2014

6

7 2 0 0 0 0

2015 $250k-$500k $2M-$3M Poly. ($0-$250k)

4

13

10 0 0 0

2016

5 2 0 0 0 0

2017

$500k-$750k $3M-$4M Poly. ($250k-$500k)

9

6 4 0 0 0 0

2018 $750k-$1M $4M-$5M

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Data Median Annual Months of Inventory & Sale to List % 20

19.9 97.4%

18 16

97.6%

96.9%

96.7%

97.9%

98.5%

94.4%

97.2%

14 12

11.1

10.7

10 8

88.0%

6

88.1%

95.9%

98.6%

98.6%

98.6%

7.3 4.9

4

4.2

4.1

96.1%

97.4%

97.4%

97.4%

2008

2009

2010

2011

Months of Inventory

136 Apopka

2012

2013

2014

Sale to Original Price %

96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86%

3.3

2.6

2.7

2.1

2 0

100% 98%

The variance between original list to sale % vs. current list to sale % may be an indication of 1) a more honed pricing strategy or 2) market conditions. Supply & demand vs. time-on-market play an interchanged role in this metric.

90.4% 90.2%

98.0%

98.3%

2015

2016

2017

Q2 2018

84% 82% 80%

Sale to List Price %

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Transaction Performance by Product Type 142

140

150

142

141

138 126

119

124

120

117

115

109

100 83

80 60 40 20 0

13

8

9

14

12

41

442

31

Dec-17 Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

0

5

11

15 41

31

Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Jul-18

1

Single Family Home

137 Apopka

5

12 0

Townhouse

9

54

12

6

0

Aug-18 Sep-18

Condo

68

2

Oct-18

64

13 0

5

0

Nov-18 Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Volume Performance by Product Type $40,000,000 $35,000,000

$39M

$37M $31M

$38M

$36M

$35M

$32M

$31M

$30,000,000

$30M

$29M

$25,000,000 $20M

$20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000

2M

$5,000,000

945K 240K

$0

Dec-17

2M 490K Jan-18

2M 625K

709K Mar-18

Apr-18

Single Family Home

138 Apopka

2M

3M

473K Feb-18

2M K May-18

454K Jun-18

Townhouse

3M

2M

423K Jul-18

778K

Aug-18

Condo

1M 2M 850K Sep-18

1M

3M

1M 273K Oct-18

540K K

Nov-18

774K K

Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Transaction Performance by Month 170

170

162

157

150

146

124

151

163

147

140

157159 144

157 146

150

151 148146

146

123 113 107 112

115

123 115

116

113

129

119

121

107

100 94

90

143

148

159 153

152

169

165

131

130 110

150

172

171

169

93 87

70 50 30

January

February

March

2015

139 Apopka

April

May

June

2016

July

August

2017

September

October

November December

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Volume Performance by Month $45,000,000

$44M

$40,000,000

$40M

$39M

$43M

$40M $36M $36M $33M

$35M

$35,000,000

$33M

$41M

$40M $37M

$37M $35M

$38M

$35M

$34M

$33M $32M

$31M $31M

$30,000,000

$28M $24M

$25,000,000 $22M

$20,000,000

$28M

$26M

$27M

$29M

$28M $26M

$35M $35M $35M

$29M $27M

$27M

$25M

$22M $23M

$25M

$25M

$25M $22M $22M

$18M $16M

$16M

$15,000,000 $10,000,000 January

February

March

2015

140 Apopka

April

May

2016

June

July

August

September October November December

2017

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


THE REPORT

OCOEE MARKET PERFORMANCE CURRENT AND HISTORIC SALES & INVENTORY SUMMARY

RETURN TO TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Ocoee - Median Home Value Annual Growth Trajectory 23.7%

26.0% 18.0%

9.8%

10.0%

11.8%

12.4% 8.1%

6.3%

2.0% -6.0%

2008

2009

2011

-5.9%

-14.0% -22.0%

2010

2012 -0.8%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

-12.1% -15.8%

-30.0%

142 Ocoee

-27.3%

End-of-Year Value Growth

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Median Home Value and CDOM 180

$264,923

164

160 140

$245,000

$250,000

129

$226,225

120 100

$275,000

$225,000 86

114

98

$217,875

69

80

64

60

47

58

67

55 $177,500

40

23

$154,775

20 0 2008

2009

57

2010

36

38

32

26

$136,000

$134,950

2011

2012

Median CDOM

143 Ocoee

67

$166,950

$164,495

$200,000

$194,950

2013

41

43

$150,000 18 17

2014

Average CDOM

2015

$175,000

2016

2017

$125,000

2018

Median Value

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 SUMMARY CDOM & Days to Sell by Market Segment 16

$0-$249k:

29 24

$250k-$499k:

16 31

46 25 53

30

$500k-$749k:

$1M-$1.999M: $2M-$2.999M:

0 0 0 0

$3M-$3.999M:

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

$4M-$4.999M: $5M+: 0

*2 transactions *4 transactions

*1 transaction

20

40

Median Days to Sell

144 Ocoee

180

36

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

$750k-$999k:

177

60

80

100

Average Days to Sell

120

140

Median CDOM

160

180

200

Average CDOM

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Sales Transaction & Volume Performance by Year 850 748

732

750

672 624

650

662 624

$220M

794

$200M $180M

625 $169M

550

724

$210M

$174M

$160M

490

$140M

$147M

450 350 250 150

$120M

359

$116M $98M

$83M

$96M

$100M

$100M

$104M

$80M

$83M

$60M 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Transactions

145 Ocoee

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE TRANSACTION Performance by Year (10 Year History) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100

95

138

154

2010

169

179

131

171

166

165

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

186

181

0 2008

2009 Q1

146 Ocoee

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 - Q4 Total

2017

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE VOLUME Performance by Year (10 Year History) $180M $160M $140M $120M $100M $80M $60M $40M

$21M

$22M

$24M

$24M

$28M

$23M

$32M

$36M

$48M

$37M

$47M

2016

2017

$20M $M 2008

2009 Q1

147 Ocoee

2010 Q2

2011

2012 Q3

2013 Q4

2014

2015 Q1 - Q4 Total

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Sales Transaction & Volume Performance 90

87

85 80 75 70

$21M

78 75 71 68

$19M

$20M

65

$18M

$25,000,000 $23M $23,000,000

$23M

82

$21,000,000 $19M

75

$19,000,000

$16M

$18M

69

$17,000,000

$16M

60 54

55 50

$13M

60

58

$13M

$13,000,000

$10M

52

45 40

40 Dec-17 Jan-18

$11,000,000 $9,000,000

Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Transactions

148 Ocoee

$15,000,000

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Transaction Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

342 310

$500,000-$749,999:

0 3 6 4

$750,000-$999,999:

0 0 0 0

$1 million-$1.999 million:

1 0 0 0

$2 million-$2.999 million:

0 0 0 0

$3 million-$3.999 million:

0 0 0 0

$4 million-$4.999 million:

0 0 0 0

$5 million and up:

0 0 0 0

0

448

$500-$750k 0.50%

$0-$250k 43.07%

2018 Transaction Percentages 100

2015

149 Ocoee

266

190

$250,000-$499,999:

540

479

408

200

300

2016

400

2017

$250-$500k 56.42%

500

600

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Volume Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

65M 58M

$250,000-$499,999: $500,000-$749,999:

K

$750,000-$999,999:

K K K K

$1 million-$1.999 million:

K K K

$2 million-$2.999 million:

K K K K

$3 million-$3.999 million:

K K K K

$4 million-$4.999 million:

K K K K

$5 million and up:

K K K K

$-

84M

88M

83M

96M

142M $500-$750k 0.53%

2M 3M 2M

2M $0-$250k 33.69%

2018 Volume Percentages $30,000,000

2015

150 Ocoee

75M

$60,000,000

2016

$90,000,000

$250-$500k 65.77%

$120,000,000

2017

$150,000,000

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Annual Inventory Levels 500

$120,000,000

454

450

415

427 $100,000,000

400 $99M 350

$80,000,000

277

300

$74M

250

$60,000,000

214

$65M

192

200

$35M

$39M

$42M $40,000,000

$42M 187

100 50

$43M $34M

$44M

150

$46M

167 123

134

139

$20,000,000 $0

2008

2009

2010

Listings

151 Ocoee

2011

2012

2013

Volume

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Poly. (Listings)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months Inventory Levels 170

$55,000,000 157

150

138

134

125

130

139

136 121

131

126

139

126

114

90

$39M

$47M

$42M

$41M

$40M

70 50

$45,000,000

105

110

$39M $35M

$34M

$37M $36M

$50,000,000

$40,000,000

$39M $37M

$35,000,000

$31M $30,000,000

Dec-17 Jan-18

Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Units

152 Ocoee

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18

Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Median Inventory Levels by Market Segment 140

141 114

120

107

100

87 82

73

80 60

97

92 75 49

47

41

40 20 0

2 1

00.5 0 0 0 0

2013

$0-$250k $1M-$2M $5M +

153 Ocoee

3 1

00 0 0 0

2014

0 1 0 0 0 0

2015

$250k-$500k $2M-$3M Poly. ($0-$250k)

3.5 0

4

10 0 0 0

2016

$500k-$750k $3M-$4M Poly. ($250k-$500k)

0 1 0 0 0 0

2017

$750k-$1M $4M-$5M

2 0

0 0 0 0 0

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Data Median Annual Months of Inventory & Sale to List % 16

15.2 96.7%

14 12

98.0%

93.0%

98.6%

94.0%

98.7%

94.2%

98.4%

96.9%

9.4

10

5.4

6

4.3

86.2%

4

97.8%

98.4%

96.3%

98.5%

96.3%

98.3%

98.9%

99.0%

97.8%

98.0%

96.8%

3.5

3.6

98% 96%

92% 90% 88% 86%

3.4 2.6

2.5

2 0

100%

94%

The variance between original list to sale % vs. current list to sale % may be an indication of 1) a more honed pricing strategy or 2) market conditions. Supply & demand vs. time-on-market play an interchanged role in this metric.

7.9

8

99.2%

1.9

84% 82%

2008

2009

2010

2011

Months of Inventory

154 Ocoee

2012

2013

2014

Sale to Original Price %

2015

2016

2017

2018

80%

Sale to List Price %

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Transaction Performance by Product Type 70

67

65

66 60

59

60

62

52

47

50 40

51 39

36

30 20 10 0

7

9

6 10

10

Dec-17

Jan-18

22

0

Feb-18

6 3

5

0

0

Mar-18

Apr-18

2

8

5

5 0

10

May-18

Jun-18

Single Family Home

155 Ocoee

11

9

6

Townhouse

00

10

Aug-18

Sep-18

0 Jul-18

Condo

43

4 0

Oct-18

7 2

0

Nov-18

3

0

Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Volume Performance by Product Type $20,000,000

$20M

$19M

$18,000,000 $18M

$17M $16M

$16,000,000

$17M

$17M $14M

$14M

$14,000,000 $12M

$12,000,000

$11M $10M

$10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000

$1M

$2,000,000

122K

$0 Dec-17

$2M

$1M 115K Jan-18

$M 185K Feb-18

339K Mar-18

$1M 636K Apr-18

Single Family Home

156 Ocoee

1M 233K May-18

$2M 120K Jun-18

Townhouse

$2M $1M 590K Jul-18

K Aug-18

Condo

$1M 86K Sep-18

$1M 347K Oct-18

$1M 243K Nov-18

$1M 376K

Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Transaction Performance by Month 90

87

85 82

80

82

78

71

70

72 71

64

67 69

62

60

59 55

75

73

72 68

77

73

75

67

59

64

63

62

60 58

58 56

54

54

50

48

55

53

51 49

49

50

50

51

53

52

44

44 40

40 30

69

68

January

February

March

2015

157 Ocoee

April

May

June

2016

July

August

2017

September

October

November December

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Volume Performance by Month $23M

$23M

$23,000,000 $21M

$20M

$20,000,000

$20M

$20M $18M

$19M $18M

$18M

$16M

$17,000,000

$16M

$14,000,000

$13M $12M

$11,000,000

$13M $12M

$12M

$14M $14M

$14M $13M

$14M

$13M

$13M

$11M

$11M

$11M

$11M

$10M $9M

$9M

$8,000,000

$15M

$12M

$10M $10M

$10M

$16M

$16M

$15M

$14M

$15M

$17M

$15M

$16M $14M

$19M $19M

$7M

$5,000,000 January

February

March

2015

158 Ocoee

April

May

2016

June

July

August

September October November December

2017

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


LAKE NONA (32827 & 32832 ZIP CODES) MARKET PERFORMANCE CURRENT AND HISTORIC SALES & INVENTORY SUMMARY

RETURN TO TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Lake Nona - Median Home Value Annual Growth Trajectory 26.0% 14.3%

18.0%

19.9%

16.4% 9.0%

10.0%

7.3%

3.8%

2.0% -6.0%

2008

2009

-24.3%

-23.1%

2010 -4.9%

-0.6% 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 -2.5%

2016

2017

2018

-14.0% -22.0% -30.0%

End-of-Year Value Growth

160 Lake Nona

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Median Home Value and CDOM 160 140

$340,212

137

100

116

$287,088

108

104

$310,000

$290,750 $280,000

$290,000 $270,000

$246,600

$247,475

80 57

60

54

64

85 $205,648

$190,250 $179,982

37

82

58

63 40

36

2009

2010

2011

Median CDOM

161 Lake Nona

2012

2013

2014

Average CDOM

2015

$210,000 $190,000

36

20 2008

$230,000

83

74 56

$181,000

$250,000

98

78

40

$330,000

$317,000

114

120

$350,000

2016

2017

$170,000 24

$150,000

2018

Median Value

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 SUMMARY CDOM & Days to Sell by Market Segment 12 12

$0-$249k:

27

$250k-$499k:

36 37

51

28

$500k-$749k:

NOTE: Luxury market sales account for only +/-2.0% of total market sales. 60 61

24

77

65

$750k-$999k:

Days on market statistics account ONLY for those properties that have sold and not current time on market of all existing excess inventory.

70

95

121

134

196

$1M-$1.999M: $2M-$2.999M:

0 0 0 0

$3M-$3.999M:

0 0 0 0

$4M-$4.999M:

0 0 0 0

$5M+:

0 0 0 0

0

196 196 196

25

50

Median Days to Sell

162 Lake Nona

75

100

Average Days to Sell

125

150

Median CDOM

175

200

Average CDOM

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Sales Transaction & Volume Performance by Year 1,400

$475M

$475M

1,200 1,194

$385M

1,000 725

674 585

600

200

918

897

800

400

$525M

$325M $275M $225M $175M

$215M $169M

$125M

$124M $120M 2009

$133M 2010

$75M 2011

2012

Transactions

163 Lake Nona

987

$205M

296

2008

$375M

$310M

$292M

557

512

$104M

642

$425M

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE TRANSACTION Performance by Year (10 Year History) 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 257

400 300 200 100

145

128

131

2009

2010

2011

77

160

148

184

2013

2014

189

232

245

2015

2016

2017

0 2008

Q1

164 Lake Nona

Q2

2012 Q3

Q4

Q1 - Q4 Total

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE VOLUME Performance by Year (10 Year History) $400M $350M $300M $250M $200M $105M

$150M $100M $50M

$22M

$40M

$26M

$30M

$46M

$46M

$60M

$63M

$78M

$94M

$M 2008

2009 Q1

165 Lake Nona

2010

2011 Q2

2012

2013 Q3

2014 Q4

2015

2016

2017

2018

Q1 - Q4 Total

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Sales Transaction & Volume Performance 160

$65,000,000 $56M

140

$49M

100

40

$42M 126

$47M 113

$34M $28M $24M

80 60

126

144

$44M

$42M

120

$55,000,000

100

$37M $28M

104

105 90

$36M

81

77 64

$45,000,000

$41M

72

70

$35,000,000 $25,000,000 $15,000,000 $5,000,000

Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Transactions

166 Lake Nona

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Transaction Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

211 220

322

286

487

$250,000-$499,999: 60

$500,000-$749,999: 12 20

$750,000-$999,999:

12 10

$1 million-$1.999 million: $2 million-$2.999 million:

4 03 3

$3 million-$3.999 million:

0 2 1 0

$4 million-$4.999 million:

0 0 1 1

$5 million and up:

0 0 0 0

0

73

93

619

761 $3-$4M 0.00%

$1-$2M 2.03%

136

$750k-$1M 3.21%

32 38 $500-$750k 11.50%

$0-$250k 18.60%

27 24

2018 Transaction Percentages 100

200

2015

167 Lake Nona

527

300

2016

400

500

2017

600

$250-$500k 64.33%

700

800

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Volume Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

41M 45M

62M 54M 160M

$250,000-$499,999: 35M 42M

$500,000-$749,999: 10M 17M

$750,000-$999,999: $1 million-$1.999 million:

13M

$2 million-$2.999 million:

K

$3 million-$3.999 million:

K

$4 million-$4.999 million:

K K

$5 million and up:

K K K K

K

$-

54M

212M

265M $3-$4M 0.00%

$4-$5M 1.91%

85M

$0-$250k 9.94%

28M 32M

$2-$3M 0.00%

$1-$2M 8.54% $750k$1M 7.33%

16M 35M 36M

9M 7M 7M $500-$750k 17.84%

6M 4M

2018 Volume Percentages

$250-$500k 54.45%

4M 5M

$50,000,000

2015

168 Lake Nona

178M

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

2016

$200,000,000

2017

$250,000,000

$300,000,000

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Annual Inventory Levels 550

$240,000,000

$229M

500 450

$211M $205M

449 417

400

391

$176M

317

375 279 227

250

309

228

300

$115M 2008

2009

2010

Listings

169 Lake Nona

2011

2012

$160,000,000 $140,000,000

251

$126M

200

$180,000,000

$161M $166M

300

$200,000,000

$185M

$190M

350

150

$220,000,000

$120,000,000

$118M $100,000,000 2013

Volume

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Poly. (Listings)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months Inventory Levels $218M

350 340

333

330

$211M

$217M

$220,000,000 $211M

$204M

$210,000,000

333

320

308

310

$194M 305

300 285

290

$186M $185M

306 $188M

314

301 $185M

328

$205M

$200,000,000

325 317

300

$180,000,000

280 270 260 250

$190,000,000

$170,000,000 $161M

$170M $160,000,000

251 $150,000,000 Dec-17 Jan-18

Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Units

170 Lake Nona

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Median Inventory Levels by Market Segment 200

188 176

180 160

181

157

151

140 120 100

97

97

93

84

80

64

60

34

40 20

30

29 15

20 11 7

0

2 1 0

2013 $0-$250k $1M-$2M $5M +

171 Lake Nona

12

7

2014

19

39

27

2015 $250k-$500k $2M-$3M Poly. ($0-$250k)

42

29

30

21 4 4 2 0

2 1 1

47

22

25 8

4 4 2 0

2016

2017

$500k-$750k $3M-$4M Poly. ($250k-$500k)

46 19

24 11

1 2 0

2 2 1

2018 $750k-$1M $4M-$5M Poly. ($500k-$750k)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Data Median Annual Months of Inventory & Sale to List % 20

19.4

99.7%

99.5%

98.9% 98.6%

98.0%

18 16 14

94.3%

12 10

97.2%

96.8%

90.5%

9.9

95.2%

97.8%

98.1%

97.9% 95.9%

95.7%

96.3%

98.0% 96.8%

98.1%

98.6%

98.3% 98%

96%

97.1%

94%

The variance between original list to sale % vs. current list to sale % may be an indication of 1) a more honed pricing strategy or 2) market conditions. Supply & demand vs. time-on-market play an interchanged role in this metric.

9.2

8

6.5

6

4.6

3.9

5.9

4.8

4

100%

92% 90% 88% 4.0

86%

3.9 3.0

84%

2

82%

0

80%

2008

2009

2010

2011

Months of Inventory

172 Lake Nona

2012

2013

2014

Sale to Original Price %

2015

2016

2017

2018

Sale to List Price %

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Transaction Performance by Product Type 100

95

93

85

90 80

76

75

74

72

70 60

60

54

50

50

50

46

40 30

35 18

18

20 10

19

18

30

1

Dec-17

Jan-18

11

Feb-18

Mar-18

1

21

Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Single Family Home

173 Lake Nona

27

21

4

0

49

44

Townhouse

7

4

1

Jul-18

25

24

1

19 31

Aug-18 Sep-18

Condo

16 2

Oct-18

5

31

Nov-18 Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Volume Performance by Product Type $43M

$45,000,000 $40,000,000

$39M

$37M

$36M

$38M $32M

$35,000,000 $30,000,000

$28M

$27M

$25,000,000 $19M

$15,000,000

$5,000,000

$25M

$22M

$23M

$20,000,000

$10,000,000

$32M

$12M

$5M

$5M

$5M 175K

2M

300K

$0 Dec-17

$5M 791K

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

$5M

213K 320K

Apr-18

Single Family Home

174 Lake Nona

$9M

210K

May-18

$8M

401K

Jun-18

Townhouse

$7M

$7M $5M 1M

2M

Jul-18

$7M

673K

Aug-18

Condo

806K

Sep-18

508KK

Oct-18

K

Nov-18

$4M 667K 308K

Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Transaction Performance by Month 150

144

131

130

126

126

113 109

110

105

104 100

98

81 80 81

70

64

70

66

90

81

80 76

73

80

79 74

72 67 67

65

67

68

81 77

67

54

52

47 42

89 85

84

80 76

30

96

95

99

91

90

50

101

44

January

February

March

2015

175 Lake Nona

April

May

June

2016

July

August

2017

September

October

November December

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Volume Performance by Month $56M

$55,000,000

$52M $49M $47M

$45,000,000

$44M

$42M

$42M

$42M

$40M

$35,000,000 $28M $24M $20M

$25,000,000 $16M

$18M $13M

$25M

$26M

$27M

$34M

$31M $29M

$31M

$31M

$37M

$33M

$35M

$32M

$29M

$36M

$33M

$34M

$31M $31M $29M $28M

$26M $25M

$26M

$20M $21M

$21M

$17M

$41M

$25M

$22M $21M

$21M

$21M

$15,000,000

$5,000,000 January

February

March

2015

176 Lake Nona

April

May

2016

June

July

August

September October November December

2017

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


THE REPORT

COLLEGE PARK(32804 ZIP CODE) MARKET PERFORMANCE CURRENT AND HISTORIC SALES & INVENTORY SUMMARY

RETURN TO TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


College Park - Median Home Value Annual Growth Trajectory 26.0%

22.5% 14.6%

18.0% 6.6%

10.0%

6.1% 0.6%

2.0% -6.0% -14.0%

2008

2009

2010

2011

7.7%

8.0%

2017

2018

0.6% 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

-13.2%

-13.8%

-22.0% -30.0%

-27.9%

178 College Park

End-of-Year Value Growth

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Median Home Value and CDOM 220

$350,000

210

$312,838

200 180

$200,000

$179,625

120 100

$250,000

$221,350 $220,000

136

152

$300,000

$253,625

157

160 140

$289,750

$268,999

$267,500

$193,000 $167,450

121

100

$168,500

80

79

74

101

$150,000

94

84 68

90

60

62 64

40 20 2009

2010

2011

Median CDOM

179 College Park

$50,000

60 31

2008

$100,000

2012

51

33

2013

2014

Average CDOM

2015

48

31

2016

2017

29

$0

2018

Median Value

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 SUMMARY CDOM & Days to Sell by Market Segment 12

$0-$249k:

34 13 29

$250k-$499k:

40 44

30 39

$500k-$749k:

48 49

76 105

50

$750k-$999k:

116 101

$1M-$1.999M:

149 123 156

101

$2M-$2.999M:

0 0 0 0

$3M-$3.999M:

0 0 0 0

$4M-$4.999M:

0 0 0 0

$5M+:

0 0 0 0

0

NOTE: Luxury market sales account for only +/-2.0% of total market sales. Days on market statistics account ONLY for those properties that have sold and not current time on market of all existing excess inventory.

20

40

Median Days to Sell

180 College Park

163

60

80

Average Days to Sell

100

120 Median CDOM

140

160

180

Average CDOM

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Sales Transaction & Volume Performance by Year 550

514

504

500 445

450 400

376

388

396

$153M

$178M

$184M

$180M 467

$120M

300

200 150

$160M $140M

$147M

350

250

$200M

277 $69M

$101M

$100M

$105M

$80M

$91M 202

210 $46M 2008

294

2009

$60M

$60M

$65M

$40M 2010

2011

2012

Transactions

181 College Park

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE TRANSACTION Performance by Year (10 Year History) 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

60

51

72

62

103

77

2012

2013

96

127

88

2014

2015

2016

114

96

0 2008

2009 Q1

182 College Park

2010 Q2

2011 Q3

Q4

Q1 - Q4 Total

2017

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


END OF Q2 – CUMULATIVE VOLUME Performance by Year (10 Year History) $180M $160M $140M $120M $100M $80M $60M $40M

$38M $14M

$20M

$13M

$16M

$15M

2010

2011

$27M

$20M

$23M

2013

2014

$31M

$43M

$38M

2017

2018

$M 2008

2009 Q1

183 College Park

Q2

2012 Q3

Q4

2015 Q1 - Q4 Total

2016

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Sales Transaction & Volume Performance 58

60 55 $18M $17M

37

$15M

46

$13M

$13,000,000

$12M

34

30 25 20

$15,000,000

$14M

41

40

$11M

$19,000,000

$18M

$17,000,000 46

44 37

$21M

$17M

$15M

40 35

$21,000,000

$19M

50 45

$23,000,000

35

$9M

$11,000,000 $9,000,000

30

29

27

$7,000,000 $5,000,000

Dec-17 Jan-18

Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Transactions

184 College Park

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Transaction Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

184

134

$250,000-$499,999: 49 47 8

$750,000-$999,999: 5

$1 million-$1.999 million: $2 million-$2.999 million:

0 01 0

$3 million-$3.999 million:

0 0 0 0

$4 million-$4.999 million:

0 0 0 0

$5 million and up:

0 0 0 0

0

8 8

13

24

223

231

$1-$2M 2.72%

65 68

$750k-$1M 6.69%

32 $0-$250k 28.03%

13

$500-$750k 14.23%

2018 Transaction Percentages 25

50

2015

185 College Park

201

182

$500,000-$749,999:

250

194

75

100

2016

125

150

175

2017

200

$250-$500k 48.33%

225

250

275

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Volume Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

34M 33M

25M

42M

$250,000-$499,999:

60M

74M 77M

30M 29M

$500,000-$749,999: 7M

$750,000-$999,999:

6M

$1 million-$1.999 million: $2 million-$2.999 million:

K K K

$3 million-$3.999 million:

K K K K

$4 million-$4.999 million:

K K K K

$5 million and up:

K K K K

$-

10M

11M

11M

20M

40M 42M

$0-$250k 13.13%

$1-$2M 8.92%

27M $750k-$1M 14.33%

17M

3M

2018 Volume Percentages

$500-$750k 22.31% $250-$500k 41.31%

$10,000,000 $20,000,000 $30,000,000 $40,000,000 $50,000,000 $60,000,000 $70,000,000 $80,000,000

2015

186 College Park

68M

2016

2017

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Annual Inventory Levels 325

$120,000,000

$112M 288

275

$110,000,000

295

$100,000,000

253 $97M

$90,000,000

225 $77M

$66M 168

175

151 $50,000,000

160 141

$40,000,000

137

$40M

75

$60,000,000

$50M

148 $50M

$50M

125

$30,000,000 94

2008

2009

2010

Listings

187 College Park

2011

2012

$80,000,000 $70,000,000

$55M 136

$72M

$71M

2013

Volume

2014

2015

2016

2017

$20,000,000 2018

Poly. (Listings)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months Inventory Levels 170 $80M

160 $74M

150 140

$65M

$76M $72M

128

$50M

114

161

$80M 162 156

142

140

120

$80M

$73M

$66M

130

110

$85,000,000

$83M

145

$80M

$80,000,000 151 $75,000,000 $72M

$65,000,000 126

126

$60,000,000 $55,000,000

115

100 90

$70,000,000

$50,000,000 94 Dec-17 Jan-18

$45,000,000 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Units

188 College Park

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18

Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Median Inventory Levels by Market Segment 100 90 80

76 73

70 60 50

64

56

66 60

33 32

30 9

6

3

1 0 0 0

2013 $0-$250k $1M-$2M $5M +

189 College Park

31

27

33

23

18

20 0

53

45

42

40

10

59

7

8 4

2

2014

0 0 0

14 4

2

2015 $250k-$500k $2M-$3M Poly. ($0-$250k)

0 0 0

17

14 12

9 1 0 0 0

11 0 0 0 0

2016

2017

$500k-$750k $3M-$4M Poly. ($250k-$500k)

0 0 0 0

2018 $750k-$1M $4M-$5M

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Data Median Annual Months of Inventory & Sale to List % 18

17.5

16.8

16 14

96.9% 94.2%

93.9%

93.7%

12

93.9%

95.4% 92.2%

95.1%

85.3%

92.2%

96.8%

94.2%

12.0 85.4%

85.4%

97.1%

94.0%

96.9%

95.2%

97.4% 97% 95.7% 95%

93% 91%

87.4%

10

96.4%

8.2

8 6

89%

The variance between original list to sale % vs. current list to sale % may be an indication of 1) a more honed pricing strategy or 2) market conditions. Supply & demand vs. time-on-market play an interchanged role in this metric.

4.6

4

4.1

4.9

4.0

4.5

87% 85% 83%

3.4

3.7

79%

2 0

81% 77%

2008

2009

2010

2011

Months of Inventory

190 College Park

2012

2013

2014

Sale to Original Price %

2015

2016

2017

Q2 2018

75%

Sale to List Price %

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Transaction Performance by Product Type 50

50 40

40

41

39 34

29

26

30

34 30

28

25

23

19

20 10 0

5

3

0

Dec-17

1

3

54 0

0

Jan-18

Feb-18

1

3

4 0

Mar-18

2

0

0

Apr-18 May-18

Single Family Home

191 College Park

32

6 1

0

Jun-18

Townhouse

23

0

Jul-18

2

8

5 0

Aug-18

Condo

33

0

Sep-18

1

0

Oct-18

1

3

1

43

0

Nov-18 Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Volume Performance by Product Type $20,000,000

$19M

$18,000,000

$16M

$16M

$16,000,000 $14,000,000

$18M $15M

$14M

$13M

$13M

$12,000,000

$12M

$11M

$12M

$10M

$10,000,000

$7M

$8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000

1M

244K1M

$0 Dec-17

Jan-18

963K 573K Feb-18

180K 584K Mar-18

1M 1M Apr-18

Single Family Home

192 College Park

1M

266K 2M

552K May-18

Jun-18

Townhouse

925K 427K 599K 553K2M Jul-18

Aug-18

Condo

606K Sep-18

227K 1M Oct-18

1M 224K 777K Nov-18

397K Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Transaction Performance by Month 70 66

65

63

60

58

57

55

53 50

50

48 45

45

42

48 48 46

44 42

43

42

41 41

40

40

38

37

37

36

30

41

43

37

33 31

43

42

37 35

35 30

48 46

34

34

31

34

35 33

31

29

29

29

27

26

27

25 20

January

February

March

2015

193 College Park

April

May

June

2016

July

August

2017

September

October

November December

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Volume Performance by Month $30,000,000 $26M

$25,000,000 $21M

$20,000,000

$19M $18M $16M

$17M $17M

$15,000,000

$10,000,000

$17M

$11M

$8M

$10M $9M

$18M

$18M

$16M $17M

$16M

$15M

$15M $13M

$14M

$14M $13M

$12M

$12M

$19M

$16M $13M

$12M

$19M $18M

$13M

$11M

$11M $9M

$9M

$14M

$12M

$13M

$10M

$10M

$8M

$15M

$13M

$11M $9M $8M

$7M

$5,000,000

$0 January

February

March

2015

194 College Park

April

May

2016

June

July

August

September October November December

2017

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


THE REPORT

DOWNTOWN ORLANDO MARKET PERFORMANCE

(32801 & 32803 ZIP CODES)

CURRENT AND HISTORIC SALES & INVENTORY SUMMARY

RETURN TO TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Downtown - Median Home Value Annual Growth Trajectory 29.8%

30.0% 25.0%

20.1%

20.0% 15.0%

11.8%

10.0% 5.0%

5.3%

4.4%

8.0%

9.0%

2015

2016

2017

4.1%

0.0% -5.0%

2008

-10.0%

-7.7%

-15.0% -20.0%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2018

-25.0% -30.0% -35.0% -40.0%

-28.4% -35.1% End-of-Year Value Growth

196 Downtown

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Median Home Value and CDOM 160 140

$288,000

150 $263,725

135

$280,000

$253,875

120 100

$276,750

$220,000 $201,250

86

$171,055

50

52 37

40 $122,500

$129,000

29

71

69

62

$167,500

$200,000

80

78

76

80 60

$240,000

$225,000

104

101

$260,000

$235,000

111

$300,000

44

70 42

36

27

32

20

$180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000

2008

2009

2010

2011

Median CDOM

197 Downtown Orlando

2012

2013

2014

Average CDOM

2015

2016

2017

2018

Median Value

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 SUMMARY CDOM & Days to Sell by Market Segment 21

$0-$249k:

46

21 23

$250k-$499k:

55

29 36

$500k-$749k:

52 60 70

45

118 75

$750k-$999k:

79 81 82

$1M-$1.999M: 0 0 0 0

$2M-$2.999M:

$4M-$4.999M:

0 0 0 0

$5M+:

0 0 0 0

0

116 96

103

NOTE: Luxury market sales account for only +/-2.0% of total market sales.

7 7 7 7

$3M-$3.999M:

88

Days on market statistics account ONLY for those properties that have sold and not current time on market of all existing excess inventory. *1 transaction

20 Median Days to Sell

198 Downtown Orlando

40

60 Average Days to Sell

80

100 Median CDOM

120

140

Average CDOM

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Sales Transaction & Volume Performance by Year 850

813

750

733

712

$247M $218M

550

478

$175M

450 350 250 150

805

715

643

641

650

785

777

$290M

$262M $240M

$236M $190M

$184M $140M

$129M 306 $94M

$101M

$116M

$90M

$90M $40M 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Transactions

199 Downtown Orlando

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE TRANSACTION Performance by Year (10 Year History) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100

82

142

157

169

150

2011

2012

159

189

181

186

182

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

162

0 2008

2009

2010

Q1

200 Downtown Orlando

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 - Q4 Total

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE VOLUME Performance by Year (10 Year History) $250M $200M $150M $100M $50M

$18M

$28M

$25M

$30M

$29M

2010

2011

2012

$39M

$52M

2013

2014

$52M

$60M

$60M

$54M

$M 2008

2009 Q1

201 Downtown Orlando

Q2

Q3

Q4

2015 Q1 - Q4 Total

2016

2017

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Sales Transaction & Volume Performance 100

$35,000,000

$33M

90 80

80

89

76 $23M

70 $26M 59

62

68 $25M

63

60

64

$30,000,000

$27M 68

75 55

$23M

$21M

$21M $19M

50

$19M

$20,000,000 $16M

48

$18M 46

40 30

$25,000,000

$16M

$15,000,000

$10,000,000 Dec-17 Jan-18

Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Transactions

202 Downtown Orlando

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18

Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Transaction Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

343

281

273

$250,000-$499,999: 58

$500,000-$749,999:

59

$750,000-$999,999:

8

$1 million-$1.999 million:

8 9 9

339

464

353

375

391

$750k-$1M 2.72%

$1-$2M 1.73%

$500-$750k 10.12%

68

67

16 19

21

$2 million-$2.999 million:

0 1 0 0

$3 million-$3.999 million:

0 0 0

$4 million-$4.999 million:

0 0 0

$5 million and up:

0 0 0

16

$0-$250k 36.54%

2018 Transaction Percentages

1

0 0

0

50

100

2015

203 Downtown Orlando

150

200

2016

250

300

350

2017

$250-$500k 48.64%

400

450

500

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Volume Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

49M

58M 58M

75M

91M

$250,000-$499,999: 35M 36M

$500,000-$749,999: 6M

$750,000-$999,999:

$2 million-$2.999 million:

K K K K

$3 million-$3.999 million:

K K K

$4 million-$4.999 million:

K K K K

$5 million and up:

K K K K

127M 130M $3-$4M $1-$2M 2.23% 6.72%

42M 40M

$750k-$1M 6.79%

14M 16M 18M 11M 11M 11M

$1 million-$1.999 million:

111M

$0-$250k 19.06% 22M

$500-$750k 17.62%

2018 Volume Percentages

3M

$-

$20,000,000

2015

204 Downtown Orlando

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

2016

$80,000,000

$250-$500k 47.59%

$100,000,000 $120,000,000 $140,000,000

2017

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Annual Inventory Levels 700 $189M 600

$200,000,000 $180,000,000 558

590

500

$144M

$160,000,000 $140,000,000

437

400 $107M

300

301 $84M

200 100

$90M $70M

227

$102M

$110M $92M

$88M

$120,000,000 $100,000,000 $80,000,000

$63M

247 251

265

$60,000,000 228

206

$40,000,000

188

$20,000,000 2008

2009

2010

Listings

205 Downtown Orlando

2011

2012

2013

Volume

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Poly. (Listings)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months Inventory Levels 270 260 $114M

250

255

$116M $116M $110M 238

230 $101M

220

227

$120,000,000

$107M 235

227

$109M 233

230

$116M $113M

$115,000,000 $110,000,000

$110M $105,000,000

226 $100,000,000

210

212

200

180

$100M

257 247

240

190

$125,000,000

$121M

211

$95,000,000

188

$90,000,000

$88M Dec-17 Jan-18

$85,000,000 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Units

206 Downtown Orlando

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Median Inventory Levels by Market Segment 160 140

138

120

110

116

119

102

100 80

122 116

106

98

69

66

60

47 37

40 20

18 4

0

35

27 14

7

2 0 0 0

2013 $0-$250k $1M-$2M $5M +

207 Downtown Orlando

4

18

10 12

7 0 0 0 0

2014

0 0 0 0

2015 $250k-$500k $2M-$3M Poly. ($0-$250k)

40

20

19

10

12

9

1 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

2016

2017

$500k-$750k $3M-$4M Poly. ($250k-$500k)

1 0 0 0

2018 $750k-$1M $4M-$5M

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Data Median Annual Months of Inventory & Sale to List % 26

24.9

24 22

95.1%

96.5%

94.3%

20 18 16

91.1% 86.7%

88.1%

14 12

96.1%

90.8%

94.3%

95.8%

97.1%

97.0%

94.7%

94.5%

97.0%

94.7%

97.1%

95.8%

97.5% 95.9%

6.6

8 6

4.6

4 2 0

97.2%

The variance between original list to sale % vs. current list to sale % may be an indication of 1) a more honed pricing strategy or 2) market conditions. Supply & demand vs. time-on-market play an interchanged role in this metric.

15.1 10.1

10

96.5%

2008

2009

2010

2011

Months of Inventory

208 Downtown Orlando

2012

3.9

2013

4.1

4.3

4.2

3.5

3.6

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Sale to Original Price %

98% 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70%

Sale to List Price %

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Transaction Performance by Product Type 55

51

50 45 40

42

41

37

38

35

31

35

34

34

30

26

33

30

30

27

24

25

39

23

33 33

28

32 26

25

22

18

20 15 10 5 0

12

9

7 0

Dec-17

1

0

Jan-18

2

0

Feb-18

1

0

Mar-18

3

4 0

Apr-18 May-18

Single Family Home

209 Downtown Orlando

0

3

0

0

Jun-18

Jul-18

Townhouse

3

0

Aug-18

Condo

2

0

Sep-18

2

0

Oct-18

2

0

3

1

Nov-18 Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Volume Performance by Product Type $25,000,000

$24M

$20,000,000 $17M $15,000,000 $14M

$16M

$16M

$16M

$13M

$13M

$12M

$11M $10,000,000

9M

10M

8M

8M

7M

6M

5M

$5,000,000 935K

635K

4K

$0 Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

5M

978K

Apr-18

Single Family Home

210 Downtown Orlando

$11M

1M

May-18

3M 934K Jun-18

Townhouse

Jul-18

187K 4M

943K

Aug-18

Condo

$11M

8M

6M

6M

$12M

717K

Sep-18

1M 4M

2M

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Transaction Performance by Month 100

100 89

90 82 76

75

73

70

50 40

82

79

80

60

82

67 59

57

79 74

73 68

73

69

67

68 63

62 58

57

55

76

75

64

63

62

61

71 72

69

77

82

80

55

56

55

56 49

50

46

45

48

43 38

30 20

January

February

March

2015

211 Downtown Orlando

April

May

June

2016

July

August

2017

September

October

November December

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Volume Performance by Month $36M

$35,000,000

$33M

$30,000,000

$27M $26M

$25,000,000 $20M $20M

$21M

$20,000,000

$19M

$19M

$23M

$23M $22M

$19M

$23M $22M $20M

$20M $19M

$26M

$25M

$24M

$23M

$19M $19M

$23M $21M

$22M $20M $18M

$18M $16M

$16M

$15,000,000

$26M

$15M

$15M

$13M

$14M

$13M

$21M $19M

$19M $18M

$17M

$16M

$16M

$16M $13M

$11M

$10,000,000 $5,000,000 $0 January

February

March

2015

212 Downtown Orlando

April

May

2016

June

July

August

September October November December

2017

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


DR. PHILLIPS (32819 & 32836 ZIP CODES) MARKET PERFORMANCE CURRENT AND HISTORIC SALES & INVENTORY SUMMARY

RETURN TO TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Dr. Phillips - Median Home Value Annual Growth Trajectory 19.2%

20.0%

18.1%

14.2%

15.0%

10.8%

10.0%

5.7%

5.0%

8.5% 3.6%

1.0%

0.0% -5.0%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

-10.0% -15.0% -20.0%

-15.5% -21.4%

-25.0% -30.0% -35.0% -40.0%

214 Dr. Phillips

-37.8%

End-of-Year Value Growth

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Median Home Value and CDOM 180 160

$362,405

165

$349,885

$350,000

$322,500

$346,500

137

140

$301,938

$305,000

$300,000

$272,475

120 100

110 122

109

85

$215,625

80

83

104

$230,750

90

95

93 79

95

$193,625

$250,000

$200,000

$169,500

60 62

40 35

20 2008

2009

2010

39

2011

Median CDOM

215 Dr. Phillips

37

2012

39

2013

54

47

2014

Average CDOM

$150,000

51 37

2015

2016

2017

$100,000

2018

Median Value

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 SUMMARY CDOM & Days to Sell by Market Segment 18

$0-$249k:

19 31 35

$250k-$499k:

NOTE: Luxury market sales account for only +/-2.0% of total market sales.

43 45

$500k-$749k:

61 68 58 63

$750k-$999k:

65 67

102

124

97 125 79 83 76

$1M-$1.999M:

Days on market statistics account ONLY for those properties that have sold and not current time on market of all existing excess inventory.

111 165 156 165 156

$2M-$2.999M: 73 73

$3M-$3.999M: $4M-$4.999M:

97 97 104 104

136 136

359

$5M+: 0

50

100

Median Days to Sell

216 Dr. Phillips

150

200

Average Days to Sell

250

300 Median CDOM

350

388 388 388

400

450

Average CDOM

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Historic 10 Year Sales Transaction & Volume Performance by Year 1,150 1,044

1,050 948

950

980

250

$350M $300M

$322M 451 $184M

$205M

$500M

$400M

$350M

450 350

$440M

$392M

$281M

$550M

$450M $420M

747

650 550

$510M

899

827

750

1,009

978 912

850

1,075

$250M

$271M

$200M

$222M

$150M $100M

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Transactions

217 Dr. Phillips

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE TRANSACTION Performance by Year (10 Year History) 1,000 800 600 400 230 200

202

241

2010

2011

188

210

250

262

2012

2013

2014

2015

221

245

255

96

0 2008

2009 Q1

218 Dr. Phillips

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1 - Q4 Total

2016

2017

2018

Poly. (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE VOLUME Performance by Year (10 Year History) $450M $400M $350M $300M $250M $200M $150M $100M

$31M

$55M

$50M

$83M

$61M

$70M

$100M

$100M

$93M

$110M

2016

2017

$126M

$50M $M 2008

2009 Q1

219 Dr. Phillips

2010 Q2

2011

2012 Q3

2013 Q4

2014

2015 Q1 - Q4 Total

2018

Linear (Q4)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Sales Transaction & Volume Performance 110

$50M

105

101

$47M

100 95

$48M

$48M

$40M 91

90 85

$55,000,000

107

83

$44M

$43M

$45,000,000

98

$44M

$40,000,000

$37M 92

$36M

$45M

93

$32M 90

$37M

91

88

$35,000,000 $30,000,000

80 75 70

$50,000,000

$25,000,000

76

76

Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Transactions

220 Dr. Phillips

Jul-18

72 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

$20,000,000

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Transaction Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

244

301

346

260 442

$250,000-$499,999: 111

$500,000-$749,999: 34 29 39

$750,000-$999,999:

22

$1 million-$1.999 million:

150

$5M+ 0.28%

188

$3 million-$3.999 million:

3 3 3 4

$4 million-$4.999 million:

1 0 0 3

$5 million and up:

1 1 1 3

0

$3-$4M 0.37%

$2-$3M 1.67%

$1-$2M 3.07% $750k-$1M 4.74%

51

28 44 33 $0-$250k 24.19%

16 13 9 18

$2 million-$2.999 million:

$500-$750k 17.49%

2018 Transaction Percentages 100

2015

221 Dr. Phillips

137

519 532 515

200

300

2016

400

2017

$250-$500k 47.91%

500

600

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Comparison Volume Performance by Market Segment $0-$249,999:

34M 37M

43M

52M

152M

$250,000-$499,999: 68M

$500,000-$749,999: 29M 24M 33M

$750,000-$999,999:

30M 37M

$2 million-$2.999 million:

33M

43M

$4 million-$4.999 million:

K K

$-

$1-$2M 6.47%

41M 42M

$750k-$1M 10.05%

2018 Volume Percentages

$250-$500k 35.89%

13M

20M

$40,000,000

2015

222 Dr. Phillips

$2-$3M 9.79%

60M

5M

5M 6M 7M

$5 million and up:

113M

$4-$5M 1.56% $3-$4M 2.92%

$0-$250k 8.33%

11M 9M 10M 15M

$3 million-$3.999 million:

$5M+ 2.46%

44M

$1 million-$1.999 million: 22M

84M 89M

183M 185M 184M

$80,000,000

2016

$120,000,000

$500-$750k 22.52%

$160,000,000

2017

$200,000,000

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Annual Inventory Levels 900 800

$460,000,000

$440M

$410,000,000

858 738

$360,000,000 669

700

$308M

$304M

$312M $285M

$311M

600

$300M

$223M

$247M

$286M

$260,000,000

$229M

$210,000,000

500 457

400 300

$310,000,000

2008

2009

2010

Listings

223 Dr. Phillips

2011

2012

344

315 2013

Volume

368

420

416 363

$160,000,000

461

2014

2015

2016

2017

$110,000,000 $60,000,000

2018

Poly. (Listings)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months Inventory Levels 430

$350,000,000

$342M

420

$320M

$318M $320M

$340,000,000

415

412

$325M

$324M

410

420

$330,000,000 400

$320,000,000

400 $304M

390

396

380 $285M

394

$315M

$310,000,000 $311M $302M

382

370

374

373

375

372

$300,000,000

$305M $286M

368

360 350 340

$290,000,000 $280,000,000 $270,000,000 $260,000,000

344 Dec-17 Jan-18

$250,000,000 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Units

224 Dr. Phillips

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Median Inventory Levels by Market Segment 208

221

220 200

193

177

180

142

160 140 120 110 100

128

113

111

80 60 40 20

99

43

0 2013

$0-$250k $1M-$2M $5M +

225 Dr. Phillips

74

17

19

20

2014

7

23

1 4

2015 $250k-$500k $2M-$3M Poly. ($0-$250k)

33

18 5

13

3 2 7

0 4

49

47

35 44

35

33 4 2 5

90

70

60

2120 17

102 91

2016

3 0 6

2017

$500k-$750k $3M-$4M Poly. ($250k-$500k)

48 39 13

7

3 6

2018 $750k-$1M $4M-$5M

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 Year Historic Data Median Annual Months of Inventory & Sale to List % 25

98.1%

22.5

20

96.4%

95.5% 94.2%

94.2%

93.8%

97.2%

94.5%

97.3% 96.1%

87.9%

15

9.1

10

6.6

5.9

5

0

2008

2009

2010

2011

Months of Inventory

226 Dr. Phillips

95.0%

96.7%

94.0%

97.0%

95.0%

97.0%

94.8%

97.3% 95.6%

2012

4.6

2013

5.6

2014

Sale to Original Price %

6.3

2015

5.9

2016

5.5

2017

100% 95% 90%

The variance between original list to sale % vs. current list to sale % may be an indication of 1) a more honed pricing strategy or 2) market conditions. Supply & demand vs. time-on-market play an interchanged role in this metric.

13.3

87.4%

96.6%

85% 80% 4.3

2018

75% 70%

Sale to List Price %

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Transaction Performance by Product Type 80 70

73

75

71

68

65

62

60

60

64

60

59 53

50

50

51

40 30 21

20 10

10 9

15 7

24

22 14

7

14

17 12

7 8

5

14 11

89

1312

12 7

6

16 7

0 Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18 May-18

Single Family Home

227 Dr. Phillips

Jun-18

Townhouse

Jul-18

Aug-18

Condo

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18 Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Last 12 Months of Volume Performance by Product Type $50,000,000 $45,000,000 $40,000,000 $35,000,000

$45M

$42M

$41M

$36M

$34M $30M

$30,000,000

$40M

$39M

$39M

$37M $32M

$30M

$27M

$25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000

3M 3M

2M 4M

2M 4M

3M 4M

1M

3M

3M 4M

2M 2M

3M

Jun-18

Jul-18

$0 Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Single Family Home

228 Dr. Phillips

May-18

Townhouse

2M 3M

2M

Aug-18

Condo

3M 1M Sep-18

1M 5M

2M

4M 2M

Oct-18

Nov-18

2M Dec-18

Duplex

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Four Year Transaction Performance by Month 120

114 111

110

107 101

100 91

90

93

92

76 69 66

86

84

97 93

93

80

79

99

98

96

84

80 70

99

95

107

96 90

85

81 82

79

77

77

92

91

89

88 81

83

80

76

76

79

72

70 66 63

62

61

60 50 40 30 20

January

February

March

2015

229 Dr. Phillips

April

May

June

2016

July

August

2017

September

October

November December

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Three Year Volume Performance by Month $55,000,000

$53M $50M

$50,000,000

$48M $44M $43M

$45,000,000

$40M

$40,000,000 $35,000,000 $30,000,000

$48M

$37M $38M

$36M

$46M

$43M

$39M

$36M

$30M

$27M $24M

$44M

$34M

$43M

$40M

$41M $33M

$45M

$35M

$38M $34M

$33M

$31M $30M $29M

$47M

$29M

$30M

$40M

$38M $36M $36M $35M $37M $34M

$34M $29M $25M

$35M $33M

$32M

$25,000,000 $20M

$20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $0 January

February

March

2015

230 Dr. Phillips

April

May

2016

June

July

August

September October November December

2017

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


THE REPORT

LUXURY SEGMENT ($1 MILLION AND UP) MARKET PERFORMANCE CURRENT AND HISTORIC SALES & INVENTORY SUMMARY BY MAJOR MARKET CITY AND NOTABLE COMMUNITIES RETURN TO TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2017 LUXURY – TOTAL COUNTY TRANSACTION SUMMARY $2M-$3M, 59

Total Market , 21,702

$3M-$4M, 17

1.9% of total market Luxury Market, 412

$4M-$5M, 5 $5M +, 7

$1M-$2M, 324

Total

232 Luxury Market

$1M-$2M

$2M-$3M

$3M-$4M

$4M-$5M

$5M +

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 TOTAL COUNTY TRANSACTION SUMMARY $2M-$3M, 65

Total Market , 21,930

$3M-$4M, 24 +/-2.0% of total market Luxury Market, 445

$4M-$5M, 6 $5M +, 12

$1M-$2M, 338

Total

$1M-$2M

233 Luxury Market

$2M-$3M

$3M-$4M

$4M-$5M

$5M +

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2017 – TOTAL COUNTY VOLUME SUMMARY $2M-$3M, $142,588,400

Total Market , $6.2B

$3M-$4M, $59,121,036

+/-11.5% of total market volume Luxury Market, $713,187,258

$4M-$5M, $21,842,500 $5M +, $47,863,000 $1M-$2M, $441,772,322

Total

234 Luxury Market

$1M-$2M

$2M-$3M

$3M-$4M

$4M-$5M

$5M +

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 - TOTAL COUNTY VOLUME SUMMARY Total Market , $6.8B

2 +/-1

.9 %

tal m of to

o et v ark

$2M-$3M, $150,745,904 e lum

$3M-$4M, $83,699,500

$4M-$5M, $25,512,913

$797,049,649

$5M +, $71,363,333

$1M-$2M, $465,727,999

Total

235 Luxury Market

$1M-$2M

$2M-$3M

$3M-$4M

$4M-$5M

$5M +

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


TOTAL COUNTY HISTORIC 10 YEAR MEDIAN HOME VALUE AND CDOM $1,496,250

500 450

$1,468,750 $1,454,500

$1,412,500

$1,427,474

$1,412,500

$1,392,100

$1,400,000 278

$1,341,498

302

250 200

$1,450,000

$1,428,750

353

350 300

435

373

400

$1,500,000

256 226

232 $1,325,000

150

199

100

250

156

$1,292,500

195

2010

2011

Median CDOM

236 Luxury Market

2012

176

176 $1,300,000

147

124

50 2009

$1,350,000

184

75

2008

180

2013

2014

Average CDOM

92

2015

2016

88

88

2017

$1,250,000

2018

Median Value

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 SUMMARY CDOM & DAYS TO SELL BY MARKET SEGMENT 62

$1M-$1.999M:

106

82

139 107 120 122

$2M-$2.999M: 35 35

$3M-$3.999M:

$4M-$4.999M:

141

*13 transactions

51 89 *6 transactions

117 117 117 117

$5M+:

*12 transactions

0

50

100

Median Days to Sell

237 Luxury Market

150

200

Average Days to Sell

250

309

365 365

280

300

Median CDOM

350

400

Average CDOM

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


HISTORIC 10 YEAR SALES TRANSACTION & VOLUME PERFORMANCE BY YEAR 490

$797M $840M $713M

440 390 $499M

290

$390M $316M $223M

190 140 90

$640M

412

340

240

445 $740M

$274M

172

168

$322M

181

$277M

230

$407M 297

$517M 314

248

2009

2010

2011

179

2012

2013

Transactions

2014

As Central Florida’s population and business presence continues to grow, so too will the luxury market. Though overall transaction activity remains low in comparison to the general market, rapid growth of the luxury space over the past two years may be an indication that a wealthier base is moving to the region.

127 2008

$540M

2015

2016

2017

$440M $340M $240M $140M $40M

2018

Volume

* 2018 projection is derived from 5 year average of Q1 & Q2 performance.

238 Luxury Market

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE TRANSACTION Performance by Year (10 Year History) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

26

45

39

52

2009

2010

2011

48

48

2012

2013

62

70

84

105

98

0 2008

Q1

239 Luxury Market

Q2

Q3

2014 Q4

2015

2016

2017

2018

Q1 - Q4 Total

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


2018 – CUMULATIVE VOLUME Performance by Year (10 Year History) $700M $600M $500M $400M $300M $200M $100M

$45M

$79M

$58M

$51M

$71M

2011

2012

$79M

$99M

$111M

2013

2014

2015

$128M

$188M

$180M

$M 2008

2009 Q1

240 Luxury Market

2010

Q2

Q3

Q4

2016

2017

2018

Q1 - Q4 Total

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


TOTAL COUNTY

LAST 12 MONTHS OF SALES TRANSACTION & VOLUME PERFORMANCE 53

55

$110,000,000

50 45

45 40 35 30

$69M

39

$69M

$67M

39

$66M

$40M

$52M

33

$54M 27

24

20

39

$87M

$60M

$90,000,000 $80,000,000

41

$79M 38

32

$85M

$99M

25

15

$100,000,000

48

$70,000,000 $60,000,000

$40M

$50,000,000 $40,000,000

26

$30,000,000 $20,000,000 $10,000,000

Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Transactions

241 Luxury Market

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


FOUR YEAR COMPARISON TRANSACTION PERFORMANCE BY MARKET SEGMENT 237 252

$1 million-$1.999 million:

324 338 $5M+ 2.93%

40

$2 million-$2.999 million:

37

$4-$5M 1.46%

59

$3-$4M 5.85%

65 13 18 17

$3 million-$3.999 million:

$2-$3M 15.85%

24 3 5 5 6

$4 million-$4.999 million:

2018 Transaction Percentages

4 2

$5 million and up:

7 12

0

50

100

2015

242 Luxury Market

$1-$2M 73.90%

150

2016

200

250

2017

300

350

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


FOUR YEAR COMPARISON VOLUME PERFORMANCE BY MARKET SEGMENT 319M 333M

$1 million-$1.999 million:

442M 466M 96M 92M

$2 million-$2.999 million:

$4-$5M 4.08%

$5M+ 8.52%

143M 151M 45M

$3-$4M 10.60%

58M 59M

$3 million-$3.999 million:

84M 13M 27M 22M 26M

$4 million-$4.999 million:

2018 Volume Percentages

26M 16M

$5 million and up:

48M 71M

$-

$75,000,000

2015

243 Luxury Market

$150,000,000

$225,000,000

2016

$300,000,000

2017

$1-$2M 57.78%

$375,000,000

$2-$3M 19.03%

$450,000,000

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 YEAR HISTORIC ANNUAL INVENTORY LEVELS 700

$1,376M

$1,450,000,000

650

622

$1,350,000,000

600

$1,250,000,000

550

$1,150,000,000

$1,056M

500

$1,050,000,000 494

450 400

$984M

402

2008

2009

2010

Listings

244 Luxury Market

$793M $665M

334

300 250

$895M

$750M

350

$935M

2011

275 2012

366 $598M

359

$819M 403

$765M

414

$950,000,000 $850,000,000 $750,000,000

376

$650,000,000 265

2013

Volume

$550,000,000 2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Poly. (Listings)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


Median Inventory Levels by Market Segment 307

300

271

250 200

304

295

227

172

150 100

74 59

50

24 8

15

78

70 22

8

17

76 28

29 8

12

10

23

78 28 8

20

30 11

19

0 2013

2014

$1 million-$1.999 million $3 million-$3.999 million $5 million and up

245 Luxury Market

2015

2016

2017

2018

$2 million-$2.999 million $4 million-$4.999 million Power ($1 million-$1.999 million)

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 YEAR HISTORIC ANNUAL INVENTORY LEVELS (UNITS) BY SEGMENT AND % OF ANNUAL INVENTORY 450

418

67.2%

70.2%

68.6%

67.2%

65.5%

400

67.4%

68.0%

66.0% 57.9%

347

350 300

274

270

250

242

229

200

180

150 100

66.1%

64.2%

98 15.8%

19.4%

15.6% 77

78

2009

2010

20.1% 67

50

274 248

242

170 19.6%

20.8%

19.6%

54

52

2012

2013

19.5%

18.9%

19.7%

76

70

76

74

16.5% 78

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

0

2008

246 Luxury Market

2011

$1M-$2M

$2M-$3M

$3M-$4M

$4M-$5M

$5M+

$1M%

$2M%

$3M%

$4M %

%5M %

70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


LAST 12 MONTHS INVENTORY LEVELS $1,150,000,000

$1,126M

520

$1,096M

500

$1,100,000,000

$1,043M $1,050,000,000

480 $981M

460 $944M

440

466

$941M 456

$941M 443

$962M 449

380

$953M $951M $941M

443 435

420 400

$1,000,000,000

$831M 383

$935M

443 433

$900,000,000 414

394

397

$850,000,000

400 $800,000,000

Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Units

247 Luxury Market

$950,000,000

Jul-18

Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Volume

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


10 YEAR HISTORIC INVENTORY ACTIVITY BY QUARTER (MONTHS OF INVENTORY) 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

71.8

32.9

30.9 19.3

2008

2009

2010

End-of-Q1 Inventory

248 Luxury Market

2011

17.2

2012

16.6

2013

End-of-Q2 Inventory

17.7

2014

15.5

2015

End-of-Q3 Inventory

15.7

2016

10.9

2017

12.7

2018

End-of-Q4 Inventory

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


MEDIAN ANNUAL INVENTORY ABSORPTION TIME BY SEGMENT (MONTHS OF INVENTORY) $5 million and up:

76.0

19.0

$4 million-$4.999 million:

22.0

$3 million-$3.999 million:

15.0

$2 million-$2.999 million:

15.5

$1 million-$1.999 million:

10.5 0.0

10.0

26.4

27.7

25.1

15.4 20.0

30.0

40.0

5 Year Median Absorption

249 Luxury Market

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


BY CITY/COMMUNITY THREE YEAR TRANSACTION PERFORMANCE 160 136

140 120 100 80

112

129

117

91 80

Individual city/community transaction counts factor only transactions publically reported above $1 million and not all transactions that may have occurred within the individual city/community.

145 123

116 99 94 89

83 78 56

60

36 36 36 31 28

40 20 0

Winter Park

Windermere

2014

250 Luxury Market

Orlando

2015

Keene's Pointe

22 22 16 1216

1713 20 11 11

Isleworth

Golden Oak

2016

13

9

17 5

6

Lake Butler Sound

2017

9

14

24 20 7

4 7 5 7 7

Lake Nona CC

Waterstone

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


BY CITY/COMMUNITY THREE YEAR VOLUME PERFORMANCE $300,000,000

Individual city/community volume totals factor only transactions publically reported above $1 million and does not sum all transactions that may have occurred within the individual city/community.

$247M

$250,000,000

$232M $233M

$221M $221M

$200,000,000 $175M

$150,000,000

$140M

$172M $159M

$173M

$152M $118M

$132M

$119M

$100,000,000

$87M

$65M $60M $50M $58M $54M $49M $38M

$50,000,000

$75M $35M $30M

$68M $47M $34M $33M $29M

$35M $40M $27M $34M $13M $19M $23M $12M $9M $9M $8M $14M$12M $10M $5M

$0 Winter Park Windermere

2014

251 Luxury Market

Orlando

2015

Keene's Pointe

Isleworth

2016

Golden Oak Lake Butler Sound

2017

Lake Nona CC

Waterstone

2018

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End


SOURCES

THE REPORT

¡

My Florida Regional MLS

¡

Orange County, Florida Property Appraiser

¡

United States Federal Reserve (St. Louis, New York & Atlanta)

¡

Freddie Mac

¡

National Association of Realtors

¡

Orlando Economic Development Commission

¡

Orlando Regional Realtor Association

¡

Florida Office of Economic & Demographic Research

¡

United States Department of Labor

¡

United States Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

¡

United States Department of the Treasury

¡

ESRI

¡

S&P / Case Shiller Home Price Indices

¡

Florida Legislature

¡

Tax Foundation

¡

National Association of Home Builders

¡

American Bar Association

¡

Financial Industry Regulatory Authority

¡

Journal of Medical Regulation

252 Sources

RETURN TO TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Schmidt Report – 2018 • Year-End

Profile for Stockworth Realty Group

The Schmidt Report 2018 Year End Summary  

The Schmidt Report 2018 Year End Summary