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The Red Roadmaster’s US Market Re-cap + Stock Talk

July 8, 2009

Alert: Health-care stocks surged Tuesday after the White House indicated it is open to a compromise on its bid for government-run health-care reforms, which could force big changes on private insurers. Health care, a classic defensive sector, traded in positive territory for most of the day but by the close faded a bit but outperformed the Big market.

Recap of the US Stock Market Action July 8, 2009 US Socks fell to their lowest level in 10 weeks on Tuesday The DJIA shed 161.27 pts, or 1.94 %, to close at 8,163.60, the S&P fell 17.69 pts, or 1.97%, to close at 881.03, and the NAS lost 41.23 pts, or 2.31%, to end the session at 1,746.17. Cyclical stocks in the materials, energy, and industrial sectors led the market South as commodity prices eased on the day. On a day of sharp losses in Big market, the health-care sector was the only group within the S&P 500 Index that gained ground, with advances of 6% to 7% among the likes of Aetna Inc. (AET 25.94, +1.53, +6.27%), Cigna Corp. (CI 25.24, +1.77, +7.54%), UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH 25.17, +1.08, +4.48%) and Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC 2.86, +0.23, +8.75%) Volume and Breadth: trade was below average on the NYSE, with about 1.11B/shrs changing hands, under last year's estimated daily average of 1.49B/shrs, and on the NAS about 2.04B/shrs traded, below last year's daily average of 2.28B/shrs. Declining stocks outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by 4 to 1, and decliners beat advancers on the NAS by about 10 to 3. Stock to Watch Today Aetna Inc (AET), Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT), Key Corporation (KEY), MGM MIRAGE (MGM), Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Humana Inc. (HUM).


Aetna Inc. (AET) July 8, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at Aetna Inc (AET), the giant US insurer, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesday’s (July 7, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term. The recent candlestick analysis is Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Health-care stocks surged Tuesday after the White House indicated its open to a

compromise on its bid for government-run health-care reforms, which could force big changes on private insurers. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/health-care-stocks-rally-as-reform-debate-builds?siteid=yhoof


Tuesday’s Market Action Close 25.94

+ 1.53

Volume14,132,000/shrs

There is a Bullish Engulfing Candle on July 1, and two Gaps open down between Feb 17 and June 3, 2009 at 31.93/26.06, the near term resistance is 27.49, support at 25.03, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 25.01. This is Aetna Inc (AET): The Company, one of the largest health insurers in the US, also offers life, disability, and long-term care insurance, as well as retirement savings products. Its Health Care division offers managed care plans, health savings accounts, and traditional indemnity coverage, along with dental, vision, behavioral health, and Medicare plans. The division covers nearly 18 million medical members. Aetna's Group Insurance segment sells life, disability, and long-term care insurance nationwide. And its Large Case Pensions segment offers pensions, annuities, and other retirement savings products. Competitive Landscape Demand is driven by the rising costs of providing medical care. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient operations and the ability to negotiate favorable contracts with healthcare providers. Large companies and organizations have advantages in negotiating contracts with healthcare providers. Small companies can compete successfully only by providing special coverage plans, or in small markets. The industry is highly automated: annual revenue per employee is close to US$1M. Managed Healthcare Industry Forecast US personal consumption expenditures on health insurance premiums, an indicator for managed healthcare services, are forecast to flatten with an annual compounded growth rate of 0 percent between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 Aetna Inc. (HQ) Ronald A. Williams Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer, 151 Farmington Avenue Hartford, CT 06156 United States Phone: 860-273-0123 Fax: 860-275-2677 http://www.aetna.com


Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) Up-date 13 July 8, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Let’s have a look at Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT), the World's #1 maker of earthmoving machinery and a leading supplier of agri. equipment, from a Technical POV. The overall indications after Tuesday’s (July 7, 2009) market action is Bearish: in the near term Very Bearish, mid-term Bearish and long term Bearish. The recent candlestick analysis is Very Bearish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com


Latest News: Caterpillar Inc. to Announce Y 2009 Q-2 Financial Results on July 21, 2009 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Caterpillar-Inc-to-Announce-prnews-505731720.html?x=0&.v=1 Tuesday’s Market Action Close

30.29

- 1.41

Volume 14,615,700/shrs

There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on July 7 and two Gaps open down between June 17 and July 2, 2009 at 35.39/32.79, the near term resistance is 31.60, support at 29.81, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 32.79. This is Caterpillar, Inc: Caterpillar is the world's #1 maker of earthmoving machinery and a leading supplier of agricultural equipment. It makes construction, mining, and logging machinery; diesel and natural gas engines; industrial gas turbines; and electrical power-generation systems. Caterpillar has plants worldwide and sells its equipment globally via a network of 3,600 locations in 180 countries, offering rental services through more than 1,600 outlets worldwide, and it provides financing and insurance for its dealers and customers. Cat Power Ventures invests in power projects that use Caterpillar power generation equipment, and Caterpillar Logistics Services offers supply chain services Industries Where Caterpillar Competes Construction, Mining & Other Heavy Equipment Manufacturing Agricultural Machinery Manufacturing Financial Services Insurance Transportation Services Caterpillar, Inc. (HQ) Chairman and CEO James W. (Jim) Owens

100 NE Adams St. Peoria, IL 61629 United States Phone: 309-675-1000 Fax: 309-675-1182 http://www.cat.com

Caterpillar Subsidiaries Caterpillar Logistics Services, Inc. Mitsubishi Caterpillar Forklift America Inc. Progress Rail Services Corporation

Key Corporation (KEY) Up-date 3


July 8, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Key Corporation (KEY), a US financial services Giant, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Tuesday’s (July 7, 2009) market action is Bearish: in the near term Neutral, midterm Bearish, and long term Bearish. Recent Candle Stick analysis: Very Bullish

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Discover Financial, KeyCorp, AIG are big movers http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Discover-Financial-KeyCorp-apf-1649035468.html?x=0&.v=2

Tuesday’s Market Action

Close 5.29

+ .21

Volume 39,654,200/shrs


There is a DOJI on July7 and no Gaps up or down on the Chart, the near term resistance is 5.85, support 5.23, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 5.80. This is Key Corporation: Key Corp is a US Financial services giant that focuses on relationship banking and retail operations, flagship subsidiary KeyBank operates more than 950 branches (KeyCenters) in more than 12 states in the USA. Its operations are divided into two groups: community banking offers local banking services including deposits, loans, and financial planning, while national banking provides real estate capital, equipment financing, and capital markets services to large corporate clients. Non-bank subsidiaries offer insurance, brokerage, investment banking, and credit card processing for small businesses. Competitive Landscape Demand for banking services is closely tied to economic activity and the level of interest rates. The profitability of individual banks depends on marketing skills, efficient operations, and good risk management. Large economies of scale exist in some segments of the industry, which has encouraged industry consolidation. Smaller banks can compete successfully in segments where customer service or knowledge of the local market is more important. The industry is capital-intensive and highly automated: annual revenue per employee is close to US$300,000. Industries Where KeyCorp Competes Superregional Banking (primary) Key Corporation (HQ) Chairman, President, and CEO Henry L. Meyer III

127 Public Sq. Cleveland, OH 44114-1306 United States Phone: 216-689-6300 Fax: 216-689-0519 Toll Free: 800-539-6070 http://www.key.com KeyCorp Subsidiaries Key Equipment Finance

MGM Mirage (MGM) Up-date 6


July 8, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at MGM Mirage (MGM), one of the World's largest gaming firms, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Tuesday’s (July 7, 2009) market action is Bearish: in the near term Bearish, mid-term Bearish and long term Bearish. Recent Candle Stick Analysis is: Neutral

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Casino Stock Winners and Losers: Wynn, MGM http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10536360/1/casino-stock-winners-and-losers-wynn.html? cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA Tuesday’s Market Action Close

5.89 + .20

Volume 17,757,700/shrs


There two Gaps open down between May 13 and July 2, 2009 at 11/50/6.04, the near term resistance is 6.69, support at 4.68, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 6.87 . This is MGM MIRAGE (MGM): MGM Mirage through its subsidiaries owns and operates casino resorts in the United States. The company’s resorts offer gaming, hotel, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities. It also owns and operates golf courses and a golf club. As of December 31, 2008, the company’s properties consisted of 17 wholly-owned casino resorts and 50% investments in 4 other casino resorts. It has a strategic alliance with the Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation, which owns and operates a casino resort under the MGM Grand brand name in Ledyard, Connecticut. The company, formerly known as MGM Grand, Inc., was founded in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada. MGM MIRAGE is a subsidiary of Tracinda Corporation. Competitive Landscape Growth in consumer income and state spending has driven expansion of the US gambling industry. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient operations and effective marketing. Large operators have the financial resources to make large investments in facilities and efficient computer operations, and have cross-marketing opportunities. Small gambling facilities can thrive by catering to a local clientèle. The industry is fairly labor-intensive: annual revenue per employee is US$90,000. Gambling Operations Industry Forecast US personal consumption expenditures for participant amusements and pari-mutuel net receipts, which include gambling operations, are forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 MGM Mirage (HQ) James J. Murren: Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer and President 3600 Las Vegas Boulevard South Las Vegas, NV 89109 United States Phone: 702-693-7120 Fax: 702-693-8626 http://www.mgm-mirage.com


Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Up-date 3 July 8, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Let’s have a look at Pfizer Inc. (PFE), the Giant manufacturer of prescription medicines for humans and animals worldwide, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesday’s (July 7, 2009) market action is Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral. Recent Candle Stick Analysis is Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: White House Assures Drug Makers on Reimportation http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124700977149808565.html?ru=yahoo#mod=yahoo_hs


Tuesday’s Market Action Close 14.59

+ .02

Volume 60,920,400/shrs

There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on June 30 and one Gap open up on May 4,, 2009 at 13.58/13.62 the near term resistance is 14.64, support at 14.08 and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 14.59. This is Pfizer Inc. (PFE): The Company engages in the discovery, development, manufacture, and marketing of prescription medicines for humans and animals worldwide. Its Pharmaceutical segment offers Lipitor for elevated cholesterol levels in the blood; Norvasc for hypertension; Caduet for cardiovascular events; Chantix/Champix for smoking cessation; Lyrica for neuropathic pain; Geodon/Zeldox, a psychotropic agent; and Aricept for Alzheimer’s disease. It also provides Celebrex for arthritis pain, and inflammation and acute pain; Vfend for esophageal candidiasis and blood stream infections; Zyvox for bacterial infections; and Selzentry/Celsentri for adults infected with only CCR5-tropic HIV-1 detectable. In addition, this segment provides Viagra for erectile dysfunction; Detrol and Toviaz for overactive bladder; Camptosar for metastatic colorectal cancer; Sutent, an oral multi-kinase inhibitor; Xalatan/Xalacom for open-angle glaucoma and ocular hypertension; and Genotropin for growth disorders. The company’s Animal Health segment offers parasiticides, anti-inflammatories, antibiotics, vaccines, antiemetics, and anti-obesity agents. It also provides Revolution/Stronghold for dogs and cats; Rimadyl for pain and inflammation associated with canine osteoarthritis and soft tissue orthopedic surgery; Clavamox/Synulox for skin and soft tissue infections; RespiSureOne/StellamuneOne to prevent pneumonia in swine; Bovi-Shield Gold for reproductive and respiratory protection; Dectomax, an injectable and pour-on formulations; Draxxin, an antibiotic for infections in cattle and swine; and Excede to treat infections in dairy cows, beef cattle, and swine. Pfizer Inc. also involves in contract manufacturing and bulk pharmaceutical chemicals businesses. It serves doctors, nurse practitioners, physician assistants, pharmacists, hospitals, pharmacy benefit managers, managed care organizations, and government agencies. Pfizer, Inc. was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in New York, New York. Competitive Landscape The industry is marked by rapid advances in scientific knowledge that produce ever-more effective medicines. Profitability is determined mainly by the ability to discover new drugs. The industry is dominated by the large manufacturers/marketers that manufacture drugs, have large research operations, and also have large clinical testing, marketing, and distribution capabilities. Small companies are mainly research operations or manufacturers of non-prescription products. Because of the high value of the product, average revenue per employee is a very high US$600,000. Pharmaceutical Manufacture and Sale Industry Forecast The output of US drug manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 8 % between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 Pfizer Inc. (HQ) Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer Jeffrey B. Kindler 235 East 42nd Street New York, NY 10017 United States Phone: 212-573-2323 Fax: 212-573-7851 http://www.pfizer.com

Pfizer Subsidiaries Pfizer Health Solutions Inc Pfizer Ireland Pharmaceuticals Pfizer Limited


HUMANA INC (NYSE: HUM) Up-date 1 July 8, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Humana Inc. (HUM), the USA’s 2nd largest Medicare provider, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Tuesday’s (July 7, 2009) market action, are Neutral; in the near term Bullish, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral. Recent Candle Stick analysis: Very Bullish

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Obama renews support for US public insurance plan http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN0734154120090708?rpc=44

Tuesday’s Market Action Close 31.98

+ 1.04

Volume 5,835,700/shrs


There is a Bearish Harami on Apr 1 and two Gaps open down between Feb 23 and Feb 26, 2009 at 39.36/28.86, the near term resistance is 29.13, support at 27.43, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 28.61. This is Humana Inc. (HUM): Humana Inc. provides various health and supplemental benefit plans for employer groups, government benefit programs, and individuals in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Government and Commercial. The Government segment comprises beneficiaries of government benefit programs. This segment operates in three lines of business: Medicare, Military, and Medicaid. The Medicare programme is a federal program that offers hospital and medical insurance benefits to persons of age 65 and over and some disabled persons under the age of 65. The Military programme provides health insurance coverage to the dependents of active duty military personnel and to retired military personnel and their dependents. The Medicaid programme is a federal program that is state-operated to facilitate the delivery of health care services primarily to low-income residents. The Commercial segment consists of members enrolled in its medical and specialty products marketed to employer groups and individuals. This segment provides various smart plans and other consumer products, including health maintenance organization products that provide prepaid health insurance coverage to its members through a network of independent primary care physicians, specialty physicians, and other health care providers; preferred provider organization products, which are offered primarily to employer groups and individuals; and administrative services only products that are offered to employers who self-insure their employee health plans. It also offers various specialty products, including dental, vision, and other supplemental products, as well as disease management services. As of December 31, 2008, Humana Inc. had approximately 11.6 million members enrolled in medical benefit plans and approximately 6.8 million members enrolled in specialty products programs. The company was founded in 1964. Competitive Landscape Demand is driven by the rising costs of providing medical care. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient operations and the ability to negotiate favorable contracts with healthcare providers. Large companies and organizations have advantages in negotiating contracts with healthcare providers. Small companies can compete successfully only by providing special coverage plans, or in small markets. The industry is highly automated: annual revenue per employee is close to US$1M. Managed Healthcare Industry Forecast US personal consumption expenditures on health insurance premiums, an indicator for managed healthcare services, are forecast to flatten with an annual compounded growth rate of 0% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 Humana Inc. (HQ) Chief Exec. Officer, Pres, Director: Michael B. McCallister 500 West Main Street Louisville, KY 40202 United States Phone: 502-580-1000 Fax: 502-580-3639 http://www.humana.com


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AET, CAT, KEY, MGM,PFE, HUM