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The Red Roadmaster’s US Market Recap

July 6, 2009 Wall St closed out Independence Week lower on very light volume

Recap of the US Stock Market Action for the week ending July 2, 2009 US Stocks went South last Thursday, sending the S&P 500 down to its 3 rd straight weekly loss The lagging DJIA lost 1.9%, the S&P 500 lost 2.5%, and the NAS lost 2.3% on the week. The DJIA shed 223.32 pts (2.63%) to close at 8,280.74, the S& P 500 lost 26.91 pts (2.91%) to close at 896.42, and the NAS was off 49.20 pts (2.67%) to end the session at 1,796.52. The S&P 500 is + 32.5% from the 12-year closing low of March 9, 2009. The New York Stock Exchange was hit by connectivity glitches that affected orders originating from the trading floor, and extended its regular close from 4 p.m. to 4:15 p.m. to execute customer orders affected by system irregularities. Volume and Breadth: On the NYSE, only about 733.6M/shrs changed hands, way below last year's estimated daily average of 1.49 B/shrs, and on the NAS about 1.96B/shr traded, also below last year's daily average of 2.28B/shrs. Declining stocks outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a ratio of 4 to 1, and on the NAS, about five stocks fell for every one that rose.

Big Cap Stocks to Watch Today Alcoa, Inc. (AA), ChevronTexaco Corporation (CVX), ChemGenex Pharmaceuticals (CXSP), General Mills, Inc. (GIS), 3M Company (MMM), and Textron (TXT).

Alcoa Inc. (AA) Up-date 8 July 6, 2009

.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst


Today let’s look at Alcoa, Inc. (AA), one of the world’s top producers of aluminum, from a Technical POV. The overall indication, after Thursday’s (July 2, 2009) market action, is Neutral: in the near term, Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral. Current Candle Stick analysis; Very Bullish

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Wall St Week Ahead: Earnings to set tone for stocks http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFN0511961620090705?rpc=44 Thursday’s Market Action Close 9.86

- .49

Volume 29,496,000/shrs

There is a Homing Pigeon on July 1 and two Gaps open up between Mar 19 and June 1, 2009 at 5.65/9.31, the near term resistance is 10.39, support at 9.61 and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 9.94. This is Alcoa, Inc. (AA): Alcoa is among the world's top producers of alumina (aluminum's principal ingredient, processed from bauxite) and aluminum. Its vertically integrated operations include bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum smelting; primary products include alumina and its chemicals,


automotive components, and sheet aluminum for beverage cans. The company's non-aluminum products include fiber-optic cables. Major markets include the aerospace, automotive, and construction industries. In 2007 Alcoa offered to buy what was then the world's #3 aluminum producer, Alcan, for US$33B but was trumped by Rio Tinto's US$40B offer. The next year it sold its packaging business to the Rank Group. The Competitive Landscape Demand comes largely from the manufacturers of durable goods like motor vehicles, machinery, containers, and construction steel. The profitability of individual companies depends largely on efficient operations, because most products are commodities sold based on price. Big companies have large economies of scale in production. Accordingly, most producers of secondary products buy raw metal from the large producers. Small companies can compete by operating efficient local mini-mills or producing specialty products. The industry is highly automated: average annual revenue per worker is close to US$300,000. Alcoa, Inc (HQ) Chairman Alain J. P. Belda

390 Park Ave. New York, NY 10022-4608 United States Phone: 212-836-2600 Fax: 212-836-2815 http://www.alcoa.com

Alcoa Subsidiaries Alcoa Alunimio S.A. Alcoa Home Exteriors, Inc. Kawneer Company, Inc.

ChevronTexaco Corporation (CVX) Up-date 9 July 6, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s have a look at ChevronTexaco Corporation (CVX), the US Oil Giant, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Thursday’s (July 2, 2009) market action, are Bearish: in the near term Bearish, mid-term Bearish, and long term Bearish. Current Candle Stick analysis; Bullish


**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Wall St Week Ahead: Earnings to set tone for stocks http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFN0511961620090705?rpc=44 Thursday’s Market Action Close 64.42

- 2.10

Volume 10,749,400/shrs

There is a Homing Pigeon on July 1 and two Gap open down between June 22, and July 2, 2009 at 67.37/65.78, the near term resistance is 67.00, support at 63.64, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 67.44. This is ChevronTexaco Corporation (CVX): Texaco's star and its Chevron stripes allow this US Oil Giant to have market clout. It is the 2nd largest US integrated oil company behind Exxon Mobil and has proved reserves of 10.8 B bbls of crude oil equivalent and a daily production of 2.6 MM bbls of crude oil equivalent, and it also owns interests in chemicals, pipelines, and power production businesses. The company, which is restructuring its refinery and retail businesses, owns or has stakes in 9,700 gas


stations in the US which operate under the Chevron and Texaco brands. Outside the US it owns or has stakes in 15,400 gas stations, which also use the Caltex brand. The Competitive Landscape Demand is driven by federal legislation and regulations that establish a government-mandated market for bio-fuels. The profitability of bio-fuel production facilities depends on prices of gas and diesel, which fluctuate based on world petroleum demand and domestic refinery utilization. Economies of scale in ethanol production are limited due to the transportation costs associated with gathering feed stocks (corn and other biomasses) and transporting the ethanol to blending sites. As a result, large companies operate multiple production facilities. Small companies can compete effectively by developing business relations with distributors and being able to assure delivery consistently. Revenue per employee in ethanol production facilities is about US$1MMper year. Industries Where Chevron Competes Energy & Utilities Oil & Gas Refining, Marketing & Distribution Alternative Energy Sources Chemicals Financial Services Retail ChevronTexaco Corporation (HQ) Chairman and CEO David J. (Dave) O'Reilly 6001 Bollinger Canyon Rd. San Ramon, CA 94583 United States Phone: 925-842-1000 Fax: 925-842-3530 http://www.chevron.com

Chevron Subsidiaries and Affiliates Bridgeline Holdings, L.P. Caltex Australia Limited Chevron Mining Inc.

ChemGenex Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CXSP) Up-date 1 July 2, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at ChemGenex Pharmaceuticals (CXSP), a pharmaceutical development company, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Thursday’s (July 2, 2009) market action, are Bullish,


in the near term Bullish, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bullish. Current Candle Stick analysis; Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Pivotal Study Results: ChemGenex's Omacetaxine May Provide the First Viable Drug Treatment Option for Patients with a Highly Resistant Form of CML http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Pivotal-Study-Results-bw-393202721.html?x=0&.v=3

Thursday’s Market Action Close

16.00

+ 2.08

Volume 1,800/shrs

There is an Inverted Hammer on June 19, and four Gaps open up between Apr 20 and June 22, 2009 at 11.50/16.37, the near term resistance is 17.20, support at 15.00, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 14.85.


This is ChemGenex Pharmaceuticals (CXSP): This is a pharmaceutical development company dedicated to improving the lives of patients by developing personalized oncology medicines. ChemGenex harnesses the power of genomics both to discover novel targets and drug compounds and in clinical trials to develop more individualized treatment outcomes. ChemGenex’s lead compound, omacetaxine mepesuccinate, is currently in phase 2/3 clinical trials for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). ChemGenex has a second anticancer compound, amonafide dihydrochloride (Quinamed Ž), which is in phase 2 clinical development for various solid cancers, and a portfolio of assets in pre-clinical development. ChemGenex currently trades on the Australian Stock Exchange under the symbol "CXS" and on NAS under the symbol "CXSP". Competitive Landscape Demand for pharmaceutical manufacture is driven by the desire to cure illness and disease. The profitability of individual companies depends on their ability to discover and market new drugs. Large companies benefit from their economies of scale in research, manufacturing, and marketing. Small companies can compete effectively by specializing in drugs that target one or two specific ailments. The industry is capital-intensive: average annual revenue per worker is about US$700,000. Pharmaceuticals Manufacture Industry Forecast The output of US drug manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 8% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 ChemGenex (HQ) Brett Heading, Chairman

Level 4, 199 Moorabool St. Geelong, Victoria 3220 Australia Phone: +61-3-5223-9900 Fax: +61-3-5229-0100

http://www.chemgenex.com. Disclaimer

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) Up-date 1 July 6, 2009


Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today, let’s look at General Mills, Inc. (GIS), America’s # 2 cereal maker, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Wednesday (March 18, 2009) market action is Bullish: in the near term Very Bullish, mid-term, Bullish and long term Bullish. Recent Candle Stick Analysis is Bearish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Gobble Up This Stock http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/10533640/gobble-up-this-stock.html? cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA&s=1#28504458001 Thursday’s Market Action Close 58.50

+ .32

Volume 5,746,200/shrs

There is a DOJI on June 30 and one Gap open up between Jun 8 and July 1 at 52.43/57.08, the near term resistance is 58.51, support is 57.04, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 53.89.


This is General Mills Inc. (GIS): The Company manufactures and markets branded and packaged consumer foods worldwide. The company also supplies branded and unbranded food products to the foodservice and commercial baking industries. Its products include ready-to-eat cereals, refrigerated yogurt, ready-to-serve soup, dry dinners, shelf stable and frozen vegetables, refrigerated and frozen dough products, dessert and baking mixes, and frozen pizza and pizza snacks. The company also provides grain, fruit, and savory snacks; various organic products, including soup, granola bars, and cereal; fruit and nut energy bars; and ice cream and frozen desserts. It serves grocery stores, mass merchandisers, membership stores, natural food chains, commercial and noncommercial foodservice distributors and operators, restaurants, and convenience stores, as well as drug, dollar, and discount chains. The company was founded in 1928 and is based in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Competitive Landscape Demand is related to eating trends and to the changing structure of the grocery industry. Profitability for individual companies is determined by efficiency of operations. Large companies have scale advantages in procurement, production, and distribution. Small companies can compete by offering specialty goods or superior local distribution services. Despite high automation, the low value of the product produces a fairly modest US$150,000 in annual revenue per employee for commercial bakers. Bakeries Industry Forecast The output for US bakery and pasta products is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 2% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 General Mills Inc. (HQ) Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer and President: Kendall J. Powell One General Mills Boulevard Minneapolis, MN 55426 United States Phone: 763-764-7600 Fax: 763-540-4925 http://www.generalmills.com

General Mills Subsidiaries Medallion Laboratories Small Planet Foods, Inc.

3M Company (MMM) Up-date 5 July 6, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst


Today let’s look at the 3M Company (MMM), the leader in tape and adhesive manufacturing, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Thursday’s (July 2, 2009) market action is Bullish: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Bullish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Neutral

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: A Vaccine without a Needle? 3M has taken technology used in TV screens and applied it to vaccine delivery that could dramatically change vaccine storage and injections

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/10533642/a-vaccine-without-a-needle.html? cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA&s=1#28551621001

Thursday’s Market Action

Close 60.25

- .49

Volume 5,583,000/shrs

There are no open gaps on the chart, he near term resistance is 61.00, support at 59.53, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 57.91. .This is the 3M Company (MMM): 3M makes everything from masking tape to asthma inhalers. The company has six operating segments: display/graphics, specialty film, traffic control materials; health care


(dental and medical supplies, and health IT); safety, security, and protection (commercial care, occupational health and safety products); electro and communications (connecting, splicing, and insulating products); industrial and transportation (specialty materials, tapes, and adhesives); and consumer and office. Well-known brands include Scotchgard fabric protectors, Post-it Notes, Scotch-Brite scouring products, and Scotch tapes. Sales outside the US account for about two-thirds of 3M's sales. Top 3M Competitors Avery Dennison Avery Dennison Johnson & Johnson The 3M Company (HQ) Chairman, President, and CEO George W. Buckley 3M Center St. Paul, MN 55144 United States Phone: 651-733-1110 Fax: 651-733-9973 Toll Free: 800-364-3577 http://www.mmm.com 3M Subsidiaries 3M Digital Signage 3M Health Care 3M Health Care Ltd. (UK)

Textron Inc. (TXT) Up-date 1 July 6, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Textron (TXT), the worldwide manufacturer of Bell Helicopters and Cessna aircraft, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Thursday’s (July 2, 2009) market action is: Bearish in the


near term Bearish, mid-term Bearish, and long term Bearish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Neutral

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News: Bell to launch sales of US$4.9M helicopter http://dallas.bizjournals.com/dallas/stories/2009/06/29/daily36.html?ana=yfcpc

Thursday’s Market Action Close 9.33

- .70

Volume 3,625,600/shrs

There is a Bearish Harami on June 26, and a Gap open up on April 2, 2009 at 6.50/6.70, the near term resistance is 10.28, support at 9.12, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 10.43. This is Textron (TXT): Textron, Inc. operates in the aircraft, industrial, and finance businesses worldwide. It operates through five segments: Cessna, Bell, Textron Systems, Industrial, and Finance.


The Cessna segment manufactures general aviation aircraft, such as business jets, single engine turboprops, and single engine piston aircraft, as well as provides aftermarket services. The Bell segment manufactures and supplies helicopters, tiltrotor aircraft, and helicopter-related spare parts and services for both military and commercial applications. The Textron Systems segment produces precision weapons; airborne and ground-based surveillance systems; intelligence and situational awareness software; armored vehicles and turrets; reciprocating piston aircraft engines; and aircraft and missile control actuators, valves, and related components for the defense, aerospace, and general aviation markets. The Industrial segment develops and manufactures blow-molded fuel systems cars, light trucks, all-terrain vehicles and watercraft, and windshield and headlamp washer systems; produces metal fuel fillers and engine camshafts for the automotive market; and bottles and plastic containers for food, household, laboratory and industrial uses. It also manufactures powered equipment, electrical test and measurement instruments, hand and hydraulic powered tools, and electrical and fiber optic connectors; golf cars and off-road utility vehicles powered by electric and internal combustion engines; and turfmaintenance equipment and turf-care vehicles. The Finance segment provides aircraft finance, assetbased lending, distribution finance, golf finance, resort finance, and structured capital. The company sells its products through a network of sales representatives, distributors, and authorized independent sales representatives, as well as directly to end users, home improvement retailers, and original equipment manufacturers. Textron was founded in 1923 and is based in Providence, the Rhode Island. Competitive Landscape Demand is driven by the US military budget and the overall economic climate, which affects airline traffic and demand for new commercial aircraft. The profitability of individual companies depends on technical expertise and the ability to accurately price long-term contracts. Large companies enjoy economies of scale in design, manufacturing, and purchasing. Small companies can compete effectively by concentrating on selected components and parts manufacturing for particular prime contractors. Increasingly, small companies are developing system integration capabilities as large firms outsource more aspects of contracts. Production of aircraft and major aircraft components is highly automated: average revenue per employee is over US$300,000. Aerospace Products and Parts Manufacture Industry Forecast The output of US aerospace products is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 7% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 Textron (HQ) Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer Lewis B. Campbell 40 Westminster St. Providence, RI 02903-2596 United States Phone: 401-421-2800 Fax: 401-457-2220 http://www.textron.com

Textron Subsidiaries AAI Corporation Bell Helicopter Textron Inc. Cessna Aircraft Company


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AA, CVX, CXSP, GIS, MMM, TXP  

AA, CVX, CXSP, GIS, MMM, TXP

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