May 26, 2009
Alert Stock Talk for the 1st Time looks at: Open Table Inc (OPEN), Itron Inc (ITRI), Tata Motors Ltd (TTM), Fuqi International Inc (FUQI), Modavox Inc (MDVX), Diedrich Coffee (DDRX), and Microchip Technology (MCHP)
The Recap of the Week ending May 22, 2009 in the US Stock Market Market capped the week off with deterioration in bullish sentiment. On a technical level, the DJIA is building a strong base of support for 8,250, for the week up 8.68 (0.10%). S&P 500 is holding strong at 887 but closed off the week ahead 4.12 (0.47), and 50 day EMA has gradually moved up to 866. NAS composite index closed at 1,692 up 11.82 (0.71%) on the week. Huge week for the 10 year Treasury bond yields. Prices were driven down due lack of demand and a whisper of America’s credit rating in question. The yield was pressured up to 3.44% which hasn’t been seen since 2003. Short term yields have been tacked close to zero yield for institutional purposes (money market funds and securities with terms 60 days or less). The VIX (Volatility Index), which is traditionally considered anxiety or fear barometer of the market has begun to edge up to 31.32. The VIX is still holding at normal levels (20-30) however just barely. Crude Oil had an interesting week as the market considers long-term bullish trend for Crude Oil is real and alive. Large Oil giants ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Total, and Royal Dutch Shell are for the most part moving forward with plans on capital investment in exploration and development. This will lead to the potential for a larger share of the of the world’s market and profitability in operations. Gold closed up on the week on the heels of a lower US$ over all whispers of inflation. Interest in Gold comes up even as buying on the premise of it being a safe haven has lessened. Baltic Dry Index, a barometer of shipping costs for commodities such as coal, grain, fertilizer and iron ore has made a big comeback after hitting 22 year low in December 2008. The index is up 53% from its lows and 1.6% on Thursday. This suggests demand for global economic activity has made a modest rebound. Note: the Baltic Dry Index is an extremely volatile and poor economic indicator of growth (decay). Featured Stocks to Review for the week on Stock Talk Open Table Inc (OPEN), Itron Inc (ITRI), Tata Motors Ltd (TTM), Fuqi International Inc (FUQI), Modavox Inc (MDVX), Diedrich Coffee (DDRX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Microchip Technology (MCHP)
Open Table Inc (OPEN) May 26, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s have a look at Open Table Inc (OPEN), is an Jewelry manufacturer based in China, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Friday’s (May 22, 2009) market action is Bearish: in the near term Bearish, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bearish.
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Open Table Shares jump following IPO http://research.tdameritrade.com/public/stocks/news/story.asp?docKey=401812027CC6B5F944DF846895C4626F6E78-3QNBDTLJHHBKNI33NV3ALA5943&searchCategory=latest
Fridayâ€™s Market Action Close 28.71 -3.18 (9.97%)
The near term support is holding at 28.22 and resistance at 30.04.The 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 28.71. This is Open Table Inc (OPEN): a leading provider of free, real-time online restaurant reservations for diners and reservation and guest management solutions for restaurants. The OpenTable network delivers the convenience of online restaurant reservations to diners and the operational benefits of a computerized reservation book to restaurants. OpenTable has more than 10,000 restaurant customers, and since its inception in 1998, has seated more than 100 million diners around the world. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California, and the OpenTable service is available throughout the United States, as well as in Canada, Japan, Mexico, and parts of Europe Competitive Landscape The performance is subject to worldwide economic conditions and their impact on levels of consumer spending, which have recently deteriorated significantly and may remain depressed, or be subject to further deterioration, for the foreseeable future. Some of the factors having an impact on discretionary consumer spending include general economic conditions, unemployment, consumer debt, reductions in net worth based on recent severe market declines, residential real estate and mortgage markets, taxation, energy prices, interest rates, consumer confidence and other macroeconomic factors. Open Table Inc Chief Executive Officer and President: Jeffrey D Jordan 799 Market Street San Francisco, CA 94103 United States Phone: 415-344-4200
Modavox Inc (MDVX) May 26, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today letâ€™s have a look at Modavox Inc (MDVX), the US a producer of audio video streaming products
on the internet, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Friday’s (May 22, 2009) market action is Bullish: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Very Bullish.
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: SEC Form 8-K for MODAVOX INC http://biz.yahoo.com/e/090521/mdvx.ob8-k.html Friday’s Market Action Close 3.44
+ 0.14 (4.24%)
Volume 24,688/shrs (Light)
May 18, a Bearish Engulfing pattern completed development. May 21, significant selling pressure (over 10% drop in stock price) was overcome in late day trading near term resistance is 3.61, support at 3.26, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 3.16. This is Modavox, Inc (MDVX): the owner of the “Method and System for Adding Function to a Webpage”, their first US patent the “BoomBox Radio” trademark catapulted the business to the front line of the industry. The customized communications company is a pioneer in Internet broadcasting, producing and syndicating online audio and video, offering innovative, effective, and comprehensive
online tools for reaching targeted niche communities worldwide. Through patented Modavox technology, Modavox delivers content straight to desktops and Internet-enabled devices. Modavox provides managed access for live and on-demand Internet radio broadcasting, e-learning and rich media advertising. They currently boast nearly 100 private and corporate institutions as clients. Their managed sites draw in 5 millions unique visitors per month. Internet radio accounts for 75% of total revenue, and interactive media for 25%. The Competitive Landscape The success of this industry is in the ability of the company engaged in operations to monetize online content. Content monetization is achieved through targeted advertising, platform, subscription, and ecommerce fees along with the sale of highly developed content publishing and distribution software products. The ability of the firm to align their services with consumers needs is one part of the equation to create a profitable business model online. The internet is fiercely competitive and those who stand out as successful traditionally benefit from high margins of profitability due to the nature of business. Software and Programming Industry Performance Year to date through April 24th, the Internet Software & Services index was up 23.8%, versus 3.7% decline in the S&P 1500. In 2008, the index fell 54.2% versus a 38.2% drop for the 1500. Modavox Inc. Chairman and Chief Director: Shelly J Meyers 4636 East University Drive Phoenix, AZ 85034 Phone: 602-648-6080 http://www.modavox.com
Deidrich Coffee (DDRX) May 26, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today letâ€™s look at Deidrich Coffee (DDRX), is a wholesaler and retailer of specialty coffee, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Mondayâ€™s (May 22, 2009) market action is Very Bullish, in the near term Very Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Bullish.
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Diedrich Coffee Completes Transition to Premier Roaster and Wholesaler http://sev.prnewswire.com/food-beverages/20090514/LA1719814052009-1.html
Fridayâ€™s Market Action Close 11.49, +1.48 (10.37%)
Volume 168,975/shrs (Below Avg)
There is a slight gap on the open May 20th 11.25/11.36, the near term resistance is 13.79, support at 16.23, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 15.75. This is Diedrich Coffee Inc (DDRX): is a specialty coffee roaster, wholesaler and retailer. The Company's brands include Diedrich Coffee, Gloria Jean's and Coffee People. The majority of its revenue is generated from wholesale customers located across the United States. Its wholesale operation sells a variety of whole bean and ground coffee, as well as single serve coffee products through a network of office coffee service (OCS) distributors, chain and independent restaurants, coffeehouses, other hospitality operators and specialty retailers. Revenues from 2007 to 2008 increased 26.57%, and 3 year
annualized return on investment is 59.1% (annualized), 5 year 32.1%. Competitive Landscape Demand for services is highly correlated with demand from consumers to spend on food prepared outside of the home. Spending is traditionally a function of consumer current discretionary income. The current recession has hit consumer pockets hard by through various measures. As the economy speeds up the long-term prospect of consumers spending a larger portion of their wealth on food prepared outside of the home is good. Eating at a restaurant saves on time and provides convenience to utilize one’s time more effectively. Profitability will also be distinguished by a company’s ability to manage fixed investments more wisely such as warehouses for inventory and distribution centers. Restaurant Sector Performance Year to date, through April 24th, the S&P Food Distributors Index fell 1.7% versus a 3.7% decline of the S&P 1500 Index. The sub-industry index dropped 26.2% in 2008, versus a 38.2% fall for the S&P 1500. Diedrich Coffee Inc. Chairman and Chief Director: Paul C Heeschen 28 Executive Park Irvine, CA 92614 United States Phone: 949-260-1600 Fax: 949-260-1611 http://www.diedrich.com
Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) May 26, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Microchip Technology, is a coal company, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Friday’s (May 22, 2009) market action is Bearish, in the near term Bearish, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bearish.
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Microchip Technology Unveils Industries First Operational Amplifiers with On-Chip, One Shot Calibration Circuit http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/? ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090518006054&newsLang=en
Friday’s Market Action Close 34.67 + 0.50 (2.44%)
Volume 5,325,948/shrs (Below Avg)
There is a DOJI on May 19-20 and one Gap open down a 36.58/34.54, the near term resistance is 21.83, support at 20.98 and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 21.01. This is Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP): the Company is a pioneer in providing affordable personal computing throughout the world. In PC’s, the company commands the number one position worldwide with a 19% share of the market. 2008 Revenues came approximately 78% from products and 22% from services. 1st quarter 2009, approximately 30% of revenues came from services. 70% of HP’s customer
base is located outside of the US. It operates in seven segments which are grouped together to form Technology Solutions Group: enterprise storage and servers, HP services, and HP software. HPQ has had a number of important improvements including a jump in ROE of 21.5% 08’ from 19% 07’ and 16.5% 06’. Competitive Landscape Demand for this industry is driven by end market sales for products such as computers, cell phones, and other consumer electronics. Profitability is also a function of manufactures ability to manage inventory levels. Manufactures that maintain close relationships with their vendors will benefit from better inventory management. Pricing is also affected by near term industry glut in inventory stores; it will stay under pressure until inventory burns off later in the cycle. There is opportunity for smaller manufactures to capture market share as larger firms spend much of their efforts in managing existing operations. Sub-Industry Index: Semiconductors Year to date through April 24th, the S&P Semiconductor sub-industry index rose 14.2%, versus 3.7% drop for the S&P 1500. Microchip Technology (MCHP) Chairman and Director: Steve Sanghi 2355 West Chandler Boulevard Chandler, AZ 85224 United States Phone: 480-792-7200 Fax: 480-899-9210 http://www.microchip.com
Itron Inc (ITRI) May 26, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s have a look at Itron Inc (ITRI), provides a portfolio of products for utilities for energy and water markets globally, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Friday’s (May 22, 2009) market
action is Bullish: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Bullish.
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Itron CEO Emphasizes Strong Support for NIST Smart Grid Standards Interoperability Initiative http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/? ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090518006204&newsLang=en Fridayâ€™s Market Action Close 56.78 -1.19 (2.05%)
Volume 505,162/shrs (Light)
The near term resistance is 60.19 and support is holding at 55.97.The 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 56.78 This is Itron Inc (ITRI): is a leading technology provider to the global energy and water industries. Itron is the world's leading provider of intelligent metering, data collection and utility software solutions, with nearly 8,000 utilities worldwide relying on our technology to optimize the delivery and use of energy and water. Their products include electricity, gas, water and heat meters, data collection and communication
systems, including automated meter reading (AMR) and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI); meter data management and related software applications; as well as project management, installation, and consulting services. Competitive Landscape Demand for the industry is closely correlated with demand for electronic manufacturing services (EMS). The US and Chinese governments are dedicating significant portions of economic recovery bill’s to the restructuring of basic electric utility grids. Legislation on energy policy in the US has a significant effect on the demand for the niche industry. For example, U.S. Energy Policy Act in August of 2005 required utilities to offer their customers time-based rates. Such legislation increases the long-term viability of the industry. Itron Inc (ITRI) Chief Executive Officer and President: Malcolm Unsworth 2111 N Molter Road Liberty Lake, WA 99019 United States Phone: 509-924-9900 Fax: 509-891-3355 http://www.itron.com
Tata Motors (TTM) May 26, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s have a look at Itron Inc (ITRI), is an automobile manufacturer based in India, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Friday’s (May 22, 2009) market action is Bullish: in the near
term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Bullish.
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Tata Motorsâ€™ Nano Demand not enough to ease funding fears. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nano-response-raises-concern-for-tata-motors
Fridayâ€™s Market Action Close 9.61 +0.06 (0.63%)
Volume 1,404,391/shrs (Light)
The near term resistance is 9.86 and support is holding at 9.06.The 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 9.61 This is Tata Motors Ltd (TTA): is an India-based company which is the largest member of the Tata Group of companies and has been manufacturing vehicles since 1954. The company believes that it is the leading commercial automotive vehicle manufacturer in India by revenue, and the second largest manufacturer of cars and utility vehicles in India (measured by unit volume sold). Their most attractive
prospects for future growth is a new vehicle called the Nano which sells for $2000 (US$). Locally, the bus segment of their product mix is expanding rapidly. There is potential for expansion in the bus segment internationally. June of 2008, Tata motors purchased Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford Motor for 2.3 billion US dollars. Competitive Landscape The general sub-industry outlook is challenging in the near term due to the pressure on governments to cut back on infrastructure projects. Credit crisis has left many manufacturers idle if not out of business as a result of sudden halt in capital expenditures. Global demand for affordable forms of transportation will be strong as a result of global industrialization trend occurring in third world nations. Manufacturers benefit from their ability to automate operations over the long-term. Highly automated industries suffer from the fix costs of developing competitive advantages as a cost leader. Itron Inc (ITRI) Chief Executive Officer and President: Malcolm Unsworth 2111 N Molter Road Liberty Lake, WA 99019 United States Phone: 509-924-9900 Fax: 509-891-3355 http://www.itron.com
Fuqi International (FUQI) May 26, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today letâ€™s have a look at Fuqi International Inc (FUQI), is a Jewelry manufacturer based in China, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Fridayâ€™s (May 22, 2009) market action is Very Bullish: in the near term Very Bullish, mid-term Very Bullish, and long term Bullish.
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: FUQI International Reports First Quarter 2009 Financial Results http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/showFilingOutline.go?symbol=FUQI&cp=on&name=FUQI %20INTERNATIONAL,%20INC.:%2010-K/A&link=http %3A//quotemedia.10kwizard.com/contents.xml%3Fipage%3D6320634
Fridayâ€™s Market Action Close 9.61 +0.06 (0.63%)
Volume 1,404,391/shrs (Light)
The near term support is holding at 9.72.The 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 10.28 This is Fuqi International, Inc. (FUQI): is a designer of precious metal jewelry in China, developing, promoting, and selling a range of products in the Chinese luxury goods market. Revenues have grown at an annualized rate of 59.25% from 2004 to ending calendar year of 2008. The Company's products consist of a range of styles and designs made from gold and other precious metals, such as platinum and Karat gold (K-gold). The Company also produces jewelry items that contain diamonds and other precious
stones on a custom-order basis. Its design database contains over 30,000 products. The Company operates through its wholly owned subsidiary Fuqi International Holdings Co., Ltd. (Fuqi BVI) and its wholly owned subsidiary, Shenzhen Fuqi Jewelry Co., Ltd. (Fuqi China). As of December 31, 2008, the Company had 69 jewelry retail counters and stores in China. Competitive Landscape The Chinese Jewelry industry is seemingly more resilient to the economic downturn. Cultural differences have played a factor in creating strength in an industry which traditionally leads the curve in variance in growth due to economic conditions. Chinese manufacturers benefit from competitive advantages in cheap labor and soft labor laws. Retail businesses traditionally have higher margins in the jewelry industry. As growth plateaus in the wholesale segment of the industry, retail traditionally is the next logical area of growth. Fuqi International Ltd. Chief Executive Officer and Chairman: Yu Kwai Chong 5/F., Block 1 Cui Zhu Road North, SHZ 518019 China Phone: 775-258-0188
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Up-date 2 May 26, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Letâ€™s look at Johnson & Johnson (JNJ); the US diversified healthcare Giant, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Fridayâ€™s (May 22, 2009) market action is Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-
term Neutral, and long term Very Bullish.
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Consumer, health coalition pushes J&J to remove trace amounts of chemicals from baby products http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Consumer-group-pushes-JampJ-apf-15340361.html?.v=5 Friday’s Market Action Close 54.77
There are two Gaps open up between Apr 30 and May 4, 2009 at 51.09/52.60, the near term resistance is 55.68 support at 54.34, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 53.61. This is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): The Company engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of various products in the health care field worldwide. Its Consumer segment provides products used in baby care, skin care, oral care, wound care, and women’s health care fields, as well as nutritional and over-the-counter pharmaceutical products under JOHNSON’S, AVEENO, CLEAN
& CLEAR, NEUTROGENA, RoC, LUBRIDERM, LISTERINE, REACH, CAREFREE, STAYFREE, SPLENDA, TYLENOL, SUDAFED, ZYRTEC, MOTRIN IB, and PEPCID AC names. The company’s Pharmaceutical segment offers products in various therapeutic areas, such as anti-infective, antipsychotic, cardiovascular, contraceptive, dermatology, gastrointestinal, hematology, immunology, neurology, oncology, pain management, urology, and virology. Its products include REMICADE, a biologic to treat Crohn’s disease, ankylosing spondylitis, psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ulcerative colitis, and used to treat rheumatoid arthritis; TOPAMAX, for adjunctive and monotherapy use in epilepsy, as well as for treating migraines; PROCRIT that stimulates red blood cell production; RISPERDAL oral, a medication to treat the symptoms of schizophrenia, bipolar mania, and irritability associated with autistic behavior in indicated patients; RISPERDAL CONSTA, an injectable, and INVEGATM Extended-Release tablets to treat schizophrenia; LEVAQUIN and FLOXIN, anti-infective products; CONCERTA, a product for treating attention deficit hyperactivity disorder; ACIPHEX/PARIET, a proton pump inhibitor; and DURAGESIC/Fentanyl Transdermal, a treatment for chronic pain. Johnson & Johnson’s Medical Devices and Diagnostics segment offers circulatory disease management, orthopaedic joint reconstruction and spinal care and sports medicine, surgical care and women’s health, minimally invasive surgical, blood glucose monitoring and insulin delivery, and diagnostic products, as well as disposable contact lenses. The company was founded in 1886. Competitive Landscape The industry is marked by rapid advances in scientific knowledge that produce ever-more effective medicines. Profitability is determined mainly by the ability to discover new drugs. The industry is dominated by the large manufacturers/marketers that manufacture drugs, have large research operations, and also have large clinical testing, marketing, and distribution capabilities. Small companies are mainly research operations or manufacturers of non-prescription products. Because of the high value of the product, average revenue per employee is a very high US$600,000. Pharmaceutical Manufacture and Sale Industry Forecast The output of US drug manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 8% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 Johnson & Johnson (HQ) Chairman, Chief Executive. Officer: William C. Weldon One Johnson & Johnson Plaza New Brunswick, NJ 08933 United States Phone: 732-524-0400 Fax: 732-214-0332 http://www.jnj.com
Johnson & Johnson Subsidiaries Animas Corporation BabyCenter, LLC Centocor, Inc.
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