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May 18, 2009

Alert: VIX, fell further after ending Tuesday at its lowest level since September 2008.

Recap of Wednesday’s Stock Market Action Major US indexes close in the Red after the Federal Reserve cuts forecast for economic growth. The DJIA fell about 50 pts (0.6%), after gaining more than 100 pts early in the session, the S&P 500 index fell (0.5%) and the leading NAS composite closed minus 0.4% on the day. The overall tone remains relatively bullish. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, fell further after ending Tuesday at its lowest level since September. A Bullish bias is supporting the major US indexes over the last few session and gave some issues strong gains on Wednesday. The over tone if the market is positive supported by gains in some commodities and advances in financial stocks. The bond market is forecasting a contraction in real GDP this year, the April FOMC meeting minutes pointed in that direction too. However, a recovery in sales and production is still expected to begin in the second half of this year. The US$ slid more than 1% against a basket of major foreign currencies, Gold prices advanced 1.2% to settle at seven-week high of US$937.40 oz. as metals and mining stocks climbed + 1.0%. Congress passed a bill Wednesday that imposes greater restrictions on the credit card industry for raising fees and interest rates. The approval came despite strong objections by banking industry advocates, who say it could result in tightened credit to Americans. Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.19% from 3.24% Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. Most markets in Asia finished in the Green, and in Europe, major markets were mixed.

Featured Stocks to Watch Today As Earnings Season Winds Down American International Group, Inc. (AIG), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), The Home Depot Inc.JP Morgan Chase (JPM), McDonald’s Corporation (MCD), Procter & Gamble Co. (PG), and Target Corporation (TGT).


American International Group, Inc. (AIG) Up-date 19 May 21, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s have a look at American International Group, Inc. (AIG), one of the World's largest insurance firms, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Wednesday’s (May 20, 2009) market action is Bullish; in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Very Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: In the Apple Doghouse http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/20/apple-iphone-yakapp-technology-wireless-apple.html? partner=yahootix Wednesday’s Market Action Close 125.87

- 1.58

Volume 13,836,600/shrs


There is a Homing Pigeon on May 8 and two Gaps open up between Mar 16, and May 5, 2009 at . 51/1.56, the near term resistance is 2.01, support is 1.74, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 1.42. This is American International Group, Inc. (AIG): the Company through its subsidiaries provides insurance and financial services in the United States and internationally. It operates in four segments: General Insurance, Life Insurance and Retirement Services, Financial Services, and Asset Management. The General Insurance segment underwrites various business insurance products, including large commercial or industrial property insurance, excess liability, inland marine, environmental, workers compensation, and excess and umbrella coverage’s. This segment also offers various specialized forms of insurance, such as aviation, accident and health, equipment breakdown, directors and officers liability, difference-in-conditions, kidnap-ransom, export credit and political risk, and professional errors and omissions coverage’s. In addition, it provides property and casualty reinsurance products to insurers; automobile insurance products; residential mortgage guaranty insurance products; and second-lien and private student loan guaranty insurance products. The Life Insurance and Retirement Services segment offers individual and group life, payout annuities, endowment, and accident and health policies, as well as retirement savings products consisting of fixed and variable annuities. The Financial Services segment provides aircraft and equipment leasing, capital market transactions, consumer finance, and insurance premium financing. The Asset Management segment operations comprise investment-related services and investment products, including institutional and retail asset management, broker-dealer services, and spread-based investment products. The company was founded in 1967 and is based in New York, New York. Competitive Landscape Demand is driven by demographics and commercial transactions. The profitability of individual companies depends on effective marketing and on the ability to accurately estimate future payments. Large companies have big economies of scale in administration and in access to capital. Small companies can compete successfully by specializing in particular products or industries. Insurance Carriers Industry Forecast The output of US insurance, which is an indicator for insurance carriers, is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 1 % between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 American International Group, Inc. (HQ) Chairman of AIG Investments and Chief Exec. of AIG Investments Win Jay Neuger CFA 70 Pine Street New York, NY 10270 United States Phone: 212-770-3099 Fax: 212-425-3499 http://www.aig.com AIG Subsidiaries

21st Century Insurance Company AIG American General Life Companies AIG Annuity Insurance Company

JP Morgan Chase & Company (JPM) Up-date 19


May 21, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at JP Morgan Chase (JPM), the # 3 financial services firm in the USA from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Wednesday’s (May 20, 2009) market action is Bullish: in the near term Neutral: mid-term Bullish: and long term Very Bullish:

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Greenspan: US economy improved, banks need funds http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSP1641120090521?rpc=44 Tuesday’s Market Action Close

34.55 -- 1.26

Volume 76,170,044/shrs

There is a Bearish Harami on May 5 and a Gap open up on Apr 9 at 27.83/30.02, the near term resistance is 34.99, support at 23.53, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 31.68.


This is JP Morgan Chase & Company (JPM): JPM is the #3 financial services firm in the USA behind Citi and Bank of America with more than 3,000 bank branches and growing. It is also among the nation's top mortgage lenders, automobile loan writers, and credit card issuers. JPM is also into investment banking and asset management. The company's subsidiaries include JPMorgan Private Bank and institutional investment manager JPMorgan Asset Management with US$1.6T in assets under management. In 2008 JPMorgan Chase bought Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual. The Competitive Landscape Demand for banking services in the USA is closely tied to economic activity and the level of interest rates. The profitability of individual banks depends on their marketing abilities, efficient operations, and good risk management. Large economies of scale exist in some segments of the banking industry, which has encouraged industry consolidation. Smaller banks can compete successfully in segments where customer service or knowledge of the local market is more important. The industry is capital intensive and highly automated: annual revenue per employee is about US$300,000. Banks and Credit Unions Industry Forecast The output of banks and credit unions in the USA is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 5.1% 2008 and 2013. JP Morgan Chase & Company (HQ) Chairman, President, and CEO James (Jamie) Dimon

270 Park Ave. New York, NY 10017 United States Phone: 212-270-6000 Fax: 212-270-1648 http://www.jpmorganchase.com

JPMorgan Chase Subsidiaries Bear Stearns Merchant Banking Bear, Stearns Securities Corp. Bear Wagner Specialists LLC Chase Co (formally Washington Mutual)

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Up-date 12 May 21, 2009


Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), a global leader in M&A and Securities underwriting, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Wednesday’s (May 20, 2009) market action is Bullish: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Very Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Wednesday’s Market Action Close

Volume 21,374,492/shrs

There are a Bearish Engulfing Candle on May 19 and three Gaps open up between Nov 24, 2008 and May 18 and Mar 11, 2009 at 85.45/136.78, the near term resistance is 137,94, support at 130.73, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 100.76. This is Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS): A global leader in mergers and acquisitions advice and securities underwriting, Goldman offers a gamut of investment banking and asset management services to corporate and government clients as well as institutional and individual investors. It owns Goldman


Sachs Execution & Clearing, one of the largest market makers on the NYSE, and is also a leading market maker for fixed income products, currencies, and commodities. In September 2008 the Federal Reserve mandated that Goldman Sachs become a bank holding company, along with fellow investment bank Morgan Stanley. The Competitive Landscape Demand is driven by economic activity that results in company mergers, acquisitions, or public financing. The profitability of an investment bank depends on its ability to accurately assess both the value of a business transaction and the readiness of the market to buy the attendant debt or equity. Big firms have an advantage because large customer transactions require firms with substantial financial resources. Small investment banks can compete by participating in syndications and operating in regional markets or specialized industries. Although labor-intensive, the industry produces very high value: average annual revenue per employee at large firms is close to US$1MM. Investment Banking Industry Forecast The output of US securities, commodity contracts, and investments, an indicator for investment banking, is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4.1% between 2008 and 2013 . Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (HQ) Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer, Managing Director: Lloyd C. Blankfein 85 Broad Street 17th Floor New York, NY 10004 United States Phone: 212-902-1000 Fax: 212-902-3000 http://www.goldmansachs.com

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Up-date 5 May 21, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at McDonald’s Corporation (MCD), the world's #1 fast-food company, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Wednesday’s (May 20, 2009) market action is Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Neutral.


**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Pops & Drops: McDonald's, Arch Coal... http://www.cnbc.com/id/30847956/site/14081545?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo Wednesday’s Market Action Close 56.25

- 2.38

Volume 11, 528,682/shrs

There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on May 7, and one Gap open up May 8, 2009 at 54.37/54.31, the near term resistance is 56.61, support at 55.06, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 54.59. This is McDonald’s Corporation (MCD): "McDonald's is the world's #1 fast-food company by sales, with more than 31,000 restaurants serving burgers and fries in 120 countries, with about 14,000 Golden Arches locations are in the USA. The popular chain is well-known for its Big Macs, Quarter Pounders, and Chicken McNuggets. Most of its outlets are free-standing units, but McDonald's also has many quickservice kiosk units located in airports and retail areas. Each unit gets its food and packaging from approved suppliers and uses standardized procedures to ensure that a Big Mac purchased in Pittsburgh tastes the same as one bought in Beijing, I lived in Beijing for 4 years and it’s true. More than 75% of its restaurants are run by franchisees or affiliates.


The Competitive Landscape Demographics and personal income drive demand. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient operations, effective marketing, and the ability to provide fast service. Large companies have advantages in purchasing, financing, and marketing. Small companies can compete by offering unique products or serving a local market. The industry is highly labor-intensive: average annual revenue per worker is just under US$40,000. McDonald's Corporation (HQ) Chairman; Andrew J. (Andy) McKenna Sr.

2111 McDonalds Dr. Oak Brook, IL 60523 United States Phone: 630-623-3000 Fax: 630-623-5004 Toll Free: 800-244-6227 http://www.mcdonalds.com

McDonald's Subsidiaries McDonald's Restaurants Limited Ronald McDonald House Charities, Inc.

The Home Depot, Inc (HD) Up-date 3 May 21, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at The Home Depot Inc. (HD, the World’s Biggest Home Fixer Upper Store, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Wednesday’s (May 20, 2009) market action is Neutral, in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral.


**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Upgrades & Downgrades on the Day http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=HD Wednesday’s Market Action Close 23.93

-. 80

Volume 31 447,900/shrs

There is a DOJI on May 15 and one Gap open up on April 2, 2009 at 23.89/24.24, the near term resistance is 24.91, support at 23.52 and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 24.17. This is The Home Depot, Inc. (HD): The Company operates as a home improvement retailer primarily in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The Home Depot stores offer building materials, home improvement supplies and lawn and garden products that are sold to do-it-yourself customers, do-it-for-me customers, home improvement contractors, trades people and building maintenance professionals. The company also operates EXPO Design Center stores that provide products and services primarily related to design and renovation projects. As of January 26, 2009, it operated 2,274 retail stores in 50 states in the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, 10 Canadian provinces, Mexico, and China. The company was founded in 1978 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia.


Competitive Landscape The industry is driven mainly by residential real estate construction and renovation. Large chains have expanded rapidly in recent years by focusing on the home improvement market, with contractor sales as a sideline. Smaller companies, often family-owned lumberyards, can compete effectively by catering to contractors (for whom price is less important than other services), through a wider range of specialty products and services, and by serving areas unattractive to the big-box stores because of limited customer concentration. Building Material Supply Industry Forecast The value of US private and public construction of buildings, which is a driver for building material supplies, is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 5% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 The Home Depot, Inc. (HQ) Exec. Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer: Francis S. Blake 2455 Paces Ferry Road NW Atlanta, GA 30339 United States Phone: 770-433-8211 Fax: 770-431-2685 http://www.homedepot.com

Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) Up-date 2 May 21, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Procter & Gamble Co. (PG), the World's #1 maker of household products, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Wednesday (May 20, 2009) market action is: Bullish, in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Bullish,


.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Don't Sweat Today's Selling http://secure2.thestreet.com/cap/login/rm_mbp_yho_w-ads.jsp? cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=PREMIUM&cm_ite=003190&flowid=7f63585510&url=http://www.thestreet.co m/p/_yahoo/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10503875.html Wednesday’s Market Action Close 54.02.

+ 1.07

Volume 15,921,294/shrs

There is a Gap open up on up on May 20, 2009 at 53.51/53.56, the near term resistance is 56.75, support at 53.53, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 55.54 This is Procter & Gamble Co. (PG): Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides branded consumer goods products worldwide. The company operates in three global business units (GBU): Beauty, Health and Well-Being, and Household Care. The Beauty GBU consists of Beauty and Grooming segments. Beauty segment provides cosmetics, deodorants, hair care, personal cleansing, prestige fragrances, and skin care products primarily under Head & Shoulders, Olay, Pantene, CoverGirl, and Wella brands. Grooming segment offers blades and razors; electric hair removal devices; face and shave


products; and home appliances under Braun, Fusion, Gillette, and Mach 3 brand names. The Health and Well-Being GBU includes Health Care, and Snacks, Coffee, and Pet Care segments. Health Care segment provides feminine care, oral care, personal health care, and pharmaceuticals primarily under Actonel, Always, Crest, and Oral-B brands. Snacks, Coffee, and Pet Care segment offers snacks, such as potato chips under Pringles brand name and pet care products under Iams and Eukanuba brands. The Household Care GBU consists of Fabric Care and Home Care, and Baby Care and Family Care segments. Fabric Care and Home Care segment offers fabric care products, including laundry products and fabric conditioners; home care products, such as dish care, surface cleaners, and air fresheners; and batteries. This segment offers its products under Ariel, Dawn, Downy, Duracell, Gain, and Tide brand names. Baby Care and Family Care segment provides diapers, training pants, baby wipes, bath tissues, facial tissues, and paper towels primarily under Bounty, Charmin, and Pampers brands. The company sells its products in approximately 180 countries through mass merchandisers, grocery stores, membership club stores, drug stores, department stores, salons, and high-frequency stores. P&G was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio. Competitive Landscape Demand is driven by population growth and consumer preferences. The profitability of individual companies depends on product innovation, effective sales and marketing, and efficient operations. Large companies have scale advantages in purchasing, manufacturing, distribution, and marketing. Small companies can compete effectively by offering specialized products. The industry is capital-intensive: average annual revenue per worker is over US$600,000. Personal Care Products Manufacturing Industry Forecast The output of US toiletries manufacturing is forecast to decline at an annual compounded rate of 1% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 Procter & Gamble Co. (HQ) Exec. Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer and President: Alan Lafley One Procter & Gamble Plaza Cincinnati, OH 45202 United States Phone: 513-983-1100 Fax: 513-983-4381 http://www.pg.com

Procter & Gamble Subsidiaries The Dover Wipes Company Garrity Industries, Inc. Graham Webb International, Inc.

Target Corporation (TGT) Up-date 1 May 21, 2009 Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. Analyst Today let’s look at Target Corporation (TGT), The USA’s #2 discount chain (behind Wal-Mart). from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Wednesday’s (May 20, 2009) market action is Bullish: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Very Bullish, and long term Very Bullish.


**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com Latest News: Target's Earnings Fall, but Stabilization Is Seen http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124282356584639069.html?ru=yahoo#mod=yahoo_hs Wednesday’s Market Action

Close 42.94

+ 1.00

Volume 21,614,700/shrs

There is a DOJI on May 15 and one Gap open up on May 20, 2009 at 42.23/42.89, the near term resistance is 41.80, support at 41.80, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 36.22. This is the Target Corporation (TGT): The USA’s #2 discount chain (behind Wal-Mart) now operates about 1,680 Target and SuperTarget stores in 48 states, as well as an online business called Target.com. Target and its larger grocery-carrying incarnation, SuperTarget, have carved out a niche by offering more upscale, fashion-forward merchandise than rivals Wal-Mart and Kmart. After years of struggling to turn around its Marshall Field's and Mervyns department stores divisions, the discounter sold them both in 2004. Target also owns apparel supplier The Associated Merchandising Corp. and issues Target Visa and its proprietary Target Card. Competitive Landscape


Population growth and consumer spending drive demand. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient supply chain management, effective merchandising, and competitive pricing. Large companies dominate the industry, and enjoy advantages in purchasing, distribution, and marketing. Average annual revenue per worker is US$175,000. Discount Stores Industry Forecast The output of the USA’s retail industry, which includes discount stores, is forecast to increase at an annual compounded rate of 2 percent between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008 Target Corp. (HQ) Gregg W. Steinhafel Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer and Pres 1000 Nicollet Mall Minneapolis, MN 55403 United States Phone: 612-304-6073 Fax: 612-370-5502 http://www.targetcorp.com

Target Subsidiaries The Associated Merchandising Corporation Target Commercial Interiors, Inc. Target Receivables Corporation

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AAPL GS, HD, JPM, MCD, PG and TGT