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12 November, 2013

International Coal Market

International Monthly Average Coal Price Movement (in USD)

Opportunistic South African coal price attracted buyer, resulted Coal price boost

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Jul-12

ber, booked in September when prices were on the lowest side.

Oct-12

price is followed by the over booked quantity for delivery in Octo-

Sep-12

While discussing with market traders SteelMint learned that, rise in

92 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70

Aug-12

75/MT in starting of October, 2013.

Dec-12

Australia (6000 NAR)

At the end of October, 2013 South African coal rose to almost 15% to USD 84-86/MT for 6000 NAR Kcal/kg coal, which were at USD 73-

Mar-13

bullish owing to increased demand from Europe and Asian market.

Nov-12

From the starting of October, 2013 South African coal prices were

Oct-12

Indonesian Coal Export Increased but Prices Dropped

Sep-12

European Coal Demand Boosted Coal Prices

Jul-12

RBCT Exported 7.2 MnT of Coal to World

90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 Aug-12

South African Coal Prices Rose to 15% in October

South Africa (6000 NAR)

One of the Mumbai based coal trader said, South African coal paper market becomes center of attraction of world wide traders and as

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Jul-12

pean buyers.

Nov-12

Most of the South African coal quantity was ordered by the Euro-

Oct-12

market to jump high.

38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 Sep-12

the physical and paper market trader booked a lot which made

Indonesia (3800 GAR)

Aug-12

on September South African coal prices touched ground, most of

The record buying has led South African leading port, Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) to export 7.2 MnT. The export figure of more

(Provisional Data)

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

has been noted.

Nov-12

However constant demand from Japan and other buying countries

Oct-12

proved as such, because no improved buying was seen from China.

Sep-12

During the same time Australian thermal coal prices have not im-

44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 Aug-12

increased by 30% M-o-M.

Indonesia (4200 GAR)

Jul-12

than 7 MnT is achieved second time in last 10 months and exports

1

Note: Coal prices available as on 31 October, 2013


12 November, 2013 Australian Thermal Coal (6000 NAR Kcal/kg) FOB New Castle basis rose by 1.2% (M-o-M) to USD 84/MT by the end of October, when the prices were dropped to USD 81/MT FOB in mid-October on dull demand. However, it picked up with positive sentiments of South African coal prices and reached at 84 by end-October.

International Non-Coking Coal FOB Prices (Average) Country/Grade October,2013 September,2013 August '2013 Indonesia refrained international coal prices upward movement Australia 6000 NAR 82.57 80 76.24 and remained stable. However it is noted that Indonesia’s ex- South Africa RB1 79.5 71.87 72.35 39.2 40.43 41.33 ports has been improved but the prices dipped building pres- Indonesia 4200 GAR Indonesia 3800 GAR 33.28 34.87 35.66 sure on miner’s profit. Note- Coal prices are as on 31 October, 2013

Domestic Coal Market India Produced 5.8 MnT less Coal than target in October. Extended monsoon effected coal production CIL Achieved 97% offtake target in FY14 CIL Signed 156 FSA’s out of 173 FSA’s in October,2013 78,000 MW power capacity will be catered by 173 FSA’s

Vessel Freight in USD/ Per MT (as on October 2013) Loading Country Discharging port Supramax Panamax South Africa ECI 22.5 17.5 South Africa WCI 23 18 Indonesia ECI 14.1 11.5 Indonesia WCI 18.1 14.5 Australia ECI 23.5 20

Cape 15 15.5 8.7 10.2 15.3

Indian state owned coal producer Coal India Ltd (CIL) missed its October, 2013 production target by difference of 5.8 MnT and achieved only 86% of its target as reported by CIL. CIL produced 35 MnT of coal during October and 235.5 MnT in FY14 (AprilOctober) which registered the growth of 3.6% Y-o-Y but lagging by 5% on achieving its annual target. Extended monsoon was the crucial factor which effected CIL production and its offtake. Heavy rains and Phailin storm in October has led to short production and contributed around 5.8MnT of short production and 6 MnT short offtake of coal. In October, 2013 offtake performance of CIL’s subsidiary

Country wise Coal Import -October' 2013

companies also missed its target by short offtake of 6 MnT of coal and achieved only 85% of its target. UNITED STATES, 235,322

AUSTRALIA, 2,788,830

CIL has achieved 97% coal offtake target to 259.8 MnT in

SOUTH AFRICA, 1,278,517

FY14 (April-October). During October, CIL signed 156 Fuel Supply Agreements (FSA), where as total 173 FSA’s to be signed. So far CIL has

MOZAMBIQUE, 49,243 UKRAINE, 37,377

INDONESIA, 5,149,122

CHINA, 97,402 RUSSIA, 55,190 CHILE, 79,000

signed 85% of FSA and remaining are under technical scan to move further. However it is instructed by the Cabinet Committee on Investment (CCI), who tracks the FSA’s development, CIL has already missed 2 deadline to sign pacts and instructed CIL to sign soonest. 173 FSA’s will be for the power projects with the total capacity of 78,000 MW, which is targeted to be met by FSA’s. 2 (Provisional Data)

Note: Coal Import data available as on 31 October, 2013


12 November, 2013

RECEIVERS SAIL

JSW

RINL TATA

BHUSAN

RECEIVERS TNEB AGARWAL

JSW

BHATIA

GANDHAR

(Provisional Data)

MAJOR RECEIVERS COKING COAL QUANTITY LOAD COUNTRY OCTOBER SEPTEMBER 872,449 852,269 UNKNOWN 426,153 200,000 AUSTRALIA 386,296 560,269 USA 60,000 60,000 SOUTH AFRICA UNKNOWN 32,000 660,018 212,571 UNKNOWN 595,110 68,075 AUSTRALIA 64,908 74,364 SOUTH AFRICA UNKNOWN 70,132 422,907 216,170 UNKNOWN 422,907 216,170 328,993 457,871 UNKNOWN 244,993 392,871 AUSTRALIA 8,400 65,000 318,413 152,125 UNKNOWN 258,000 79,338 AUSTRALIA 60,413 72,787

M-O-M CHANGES 2.4% 113.1% -31.1% 0.0% N/A 210.5% 774.2% -12.7% N/A 95.6% 95.6% -28.1% -37.6% -87.1% 109.3% 225.2% -17.0%

MAJOR RECEIVERS NON-COKING COAL QUANTITY LOAD COUNTRY OCTOBER SEPTEMBER 1,752,686 1,218,748 UNKNOWN 1,752,686 1,218,748 507,035 312,472 UNKNOWN 429,755 170,472 INDONESIA 77,280 142,000 432,870 476,494 SOUTH AFRICA 238,772 82,459 UNKNOWN 148,598 115,000 CANADA UNKNOWN 156,835 INDONESIA UNKNOWN 54,500 RUSSIA UNKNOWN 42,700 AUSTRALIA 45,500 25,000 391,318 95,995 INDONESIA 246,202 20,000 UNKNOWN 145,116 75,995 362,617 204,779 UNKNOWN 199,490 156,551 INDONESIA 163,127 48,228

M-O-M CHANGES 43.8% 43.8% 62.3% 152.1% -45.6% -9.2% 189.6% 29.2% N/A N/A N/A 82.0% 307.6% 1131.0% 91.0% 77.1% 27.4% 238.2% 3


12 November, 2013

India: 10 MnT of Coal imported in October, 2013 India has imported around 10 MnT of Coal including Coking and Non-coking coal in October, 2013. Out of the total imports, 67.9% is Non-coking coal, 30.11% is Coking coal and 1.9% is others. During October, SAIL was the country’s leading Coking coal importer with 0.87 MnT coal imports, which has increased 2.24% when compared with September, 2013. However another major coking coal importer, JSW has imported around 0.66 MnT Coking coal. TNEB’S Non-coking coal imports during October were around 1.7 MnT, majorly imported in East coast of India. Another major importer Agarwal coal has received around 0.50 MnT of Non-coking Coal.

Catagory wise FY'14 (July-October) Coal Import 12.52 10.35

14 12

Quantity in MnT

10.08

9.30

9.91 7.80

10

6.53

6.85

8

2.40

6

2.50

2.66

4 2

Total Import

Non Coking Coal

0.21

0.05

-

July-13

Other Coking coal Non Coking Coal Total Import

3.04

Coking coal

0.11

0.20 Other

Aug-13

Sep-13

July-13

Aug-13

210,405 2,402,583 9,908,166 12,521,154

49,873 2,504,712 7,795,377 10,349,961

Oct-13 Sep-13

Oct-13

106,258 2,663,391 6,531,698 9,301,347

196,692 3,035,383 6,846,030 10,078,106

Coal Import- Port Wise August, 2013

September, 2013

October,2013

2.0 1.6

1.69

1.58 1.2 1.1

0.83 0.7

0.93 0.6

1.2 0.7 0.70.77

0.9 0.6

0.61 0.6 0.6 0.45 0.1

(Provisional Data)

0.4 0.23

0.6

0.70.65

0.6 0.5 0.62

0.9

0.43 0.3 0.20.30 0.3 0.30.24 0.1 0.2

1.3

0.60.64 0.1 0.10.11

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12 November, 2013

Y-o-Y Coal Import 2012 Non-Coking coal import

2013 Non-Coking coal import

2012 Coking coal import

2013 Coking coal import

8.34

8.25

3.72 2.48

1.88

January

5.94

2.49 2.20

Feburary

1.88 1.78

March

2.52 2.38

2.12 2.20

April

May

6.23

5.29

5.08

4.75

4.10

2.95

8.00

6.75

7.10

6.76

6.43

9.91

8.61

2.86 1.96

June

2.72 2.40

July

5.73 3.15 2.35

August

6.53

2.35

2.66

September

6.85

2.42

3.04

October

(Provisional Data)

Report By: Ghanshyam Soni (Analyst) Email Id: ghanshyam@steelmint.com Shilpa Singh (Associate) For any query Please call on +91 9575100530

Raipur: #301, Jeevan Parisar, Rajeev Nagar, Behind Crystal Arcade, Raipur (C.G) - 492 007, India Tel: +91 771 2284888 +91 9575100430 Kolkata: 5th Floor, Vishvakarma Building, 86,Topsia Road, South-West Block, Kolkata (W.B) - 700 046, India Tel: +91 33 22852063

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Steelmint coal sample report  

A quick over view on the current coal market of India, global coal index prices and also including vessel expected at major ports.

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