Figure J-5 Revenue Risk with Expected Output Over 100 Years $7,000,000
$2014
$6,000,000 $5,000,000
5%-95%
$4,000,000
+/- 1 Std. Dev. Mean
$3,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $0
Year 1 = 2014
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
When output risk is included, the range of revenues increases even more. Figure J-6 illustrates the combined market price risk with output uncertainty. Figure J-6 Revenue Risk with Output Risk Over 100 Years $9,000,000 $8,000,000 $7,000,000
$2014
$6,000,000
5%-95%
$5,000,000
+/- 1 Std. Dev.
$4,000,000 $3,000,000
Mean $2,000,000 $1,000,000
Base Forecast
$0
10
20
30
40
60 50 Year 1 = 2014
70
80
90
100
When market price risk is combined with the output variation, the net present value of the revenue ranges from $6.4 to $81.2 million over the study period.
Chehalis Basin Strategy: Reducing Flood Damage and Enhancing Aquatic Species — Hydropower
128