Items Vol. 44 No. 1 (1990)

( SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH COUNCIL) Volume 441Number lIMarch 1990 •

Puzzles of Global Environmental Change The Council's collaborative research program

by Richard C. Rockwell* It's a puzzling world. Few of the puzzles are more intriguing than tho e of global environmental change: what is going on, where is the change coming from, how do we stop it or control it, what effects is it having on us and on our planet, what kind of world will our grandchildren experience? Puzzles are the delight of the cience , but the e are the hardest kind becau e none of them is the province of a single di cipline. Sooner or later, each one forces researchers to cro s di ciplinary boundaries, often the boundaries between the ocial ciences and the natural sciences.

The e are not the frrst problems to cross those fmn boundaries-mo t medical problems also cross them - but we are nevertheless poorly prepared for the bridge-building and development of dual competences that they require. Although the subject matter of the social sciences is at the core of many questions about global environmental change, it is uncertain whether the social sciences will playa central role.

Today we are not playing uch a role.

This paper poses some of the social science puzzles that confront researchers of global environmental change. It does so in the context of an effort by the Committee for Research on Global Environmental Change to foster collaborative interdisciplinary research on some of these problems through working groups focused on particular topics ..

605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158

Environmental changes being considered go far beyond the emi sion of greenhouse gasse with the po sibility of resulting global warming and rise of sea level, although tho e currently popular concerns are urely included. They also include the depletion of ozone in the upper atmosphere, acid rain, the depletion and pollution of water resources, loss of • Richard C. Rockwell, a sociologi t, is taff to the Committee for Research on Global Environmental Change and the Committee for International Peace and Security. This article is adapted from a talk prepared for presentation to the 1990 annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in New Orleans. Mr. Rockwell expresse thanks to the members of the committee whose ideas he has pirated for this article and apologizes for the mi takes, which are his alone.

I With the i tance of the National Science Foundation, the SSRC has appointed a Committee for Research on Global Environmental Change. Its members include: Edith Brown Wei ,Georgetown University Law Center, chair; Richard A. Berk, University of California, Los Angeles; William C. Clark, Harvard University; Harold K. Jacobson, University of Michigan; Diana M. Liverman, Pennsylvania State University; William D. Nordhaus, Yale University; John F. Richards, Duke University; Thom C. Schelling, Harvard University; Stephen H. Schneider, National Center for Atmospheric Research (Boulder, Colorado); and Billie Lee Turner D, Clark University. The committee has appointed a number of working groups on research question raised in thi article. These working groups will meet frequently to critique the progress of their research in its earliest stages and to redesign their research projects so as to maximize the cumulation of findings. They will ponsor workshops, conferences, networks, and scholarly articles.

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CONTENTS OF TmS ISSUE •

Puzzle of Global Environmen· tal Change, Richard C. Roclcw~1I

State and Society in the Middle East, E. Rog~r Owe" 10 Pre idential Items, David L. F~alherma" IS Current Activities at the Council 16 Bryce Wood Book Award ISEP Book Exchange

Democratic Politics in Africa and the Caribbean,

Tom

Lodg~

Eastern Europe-Recent Council Publication Other Council Publications Notes

17 19 21 23

biodiver ity, the mounting problem of di po al of olid wa te and nuclear by-product, defore tation , and oil 10 and degradation, to tart the li t. The e change hare two characteri tic : each occurs over period of decades to centurie , and each occurs on a cale of continent or broader. A problem of long-term, global change of any ort have not often been the focu of ocial cience re earch, we are faced not only by the need to bridge di ciplinary boundarie but al 0 by the imperative to lift our foci from the ociety-bound tudie that have long characterized our re earch and to improve our model of change.

The e environmental change affect humanity in manifold way . At the individual level, they po e threat to health and degrade the quality of life. They al 0 challenge the integrity of ocietie and economie , and the capacity of the international y tern to manage conflict and change. At the extreme, they imperil the ability of human to live on thi planet.

Human action largely cau e the e change in the environment. A the Ru ian geographer V.I .

Vernad ky noted year ago, humanity i today a force of geological proportion in changing the face of the Earth. And only human action can reverse the e change, control them , or prepare our heirs to adapt to a changed planet.

That there hould be ocial cience re earch on the e problem eem undi puted . What i at i ue in variou cience-planning di cu ion are the following: (1) hould the re earch agenda be rooted in long- tanding que tion of the ocial cience or hould it derive from que tion po ed by natural cienti ts? (2) what concretely are the ocial cience prepared to bring to uch re earch? and (3) what contribution might the pursuit of uch an agenda make to the ocial cience them elve ? My incomplete an wer are: (1) the abundant agenda that already exi ts ha root in both the natural cience and the ocial cience; any protectivene of the right of the ocial cience to define their "own" agenda is mi placed; (2) the problem of what we can bring to thi re earch i not 0 much one of idea and inherent competence as it i one of personnel-there are too few ocial cienti ts who are prepared to work with natural cienti t in efficient collaboration (and vice-ver a); and (3) orne of the olde t questions of the ocial cience can be illuminated by re earch on global environmental change. The e que tion are now before the new Committee on Human Dimen2 \ ITEMS

ion of Global Change of the National Re earch Council for full con ideration.

Over the past everal years of reading and attending conference in thi area, I have accumulated a mental helf of re earch que tion . Natural cienti t have po ed the e que tion a often a have ocial cienti t . The que tion roughly fall into the following topical area and will be taken up in thi order: • Getting the fact right • Projecting critically important condition and trend • Introducing culture and politic into the re earch • Modeling dirty data • Sharpening the core concept of u tainable development • Under tanding human proce e that lead to environmental change • Anticipating the range of po ible human re pon e to the e change • Managing both the proce e that lead to change and the change them elve

Getting the facts right Many of the fact at i ue have to do with the land, the ba i of human exi tence even for tho e who earn their living from the ea and tho e after u who may earn their living from the kie . There are a number of obviou but largely unan wered que tion about human u e of the land. What i the global pattern of human habitation of the land , and how have di tribution and den ity pattern changed over the centurie ? Such information i needed on a relatively fine grid , perhap at the level of W,OOO quare kilometer . To what u e do human put the land, and how have the e u e changed? Again, thi information i needed in great detail; uch categorie as fore t, grazing land , cultivation, and village will not uffice. And thi information on the land it elf mu t be overlaid with facts about culture : for example, what land tenure arrangements are employed, and what property rights are a umed by tenants and their ocietie ?2 Some of the an wer to the e que tion might be found in national tati tic ,other in remote ob ervation from ateUite, and others in hi torical record , 2 A working group on land usc. in coli boration with the NAS Committee on Global Change, i addre ing me of these que lions.

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but many an wers may be found nowhere ea ily.

Even the available infonnation i often u pect and difficult to utilize. Data collected by national government on the ize, di tribution, and ettlement pattern of their population are of highly variable quality; in orne case ,government con ider uch detailed infonnation to be ecret becau e of national ecurity concern . Data on land u e are not alone among the data that ocial cienti ts mu t que tion and eek to improve; national tati tic on energy con umption, indu trial production, and food production are al 0 candidate for u piciou examination.

Satellite pennit the collection of current land u e infonnation but pre ent two great problem : remotelyob erved data require validation by tudie on the ground, and the e data flow in uch overwhelming profu ion that they could easily overwhelm our ability to manage a well as to conceptualize them. The fonner problem point to methodological re earch: how can field data from the ocial cienee be compared with data from atellite ob ervation? The latter challenge our conceptual abilitie . We have not only relied upon relatively gro y tern for cIa ifying human u e of the land, but we al 0 have yet to develop, other than to orne extent in geography, analytical chemes in which patial relation hip and time equence are intrin ic and powerfully examined. Becau e di tance and pattern matter in analyzing environmental change , and becau e the spacing and timing of environmental events al 0 matter, we will require much more powerful techniques than employed today and the theorie to exploit them.

Mo t available tati tical technique di card patial infonnation and reduce infonnation on the timing of equence to imple before-after relation hip . Social cienti t al 0 need to help develop new conceptualization of the surface cover of the globe that are preci e enough for automated coding.

In order to understand po sible change in the quality of human life as a result, ay, of global warming, we mu t frrst be able to document the pre ent condition of humanity. However, even uch rudimentary documentation as that of the nutritional status of variou population i ob cure and often unreliable; there have recently been major debate in the United State about the pre enee of hunger and malnutrition in the population of this developed and heavily-studied nation. The Program in World Hunger at Brown University i doing significant work MAR H

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toward producing infonnation for the globe, as well as toward an wering a harder que tion: what account for the di paritie in nutrition among nation , and among group within nation ? Undertanding the extent and ource of under-nutrition in a world before global warming may be critical to fore eeing how human population can cope with both the po ible effect on food production of a changed climate and the increa ed demand of a growing population.

One of my favorite puzzle , posed to the ocial cience by the natural cience, 3 i that of the ca e of the mi ing CO2 , When atmo pheric chemi t make gro e timate of the amount of CO2 that has been dumped into the atmo phere by the burning of fo il fuel over the decade inee the indu trial revolution and add that to the amount which enter the atmo phere from other ga emitters uch as animal life, the re ulting tonnage of CO2 is ub tantially larger than i actually found in the atmo phere.

Where i the mi ing CO2? It might have been ab orbed in the ocean , but little i apparently known about the capacity of the ocean to ab orb thi ga or whether they are uper aturated or nearing aturation.

Whether or not the ocean can erve a a repo itory for thi greenhou e gas affects model of the buildup of gas e that might lead to global warming. There i al 0, of course, the que tion of what an increa ed concentration of CO2 in the ocean would do to their capacity to u tain life, beginning with effects on the plankton that apparently produce ub tantial amounts of oxygen. Thi i a problem not only for atmopheric chemi try but al 0 for the ocial ciences, particularly hi tory, becau e the models turn upon the accuracy of the gro e timate of fo il fuel burning.

We need to be able to di cu with orne certainty the hi tori cal pattern and developing inten ity of indu trialization throughout the world, a job only partially accomplished through previou case tudie .

We al 0 need to understand exi ting limitation on food, energy, and housing that are impo ed not by nature but by more and folkways in both developed and developing ocieties. Thi may help us undertand why culture make the choices they do in energy technologie , agriCUltural production, and ettlement patterns. Around the world we see growth of the cities, with the implication that the few in rural 3 See Taro Takahashi. "The Carbon Dioxide Puz:!le." Oc~anus. 32 (2). Summer 1989. pp. 22-29.

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area are omehow expected to be able to feed the many in the citie . I the implicit conversion of rural production to modem technology both energyefficient and u tainable? We need to tease out from culture their a umption about the environment: what are the myth , what i it "right" to do with and to do to the environment, what re pon ibility i owed either to the planet or to future generation , what limitation do culture place upon that human behavior which damage the environment?

Projecting critically important conditions and trend Modeling uch trend as increa e in the emi ion of greenhou e ga e or further depletion of the ozone layer require e timation of parameters from the province of the ocial cience as well as the natural cience : worldwide economic growth rate , population growth and di tribution, energy con umption and demand, agricultural production, and con ervation practice . The e parameter are often hakily e timated, particularly when re earcher mu t reach outside their own di cipline for the e timate .

Skeptici m i in hort upply among many modeler .

Model of global demand for electric power have been ba ed upon e timate of worldwide economic growth of 3.5 percent, even though for mo t developing nation outside the Pacific Rim that rate of economic growth would con titute a boom. Agricultural production ha been modeled a if only technological input mattered and a if there were arable land infinitely available for the taking. Energy demand have been modeled a if the people of developing nation would be able to purchase automobile , in tall appliance , and air-condition their hou e if they only had acce to energy.

A triking example of uncritical acceptance of parameters i found in Global Change and Our Common Future (1989), papers from a forum ponored by the NAS Committee on Global Change. The Foreword dramatically a ert "During the approximately 4,000 day that remain before the dawn of the third millennium, Planet Earth will be asked to accommodate another billion people .... Within the next 50 years, we mu t omehow learn to feed, clothe, house, educate, and meaningfully employ an additional five billion individual -the current population of the entire world. Over 90 percent of thi increase will take place in developing countrie ."

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The certainty implicit in the e numbers is worriorne: the track record of demography in forecasting population growth (or decline) i good but not perfect. Moreover, there are factor already at work that render the forecasts dubiou : decline in the growth rate of many nation ,epidemic uch as AIDS that may affect growth rate to orne degree, famine and food hortage that hinder reproduction and horten life, war , and the effect of environmental change it elf-including the feedback from po ible global warming to the feeding and thu the growth of the human population . That an increa e of large cale will occur in the next 10 years eem clear, but it magnitude i uncertain . Even more uncertain i the magnitude of the increa e over the next 50 year .

The United Nation World Commi ion on Environment and Development, chaired by Prime Mini ter Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland of Norway, and it influential volume, Our Common Future (1987), are trong in thi proclamation. That volume argued that there are no ab olute limit to growth, an unarguable propo ition given the dearth of ab olute in human affairs. Indeed, it i not po ible to fore ee all of the technologie and accommodation that might make it po ible for 10 billion people to live ati fying live on thi planet. However, there are limit , as pointed out by Paul Ehrlich and hi coauthors in their di cu ion of the carrying capacity of the Earth in Global Change and Our Common Future . They point out t: at there are no fail- afe backup mechani m de igned into the population-food y tern, and that in tead we depend, even under favorable climate , on the fact that agricultural di aster do not occur everywhere at once. They urge moving toward population hrinkage a rapidly a po ible. To ugge t that we "mu t omehow" accommodate an additional five billion individual over the next 50 year i imilar to the proclamation that the We t Side Highway mu t accommodate an additional 30,000 automobile next Friday, becau e projection indicate that thi many more people than u ual are expected to exit New York City for it northern uburb. Even in New York, a tran portation commi ioner who proceeded as if this were a reali tic po ibility would be reprimanded.

My point i not that population growth mu t be curtailed, although that i certainly a defen ible propo ition. It i in tead that thi projection, and others like it, require keptical examination by ocial VOLUME

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scientists. Together, the e projections are the foundation for projection of the emis ion of greenhou e gas e over the next 50 years. If a projection of growth of the world economy, energy consumption, fossil fuel burning, or adoption of conservation measure is substantially wrong, the resulting projections of global wanning may al 0 be wrong. At the lea t, we need a better sen e of the likely range of projections under variou rea onable as umption , not simply point estimates.

Another kind of projection i the currently popular assertion that environmental changes will become national and international security concerns, particularly as East-West conflict in Europe recede. There i indeed a long history of states going to war over environmental issues, particularly over the control of water. And environmental disasters would threaten the national security of some nations; for example, a mode t rise in sea level caused by the thermal expansion of sea water (and po ibly melting of ice cap ) due to global wanning could inundate the arable portion of Bangladesh and parts of Indonesia. But social scientists need to move beyond this kind of polemical argument to analysis: what kinds of environmental changes might lead to conflicts among or within state , what kinds of conflicts might be expected, and what mechani ms exist for resolving those conflicts?"

In his 1979 presidential addre to the American A ociation for the Advancement of Science, Kenneth Boulding noted that it i remarkably easy to forecast the behavior of unchanging configuration uch a the Solar System-but difficult to forecast the behavior of human ystems which can change because people want change. We might wish that we could retreat to the behavior captured in a wi ecrack popular among economic forecasters: "If you must foreca t, do 0 often. And never about the future." However, projections will be made, and improving their accuracy is critically important in this evolving collaboration of ocial and natural scientists.

Political or economic wi dom may also not accord with environmental wi dom and cientific rationality; policy makers often face trade-off . There is no guarantee that even tho e policy maker with ound knowledge and good intentions will implement environmentally ensible program . Trade-offs and compromi es with culture may force environmentally sub-optimal deci ion . In orne nation , the daily truggle for survival eem to force the hort-term exploitation of re ouree , sometimes in full recognition of the long-term co t . Thi ub-optimality often fru trate scienti ts and engineers who cannot understand, for example, why the people of a nation refu e to produce or con ume the crop that environmental wi dom dictate they hould grow. Or why a sen ible plan to decentralize the production of electric power to village collide with the desire of the central government to control its production. Or why the cultural benefit of cattle-owning override the calculation that greater economic benefits could be obtained from fore t product if only the fore t were not transformed into bare cattle range. S The ocial cience can particularly look to area specialists for research on cultural and economic que tion , political trade-offs, and the fea ibility of propo ed solution . The e cholars-located in many ocial cience and humanitie di cipline , trained in an often-exotic language, and deeply literate in a foreign culture-regularly inject a note of cultural reality into abstract debate . Their contribution are needed here.

Modeling dirty data

The history of policy interventions that made good environmental en e i blotched by many collisions between science and culture. Culture tends to prevail.

The social ciences could al 0 contribute to the development of improved modeling methods in the natural sciences. The ocial cience have long coped with dirty or noi y data, lack of continuity of measurement, mis ing ob ervations, urrogate mea ure , and the need to interpolate observation all problems faced by climate modelers and others.

Climate models that now produce only e timates of mean temperatures per ea on could be made far more u eful if they al 0 foreca t the variance of temperatures acro a eason and the extreme . The ocial cience have had to model variances and extreme a well as mean -an ability likely to be

4 A working group on international conflict i addre ing some of these que tions.

que lion .

Introducing culture and politics into the research

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, A work.ing group on social learning i addre ing some of these

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crucial in attempts to understand and forecast biological change in mall areas, as well as the human re pon e to climate change. They have developed robu t method of e tirnating mis ing ob ervations and of interpolating data points, including multiple imputation from logistic regre sion, and of linking macro- and micro-level proce e through hierarchical analy e . The e analytical kill , found not only in tati tic but al 0 in ociology, economic, and demography, could be drawn upon by our colleague in the natural cience. 6

Sharpening the core concept of sustainable development The concept of" u tainable development" pervade contemporary political discu ion of management of the interaction of human with their environment. In its imple t form, it urge development that meets the needs and aspiration of the present generation without compromi ing the ability of future generation also to meet their needs. In orne formulation , it adds two additional key concepts: a declaration of the overriding priority of meeting the need of the world' poor, and recognition of the limitation of both technology and ocial organization. Embedded in the concept is the conflict between the intere ts of developing nation and (I) the long-term environmental effects of past action of the indu trialized nation and (2) the need of the developing world to exploit its re ources for its own development, whether they be rain fore ts or coal reserve.

The concept is, in the first analysi , inherently political. "Need and a piration " are value-laden concepts. The conflict between Ie -developed countrie (LDC) and indu trialized nation generate the declaration of priority for the need of the world' poor. It generate the perception, already obviou among leader of LDC , that the indu trialized nation would like to prohibit them from following the ame (environmentally-damaging) development path as did the indu trialized nations. When the Prime Mini ter of the United Kingdom declared that no one can opt out from control of chloroflurocarbon , the re pon e from orne wa that the indu trialized We t had emitted mo t of the chloroflurocarbon now found in the atmo phere and wa re pon ible for 6 TIll ob rvation w made by RIchard A. Serle In a July 19 9 ympo ium held at the University of CalifornIa. Oavi .

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repairing the damage it had cau ed, without impairing other nation 'progre .

To move the concept from political symbol to a cientiflcally ound criterion for development policies requires conceptual analy i and research. To expand the concept to analy i of the ri ks of development and of the trade-offs between hort-term "repairable" environmental degradation and long-term development require pu hing the concept far beyond political analy i .

How would we recognize u tainable development if we aw it? Recall that at one time nuclear power was heralded as a permanent olution to energy need, 0 cheap a not to require metering and afe to boot. In the Texas oil field in the 1930 and later, natural gas was a nui ance in the way of production of crude oil; it was uneconomic to pipe it away, so it was burned at the well. The Domesday Book of 1085-86 recorded for William the Conqueror all the re ources of England-but not the exi tence of coal, because it was een as of no value. We are only now coming to ee the biodiversity of tropical jungle as a resource worth conserving, after having reduced the number of pecie at the rate of perhap 4,000 pecie per year. What else might future generation fault us for not conserving? That i , of what mu t we take account in determining whether a particular development i u tainable? What kinds of development do not compromise the ability of future generation to meet their needsas uming that we know what their need will be-and how can we tell without waiting to see? For that matter, are we ure that we could recognize un u tainable development in all its guises? Are all action that drastically change the environment in a given area for future generation un u tainable by definition, even if the environment i made more livable for human ?

We need comparative case tudies of in tance of what appears to be clearly su tainable or un u tainable development. Thi re earch hould addre the ecological and ocial context, how thi direction of development wa cho en, what failure were encountered, and what ri ks remain. The hypothesis i that su tainable development often has a hi tory of crisi and failure.

Differentiating those hi torie from the likely imilar hi torie of un u tainable development may help to harpen the concept. Thi al 0 i a domain in which area tudie peciali ts can be integral to the research. 7 7 A working group on comparative c addre ing some of the que tions.

tudie of development i

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Understanding human processes that lead to environmental change As Stephen Schneider has noted, the watchword for avoiding human transformation of the Earth i "Don't waste" -don't waste fo sil fuel, plastics, Freon, fixed nitrogen, toxic wastes from indu trial processes, the heat stored in a hou e, the thousand of beetle in tropical forests, top oil, human labor.

But human profligacy with our natural heritage i not the only source of environmental change. Urbanization, for example, is perhaps a critical a pect of the changing environment. It has implications for land use, the organization of agricultural production and storage, energy consumption, and perhap even the albedo¡ of the Earth. We have greatly increa ed the intensity with which we use resources of energy and materials. But we have decreased the intensity with which we use plant species for food: by some estimates, although we once ate the products of 7,000 species, today we depend on the product of around 20 species. And we are moving toward dematerialization of some manufacturing processes, 0 that production is becoming less re ource-dependent and the waste of one process becomes the re ource for the next. In many nations, we are increasing the inten ity of cultivation rather than expanding land under cultivation, largely by moving towards wetland rice cultivation. Why are these processe occurring? What are possible futures for these trend ?

One area deserving particular attention is the measurement of changes in labor productivity. The measurements employed in the United State have long been critiqued as outdated in uch area a the production of housing, the incorporation of improvements in quality, and production by the ervice sector. Econometric models have often taken the e measurements as valid and produced explanation of what might be, at least partially, statistical artifacts.

Social scientists need to challenge existing measure in the developed world. They also need to construct measures that are more appropriate for the developing world. This will enable us to under tand better the historical record of human productivity, the ource of change in it, and possible trajectories for change in the future. If part of our aim is to better meet the needs and aspirations of the pre ent generations, we

• Fraction of lighl or radialion renecled by a body.

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first need to improve our knowledge of how well we are doing now.

We al 0 need harp economic calculation of the long-term co t and benefits of pursuing one development trategy or another: that of clear-cutting of fore t rather than of selective removal of mature tree throughout the life span of a fore t; that of the allocation of land for urbanization rather than for agriculture ( omeone ha said that half of the best agricultural land of Canada can be een from the top of the CNN Tower in Toronto-and that it i all paved over); and that of investments in better fuel efficiency for private automobiles rather than in better mas tran portation sy tern . Becau e of the political power of economic arguments, demonstration of the long-term economic cost of pursuing one development trategy rather than another may prove far more persuasive to policy makers than could any other kind of long-term argument. However, the problem is hard: if there were no political barrier to worldwide implementation of policie that made good environmental en e, doe anyone have a clue a to what would make good economic en e? To what extent mu t i ues of equity enter into economic calculations-equity between developed and developing nation , between the rich and the poor within nations, between the pre ent generation and tho e of the future?8

Anticipating the ranges of possible human responses to these changes A debate of almost canonical dimen ions divides cienti t who study environmental change: hould one trive to prevent further environmental change or hould one learn to adapt to changes? Thi kind of que tion cannot be an wered analytically, except to the degree that re earch might demon trate that adaptation will not be po sible. Thi require anticipation of the range of po ibility in human re pon e to environmental change. For example, under ome cenario environmental changes on the horizon will lead to an increa ed incidence of human di ea e . Toxic chemicals and nuclear wa te are obviou ly threat to human life, but disea e might al 0 flow from water-borne di eases a sociated with increa ed wetland rice cultivation and irrigation, • A working group on eXIc:malilies and economic choice is addre ing some of these que lion .

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from increased expo ure to ultraviolet rays, from increased growth of para itic and ymbiotic pecie on crop , or from an inc rea e in the number of in ect due to horter and Ie evere winter . How can human adapt to the e changed condition for di ea e? What kinds of di ease might occur, and with what impacts on the human community? Would wide pread adoption of modern public health measures suffice to prevent di ease, and at what co t19 In much succe sful re earch on environmental change, the succe s appears to be at least partly due to the re earcher having selected a particular humannature interface on which to focu ; otherwise, the re earch can quickly get out of hand. A focu that might prove profitable for tudy of human adaptation to environmental change i the de ign of water systems-the provision of omething fundamental to human existence. Mo t exi ting water system are unprepared to adapt to change in weather or climate, heavily subsidized, and productive of inequities among region and nation . The politics of water are often bitter and divisive, and the management structures for making deci ion about water sy terns are often fragmented and ineffective. There are water-poor societies and water-rich ocietie , but inflexible water system make it difficult to remedy the e inequities. Although by orne e timate there i enough water available to u tain a population of 20 billion people, many ocietie are now pressing the limits of their supplies. Global warming could relieve their problems, while putting other ocieties into water deficits. Pollution of water supplie is a growing concern throughout the world, with pecial attention now being focu ed on the contamination of water in aquifers beneath the urface of the Earth and thu not expo ed to the oxygen that can help to tran form some pollutants. Many di eases are as ociated with the tran port and proce ing of water.

All these are problem at the interstices of the ocial and natural cience on which ocial cienti ts might profitably work.

Societies have been accustomed to thinking of the input to goods and ervice a the mea ure of ocietal well-being: how many kilowatt hours of electricity are generated, how much food is provided, how many tons of steel are produced? This lead to a 9 A working group on the epidemiology of environmental change i addre ing some of these que lion .

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lop ided calculus of ocial and economic development, one in which the provision of de ired good and services i not directly measured. It doe not matter whether an apartment house is built with 100 ton of new steel or with 100 tons of recycled girders, so long as it is built. The proper count is of acceptable housing units, not of tons of steel; the object is to hou e people, not to make teel. Social scientists can help develop tho e counts of increments to ocietal well-being, thu realizing an old aim of the .. ocial indicators movement." And analysi of those counts might how that con ervation is not incompatible with pro perity.

There is much concern in developing nations today that they will be prevented from pursuing their own development becau e powerful industrial nations will prevent the developing world from pursuing the ame environmentally-damaging development paths as they pursued. However, it is po sible to conceive of the developing world leapfrogging the developed world, by adopting technologies that yield the same or greater benefits without the environmental con equences. It is even po sible to think of radical change in human organization, economic relationhip , and governance that would enable developing nations to bypas the pre ent indu trial powers. In the wave of self-congratulation sweeping the West after the failure of Stalinist regime in Eastern Europe, we would do well to recognize the likelihood that free-market capitalism has not yet demonstrated its success, especially at coping with environmental problems-only that Stalinist regimes have demonstrated their failures. Environmental imperatives have considerable potential for re tructuring societies and economies.

Managing both the processes that lead to change and the changes themselves Two major ets of que tion mu t be addressed: (l) what management step can be taken to reverse environmental degradation, to maintain the environment, or to mitigate the environmental effects of past and pre ent human action ; and (2) what management tep are needed to enable humans and human societies to adapt to changing environmental condition ? Whatever the in titutional structure and proce e we employ or de ign for the e ends, they mu t be capable of proceeding in the continuing pre ence of con iderable scientific uncertainty.

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Uncertainty can be a pretext for doing nothing, but it can al 0 be a reason for earching out prudent management tools that do as little harm as possible if their cientific base turn out to be wrong. Beyond uncertainty, institutional structures must be capable of dealing with surprise, including challenges to the environment that no one has anticipated. The emergence of the ozone hole over Antarctica was one such urprise, the growth of Legionnaire's bacteria in office cooling towers another. The January 1990 Exxon oil spill off Staten I land illu trate once again the dangers inherent in bureaucratic rigidity: the pipe that burst was of too low a capacity to fall within the purview of a Federal regulatory agency, but because it moved oil between two states, no state agency was re ponsible. All concerned were urpri ed when an allegedly-faulty monitoring y tern turned out to have given a correct signal after all-as had happened earlier at Three Mile Island.

Central to much thinking about management of the global environment is the pre umption that the ame kinds of laws, treaties, and protocols that have been employed to deal with other problems can be called upon for olutions to the e problems. Consider, for example, the growing enthusiasm for international agreements to protect the environment, uch as the 1987 Montreal protocol on ozone. How realistic are the assumptions about nation- tate implicit in such agreements? To what extent will a given statewhether in a market-driven, centrally-planned, or anarchic economy-be able to implement dome tically the agreements to which it puts its pen internationally? There is a pre umption among many politicians and some scholars that only the nationstate can act for ocietie , but in today' rapid ero ion of the power of many state regime over their societies, it is problematic whether agreements among nation- tate are always an effective approach. 10 There are two sets of law to be weighed when designing management re pon e to environmental change: the laws of cience and the law of humanity.ll Con ider nuclear waste dispo al. Given the long

10 A working group on the national implementation of international accords i addre ing some of these que tions.

II Oi u ion of thi dilemma may be found in Alvin Weinberg's article, "Social Institution and Nuclear Energy," Sci~nc~, 177(4043), July 7,1972, p. 33.

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half-life of many nuclear products, storage systems mu t simultaneously meet two goals. They mu t be designed not only to remain physically safe for longer than the Pyramid have lasted, but al 0 to be recognized as dangers for longer than was required for the archaic Indo-European root language to evolve into today's mutually incomprehen ible European language . How can a me age of danger be accurately and reliably communicated acro s the millennia as languages and culture change in unforeseeable ways? A skull-and-cro sbone or the "universal symbol" of atomic energy could 10 e their meaning , particularly if electric power technology abandons fission. To argue that governmental in titution will persist and retain the needed memorie is doubtful in view of the charge that the Manhattan Project of only 45 years ago left contaminated manufacturing and di posal sites of which there is now no record.

Scientists and ocial cienti ts are often frustrated by their inabilitie to sway governments; what eems a clear and rational analy is may get little hearing.

De pite years of tudy of the u e of cientific knowledge in policy making and program evaluation, ocial cientists still do not yet know how to advi e advocate of particular policie to make their cases.

We need ca e tudies of effective intervention by cienti ts in policy formulation and of ineffective intervention . Such case tudie were among the intere ts of Paul F. Lazarsfeld near the end of his life and could well occupy a ucce or generation.

The potential contribution of ocial cience to re earch on global environmental change are clear and can be realized. The problem can evoke re earch that will be central to our own di ciplines: re earch on ocial organization, ocial control, social differentiation, political power, political change, cultural difference, learning, population proce es, value, and ocial change. The re earch will be done because it mu t be done. It is not nece ary for u to plead the case with natural cienti ts for our involvement; there i now no lack of recognition within the natural cience of the alience of ocial cience problems. I detect nothing but an open door to the ocial ciences in the variou committee and re earch programs that the natural ciences have e tabli hed, beginning with the pivotal International Geo phere-Bio phere Programme. There i , however, curio ity about whether we are up to the ta k, both cientifically and organizationally. • ITEM

/9

State and Society in the Middle East

by E. Roger Owen* The State ha become a compelling topic for Middle Ea t cholars ju t a it has for tho e concerned with o many other region of the world. It would be u eful to begin by asking why thi is o.

Three important ets of reason come to mind. The frr t i an obvious pinoff from the re ource cri i which affected 0 many countrie in the 1970 and 1980 , when regime and governments were forced to the conclusion that they could no longer fund the huge array of ub idie and ervice which eemed to have become the norm in the previou decade. Thi set in train a proce of economic-and ometime political re tructuring and retrenchment which, in it Soviet and Ea tern European form we have learned to call pere troika.

The econd et of rea on why tate are now at the center of our agenda tern from a particular political re pon e to the arne re ource cri i . In it original Western form, thi wa a sociated with notion of deregulation, privatization and rolling back the tate. A it ha reached the Third World and then Eastern Europe, it ha al 0 picked up the as ociated notion of the di appearance, and then perhap the re urgence, of omething called "civil ociety." Thi powerful-if often impreci e-notion found a particular re pon e when applied to countrie ubject to one-party regime . In countrie a far apart a Algeria and Hungary, it i being u ed to de cribe anything that i not covered or controlled by the party it elf. More po itively, it i u ed to refer to uch ideal a ope nne s, the rule of law and the pre ence of independent political partie .

A third reason for the appearance of the tate/ ociety dichotomy on our pre ent agenda i a renewed concern for human right , civil right , and a ociated notion like law and citizen hip. For tho e faced with the difficult task of trying to explain or alleviate oppre ion, y tematic torture, deportation, and the denial of basic rights, it i omething called the tate, Hobbe ' all powerful and multi-limbed Leviathan, which it elf i een a the central problem. • E. Roger Owen, St Antony ' College (Oxford). i chair of the Joint Committee on the Near and Middle Ea t.

1O\ ITEM

In the case of people of my generation, there i till another reason for our concern with the Middle Ea tern tate which tern from the fact that, in one way or another, we grew up to be complicit with what we took to be the progressive state-building enterpri e of the early po t-colonial independence period. Living as I did in Cairo in the early 1960 , it wa difficult not to become excited by the Nas er project, to ee Egypt-and perhap the re t of the world-through hi eye, to write about it u ing the arne highly charged vocabulary of planning and education and ocial ju tice for all. Even now, when o much about that period has been revealed a hollow and flawed, it still requires an effort to re ist the old bright hiny word or to see Arab society from any other vantage point than Cairo or Damascus or Amman. Other, although I hope not myself, have been unable to resist the call to go out and help make what Gunnar Myrdal once called the " oft state" harder and more effective.

Neverthele ,for all the books written by fellow academics about the nece sity of "bringing the state back in," I think we have to recognize that much of the vocabulary u ed in di cu ion about contemporary tate and ocietie i not really our vocabulary, that the que tion po ed, and often the very re earch agenda itself, are given to u from outside. This po e a particular challenge. Enthusia m for the tate as an object of tudy ea ily leads to its reification. An alternative enthu ia m for the emergence of a new civil ociety can lead u to look for, or to anticipate, what we like to think of a worthwhile and predictable change in many of the wrong place .

What can we do instead? How can we try to di entangle ourselve from the vocabularie and political concern of others while till retaining a proper intere t in contemporary Middle Eastern reality? During work hop and meetings held over the pa t three year , the Joint Committee on the Near and Middle Ea t ha been addre ing the e question by developing an alternative re earch agenda.

At root, our program depend on two related ets of notion . The fir t concern the difference between what we have called the effect of the state-that is, it appearance to people as a single coherent entity, quite di tinct from ociety-and the reality which is much more complex, more fluid, and much more difficult to conceptualize. Put more crudely, I want to as ert that the tate i not a thing - whatever Hobbe and others may have argued-but that it contains VOLUME 44. NUMBER 1

powerful mechani ms for trying to convince people that it i one.

The econd i that the be t way to try to understand both the effect of the tate and its actual pre ence in terms of a et of in titutions, practices, and claims is to look at the way the e were constructed in concrete hi tori cal ituation.

The easie t part of the project i to de cribe what the tate effect is and why it i created. It is much Ie easy to explain how it i created and what relation hip thi proce bears to the actual practice which upport it. To tho e who control the central administrative apparatus, the advantage of being able to pre ent their activitie a part of a ingle, coherent, ab tract enterpri e are legion. It maximizes their own power. It encourage fear, re pect, and undivided loyalty. It helps them to control their own official. It make it more difficult for their own internal divi ions to be exploited and u ed again t them.

Ai 0, it give them the advantage of being able to pre ent them elve as a ingle entity in their dealing with outside powers.

How is thi done? First of all, there are usually well-developed mechanism by which a state can define itself and place a hard and fast boundary around its own activitie . Some parts of the apparatus of government get called" tate" and others do not.

Some people wear tate uniform , or are put on the state' payroll, and others are not. Rule and regulation as well as the law are u ed to make the ame point. The whole proce is reinforced by a vocabulary containing a variety of familiar and inc rea ingly ophisticated dichotomie , beginning with "u and them" and pas ing on through "public and private," "politic and economic," and "state and ociety," all of which can be u ed to underpin the impre sion of the tate as being omething different, omething di tant-and thu as omething unchallengeable, omnipotent, and eternal. Thi i perhap mo t easily done by a colonial tate whose power i in fact derived from outside. But the independent tate can do much to create the appearance of externality by presenting themselve a creature of another world of power and cientific planning and nece ity.

Neverthele ,we al 0 know that not only the exi tence of boundarie but al 0 the whole rationale u ed by tate to define and pre ent them elve in a particular way i not only highly problematic, but also highly political, highly contentiou , and alway open to challenge. Example of thi are mo t ea ily found MARCH

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when the proce of elf-definition, of labeling and clas ification, of coordination, i at it mo t open, either at the beginning of the independence period or when a country i subject to what i pre ented as a comprehensive tran formation in its ideological and in titutional direction, uch as the introduction of Egypt' Arab Sociali m.

The case of Israel One relatively well-known example i that of po t-independence Israel where it wa decided that certain pre- tate in titution like the Jewi h Agency hould be cia ified as out ide the ambit of the tate as strictly defined, while others like the Hi tadrut had parts of their activitie incorporated within the framework of the tate-for in tance its educational activitie -while others, like its bank and its welfare fund, were left outside. In each case there was good reason for the deci ion taken by David Ben Gurion and hi government. Leaving the Jewi h Agency as an independent organization allowed it to receive non-taxable donations from the United States which could only, in law, be ent to a charitable rather than a government agency. It al 0 permitted the e ame donations to be di tributed only to the Jewish citizens of the new tate, not to it Arab population as well.

Meanwhile, Ben Gurion and the other leaders of the Mapai party eem to have approached the que tion of the future of the Hi tadrut in term of pure party political advantage, nationalizing orne part of its activitie and leaving it tho e which would enable it to continue to recruit Mapai members from among new immigrants. But in either ca e, whether formally cia ified as part of the tate or not, both the Jewi h Agency and the Hi tadrut formed part of the overall y tern of government, upervi ion and control.

Yoram Peri' de cription of the creation of a new tatu for the I raeli army in the e arne years is ju t as telling. A he de cribe it in hi book, Between Battles and Ballots (Cambridge University Pre , 1983), Ben Gurion' approach wa one which under the banner of hi own concept of Mamlachtuittatene or, really, the need to ubordinate pre- tate organization and party-ba ed in titution to the need of a Jewi h tate-he created a tructure of control which divorced management of the new I raeli Defen e Force from direct political interference, while keeping them under hi own personal uperviITEM

/11

sion as Prime Minister, Mini ter of Defen e and, in general, as guardian of the national interest.

Development that took place during the frr t year of the Islamic Republic of Iran make much the same point. There, the new 1979 con titution was u ed explicitly to define the new in titutions of government and the relation hip between them while, at the same time, making provi ion for the future incorporation of bodies like the Revolutionary Guards which then, and to some extent now, were able to pre erve an ambiguou existence both in ide and outside the fonnal state tructure. Boundaries are always porous.

Cia ifications can alway be challenged. More generally, the busine s of tate construction i alway conte ted and never complete.

Turning to the recent history of the Arab countrie of the Middle East, our brief tudy of their early independence period revealed the exi tence of relatively amorphou and fluid tructures of government with a low degree of internal cohesion. There were projects of national development to be ure. But the e had to be attempted within an in titutional framework in which bureaucracies were highly fragmented and highly politicized and in which relations between capitali t and workers, or landowners and peasant , were as likely to be regulated by the police as by the law and the courts.

In the e circum tance the proce s of clas ification and coordination po ed particular difficultie . And it may be that the incoherence and contradictions which thi eemed to produce was a major factor encouraging the military to enter the cene with its own project for admini trative centralization a a prelude to a more concerted program of refonn, redi tribution, and development. Certainly thi is what actually happened. A we know, a strenuou effort wa made to replace politic by admini tration inside a va tly enlarged governmental apparatus which, afe from prying eye, could now be preented as a ingle-minded, monolithic enterpri e repre enting a ingle general will. Here indeed was Hobbes' Leviathan - if you could be made to ee it only from the out ide, if you could be persuaded to entru t your life and your hope to the man at its head or to one of its many limb . Size, the appearance of unity, lack of infonnation about how deci ion were made, the con tant uncovery of plots by the police and the ecret ervice ,all erved to create the ame impre ion.

The reality of cour e wa very different. Egyptians, 12\ ITEMS

for example, were always aware of the ambiguities, the inconsistencies, the openness to manipulation that existed at mo t level of this suppo edly monolithic structure even while exhibiting a en ible awe and fear when faced with the well-orchestrated impression of omnipotence and omniscience emanating from the Pre idency itself. Outside analysts found themselves pre ented with somewhat the same dilemma.

Economists like Bent Hansen and Patrick O'Brien, who e clear-sighted first-hand ob ervations of the way in which the frrst five-year-plan wa drawn up contain a faithful record of all its incon istencies and incoherence, till cannot e cape from the mystique which surrounds the notion of planning itself and the ense that, if properly practiced, with less political interference, it could provide the e sential blueprint for the country's future.

The Karnshish affair Some of the peculiaritie of the planning process and of the way in which new boundarie were drawn between public and private enterpri e were exposed in the debates that accompanied the end of Egypt's frrst, and only, five-year-plan in 1965 and the unsuccessful attempt to draw up its succe sor. But the event which really unveiled many of the central features of the tate and of tate/ ociety relation during the Na er period was the so-called Kamshi h affair-triggered by the murder of a village political activi t in 1966-which rumbled on through 1966 and 1967.

Here was one of tho e rare events which fortuitously provide a window into the inner workings of a deliberately secretive regime. As we know from the tudie of tho e like Hamied An ari who have had acce to the record of the Higher Committee for the Liquidation of Feudalism which was et up to examine the affair, there were hundreds of instances in which the rule e tabli hed by the 1952 and 1961 land refonn laws were obviou ly flouted by landowning families with member well placed throughout the bureaucracy, the Arab Socialist Union and, in orne cases, the army. Indeed 0 wide pread were the e eva ions that it is difficult to avoid the conclu ion that, far from repre enting an occasional and perhaps understandable aberration within an otherwise well-regulated system, they were in fact an e sential component of that system itself. Proof comes, if proof i needed, from the difficulty which the Committee itself experienced in trying to work out VOLUME

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whether what had been done was illegal and, if 0, according to what code or practice. Here, notions of what might be called "Arab socialist legalism" were juxtapo ed uncomfortably with the neces ities of class-based and institutional politics as well as appeals to a pure rai on d'6tat.

So far, I have been discussing how we have tried to examine the effect created by states, as well as orne related questions concerning how and why this effect is created and how it tends to mystify not only the people of the country concerned but outside academic ob ervers as well. In the analysis of the state and of tate/society relations, some of us tend to get entrapped by a vocabulary which is both deeply ambiguous and deeply infected by the pre ence of the state effect itself. It i ambiguous becau e, in ordinary language, we use the word "state" in at least two quite different ways, sometime to refer to the aspect of sovereignty and boundaries, ometimes to the central apparatu of rule-making and control.

Meanwhile, the term carries with it multiple associations of thingness, or Leviathanne s, encouraging us to think of it as a single entity, of it "penetrating" something called society, of it having capacities, of it inhabiting a different area of space from the people it seeks to manipulate and control.

An elusive entity Our committee, has gone no further than the assumption that the attempt to find the state as a et of structures and in titution and arenas, practices and claims is best attempted by looking back for it in history. We have also found it u eful to begin by concentrating on tho e moments when it best reveals itself a a project for constructing something e entially new in terms of labels, methods of coordination, and new definitions of the boundaries between it and the re t of society. In a Middle East context, such moment obviously occur when the state in all its various definitions is created, de novo, by a colonial power as in the case of Syria, Palestine, and Iraq just after the First World War. A second such moment which we have attempted to examine occurred at the moment of formal independence, and a third when the military took over to establish what, to u e another vocabulary, we tend to call authoritarian, or bureaucratic/authoritarian, regime .

An e ential feature of thi project seem to me to be able to render de criptive justice to the tructures MARCH

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and practices involved. This till requires a great deal of original research because, once you look at the question anew, you immediately realize how little we have to go on in term of books and other printed sources. It is a bit the same as when you tum hopefully to the index of some of the great classical studies of political philo ophy, like George H. Sabine's History of Political Theory, onJy to realize how rarely writers have attempted to tackle the que tion of "What is the state?" head on.

It is also particularly difficult to come to grips with the que tion in the early independence period in Iraq after 1932, in Syria after 1945, and in Egypt whenever you calculate that independence began-no easy problem as any number of recent books on these countrie ' political and economic and social history o readily te tify. Perhap it is no wonder that the army officers often threw up their hands in horror at the sheer incoherence of it all. While I agree with Yahya Sadowski that there was indeed omething he calls a national project at this period, a blueprint for reform and national development, when it come to trying to work out how this project was actually implemented, it tends to dissolve in a shifting mass of politicians, bureaucrats and pecial intere t lobbyists moving in and out of offices and institutions with only minimal defmition and ever- hifting boundarie between them. Neverthele s, such an approach does have the great advantage that everything was then very much more out in the open, with arguments and jurisdictional disputes much easier to discern. The processe by which, for example, certain tribal leaders or rural notable were partially incorporated into the lowly expanding central administration provide wonderful illustrations of the difficulties of drawing boundaries and of deciding whether this or that activity by this or that type of person is to be con idered state or society or something floating in between.

The study of either the colonial or the immediate po t-independence state has one other great advantage and that is the way it permits an analysi of the proce s by which new categories of persons are created and then encouraged to interrelate. There i , of course, the concept of the citizen, although subject to all the usual qualifications as to whether all such person could, or hould, bear arms, pay taxes, or be allowed to vote. Women were almo t inevitably excluded.

There were al 0 many other ways in which more ITEMS I 13

particulari t division between different types of subjects were created. In colonial and early independent Iraq, for example, there were two types of legal system, the national and the tribal. With the beginnings of land regi tration, there also came a new kind of person - the citizen as property owner.

Meanwhile, in Lebanon, it was decided that only members of the six bigge t Muslim and Christian sects should be recognized as having a particular political right to stand for parliament, leaving others, like Greek Catholics, with no po ibility of obtaining elected office. Thi was omething the colonial state could manage relatively easily through its mechanism of censuses and constitution . But it posed considerable difficulty for the newly independent regimes when they tried to alter, or to regularize, the e form of particularism, a proce s which generally excited much opposition among variou group , most of whom tended to get labeled as anti-national for their pain .

The que tion of tate and society in the contemporary Middle East is probably be t approached through history and not via the optic either of the statist projects themselves or of present-day political agendas et from outside. When we come back to the present, we can then begin the process of what could best be called the "deconstruction" of the state, using concept and hypothe e which have already been tried and te ted against the historical material.

Although the processe of political and economic

14\ITEM

re tructuring in the Arab world-as well as in Iran, Israel and Turkey - may not be as new worthy as those in Eastern Europe, they are till of con iderable intere t and importance in their own right. Thi i especially 0 of one-party regime which, like Sadat's Egypt, or now like Algeria, have attempted to combine economic liberalization and decentralization with an associated measure of political reform involving new con titution , new law for partie and election and, for the Algerians, a code of information allowing much greater freedom of expre ion as well. Indeed Algeria is now poi ed for an experiment in many ways as bold and as difficult as that of Hungary, with the FLN desperately trying to revivify itself in uch a way as to make itself presentable to the voters in the forthcoming general election . A in Hungary there i , as yet, no way to predict the outcome.

In every case, an inevitable re ult of uch processes will be new definition of the tate, new patterns of coordination, and new relation hip between laws and in titution . There will al 0 be open dispute and di agreements over key boundaries, for example, tho e between public and private, military and civilian and, of cour e, religiou and secular. All such boundarie are open to challenge.

Surely, the re ult of the e pre ure and debate will have the mo t profound implication for each of these ocieties in the years to come.

For the Joint Committee on the Near and Middle Ea t, it makes for an exciting course of inquiry. •

VOLUME 44, NUMBER 1

Presidential Item s Probably all presidents of the Council have begun their tenures with a ense of excitement, and my own experience is certainly no different. But even beyond my feeling of anticipation, the atmo phere of renewed and fre h opportunities seems especially inten e in our New York office as we tart a new decade.

One source of this enthusiasm is our initial progre in designing a new architecture for the Council's international training and research programs. I want to use this fir t "Presidential Items" column to comment on this progress. Future columns will be devoted to new initiatives in other Council program .

The Council experienced a crisis over the summer.

Core funding for the di ertation fellowship , postdoctoral grants, and field development activities of most of the Council's joint* foreign area committees had either lap ed without renewal or had been sharply curtailed. Rapid action by the Council's Executive Committee stabilized the situation, but morale within taff and the collegial committee system wa rather low. Many outside the Council even wondered if the SSRC wa preparing to abandon entirely its longstanding commitment to building cientific expertise concerning foreign cultures, societies, and nations.

Arriving in New York in September, I was charged with developing a strategic planning process to develop a fresh conceptualization of the Council's activities in international training and re earch-one that would encompass both domestic and foreignba ed ocial science. That planning process is now under way, and while the outcome i far from certain, real progre s has been made. The mood, at least within the Council, is more upbeat, and informal recent conversations with the funding community have been encouraging.

To initiate the planning process, during the early fall I wrote to all the members of the II joint foreign area committees and to many others with international intere t . I al 0 met per onally with as many of the committee a I could. Together we addres ed even rather daunting (a they have been called by my corre pondents) questions about the intellectual training and organizational rationales for the joint • With the American Council of Learned Societie (ACLS).

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committees, and about the prospective cholarly and research agendas that would warrant recommissioning them for the 1990s. In response, I received over 50 very thoughtful, insightful, substantial, and often rather innovative replies. Based on these materials, and working together with a small group of advisors, we are now moving towards a fresh mandate for a reconfigured set of foreign area committees.

It is likely that the new mandate will include (but not be limited to) greater emphasis on intercommittee collaboration in research activities, and also on research training, e.g., techniques and methodologies of comparative analysis, workshops on data resources for research in developing nations and regions, and research apprenticeships within ongoing collaborative, comparative projects. With this in mind and in order to build upon some immediate opportunities, I invited all Council committees to submit brief proposals describing potential projects or research themes on which two or more committees might collaborate in regional, comparative, or transnational research over the next one or two years. With advice from a separate panel of reviewers, the Council is about to fund an initial set of the e propo also At least one or two more rounds of funding will follow during 1990.

While increasing attention to comparative and transnational re earch will be an important new charge for Council committees generally, it is not intended to gainsay the value of area or regionally focused scholarship. The Council has al 0 et aside funds for the more area-specific field developmental activities for the individual area committee .

Finally, in the coming months, we plan to announce in Items additional calls for propo als that will not be solely directed to the existing committees.

This initiative will identify a variety of global or transnational themes (e.g., global environmental change) that warrant pecial collaborative attention by speciali ts acro s world regions, or which offer unique opportunitie to integrate social cience with the physical and natural ciences, or the humanities.

One objective of the new initiative is to explore some new ground in preparation for the Council's next round of propo als to its funders, aimed at developing an international program attuned to the needs and opportunities of the next decade and the new century. The e propo als mu t offer a strong, compelling, and richly elaborated rationale for foreign ITEMS/IS

area re earch at the Council. Ironically, many foundation are again questioning the value of inve ting in area-ba ed cholarship and research per se, even a contemporary events abroad remind us of our need for greater knowledge of global affairs. Too few of our cholar today have sufficient intellectual and cultural experti e beyond our own hores. A reconceptualized tripartite Council agenda for social science re earch concerned with specific foreign culture and ocietie , with their relationship to each other and to the United States, and with global relation hip of tran national interdependency hould reexcite the imagination and intere t of the funding community a well as that of our academic colleague.

In the next i ue of Items I hope to de cribe orne new initiative to internationalize the training of

graduate students in the social ciences. Staff and I are currently preparing several proposals we hope will e tablish new upport for course work in language training and explorative overseas research projects, along with dissertation fellowships and workshops.

We are particularly concerned about the substantial underrepresentation of students from minority backgrounds, as well as the dearth of economi ts, sociologists, political scientists and psychologists among those entering internationally oriented re earch and teaching careers-especially with regard to developing countries. The recruitment and training of a new generation of social scientists with strong language skills and cultural literacy on other parts of the world is es ential to the future of the social sciences in this country.

- David L. Featherman

•

Current Activities at the Council Bryce Wood Book Award Thomas Skidmore, Profe or of Hi tory at Brown Univer ity, received the Latin American Studie As ociation's ftf t Bryce Wood Book Award, for The Politics of Military Rule in Brazil, 1964-85, publi hed by Oxford University Pre in 1988. An honorable mention wa awarded to Patricia Seed, for To Love, Honor and Obey in Colonial Mexico, 1574-1821, publi hed by Stanford University Pres in 1988. M . Seed wa the recipient of a doctoral re earch fellow hip from the Joint Committee on Latin American Studie in 1976.

The award for an out tanding book on Latin America i named in honor of Bryce Wood, a political cienti t who erved as taff to the Joint Committee on Latin American Studie from 1959 until 1973, when he became an executive a ociate emeritu .

ISEP Book Exchange An important component of the Indochina Scholarly Exchange Program (ISEP) i the exchange of scholarly material between in titutions in Vietnam, Lao and Cambodia, and their American counterparts.

For cholarly institution long cut off from the re ults 16\ ITEM

of re earch in the West, the e exchange repre ent a significant source of information. This is particularly so in light of the value placed on scholarly materials within the traditional culture of the region.

Since resources are lacking in all fields, ISEP's committee of Indochina specialists has organized the exchange to provide material relevant to specific projects undertaken between the committee and its counterpart organizations in Indochina.

The frrst joint project between ISEP and the Vietnam Committee for the Social Science centers around the theme of .. Economic and Social Renovation in Vietnam." In conjunction with this project, ISEP committee member and project organizer, William Turley, University of Southern IDinois, is gathering the be t materials written in the We t on reform in sociali t ocietie. Approximately 50 books on the ubject will be presented to the library of the Vietnam Committee for the Social Sciences on the occasion of a jointly-sponsored workshop in Hanoi in June 1990.

This presentation will be a ftf t step in an ongoing program of book exchange with academic organizations in Indochina which will not only increase the acce s of scholars in the region to Western materials, but will also seek to provide new resource to American cholars.

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44.

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Democratic Politics in Africa and the Caribbean

by Tom Lodge* At a time when Africa's largest nation, Nigeria, is attempting a third transition to constitutional democracy, there has been a recent resurgence of studie of po t-colonial governments and political proce e.

Two Council-spon ored panels at the November 1989 African Studies As ociation in Atlanta took as their focus the comparative analysis of the political sy terns and culture of Caribbean and African nations.'

Participants identified two competing explanations for the re ilience of constitutional arrangements developed during the decolonization period in the British West Indies. A paper by Carlene Edie focused on professional and middle-class groupings, ocialized through an unu ually pervasive colonial educational sy tern, and able to as ume effective command of state structures. They have used the e to develop sophisticated clientalist political machines. By this means they can distribute benefits to supporters on a sufficient scale to in pire relatively high levels of popular participation in elections. In these societies the state employs about a third of the labor force .

This politics of patronage, though, remains dependent on continued access to international economic and financial resources .

The second approach, pre ented in a paper by Clifford Griffin, emphasized political culture rather than political economy. Regular elections, smooth change of government, and pre ervation of individual freedoms are not adequately explained by the availability and distribution of economic resources. In structural terms, African and Caribbean countries are fairly comparable. In Africa, British colonial policies • Tom Lodge , a hi torian , serves as tarf to the Joint Committee on African Studie and the Joint Committee on the Near and Middle East. t The two panels and their participan were " Parliamentary Democracy in Africa and the Caribbean," Peter Ekeh , University of Ibadan, chair, Carlene &lie, University of M husetts, Amherst; Clifford Griffin, University of Roche ter; Jame Millette, University of the West Indies, Trinidad; Winsone A. Downie, Manh ttan College, Parlc:way, di u sant; and " Cultural Revival and Renai sance in Africa and its Diaspora," Elizabeth Wilson , University of We t lndie , Jamaica , chair; Tiffany Patterson, University of Toledo; Tejumola Olaniyan, Carter O. Woodson Institute, University of Virginia; Earl Lovelace, University of the We t Indie , Trinidad; Manning Marable, University of Colorado; AckJyn Lynch, University of Maryland , Baltimore County, discussant.

MARCH 1990

and the often hasty development of parliamentary electoral sy tern were imposed upon an exi ting matrix of indigenous culture and ocial tructures.

By contrast, in the Caribbean, ocietie have evolved which are much more ocially and culturally homogeneous. Notwith tanding African cultural survivals within the Caribbean diaspora, the transatlantic slave trade and the brutal regimentation of the plantations created a social environment in which Briti h institutions had a much more tran forming effect than in Africa. The continuity into the present of these in titution , in fact, stretches over centurie . The establi hment of forms of representative government for white settlers on certain island date back to the 17th century. Thi has had ambiguous effects: historical traditions may have helped to enhance the popular legitimacy of electoral sy terns, but Caribbean cholars have al 0 argued that "the authoritarianism inherent in the culture, ocial ideology, and social relation of the traditional plantation ociety has in some subtle ways . . . carried over into the contemporary value system."2 This is manife t, for example, in a common pattern of ub ervient deference to political leaders. It is also evident in the residual authoritarian character of inherited colonial con titution .3 Recent African studie also suggest that the cultural bases of political authority are key variable in the su tainability of democratic government. A recent Kenyan study contends that African democrats can draw no comfort from pre-colonial history becau e "the first general principle which eemed to lie at the base of nearly all African political systems was the concept of hierarchy . . . political organizations were conceived in a hierarchical structure with little or no horizontal checks and balances."4 In modem Kenya, a fragmented economic base, an unrecon tructed authoritarian colonial state, and a dominant tradition of rural property ownership, all combine to underpin a politically enervating "ideology of order."5 Several 2 Carl Stone, " A Political Profile of the Caribbean ," in Sidney Mintz and SaUy Price (eds.>, CaribINan Contours, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Pre , 1986, p. 23 .

3 Jame Millette, " Parliamentary Democracy in the Caribbean: How Democratic?" Paper presented t ASA, Atlanta, November 3, 1989.

4 V .O . Simiyu, "The Democratic Myth in African Traditional Societies ," in Walter O. Oyugi , E. S. Atieno Odhiambo, and Michael Chege (eds .>, IHmocralic Th~ory and Pracrict in Africa, Nairobi: Heinemann, 1988, p. 55. , E. S. Atieno Odhiambo. " Democracy and the Ideology of Order in Kenya," in Oyugi , et aI., IHmocralic Th~ory and Praclict in Africa.

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African political cienti ts believe that popular political values and behavior can be related to the enduring influence of thi pre-capitali t social tructure. 6 From thi viewpoint, politic i conducted within the frameworks of personal loyalty and benevolence which organize and bind together peasant communitie .

Emphasi by political scienti ts on culture as a determinant of political behavior and structure is welcome in a cholarship in which beliefs and values have too frequently been characterized as epiphenomenal. Two contribution to the Council panel drew attention, though, to the dangers of making a sumptions about popular cultural di po ition . The Trinidad noveli t, Earl Lovelace, propo ed that the uffering experienced in lave societie may have helped to develop a popular culture of re i tance ba ed on a en e of humanity engendered by lavery 6 Peter Ekch, "Coloniali m and the Two Public in Africa: A Theoreti¡ cal Statement," Comparative Studies in Society and History, 17(1), 1975.

it elf. Hi own novel, et in the idiom of Trinidad folk culture, ugge t that extemally-impo ed value and institutions were widely conte ted. People do more than bear other people' ideas, and hi torical "traditions" are con tantly ubject to rearrangement and reinterpretation. Thi point was al 0 made with considerable force in Tejumola Olaniyan' di cus ion of official depiction of "Africanity." Olaniyan's paper critized rhetorical formulation of "an inner identity that survived the vagarie of coloniali m."

Instead, he sugge ted, there exi ted "an identity that continually transformed itself in re pon e to changing condition and was thu able to understand, re i t appropriately and 0 survive coloniali m." Olaniyan' stricture concerning the Pan-Africani t di course of African governments could as well be directed at the more pe simistic academic dis ection of the cultural derivation of African politics. They point to an important re earch agenda and ugge t more po itive • political directions for the future.

Vice President Social Science Research Council Application are invited for the newly created po ition of Vice Pre ident of the Social Science Research Council. The SSRC i a non-governmental, not-for-profit academic organization founded in 1923 for the purpose of dvancing research in the social science. Its national and international programs are carried out by 25-30 committee of university-based holars in the United State and abroad, as i ted by the Pre ident and a profe ional taff of about 12 Ph.D.-level program officers.

The Vice Pre ident hould combine intellectual vi ion and scholarly achievement with a proven record of admini trative expertise and the ability to work creatively within a collegial environment.

Duties Working closely with the Pre ident and the profe ional taff, the Vice Pre ident will: Initiate and develop new scholarly program Seek funding from government and foundation source As ume re pon ibility for many internal Council function , uch as profe ional taff recruitment and development, and management of information y tern In the ab nce of the Pre ident, the Vice Pre ident will as ume major admini trative and executive function .

Qualifications Strong commitment to fostering interdi iplinary, plurali tic scholarship; ability to help create and give ove ight to multidisciplinary program, and to con truct effective links among scholars in diverse ethnic and cultural tting both in the United State and abro d.

Po tdoctoral research experience in a social or behavioral science discipline and broad familiarity with the organization of university-based research and graduate training. liai on with scholars, Track record in fundrai ing, including propo aI writing; effective communication kill and ability to act funders, and profe ional taff.

Admini trative experience at a middle-management level in academic, governmental, or other nonprofit organizations. tartin date: The Council hope to fill thi po ition by July I, 1990.

Addre

application to:

David L. Featherman, Pre ident Social Science Research Council 605 Third Avenue ew York, NY 10158

The Social Science Research Council i an Equal Opportumty Employer

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VOLUME 44, NUMBER. I

Eastern Europe-Recent Council Publications

I

The rapid pace of political change in Eastern Europe and the anticipated economic implications rai e major is ues for the study of the region in coming years.

Although published before the current upheavals, three recent Council publications provide an important historical perspective on economic reform efforts in Ea tern Europe, and the complex problems that lie ahead as political leaders in tho e countries attempt to deal with the collapse of the command economy and its aftermath.

Economic Adjustment and Reform in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union: Essays in Honor of Franklyn D. Holzman, edited by Jo ef C. Brada, Ed A. Hewett, and Thoma A. Wolf. Duke Press Policy Studies.

Ba ed on paper pre ented at a conference held at the Kennan Institute for Advanced Ru ian Studie in October 1984 and co pon ored by the Joint Committee on Ea tern Europe. Durham, North Carolina: Duke University Pres, 1988. xxv + 428 pages.

Cloth, $67.50.

This volume explores in rich detail structural economic difficultie that have been overlooked in the excitement generated by recent political developments. For example, relaxation of central economic controls, it i pointed out, does not automatically or even nece arily bring about a shift of inve tment funds away from trong sectoral and regional MARCH

1990

interests that dominated the command economy and helped to generate economic inefficiency and poor quality commodities.

Constituencies of support for such interests will surely not disappear as a more liberal political procbss develops. In fact, political liberalization could bring a strengthening of such interests as keeping local constituencies satisfied becomes an important feature of political systems throughout the region.

Similarly, as the transition to a market economy continues, East European economic relationships with the West will become more complex. In turn, East European states will experience increasingly difficult questions of compatibility with the international economic system as they seek a more intense integration with that system than has been attempted previously.

Among the questions of compatibility that remain to be re olved are: 1) domestic and external convertability of currency; 2) potential increases in the e timate of per capita GNP of East European states, which in turn could lead to the disqualification of ome of those states as Les er Developed Countries for purposes of World Bank loans; 3) con iderable economic hardship likely to be generated

by International Monetary Fund economic stabilization programs in countries where prices have traditionally not reflected market conditions and; 4) the pace of adaptability to

the trading rules of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.

Given these formidable obstacles, the volume's various contributors at variou points argue that the transition from a command economy to one predominated by market mechanisms will take place under very difficult and complex conditions.

There is no similar economic experience from which to learn in implementing such a transition, and political and foreign policy constraints make the outcome of economic decision making even more unpredictable.

Models of Disequilibrium and Shortage in Centrally Planned Economies, edited by Christopher Davis and Wojciech Charemsza.

Economic Studies in Economic Modelling. Papers ba ed on a conference held in 1987 and spon ored by the Joint Committee on Eastern Europe. London: Chapman and Hall, 1989. xv + 501 pages. Cloth, $150.00.

The volume provides a historical overview of the rea ons for the persistence of di equilibrium and shortage in command economies. The principal cau es cited are specific in titutional arrangements uch as pervasive state administration of economic decision making, policy choice such as the decision to industrialize rapidly and collectivize agriCUlture, a shortage of available re ources, poor climate, and wartime effects.

The various studies provide comprehensive surveys of the ITEMS/19

theoretical foundations of disequilibrium and shortage models. The book al 0 contains chapters on macroeconomic disequilibrium models of Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia, and on ectoral disequilibrium and shortage models of consumption, investment, foreign trade, the automobile market, and the medical system in a number of East European countries.

The models presented in the volume offer interesting insights into how the major economic reforms now under way or being contemplated will be played out.

In particular, economic decision makers will have to overcome several tructural phenomena which have become distinctive features of the command economy. These include non-price mechanisms to control commodities, paternalistic relations between superiors and subordinates at points of economic decision making, largely autonomous behavior of lower-level economic units, persistent sellers markets, chronic shortages, and excess demand. Moreover, potentially applicable Western models of correcting mechanisms to disequilibrium and shortage have continuing methodological problems. In particular, the political environment of East European countries is haped by deeply-held and widespread views that certain liberal economics principles such as toleration of increased unemployment to deal with disequilibrium should be rejected.

The Origins of Backwardness in Eastern Europe: Economics & Politics from the Middle Ages 2O\ITEMS

until the Early Twentieth Century, edited by Daniel Chirot. Papers from a conference held in 1985 and spon ored by the Joint Committee on Eastern Europe. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989. ix + 260 page. Cloth, $35.00.

This book is an impressive contribution to the social and economic history of Eastern Europe and reaches back several centurie to ascertain the root causes of Ea t European backwardne .

The authors eek to an wer the classic que tion of why the pace of economic growth varies.

Eastern Europe is a particularly interesting place to study this problem. It is diverse, including at least four geographic zones that have been present from the early Middle Ages until today, and it is close to We tern Europe, 0 that economic contrasts can be clearly drawn.

The authors argue that the weight of established class relations, geography, lack of technological innovation, and continual wartime conditions kept the area from developing as rapidly in economic terms. With the collap e of various imperial regimes at the beginning of the 20th century, nationalism and the creations of newly-independent aspiring nation-states then began to shape national economies, often in unfavorable ways.

One of this study's more theoretically interesting findings is that while economic help to influence political outcomes, it does not determine them in every case. It is argued that Poland, for example, had a higher level of economic development than

Ru ia, but 10 t its role as a great power because of an array of domestic political factors.

Exposed to the same market forces as Prussia, political outcomes were opposite. A such, the volume offers no simple explanations, but rather a theoretically-complex synthesis that demonstrates the interaction of politics and economic , and demonstrates in still another important way the complexity of future developments in both during this exciting time of transition in Eastern Europe.

Workshops on Soviet and East European Economics For a number of years, the Council' Joint Committee on Soviet Studie has been treating y tematically the evolution of the economie of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe through a program of annual ummer work. hop . These workshop have played a major role in building a well-trained cadre of young economists who can deal intellectually and methodologically with the major economic change in the region.

The ixth annual Summer Work.hop on Soviet and East European Economic will be held at the University of Pittsburgh on July 8-19, 1990. With the political change rapidly unfolding in Eastern Europe, the workshop will now offer as well opportunities for both junior and senior economi ts from the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe to evaluate economic methodologie and theorie for application in the economic reform effort that has become a critical priority in tho e countrie. Thi year' upcoming workshop i expected to produce further new research on the complex economic que tion that are analyzed in the above volume and will continue to challenge both the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe in the years ahead.

VOLUME

44,

NUMBER

1

Other Council Publications American Indians: The Fir t of This Land, by C. Matthew Snipp. A publication in the erie "The Population of the United State in the 1980 ." Spon ored by the Committee for Re earch on the 1980 Cen u . New York: Ru ell Sage Foundation, 1989. xxvii + 408 page . Cloth, $49.95. [Thi volume will be di cu ed in an article which will appear in the June i ue of Items.]

Las ciudades en contlicto: Una per pectiva latinoamericana [Citie in Conflict: A Latin American Per pective], edited by Mario Lombardi and Danilo Veiga. Paper ba ed on a 1988 eminar pon ored by the Joint Committee on Latin American Studie . Montevideo: Centro de Informacione y E tudio del UruguaylEdiciones de la Banda Oriental, 1989. 307 page.

In the 1960 and 1970 there was a general con en u among cholar that in Latin America , a well a other part of the Third World, import- ub titution indu trialization under the control of multinational corporation had led to a rapid proce of urbanization ba ed on rapid migration out of rural area , largely directed to one major city, u ually th political capital and emerging indu trial center. Thi literature al 0 identified unequal income di tribution, patial polarization of cia e , and low level of open unemployment combined with high level of informal employment, as the major characteri tic of urban center .

M

ReH

1990

The two comparative article included in thi volume challenge thi view. Orlandina de Oliveira and Bryan Robert' analy i of change in the urban ocial tructure of ix of the large t countrie in Latin America inee 1940, lead them to que tion the exi tence of a unique pattern in the region. In fact, they conclude that the proce e of urbanization, indu trialization, and growth of the ervice ector have led to growing difference among the countrie tudied. Alejandro Porte ' analy i of major Latin American citie during the cri i of the 1980 point to orne ignificant deviation from pattern identified in the literature, including the growth of econdary citie , a decrea e in the patial eparation of cia es, and the emergence of unprecedented level of open unemployment.

The exi tence of distinct pattern of urban tran formation in different region and period al 0 emerge from the ca e tudie of Bueno Aire , Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Santiago, and Montevideo in recent decade. In contrast to the previou literature which po ited a imple relation hip between the pattern of indu trialization and urbanization, the e e ay take into account the patial dimen ion of economic, political, ocial, and cultural tran formation , contributing to the development of a more comprehen ive view of urbanization in Latin America.

Parenting Acro the Lifespan: Biosocial Dimensions, edited by Jane B. Lanca ter, Jeanne

Altmann, Alice S. Ro i, and Lonnie R. Sherrod. Paper from a conference pon ored by the Committee on Bio ocial Per pective on Parent Behavior and Off pring Development. Hawthorne, New York: Aldine de Gruyter, 1987. xiii + 474 page.

Cloth, $47 .95 .

In the pa t decade, re earch on the life cour e ha developed around two eparate foci.

Evolutionary biology provided fre h per pective of life hi tory trategie from behavioral ecology and parental inve tment theory from ociobiology. At the arne time the ocial and behavioral cience began to integrate re earch from long-term tudie of individual development and from the collection of life hi torie .

The biological, behavioral, and ocial cience have begun to reap the benefit of mature theory and rich data bae .

The purpo e of thi book i to advance life cour e re earch by integrating the per pective of the e two foci into a bio ocial cience of the life cour e. It examine parenthood a a commitment extending throughout the life cour e and focu e on the impact on parental and child behavior of change in the timing, di tribution, and inten ity of parental commitment. The bio ocial per pective i particularly appropriate for re earch on parenting ince the family i the univer al in titution within which the bearing of children ha been ba ed and which tran mit tradition , belief , and value to the young. Thi per pective ITEM 121

encompa e the biological ub trata and the ocial environment a determinant of behavior pattern .

The author analyze areas in which contemporary human parental behavior exhibit continuitie with, and departure from, pattern evident throughout human hi tory. Examining the co ts and benefit of di continuitie in family behavio make po ible an objective a e ment of them in modem circum tance .

By reviewing the variety of current parenting practice~, a well a tho e of the evolutionary and hi torical past, the book portray the available option and provide a bru.i for evaluating them.

Rural and Small Town America, by Glenn V. Fuguitt, David L. Brown, and Calvin L. Beale.

A publication in the erie "The

22\ITEM

Population of the United State in the 1980 ." Sponored by the Committee for Re earch on the 1980 Cen u . New York: Ru ell Sage Foundation, 1989. xxvii + 471 page. Cloth, $55.00.

Important difference persi t between rural and urban America, de pite profound economic change and the notoriou homogenizing influence of the media. A the authors demontrate, the much-heralded di appearance of mall town life ha not come to pa ,and the nonmetropolitan population till con titute a ignificant dimen ion of our nation' ocial tructure.

Ba ed on cen u and other recent urvey data, thi tudy provide a detailed and comparative picture of rural America. The author find that ize of place i a critical demographic factor,

affecting population compo ition, the di tribution of poverty, and employment opportunitie .

Pointing out that rural life i no longer ynonymou with farming, they explore variation among nonmetropolitan population . They al 0 trace the impact of major national trend the nonmetropolitan growth purt of the 1970 and its current rever aI, for example, or changing fertility rate -on rural life and on the relation hip between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan communitie .

By de cribing the pecial characteri tic and need of rural population a well as the feature they hare with urban America, thi book clearly demon trate that a more accurate picture of non metropolitan life i e ential to understanding the larger dynamic of our ociety.

VOLUME 44, NUMBER I

Notes Fulbright cholar Program

• January 1, 1991: ATO Research Fellow hip and Spain Research Fellow hip

The Coun iI for International Exchange of Scholars (CIES) has announ ed the opening of competition for 1991-92 Fulbright grant in re~earch and unive~ity lecturing abroad.

For more information and application , call or write Council for International Exchange of Scholars, 3400 International Drive, Suite M-SOO. Wa hington, D.C. 20008-3097. Telephone 2021 686-7866.

The award for 1991-92 include about 1,000 grant in research and university lecturing for period ranging from three month to a full academic year. There are opening in over 100 countrie and, in many regions, the opportunity exi t for multicountry re arch. Fulbright award are granted in virtually all di ipline, and holm in all academic ranks are eligible to apply. Application are encouraged from retired faculty and independent holars.

Grant benefits, which vary by country, generally include round-trip travel for the grantee and, for mo t full academic-year awards, one dependent; tipend in U.S. dollars and/or local currency; tuition allowance for school-age children in many countrie ; and book and baggage allowance .

The b ic eligibility requirements for a Fulbright award are U.S. citizen hip; Ph.D. or comparable profe ional qualification; univel'5ity or college teaching experience; and, for selected ignments, proficiency in a foreign language. There i no limit on the number of Fulbright grant a ingle cholar can hold, but there mu t be a three-year interval between award .

Application deadline for the awards are: • June 15, 1990: Au tralasia, India, the Soviet Union, and Latin America, except lecturing award to Mexico, Venezuela, and the Caribbean. (Note: new deadline for Soviet Union) • August 1, 1990: Africa, A ia, We tern Europe, Eastern Europe, the Middle Ea t, and lecturing award to Mexico, Venezuela, and the Caribbean; travel-only award to France, Italy, and Federal Republic of Germany ( ote: new deadlines) • November 1, 1990: Institutional propo al for Scholarm-Residence Program • November I, 1990: International Education Admini trators Program in Federal Republic of Germany, United Kingdom, and Japan and the Fulbright German Studie Seminar

MARCH

1990

CIES 1991-92 Advanced Research FeUowship in India The Indo-U.S. Subcommi ion on Education and Culture i offering twelve long-term (6-10 month) and nine hort-term (2-3 month) award for 1991-92 research in India. These grant will be available in all academic di cipline , except cllmcal medicine.

Applicant mu t be U.S. citizen at the po tdoctoral or equivalent profe ional level. The fellow hip program seek to open new channel of communication between academic and profe ional group in the United State and India and to encourage a wider range of research activity between the two countrie than now exist . Therefore, scholars and profe ional with limited or no prior experience in India are e pecially encouraged to apply.

Fellow hip terms include: $1,500 per month, of which $350 per month i payable in dollars and the balance in rupee ; an allowance for book and tudy/travel in India; and international travel for the grantee. In addition, long-term fellow receive international travel for dependents; a dependent allowance of $100- 250 per month in rupee; and a upplementary research allowance up to 34,000 rupee. Thi program i ponsored by the Indo-U.S. Subcommi ion on Education and Culture and i funded by the United State Information Agency, the National Science Foundation, The Smith onian In titution, and the Government of India.

The application deadline i June IS, 1990. Application form and further information are available from: Council for International Exchange of Scholars (CIES) Attn: Indo-American Fellow hip Program 3400 International Drive, Suite M-500 Washington, D.C. 20008-3097 Telephone: 2021686-40 13 Contact: Lydia Z. Gome , Senior A ociate, India Program , Telephone: 2021686-40 17.

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SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH COUNCIL 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK, NY 10158 The Council ",a incorporated in the State of II/inois, INumber 27, 1924, for the purpose of advancing research in the social scienus. Nongovernmental and interdisciplinary in nature, the Council appoints commi((us of scholars which suk to achieve the Council's purpose through the generation of new ideas and the training of scholars. Th activities of the Council are supponed primarily by grants from private foundations and government agencies.

Directors. 19 9-90: CLAUDE AXE. University of Port Harcourt; SUZA ED. BERGER. Ma chusetts Institute of Technology; RICHARD A. Bux. University of California, Los Angele ; ALA S. BLI DER. Princeton University; ROBUT M. COEN. Northwe tern University; ROBERT DARNTON, Princeton University; KAt T. EllKSO • Yale University; DAVID L. FEATHERMA • Social Science Research Council; GARD EIt LI DZEY, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Science; BEVI loNGSTRETH. Debevoise & Plimpton; EMILY MARTI ,The John Hopkin University; WlLLlAM H. SEWELL. JR., University of Michigan; BURTON H. SINGER, Yale University; FRA CIS X. SUTTON, Dobb Ferry, New York; MARTA TIE DA, University of Chicago; ROBERT B. ZAJo c, University of Michigan.

Officers and Staff: DAVID L. FEATHERMA • President; Ro ALD J. I'ELECX. Controller; GLORIA KIR HHEIMER, Editor; DollE SI OCCHI. Assistant to the President; YA MI E ERGAS, MARTHA A. GEPHART, ROBERT T. HUBER, TOM loDGE, RAQ EL OVRY RIVERA, ROBERT W. PEARSO ,SILVtA RAw, RI HAlO C. ROCKWELL, DAVID L. SZANTO. TOBY ALI E VOLKMA .

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