Items Vol. 16 No. 4 (1962)

Page 1



ROBERT TREAT CRANE 1880-1962 by Pendleton Herring

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ROBERT TREAT CRANE was Executive Director of the make to the understanding of social relations and of pubSocial Science Research Council from 1931 to 1945. lic affairs. Mr. Crane was born in Baltimore and received his He was a leader in that small group of hopeful men who in 1922 explicitly recognized the need for joint efforts bachelor's degree from Johns Hopkins University in among the social sciences if knowledge of human behav- 1902. He took his doctorate in political science there in ior was to be advanced, and over the next two years 1907. Before becoming an officer of the Council he brought about the organization of the Council. This taught for many years at the University of Michigan, group acted in the confidence that where needs existed where he was also Director of the Bureau of Governand responsible members of the academic community ment, and at the University of Chicago and Stanford cooperated, ways and means for fulfilling their de- University. Upon relinquishing his Council duties in fined purpose could be found. The social science asso- 1945 he served on the Johns Hopkins faculty for several ciations responded, the Council was launched, and in years. Notice of his death on October 23 brought to his many friends and former associates a sharp recollection due course financial support was secured. During the Council's formative years Mr. Crane was of his contribution to social science advancement during the central continuing influence for steady and prudent a critical period and of the kind of man he was: quiet development. He was skeptical of proposals that reflected in manner, firm in purpose, unmindful of self, he rethe fads of the day, and he was willing to take a negative mained dedicated to what he frankly viewed as a high stand if policies did not meet his standards; yet through- but difficult and distant goal. The Council's debt to the out his career he was motivated by a deep faith in the man whose faith and patient effort gave it shape cannot ultimate contribution that the scientific method could be measured.

THE SECOND SUMMER CONFERENCE ON AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF THE UNITED STATES: SUMMARY REPORT by Lawrence R. Klein ... THE partIClpants in the econometric mode1building project of the Council's Committee on Economic Stability met for a second summer session, August 6-17, 1962,

at Dartmouth College. 1 In the original conception of this project, specialists on major sectors of the economy of the United States were to come to the first summer ses-

• The author, Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsyl· _ vania, is a co·director of the econometric model building project of the . , Committee on Economic Stability. He presented the substance of this report informally at the annual meeting of the Council's board of directors in September.

1 For a report on the first summer conference, see Items, September 1961, pp. 34-36. An econometric model is there defined as a system of mathematical equations with statistically determined coefficients (determined from actual observations of the working of the economy) that at· tempts to describe economic activity. The committee's project is con-


tain amount of logical choice in the way of introducing the identities, and until this has been ultimately resolved, the exact number of equations cannot be specified. In addition, when we improve certain relationships AI or tie up our loose ends, we may find it necessary to intro- . . duce some new endogenous variables and new equations to explain them. The aggregative model differs from the disaggregated model essentially in the number of production sectors of the economy. The aggregative version is subdivided into agriculture, durable manufacturing, nondurable manufacturing, and "all other" sectors. We may decompose the "all other" category into three. The disaggregated model will consist of approximately thirty sectors. This means more individual equations to explain each sector's output, employment, investment, prices, wages, and so on. The consequent enlargement of the model becomes evident. There are various other ways of enlarging or disaggregating the system, and some of these are contemplated for future work. These consist of more detail in the monetary sector (at present we seek only to explain some leading interest rates), in foreign trade or the balance of payments, in government activities, or in consumer spending. We hope to have a living model that will be kept up to date, continuously improved, and explored for the possibility of incorporating further sector detail.

sion, in 1961, with the best possible hypotheses obtainable for the explanation of activity in assigned sectors. 2 To some extent this stage of the project was hypothetical or theoretical and not closely coordinated with related research of other members of the group. However, many of the resulting presentations at the 1961 session did in fact contain exploratory calculations with observational data. For the second stage of the project it was planned at the beginning that revised hypotheses that had been subjected to empirical test and description would be presented at the 1962 summer conference in a form that could be integrated with the contributions from all sectors into a model of the economy as a whole. In retrospect, I think work has developed much as we originally planned it. At the 1961 conference the presentations were intentionally unstructured. Each specialist received a good deal of constructive criticism, out of which grew a number of "ideas by association." Three weeks of steady bickering around a seminar table proved to be a good method for developing ideas. The concrete results of this first meeting were a general idea as to the form of the model to be developed, agreement on the types of data to be used, and a number of specific hypotheses to be tested. We were able to draft an outline of a model that followed the sense of the group. In developing the project, we have considered models at two levels-an aggregative model of approximately 100 equations, and a larger disaggregated system that will eventually have approximately 300 equations. These sizes are only approximate because some equations have not yet been fully specified; there are some loose ends in the system; and not all the accounting relations and identities have yet been decided upon. There is a cer-



In comparison with earlier attempts at modelbuilding, several features of the present scheme make it distinctive and give promise of improved results: 1. The committee's model will be large. Even the aggregative version of 100 equations is much larger than other schemes now in use or proposed. 2. Anticipatory data are treated more adequately in this model. Other models have used investment intentions, buying plans, and orders, but not on as comprehensive a basis. We have developed, with some success, equations that give endogenous explanation of these variables. When we do not treat anticipatory variables as endogenous, we shall develop equations in parallel-with and without these variables-so that extrapolation or simulation calculations can be carried further ahead than for the anticipated period. 3. Govern~ent is being treated partially and wherever pOSSIble as an endogenous sector. This provides a substantial departure from textbook models and indeed, from empirical schemes now in use. ' 4. Input-output models have been blended with tra~itional final demand.m?dels. The principal use of _ mput-output m~d~ls IS m the conversion of prices W from 0~se pertammg to production sectors to those pertammg to final demand sectors. This approach

cerned with such statistical systems that describe activity throughout the economy as a whole. The members of the committee are Bert G. Hickman, Brookings Institution (chairman); Moses Abramovitz, Stanford University; Martin Bron路 fenbrenner, Carnegie Institute of Technology; James S. Duesenberry, Harvard University; R. A. Gordon, University of California, Berkeley; Lawrence R. Klein, University of Pennsylvania; David W. Lusher, Coun路 cil of Economic Advisers; and Geoffrey H. Moore, National Bureau of Economic Research. 2 See ibid. for a list of the sectors and research areas in which assignments were accepted by 16 principal investigators. Since that time the following economists have accepted responsibility for work in these areas: government receipts and expenditures, E. Cary Brown with the cooperation of Earl Adams and Albert Ando, all of Massachusetts Institute of Technology; input-output applications, Jarvis Babcock of the University of Michigan. Frank de Leeuw of the Federal Reserve System is assisting Daniel H. Brill in the monetary sector; and Joseph Tryon of Georgetown University is working with Charles L. Schultze on prices and wages. For work in the near future we have secured the cooperation of Michael Lovell of Yale University, to assist in strengthening the analysis of inventories and orders, and of Avram Kisselgoff of Allied Chemical Corporation, to estimate relationships involving consumer credit.


promises to give a better endogenous treatment of price levels than has been found in previous models. 5. Labor supply and marriage rates are endogenous variables in this system. 6. The money market is given more careful treatment and is more firmly tied to the other sectors than in previous models. PROGRESS MADE IN 1962 For the 1962 conference we had nearly complete presentations of single-equation least-squares estimates of the relations that will be taken into account in the aggregative model. Some of these were known in crude form at the 1961 conference; some were available at our interim meeting in February; but most were put before the group for discussion for the first time this past summer. The data used by all participants were on a uniform basis, and many questions that were posed in 1961 were cleared up by the newer calculations. Our method of using input-output models for price conversion involved exploration of unknown territory. We now have promise of success in that venture. One of the loose ends left from last year, the explanation of agricultural income, has been well taken care of in a submodel consisting of several equations. We now have an apparently satisfactory explanation of the market for housing starts, and the estimation of value of construction from starts, and another equation on unit structure value. The conference discussion made clear that we lack an equation for the rent index level, but that deficiency in the model will soon be corrected. The equations for labor force participation rates by broad age-sex groups are very promising. They show definite relationships between labor supply and economic variables. We have not yet selected from among the trial calculations presented the final result to be used, but it is clear that labor supply will be endogenous in our model. For the first time we have obtained detail on tax functions, transfer payment functions, and government expenditures relationships. Some specific taxes have been closely tied to associated final demand variables elsewhere in the model. Further work is to be done on government expenditures and in tidying up the whole area of taxes so that we shall have enough disaggregation to help us in policy analysis, to fit in with the degree of disaggregation in the rest of the system, and to provide stable relationships. This work is not completed but is in good hands and under control. The wage and price equations carried out the calculations proposed last year, as did the equations for labor demand and factor shares. There was fruitful discussion of methods of improving the factor share equations, on which more work is to be done. The equations for interest rates were presented to the

participants in the project for the first time, and the discussion was extremely helpful in enabling us to see the structure of this part of the model. Import and export equations were in suitable form as early as February, but in August we discussed further the need for more detailed subgroups for an expanded future model. We have an interesting export equation and probably some of the first good estimates of American export elasticities, which throw light on important trade issues. The matter of more refined disaggregation of exports was discussed. The work on investment behavior has followed two lines. One has been the explanation of fulfillment of investment expectations. Equations expressing fulfillment will certainly be useful in short-run forecasting. For a longer period ahead, we would need to be able to explain expectations. We have parallel calculations of investment functions, (1) with actual investment, and (2) with planned investment, as the dependent variable; thus we should be able to project the model into the future, either using or not using expectations. Computed consumption functions and inventory equations were presented. A number of revised calculations were suggested in the discussion, and work on them was begun immediately after the conference. The equations for inventories make use of orders variables, but little has been done on this part of the model, and some future work is being planned. There was also discussion of the possibility of using production decision instead of inventory demand functions. Data were collected, while the conference was in session, on automobile production, dealers' stocks, and sales. These should provide a favorable basis for the estimation of production decision equations showing the adjustment of output levels to the inventory and sales positions, but our calculations in Hanover did not suggest that more useful results would come from this line of thought. As an outcome of two years of research by all participants and the two summer conferences, we were able to draw up a flow diagram of the model and summarize, among all the many preliminary estimates of equations that individuals have made, a nearly complete model on the aggregative level mentioned. Every presentation came in for its share of constructive criticism, and each participant has been urged to submit new calculations that account for loose ends, use better data, or add some new variables. All the estimates are being collected in a central file at the University of Pennsylvania, together with a complete set of data. Some preliminary estimates will also be recomputed there. It is expected that in a few months we shall be in a position to estimate the model as a whole by more powerful methods that take account of the simultaneity and lag structure of the entire system. These 39

we held an organizational meeting, at which it became clear that the participants in our project had indeed found a fruitful basis of research cooperation that we want to continue indefinitely into the future. With the ... two models being planned, we still have much to do and • can readily conceive of specialized or more refined studies along the same lines continuing as far ahead as we care to look. We therefore agreed that the committee should seek means of perpetuating its project and continuing our joint research effort. We do not plan to meet in the summer of 1963 but will reconvene as a group when a model has been fully estimated and applied. By 1964 or 1965, we should be ready for this stage. We agreed that a permanent research base should be sought for the model, where it could be maintained and extended by a small permanent staff. In that case special projects could be undertaken by members of the larger research team, and periodically the group as a whole could consider the entire model. The group would include the present collaborators, but additions or retirements would be possible. To present our results to a wider audience we made two decisions at the summer conference. We shall present a summary and some specialized findings in a session of the Econometric Society to be held in Pittsburgh in December. The directors of the project will present a joint paper on the model as a whole. Papers on the for- a eign trade sector and the housing sector will be presented • by Rudolf Rhomberg and Sherman Maisel, respectively. Outside discussants will be invited to appraise these papers and criticize them. We expect to prepare a book presenting the results of the entire project. The summary paper to be presented at the Econometric Society meeting will serve as an introductory chapter. Each participant will prepare chapters on the sector for which he is responsible, and applications and estimation problems will be dealt with in chapters by Charles Holt and Franklin Fisher.

methods were discussed at Dartmouth in the light of the flow diagram and the preliminary equations submitted by individual investigators. A LOOK AHEAD While centralized research on the whole model is going on at the Wharton School, individuals are expected to continue research in their respective sectors, especially on the basis of finer breakdowns for the larger model. The research of groups of participants is being monitored by James Duesenberry and Lawrence Klein, the project coordinators, with Edwin Kuh. As soon as a consistent model can be fully estimated, we plan to start work on applications-the first being short-run forecasting and simulation. Charles Holt, with assistance from the Social Systems Research Institute at the University of Wisconsin, will make simulation runs, before the complete model is ready, on the quarterly model of T. C. Liu of Cornell University. Liu's model was presented to the seminar at Dartmouth in a guest lecture. We also plan some simulation runs of truncated subsystems within the complete model. These can be done with the preliminary estimates now in hand. A not inconsiderable result of our work to date has been the preparation of a large number of unusual time series that might not otherwise have been produced. These can be made available to other research scholars for quite different studies. Notable among these new series are those of gross national product originating in thirty sectors of the economy, together with price deflators, wages, employment, and capital stock in these same sectors. A number of university, research, and government agencies have helped this project immensely by making computer time, research assistance, data, and other facilities available to us. For this help we are indeed grateful. At the conclusion of the second summer conference

AN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC HISTORY ASSOCIATION by Thomas C. Cochran· AT THE end of August, in Aix-en-Provence, economic historians held their first independent international meeting. The movement that led to this gathering grew from discontent with the time allotted to economic history in the quinquennial programs of the International • The author, Professor of History at the University of Pennsylvania and a member of the board of directors of the Social Science Research Council, represented the Council at the Second International Conference on Economic History in Aix-en-Provence, August 29 - September 4, 1962.


Congress of the Historical Sciences. Before the 1960 meeting of the Congress at Stockholm a group, led by M. M. Postan of Cambridge University as chairman, Fernand Braudel of the University of Paris, and Ernst Soderlund of the University of Stockholm, gained the consent of the Executive Committee of the Congress for a three-day meeting of economic historians in advance of the week-long meeting of the main Congress. This made the economic history group an "External Com-


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mission" of the Congress, a status held by some other specialists such as Latin American historians. Approximately 250 economic historians at the Stockholm meeting decided that five years was too long an interval between sessions and voted to hold an independent meeting in 1962. As a result of this popular mandate, the ad hoc executive group was authorized to co-opt a more representative committee and to develop plans for an international organization. Braudel, Postan, and Soderlund expanded their committee to include one representative each from Poland, the Soviet Union, and the United States. This group arranged for the meeting at Aix, decided on the main topics of the program, and made plans for the future. Since much of the world-wide interest in economic history centers on agriculture and government policy toward agriculture, support for the organization of the meeting was obtained from the Schalkenbach Foundation, which also financed part of the travel of the Far Eastern delegates. The only other direct financial assistance given the committee came from the Asia Foundation, which paid the travel expenses of some members of the Japanese delegation. The meeting itself was substantially subsidized by the French government, which opened the dormitories of the University of Aix-enProvence for use by the delegates and supplied meals for seven days at much below cost. Such arrangements presumably would not have been possible in the United States or some other Western countries. In addition, the Ecole Practique des Hautes Etudes of the University of Paris will publish the papers read at the meeting. The committee had anticipated an attendance of about 150 and had pictured the meeting as a new and happy compromise between that of a specially invited small group and the sessions of a large national or international organization. While the enthusiasm of the profession frustrated this hope, it indicated that the new organization was performing a useful service. Some 450 scholars registered and many more, including wives, attended the sessions. The largest number of registrants, 73, came from the United Kingdom, a few less from France, and 55 from the United States. With 25 registrants Sweden led the smaller nations. Except for 15 from Japan there were only a few representatives from countries outside Europe and North America. No Latin American was officially registered, and with one exception the Africans were from the North Coast. Among the Communist nations only Hungary and Poland had substantial representation. The role of economic history in bringing together not only economists and historians but other social scientists as well was again illustrated. Experience has long indicated that active interdisciplinary cooperation is

best achieved around problems, and economic development has proved to be one of the most comprehensive and provocative. Historians listened attentively while theorists explained typologies or models, and both took part in discussion of statistical series. Limiting the official languages to English and French helped to keep discussion comprehensible to most of those present. The discussions as a whole indicated that the Communist and United States representatives were the most interested in applying theory to history. To Americans, the Communist models seemed the more arbitrary and less closely fitted to the available data. Marxist assumptions regarding the relationships and effects of imperialism, in the British Empire particularly, seemed rigid and narrow. Evidence concerning many less advanced areas, which has been accumulated in recent years by Western scholars, indicates that nations with complete political freedom often show the same lag in industrial development that the Communists attribute to imperial restraints. United States and some English economists were leaders in applying eclectic, middle level, theoretical models to the interpretation of historical data. Although these models have no clear politico-economic ideology, they also are open to the danger of over-simplification, of the exclusion of too many variables. In comparison with the theoretical bent of the relatively small number of scientific Marxists and AngloAmerican theorists, the other members of the conference seemed empirically oriented. Their theoretical bents did not go much beyond "stages of growth" or other primarily descriptive frameworks. The amount of new data that need to be assembled and sorted in order to write the economic history of most of the world is so vast that pursuit of facts usually seems to foreign scholars the first necessity. Furthermore, in most nations, training in economic theory for those interested in history is less widespread than in America and England. Hence there is not the same challenge to unite the findings of the two disciplines. Even in the United States the theoretical economic group is a small minority of the total historical profession. The prevailing a-theoretical attitude, however, did not prevent Marxians and anti-Marxians from showing their usual differences in selection and evaluation of data. These differences produced occasional emotional outbursts but, on the whole, discussion was maintained on a scholarly level above that of the Stockholm conference of 1960. One could come away with the impression that the common ground of accepted fact was broadening, and that both sides were more intellectually interested in listening to each other. Although in discussion industrialism tended to steal the center of the stage, most of the economic history of 41

The meeting was judged such a success in promoting understanding between disciplines and between nationalities that there was no doubt about creating an international organization which would arrange for subsequent gatherings at two- or three-year intervals. A new Executive Committee with representatives from Czechoslovakia, England, France, Germany, Poland, the Soviet Union, Sweden, and the United States was elected by those present at a plenary session, without dissent, and given the task of drafting a constitution to be voted on in 1965. This committee was also empowered to choose its own executives, who until 1965 would be in effect the officers of the Association. Subsequently, the committee made H. J. Habakkuk of Oxford University Secretary and Fernand Braudel President. M. M. Postan was named Honorary President. The only issue that occasioned controversy at the plenary session was the relationship of the International Economic History Association to the Congress of Historical Sciences. Some of the participants in the session, including many economists, favored independence from any other organization, but it was decided for the present to continue in the status of an External Commission of the Congress. Whatever the future status of the Association, it will no doubt plan to meet near the time and place of the Congress of Historical Sciences at five-year intervals and near the International Economic Association meetings in one of the interim years.

the non-European world concerns agricultural development. Four of the ten major topics or "Sections" of the conference and two of the three general or plenary sessions dealt primarily with agriculture. While titles convey little of the substance of the papers and discussions, the following list is at least indicative of the range of interest of the participants: Plenary Sessions 1. Loyers, benefices, investissements et taux d'interet 2. Agrarian Problems of Underdeveloped Societies 3. Industrial Expansion and the Working Classes

Section Meetings (each running over several days) 1. Trade and Politics in the Ancient World 2. Medieval Economy: Problems of Capital Formation, Agrarian Development of Medieval Italy, Agriculture in the Slavonic Regions 3. History of Prices and Economic Fluctuations 4-5. Agrarian History of the Modem Era (In general, Section 4 was on large estate agriculture in Europe between the sixteenth and nineteenth centuries, and Section 5 on factors in land reform in underdeveloped areas.) 6. Rural Industries and Artisans 7. Typology of Industrialization 8. Capital Formation in the Early Stages of Industrialization 9. Historical Problems of Colonial Development 10. Methodology and Terminology in Social and Economic History

COMMITTEE BRIEFS COMPARATIVE POLITICS Gabriel A. Almond (chairman), Leonard Binder, R. Taylor Cole, James S. Coleman, Herbert Hyman, Joseph LaPalombara, Lucian W. Pye, Sidney Verba, Robert E. Ward, Myron Weiner; staff, Bryce Wood. In addition to the series of 5-day seminars on research on political development and democratization in non-Western areas, held by the committee since September 1961, the committee held a workshop on the modernization of political culture, at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, from July 2 through August 13, 1962. The participants undertook to develop a number of models of political modernization, beginning with a classification of types of political systems, assuming "inputs" or "investments" of particular kinds and magnitudes into specific social and political institutions and processes, and then sketching probable consequences for social and political structures and the operation of the political system. The full-


time participants included Messrs. Almond, Binder, Coleman, LaPalombara, Sigmund Neumann (a member of the committee until his death in October), Pye, Verba, and Ward, and Robert E. Scott of the University of Illinois. The following consultants joined the group for shorter periods: Carl J. Friedrich and Alex Inkeles, Harvard University; Daniel Lerner and Ithiel de Sola Pool, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Dankwart A. Rustow, Brookings Institution; and Frederick C. Barghoorn and Robert E. Lane, Yale University. Papers were prepared for discussion and revision at the workshop, on the political culture of particular countries, their significant historical experiences, social and psychological features, and potential direction of changes in attitudes. It is expected that the results of the summer's work, theoretical papers commissioned by the committee for preparation in 1963, and a concluding institute planned for the summer of 1963 will comprise a number of monographs in the committee's series. The fourth seminar planned by the committee was held


at Gould House, Dobbs Ferry, N. Y., on September 10-14, 1962, under the co-direction of Messrs. Ward and Rustow. The three preceding seminars had considered communicafA tions, bureaucracy, and education, respectively, in relation • to political development; the fourth seminar compared the experience of Japan and Turkey as two countries that have made sustained efforts at rapid "modernization." Papers were prepared for the seminar by Richard L. Chambers, St. Lawrence University; Roderic H. Davison, George Washington University; R. P. Dore, London School of Economics and Political Science; Frederick W. Frey, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Roger F. Hackett, University of Michigan; John Whitney Hall, Yale University; Nobutaka Ike, Stanford University; Halil Inalcik, University of Ankara; Masamichi Inoki, Kyoto University; Kemal H . Karpat, New York University; S. Kato, University of British Columbia; William W. -Lockwood, Princeton University; Arif T. Payaslioglu, Middle East Technical University, Ankara; Robert A. Scalapino, University of California, Berkeley; Peter F. Sugar, University of Washington; and by Mr. Rustow. In addition to the authors of papers and Messrs. Hyman, LaPalombara, and Wood, the seminar was attended by Richard K. Beardsley and Haruhiro Fukui, University of Michigan; Wolfram Eberhard, University of California, Berkeley; Charles Frankel, Samuel P. Huntington, and James Morley, Columbia University; Manfred Halpern, Princeton University; Pendleton Herring; Bert F. Hoselitz, University of Chicago; Takeshi Ishida, Tokyo University; . . Akdes Nimet Kurat, University of Ankara; Herbert Passin, . , University of Washington; James A. Perkins, Carnegie Corporation of New York; G. E. von Grunebaum, University of California, Los Angeles; and Walter F. Weiker, Brookings Institution. The papers prepared for the seminar are being edited by Messrs. Ward and Rustow, and will appear in the committee's monograph series, "Studies in Political Development," which will be published by the Princeton University Press. The first volume in the series, Communications and Political Development, edited by Mr. Pye, is scheduled for publication in the spring of 1963. CONTEMPORARY CHINA (Joint with American Council of Learned Societies)

In view of the absence of a code of law in Communist China, the conference gave attention to the possibility that substantial agreement might be reached among specialists on the equivalents of key legal terms currently employed in China, particularly those involving new concepts that have superseded those employed in the Republican period. One-word definitions were not regarded as adequate in many cases, and it was thought that exchanges of "definitional essays" might be a useful step toward agreement. The participants also expressed interest in arranging for translations of certain materials in Chinese, for bibliographical work on materials in Western languages, and in providing channels of communication and collaboration between legal scholars in the United States and their counterparts abroad. It was proposed that ways and means to carry out these suggestions be explored. Arrangements have subsequently been made with Philip R. Bilancia, formerly of Hughes, Hubbard, Blair & Reed, New York, to work with Mr. Cohen in a survey of possibilities. Papers made available at the conference were: "Law in Communist China: Items for a Bibliography," by Albert P. Blaustein, Rutgers University; and "Laws and Statutes of Communist China: Preliminary Bibliographic Notes on Chinese Texts and Translations," by Richard Sorich, Columbia University. At an informal evening session a paper, "Chinese Tradition and Communist Law," was read by Clarence Morris, University of Pennsylvania. A session on Chinese law, in addition to a scheduled round table on the subject, was planned for the annual meeting of the Association for Asian Studies, to be held in Philadelphia in March 1963. Participants in the conference, in addition to Messrs. Bilancia, Blaustein, Cohen, Morris, Sorich, and Wood, included: Derk Bodde and W. Allyn Rickett, University of Pennsylvania; David Buxbaum, Harvard University; Francis X. Dwyer and Tao-tai Hsia, Library of Congress; Whitmore Gray, Luke Lee, and Kenneth Wang, University of Michigan; John N. Hazard and Fu-shun Lin, Columbia University; Gene T. Hsiao, University of California, Berkeley; Harold D. Lasswell, Yale University; Shao-chuan Leng, University of Virginia; Marinus J. Meijer and Franz Michael, University of Washington. CONTEMPORARY CHINA: SUBCOMMITTEE ON RESEARCH ON CHINESE SOCIETY

George E. Taylor (chairman), Norton S. Ginsburg (secretary), Alexander Eckstein, John K. Fairbank, Walter Galenson, A. M. Halpern, John M. H. Lindbeck, G. William Skinner, C. Martin Wilbur; staff, Bryce Wood.

Morton H. Fried (chairman), John C. Pelzel, G. William Skinner, Irene B. Taeuber; staff, Bryce Wood. A seminar on research on patterns and principles of microorganizations in Chinese society, the fourth in the series sponsored by the subcommittee, was held at Cornell University, October 12-13, 1962. This seminar dealt with substantive issues, whereas the first three had been concerned with documentary sources for research on contemporary Chinese society and field research methods. The following papers were prepared for the seminar and circulated in advance: "Dialectical Differences and Social Relations: Cantonese-Hakka Interaction in the Nineteenth Century," by

A conference on research on Chinese law, the fourth in a series of small disciplinary conferences sponsored by the committee during the past two years, was held in New York on November 17-18,1962, under the chairmanship of Jerome A. Cohen, University of California School of Law, Berkeley. The purpose of the conference was to facilitate communication among members of law faculties and other scholars interested in the development of Chinese legal studies and in exploration of research aids and other mutual concerns.


Participants, in addition to members of the committee and staff, were drawn from many fields-economics, engineering, history, medicine, physics, political science, psychology, government service, and foundation administration. _ Included were Bernard Barber, Barnard .college; Richard WI H. Bolt, National Science Foundation; Bernard Brodie and Albert Wohlstetter, RAND Corporation; Harvey Brooks, W. Eric Gustafson, Sanford Lakoff, Don K. Price, and Edward M. Purcell, Harvard University; Andre Cournand, Robert K. Merton, Claire Nader, Richard E. Neustadt, Wallace S. Sayre, Warner R. Schilling, and Christopher Wright, Columbia University; A. Hunter Dupree, University of California, Berkeley; Robert G. Gilpin, Princeton University; Morton Grodzins, University of Chicago; Pendleton Herring; Richard G. Hewlett, United States Atomic Energy Commission; Thomas L. Hughes, Department of State; Robert Jastrow, National Aeronautical and Space Agency; Norman Kaplan, University of Pennsylvania; William W. Kaufmann and Carroll L. Wilson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; James E. King, Jr., Institute for Defense Analyses; Robert N. Kreidler, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; Avery Leiserson, Vanderbilt University; Thomas F. Malone, Travelers Insurance Company; Richard H. Nolte, Institute of Current World Affairs; James A. Perkins, Carnegie Corporation of New York; Carroll L. Shartle, Department of Defense; M. H. Trytten, National Academy of SciencesNational Research Council; and Alvin M. Weinberg, Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Myron Cohen, Columbia University; "Kinship and Friendship in Chinese Society," by Mr. Fried; "Class Solidarity and Class Conijict in China," by Robert M. Marsh, Cornell University; "The Dyad as a Model of Chinese Social Relations," by Mr. Pelzel; and "Religion and Village Cohesion in Nineteenth Century China," by Marjorie Topley, Hong Kong. In addition to authors of papers and members of the subcommittee and staff, the participants in the seminar were: Norma Diamond and Arthur P. Wolf, Cornell University; Maurice Freedman, London School of Economics and Political Science; Marion J. Levy, Jr., Princeton University; Ezra F. Vogel, Harvard University; Barbara E. Ward, Birkbeck College, University of London; and C. K. Yang, University of Pittsburgh. ECONOMIC GROWTH Simon Kuznets (chairman), Richard Hartshorne, Melville J. Herskovits, Bert F. Hoselitz, Wilbert E. Moore, Neil J. Smelser, Joseph J. Spengler.

British Economic Growth 1688-1959: Trends and Structure, by Phyllis Deane and W. A. Cole, has been published by the Cambridge University Press. This volume presents the major results of one of the studies initiated in foreign countries by the committee. Soviet Economic Trends, edited by Abram Bergson and Mr. Kuznets, comprising the papers of a conference on the economics of Soviet industrialization held by the committee at Princeton University on May 6-8, 1961, will be issued by the Harvard University Press early in 1963. Arrangements for publication of a volume based on the conference on the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa, which was held at Northwestern University on November 16-18, 1961, are being made. Plans have been completed by the committee for research conferences to be held next spring on demographic and economic trends in the developing countries and on the role of education in early stages of economic development; these reflect the committee's increasing preoccupation with the social concomitants of economic growth.



David B. Truman (chairman), William M. Beaney, Angus Campbell, Oliver Garceau, V. O. Key, Jr., Avery Leiserson, Edward H. Levi; staff, Bryce Wood. In order to further collaboration between legal scholars and political scientists in research on areas of mutual interest, the committee supported a conference of the Joint Committee on Political Science and Administrative Law of the American Political Science Association and the Association of American Law Schools, held at Northwestern University on October 11-13, 1962. The purpose of the conference, which was organized by Clark Byse of Harvard University and James W. Fesler of Yale University, co-chairmen of the joint committee, was to assess the state of research on the regulatory process. The topics discussed included: the regulatory process of the Civil Aeronautics Board; government contracting as government regulation; and government regulation through management of public property, with specific reference to the national forests. Relevant materials distributed in advance of the conference consisted largely of reprints of articles by participants. In addition to the co¡chairmen, these included: Carl A. Auerbach, University of Minnesota; William Baxter, Stanford University; Roger Cramton and Ferrel H. Heady, University of Michigan; Kenneth C. Davis, Edward H. Levi, and C. Herman • Pritchett, University of Chicago; Walter Gellhorn and Wil- , . Ham K. Jones, Columbia University; Nathan D. Grundstein, University of Pittsburgh; Herbert Kaufman and Charles

NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY RESEARCH William T. R. Fox (chairman), Morris Janowitz, Klaus Knorr, G. A. Lincoln, John W. Masland, Robert E. Osgood, Arthur Smithies, Robert C. Wood; staff, Bryce Wood. Associated with the committee's continuing concern with research on the roles of the military in the formulation of public policy is a newer interest in the growing participation of natural scientists in this process, notably as advisers to the President, as members of governmental commissions, and as advocates in political debates. To initiate stimulation of research on the nature of these developments, which are novel at least in scale, the committee joined the Columbia University Council for Atomic Age Studies in sponsoring a Conference on Scientists and the Making of Public Policy, held at Gould House, Dobbs Ferry, N. Y. on October 4-5, 1962. The papers prepared for the conference are expected to be published as a book in 1963.


A. Reich, Yale University; Carl McGowan, Chicago; Mark S. Massel, Brookings Institution; Arthur S. Miller, George Washington University; Nathaniel Nathanson,John Ritchie, and Victor G. Rosenblum, Northwestern University; Don K. Price, Harvard University; Emmette S. Redford, University of Texas. PRESERVATION AND USE OF ECONOMIC DATA Richard Ruggles (chairman), Stanley Lebergott, Guy H. Orcutt, Joseph A. Pechman. In order to increase the availability, for research purposes, of the large bodies of statistical data produced by government agencies, the committee is attempting to persuade several of these agencies to establish and publicize procedures for making basic information available insofar as this can be done without violating rules with respect to the disclosure of confidential matters. The committee has been consulting with the Bureau of the Census, the In-

ternal Revenue Service, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics concerning the needs of nongovernmental research workers, and hopes that the current discussions will result in precedents which will encourage wider provision of basic economic data to both academic and business users. The committee is urging the provision of data on computer tapes as well as in published form, and preferably in greater detail than at present. It believes that accessibility to computer tapes, either by purchase from the producing agencies or through use at a data center, would have significant effects on the use of empirical data by economists and by graduate students, as well as by the government itself. In order to facilitate communication between economists outside the government and the officials involved in major data collection and processing in the federal government, and to promote continued discussions with interested facilities, the committee has arranged for the services of Richard A. Miller, Assistant Professor of Economics at Wesleyan University, as part-time secretary to the committee.

PERSONNEL Charles M. Gray, Assistant Professor of History, University of Chicago, for research in England on English jurisprudence in the time of Sir Edward Coke. John F. C. Harrison, Associate Professor of History, University of Wisconsin, for research in Europe on the Owenite socialist movement, 1820-80. Richard Herr, Associate Professor of History, University of California, Berkeley, for research in Spain on the social and political effects of the sale of church lands, 1798-1808. Walter LaFeber, Assistant Professor of History, Cornell University, for research on the relations of the United States with the Soviet Union, 1933-41. Christopher Lasch, Assistant Professor of History, State University of Iowa, for research on the position of women in American society in the nineteenth century. Hen. '/ F. May, Professor of History, University of California, Berkeley, for research on the intellectual history of the United States, 1790-1830. Kurt B. Mayer, Professor of Sociology, Brown University, for research in Switzerland on the impact of postwar immigration on the demographic and social structure of that country. William J. McGill, Professor of Psychology, Columbia University, for research on stochastic latency mechanisms in behavior. Henry M. Oliver, Jr., Professor of Economics, Indiana University, for research on the political philosophy implicit in economics. Gardner Patterson, Professor of Economics, Princeton University, for research in the United States and Europe on discrimination in international trade and payments. Robert V. Pres thus, Professor of Public Administration, Cornell University, for research in England on role conceptions of British executives in government and in private corporations.



The Committee on Faculty Research Fellowships-John Useem (chairman), Lawrence E. Fouraker, John D. Lewis, Gardner Lindzey, Charles Sellers, and Fritz Stern-held the first of its two meetings scheduled for 1962-63 on December 10-11. It voted to award 25 fellowships, as follows: Herbert J. Bass, Assistant Professor of History, University of Mame, for research on the origin and development of consumer credit in the United States, 1900-35. William M. Bowsky, Associate Professor of History, University of Nebraska, for research in Italy on the commune of Siena during the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries. Stuart Bruchey, Associate Professor of History, Michigan State University, for research on the history of the FIrst Bank of the United States, 1791-1811. John Cornwall, Associate Professor of Economics, Tufts University, for research in England on the effects of demographic variables on investment and growth. Richard Drinnon, Bruern Fellow in American Studies, University of Leeds, for historical and analytical research in the United States on violence in America. Stanley M. Elkins, Associate Professor of History, Smith College, for research on the development of the political party system in nineteenth-century America. Leon D. Epstein, Professor of Political Science, University of Wisconsin, for a comparative study of political parties in Western democracies. Herman Finer, Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago, for research on the nature and validity of political knowledge. Paul W. Gates, Professor of American History, Cornell University, for research on the impact of the Civil War on American agriculture, and on the management and disposal of the public lands in California.


Charles Rosenberg, Assistant Professor of History, University of Wisconsin, for research on the origin and development of the agricultural experiment station. Paul W. Schroeder, Associate Professor of History, Con- _ cordia Senior College, for research in Vienna on Met- WI ternich's foreign policy, 1823-35. Lester G. Seligman, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Oregon, for research in Israel on interest groups in its political parties. Robert H. T. Smith, Assistant Professor of Geography, University of Wisconsin, for a geographical analsyis of functional classification of towns. Herbert A. Strauss, Assistant Professor of History, City College, New York, for research in Germany on the Jews in Prussia, 1840-70. Dale C. Thomson, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Montreal, for research on Canadian politics during the Prime Ministry of St. Laurent, 1948-57. Canute VanderMeer, Assistant Professor of Geography, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, for research on changes in the distribution of the population of the Island of Cebu, 1600-1960. J. G. Williamson, Assistant Professor of Economics, Vanderbilt University, for research on regional inequality in the United States and national economic development. David H. Willson, Professor of History, University of Minnesota, for research in Great Britain on James I and Anglo-Scottish unity.

Robert N. Rapoport, Lecturer on Social Anthropology, Harvard University, for research in England on the interplay of work and family in modem urban life. Walter Cecil Richardson, Professor of History, Louisiana State University, for research in England on the evolution of the Inns of Court. Thomas J. Scheff, Assistant Professor of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, for research in England and Italy on medical and legal decisions concerning hospitalization of the mentally ill. Hanan C. Selvin, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of California, Berkeley, for research in Europe on the interrupted development of quantitative research in sociology in the nineteenth century. William R. Taylor, Associate Professor of History, University of Wisconsin, for research on the role and status of women in eighteenth-century America: origins of the movement for women's rights in the United States. GRANTS-IN-AID The Committee on Grants-in-Aid-Paul J. Bohannan (chairman), Alfred D. Chandler, Holland Hunter, William H. Riker, Guy E. Swanson, and Gordon Wright-held the first of its two meetings scheduled for 1962-63 on December 13-14. It voted to award 19 grants-in-aid, as follows: Murray Brown, Consultant, U. S. Office of Business Economics, for completion of a study of the measurement and implications of technological change. Norman Dain, Assistant Professor of History, RutgersThe State University, Newark, for research on concepts of insanity in the United States, 1865-1945. Margaret Gay Davies, Associate Professor of History, Pomona College, for research in England on problems of estate management and income among gentry landholders in Restoration England.

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE TRAVEL GRANTS Under the program administered by the Committee on International Conference Travel Grants-Leonard Krieger (chairman), Rowland A. Egger, George Garvy, Ward H. Goodenough, Matilda W. Riley, Roger W. Russell, and Harry Venneman-8 awards have been made by its executive and staff subcommittees, to assist social scientists resident in the United States to attend the following international congresses and other meetings outside this country:

Edward P. Dozier, Professor of Anthropology and Linguistics, University of Arizona, for field research among the Rio Grande Pueblo communities of New Mexico. Amitai Etzioni, Associate Professor of Sociology, Columbia University, for completion of research on the Israeli democracy. Oscar J. Hammen, Professor of History, Montana State University, for research in Europe on the revolutionary activities and techniques of Marx and Engels in 1848-49. Joseph E. Haring, Assistant Professor of Economics, Occidental College, for empirical research on trade, growth, and international economic policy. Theodore F. Marburg, Professor of Economics, Marquette University, for research in Germany on its experience in licensing cartels under the 1957 Law against Restraints of Competition. M. R. Powicke, Associate Professor of History, University of Toronto, for research in England on war and society in fifteenth-century England. James A. Robinson, Associate Professor of Political Science, Northwestern University, for replication of a study of the communications network between Congress and the Department of State.


First International Congress of Africanists, Accra, Ghana, December 12-17, 1962 Mark Karp, Assistant Professor of Economics, Boston University Carl Rosberg, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley A. Arthur Schiller, Professor of Law, Columbia University Mediterranean Social Sciences Research Council, General Assembly, Cairo, Egypt, December 1-5, 1962 Albert J. Meyer, Associate Professor of Middle Eastern Studies, Harvard University International Economic Association Conference on Activity Analysis Applied to Economic Theory and Policy, Cambridge University, England, June 29 - July 6, 1963 Robert Dorfman, Professor of Economics, Harvard University International Economic History Association, Executive. Committee, planning session, Italy, February, 1963 ,. Frederic C. Lane, Professor of History, Johns Hopkins University



Conference on Science in the Advancement of New States, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovoth, Israel, August 1963

International Congress on Genetics, The Hague, September 2-10,1963 Gerald E. McClearn, Assistant Professor of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley Conference on Comprehensive Planning of Agriculture in Developing Countries to be held by the International

Sidney Hoos, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Economics, and Business Administration, University of California, Berkeley

PUBLICATIONS Matrilineal Kinship, edited by David M. Schneider and Kathleen Gough. Product of the Interuniversity Summer Research Seminar on Kinship Research, 1954. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1961. 781 pages. $11.75.


Labor Commitment and Social Change in Developing Areas, edited by Wilbert E. Moore and Arnold S. Feldman. Sponsored by the Committee on Economic Growth. December 1960. 393 pages. $3.75.

Natural Resources and Economic Growth, edited by Joseph J. Spengler. Papers presented at a conference at Ann Arbor, Michigan, April 7-9, 1960, jointly sponsored by Resources for the Future, Inc. and the Committee on Economic Growth. Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future, Inc., 1961. 316 pages. $3.50.

Theoretical Studies in Social Organization of the Prison, Pamphlet 15, by Richard A. Cloward, Donald R. Cressey, George H. Grosser, Richard McCleery, Lloyd E. Ohlin, and Gresham M. Sykes and Sheldon L. Messinger. Papers prepared by members of a Conference Group on Correctional Organization, sponsored by the Council in 1956-57. March 1960. 152 pages. $1.50.

Organizing for Defense, by Paul Y. Hammond. Based in part on work at the Interuniversity Summer Research Seminar on National Security Policy, 1958. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1961. 414 pages. $7.95.

The publications of the Council are distributed from its office, 230 Park Avenue, New York 17, N. Y.

Perspectives in American Indian Culture Change, edited by Edward H. Spicer. Product of the Interuniversity Summer Research Seminar on Differential Culture Change, 1956. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1961. 559 pages. $10.00.


Generalization in the Writing of History, edited by Louis Gottschalk. Report of the former Committee on Historical Analysis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, January 1963. c. 300 pages. $5.00.

Projective Techniques and Cross-Cultural Research, by Gardner Lindzey. Initiated under the auspices of the former Committee on Social Behavior. New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts, 1961. 348 pages. $6.00.

British Economic Growth 1688-1959: Trends and Stmcture, by Phyllis Deane and W. A. Cole. University of Cambridge Department of Applied Economics Monographs, No.8. Sponsored by the Committee on Economic Growth. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, November 1962. 364 pages. $11.50.

Quantification: A History of the Meaning of Measurement in the Natural and Social Sciences, edited by Harry Woolf. Product of the Conference on the History of Quantification in the Sciences, November 20-21, 1959, sponsored by the former Joint Committee on the History of Science. Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill Company, 1961. 224 pages. $6.50. The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity: Economic and Social Factors. A Conference of the UniversitiesNational Bureau Committee for Economic Research and the Committee on Economic Growth. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1962. 644 pages. $12.50.

Abstract of British Historical Statistics, by B. R. Mitchell with the collaboration of Phyllis Deane. Sponsored by the Committee on Economic Growth. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, December 1962. 527 pages. $10.00. Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1957. Prepared by the Bureau of the Census, with the assistance of the former Advisory Committee on Historical Statistics. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, August 1960. 2nd printing, February 1962. 800 pages. $6.00.

Thought in the Young Child: Report of a Conference on Intellective Development, with Particular Attention to the Work of Jean Piaget, edited by William Kessen and Clementina Kuhlman. Monographs of the Society for Research in Child Development, Vol. 27, No.2 (Serial No. 83), 1962. Lafayette, Indiana: Child Development Publications. 176 pages. $3.50.

Capital Formation in Japan, 1868-1940, by Henry Rosovsky. Aided by the Committee on Economic Growth. New York: Free Press of Glencoe, 1961. 371 pages. $7.50.


Types of Formalization in Small-Group Resem"ch, by Joseph Berger, Bernard P. Cohen, J. Laurie Snell, and Morris Zelditch, Jr. Aided by the Committee on Mathematics in Social Science Research. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1962. 170 pages. $4.50.

Changes in the Location of Manufacturing in the United States Since 1929, by Victor R. Fuchs. Sponsored by the Committee on Analysis of Economic Census Data. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1962. 587 pages. $10.00.


SUMMER RESEARCH TRAINING INSTITUTES TO BE SPONSORED BY COUNCIL COMMITTEES IN 1963 mental philosophy of measurement in the Campellian sense. _ The general point of view is treated in an unpublished manuscript by John W. Tukey, "Data Analysis and Behavioral Science," copies of which will be available at the institute. Applicants must indicate their formal training in mathematics and statistics as well as their informal experience with statistical methods in their research. A minimum of one year's study of statistics and successful completion of two semesters of college mathematics including the calculus will be required. Enrollment will be limited to 12 participants.

APPLICATIONS for admission to three six-week summer institutes for postdoctoral social scientists and advanced graduate students, to be held as indicated below, will be accepted through February 15, 1963. The participants will devote their full time to the work of the institutes during the six-week period, and will receive stipends from the Council to meet in part the cost of attendance, unless their expenses will be defrayed by other sources. No tuition fee will be charged. Descriptive circulars and application forms will be furnished on request addressed to the Social Science Research Council Fellowships and Grants, 230 Park Avenue, New York 17, N. Y.

SIMULATION OF COGNITIVE PROCESSES Place: RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California Dates: June 17 - July 26, 1963 Technical Director: Bert F. Green, Jr., Carnegie Institute of Technology Administrative Director: Paul Armer, RAND Corporation The institute, sponsored by the Committee on Simulation of Cognitive Processes, is intended primarily for postdoctoral social scientists who are affiliated with university departments or engaged in full-time research, but exceptionally well-qualified candidates for the doctorate will also be considered for admission. Knowledge of computer programming is not required, but some familiarity with the use of AI computers is expected. The institute will cover recent de- WI velopments in constructing computer programs that serve as models of complex human processes, such as problem solving, concept formation, rote memory, decision making, and verbal communication. Intensive instruction at the institute will consist of four overlapping phases: (I) training in the use of Information Processing Language V, in which most computer simulation programs of psychological interest have been written (the IBM 7090 computer and associated facilities at RAND ;will be used); (2) detailed presentation and study of several simulation programs; (3) general coverage of the techniques, literature, and problems of computer simulation and artificial intelligence; (4) supervision of original research projects formulated and programmed by the participants. Attendance will be limited to 25 persons.

MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF SOCIAL STRUCTURE Place: University of Wisconsin Dates: July 8-August 17,1963 Director: James M. Beshers, Purdue University This institute, sponsored by the Committee on Mathematics in Social Science Research, will deal with the mathematical analysis of social structure, including its ecological, demographic, and sociometric aspects, and such topics as social mobility, marriage rules, and complex organizations. Participants will present problems arising in their own research, for general discussion and assistance. University of Wisconsin faculty specialists in these areas will be available for consultation and collaboration. Applicants must indicate their formal training in mathematics and statistics. Enrollment will be limited to 12 participants. MEASUREMENT AND DATA ANALYSIS Place: Stanford University Dates: June 24 - August 2, 1963 Director: Lincoln E. Moses, Stanford University This institute, sponsored by the Committee on Mathematics in Social Science Research, will consider applications of new developments in statistical analysis to research in the behavioral and social sciences and will emphasize the interrelationships between those new developments and a funda-









Incorporated in the State of Illinois, December 27, 1924, for the purpose of advancing research in the social sciences Directors,










Officers and Staff:



Vice路 President; ELBRIDGE SmLEY, Executive Associate; Staff Associates; CATHERINE V. RONNAN, Financial Secretary





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