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Risk Sentiment Gains on Lack of Negative Headlines; SNB Rumored to Enact Currency Peg to Euro
We are seeing an improved risk sentiment creep back into the market and evidence of this can be seen in the moves in the Swiss Franc to start the week. The CHF is broadly lower against the majors and this is being influenced further by weekend rumors that the Swiss National Bank is prepared to enact a temporary peg to the Euro. Apparently, no news is good news as markets are responding favorably to the fact that we are not seeing any negative headlines of major significance. There is not much macro data scheduled for today so we expect volatility to slow, which should be moderately positive for equity markets. In Japan, GDP data came in negative but still much better than market expectations. The report released overnight showed that economic activity declines by -1.3 percent for the second quarter (consensus estimates called for a drop of -2.5 percent), which is a steady improvement from the -3.6 percent decline that was seen in the first quarter. Longer term, markets are expecting this number to continue to stabilize after the country continues its post-earthquake rebuilding efforts, with an unchanged GDP figure seen by the end of this year. Macro data today will come in the form of US housing data (the NAHB index), which is expected to rise to 15 in July from 13 previously with the Future Sales Index showing a major improvement to 22 (from 15 previously), which would follow a similar trend seen in the Present Sales Index. We will also see the U.S. TIC data and the Empire Manufacturing report, which will give some of the first regional manufacturing reports released this month. UK stock markets are expected to open higher, with FTSE 100 futures is currently 28 points in the green. There is no major economic data to guide regional sentiment, so volatility is likely to remain muted. Earnings data will be released from Orogen Gold, Mitie Group and OPG Power Company. An article in the Sunday Times said that HSBC Holdings is planning to sell Cambridge Water for ÂŁ100.0 million. The FTSE continues to trade near recent highs and as long as risk sentiment remains healthy, prices are likely to extend higher.
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Published on Aug 14, 2011
We are seeing an improved risk sentiment creep back into the market and evidence of this can be seen in the moves in the Swiss Franc to star...