market overview
Ups and downs
Riding the 2017 housing market roller coaster BY J I M Z A N G
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017 was a real year of ups and downs for the local housing industry, according to the latest Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) statistics, with numbers varying significantly from market to market and from quarter to quarter. In Red Deer, for example, back in Q3, total housing starts were trailing 2016 numbers by 128 starts (41 per cent). By the end of this year, things had picked up to the point where the final difference has shrunk to just 44 starts, or 12 per cent. It remains to be seen if that positive momentum carries over into Q1 of 2018, but the general consensus is yes, probably, though maybe not quite as pronounced. Just down the road in Red Deer County, the numbers are crystal clear — starts were up for the final quarter and for the year, by about 36 per cent. Meanwhile, something strange seems to be going on out in Lacombe, where, up to the end of Q3, new home starts were outpacing last year by more than 40 per cent (62-44). Then things just seemed to stop, with just five total housing starts — of any type — in the entire fourth quarter of 2017. Compare that to the 82 total starts in Q4 of last year and 2017 falls a full 59 homes (47 per cent) short of the mark. Suffice it to say folks are hoping for a better start to 2018 than how they left off last year. In the surrounding area of Lacombe County, starts tracked just about dead even between 2016 and 2017 throughout the year, with 2017 pulling ahead ever so slightly — although not statistically significantly. Sylvan Lake is where the economic slowdown hit the hardest, no surprise as the more expensive properties always seem to slow down first in tough conditions. Sylvan lagged behind 2016 numbers pretty much all year long in 2017, finishing the year off a full 59 starts (38 per cent) short of the mark. And it wasn’t just a couple of multi-family projects skewing the results — starts were down across every single housing category. Best bet is that Sylvan will also be the slowest market to recover. Meanwhile, out in Olds, things are looking pretty good. Housing starts were up in Q3, they’re up again for Q4, and they’re up nearly double (82 per cent) year-to-year thanks mainly to the 22 multi-family units that came onboard in Q3. So, all that being said, what does 2018 hold in store for the Central Alberta housing market? Well, it depends quite a bit on what city or town you’re looking at and, of course, what happens in the local economy. Does the price of oil increase substantially? Does the provincial NDP government win another term? Does Trump dissolve the NAFTA agreement? Only time will tell.
RED DEER Dec. 2017 Dec. 2016 YTD 2017 YTD 2016 Single-family 21 26 203 163 Semi-detached 12 4 38 22 Row 0 0 16 36 Apartment 0 0 74 154 Total 33 30 331 375
LACOMBE Q4 2017 Q4 2016 YTD 2017 YTD 2016 Single-family 0 18 26 40 Semi-detached 0 8 6 10 Row 5 8 35 12 Apartment 0 48 0 64 Total 5 82 67 126
LACOMBE COUNT Y Q4 2017 Q4 2016 YTD 2017 YTD 2016 Single-family 16 13 55 47 Semi-detached 0 0 0 0 Row 0 0 0 0 Apartment 0 0 0 0 Total 16 13 55 47
RED DEER COUNT Y Q4 2017 Q4 2016 YTD 2017 YTD 2016 Single-family 22 19 79 61 Semi-detached 0 0 0 0 Row 4 0 4 0 Apartment 0 0 0 0 Total 26 19 83 61
SYLVAN LAKE Q4 2017 Q4 2016 YTD 2017 YTD 2016 Single-family 12 22 55 73 Semi-detached 0 0 14 22 Row 4 0 25 54 Apartment 0 0 0 4 Total 16 22 94 153
OLDS Q4 2017 Q4 2016 YTD 2017 YTD 2016 Single-family 5 5 16 13 Semi-detached 4 2 6 10 Multi-family 0 0 22 0 Total 9 7 44 23
S P R I N G 2 018
CENTR AL
A L B ER TA H O M E S & L I FE S T Y L E S
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