Petri Hakkarainen: The Energiewende - The Story So Far

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Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies IASS in Potsdam The German Energiew ende – The Story So Far

Dr. Petri Hakkarainen Senior Fellow IASS Potsdam

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


What? – A Definition of the Energiewende

Much more than just a nuclear phase-out  A complete transformation of the energy system of a highly industrialized country Not just an exit from something, also an entry into something new  An energy system based on renewables and energy efficiency – replacing nuclear and fossil fuels All three corners of the energy triangle need to be taken into account  Security of supply, competitiveness, sustainability Common denominators with European energy policy?  2020 targets for CO2 emissions, renewables and efficiency  Roadmap 2050 and the “no-regret options” energy efficiency, renewables, grid development

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


The German Electricity Mix in 2012

Nuclear 16,1 % Renewables 22,1 %

Others 4,2 % Lignite 25,7 %

Oil 1,5 %

Natural gas 11,3 %

Source: AG Energiebilanzen Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Hard coal 19,1 % Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


The German Electricity Mix in 2050

Fossil fuels combined 20 %

Renewables 80 %

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


The German Energy Mix in 2012

Renewables 11,6 % Others 1,4 % Nuclear 8,0 %

Oil 33,1 %

Lignite 12,1 %

Hard coal 12,2 %

Natural gas 21,6 %

Source: AG Energiebilanzen Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


The German Energy Mix in 2050

Fossil fuels combined 40 %

Renewables 60 %

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


When? – A Time Frame for the Energiewende

Commitment to a project spanning decades  The Energiewende started well before 2011 and will continue at least until the 2050s Long history of the nuclear phase-out  Strong anti-nuclear movement from the 1970s  Red-Green consensus with the industry in 2000  U-turns of the current government 2010/2011  Now the divisive nuclear issue is finally settled Support schemes for renewable energy sources  First feed-in tariff in 1991  Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) in 2000 Long term vs. short term in the future

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


Why? – Goals and Motives of the Energiewende

In     

plain numbers, the main targets are clearly set Nuclear phase-out: completed by 2022 Share of renewables in electricity consumption: 80 % by 2050 Share of renewables in total energy consumption: 60 % by 2050 Reduction of electricity consumption: 25 % by 2050 (compared to 2008) CO2 emissions reduction: 80-95 % by 2050 (compared to 1990)

However, difficult to define one or two overarching drivers  Nuclear exit and climate protection?  Increasing share of renewables?  Energy independence?  Industry policy?  Jobs and growth?  Decentralized energy generation?  All of the above? Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


Where? – A Geography of the Energiewende

Spatial changes within Germany  Locations of new and old supply  Increasingly decentralized generation Germany’s location at the heart of Europe  Central role in grid expansion  Loop flows and the neighbouring countries Germany in the world  Potential global impact of the example set  Decoupling emissions from growth  An energy system that can be “globalized”

Source: Bundesnetzagentur Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


How? – Solutions for the Energiewende

Wind and solar as the basis of the future energy system  Problems resulting from intermittency: “overcapacity” required  Grid extension and smart grids vs. storage technologies  Flexibility and demand-side management Energy-only market vs. a new market design  Current electricity market suits neither renewable nor conventional sources  Role of capacity markets and strategic reserves Need for more systemic thinking  Focus has been predominantly on electricity supply – what about demand, heat and transport?  How to take the necessary steps now, but make sure that the system remains open to adjustments in the future?

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


At What Cost? – A Price Tag for the Energiewende The EEG as the victim of its own success  Long-term cumulative effects of fixed 20-year tariffs  Decreasing rates outweighed by increasing volumes and the PV boom  Paradoxical effect on the market: wholesale price down, surcharge up  A reform of the EEG urgently needed Overall costs  The “Altmaier trillion” probably exaggerated  But the price tag for the next decades will be in the hundreds of billions  Justice and equity: who pays, who is exempted, what is affordable? Costs or investments?  Not just subsidies that are burned away  An investment in future infrastructure and immediate electricity generation  Learning curves vs. the cheapest technology today  The alternative is not free either Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


Who? – Governance and Actors of the Energiewende

How many Energiewendes are there?  Federal level and the Länder – plans not always compatible  How deep does decentralization go?  Municipalities, private individuals, energy cooperatives and “prosumers” Is it possible to manage an energy transition?  Can there be a central master plan?  Would an energy ministry solve the governance problem? “Gemeinschaftswerk”  The Ethics Commission in 2011: the energy transition will only succeed through a collective effort spanning all levels of politics, business and society  Could there be a European Gemeinschaftswerk ?

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


Conclusion – The Future Made in Germany?

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


Thank you for your attention! Dr. Petri Hakkarainen Senior Fellow petri.hakkarainen@iass-potsdam.de

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Berliner StraĂ&#x;e 130 D – 14467 Potsdam Web: www.iass-potsdam.de Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


Predominance of Wind and Solar in Future Scenarios

Source: BMU-DLR-IWES-IfnE (2012) Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


Average Electricity Costs for Private Consumers

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies  Inspired by the 2007 Nobel Laureate Symposium “Global Sustainability – A Nobel Cause” held in Potsdam  Founded in 2009, funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research and by the State of Brandenburg  Rapid growth: now an international staff of over a hundred people working with a holistic and transdisciplinary approach to sustainability issues  Three main research areas and clusters:  GCS: Global Contract for Sustainability (Prof. Dr. Klaus Töpfer)  E3: Earth, Energy and the Environment (Prof. Dr. Carlo Rubbia)  SIWA: Sustainable Interactions with the Atmosphere (Dr. Mark Lawrence)

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


Transdisciplinary Panel on Energy Change (TPEC)  Part of the GCS Cluster, “Plattform Energiewende” (TPEC) was launched in March 2012  TPEC’s mission is to help the Energiewende succeed by  providing independent scientific guidance  enabling a knowledge transfer between science, politics, civil society and industry  Priority areas in the first year: 1) future of the renewables legislation, 2) CO2 emissions and the conventional power plants, 3) social balancing of the Energiewende, 4) demand-side management, 5) Europe  An interdisciplinary team with a diverse set of methods:  Own research  Thematic working groups and workshops  “TPEC Bilaterals” series  Public hearings  IASS cooperation with acatech and MPG in the new “Research Forum Energiewende” Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kalevi Sorsa Foundation, Helsinki, 29 May 2013


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