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Prof. Emeritus LEONOR MAGTOLIS BRIONES Former National Treasurer Lead Convenor, Social Watch Philippines


The 2015 Budget    

The following update is based on available issuances and official information Total picture of the budget is not available Budget call and memoranda only cover the allocation for operating agencies Only 47% (agency budget ceilings of P1.231 trillion) of the total obligation budget of P2.606 trillion is initially disclosed (NBM No. 119); does not include special purpose funds and debt servicing


Macroeconomic Assumptions PARAMETER

2013 Actual

Real GNI Growth % 6.5-7.0 Real GDP Growth % 6.5-7.0 Inflation % 2.9 364-Day T-bill Rate % 0.7-1.0 FOREX (P/US $) 42-43

2014 Adjusted

2015 Projected

2016 Projected

6.2-7.2 6.5-7.5 3.0-5.0 1.0-4.0 41-44

6.6-7.5 7.0-8.0 2.0-4.0 1.0-4.0 41-44

7.0-8.0 7.5-8.5 2.0-4.0 1.0-4.0 41-44

Source: DBM NBM 119 based on BSP, NEDA, NSCB data

Are the projected GDP and GNI growth rates attainable?


Fiscal Targets PARTICULARS Levels in Billion Pesos Revenues Disbursements Surplus/(Deficit) Obligation Budget

2013 Adjusted Program

2014 Program

2015 Proposed

2016 Proposed

1,745.9 1,983.9 (238.0) 2,005.9

2,018.1 2.284.3 (266.2) 2,264.6

2,337.3 2,622.6 (285.3) 2,605.9

2,760.8 3,082.8 (322.0) 3,077.9

Per cent of GDP Revenues Disbursements Surplus/(Deficit) Obligation Budget

14.7 16.7 (2.0) 16.8

15.5 17.5 (2.0) 17.4

16.2 18.2 (2.0) 18.0

17.1 19.1 (2.0) 19.0

Growth Rate Revenues Disbursements Surplus/(Deficit)* Obligation Budget

13.7 11.6 2.0 9.7

15.6 15.1 (11.9) 12.9

15.8 14.8 (7.1) 15.1

18.1 17.5 (12.9) 18.1

11,914.5

12,990.3

14,463.5

16,179.0

8.0 92.0

15.0 85.0

11.0 89.0

9.0 91.0

GDP Gross Financing Mix (%) Foreign Domestic

Notes: *A positive growth rate indicates an improvement in the fiscal balance Source: DBM NBM 119 based on DBM, DOF, and NEDA data


2015 Agency Budget Ceilings Personal Services

MOOE, CO & Total FinEx 488,140,395,000 742,918,323,000 1,231,058,718,000

Source: DBM National Budget Memorandum No. 119 Annex A

vs. Total Obligation Budget for 2014:

PhP 2,605,900,000,000 Where is the remaining amount of PhP 1,374,841,282,000 going to?


Top agencies to get bigger slice of the P1.231T pie Agency 1. DEPED 2. DPWH 3. DILG 4. DSWD 5. DND 6. DOH 7. DOTC 8. DA 9. SUCs 10. DENR 11. ARMM 12. JUDICIARY OTHERS

Budget Ceiling (in PhP) 297,418,283,000 255,436,881,000 95,278,522,000 85,904,210,000 84,184,487,000 83,129,088,000 52,059,954,000 50,945,003,000 31,770,640,000 21,637,070,000 20,454,793,000 18,845,712,000 133,548,360,000

Total Budget Ceiling for Agency Operations 1,231,058,718,000 Source: DBM National Budget Memorandum No. 119 Annex A


The 10.9% of the P1.231T pie Rank 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

Agency Department of Agrarian Reform Other Executive Offices Department of Finance Department of Foreign Affairs Department of Justice Department of Science and Technology Congress of the Philippines Commission on Audit Department of Labor and Employment Department of Energy Department of Trade and Industry Commission on Elections National Economic and Development Authority Office of the President Allocations to Local Government Units (MMDA) Department of Tourism Office of the Ombudsman Department of Budget and Management Presidential Communications Operations Office Civil Service Commission Commission on Human Rights Office of the Vice President Joint Legislative-Executive Councils

Source: DBM National Budget Memorandum No. 119 Annex A

Budget Ceiling (in PhP) 18,845,712,000 15,375,128,000 12,688,794,000 11,493,541,000 11,431,409,000 11,365,954,000 10,365,526,000 8,163,021,000 7,960,793,000 4,057,567,000 3,888,428,000 2,685,830,000 3,260,469,000 2,582,457,000 1,933,175,000 1,866,437,000 1,731,261,000 1,126,491,000 1,107,450,000 1,071,722,000 319,743,000 224,582,000 2,870,000


SPECIAL PURPOSE FUNDS 2014 Gen. Appropriations Act

Where goes the more than half of the 2015 Budget? Special Purpose Funds? How much is it in 2015? How much is debt How much is servicing?

it for 2013?

Source: 2014 GAA (RA 10633) 1Under

Amount

Budgetary Support to Government Corporations

46,255,210,000

Allocation to Local Government Units

19,588,843,000

National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Fund (formerly Calamity Fund)

13,000,000,000

Contingent Fund

1,000,000,000

DepEd School Building Program

1,000,000,000

E-Government Fund

2,478,900,000

International Commitments Fund

4,815,644,000

Miscellaneous Personnel Benefits Fund

53,535,086,000

Pension and Gratuity Fund (formerly Retirement Benefits Fund) Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Program

120,495,952,000

20,000,000,000

Priority Development Assistance Fund1 Feasibility Studies Fund TOTAL

0 400,000,000 282,569,635,000

the FY 2014 General Appropriations Act, the P25.24 Billion PDAF is realigned to the following: CHED, DOH, DSWD, DOLE-TESDA, DPWH, UP System, PNP, AFP, and NDRRM Fund


Assessment of the Budget Ceilings for Agency Operations Top 5 recipient agencies, FY 2015 (Budget Call) and FY 2014 (GAA) DEPARTMENT (in PhP)

GAA 2014

Variance

% change

297,418,283,000 281,774,247,000 15,644,036,000

1 Education 2 Public Works and Highways 3 Interior and Local Government 4 Social Welfare and Development 5 National Defense

2015 Budget Ceiling

5.55

255,436,881,000 206,634,047,000 48,802,834,000 23.62 95,278,522,000 100,295,430,000 (5,016,908,000)

-5.0

85,904,210,000 83,304,463,000 2,599,747,000

3.12

84,184,487,000 82,265,071,000 1,919,416,000

2.33

Source: GAA 2014 and NBM 119 Annex A

Note: Ranking 6th is DOH with budget ceiling amounting to PhP 83.129 B, slightly lower than its 2014 appropriation of PhP 84.356 B of which the department ranked 4th among top recipient agencies


Assessment of the Budget Ceilings for Agency Operations Top 5 recipient agencies, FY 2015 (Budget Call) and FY 2014 (GAA) DEPARTMENT

Presidential Communications 31 Operations Office 32 Civil Service Commission 33 Commission on Human Rights 34 Office of the Vice President 35 Joint Legislative-Executive Councils

2015 Budget Ceiling

GAA 2014

Variance

(20,909,000)

% change

1,107,450,000

1,128,359,000

-1.85

1,071,722,000

1,213,353,000

319,743,000

326,923,000

(7,180,000)

-2.2

224,582,000

217,296,000

7,286,000

-3.35

2,870,000

4,167,000

(141,631,000) -11.67

(1,297,000) -31.13

Source: GAA 2014 and NBM 119 Annex A

Note: Previously ranked 32nd in the 2014 GAA with appropriation of P997.494 M, Department of Budget and Management moved out from the lowest 5 recipient agencies with P1.127 B budget ceiling for FY 2015.


Remarks on 2015 Macro 26 Fiscal Targets