Analysing the ascot Quaddie with thethoroughbred.com.au
Ascot Perth, November 29, 2008 First Leg 3.35 (5.35 EST)
Second Leg 4.15 (6.15 EST)
Third Leg 4.55 (6.55 EST)
Fourth Leg 5.35 (7.35 EST)
Aquanita Stakes (L) 1800m 3YO
Winterbottom Stks (G2) 1200m WFA
Jungle Dawn Classic (L) 1400m F&M
Festival Of Perth Hcp (1MWLY) 1200m
There are four who look likely to win and two who could rise to the occasion: those who would not surprise are (1) Locus Standi, (2) Apache Mak, (6) Exquisite Timing and (3) Saxon Palace, but we’re loath to leave out the second starter (13) Lovre, a Galileo colt who finished with a rush when second to Fun Spice in a strong 1500m. event on Nov 8. (9) Almohad, well supported when third to Exquisite Timing and Apache Mak last week, has a rough hope. Locus Standi was outstanding in the Burgess Queen (Nov 8), and was held up at a vital stage when second to Moccasin Bend in the WA Guineas (1600m, Nov.15). The 58kg is a worry, but the trip is not. Exquisite Timing was strong on the line after a cushy run beating the strong leader Apache Mak over 1500m last week. Apache Mak meets ET on 2kg better terms, but may not be able to lead from the gate. Saxon Palace was wide, strong and just kept out Grand Nirvana for third in the WA Guineas. He should get a great run from gate 2.
This is a race in three sections. The starting point is to eliminate outright those that can’t win; then those who may win, but there are issues; and finally those who can certainly win. We include (4) Royal Lott, (6) Innovation, (7) Surprise Impact and (9) Hips Don’t Lie as those that can’t win – for reasons of form or class, or lack of capacity at weight for age. Those who may win, but have issues are headlined by (2) Apache Cat. We didn’t like his first-up run at Flemington (easing from $1.70 to a best of $2.15, with a general SP of $2), and we didn’t like his gallop behind (1) Takeover Target a fortnight back over this trip. We love Takeover Target’s overall record, and we’re not concerned about his age (9), but we note that although his first-up record of 4 wins from 8 looks strong, his recent record is nothing like that. So, those who can win are the local stars, (3) Marasco (5/6 over the trip at Ascot), and (5) Danny Beau (3/3 at Ascot, and the track record holder.
This is a split between the class runners –(1) Black In Time and (2) Spirited One – and a vast array of possibles: (3) Aplomb, (4) Egatrice, (8) Magical Belle, (11) Rock My Pago, (13) Star Of Danetime, (15) Urlay Nook and (16) Yellow Moon. Spirited One was outstanding first up, coming from last for what was eventually a soft win in the Jungle Mist (1200m, Nov, 15). She looked in tremendous form, and but for the shocking draw (16) we’d be inclined to label her one out. She has been great fresh (3 wins from 4 first up, 0/3 second up). She can win from the back, but it’s tough. Black In Time was beaten a length and a quarter in track record time over 1200m. last time but also has a poor draw and a big weight, although this is easier. The brave will go for the top two, and to hell with the rest, but the sensible inclination, if the bank is strong, is to go wide, as wide as possible.
We’d love to be alive and wide at the last. This is a race of former quality gallopers out of form – (2) Far Horizons and (3) Electric General – one Geraldton champ resuming in (6) Our Katarina (first up 2 for 1; trialled recently), the pacy (1) Naval Seal, who looked finished in metro company before a tough win over the perennial placegetter Legend Express here two starts back, and a bunch of moderates. Perhaps it’s best to eliminate, and we’re happy to do that with Stratazoa, Cash Carter, Elantone Park, Homme, Last Frontier, Impressing Matters and Wingate Street. That leaves us with six: Naval Seal, Far Horizons, Electric General, Our Katarina, (7) Dance Across, (8) Dee Picked and (10) Game Park. Go as wide as you can; we’d hate to be live after three legs, and relying on any of the above. Sensible allocation of funds will leave the maximum numbers of runners in the last, refined to any of Our Katarina, Naval Seal, Far Horizons and Electric General. Pull the order out of a hat.
3/1 – 6/2 – 13/9
3/5 – 1/2 – 4/9
1/2 – 15/3/4/8/11 – 13/16
6/1/3/2 – 7/8
The plays $50
$100 3,1,6,2/3,5,1,2/1,2,15,3/6,1,3,2 39%
$200 3,1/3,5/1,2,15,3,4,8,11,13,16/FIELD 39.68%
$300 3,1/3,5/FIELD/FIELD 33.48%
$500 3,1,6,2/3,5,1,2/1,2,15,3,4,8,11,13,16/6,1,3,2,7,8 57.87% Our favoured bet