FOCUS ON THE THIRD LEG This leg is certainly the trickiest of the six legs of the two-state BIG6. There are two distinct divisions – the established Stakes-quality performers and a group of promising fillies that are on the improve. If you can afford to take them all, do so; otherwise, you might have to take the risk on Weekend Hussler or Samantha Miss as bankers when it could be prudent to go wider in those legs for a big result, and follow our lead and make (1 ) H ot Dani sh the pea in the fourth leg.
OUR FAVOURED BET
Moonee Valley & Randwick, February 14, 2009 FIRST LEG 2.50pm
1,3,5,6,9/ 2,3,4/ 1,2,3,6,7,8,9/ 1/ 1,2,7/ 1,2,3,6,7,8
ANALYSING THE BIG6 WITH thethoroughbred.com.au
SECOND LEG 3.10 pm
THIRD LEG 3.30pm
FOURTH LEG 3.50 pm
FIFTH LEG 4.10 pm
SIXTH LEG 4.30 pm
Alister Clark Stakes (1600m) R5 M.Valley
Southern Cross Stakes (1200m) R5 Randwick
MV Fillies Classic (1500m) R6 M.Valley
Breeders Classic (1200m) R6 Randwick
Australia Stakes (1200m) R7 M.Valley
Light Fingers Stakes (1200m) R7 Randwick
This is not a strong edition of the Group 2 Alister Clarke Stakes (1600m), a race that has been won by such luminaries as Pins, Dignity Dancer, Blevic, Zabeel, Naturalism and Vo Rogue. All being equal, on raw talent, we could narrow this leg down to two main chances, (6) Keano and (9) Eagle Falls, both very promising gallopers. However, Keano seems one of those horses who finds trouble and he has drawn awkwardly in barrier 10, whereas Eagle Falls is a gelding who is making quick progress, but he steps out of winning a 1200m restricted race at MV to Group 2, and 1600m, in the space of a week. To play safe, the proven spring form of (1) Pre Emine nce (3rd in the Victoria Derby) and ( 3) Ex cell tastic (3rd in the Champion Stakes) reads well for this. (5) Cavalaire Bay is drawn to get a cosy run, and he likes Moonee Valley and he’s fit.
It wasn’t that long ago that both Qld trainer Barry Baldwin and jockey Shane Scriven rated (4 ) S imp lest a better horse than Burdekin Blues, last week’s winner of the Group 2 Expressway Stakes at Rosehill. Simplest may now be playing second base behind his stablemate, but he looks ideally placed in this Group 3 sprint, which is hardly a tough affair. Simplest has won eight of his 21 starts, mostly in Qld after moving from Victoria. He lumped 57kg for second at Doomben (1010m) on January 31 when trapped wide all the way. In his last visit to Randwick, he finished 4th behind Fritz’s Princess and Hot Danish in the G2 The Shorts over 1100m last Oct. (3) Hairy won the Listed Carrington Stakes (1100m) here on Jan 1, then had no luck in the Listed Canterbury Classic (1100m). This suits. (2) Wa ste d Emo tion s is unbeaten at 1200m.
There are two form lines to follow here – the established Stakes-quality horses who ran in the G3 The Vanity (1400m) at Flemington on Jan. 31; and a few promising fillies who are unproven at Stakes level, but look to be serious chances in a race that lacks a star contender anywhere near the quality of some of the winners of this G2 race – Sunline, Anamato, Champagne, Special Harmony and Kensington Palace. Out of The Vanity comes the winner (1) Romneya, runnerup ( 3) Rap id Sen sat ion and the unlucky (2) Gol d Wa ter from Sydney. All top hopes. Look for bold showings from (6) Manila Jewel, (7) Lamarr, (8 ) B ub ble Be low and (9) Sp irit Of Kin tyre. All were very impressive at latest starts in weaker grade. The choice is to bank on the proven form, or go wide. We are going wide because we believe this race is tricky.
Good quality mares’ race run under set weight and penalties conditions, which should favour the outstanding (1 ) Ho t Danish, the only genuine Group 1 mare in the race – she who would be lumping above 60kg (she will carry 56.5kg) if this were a handicap. Hot Danish hasn’t raced since winning the Group 2 Salinger Stakes (1200m) down the straight on Derby Day at Flemington. She is 3 from 4 first-up, 4 from 5 over 1200m and 7 from 8 on good/dead ground. Hot Danish was impressive in a recent trial. She’s ready for this. For those going wider, then (2) Ch in chilla Ro se, under the care of new trainer Chris Waller, has trialled impressively and she’s good fresh. Kris Lees’s ( 5) Abso lutelyfa bulou s is very genuine and well drawn, while (7) Jewel led Gate is a Stakes winner over this course. ( 3) Belon g To Many is next best.
There look to be only three genuine chances here leg; and, for those who think (2) Weekend Hu ssler is unbeatable, make this the banker leg and go wide in leg four. While we can understand that many punters will treat Weekend Hussler as the banker, we prefer to think outside the square because of the fact there are other options for a banker, and we are looking for value. Both (7) T ime Th ief and (1) A pache Cat can win. Time Thief is a raw talent who has a second behind Whobegotyou in the G1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) in the spring. He had a soft firstup win in the Listed Zeditave Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield. He has won here, and he will be ridden aggressively. Apache Cat’s star is dimming after a few lacklustre performances, but he won this last year, and deserves one more chance.
Trainer Kris Lees is warning punters to be wary of banking on (1) Samantha M iss in her autumn resumption. Lees claims that his champion filly is a long way short of peak fitness, and he remembers her first-up win in the spring in the G3 Silver Slipper (1200m) at Warwick Farm, when he said the filly was “lucky” to beat (9) Glowlamp . He claims Samantha Miss is not as forward this time. We plan to follow Lees’s warning and load this leg for an upset. Certainly (2) Por tillo, a third placegetter in the 2008 Golden Slipper, and second to Samantha Miss in the G1 Flight Stakes (1600m) at Randwick, is a serious chance. (3 ) Anatomica is in great form and has a fitness edge. (7) Montana Flyer beat the colts in the G2 Roman Consul over this course in the spring, and (6) Cour t and (8) Zarock are fillies on the up. Happy to risk Glowlamp from barrier 15.
6, 9 – 1, 3, 5
4 – 3, 2
1 – 2, 5, 7 – 3
2 – 1, 7
1 – 2, 3, 7 – 6, 8
1, 2, 3 – 6, 7, 8, 9