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The old Republic The statistics published on 3 August 2011 by the Destatis federal office in Germany leave no room for doubt: Germany is ageing. In 2010 the country had 13.1 million children aged under 18, i.e. 2.1 million fewer than ten years previously. Young people make up 16.5% of the population compared to over 20% on average in the United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands, and 31.2% in Turkey. In an editorial entitled “the old Republic”, the newspaper Die Welt voiced its concern: "We are rich, granted, but this depends on the context: in terms of GDP Germany is one of Europe’s most affluent countries; but when the number of children is the yardstick, statisticians regularly point out how poor we are." As the European Union’s most heavily populated country today, Germany could see its population dwindle from 81 million to 65 million inhabitants between now and 2060.
opulation P explosion or crash? How many of us will there be in 2050? Or in 2100? Although the demographic outlook makes it possible to develop future scenarios, it does not foretell the future. For instance, on the global scale the UN has just published new and upwardly revised projections regarding the evolution of the world population (World Population Prospects) by 2100. There are currently 7 billion people on Earth, but there will be 9.3 billion by 2050 (150 million more compared to previous projections) and 10.1 billion by the end of the 21st century (a billion more than previous forecasts were saying). The calculations are based on assessments of fertility, which is a key factor but one that is very difficult to forecast. A slight variation in the fertility rate could change everything: fertility below 0.5 children per woman compared to the average trend would yield a world population of 6.2 billion by 2100; but fertility of over 0.5 children would raise the same projected figure to 15.8 billion!
urope’s E over-60s
Faster ageing in the South, and in greater numbers Contrary to what people might believe, the “South” (Magreb, Middle East and Western Asia) is ageing a lot more rapidly than the “North”, and in larger numbers (by 2050 the developed regions will have 416 million over-60s, compared to 1.6 billion in the less developed regions). The relevant share of the over-65s is set to double in 20 to 30 years, whereas this took 100 years or more in most European countries. The most extreme examples are Pakistan and Iran: the former is in the midst of a population boom whose fertility rate (5 children per woman) is not declining; the latter is a ticking time bomb that is forecast to be a second “demographic Japan” 50 years on. Subsaharan Africa, the world’s youngest region, is a special case. Most of its countries still have age pyramids that actually resemble one (in contrast to the cylindrical shapes in our part of the world). The populations of Uganda, Zambia and Gabon, which were very young to start with, have actually grown even younger recently. Although the region will also be affected by ageing, as yet it is difficult to predict when and how.
The case of the BRICs
u 1950:
67 million (12.1%) 111 million (16.4%) u 2000: 147 million (20.3%) u 2009: 187.5 million (22%) u 2025: 230 million (27%) u 2050: 281.3 million (33%) u 1975:
UN World Population Ageing Report, 2009 beyond 2050, when 20 to 30% of the population will be older than 65.
The crux of Europe’s problem If the trends are borne out, by 2050 Europe’s population will have become both older and smaller. The reason is twofold: birth rates are below the renewal rate (2.1%) in most of the EU’s Member States (between 1.6 and 1.7 on average) while life expectancy at birth is longer (now standing at 76.8 years, women and men combined, it is set to reach 81 years for men and 86 for women by 2050). However, a fall in the death rate is all it takes, hence the global dimension of the problem. At the current rate, by the middle of the 21st century the number of people aged between 15 and 64 years will have fallen by 48 million, but there will be 58 million more over-65s. Europe will have around 18 million fewer children than today. By 2030 the EU’s labour market will face a shortfall of
With the exception of South Africa, where the situation is very much comparable with the position elsewhere in Subsaharan Africa, the emerging nations are all affected by the phenomenon, but to different degrees. Faced with a steady drop in its population In 2009, the average age of the EU since 1992, Russia during the population stood at 40.6; by 2060 it is Putin years adopted an active expected to reach 47.9. pro-birth policy, which has continued under Medvedev; Eurostat Demography Report 2010 however, this is not expected to rescue the country from paying a high price for ageing in 40 years’ time (the most alarmist figures predict that the public debt will swell to 585% of GDP). In the cases of u 1950: 250 million China, India and Brazil, the u 2009: 737 million problem essentially will arise u 2050: 2 billion
orld population W aged 60 and over
World Population Ageing Report 2009, UN