KCM and DPR Realty June 2024 National and Local AZ Housing Market Update, Shambreskis and Howard

Page 1

June 2024 DPR Realty

Peter Shambreskis, REALTOR®, ABR, CRS, GRI, SFR 480-229-6468 Corinne Howard, REALTOR®, ePRO, GRI, SFR, SRS 480-229-6467 info@ShambreskisAndHoward.com www.ShowScottsdaleHomes.com CONTACT US TO DISCUSS YOUR LOCAL ARIZONA REAL ESTATE MARKET

What Every Buyer Needs To Know About Home

Prices

Buy now, or wait? That’s the question prospective homeowners have been struggling to answer in today’s housing market. Home prices have been skyrocketing recently, and the Federal Reserve’s work to tame inflation sent mortgage rates soaring, too. The combination has led many would-be buyers to pick the “wait” side of the equation.

- Bankrate

Home buyers face the most difficult affordability conditions in nearly 40 years . . .

Home Values Climb This Month

-0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.7 1.3
0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 1.2 0.1 Jan '23 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '24 Feb Mar FHFA Percent Change Home Values, Month-Over-Month (Seasonally Adjusted)
Case-Shiller

Astonishingly, greater than 90 percent of the country’s metro areas experience home price growth despite facing the highest mortgage rates in two decades . . . In the current market, rising prices are the direct result of insufficient housing supply not meeting the full demand.

. . . with the continued imbalance between supply and demand, home prices are expected to keep rising.

- The Mortgage Reports

2024 Home Price Forecasts

Percent Appreciation/Depreciation as of 6/3/2024

3.0 4.8 4.1 3.8 3.8 1.9 1.8 0.5
of All 7
Average
MBA
Fannie Mae
Goldman Sachs HPES Zillow NAR
Freddie Mac

In the current market, rising prices are the direct result of insufficient housing supply not meeting the full demand.

What Every Buyer Needs To Know About Inventory

I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale! And currently inventory is increasing year-over-year but is still well below pre-pandemic levels.

Inventory Rising, But Still Low

Compared to the Same Weeks in 2023 and 2019 38.4%

Same Week in 2023 Same Week in 2019

Source: Calculated

Risk
-35.7%

Existing Home Inventory

Active Listings, May of Each Year

1,253,854 1,156,910 1,180,920 928,370

787,722

Source: Realtor.com
447,662 479,462 582,441
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Inventory Continues To Improve

Source: Realtor.com
Active
Thousands200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 May 2024 787,722 35.2% Y-O-Y
Monthly Listings Counts in

Inventory Continues To Improve

Source: Realtor.com
Active
Thousands200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 May 2024 787,722 35.2% Y-O-Y
Monthly Listings Counts in

Change in Inventory

Year-Over-Year, May 2024

Source: Realtor.com

. . . sellers continued to list their homes in higher numbers this May as newly listed homes were 6.2% above last year’s levels. While a notable deceleration from last month’s 12.2% growth rate, it marks the seventh month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.

- Realtor.com

New Listings Above Last Year’s Level

200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Realtor.com Monthly
May 2024 432,140 6.2% Y-O-Y
Source:
Counts

Why are new listings up year-over-year?

The lock-in effect is easing a bit as the initial mortgage rate shock recedes in the rearview mirror, and as some sellers come to terms with the fact that their life circumstances have changed, and sub-4% mortgage rates aren’t returning anytime soon. Additionally, some newbie investors who piled into the market during the boom are realizing that being a landlord isn’t easy.

. . . after two years of higher mortgage rates, sellers are slowly coming back into the market. We’ll continue to have gradually more sellers.

1 in 3 Homes on the Market Today Are New Construction

Average for 1983-2019: 13%

Source: NAR, Census

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 1/1/1983 10/1/1983 7/1/1984 4/1/1985 1/1/1986 10/1/1986 7/1/1987 4/1/1988 1/1/1989 10/1/1989 7/1/1990 4/1/1991 1/1/1992 10/1/1992 7/1/1993 4/1/1994 1/1/1995 10/1/1995 7/1/1996 4/1/1997 1/1/1998 10/1/1998 7/1/1999 4/1/2000 1/1/2001 10/1/2001 7/1/2002 4/1/2003 1/1/2004 10/1/2004 7/1/2005 4/1/2006 1/1/2007 10/1/2007 7/1/2008 4/1/2009 1/1/2010 10/1/2010 7/1/2011 4/1/2012 1/1/2013 10/1/2013 7/1/2014 4/1/2015 1/1/2016 10/1/2016 7/1/2017 4/1/2018 1/1/2019 10/1/2019 7/1/2020 4/1/2021 1/1/2022 10/1/2022 7/1/2023 4/1/2024
Today: 31.4%

The new home market has been an outsized share of the housing inventory, so homebuilders have been able to attract prospective home buyers who are seeing very limited supply in the existing home market.

Homeownership

Gallup
Best Long-Term Investment 2024 36% 22% 18% 13% 4% 3% Real Estate Stocks / Mutual Funds Gold Savings Accounts / CDs Bonds Cryptocurrency
Source:
America’s Opinion of

. . . our research continues to show that the vast majority of prospective homebuyers overwhelmingly feel buying a home, now or in the future, is the best decision for them in the long run.

Emotional Value of Homeownership

Most homeowners and renters agree on the many financial and emotional benefits of homeownership:

89%

67%

58%

Said that the idea of owning a home brings emotional fulfillment rather than added stress

Of prospective homebuyers would prefer to own a home for the sense of permanence and emotional stability it provides, rather than the flexibility of renting

Of prospective homebuyers said that owning a home is the best long-term decision for them to have control over their own living space

Bank of America Institute
Source:

The decision between renting and owning a home is a significant one, impacting your finances, lifestyle, and future. While renting offers flexibility and minimal responsibility for maintenance, owning a house brings a suite of benefits that can have lasting positive effects on your life and financial well-being.

- FinHabits

Benefits of Owning a Home

Instead of Renting

Security and Stability

Building Equity

Freedom to Customize Community

Involvement No Landlord Dependency

Tax Advantages

A Forced Saving Plan

Stable Monthly Payments

Investment Potential

Potential for Rental Income

Source: Finhabits
Financial Lifestyle Long-Term

Interest rates sure do get a lot of attention. But they shouldn’t be the only part of your home buying decision-making process. After all, the answer to the question “is right now a good time to buy a house” boils down to whether the time is right for you: To start your new chapter. To invest in what makes you happy.

- Houselogic

3 Reasons Owning a Home Is

Preferable to Renting

Having a sense of privacy and security (94%)

Having a good place for your family (91%)

Having a good place to raise your children (90%)

Source: Fannie Mae

Our homes offer space to reflect our tastes, ethos, and routines without external judgment . . .

Hanging favorite artwork, surrounding ourselves with favorite colors and developing layouts reflective of personal lifestyles are all ways our homes offer opportunities for self-expression.

Most agents know what’s happening.

Good agents understand what’s happening.

Great

agents can explain what’s happening.

https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/should-i-buy-a-housenow-or-wait/

https://www.investopedia.com/affordability-main-obstaclefor-home-buyers-7970500

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research

https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx

https://www.inman.com/2024/05/08/us-home-prices-rise-in93-of-all-housing-markets-in-q1-narsays/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CAstonishingly%2C%20greater %20than%2090%20percent,not%20meeting%20the%20full %20demand.%E2%80%9D

https://themortgagereports.com/112212/state-of-thehousing-market-spring

Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 4 Bankrate Quote
5 Jessica Lautz Quote
6 Home Values
Climb Graph
7 Lawrence Yun Quote
8 The Mortgage Reports Quote

https://x.com/NewsLambert/status/1797659853403672983/ photo/1

https://img03.en25.com/Web/MortgageBankersAssociation/ %7B3a3cfcd7-a920-4329-8953167a89666546%7D_Mortgage_Finance_Forecast_Apr_202 4.pdf

https://www.zillow.com/research/home-value-sales-forecast33822/

https://www.fanniemae.com/media/50986/display

https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20240418economic-growth-moderated-labor-market-robust https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/

https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-salesascended-3-4-in-march

https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/more-than-90-percent-ofmetro-areas-home-price-increase-1Q-2024

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/housing-june3rd-weekly-update.html

Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 9 Home Price
Graph
Forecasts
10 Lawrence Yun Quote
12 Bill McBride Quote
13 Inventory Rising Graph

https://www.realtor.com/research/may-2024-data/

https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/persistence-lockineffect-eased-not-vanished

https://blog.altosresearch.com/home-price-signals-point-toflat-growth

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/existing-home-sales

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/realestate/housing-market-predictions/

Slide(s) Description Link(s) 14-17, 19 Existing Home Inventory Visuals https://www.realtor.com/research/data/ 18 Realtor.com Quote
Resources
20 Lance Lambert Quote
21 Mike Simonsen Quote
22 New Construction Graph
23 Lisa Sturtevant Quote

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/realestate/housing-market-predictions/ https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/09/business/housing-marketgood-time-to-buy/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/06/realestate/i-hired-anagent-to-sell-my-home-do-i-have-to-pay-the-buyers-brokernow.html

https://news.gallup.com/poll/645107/stocks-gold-downamericans-best-investment-ratings.aspx

https://www.builderonline.com/data-analysis/a-majority-ofprospective-home-buyers-fear-the-long-term-impact-ofrenting_o

https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/bank-ofamerica-institute/economic-insights/homebuyer-insightsreport-q1-2024.pdf

https://finhabits.com/what-are-the-advantages-of-owning-ahouse-instead-of-renting/

Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 26 Forbes Headlines
27 Best Long-Term Investment Graph
28 Matt Vernon Quote
29 Emotional Value of Homeownership Pie Charts
30 FinHabits Quote

https://finhabits.com/what-are-the-advantages-of-owning-ahouse-instead-of-renting/

https://www.houselogic.com/buy/7-benefits-of-buying-ahome/

https://www.fanniemae.com/research-andinsights/perspectives/consumers-homeownershipaspirations-remain-high-despite-higher-home-prices-andinterest-rates

https://www.forbes.com/home-improvement/home/thankfulfor-home/

Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 31 FinHabits Rent vs Own
32 Houselogic Quote
33 3 Reasons Rent vs Own
34 Sarah Barnard Quote

Updates

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://www.census.gov/newhomesales

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research

https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.realtor.com/research/data/

Slide(s)
Link(s) 45 Confidence Index
Resources
Description
46-48, 55, 57, 58, 65-68 Existing Home Sales
49-51 New Home Sales
52 Total Home Sales
53-54 Pending Home Sales
59-61 Case Shiller
62 CoreLogic Price Forecast
64-70 Inventory

https://www.showingtime.com/blog/

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html

http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/ https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary

http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html

https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics

https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom

https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index

Slide(s) Description Link(s) 72 Showing Activity
Resources
74, 75, 77, 78 Mortgage Rates
76 Mortgage Rate Projections
80, 81 Mortgage Credit Availability
82-86 NE Valley of the Sun Stats ©ARMLS 2024 2, 87 Contact Us 480-229-6468, https://www.ShowScottsdaleHomes.com

Home Sales

41 41 36 29 27 26 24 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 18 17 17 16 14 14 16 19 24 26 33 34 29 22 18 18 20 20 21 23 25 29 36 38 33 26 Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-24 Feb Mar Apr Source: NAR
April 2024
Average Days on the Market

Existing Home Sales

Since January 2014

Source: NAR
4,800,000
6,300,000
Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
3,800,000 4,300,000
5,300,000 5,800,000
6,800,000

Existing Home Sales

Year-Over-Year, by Region

Source: NAR
-1.9% -4.0% -1.0% -3.1% 1.3%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West

Existing Home Sales

Source: NAR
In Thousands 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2022 2023 2024
Source: Census
Annualized in Thousands 360 460 560 660 760 860 960 1060 jun-14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 Jan24
New Home Sales

New Home Sales

Percent of Distribution by Price Range

* Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent

Source: Census
9% 15% 12% 7% 7% 3% 2% Under $300K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$599K $600-$799K $800-$999K $1,000,000 and Over

New Homes Selling Fast

Median Months from Completion to Sold

Source: Census
3.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.7 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.5 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.3 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-24 Feb Mar Apr

Total Home Sales

Source: Census
In Thousands 422 423 524 517 557 575 495 528 477 419 372 374 286 325 421 397 475 491 432 453 403 383 342 347 292 328 389 415 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2022 2023 2024

Pending Home Sales

Source: NAR
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023 January 2024
100 = Historically Healthy Level

Pending Home Sales

Year-Over-Year by Region

Source: NAR
100 = Historically Healthy Level 0.1% -0.3% 1.3% -1.5% 3.6% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

Source: NAR
Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales)
sales
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024 4%
Represented 2% of
in April.

Home Prices

Sales Price of Existing Homes

Year-Over-Year, by Region

5.7% 8.5% 6.0% 3.7% 9.3%
Northeast Midwest South West
NAR
U.S.
Source:

% Change in Sales

Year-Over-Year, by Price Range

Source: NAR
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % change in sales -7.1% 0.1% 7.6% 17.1% 23.8% 39.7% -7.1% 0.1% 7.6% 17.1% 23.8% 39.7%

Change in Home Prices

Case-Shiller
Source: S&P
Year-Over-Year -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024

Change in Home Prices

Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite

Source: S&P Case-Shiller -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2021 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb Mar Apr May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2024 Feb Mar

Change in Home Prices

S&P Case-Shiller
Source:
18.9% 20.3% 21.1%21.2% 20.5% 18.7% 16.0% 13.1% 10.4% 8.6% 6.8% 4.6% 2.6% 1.0% 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% -0.2%-0.3%-0.1% 0.9% 1.6% Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2024 Feb Mar
Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite

US Home Price Insights – March 2024

Source: CoreLogic Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
5.3% 3.7% Current Forecast

Housing Inventory

Change in Inventory

Month-Over-Month, April 2024

Source: Realtor.com
Source: NAR Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 2011 - Today 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023 January 2024

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

Since 2019

Source: NAR
3.8 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.6 3.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels

Source: NAR
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023 January 2024

Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels

Last 12 Months

Source: NAR
-6.1% -13.6% -14.6% -14.1% -8.1% -5.7% 0.9% 4.2% 3.1% 10.3% 14.4% 16.3% Jan-24 July May June Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Apr

New Home Monthly Inventory

Seasonally Adjusted, Last 13 Months

Source: Census

8.1 7.6 7.2 7.5 7.1 7.9 7.5 7.9 8.8 8.3 8.3 8.9 8.5 9.1 Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 24 Feb Mar Apr

New Home Monthly Inventory

Non-Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Census
7.9 7.6 6.9 7 6.3 7.5 7.2 8.4 8 8.9 10.9 9.2 7.9 8 7.2 8.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2023 2024

Buyer Demand

Showing Index Still Remain Above Pre-pandemic Levels

Showing Index over Last 7 Aprils

Source: ShowingTime
156.7 147.1 84.9 280.7 251.0 224.8 181.3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates

30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today

2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 1/3/2019 1/24/2019 2/14/2019 3/7/2019 3/28/2019 4/18/2019 5/9/2019 5/30/2019 6/20/2019 7/11/2019 8/1/2019 8/22/2019 9/12/2019 10/3/2019 10/24/2019 11/14/2019 12/5/2019 12/26/2019 1/16/2020 2/6/2020 2/27/2020 3/19/2020 4/9/2020 4/30/2020 5/21/2020 6/11/2020 7/2/2020 7/23/2020 8/13/2020 9/3/2020 9/24/2020 10/15/2020 11/5/2020 11/25/2020 12/17/2020 1/7/2021 1/28/2021 2/18/2021 3/11/2021 4/1/2021 4/22/2021 5/13/2021 6/3/2021 6/24/2021 7/15/2021 8/5/2021 8/26/2021 9/16/2021 10/7/2021 10/28/2021 11/18/2021 12/9/2021 12/30/2021 1/20/2022 2/10/2022 3/3/2022 3/24/2022 4/14/2022 5/5/2022 5/26/2022 6/16/2022 7/7/2022 7/28/2022 8/18/2022 9/8/2022 9/29/2022 10/20/2022 11/10/2022 12/1/2022 12/22/2022 1/12/2023 2/2/2023 2/23/2023 3/16/2023 4/6/2023 4/27/2023 5/18/2023 6/8/2023 6/29/2023 7/20/2023 8/10/2023 8/31/2023 9/21/2023 10/12/2023 11/02/2023 11/22/2023 12/14/2023 1/4/2024 1/25/2024 2/15/2024 3/7/2024 3/28/2024 4/18/2024 5/9/2024 Source: Freddie Mac
6.94%
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today 6.94%
Source: Freddie Mac
Quarter Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Three 2024 Q3 7.10% 6.70% 6.70% 6.83% 2024 Q4 7.00% 6.50% 6.50% 6.67% 2025 Q1 6.90% 6.40% 6.30% 6.53% 2025 Q2 6.80% 6.20% 6.20% 6.40%
Mortgage Rate Projections May 2024
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 3/2 4/6 5/4 6/1 7/6 8/3 9/710/5 11/9 12/7 1/4 2/8 3/7 4/4 5/9
2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 Source: Freddie Mac, MBA Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates Where Are They Going?
6.7 6.5 6.4 6.2
Source: MBA Mortgage
2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 Rate 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.9 5.3 5.7 6.6 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.3 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.2 5.9 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 - Actual - Projected 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2023 2025
Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate

Mortgage Credit Availability

Source: MBA Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) April 2024 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024

Lending Standards Still Under Control

Source: MBA
Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018 June 2019 June 2020 June 2021 June 2022 June 2023 April 2024 Housing Bubble: 868.7 94.0

Housing Market Statistics for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes

in Carefree, Cave Creek, Fort McDowell, Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, Rio Verde and Scottsdale, Arizona

Price per Sq Ft for Sold Northeast Valley Single Family Homes

Source: ARMLS DPR Realty, LLC
Average

Average Days on Market

for Sold Northeast Valley Single Family Homes

Source: ARMLS DPR Realty, LLC

Number of Active Listings

for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes

Source: ARMLS DPR Realty, LLC
Average Price
Ft for Active Northeast
Listings Source: ARMLS DPR Realty, LLC
per Sq
Valley Single Family
Peter Shambreskis, REALTOR®, ABR, CRS, GRI, SFR 480-229-6468 Corinne Howard, REALTOR®, ePRO, GRI, SFR, SRS 480-229-6467 info@ShambreskisAndHoward.com www.ShowScottsdaleHomes.com CONTACT US TO DISCUSS YOUR LOCAL ARIZONA REAL ESTATE MARKET

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