KCM and DPR Realty July 2022 National and Local AZ Housing Market Update, Shambreskis and Howard

Page 1

July 2022 DPR Realty


Economic Slowdown


Recession Fears Surge Among CEOs Survey Suggests Three-quarters of global CEOs say we are in a recession or will be in the next 12-18 months, according to a new survey.

- The Wall Street Journal


Throughout history, during a recessionary period, interest rates go up at the beginning of the recession. But in order to come out of a recession, interest rates are lowered to stimulate the economy moving forward. Historically, we have seen a repeated uptick in interest rates followed by lowered interest rates.

- Mortgage Specialist


0 4/2/2022

4/2/2021

4/2/2020

4/2/2019

4/2/2018

4/2/2017

4/2/2016

4/2/2015

2

4/2/2014

4/2/2013

4/2/2012

6

4/2/2011

16% to 11.8%

4/2/2010

18% to 13%

4/2/2009

18

4/2/2008

4/2/2007

4/2/2006

4/2/2005

4/2/2004

8

4/2/2003

4/2/2002

4/2/2001

4/2/2000

4/2/1999

4/2/1998

4/2/1997

4/2/1996

4/2/1995

4/2/1994

4/2/1993

10

4/2/1992

4/2/1991

4/2/1990

4/2/1989

4/2/1988

4/2/1987

4/2/1986

4/2/1985

4/2/1984

4/2/1983

4/2/1982

4/2/1981

4/2/1980

4/2/1979

4/2/1978

4/2/1977

4/2/1976

4/2/1975

16

4/2/1974

4/2/1973

4/2/1972

4/2/1971

Mortgage Rates & Recessions 20

30-year Fixed

Recessions

14

12

11% to 8.8%

7.4% to 6.8% 6% to 4.9%

4

3.8% to 2.8%

Source: Freddie Mac, Mortgage Specialist


Mortgage Rates & Recessions Name

Period Range

Duration (months)

Mortgage Rates

1980 Recession

Jan 1980 – July 1980

6 months

16% to 11.8%

1981–1982 Recession

July 1981 – Nov 1982

1 year, 4 months

18% to 13%

Early 1990s Recession

July 1990 – Mar 1991

8 months

11% to 8.8%

Early 2000s Recession

Mar 2001 – Nov 2001

8 months

7.4% to 6.8%

Great Recession

Dec 2007 – June 2009

1 year, 6 months

6% to 4.9%

COVID-19 Recession

Feb 2020 – April 2020

2 months

3.8% to 2.8% Source: Wikipedia, Mortgage Specialist


Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points from the peak seen during the recession to the trough. And in many cases, they continued to fall after the fact as it takes some time to turn things around even when the recession is technically over. - Fortune


Recession Doesn’t Equal a Housing Crisis Home Price Change During Last 6 Recessions

6.1%

6.6%

3.5% 1991

1980

1981

-1.9%

6.0% 2008

2001

2020

-19.7% Sources: CoreLogic, The Balance


Inventory Update


1. Offers Received

The Breakdown

2. Offers over Asking 3. Sales 4. Inventory


There has been a pickup in the inventory that we've seen recently, but it's not from a big increase in new listings . . . but rather a slowdown in the pace of sales. And remember that months’ supply measures the inventory of sale relative to the pace of sales. Same inventory, fewer sales, means more months’ supply. - Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American


Months Inventory of Homes for Sale January – May 2022

2.6 2.2 1.6

January

1.7

February

1.9

March

April

May Source: NAR


New Monthly Listing Counts In Thousands 2021

2022

541 486 450

372

359

492

509

434

370

326

January

February

March

April

May Source: realtor.com


Existing Home Sales

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (in Millions) 6.1M

5.6M 5.5 M

2017

5.3M

5.3M

2018

2019

5.4M

2020

2021

May 2022 Source: NAR


Home sales have essentially returned to the levels seen in 2019 – prior to the pandemic – after two years of gangbuster performance.

- Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR


Active inventory continued to grow, rising 21% above one year ago. . . . In other words, we’re starting to add more options, but the market needs even more before home shoppers have a selection that’s roughly equivalent to the pre-pandemic housing market.

- Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com


2022 Forecast Update: Inventory 15.0%

0.3% 2022 Forecast - Original

2022 Forecast - Updated Source: Realtor.com


We should start to see less competition, fewer bidding wars and, therefore, less upward price pressure. In fact, a simple analysis shows that a one-month increase in the months’ supply results in a 3% decline in annualized house price growth. And our preliminary house price index is already showing moderation in house prices in April. - Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American


Should I buy a home right now?


National and Local Headlines:


Decelerating home prices Do not mean Depreciating home prices


Home Price Forecasts for 2022 10.8%

10.4% 9.6%

9.3%

8.5%

8.4%

8.3%

2.7%

Average of Fannie Mae All 7 Forecasts

Freddie Mac

CoreLogic

HPES

NAR

Zelman

MBA


Estimated Home Price Performance December to December, as Forecast in Q2 2022 9.3%

Pre-Bubble

Recovery To Date

Bubble

4.19%

3.46%

3.12%

4%

Bust

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026 Source: HPES


The root issue of what drives house prices almost always is supply and demand. . . . now interest rates affect that. When interest rates go up, guess what, fewer buyers. The demand goes down thus prices are going to soften or not be as cray-cray as they have been. And that’s what we’re seeing right now.

- David Ramsey, Personal Finance Personality


Single-Family Housing Units Completed

Average Annual Units Completed

14 Straight Years Below the 50-Year Average 1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Source: Census


U.S. Population by Generation Generation Alpha (2013-Present)

Generation Z (1997-2012)

Millennial Generation (1981-1996)

Generation X (1965-1980)

Baby Boomers (1946-1964)

Silent Generation (1928-1945)

Peak Homebuying Years Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years years and over

Source: Census


. . . Experts don’t believe the market is in a bubble or a crash is in the cards, like during the Great Recession. The nation is still suffering from a housing shortage that has reached crisis proportions at a time when many millennials are reaching the age when they start to consider homeownership. That’s likely to keep prices high. - Realtor.com


Resources Slide(s)

Description

Link(s)

3

WSJ Quote

https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-fears-surge-amongceos-survey-suggests-11655458200

4

Mortgage Specialist Quote

https://mtg-specialists.com/2022/05/11/recession-interestrates-and-real-estate/

5-6

Mortgage Rates & Recessions

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/ https://mtg-specialists.com/2022/05/11/recession-interestrates-and-real-estate/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_Unit ed_States

7

Fortune Quote

https://fortune.com/2019/06/19/next-recession-assetsmortgage-rates/

Recession Doesn’t Equal a Housing Crisis

https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2019/03/housingrecessions-and-recoveries.aspx https://www.thebalance.com/the-history-of-recessions-inthe-united-states-3306011 https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/findstories/corelogic-hpi-posted-record-year-over-year-growthin-2021/

8


Resources Slide(s)

Description

Link(s)

10

The Breakdown

https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2022-05realtors-confidence-index-06-21-2022.pdf

11

Fleming Quote - Inventory

https://blog.firstam.com/economics/the-reconomy-podcastheres-how-we-know-that-housing-supply-is-still-low

12

Months Inventory

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-fell3-4-in-may-median-sales-price-surpasses-400000-for-thefirst-time

13

New Monthly Listings

https://www.realtor.com/research/data/

Existing Home Sales

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/existing-home-sales https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-salesretract-2-4-in-april

15

Yun Quote

https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-fell3-4-in-may-median-sales-price-surpasses-400000-for-thefirst-time

16

Hale Quote

https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trendsview-data-week-june-18-2022/

14


Resources Slide(s)

Description

Link(s)

17

Inventory Forecast Update

https://news.move.com/2022-06-13-Realtor-com-R-2022Forecast-Update-Real-Estate-Gets-a-Refresh-from-theFrenzy

18

Fleming Quote - Prices

https://blog.firstam.com/economics/the-reconomy-podcastheres-how-we-know-that-housing-supply-is-still-low

Headlines

https://fortune.com/2022/05/26/the-cooling-housing-marketenters-into-the-great-deceleration/ https://bostonagentmagazine.com/2022/06/02/home-pricesdecelerate-as-the-housing-market-downshifts/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/rea l-estate/2022/06/18/why-you-should-delay-buyinghome/50369959/

20


Resources Slide(s)

Description

Link(s)

22

Price Forecasts

https://www.fanniemae.com/media/43571/display https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20220418quarterly-forecast-purchase-market-will-remain-solid-evenmortgage-rates-rise https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/findstories/corelogic-hpi-posted-record-year-over-year-growthin-2021/ https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecastq2-2022-us-economic-outlook-04-27-2022.pdf https://www.zelmanassociates.com/ (with subscription) https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-andforecasts/forecasts/mortgage-finance-forecast-june2022.pdf?sfvrsn=e3eb1d80_1

23

HPES

https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations

24

Ramsey Quote

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDDwGqTVAdU


Resources Slide(s)

Description

Link(s)

25

Single-Family Housing Units Completed

www.census.gov/construction/nrc/xls/co_cust.xls

Population by Generation

https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=United%20States&t =Populations%20and%20People&g=0100000US&tid=ACS ST5Y2020.S0101 https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-report-shows-shareof-millennial-home-buyers-continues-to-rise

Realtor.com Quote

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/housing-marketshowing-signs-of-correction-what-buyers-sellers-need-toknow/

26 27


Updates


Resources Slide(s)

Description

Link(s)

37

Confidence Index

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index

38-40, 48, 50, 51, Existing Home Sales 58-62

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

41-44

New Home Sales

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://www.census.gov/newhomesales

45

Total Home Sales

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

46, 47

Pending Home Sales

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales

52-54

Case Shiller

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research

55

CoreLogic Price Forecast

https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/

58-64

Inventory

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf


Resources Slide(s)

Description

Link(s)

66

Showing Activity

https://www.showingtime.com/blog/may-2022-showingindex-results/

68, 69, 71, 72

Mortgage Rates

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/

Mortgage Rate Projections

http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/ http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics

Mortgage Credit Availability

https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index

70

74, 75


Home Sales


Mar-19 Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May

Average Days on the Market

May 2022 49

46 44

42 42

30 31

26 26 26 32 41 41

38

36 36

29

27 26

24 27 36

33 31 31 29 27 26 24 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 18 17 17 16

Source: NAR


Existing Home Sales Since January 2014 6,800,000

6,300,000

5,800,000

5,300,000

4,800,000

4,300,000

3,800,000

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

Jan 2020

Jan 2021

Jan 2022

Source: NAR


Existing Home Sales Year-Over-Year, by Region U.S.

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

-7.5% -8.6%

-8.4% -9.3%

-10.0%

Source: NAR


Existing Home Sales In Thousands 2020

2021

2022

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November December

Source: NAR


New Home Sales In Thousands 90

2020

2021

2022

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November December

Source: Census


New Home Sales Annualized in Thousands 1060

960

860

760

660

560

460

360 jun-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Source: Census


New Home Sales Percent of Distribution by Price Range * Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent

18%

16%

14% 9%

6%

*

0% Under $150K

* $150-$199K

$200-299K

$300-$399K

$400-$499K

$500-$749K

Over $750K Source: Census


New Homes Selling Fast Median Months from Completion to Sold

5.1 4.9

4.5 4.5 4.2

4.3

4.5 4.2

4.1

4.0

3.6 3.6 3.4 3.2

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.4 3.2

3.4 3.4 3.4 3.1

3.2 3.0

3.3

4.5

3.7

3.6

3.6 3.4

3.2

3.2

3.1 2.9

2.5

3.1 2.8

2.7 2.4

Source: Census


Total Home Sales In Thousands 2021

2022

676

567 525 443

422

January

593

587

646

631

604

561

577

520

557

574

436 423

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November December

Source: Census


Pending Home Sales 140 130 120 110 100

100 = Historically Healthy Level 90 80 70 60

January 2012

January 2013

January 2014

January 2015

January 2016

January 2017

January 2018

January 2019

January 2020

January 2021

January 2022

Source: NAR


Pending Home Sales Year-Over-Year by Region U.S.

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

-8.8% 100 = Historically Healthy Level -11.9% -13.6%

-13.8%

-19.8% Source: NAR


Percentage of Distressed Property Sales Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) represented Less Than 1% of Sales in May. 35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Jan 2012

4%

Jan 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

Jan 2020

Jan 2021

Jan 2022

Source: NAR


Home Prices


Sales Price of Existing Homes Year-Over-Year, by Region

20.6%

14.8%

13.3% 9.5% 6.7%

U.S.

Northeast

Midwest

South

West Source: NAR


% Change in Sales Year-Over-Year, by Price Range 22.8%

26.0% 22.1%

-2.6%

-22.3% -26.8% %

$0-100K -22.3%

$100-250K -26.8%

$250-500K -2.6%

$500-750K 22.8%

$750K-1M 26.0%

$1M+ 22.1% Source: NAR


Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year 20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Jun 2012

Jan 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

Jan 2020

Jan 2021

Jan 2022

Source: S&P Case-Shiller


Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2021 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr

Change in Home Prices

Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite

Source: S&P Case-Shiller


Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite 19.1%

20.0%

19.6%

20.3% 19.1%

21.1% 21.2%

18.9% 18.5% 18.3% 18.6%

17.1% 15.0% 13.4% 12.0%

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 2022

Feb

Mar

Apr

Source: S&P Case-Shiller


Year-Over-Year % Change in Price May 2022

20.2%

5.0%

Current

Forecast Source: CoreLogic


Housing Inventory


Change in Inventory Month-Over-Month, June 2022

Source: realtor.com


Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 2011 - Today 9.5

8.5

7.5

6.5

5.5

4.5

3.5

2.5

1.5

January 2011

January 2012

January 2013

January 2014

January 2015

January 2016

January 2017

January 2018

January 2019

January 2020

January 2021

January 2022

Source: NAR


Months Inventory of Homes for Sale Since 2019 6.0

5.5

5.0 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.0

4.3 4.3

4.2 4.0 4.0

3.8

3.8

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.6 3.5

3.3 3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1 3.1

3.0 2.7 2.5

2.5

2.5 2.5 2.3 2.0

2.6 2.4 2.4

2.3 1.9 1.9

2.0

2.6 2.6

2.1

2.2

2.1 1.9 1.7

1.5

Jan-19 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan-20 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

sept

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan-21 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

1.6

1.7

Dec Jan-22 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Source: NAR


Months Inventory of Homes for Sale Last 12 Months 6

5

4

3

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.1 2

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.9

1

0

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

22-Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Source: NAR


Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels 10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%

-30% January 2014

January 2015

January 2016

January 2017

January 2018

January 2019

January 2020

January 2021

January 2022

% 7. 5. 3. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 6. 5. 5. -0 -0 -0 2. -0 1. 0. -4 -1 -3 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -9 -5 -5 -1 -6 -1 -9 -6 -7 -6 -6 -9 -8 -7 -9 -6 -6 -1 -9 -1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -6 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. -1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -9 -1 -9 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -9 -1 -1 -1 -1 -9 -1 -4

Source: NAR


Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels Last 12 Months

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 2022

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

-4.1%

-9.5%

-9.8%

-14.9%

-18.8%

-13.8%

-12.8%

-10.4%

-13.3% -15.5% -18.0%

-17.9%

Source: NAR


New Home Monthly Inventory Seasonally Adjusted, Last 12 Months 8.3 7.7 6.9 6.5 5.8

June

6.2

6.1

6.0

6.9

5.6

jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

5.7

Jan 22

6.0

Feb

Mar

Abr

May

Source: Census


New Home Monthly Inventory Non-Seasonally Adjusted 2021 2022

7.6

7.6

7.3 7.0

6.9 6.5

5.9 5.6

5.8

6.4

5.9

5.5 5.0 4.4

3.9

ene

4.3 3.7

feb

mar

abr

mayo

jun

jul

ago

sept

oct

nov

dic

Source: Census


Buyer Demand


Showing Activity Continues to Slow Nationwide Year-Over-Year Increase in Showing Activity, May 2022 Michael Lane, Vice President & General Manager, Showing Time “Showing activity continues to be at levels lower than we’re used to seeing at this time of year, pointing to a market in transition… Following the surge in mortgage rates, it’s reasonable to expect that showing activity will continue to ease, especially when compared to last year’s historic numbers.”

U.S.

-18.2%

Northeast

Midwest

-13.3%

-15.1%

South

West

-22.2%

-45.3% Source: ShowingTime


Mortgage Rates


Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today 6.0

5.70%

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

Source: Freddie Mac


2.0

30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today

4/7 5/5 6/2

1/6/2022 2/3 3/3

10/7 11/4 12/2

8/5 9/2

5/6 6/3 7/1

1/7/2021 2/4 3/4 4/1

11/5 12/3

8/6 9/3 10/1

5/7 6/4 7/2

2/6 3/5 4/2

11/7 12/5 1/2/2020

9/5 10/3

6/6 7/3 8/1

3/7 4/4 5/2

12/6 1/3/2019 1/31

9/6 10/4 11/1

6/7 7/5 8/2

4/5 5/4

1/5/2017 2/2 3/2 3/30 4/27 5/25 6/22 7/20 8/17 9/14 10/12 11/9 12/7 1/4/2018 2/1 3/1

10/6 11/3 12/1

7/7 8/4 9/1

4/7 5/5 6/2

1/7/16 2/4 3/3

Mortgage Rates 5.70%

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

Source: Freddie Mac


Mortgage Rate Projections June 2022

Quarter

Freddie Mac

Fannie Mae

MBA

NAR

Average of All Four

2022 4Q

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.3

5.07%

2023 1Q

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.3

5.07%

2023 2Q

5.0

4.9

5.0

5.4

5.07%

2023 3Q

5.0

4.8

4.8

-

4.86%


Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate 6.0

5.5

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.5

Where Are They Going?

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.0

January 2018 – Today Actual Interest Rates 2018 2/1 3/1 4/5 5/3 6/7 7/5 8/2 9/6 10/4 11/1 12/6 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2

2.5

2022 Q4

2023 Q1

2023 Q2

2023 Q3

Source: Freddie Mac


Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate

- Actual - Projected

5.5

5

2018

2023

4.5

2019 4

2022

2017

3.5

2020

2016 3

2021 2.5

2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Rate 3.7

3.6

3.5

3.8

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.4

4

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.8

4.8

4.8

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.1

Source: Freddie Mac


Mortgage Credit Availability


Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) May 2022 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100

Apr 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

Jan 2020

Jan 2021

Jan 2022

Source: MBA


Lending Standards Still Under Control Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 900

Housing Bubble: 868.7

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

120.0

100

0

June 2004

June June 2005 2006

June 2007

June 2008

June 2009

June 2010

June 2011

June 2012

June 2013

June 2014

June 2015

June 2016

June 2017

June 2018

June 2019

June 2020

June 2021

May 2022

Source: MBA


Housing Market Statistics for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes in Carefree, Cave Creek, Fort McDowell, Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, Rio Verde and Scottsdale, Arizona


Average Price per Sq Ft

for Sold Northeast Valley Single Family Homes


Average Days on Market

for Sold Northeast Valley Single Family Homes


Number of Active Listings for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes


Average Price per Sq Ft for Active Northeast Valley Listings


CONTACT US TO DISCUSS YOUR LOCAL ARIZONA REAL ESTATE MARKET

Peter Shambreskis, REALTOR®, ABR, CRS, GRI, SFR 480-229-6468 Corinne Howard, REALTOR®, ePRO, GRI, SFR, SRS 480-229-6467 info@ShambreskisAndHoward.com www.ShowScottsdaleHomes.com