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JULY 2021


“This month’s overall homebuyer demand rating equaled 86 on a 0-100 scale, down from 88 last month and marking the first sequential decline since November.” Zelman’s June Broker Report


Percent of Respondents Who Say It’s a Good Time To Buy 61% 52% 47% 35%

June 2020

December 2020

April 2021

May 2021 Home Purchase Sentiment Index


Monthly ShowingTime Index 283.8 280.7 248.6

235.8 240.8

190.5 152.5

200

199.2 184.7 182.3

166.2

160.4

156.2

156

N

D

128.4

84.9

January 2020

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

January 2021

F

M

A

M

ShowingTime


Realities of Buyer Fatigue 1. Record price appreciation 2. Extremely low inventory 3. Record high % sales over list price 4. Record low days on market 5. Historically low mortgage rates


Buyer Talking Points 1. Expect a turn in the market in the coming months – it’s already happening 2. The market’s still hyper-competitive 3. Summer is when serious buyers commit 100% 4. Don’t get left behind


Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 12.5

2010 2008

11.5

Buyers’ Market

10.5 9.5

2007

8.5

(> 7 Months)

2006

7.5 6.5

Neutral Market (6-7 Months)

5.5 4.5 3.5

1999

2.5 1.5

Today

Sellers’ Market (< 6 Months)

NAR


American Home Equity Skyrocketed

$33,400

$216,000

38.2%

19.6%

average gain in equity of mortgaged homes

of all homes are owned ‘free and clear’

current average equity of mortgaged homes

increase in equity totaling over $1.9 trillion American Community Survey, CoreLogic 2021 Q1


“It looks like existing inventory is starting to inch up, which is good news for a housing market parched for more supply.” Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American

“We're seeing another significant week-over-week gain in inventory — great news for buyers!” Haus

“Supply is expected to improve, which will give buyers more options and help tamp down recordhigh asking prices for existing homes.” Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR


Inventory Levels Single-Family Homes

1,050,000 990,000

870,000

870,000

January

February

900,000

March

April

May NAR


“The improvement we saw in new listings growth from May to June shows sellers are entering the market historically later in the season, which could mean we'll see home buying continue into the fall as buyers jump at new opportunities.” George Ratiu

Senior Economist at realtor.com


Seller Talking Points 1. Don’t be (too) unrealistic 2. Wait, and you’ll miss out on an extremely attractive market 3. It’s never been a better time to sell 4. Price appreciation will moderate as rates and inventory rise later this year


Forecast: 2nd Half of 2021


Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter

Freddie Mac

Fannie Mae

MBA

NAR

Average of All Four

2021 3Q

3.3

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.17%

2021 4Q

3.4

3.2

3.5

3.4

3.37%

2022 1Q

3.5

3.2

3.7

3.5

3.47%

2022 2Q

3.6

3.3

3.9

3.5

3.57%


Home Price Forecasts 2021 10.6%

10.3%

8.9% average of all forecasts

9.2% 8% 6.6%

Zelman

MBA

NAR

Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac


Builder Confidence Slips a Bit Because of Lumber, Labor, and Land Concerns

81

100 90 80 70 60

NAHB Housing Market Index

50

A survey of NAHB members who rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.

40 30 20 10 0

J 2020

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J 2021

F

M

A

M

J

NAHB


8.47%

Percentage of Mortgages in Forbearances Decreasing

8.39% 7.74% 7.2%

6.87% 5.83%

5.48%

5.53%

5.38%

5.22%

4.96% 4.47%

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

April

4.19%

May

3.93%

June

MBA


Share of Mortgages in Forbearance with Less Than 10% Equity 13%

9% 4% Current Loan to Value

With 18 Months Deferred Interest

With 18 Months Deferred PITI Black Knight


Month-Over-Month Change in Housing Inventory

realtor.com


“The only places where McBride told me he could envision a bubble bursting are locations where urban residents bought second homes in a panic - only to have the urban core quickly get vaccinated and normalize in 2021.” “We might see some price declines in the second home areas, like small towns in New England and other beach towns on the East Coast. But even there, we just might see a shift where more people decide that they like owning second homes.”

The Atlantic


Second-Home Market Surged in 2020 27%

Y-O-Y Change in Mortgaged Home Purchases by Purpose

2019 2020

9% 4% Primary Home

2% Second Home

2% Investment Property

-9% Zelman Broker Survey


Home Sales Forecast To Increase Nicely in 2021 and Do Well in 2022 Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac

MBA 7.5M

7.1M 6.7M

7M

2020 Total Home Sales: 6.5M

2021

6.5M

6.7M

2022


“Homebuyers—interest rates are still historically low, though they are inching up. Housing prices have spiked during the last six-to-nine months, but we don’t expect them to fall soon, and we believe they are more likely to keep rising. If you are looking to purchase a new home, conditions now may be better than 12 months hence…” J.P. Morgan

Insights Report


HEADLINES DO MORE TO

TERRIFY THAN TO

CLARIFY


Home Equity Cashed-Out by refinance in billions

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q1 Freddie Mac


“For Q1 2021, the Net Equity Extraction was $41 billion, or 0.8% of Disposable Personal Income. This is nothing like the amount of equity extraction during the housing bubble as a percent of DPI.” Bill McBride

Calculated Risk


Monthly Mortgage Payments Increasing Significantly

$1,200

$1,150

$1,184

$1,138

$1,100

$1,044

$1,050

$1,011

$1,003

$1,000

$950

$900

Apr 2020

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 2021

Feb

Mar

Apr NAR


197

Housing Affordability Index 1990 to Today

186

176 169

172 164

168

166 167 162 158

158

148

138 131 122

108

110

133 128

127 125 126

131

128 122

131 126

124 115

113

Years when distressed properties dominated the market

108

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Today

NAR


“These outsized increases have raised concerns that a home price bubble is emerging. However, conditions today are quite different than in the early 2000s, particularly in terms of credit availability. The current climb in house prices instead reflects strong demand amid tight supply, helped along by record-low interest rates.” 2021 State of the Nation’s Housing


What’s at Stake Right Now


Forecast for Housing:

8.66%

Appreciation Will Begin To Return to Historical Norms 5.12%

2021

2022

3.7%

3.56%

3.33%

2023

2024

2025

Home Price Expectation Survey 2021 Q2


$93,629 $380,310

potential growth in household wealth over the next five years based solely on increased home equity if you purchase a $350K home in January 2021

$399,782

$414,574

$429,333

$443,629

$350,000

Based on price appreciation projected by the Home Price Expectation Survey

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Home Price Expectation Survey 2021 Q2


Resources Slide

Slide Title

Link

2

Zelman’s June Broker Report Quote

zelmanassociates.com (subscription required)

3

Good Time To Buy

https://www.fanniemae.com/newsroom/fannie-mae-news/hpsi-dips-consumers-pessimismtoward-homebuying-conditions-sets-survey-record

4

Monthly ShowingTime Index

https://showingindex.stats.showingtime.com/docs/lmu/x/UnitedStates?src=page

5

Realities of Buyer Fatigue

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/us-housing-market-records/619029/

7

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

American Home Equity Skyrocketed

https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/homeowner-equityreport.aspxhttps://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/homeowner-equity-report.aspx https://data.census.gov/cedsci/all?q=mortgage

9

Expert Quotes

https://twitter.com/odetakushi/status/1407344750534041615 https://twitter.com/haus/status/1407322608496955396 https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-experience-slight-skid-of-0-9-in-may

10

Inventory Levels

https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-05-2021-single-family-only-2021-0622.pdf

11

Ratiu Quote

https://news.move.com/2021-07-01-Realtor-com-R-Housing-Report-New-Listings-Stage-aComeback-in-June-as-Home-Prices-Hit-a-New-High

Mortgage Rate Projections

http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20210414_quarterly_economic_forecast.page? https://www.fanniemae.com/media/40281/display https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-Q2-2021-us-economic-outlook04-29-2021.pdf

8

14


Resources Slide

Slide Title

Link

15

Home Price Forecasts 2021

https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-Q2-2021-us-economic-outlook04-29-2021.pdf www.mba.org http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/index.page https://news.move.com/2020-12-02-Realtor-com-R-2021-Housing-Forecast-Sellers-Will-GetTop-Dollar-As-Buyers-Struggle-with-Affordability https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/top-economic-and-housing-experts-predict-post-pandemicrebound-with-continued-job-growth-stable

16

Builder Confidence

https://nahbnow.com/2021/06/rising-material-challenges-declining-builder-sentiment/

17

Mortgages in Forbearance

https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom

18

Forbearance with <10% Equity

https://cdn.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/BKI_MM_Apr2021_Report.pdf

19

MOM Change in Housing Inventory

https://www.realtor.com/research/data/

20

The Atlantic Quote

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/us-housing-market-records/619029/

21

Second-Home Market

https://www.zelmanassociates.com/research/reports/2021/05/real-estate-broker-surveycontinued-price-surge-re (subscription required)

Home Sales Forecast

https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/forecast http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20210414_quarterly_economic_forecast.page

22


Resources Slide

Slide Title

Link

23

J.P. Morgan Quote

https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/gl/en/insights/living/do-you-want-to-jump-into-the-ushousing-market

25

Home Equity Cashed-Out

http://www.freddiemac.com/research/datasets/refinance-stats/index.page

26

McBride Quote

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/mortgage-equity-withdrawal-in-q1-2021.html

27

Monthly Mortgage Payments

https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/housing-affordability-declines-as-pricescontinue-to-rise-and-incomes-fall

28

Housing Affordability Index

https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/housing-affordability-declines-as-pricescontinue-to-rise-and-incomes-fall

29

State of the Nation’s Housing Quote

https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/reports/files/Harvard_JCHS_State_Nations_Ho using_2021.pdf

31, 32

Home Price Expectations Survey

https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations


Resources Slide

Slide Title

Link

40, 60, 70

Confidence Index

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/realtors-confidenceindex

41-43, 51, 6165

Existing Home Sales

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

44-47

New Home Sales

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://www.census.gov/newhomesales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

48

Total Home Sales

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

49,50

Pending Home Sales

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-homesales

55-57

Case Shiller

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-20city-composite-home-price-nsa-index/#news-research

58

CoreLogic Forecasted YOY % Change in Price

https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx

61-67

Inventory

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf


Resources Slide

Slide Title

Link

69

Showing Activity

https://www.showingtime.com/blog/may-2021-showing-index-results/

72,73, 75,76

Mortgage Rates

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/

74

Mortgage Rate Projections

http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/ http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-insights/forecast.html https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-andeconomics/forecasts-and-commentary https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics

78,79

Mortgage Credit Availability

https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/singlefamily-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index

80-84

Days To Close, FICO Scores, DTI

http://www.elliemae.com/resources/origination-insight-reports


Average Days on the Market

NAR


EXISTING Home Sales

Since January 2014 Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

Jan 2020

Jan 2021

NAR


EXISTING Home Sales Y-O-Y by region

61.6%

44.6%

47.2%

46.9%

27.2%

U.S.

Northeast

Midwest

South

West NAR


Existing Home Sales in thousands

January

February

March

April

May

June

2019

July

2020

August

September October November December

2021 NAR


New Home Sales in thousands

January

February

March

April

May

June

2019

July

2020

August

2021

September

October

November December

Census


New Home Sales annualized in thousands

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan 2020

Jan 2021

Census


New Home Sales % of distribution by price range

29% 24% 21% 17%

7%

2%

* Under $150K $150-$199K

$200-299K

* Less than 500 units or less than 0.5 percent

$300-$399K

$400-$499K

$500-$749K

Over $750K Census


New Homes Selling Fast (median months from completion to sold)

5.0

4.5

4.5 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.7

4.3

4.2 4.0

3.8

3.7

3.3

3.6 3.6 3.4

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.1

3.5

3.4

3.2 3.2

3.2

3.4 3.4 3.4 3.1

3.0

2.9 2.9

3.6 3.2

3.7

3.6

3.3

3.5 3.2

3.0

2.7

Jan-18 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan-19 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan-20 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan-21 Feb

Mar

Apr

Census

May


Total Home Sales in thousands 682 641

January

651 601

586

554

475

443 376

597

591

570

640

437

426

398

February

March

April

436

May

June 2020

July

August

September October November December

2021 Census & NAR


PENDING Home Sales since 2014

100 = Historically Healthy Level

January 2014

January 2015

January 2016

January 2017

January 2018

January 2019

January 2020

January 2021

NAR


Pending Home Sales Year-Over-Year By Region 54.6%

13.1%

12.5% 7.8%

U.S.

Northeast

Midwest

6.1% South

West NAR


35%

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented less than 1% of sales in May.

4%

January 2012 - Today Jan 2012

Jan 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

1% Jan 2020

Jan 2021

NAR


Home Prices


EXISTING Home Prices Y-O-Y by region

23.6%

22.6% 17.1%

U.S.

Northeast

24.3%

18.1%

Midwest

South

West NAR


% Change in Sales from last year by Price Range

244.5%

178.0% 121.7%

47.9%

%

-11.0%

-1.7%

$0-100K -11.0%

$100-250K -1.7%

$250-500K 47.9%

$500-750K 121.7%

$750K-1M 178.0%

$1M+ 244.5% NAR


Case Shiller Year-Over-Year

PRICE

CHANGES

Jun 2012

Jan 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

Jan 2020

Jan 2021

S&P Case Shiller


Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ago Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2021 Feb Mar Apr

Case Shiller Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES 20 City Composite

S&P Case Shiller


Case Shiller

14.9% 13.4%

Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES 20 City Composite

12.0% 11.1% 10.2% 9.2% 8.0%

6.6% 5.3% 3.6%

3.5%

May

Jun

4.1%

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 2021

Feb

Mar

Apr S&P Case Shiller


Year-Over-Year % Change in Price

15.4%

3.4%

Current

Forecast CoreLogic


HOUSING INVENTORY


Seller Traffic Index

NAR


10.5

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

9.5

8.5

7.5

2011 - Today

6.5

5.5

4.5

3.5

2.5

1.5

January 2011

January 2012

January 2013

January 2014

January 2015

January 2016

January 2017

January 2018

January 2019

January 2020

January 2021

NAR


Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE last 2 years 4.6 4.2

4.3 4.3

4.2 4.0 4.0

3.8

3.8

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.3 3.0

3.1 3.1

3.1

3.0 2.7 2.5

2.4

2.3 1.9 1.9

Jan-19

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-21

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-21

2.0

Feb

2.5

2.1

Mar

Apr

May

NAR


Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE Last 12 Months

3.9

3.1

3.0 2.7

June

July

Aug

Sept

2.5

Oct

2.4

2.3

Nov

1.9

1.9

Dec

Jan-21

2.0 Feb

2.5

2.1 Mar

Apr

May NAR


Year-over-Year Inventory Levels January 2014

January 2015

January 2016

January 2017

January 2018

January 2019

January 2020

January 2021

% 7. 5. 3. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 6. 5. 5. -0 -0 -0 2. -0 1. 0. -4 -1 -3 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -9 -5 -5 -1 -6 -1 -9 -6 -7 -6 -6 -9 -8 -7 -9 -6 -6 -1 -9 -1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -6 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. -1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -9 -1 -9 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2

NAR


HOUSING SUPPLY Year-Over-Year

June

Jul

-18.2%

Aug

-18.6% -21.1%

Sept

-19.2%

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 2021

Feb

Mar

-19.8% -22.0%

Apr

May

-20.5%

-20.6%

-23.8% -25.7%

Last 12 Months

-29.5%

-28.2%

NAR


New Home Inventory

months supply Last 12 Months

Not seasonally adjusted

4.8

4.8

4.8 4.4

3.8 3.4 Jun

Jul

3.5 Aug

3.7

3.7

Sept

Oct

3.9

Nov

Dec

Jan 21

4.2 3.7

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Census


New Home Inventory months supply

2020

2021

6.1 5.6

5.6 5.1 4.8

4.8 4.8 4.4 3.9

4.2 3.8

3.7

3.4 ene

feb

4.8

mar

abr

mayo

jun

jul

3.5 ago

3.7

sept

3.7

oct

nov

dic Census


BUYER DEMAND


“Although May's buyer traffic declined compared to April, it remains elevated from the same time last year. Of the 30 busiest markets for showings across the U.S., 28 recorded month-over-month declines from April. The exceptions were Orlando, Fla., and Raleigh, N.C., which were unchanged. Jackson, Tenn., bucked the trend, recording an 11 percent increase in the average number of showings per listing. May’s ebb in traffic suggests the U.S. residential real estate market is adjusting and stabilizing, as inventory levels begin to rise again.” - ShowingTime

63.5% 49.6%

U.S.

Year-Over-Year Increase in Showing Activity 60.5% 40.7%

Northeast

Midwest

43.7%

South

West


Buyer Traffic Index

NAR


INTEREST RATES


7/1

6/3

5/6

4/1

3/4

2/4

1/7

12/3

11/5

10/1

9/3

8/6

7/2

6/4

5/7

4/2

3/5

2/6

1/2

12/5

11/7

10/3

9/5

8/1

7/3

6/6

5/2

4/4

3/7

1/31

1/3

12/6

11/1

10/4

9/6

8/2

7/5

6/7

5/3

4/5

3/1

2/1

1/4

Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate

3.95%

2.98%

Freddie Mac


5/6 6/3 7/1

1/7/2021 2/4 3/4 4/1

11/5 12/3

8/6 9/3 10/1

5/7 6/4 7/2

2/6 3/5 4/2

11/7 12/5 1/2/2020

9/5 10/3

6/6 7/3 8/1

3/7 4/4 5/2

12/6 1/3/2019 1/31

9/6 10/4 11/1

6/7 7/5 8/2

4/5 5/4

1/5/2017 2/2 3/2 3/30 4/27 5/25 6/22 7/20 8/17 9/14 10/12 11/9 12/7 1/4/2018 2/1 3/1

10/6 11/3 12/1

7/7 8/4 9/1

4/7 5/5 6/2

1/7/16 2/4 3/3

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages from Freddie Mac

3.97%

2.98%

Freddie Mac


Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter

Freddie Mac

Fannie Mae

MBA

NAR

Average of All Four

2021 3Q

3.3

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.17%

2021 4Q

3.4

3.2

3.5

3.4

3.37%

2022 1Q

3.5

3.2

3.7

3.5

3.47%

2022 2Q

3.6

3.3

3.9

3.5

3.57%


Mortgage Rates 2018 Freddie Mac

- Actual - Projected

2019 30-Year Fixed Rate 2017 2020

2016

2022 2021

2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Rate 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4

4

3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8

Freddie Mac


Mortgage Rates

Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate

Where Are They Going?

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

5/6 6/3 7/1

2021 2/4 3/4 4/1

11/5 12/3

8/6 9/3 10/1

5/7 6/4 7/2

2/6 3/5 4/2

11/7 12/5 2020

9/5 10/3

6/6 7/3 8/1

3/7 4/4 5/2

12/6 1/3 2019

9/6 10/4 11/1

6/7 7/5 8/2

4/5 5/3

2018 2/1 3/1

January 2018 – Today Actual Interest Rates 2021 Q3

2021 Q4

2022 Q1

2022 Q2 Freddie Mac


Mortgage Credit Availability YES

NO

MAYBE


Mortgage Credit Availability

Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association Apr 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Jan 2018

Jan 2019

Jan 2020

Jan 2021 MBA


900

800

Historic Data for the

700

MORTGAGE CREDIT AVAILABILITY INDEX

600

500

(a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association) 400

300

200

100

0

June 2004

June 2005

June 2006

June 2007

June 2008

June 2009

June 2010

June 2011

June 2012

June 2013

June 2014

June 2015

June 2016

June 2017

June 2018

June 2019

June 2020

May 2021

MBA


Average Days To Close A Loan

Last 12 Months

58 58 55 54

45

May

47 47

June

July

49

Aug

53 52 51

51

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

21-Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae


® FICO

Score Requirements

Last 12 months

752 753 753 752 751 752 753 751 751 750 750

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 21

Feb

Mar

747

Apr

All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae


® FICO

Score

38.80%

Distribution

22.24% 16.43%

16.27%

6.00% 0.01%

0.25%

500-549

550-599

600-649

44.77%

650-699

700-749

750-799

800+

All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae


Average 747

759

® FICO

Score

for Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type

723 679

All Loans

Conventional

FHA

VA All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae


Average Back End DTI for Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type

44 35

35

All Loans*

Conventional

FHA

41

VA All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae


Housing Market Statistics for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes in Carefree, Cave Creek, Fort McDowell, Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, Rio Verde and Scottsdale, Arizona


Average Price per Sq Ft

for Sold Northeast Valley Single Family Homes


Average Days on Market

for Sold Northeast Valley Single Family Homes


Number of Active Listings for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes


Average Price per Sq Ft for Active Northeast Valley Listings


CONTACT US TO DISCUSS YOUR LOCAL ARIZONA REAL ESTATE MARKET

Peter Shambreskis, REALTOR®, ABR, CRS, GRI, SFR 480-229-6468 Corinne Howard, REALTOR®, ePRO, GRI, SFR, SRS 480-229-6467 info@ShambreskisAndHoward.com www.ShowScottsdaleHomes.com DPR Realty, LLC

Profile for ShambreskisAndHoward

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