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The Demographic Dip ALFA Annual Conference May 9, 2013 Phil Downey Senior Housing Analytics 571-423-8944 pdowney@senioranalytics.com


75+,  80+  and  85+  population,  1990-­‐2050  50,000  45,000  40,000  35,000  30,000 75+

 25,000

80+ 85+

 20,000  15,000  10,000  5,000

Sources:  U.S.  Census  Bureau:  Projec2ons  of   the  Popula2on  by  Age  and  Sex:  2015-­‐2080.   (NP2012-­‐T12),  Dec.  2012;  Intercensal   Es2mates  of  the  Popula2on  by  Sex  and  Age   2000-­‐2010  (US-­‐EST00INT-­‐01),  Sept  2011.  

 -­‐

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


Annual  growth  rates  in  the  75+  and  80+  U.S.  population   (from  U.S.  Census)

Compound  annual  growth  rate  over  5  yrs.

75+

80+

5.0% 4.5% 4.0%

Sources:  U.S.  Census  Bureau:  Projec2ons  of   the  Popula2on  by  Age  and  Sex:  2015-­‐2080.   (NP2012-­‐T12),  Dec.  2012;  Intercensal   Es2mates  of  the  Popula2on  by  Sex  and  Age   2000-­‐2010  (US-­‐EST00INT-­‐01),  Sept  2011.  

3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 2045-­‐50

2040-­‐45

2035-­‐40

2030-­‐35

2025-­‐30

2020-­‐25

2015-­‐20

2010-­‐15

2005-­‐10

2000-­‐05

1995-­‐00

1990-­‐95

0.0%


Compound  annual  growth  rates  in  the  75+  population  (data  source:  U.S.  Census) 1990-­‐‑9 5

1995-­‐‑0 0

2000-­‐‑0 5

2005-­‐‑1 0

2010-­‐‑1 5

2015-­‐‑2 0

2020-­‐‑2 5

2025-­‐‑3 0

2030-­‐‑3 5

2035-­‐‑4 0

2040-­‐‑4 5

2045-­‐‑5 0

75+

2.6%

2.3%

1.4%

0.9%

1.7%

2.8%

4.2%

3.8%

3.2%

2.0%

0.7%

0.2%

80+

3.2%

2.5%

2.3%

1.8%

1.4%

1.7%

3.3%

4.7%

3.9%

3.2%

1.8%

0.4%

85+ 3.8% 3.1% 2.1% 3.3% 2.7% 1.2% 90+ 5.1% 2.8% 1.9% 3.5% 5.2% 2.5% 75+  Compound  annual  growth  rates,  5  year  cohorts

2.0% 1.3%

3.9% 2.6%

5.3% 4.6%

4.0% 5.9%

3.2% 4.2%

1.7% 3.3%

75-­‐‑79 80-­‐‑84 85-­‐‑90 90+

1.8% 2.8% 3.2% 5.1%

2.1% 2.0% 3.2% 2.8%

0.1% 2.6% 2.1% 1.9%

-­‐‑0.4% 0.5% 3.3% 3.5%

2.1% 0.1% 1.2% 5.2%

4.3% 2.2% 0.3% 2.5%

5.3% 4.5% 2.5% 1.3%

2.6% 5.5% 4.8% 2.6%

2.2% 2.7% 5.7% 4.6%

0.3% 2.3% 2.9% 5.9%

-­‐‑1.3% 0.4% 2.5% 4.2%

-­‐‑0.4% -­‐‑1.2% 0.5% 3.3%

Sources:  U.S.  Census  Bureau:  Projec2ons  of  the  Popula2on  by  Age  and  Sex:  2015-­‐2080.  (NP2012-­‐T12),  Dec.  2012;  Intercensal  Es2mates  of  the  Popula2on  by  Sex  and   Age  2000-­‐2010  (US-­‐EST00INT-­‐01),  Sept  2011.  


75+  U.S  population  growth,  5  year  cohorts

 18,000

 16,000

75-­‐79    14,000

80-­‐84  

 12,000

85-­‐89  

 10,000

decline  2005-­‐‑10

 8,000

90+  

80-­‐‑84 85-­‐‑90 90+

 6,000

 4,000

 2,000

 -­‐‑

75-­‐‑79

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

75-­‐‑79 6,104

6,669

7,416

7,464

7,313

8,102

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

10,010 12,955 14,722 16,431 16,640 15,569 15,243


14.0% 12.0%

75+  population  CAGR  (5  yr.  intervals),   Top  100  MSA's  1990-­‐2010

14.0% 12.0%

80+  population  CAGR  (5  yr.  intervals),   Top  100  MSA's  1990-­‐2010

Scranton, PA New Orleans, LA

10.0%

Pittsburgh, PA

10.0%

Providence, RI

8.0%

8.0%

Tampa, FL Worcester, MA

6.0%

6.0%

4.0%

4.0%

2.0%

2.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-­‐2.0%

1990-­‐1995 Max 10.7% Min 1.3% Median 2.8%

1995-­‐2000 7.2% 1.2% 2.6%

2000-­‐2005 4.8% -­‐0.7% 1.5%

2005-­‐2010 3.9% -­‐0.8% 1.4%

-­‐2.0%

1990-­‐1995 Max 12.7% Min 1.5% Median 3.6%

1995-­‐2000 6.9% 1.2% 2.7%

2000-­‐2005 6.7% 0.5% 2.7%

2005-­‐2010 4.5% 0.4% 2.1%

Data  source:  Geoly2cs  Inc.  


NIC  100  seniors  housing  supply  penetration  of  75+  and  80+  population,   1990-­‐2010 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 75+  penetration 80+  penetration

Source:  Senior  Housing  Analy2cs,  A  Projec2on  of  Market  Rate  U.S  Seniors   Housing  Demand  2010-­‐2030,,  American  Seniors  Housing  Assn.,  Winter  2013  

1990 4.66% 8.81%

1995 4.73% 8.66%

2000 5.93% 10.81%

2005 6.49% 11.08%

2010 6.73% 11.02%


Projection  of  annual  U.  S.  demand  growth  (based  on  2010  supply   Annual  demand   penetration  for  75+  and  80+  population  at  90%  occupancy) growth   (units/year) 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Source:  Senior  Housing  Analy2cs,  A  Projec2on  of  Market  Rate  U.S  Seniors   Housing  Demand  2010-­‐2030,,  American  Seniors  Housing  Assn.,  Winter  2013  

10,000 0 75+  penetration 80+  penetration Midrange

2010-­‐15 19,839 16,620 18,230

2015-­‐20 36,777 21,714 29,245

2020-­‐25 64,721 46,628 55,675

2025-­‐30 71,451 81,737 76,594


Absorption,  NIC  100:  Maj.  IL  and  Maj.  AL  communities Adj  factor  for   Pe riod Total  absorption nursing  be ds:  .97

4Q08-­‐‑3Q09                                        5,299

                                       5,134

4Q09-­‐‑3Q10                                    11,260

                                   10,911

4Q10-­‐‑3Q11                                    13,809

                                   13,381

4Q11-­‐‑3Q12                                    14,115

                                   13,677

Average                                    11,121

                                   10,776

Est  avg  since  2010                                    13,580

                                   13,159

Source:  NIC  MAP


Units  open  per  year,  1990-­‐2010

50,000

Total

ILU

AL+MCU

45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Source:  NIC  

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

0



The Demographic Dip: An Excuse or Imposing Reality?