Security Dimensions
Relations with Russia and avoiding bilateral tensions in the region are part of that approach. The visit of newly elected President Xi Jinping to Russia, as his first international trip, demonstrated the importance of bilateral relations so a win-win situation in Central Asia is currently their only desired option. Current situation in Ukraine could create an impulse to rethink security and to recognize the need of united approach of Central Asia nations toward security based on recognition of Moscow neo-imperialistic ambitions, mainly related to the ‘near border’, at least as for now. Dr. Farkhod Tolipov, Director of the Education and Research Institution “Bilim Karvoni” in Tashkent, is estimating that “Central Asians, while attempting to resolve regional issues and construct their common regional home should concentrate on finding regional solutions rather than seeking great power mediation”104. Linking Crimes crisis with the regional setting he is concluding that “Recent developments should prompt them to restore their frozen regional integration structure and revitalize a region-building process”105. The Ukrainian scenario is for now not necessary toward region as there are very strong interconnections and influences allowing perseverance of interdependences. However, according to Russian political scientist Parviz Mullogżanow “the scenario similar to Ukraine could take place in Kazakhstan in 2016, where ‘American organizations enhanced relations with Kazakh nationalists’”, and at the same time “great powers are fighting for influences in the region, and regional governments are turning their heads to the left and right, trying to guess, from where the threat could come – Russia, USA or Chi-
104 F. Tolipov, Ukraine and the CIS Perspective: Implications for Central Asia, the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Nacka 04 April 2014, http://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/12949-ukraine-and-the-cisperspective-implications-for-central-asia.html accessed: 16 December 2014. 105 Ibidem.
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na?”106 At the same he is pointing out that the governments are the problem for itself because of corruption, nepotism, lack of regard toward ordinary people, causing frustration and also exposure to external interference “undermining the very concept of national independence”107. Another regional factor is also playing a role, which is an ambitious India, as noted by Ashley Tellis from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, “ten years from now, India could be a real provider of security to all the ocean islands in the Indian Ocean. It could become a provider of security in the Persian Gulf in collaboration with the U.S. I would think of the same being true with the Central Asian states”108. So the point was noticed and recognized as a possible scenario which could enhance of competition in Asian sphere of security. Central Asian security will face some regional shifts so the effort to be better prepared for imminent encounters is critical and limited by time factors. It is shown by the strong will of their political leadership to consolidate power and improve the capabilities of security forces both with Russian and the Western support. However, in their eyes, the lack of quick and significant US and NATO progress in stabilizing the southern periphery raises questions about the credibility of Western efficiency. The Central Asian leadership could prefer allies, who are closer and share similar concerns connected with the dangers of transferring negative trends to their territory. Nevertheless, the NATO withdrawal process from Afghanistan is also a chance for them to acquire heavily desired equipment. If 106 П. Муллоджанов, Украинские уроки для стран СНГ (Ukrainian lessons for CIS), Group Media Plus, Duszanbe 10 April 2014, http://news.tj/ru/newspaper/article/ ukrainskie-uroki-dlya-stran-sng accessed: 16 December 2014. 107 Ibidem. 108 A. Giridharadas, India is projecting its military power, New York Times Asia Pacific, New York 22 August 2008, p. 1, accessed: 12 December 2014, http://www.nytimes. com/2008/09/22/world/asia/22iht-power.1.16364183. html?pagewanted=1&_r=1 .
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