Page 1

SEPTEMBER 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 9 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

企业并购潮 逆势增长 产业投资异军突起

Buying retail

2013ฤ9Ꮬఓ


EDITOR’S NOTE | 编者的话

国企业在海内外市场上的并购活动日益频密,交易规模已跃居

SEPTEMBER 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 9 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

2013ฤ9Ꮬఓ

全球次席。主因是受阻于IPO,并购遂成为股权投资退出的主要

方式。然而,国内并购市场远未成熟,还横亘着文化障碍、社会障碍等

చ၄ѱ‫ܛ‬Ӟ

一道道沟壑。而在完成并购后,企业之间的融合更是一大挑战。在这个

୑൥ᅁӑ Ӊ၄๯ሯၻळ๴గ

机遇与风险并存的市场上,企业、基金和中介机构等各方当如何顺势而 为?互联网行业掀起轰轰烈烈的并购潮,背后究竟隐藏着什么?文化产 业整合好戏连台,一些子行业仍举步维艰,阻力究竟来自何方? 在经济增速放缓的大背景下,企业如何实现逆势增长?“现代营 销学之父”科特勒兄弟描画了未来10年影响企业增长和发展机会的九大 趋势,并为中国企业提供了八种增长战略来思考如何增长。他们认为, 战略营销思维在其中发挥着重要作用。作为一种新的经济学,营销能够

Buying retail

形成并加大经济竞争和创新。 7月份大中城市房价持续走高。有迹象显示,近期楼市调控政策基 调将以稳为主。而从长远来看,则需要建立房地产调控的长效机制。 突如其来的危机往往会让企业措手不及,甚而溃不成军。问题管



 

Executive Editor ᓍ‫ܠ‬ Deputy Executive Editor ঃᓍ‫ܠ‬ Editor-at-large ߲‫ཽۈ‬ Associate Editors ‫૷ܠ‬

Liu Chen Philip Liu Graham Earnshaw Brenda Yang, Deng Dan

China Economic Review, English Editor ‫ ૷ܠ‬Oliver Pearce Staff Writer ᓟষཽ Don Weinland Interns ᓐಯ Jessica Lee Ethan Robertson

理专家孙继伟教授指出,为了防范问题演化为危机,当导入“问题管 理”,形成“以防为主、防消结合”的管理模式。其精要在于“为之于 未有,治之于未乱”。 诚然,防患于未然胜于亡羊补牢,无论企业、产业、市场还是宏 观经济,莫不如是。

F

or years wet markets and small shops were where urban Chinese foraged for food but over the past decade that has



Art Editor ගၣ‫ ૷ܠ‬Jason Wong Sales Director ሾ၉ᔐପ Pierre Zolghadri Account Managers ሾ၉ளಯ Allen Xu, Ralph Wang, Jerry Cheng, Riikka Koponen, Julien Gautier

changed massively. Giant multinational operators have moved in and erected vast edifices that pay homage to the modern supermarket phenomenon of everything under one roof. They came along with their clean store layouts, advanced logistics chains and emphasis on customer service, expecting to conquer all before

Distribution Manager खቲளಯSeana Liu Publisher ߲‫ۈ‬૦৩ China Economic Review Publishing Address ࢐ᒍ The Plaza Building, 102 Lee High Road London, SE13 5PT, England

them. Except this is China, where the retail game is different. Urban consumers have flocked to hypermarkets in their droves, but they also still go to local vegetable and meat sellers. So as the foreign giants have become weighed down by endless problems,

Room 1801, 18F, Public Bank Centre, 120 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong ISSN 2073-2570 Hong Kong printer 01 Printing Limited Suite M, 3/F, Tower 3, Kwun Tong Industrial Centre, 448 Kwun Tong Road, Kowloon  ਓস‫އ‬ኯ Hong Kong ሧভ +852 3174 6136 Shanghai ࿟਱ +86 21 5187 9633-811 Editorial Department ‫ ݝ૷ܠ‬letters@chinaeconomicreview.com Sales Department (Ads) ሾ၉‫(ݝ‬ਓস) ads@chinaeconomicreview.com

04

September 2013

aggressive local brands have raced ahead to capture more ground by buying out smaller Chinese players. Now, even the foreigners find themselves in the hunter’s eye. 版权所有,未经版权所有人明确的书面许可,任何人不得以任何方式或媒介全部或部 分翻印或转载本刊内容。所有内容除特别标明外,均为本刊采编人员完成。文章中提 到的货币除特别说明外均指人民币。 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE CONTENT OF THIS PUBLICATION CANNOT BE REPRODUCED IN PART OR IN WHOLE BY ANY PERSON IN ANY JURISDICTION WITHOUT WRITTEN APPROVAL FROM THE COPYRIGHT HOLDER.


目录 CONTENT

8 12

30

ॖෂ৺ူ ໩ጓ݀৪ޭ

ቤ਋‫ފ‬

The House View

8 走出去 赢市场

10 Abenomics crash course

Month in Review

12௡ୡ

16 News briefs

ᓜ౺

20 Column

18逆势增长 21 Brand trust 24从危机管理到问题管理

22 Reform fakery

षტ 29 打造新海派建筑精品

Cover story

24

34 Buying retail

September 2013

05


目录 CONTENT

33

34 Cover story

Buying retail Chinese grocers go on a shopping spree

38

ॖෂ৺ူ

Q&A

31并购新变局

48 The future of Chinese cities

38网络兼并风起云涌

51 Tips for property investing in north America

40文化产业合纵连横

Report જᄌ 46 楼市何去何从 47 资产证券化蓝海

26 Meeting targets

44

28 Ground control 42 Atomic ambitions

52 产业投资异军突起

45 A brighter future

58 快时尚OUT了

54 Waiting for 4G 55 China’s pharma crackdown

ఘᒦਪ

Looking at China

60欲速则不达

ည૚Ą᯺ᔇᇝᎊ଑ 62紫竹观音

06

September 2013

61 More haste, less speed

58

Travel journal 63 Buddhist vistas


新观察

走出去 赢市场 借鉴华为人的海外营销智慧 文 | 艺博

于敢于走出去在全球化背景下推销

举办一些有针对性的活动,树立了品牌,

作都做得很好,结果忽略了销售项目的良

自己的华为来说,没有哪家国内企

增强了客户的认可度。又比如在高端领域

好运作导致订单流产的。不只有成功的案

业能像它这样,在网络电信巨头林立的当

的竞争中,华为采用了培训、点对点技术

例,也有为数不少的失败案例。在销售谈

今世界,仍然勇气十足,信心满满。华为

交流等有针对性的售前培训和技术渗透,

判过程中,华为人勇于尝试去打破被垄断

人到底具备怎样的营销智慧?拥有什么样

使得客户对你的技术能力深信不疑,这样

的市场,积极寻找商机。

的营销法宝?另外,国内和国外的营销策

再加上价格上的优势和质量的保证,获取

比如在某国开拓电信市场的时候,

略由于环境、地域以及文化等差异,导致

订单就是情理之中的事了。还有华为的瞄

华为使用了自己著名的三板斧—第一,

策略和方法会有哪些大的不同?

准地域差异化所造就的自身优势,进行充

全方位、密集的技术交流;第二,公司样

分的市场调研,深入研究宗教国家的居住

板点的考察;第三,公司总部考察。被认

创立品牌挖掘机会

习惯和家庭增值业务的需求,很好地适应

为是在国内屡试不爽的三板斧,在国外也

国内的知名企业和老大地位并不能在

了客户的需求,从而占领市场并取得了品

奏效了。当然这期间也少不了对竞争对手

海外市场管用,正如华为人那样,到了海

牌的知名度。可以看出,华为人是那种拒

的仔细研究,找出真正的对手并且有针对

外才发现自己仅仅只是“一家中国企业”

绝机会主义,致力于要扎根市场和长远发

性地亮剑。在紧接着的总结与思考中,华

的无名小卒,要在陌生的环境里让他们了

展的企业,对这期间的每一个环节—产

为人得出必须要“成为规范化运作的正规

解你、认可你、接受你,难度可想而知。

品、价格、信誉、服务—都孜孜以求,

军”的海外销售实战经验。当然失败的案

华为人通过走出去引进来,重塑了中国

确实是深入认真做市场的企业。

例也让华为人看到了服务对于市场的重要

的“丝绸之路”。 例如开拓市场初期,对于那些对中国

性,工程交付能力受到了严重的考验。从

销售谈判服务交付

知之甚少或者根本不了解的人,华为就邀

有了实力和机会并不等于就是项目成

请他们来国内看看,精心设置访问路线和

功。很多营销失败的例子就是因为前期工

而最终意识到服务交付并不是业务的支 撑,而是业务的主体。这一简单的转变体 现了华为营销体系超越他人之处。

客户关系政府资源 不同地区的发达程度和不同的文化 观念使得客户关系所能发挥的作用有所不 同,也影响着企业与客户的相处之道。决 策模式的不同和跨文化沟通带来的困惑, 一次又一次考验了华为人的智慧和耐心。 《华为营销》通过一个距离成功只有一步 之遥的失败案例,总结道:一个项目的成 败,不仅仅只是技术因素,还需要通盘考 虑。该项目正是因为忽略了团队的作用, 和客户的交流仅限于技术层面,没有相应 的客户公共关系策略,严重忽视了客户关 系才导致失败的。理解了客户需求的重要 性,就是要知道,不是说我具备什么技 术,而是客户需要什么技术。通过交流, 引导客户需求的改观,最终使项目进行了 立体营销策略是成功的关键

08

September 2013

良好的运作。华为人为此建立了客户关系


分类体系及管理方法,从制度和理论高度 加以总结和提炼。还有,随着中国在国际 上的地位日渐重要,华为在适当的时机运 用政府资源也是聪明和睿智的。 俗话说:背靠大树好乘凉。可以说 华为的海外营销策略在中国日益崛起的今 天,走向海外适逢其时。但是大环境的支 持离开了华为营销团队务实求真的工作作 风也是不行的。华为对于目前中国企业走 出去,逐渐成为跨国企业的营销经验,对 于国内的大多数企业都极具借鉴意义和参 考价值。这一点在世界经济日益全球化, 现代企业本身也在日益国际化的今天,就 显得尤为难能可贵。前人已经花费了巨大 代价获取了经验,后人就能从华为的立体 营销策略中获益。

经历风雨见到彩虹

建立起客户关系分类体系和管理方法

且看《华为营销》作者孙凯、豆世红 是怎样总结华为经验的:“‘走出去’是

了熟悉的江河,奔向远方的大海。外面的

走向‘欧美’。没有成熟的国际化人才队

需要决心和勇气的,然而面对陌生的世界

世界很精彩,外面的世界也有更多的暗流

伍和大批的空降兵,华为只能依靠自己培

真正能“走进去”是需要智慧和付出的。

涌动与狂风巨浪,华为经历了很多的风

养的一批在国内市场经历无数战役,抢关

在‘走出去’开疆辟土的中国企业中,华

雨,也看到了美丽的彩虹。

夺寨的本土豪杰作为先锋。在这漫长而艰

为无疑是一颗耀眼的明星,然而其成功的

在华为开拓国际市场的过程中没有

苦的实践中有成功的喜悦,也有失败的悔

背后所需要的胆识和付出的代价又不是每

更多可以借鉴的经验,更多的是依靠自己

恨,终究打造出一支所向披靡的海外军

个人都了解的。正是华为总裁任正非深深

在国内市场实践中总结和提炼的智慧,走

团,也形成了一套成功的策略与战术,而

的忧患意识和紧迫感使这艘巨轮早早驶出

‘农村包围城市’的道路,从‘亚非拉’

这一切是用巨大的代价换来的。”

五星级服务式办公室&虚拟办公室 ■ ■ ■ ■ ■

CBD高端商务写字楼,五星级会议设施,双语秘书及前台 专属于您的电话号码,由双语秘书为您接听 一体化全球IT设备 适合1-10人的小型公司或办事处 灵活便利的租赁期限,不受长期合同制约

T | 86 400 656 0166

E | offices@servcorp.com.cn

虚拟办公室 30天免费试用 * 无任何附加条款

W | servcorp.com.cn

)URP50%SHUPRQWK\RXU9LUWXDO2I¿FHDGGUHVVFRXOGEH Shanghai Level 29 Kerry Centre Level 23 Citigroup Tower Level 5 Bund

Beijing Level 24 China Central Place Level 19 Oriental Plaza Guomao - Coming Soon!

Guangzhou Level 54 IFC – Newly Expanded!

Chengdu /HYHO6KDQJULOD2I¿FHV /HYHO2QH$HURVSDFH Center

Hangzhou Level 3 Jiahua ,QWHUQDWLRQDO%XVLQHVV Center

Hong Kong Level 19 Two IFC Level 9 HK Club Bldg Level 12, 1 Peking Rd

SHANGHAI | BEIJING | GUANGZHOU | CHENGDU | HANGZHOU | HONG KONG + 140 LOCATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE

September 2013

09


THE HOUSE VIE W

Abenomics crash course Sino-Japanese relations look likely to remain rocky for some time to come

C

hinese officials must have let out a loud groan when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took a clean majority of the seats in the upper house of parliament in late July. The win for the Liberal Democratic Party signaled the end of more than seven years of political turbulence in Japan. It also cleared the path for Abe to pursue his economic and military policies, known as Abenomics. It is hoped that this new political unity will lift Japan from a decadeslong trough. Thus far, Abe’s key economic move has been to weaken the yen, therefore lowering the price of the country’s exports. At home, businesses have rallied around the plan on the prospect of Japanese products becoming more competitive abroad. The Japanese military has unveiled the Izumo, the biggest battleship in its armada since World War II and named after a vessel from Japan’s imperial-era navy. The country is expected to continue to boost its military capabilities. Taking all this into account, it is no surprise that a strong Japan spooks China. Since 2006 when Abe began his first, ill-fated term as prime minister, politics in Japan have been in turmoil. Abe lasted less than a year in the prime minister job, and five others filtered through the PM’s office before he once again took up the mantle in December. That period also witnessed Abe’s party temporarily lose power to the

10

September 2013

Democratic Party of Japan, as well as an earthquake and tsunami in 2011 that did widespread damage and ignited a nuclear crisis at a reactor in Fukushima. China no doubt benefited from Japan’s discord in those years. Japan could hardly form a cohesive plan for reviving its own economy let alone muster a robust response to China’s growing assertiveness on a range of topics including territorial disputes. Now Japan looks far more organized on the international stage. If China’s President Xi Jinping meets Abe in the near future, as is rumored, he will deal with a leader emboldened by popular support, not mired in political struggle. Monetary easing under Abenomics has irked China. Japan began actively devaluing the yen late last year and has promised to continue. As the yuan strengthens against the yen, Japan will import less and less from China

at a time when mainland exports are already sagging. The devaluation has tapered imports from across the East China Sea. Chinese exports to Japan slowed by 2% year-on-year in July, the sixth straight month of falling shipments. During that time, the yen fell by more than 21% against the yuan. The currency tussle is not the greatest of China’s worries. Of bigger concern is popular support for Abe’s military ambitions. With the backing of two smaller right-wing parties, the Liberal Democratic Party could potentially hold the two-thirds majority in the upper house needed to change the constitution. Japan already has a powerful military which it calls a “defense force.” Abe wants to call this an army, something that is prohibited in the current constitution. The technical change in wording may not seem substantial, but the move is at least partially directed at an increasingly assertive China. Beijing can be sure that a revamp of Japan’s military will not lead to a concession over the Diaoyu islands, a small archipelago in the East China Sea that both countries claim. Tensions over the five uninhabited islands and three barren rocks have risen and fallen since the 1970s but have now become a worrying flashpoint. If China thought Japan headstrong during its politically fragmented years, unity under Abe should prove perturbing on the issue of the Diaoyus.


CO - S P O N S O R E D A R T I C L E

WGC-HSBC Champions 2013

K

nown as “Asian’s Major”, WGC-HSBC Champions, which enjoyed a successful, one-year staging on the Olazabal Course at Mission Hills Golf Club Guangdong, will return to Shanghai permanently. In 2013, the event will once again be played at the Sheshan International Golf Club in Shanghai, where it was staged for seven years (2005-2011). The 2013 HSBC Champions is scheduled for Oct. 28-Nov. 3. Tournament Upgrade The stature and growth of golf in Asia was further confirmed last year with the announcement by the International Federation of PGA Tours, HSBC, the China Golf Association and the Shanghai Administration of Sport that the HSBC Champions will become part of the PGA TOUR’s FedExCup schedule, with money earned counting as official money on the PGA TOUR, and the winner earning a three-year exemption on the PGA TOUR, with the opportunity to join the organization if he is a non-member. The HSBC Champions will also award full FedExCup points, plus the 10 percent premium awarded by all World Golf Championships compared to a regular PGA TOUR event. Total purse increase The total purse will also increase from US$7 million to US$8.5 million. These changes bring the HSBC Champions in line with the other three World Golf Championships played in the United States. Considered some of the most prestigious and important events on golf’s calen-

dar, the World Golf Championships were developed to bring the world’s best players together and have since 1999 delivered the highest-quality, most international fields in the sport.

Three additional years of sponsorship HSBC was proud to announce a new era, extending its title sponsorship of the HSBC Champions for three additional years, through 2015.

Public Promotion Value Added Package 26th August – 30th October Every daily ticket includes a meal voucher that can be redeemed at public catering point. Holders can claim the voucher when present valid ticket in ticket exchange booth. Specific details of ticket prices are as below: Category

Price (RMB)

Validity

Pro-Am Day

200

Wednesday 30th October only

Weekday Pass

500

Good for any one day on 31st October or 1st November

Weekend Pass

1000

Good for any one day on 2nd or 3rd November

Season Pass

2000

Good for 30th October – 3rd November

Pro-Am Day

300

Wednesday 30th October only

Weekday Pass

900

Good for any one day on 31st November or 1st November

Weekend Pass

1800

Good for any one day on 2nd November or 3rd November

Season Pass

3500

Good for 30th October – 3rd November

Standard Package

Family Package

Every family pass is valid for 2 adults and juniors under 18 years old Special Package

Student Pass

100

Good for any one day on 30th October, 31st October, or 1st November

Juniors under 18 years are entitled to complimentary entry when accompanied by adults Remarks

No refund once ticket sold. Ticket can be used on the following tournament day should the game be cancelled due to inclement weather

September 2013

11


聚焦

综合 第三季度增长或回升 内地经济数据出现回暖趋势。随着7月官 方PMI重回50上方,汇丰中国8月PMI初 值也强劲反弹至50.1,创下4个月来最高 水平和2010年8月以来最大升幅。分析人 士普遍认为是中国经济复苏的证据,且主 要由内需推动,预期第三季度经济增长将 回升。

房价涨幅再创新高 国家统计局数据显示,7月与去年同月相 比,70个大中城市中,价格下降城市有1 个,上涨城市有69个,同比最高涨幅为 18.3%。京、沪、广、深一线城市同比 涨幅强劲,全国房价同比平均指数再创新 高。德勤发布报告预计,今年中国房地产 市场会更加活跃。 移动购物用户规模日益增长

上海自贸区正式设立 国务院正式批准设立中国(上海)自由贸

和王立军等作为证人出庭与被告对质。薄

两批次幼儿喜康力(3段)奶粉进行“预防

易试验区,涵盖外高桥保税区、外高桥保

熙来全盘否认对其三项罪名的指控。检方

性回收”并销毁。随后,恒天然今年5月出

税物流园区、洋山保税港区和上海浦东机

指其拒不认罪,要求从严判处。预计一审

口中国的一批奶粉又被检出硝酸盐含量超

场综合保税区等4个海关特殊监管区域,总

宣判后,薄上诉的可能性很大。

标。国家质检总局确认对恒天然的浓缩乳 清蛋白粉和奶粉基粉无限期限制进口。

面积28.78平方公里。上海出台42条举措 以落实金融改革,包括市场期待的民营银

资金链断裂老总卷款出逃

行等。分析人士认为,自贸区内税率、汇

上海泛鑫保险代理有限公司作为第三方中

公司与市场

率等多重优惠可能会引发内地企业加速到

介,激进推销保险,捆绑销售理财产品,

调查IBM等外企信息安全

上海设立分支机构的趋势。

获高额返佣。资金链断裂后,其实际控制

有媒体称,中国正准备就安全问题调查

人陈怡携5亿元巨款外逃,旋即在斐济被中

IBM、甲骨文和EMC(易安信)三家外

信用卡欺诈损失1.47亿元

国警方抓获押解回国。目前保监部门正在

企。目前国内厂商软件服务市场份额在

中国银行业协会数据显示,2012年中国信

该公司业务进行调查。

50%以上;而在硬件上,金融业基础设施 中的核心硬件被国外厂商垄断,IBM市场

用卡欺诈损失金额达1.47亿元,从欺诈类 型来看,居前五位的分别是伪卡、虚假申

上海职工年均工资56300元

占有率达70%。从信息安全和商业角度均

请、互联网欺诈、失窃卡和未达卡。伪卡

《上海统计年鉴-2013》披露,2012年

希望国内IT厂商占领市场。

欺诈占比达59%,是去年最主要的信用卡

上海GDP总量突破2万亿元,按常住人口

欺诈类型。

计算,人均GDP为13524美元,达到中上

网络零售市场增长迅猛

等富裕国家地区水平。职工年平均工资为

中国电子商务研究中心数据显示,今年上

56300元,比上年增长8.3%。

半年中国网络零售市场交易规模达7542亿

薄熙来拒不认罪

元,同比增长47.3%。预计到今年底,该

薄熙来受贿、贪污、滥用职权案,经济南

12

市中级人民法院近5天公开开庭审理,于8

恒天然肉毒杆菌事件

交易额有望达17412亿元。截至今年6月中

月26日结束一审庭审。济南中院官方微博

8月2日,新西兰恒天然公司发布消息称其

国移动购物用户规模达7805万人,预计到

实时播报了庭审情况。被告人涉案的受贿

浓缩乳清蛋白粉检出肉毒杆菌,从恒天然

今年底将达15500万人。而在今年上半年

贪污财物折合人民币2000多万元,包括在

进口相关奶源的中国3家奶粉商家对相关

全国规模以上快递服务企业业务量中,网

法国的豪华别墅等。大连实德董事长徐明

产品进行了下架召回。雅培也紧急宣布对

购业务已经占到快递业务一半以上。

September 2013


易信对抗微信

年减少3天;千万富豪出国频率从去年的3

网易与中国电信共同推出移动通讯IM产品

次下降到2.8次,亿万富豪出国频率从去年

易信,被业界看做是可打破腾讯微信垄断

的4.2次下降到3.4次。伴随海外教育的风

的产品,也是首个由电信运营商与互联网

潮,海外置业的趋势已明朗化,美国成为

公司合资打造的移动即时通讯社交产品。

中国富豪海外置产首选目的地。8成富豪

预计可能也是免费。

使用微信,已超过微博(7成)。使用微信 的主要功能是与朋友交流与互动。胡润表

拟投6200亿元建特高压电网

示:“中国富豪今年的关键词是‘健康’

未来5年国家电网将投入6200亿元人民

和‘幸福’。”

币,建设20条特高压智能线路,以将西南 的水电和西北的风电传输至中国东部。内

亚洲区写字楼市场信心指数下跌

地76%的煤炭资源在北部和西北部,80%

全球多个主要经济体在今年第二季

的水能资源在西南部,而70%以上的能源

出乎意料地放缓,写字楼市场因而受疲弱

需求在中东部。特高压电网可以长距离、

的商业气氛所拖累。高力国际发表的亚洲

大容量、低损耗输送电力。

区写字楼租赁市场信心指数57.6%,是自

调查与分析 内地富豪数量增长放缓 根据2013胡润财富报告:全国共有 105万名千万富豪和6.45万名亿万富豪,

钢企利润率仅0.13%

分别比去年增长3%和2%,增速连续2年

今年上半年,钢铁企业亏损严重。中国钢

放缓,为5年来最小。

2012年中以来首次下跌。 高力国际亚洲研究及咨询行政董事卢 永辉表示,尽管信心指数下调,但数字仍 然维持在50%以上,显示市场人士普遍看 好亚洲区写字楼租赁市场的前景。 高力国际亚洲区写字楼租赁市场信心 指数综合了四个分类指数,分别涵盖新的

铁工业协会数据显示,会员钢铁企业平均

全国有8100名十亿富豪和280名百

销售利润率只有0.13%,在全国工业行业

亿富豪。北京富裕人士最多,分别有18.4

中最低。一吨钢材的利润从最高峰约1000

万千万富豪和1.07万亿万富豪,排名第

四个分类指数在2013年第二季全线

元左右,逐步下降,最低时一吨钢的利润

一;广东次之,上海排名第三,天津增速

下跌。新租赁查询和写字楼租金期望的分

一度只有0.43元。

最快,浙江和内蒙古减少最多。六成富裕

类指数在季内取得该调查开始实施以来

人士在非一线城市,例如杭州、宁波和佛

(即2012年第一季)的最大跌幅,分别

苏宁云商拟设银行

山,千万富豪人数均在2万以上。中国千

是53.3%和64.4%。卢永辉解释,指数下

国务院提出“尝试由民间资本发起设立自

万富豪主要可分为四种类型:企业主、

跌是因为亚太区多个经济体的表现逊于预

担风险的民营银行”。家电连锁巨头苏宁

“职业股民”、“炒房者”和“金领”。

期,令市场人士对租赁活动的信心下降。

云商于8月中旬证实,正在筹划跨界建立民

其中“职业股民”比去年减少5%,“金

相对之下,客户对写字楼需求的分类

营银行。零售企业跨界开银行,对零售业

领”比去年增加5%。亿万富豪主要可分

指数最强劲,仅从第一季的70.9%微跌至

的发展会有推动作用。

为三种:企业主、“炒房者”和“职业

第二季的68.3%,依然保持在50%以上,

股民”。

显示写字楼租户的整体需求并无改变。

8·16光大乌龙事件

租赁查询、房地产需求、业主期望和租金 期望,以及扩散指数法计算。

1/4的富豪表示对未来两年中国经济

在第二季,银行、金融、保险和信

8月16日11点05分,上证指数突然大幅拉

非常有信心,较去年下降3%,是前年的一

息科技等行业依然是两个最活跃的租户组

升,权重股集体涨停,大盘一分钟内瞬间

半。房地产在调控压力下仍是富豪投资首

别,而物流/船务业则取代消费品业成为

涨超5%。最高涨幅5.62%,指数最高报

选,比例达到64%,但富豪也开始积极寻

第三个最活跃的租户组别。

2198.85点,盘中一度逼近2200点。这在

找新的投资标的。受访富豪平均财富5900

四个分类指数中,以业主期望指数

A股历史上从来没有出现过。光大证券发

万,平均年消费占平均财富3%。旅游仍是

表现最弱,在第二季取得44.4%,连续四

布公告称策略投资部门自营业务在使用独

主要消费所在,占3成。富豪日益追求独

个季度低于50%。由于预期偏向保守,

立的套利系统时出现问题。证监会开始拟

特的旅行体验,一些特殊旅游目的地受到

业主于季内提供更多租赁优惠,藉以吸引

订监管措施以避免类似事件重演。而光大

欢迎,如非洲和极地。千万富豪每月出差

租户。

证券也将受重罚。

比去年减少半天、亿万富豪每月出差比去

(本栏目内容根据公开信息整理)

September 2013

13


MONTH IN RE VIE W

NEWSBRIEFS

16

China to join G20 on global tax evasion crackdown

China launches new pharma probe

China is set join the world’s 20 leading economies (G20) in a front to battle global tax evasion, Reuters reported, citing global economic policy forum Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The country’s tax commissioner Wang Jun will sign the convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters, the OECD said. China’s decision to sign means that all G20 countries have now agreed to cooperate on tax avoidance. This comes amid Beijing’s increasingly hard line campaign against corruption, which has seen the arrest of a number of officials on bribery charges, a ban of elaborate dinners and investigations into corporate activities.

China is launching a new three-month investigation into the country’s scandal-plagued pharmaceutical and medical services sector, the official Xinhua news agency said. The investigation by the State Administration for Industry and Commerce (SAIC), which is responsible for market supervision, is targeting bribery, fraud and other anti-competitive practices. The National Development and Reform Commission is currently probing drugmakers over the prices of their products in China. Separately, the SAIC said it wanted to prevent China’s industry associations from being the “driving force”, or organizers, of monopolistic behavior, Xinhua quoted SAIC official Cao Hongying as saying.

China to set up new financial regulator

Harsher penalties following China's baby formula probe

China plans to establish a new agency that will serve as a coordinator of financial supervision, Reuters reported, citing a State Council document. The new body will be under the central bank’s control with the roles of existing industry watchdogs unchanged. The cabinet said in its approval of the proposal from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) that the new office will coordinate China’s monetary policies and financial regulations, maintain financial stability and reduce systemic risks. This move went against market expectations, which expected that China would create a super-agency for financial regulation to cut bureaucratic infighting and quicken reforms.

Chinese regulators threatened heavier fines for foreign infant-formula makers who knowingly breach China’s antimonopoly laws, the People’s Daily reported. Xu Kunlin, head of the Price Supervision and Anti-Monopoly Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission said the companies faced more serious fines if they gave the impression of complying with the law’s provisions while in fact opposing them. Xu also said companies knowingly broke the law and deliberately covered up evidence during the antitrust probe. This comes after six suppliers were given record fines totaling US$110 million.

Ethiopia to launch $800m mobile project with ZTE

China bans second New Zealand dairy product

Ethiopia reached an US$800 million agreement with Chinese telecom giant ZTE (000063.SHE) to establish a 4G broadband network in the capital Addis Ababa and a 3G project throughout the rest of the country. The transaction with ZTE is half of a US$1.6 billion project split with Huawei Technologies, the world’s second largest telecom equipment maker. Huawei signed the agreement last month. Both firms will provide low interest loans to Ethiopia through an arrangement known as vendor financing, Ethiopian officials and both firms said.

China halted imports of another New Zealand milk product after tests showed it contained excessive levels of nitrates, further jeopardizing the reputation of the world’s largest diary exporter, Reuters reported. New Zealand’s agricultural regulator said it has revoked export certificates for four China-bound consignments of lactoferrin manufactured by Westland Milk Products after higher-than-acceptable nitrate levels were found by tests in China. The incident comes just weeks after another New Zealand dairy giant Fonterra said some of its dairy ingredients were contaminated with a botulism-causing bacteria.

September 2013


Chinese authorities hold China Mobile provincial leader

Hollywood sees victory in China tax dispute

The head of China Mobile’s Guangdong province operations, Xu Long, was detained along with his wife by provincial authorities for alleged wrongdoings, South China Morning Post reported, citing a China News Services story. “Xu’s detention was ordered by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection … a sign that his case is quite severe,” another newspaper, China Business News, quoted a source close to the Communist Party’s graft watchdog saying. Gao Zhixing, a deputy general manager of subsidiary Guangdong Mobile, was presiding over the company’s operations.

Hollywood studios have settled a tax dispute in China that has held up the payment of hundreds of millions of yuan in ticket sales, The Wall Street Journal reported. A standoff over whether a new value-added tax should be taken out of their cut of box-office receipts was resolved in Hollywood’s favor, according to The Motion Picture Association of America head Chris Dodd. State-owned distributor China Film Group attempted to deduct the tax from Hollywood studios’ share of ticket sales in the country. Under a 2012 agreement, foreign movie producers can collect as much as 25% of ticket sales in China.

Beijing approves Shanghai FTZ

EIA: China to be biggest oil importer by October

Beijing has approved the opening of a free-trade zone in Shanghai, after initially dalying the project due to potential loopholes in the legal framework. The central government had planned to unveil the rules for the zone in July, but policymakers put lawyers back to work out of concern the legal framework needed tightening and to reduce the risk of legal disputes involving foreign investors, government sources familiar with the matter told South China Morning Post. The proposed set of rules could contain as many as 21 initiatives to attract foreign investment, covering sectors as diverse as financial services to commodities trading and culture-based businesses.

China will become the world’s largest net oil importer on a monthly basis by October and an annual basis by 2014, Bloomberg reported, citing a forecast by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). According to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, Chinese oil imports will reach 6.45 million barrels a day, surpassing the US’s 6.23 million. China will use 11 million barrels a day of oil in October, the outlook showed. The US will use 18.6 million. Oil production, including crude and other liquids, will rise to 12.4 million barrels a day in the US by October. China’s production will be 4.57 million.

September 2013

17


专栏

逆势增长 为中国企业提供八种增长战略来思考如何增长 文 | 菲利普·科特勒(Philip Kotler) 米尔顿·科特勒(Milton Kotler)

菲利普·科特勒

今的企业会发现,

期原因(例如,经济下滑导致对有技能失

全球经济正日益体

业者的需求下降,紧缩政策的实施会进一

现 现出双轨制的特征。这一点

步减少工作机会,降低工资水平)。

商业对策 要么紧缩财政,要么刺激市场,要么 双管齐下,在政府做出具体决定之前,我

和 和以前,特别是2008年之

面对这些情况,美国和欧洲不断增长

们根本无法预测经济恢复的增长率。面对

前 前的情况大不相同。那时,

的赤字可通过两种方式化解。第一种方式

经济的种种不确定性,消费者和企业都捂

由 由于全球经济体之间相互依

是开足马力印钞票(即量化宽松政策),

紧钱袋保持观望,从而进一步加剧经济增

赖 赖程度很高,各国经济出现

在当前以及未来几年保持低利率的情况

长的放缓。甚至有人担心经济形势会出现

了 了同时上涨,然后又集体下

下,这是一种会导致通货膨胀的解决方

二次衰退,在这种情况下,所有声称能准

滑 滑的趋势。毋庸置疑的是,

案。另一种方式是提高税率,但这样做会

确预测未来世界经济走向的经济学家都是

当 当今世界各国正处于两种不

打击企业投资和消费者支出。

在忽悠人。

同的经济水平(低级和高

发达国家经济体当前面对的发展困境

但是,企业必须行动起来,它们等不

级 级),经济增长表现出两种

是仅限于它们自身,还是会扩展到目前发

及国家通过立法来振兴经济。那当今的企

不 不同的发展速度(慢速和快

展势头方兴未艾的发展中国家呢?

业有哪些生存之道呢?简而言之,它们的

速 速)。在本书写作期间,美

很不幸,目前美国和欧洲的低速增

生存之道可以分为两大类,即削减成本或

国 国和欧盟都在经历低级慢速

长正在影响发展中国家的发展。中国的经

调整战略,通过这些方式实现收入增长。

的经济增长,预计会一直

济增速已经从10%降低至8%,“金砖四

具体分析如下:

延 延续到2020年。这两个经

国”中的其他成员(巴西、俄罗斯和印

削减成本。面对需求下降,很多企

济体的增长率都非常低,

度),经济增速从8%降低到了5%。此

业都会通过各种削减成本的方式来应对危

甚至低到了无法为其劳动

外,中东和一些非洲国家的高速增长也受

机,如裁撤部分员工和挤压供应商利润。

力的规模和增长(特别是年轻劳动者)提

到拖累,出现了增长率下滑。然而尽管如

显然,这样做会导致供应商也削减成本,

供足够工作机会的地步。此外,它们无力

此,这些经济体的发展速度与美国(增长

解雇员工,挤压自己的供应商的利润空

提供足够的税收以削减庞大的公共债务,

率为2%)和欧洲(增长率为0.3%)相

间。这就像是连锁反应,顶端企业的成本

出资发展新的行业更是痴人说梦。根据预

比,仍处于“快车道”。

削减会沿着供应链一路传到底端的企业,

米尔顿·科特勒

18

测,美国人口将会从2012年的3.13亿增长

经济增速处于慢车道的国家有希腊、

导致市场情况愈加恶劣。但问题是,随着

到2020年的3.42亿,当前的经济发展水平

葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰和西班牙(这些

成本的削减,企业产品价格是降低了,但

很难为这些增加的人口提供足够的工作机

国家的经济情况非常糟糕)。相比之下,

顾客却并不急于购买,因为他们还在观

会。至于欧盟,一些国家已经遭遇经济萧

德国、法国和美国还能勉强维持1%~3%

望,等待价格的进一步下跌。

条,还有些国家正紧随其后。在这里,失

的增长速度。尽管受到低增速国家的影响

调整战略。对每一家企业来说,做

业率也达到了惊人的地步。

出现出口回落,让“金砖四国”的经济增

出战略调整要比盲目削减成本明智得多。

在经济缺乏增长的情况下,失业率会

长出现下滑,但这些国家庞大的人口支持

一些企业认为危机恰恰是潜在的机遇,是

逐步升高,各国政府必须拿出更多预算保

着可观的国内市场,从而使问题的严重程

“千载难逢”的好机会。实际上的确如

障日益增加的失业者的基本生活。具体来

度得到了缓和。出口收入减少,“金砖四

此,一场行业性或全国性危机往往是企业

说,失业成本包括增长放缓、失业福利、

国”可以重点开发国内市场,在这里实现

扩大市场份额的最佳时机。在经济发展正

医保成本和民众信心的普遍低落。

高增长率。例如,巴西可以开发其东北地

常时期,企业很难收购其他公司的股份,

失业状况的延续往往存在两种原因:

区,中国可以建设其西部地区。通过将经

因为对方融资渠道畅通,做好了防御工

一是劳动结构原因(例如,自动化程度提

济增长目标转移到国内市场,这些身处经

事。但是在经济不景气的状况下,很多公

高,一些职位需要工作者掌握特定技能,

济快车道的国家能继续保持较好的发展

司会出现资不抵债,无法从银行获得足够

导致当前失业者无法从事);二是经济周

态势。

现金或是借贷成本高涨,出现重要员工流

September 2013


目标可以是努力成为某个行业表现最佳的 经济引擎。比方说,希望成为全球最佳的 医院可以努力学习医疗技术和其他医院的 最佳实践方案;希望以高效方式建造楼宇 的机械设备公司可以努力采用新式科技, 学习竞争对手的成功做法。 显然,在此过程中有些企业会明智地 找到短期赢利方案摆脱危机,而其他企业 仍然要靠削减成本和降低价格的方式来维 持生存。问题是,包括降低工资在内的削 减成本只会让更多的人加入失业大军,而 降低价格则意味着压缩利润空间,导致企 业变弱,在面对强大竞争对手时根本不堪 一击。换句话说,这样的企业往往会被其 竞争对手以低廉的价格收购,或是在清算 中黯然破产。 低速增长经济环境下的企业该怎样摆 脱困境 面对如此严峻的现实,下面我们来看 实现稳定增长的最好方式是明确公司目标

看企业怎样才能实现增长与繁荣。对此, 我们准备从两个角度来探讨:一是确定存

失,库存严重积压等情况。这时,拥有充

思考这些问题可以帮助企业很好地进

足现金的企业就能以低廉的成本实现扩

行战略调整,充分利用危机带来的机遇,

张,包括招募对方的优秀人才,收购对方

而不是成为经济危机的牺牲品。

在增长机遇的九大趋势;二是提出帮助企 业摆脱低速增长困扰的八条途径。 下面是未来10年(2013~2023年)

库存产品等,甚至有可能将竞争对手整个

那么,在低速增长的经济环境下,

影响企业增长和发展机会的九大趋势:第

兼并。例如,在最近的经济萧条中,当大

企业应当怎样实现增长呢?首先要注意的

一,财富和经济权在全球的重新分配。第

部分航空公司都在努力削减成本时,捷蓝

是,我们要追求的不是毛增长,即不计代

二,从全球到局部、从局部到地方的战略

航空(JetBlue Airways)公司却准备增

价的增长。大家都知道商人赔本做买卖的

重心转移。第三,城市化和基础设施建设

加70个新航班,投资数十亿美元实现快速

情形,你问他怎么赢利,他的回答是“以

的继续增长。第四,科学技术领域创造的

发展。对此,我们将在后面详细说明。

量取胜”—这可不是我们要找的答案。

新机遇。第五,全球绿色经济的加速发

调整战略包括很多种形式,具体来

谈到企业的增长,我们说的是可赢利增

展。第六,社会价值观的快速变化。第

说,在进行战略调整时企业应思考以下几

长,即使无法在短期内实现,至少也要是

七,私营和公共部门之间日益密切的合

个问题:企业内部是否有冗余部门?如果

长期赢利的增长。此外,这种增长还必须

作。第八,消费者增权和信息革命。第

有马上砍掉(注意不要伤及赢利部门)。

是可持续增长。也就是说,企业在实现增

九,超竞争和破坏性创新。

是否存在不赢利的细分市场?如果有,把

长的同时必须帮助其合作伙伴健康发展,

资金投向赢利的细分市场。是否存在不赢

在保护空气、水源和自然资源的前提下实

利的地区?如果有,把资金投向赢利地

现世界繁荣。

区。是否存在赔钱的产品或服务?如果 有,把资金投向赚钱的产品或服务。服务

八种途径 下面我们来看看实现企业增长的八种 最有效的途径。尽管深陷缓慢经济增长的

九大趋势

泥淖,采用这些方式仍然能帮助企业实现

特定的客户群体是否得不偿失?如果是,

对于企业来说,实现稳定增长的最好

突破。对于这些方式的研究,我们不妨称

那就把他们留给竞争对手去头疼。我们有

方式是明确公司目标,并确保所有利益相

其为“增长经济学”。但有一点需要说明

没有利用国内和国际经济中低劳动成本和

关者为实现这个目标而努力奋斗。尽管这

的是,增长本身并不是一个充分目标。企

资本成本部分的优势,达到降低成本和实

种奋斗精神时常体现于战争年代,但在当

业实现增长的方式有很多种,可通过大幅

现竞争价格优势的目的?

今的和平时期它仍是不可或缺的。企业的

降价和亏本经营的方式增长,可短期井

September 2013

19


专栏

采用这八种途径,企业就一定能实现战略调整

喷式增长。对此,我们通常区分为管理 式增长和非管理式增长。

达到宣传战略和引发行动的目的?第四,

为此,我们将这八种途径加以综述,

通过创新产品、服务和体验实现增长。你

在实现增长方面,我们关注的兴趣

帮助希望实现成功的企业更全面地了解自

的企业怎样开发创新文化?怎样构思新的

在于:第一,它应当是赢利性的增长;第

己的处境以及八种途径可创造的机遇。通

产品和体验?第五,通过国际扩张实现增

二,它应当是可持续的增长。所谓赢利

过评估在这八个方面的现状,企业可得出

长。你的企业怎样寻找和进入具有高增长

性,是指这种增长不仅是短期性的,而且

以下三种结论:

率的国际宏观和微观市场?第六,通过合

是长期性的。有时候,为实现长期赢利,

最佳状况是,你的企业已全部掌握

并、收购、联盟和合资实现增长。你的企

企业必须大量投资,维持微薄利润。所谓

八种增长途径,保证了企业的出色销售和

业该怎样从合并、收购、联盟和合资活动

可持续,是指从长期来看企业必须满足利

利润增长。你的企业成功掌握某些增长途

中寻找机遇,实现增长?第七,通过建立

益相关方的需求以及整个社区和社会的需

径,但在其他途径方面做得还很不够。你

良好的社会责任声誉实现增长。你的企业

求。如果一家企业增长迅速,但是对空

的目标是制定有效可行的方案,努力提高

该怎样改善社会形象,才能赢得公众和利

气、水源和土地造成严重污染,这种增长

在弱势途径方面的表现。和成功的竞争对

益相关方更大的尊重和支持?第八,通过

对地球的自然资源来说显然是不可持续

手相比,你的企业在这八种增长途径的表

与政府和非政府组织合作实现增长。你的

的,它最终会伤害到所有的企业。

现乏善可陈。此时,你必须找到需要优先

企业该怎样在此类合作中寻找机遇,才能

强化,可迅速产生效果的途径,使公司从

更好地满足公众、社会和个人需求?

我们的目标是要对这八种途径进行检 验,并在每一章末尾提出问题。企业应认 真回答这些问题,思考有没有最大程度地 利用这些途径实现可赢利和可持续增长。

20

须结合起来使用才会有效。

业绩平平跃升至令人瞩目。 接下来的问题是:企业实现可赢利和 可持续增长的八条途径到底是什么呢?

我们的观点是,战略营销思维在这八 种途径中发挥着重要作用。营销是关注顾 客的力量,而顾客正是创造消费、支出和

关于这八种途径目前已经有很多研究和介

第一,通过扩大市场份额实现增长。

就业的关键要素。换言之,营销即一种新

绍,有很多著作详述如何进行成功的兼并

超越竞争对手,有效提高市场份额的最好

的经济学,它能提出实际行动,在国家内

和收购、如何塑造强势品牌、如何开发富

办法是什么?第二,通过开发忠诚的客户

部以及国家之间形成并加大经济竞争和创

有创意的文化、如何寻找海外发展机会

和利益相关方实现增长。你的企业怎样

新。通过采用这八种途径,你的企业一定

等。但是,当企业选择其中一条途径,结

拓展“粉丝”?怎样开发忠诚的价值链伙

能实现战略调整,在萧条困顿的经济时期

果往往发现并没有取得巨大成功,出现这

伴?第三,通过开发强势品牌实现增长。

找到增长机遇。

个问题是因为它们没有意识到这些途径必

你的企业怎样设计和展现强势品牌,才能

September 2013

(选自作者《逆势增长》前言)


COLUMN

Brand trust Chinese brands and the question of trust By Paul French

C

hina’s overall economy may be in a bit of a downward spin but consumer activity keeps on looking good. Retail sales in China rose 12.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2013 and 13.3% yearon-year in June alone – not half bad and above GDP growth of 7.7% for the first three months of the year. However, the bulk of this growth in shopping is from the largely unorganised sector – independent stores, small chains and the like. This means that we have the conundrum of retail sales growing but the stock performance of China’s big listed retailers declining. China retail used to be all about the big boys. Now, it seems, it’s much more about the little guys and, increasingly, the e-commerce players. Chinese consumers continue – quite rightly – to worry about milk. These concerns appear to be giving hope to foreign dairy companies to get in on the market. In the last year or so I’ve spent time talking to a number of German dairy companies looking at the China market for the first time while the French liquid milk producer Candia is thinking the same. Foreign milk producers used to be wary of China – high entry costs, perishable product, low margins – but nowadays good quality milk from trusted imported brands can command higher prices and therefore margins and the market looks a whole lot more interesting. Milk consumption is also part of a

general health kick going on. Vitamins and supplements giant GNC is entering the market with 25 planned stores. China is the largest producer of vitamins and supplements globally, but of course nobody who can afford international brands trusts the local products so GNC probably has a good chance. Now the UK’s Holland & Barrett chain of vitamin and health food stores is also eyeing health conscious Chinese. Perhaps the way for the local brands to fight back is to open branches overseas and let Chinese tourists see foreigners buying what they prefer not to. The legendary and ancient chain of Beijing Tongrentang Group has just opened a new medicine outlet in Cabramatta, a suburb of Sydney. Tongrentang has had a few stores down under for a while but is now expanding. Perhaps the thousands of Chinese tourists who flock to Australia every day will see local shoppers in the stores and regain their trust in domestic brands? At the same time part of the healthy kick is to dump junk food, which has been gaining in popularity among

urban dwellers looking for convenience. KFC and Pizza Hut parent Yum! Brands saw a 10% decline in China sales year-on-year in June. So was chicken flu, tainted poultry scares or a desire Paul French for a healthy lifestyle the cause of the slump? I’d venture probably a bit of all three. Still, the fast food chains come. Burger King is opening a raft of stores in second and third-tier cities though early reports say that interest from consumers is low and sales poor. If I had to bet on one brand making it big over the next 12 months I’d put my money on Muji. The Japanese “no-brand” household and consumer goods chain has been in China for some time but consumers never quite “got” the concept. Now though it seems all is starting to come right. Footfall is rising at the retailer’s mainland stores and, importantly, it is converting Chinese tourists travelling overseas. I was recently in one of Muji’s Kuala Lumpur branches and it was busy with brand obsessed Chinese shoppers “getting” no-brand. Muji is opening about 40 new stores in China in 2013 to bring its total presence up to about 100 outlets.

Paul French is an independent China analyst and author

September 2013

21


COLUMN

Reform fakery China is changing, no doubt about it, but be wary of fake Chinese economic reform By Derek Scissors

B

etter late than never. The absence of promarket economic reform m iin China is now widely rrecognized, if years too llate. Much of the world aawaits the Communist Derek Scissors Party’s autumn plenary P meetings, hoping for a restart of the process. According to General Secretary Xi Jinping, his new government will “deepen” reform . But what is packaged as reform will not be welcome outside the Party, or even recognizable. In advance of the fall plenum, observers should understand which possible changes will have which effects. Reforms that boost competition and private ownership will be opposed by Party cadres enriched via state commercial dominance. Yet only these reforms can enhance prosperity on a sustained basis. Other important actions, such as environmental improvement and payments to farmers, could be valuable but are not pro-market reforms. They will not invigorate the economy or help China’s national and commercial partners. The first step in evaluating Chinese reform, therefore, is recognizing what is (not) authentic. In particular, American policymakers should be aware that China changing course does not mean that it is going in a direction the US likes.

22

September 2013

“Reform” that is not change Some policy actions may be sold as fundamental change when they are closer to attempts to minimize any shift from the status quo. The State Council’s promises to curb overcapacity, for instance, have been made for years and mean absolutely nothing. What would be meaningful is withdrawing regulatory protection and other subsidies, at the local and national level, that enable state-owned enterprises operating in steel, aluminum, and other industries to continuously supply more than the market demands. In other words, struggling state firms must be permitted to fail. Absent this, competition is largely fake and claims of reform in this area entirely so. A second example in this vein is innovation decrees. Most famously grouped under the notion of indigenous innovation, this also includes the designation of new “strategic” sectors that are deemed to involve advanced technology and therefore receive state support. Such support hardly constitutes pro-competition reform; rather, the state simply shifts the development path to suit its latest plan. Reform would involve less state direction of innovation. A third set of changes is harder to evaluate but also risks being fraudulent. The Party is working to ensure that farmers receive greater compensation when land is confiscated. There have also been efforts to enhance the

integrity of the land requisition process. While these initiatives may be an improvement over the status quo, they are not true reforms. Paying more cannot substitute for greater rights. The only genuine reforms in rural land are steps toward full and direct ownership by individuals. The situation for workers is less stark but similar. Raising pensions and other compensation cannot substitute for pension portability, much less reform of the urban registration system. Reform is not mandating salary increases; it is giving workers more choices and allowing them to receive benefits determined by the labor market instead of government fiat.

“Change” that is not reform China must have market reform to thrive but after a decade following a bad development model, it also faces other important challenges. Xi recognizes this in his all-encompassing notion of “the Chinese dream.” Almost as vague as the dream itself is one of the major means to attain it: urbanization. Urbanization conveys increases in education, productivity, and wealth that come with moving to a city and taking advantage of greater scale. It is supposed to enable restructuring away from investment and toward consumption driven by a larger urban population. But successful urbanization is an outcome, not a policy. Actual policies to this point have seized agricultural


专栏

land, immiserating farmers and invested in expanding the physical structure of cities. These neither boost wealth nor rebalance the economy. A more concrete issue is income inequality. Chinese inequality is multifaceted and politically toxic. Redistributing wealth through anti-corruption efforts, taxing the rich, and welfare payments are partial solutions the Party may well see as necessary. However, true reform would entail permitting farmers to own land and the private sector to compete fairly with the state, making widely available wealth now siphoned off by cadres and their children. Another substantial challenge is environmental degradation. Cleanup and regulatory limits on pollutants are entirely understandable desires, but they will not work very well if Beijing retains a bias toward investment in state-owned heavy industry. They certainly do not qualify as enhancing private ownership or opening markets to private individuals and firms (domestic and foreign). A last area of confusion is financial. China has long needed both deleveraging (to deal with excess credit) and financial reform (to make credit allocation more efficient). However, these are distinct problems. The steps taken this past spring to check the growth of credit were prudent, but they only restricted total volume after wild growth. They did not move to commercialize the financial system by increasing the private share or enhancing creditor rights with respect to state entities.

American perceptiveness The American track record in assessing Chinese economic policy is poor.

Bilateral negotiations for World Trade Organization accession did not secure a durable Chinese commitment to the market. The US failed to anticipate the statist relapse during the Hu Jintao government or the ensuing structural weakening of the Chinese economy. A resumption of Chinese reform has global import, and the US must be able to identify it correctly. There will likely be fraudulent reform announcements involving what are just new state priorities, and there will certainly be substantial changes of a populist bent. These do not indicate that China has moved in the direction the US prefers. Indeed, what Beijing announces as reform might be used as an excuse not to engage in pro-market change. The first step, where the US has stumbled in the past, is understanding what Beijing intends to accomplish. Next, the US should press for authentic reform. The re-launched talks on a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) are an ideal venue. A BIT would feature specific protections for American investors, but there is some room to emphasize broader concessions. Indirect pressure can be applied through the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Core reforms, such as those needed for a strong version of competitive neutrality, should be non-negotiable.

For reform to be as effective as possible, Washington must offer carrots as well. If China wishes to join the TPP, its eventual commitments pertaining to individual sectors can be phased in. BIT negotiations should not just protect Chinese investment in the US but pave the way for it. Chinese financial reform risks acute instability. As the reserve currency country and repository for most Chinese currency reserves, the US can create mechanisms that help Beijing avoid financial shocks.

Let the buyer beware China’s fall reform decisions are the major global economic event of 2013. They must be interpreted correctly. A vital step is understanding that announced changes – for example, with respect to urbanization or environmental improvements –may not signify much and definitely may not constitute pro-market reform. The US should push on multiple fronts for genuine reform and assist Chinese efforts to the extent possible.

Derek Scissors is a senior research fellow in Asia economic policy in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation in Washington, DC

September 2013

23


专栏

从危机管理到问题管理 为了防范危机的形成必须导入问题管理 文 | 孙继伟 上海大学危机与问题管理研究中心主任、教授

如其来的危机往往

出售给三井住友融资租赁公司,回租使

动式管理”,铁三局运输公司、济南铁路

以迅雷不及掩耳之

用。2013年1月,日本麒麟控股有限公司

局等企业称为“盯问题工作法”,通用电

势 势打乱企业的正常秩序,甚

决定出售位于东京的总部大楼以及旗下麒

气公司称为“群策群力”。

至让企业陷入困境或绝境。 至

麟啤酒公司的总部大楼,出售两幢总部大

但是,危机背后玄机不同。 但

楼计划收回资金150~300亿日元。

危机一旦形成,即使已经采 危 取了很好的危机管理,也 孙继伟

上业务和部门裁减,共裁减了10万多名员

寻觅好方案,不如全力抓问题

工。80年代末,员工士气低落、人心惶

会给企业造成难以挽回的损 会

上述事例说明:在变化环境中,没有

惶,下属与上司相互抱怨。韦尔奇为了改

失。千里之堤,溃于蚁穴, 失

一劳永逸的好方案,应对问题能力建设才

变这一局面,大力推行了一种叫做Work-

为了防范危机的形成,必须 为

是最重要的。问题管理正是强调培育员工

Out(一种译法是“群策群力”、另一种

分析和解决问题的能力、防范小问题积累

译法是“倾力解决”)的管理方法,有组

成大问题的能力、防范问题演变为危机的

织、规模化、集中化地动员广大员工提出

能力,而不是拟定一套现成的解决方案。

问题、研讨问题、形成解决方案或建议。

导入问题管理。

卓越企业衰落,成功经验失效 吉姆·柯林斯的《从优秀到卓越》

问题管理倡导全力抓问题、全员盯问

通用电气公司的“群策群力”总是

(Good to Great)一书讲述了多家国际

题,强调员工的全面参与管理。充分、广

以规范化的流程实施,通常包括下列七个

著名企业的成功经验,这些企业被专家学

泛地动员各层次员工(尤其是基层员工)

步骤:选择讨论的议题。选择跨专业、跨

者和企业家奉为圭臬、当作楷模。但是,

提出问题、研讨问题、形成解决方案或建

部门的员工组成小组来研讨问题。选择一

三十年河东,三十年河西,卓越企业纷纷

议,不仅对改进管理行之有效,而且这一

个“倡议者”,由他监控过程一直到实

衰落。

过程本身就能调动员工的积极性。

施。由与会者们召开三天(或两天半)的

艾伦·沃策尔曾让濒临绝境的Cir-

全力抓问题、全员盯问题的管理模

会议,拟出解决问题的建议。把建议交给

cuit City公司起死回生,走向辉煌,被

式在实践中名称和做法有所差异。南京红

高层管理人员,决定是否采纳。必要时针

《从优秀到卓越》一书收录为走向卓越

宝丽股份公司、耒阳发电厂等企业直接称

对采纳的建议如何实施进行专门讨论。让

的经典案例,但是,Circuit City公司已

为“问题管理”,联想集团称为“问题驱

这一过程及这些议题和建议滚动进行。

破产。艾伦·沃策尔亲自写了《从优秀 到卓越再到死亡》(Good to Great to Gone)一书,讲述Circuit

City公司的兴

衰故事。 曾经的卓越企业诺基亚、索尼、松下 等公司也沦落到卖总部大楼求生的境地: 诺基亚公司2012年亏损31亿欧元, 以1.7亿欧元将其芬兰埃斯波的总部大 楼出售给Exilion公司,回租使用。索尼 公司连续4年亏损,电视业务连续9年亏 损,2013年2月,以11亿美元将其美国总 部大楼出售给Chetrit集团主导的财团,并 计划出售日本的总部大楼。松下公司2011 年、2012年都亏损近百亿美元,2013年 3月,以5.36亿美元将其东京的总部大楼

24

上个世纪80年代,杰克·韦尔奇在 通用电气公司大规模实施末位淘汰制,加

September 2013

许多危机是经营管理中问题日积月累而成


为之于未有,治之于未乱 墨菲定律告诉我们,任何可能出错 的事终将出错(Anything that can go wrong will go wrong)。潜在的危机如 果置之不理,或者应对不当,终将会剧烈 爆发。 各类企业危机频发,不少管理者像救 火队长一样,为处理已爆发的危机和即将 爆发的危机疲于应付。但是,许多危机是 经营管理中问题日积月累而成的,有些已

问题管理就是借助问题优化管理

经到了病入膏肓的程度,危机一旦爆发, 再怎么能干的“救火队长”也解决不了危

损失按1万元计算,那么在生产过程的发现

源,挖掘问题就是挖掘潜力;突发事件不

机背后积累已久的问题。

问题的损失将会是10万元!要是有产品问

是突发的,危机也不是突发的;遇到问题

题在投放市场以后才发现,企业的损失将

不退缩,办法总比问题多;与其对大问题

会是100万元!

空发牢骚,不如对小问题有所作为;有问

在危机中衰落或倒掉的企业越来越 多,一个又一个血的教训给了我们启示,

题不可怕,可怕的是本来有问题,却自以

仅有危机管理是不够的,还必须关注危机

业务流程或工作流程上游的问题很容

背后的问题,关注有可能演化为危机的问

易进入流程下游,小问题很容易积累成大

题。2013年7月出版的《从危机管理到问

问题,而且往往是小问题时很容易解决,

题管理》(第二版)强调,突发事件不是

而积累成大问题后,就难以解决了,很可

突发的!危机也不是突发的!

能以危机的形式爆发出来,即使还算不上

问题管理方法可以概括为挖掘问题、

危机,也要投入比原来多得多的人力、物

表达问题和解决问题三步曲。实际应用

力、财力才能解决。

时,这三步曲往往是交叉和融合的,在学

危机的出现并不是横空出世。危机的 前导诱因和问题,其实已经积累了很久,

为没有问题。 在问题管理理论中,把问题管理的主 要理念提炼为问题管理的“十大定律”。

只是平时浑然不觉、习而不察罢了。“千

正因为如此,无论危机是否会来临,

里之堤,溃于蚁穴”,潜在的各种矛盾和

无论问题是否会演化为危机,把问题解决

问题,从来就没有停止过酝酿和生发,它

于萌芽状态、控制于警戒线以下,都是对

实施问题管理不是要设计出一套“最

们不断滋长,日积月累,小患终成大疾。

优秀管理者的要求。从“危机管理”到“

佳”解决方案,更不要是形成一本或几本

一朝爆发,遂致不可收拾。

问题管理”体现了管理水平的提升,中高

又厚又好看咨询报告,而是让企业建立问

一定意义上讲,企业发展和成长的

层管理者掌握从“危机管理”到“问题管

题管理流程、形成问题管理机制,使员工

历程,就是一个不断发现、化解和超越问

理”的方法,可以实现从“救火队长”

愿意并善于分析问题、表达问题、解决问

题的过程。为了防范问题演化为危机,导

到“优秀管理者”的跨越。

题,使企业具有借助问题自我优化管理的

题管理”这一命题的精要在于“为之于未

题和解决问题三部分分别学习。

能力。

入“问题管理”,形成“以防为主、防消 结合”的管理模式,实为明智之举。“问

习问题管理时,可以从挖掘问题、表达问

不图形式漂亮,追求简单有效

实施问题管理中,需要专家指导、需

简要地说,问题管理就是借助问题

有,治之于未乱”。《道德经》曰:“其

优化管理。英文翻译是Management

安易持,其未兆易谋;其脆易泮,其微易

Problem,简称MBP。

By

要借助外部专家的智慧,但主要是发动员 工、依靠员工,群策群力,挖掘问题、分 析问题,提出解决方案,从员工提案中筛

散。”意思是:局面安定的时候易于把

进一步细化,问题管理包括深入挖掘

握,事变尚未昭然的时候容易掌控;事物

问题、适当表达问题、高效解决问题,防

相应地,对于问题管理的实施成果,

在脆弱的时候不难消解,事端在细微的时

范小问题积累成大问题,防范问题演化为

不求报告或方案的美观、漂亮,而是追求

候容易遣散。居安思危,防微杜渐,防患

危机。

简单而有效地解决问题,在解决企业问题

于未然,作为至理箴言,不断地被成功的 管理实践所证实。

问题管理是四大管理模式(科学管 理、人本管理、目标管理、问题管理)之

选真知灼见。

的同时,让员工解决问题、应对问题的能 力也得到提升。

随着问题由小到大积累,解决问题的

一,由理念、方法、实施三方面组成。问

(作者系中国首位问题管理专家,所

代价成倍放大。“1:10:100定律”告诉我

题管理的主要理念有:识别假冒问题、界

著《从危机管理到问题管理》(第二版)

们,如果在产品设计开发阶段发现问题的

定关键问题、正确解决问题;问题是资

于2013年7月出版)

September 2013

25


REPORT

Meeting targets Another Third Plenum is coming up. Will it herald real reform or empty hopes?

W

hen the doors of the Great Hall of the People swing open in October for the Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee, expectations of changes to the nation will amplify. Reform is on everyone’s mind. Indeed, China’s top leaders, scholars and advisors will assemble to mull a gamut of economic and political concerns, many pressing. There may even be a policy statement or two. Outside of that, though, little else can be said of the high-profile meet with any degree of certainty. An extraordinary amount of speculation surrounds this session. Third plenums of the past have in no small way influenced expectations for this year’s event. In 1978, the plenum birthed China’s Reform and Opening and signified an end to the Maoist years. Fifteen years later, the Third Plenum unleashed market reform, sowing the seeds of private enterprise in the country. In the buildup to this plenum, 20 years after the last, discussion on further changes to China’s social and financial framework are boiling over. The Communist Party’s investment-driven growth model is faltering and the mainland economy is slowing. As bad credit mounts, some local governments teeter on the edge of insolvency. This all points toward the hard truth that reform is far from finished. The world won’t know for sure until October if the plenum will be a venue for big change. Economists say they will

26

September 2013

prick up their ears for word on state enterprise reform, or of the hukou system, which is hindering the urbanization process. Others have pinpointed the event as a launching point for a comprehensive plan on liberalizing the renminbi. More than a few experts are skeptical that anything of much importance will happen.

A little concrete evidence The precedents for the political event are hard to ignore. In December 1978, Deng Xiaoping emerged as China’s top leader during the Third Plenum of the 11th Central Committee, after wrestling the reins of power from Mao-successor Hua Guofeng. The shakeup signified an end to troublesome Mao era politics such as continuous class struggle and colossal industrial investment. It was, in effect, the first ray of light in the opening of the country after 30 years of isolation. The Third Plenum that opened in November 1993 was comparably epic. Still reeling from a conservative backlash brought on by the Tiananmen protests in 1989, the session adopted a decision on establishing a “socialist market economy,” leading to sweeping reform of the tax system, banking sector and state-owned enterprises (SOEs). In the 35 years since the start of reform in China, leaders have passed few other economic packages matching its significance or scale. This October, analysts won’t be looking for the same signals. Li Wei, a

China economist at Standard Chartered in Shanghai, said the absence of largescale reform doesn’t indicate that China is stagnating. The nature of reform itself has evolved along with the economy, and the newest generation of policymakers is better attuned to the subtleties of what is going on around them. Leaders such as Li Keqiang are focusing on responding to daily changes in the country rather than drafting grandiose plans as their forebears did, Li Wei said in a phone interview. “It’s probably not as easy as 20 years ago, when China was largely just a centrally planned economy,” he said. “So having a plan for the next five years isn’t probable. But that doesn’t mean you can’t have some concrete evidence of Beijing’s decisiveness to reform.”

Hukous, who knows? A touchstone for reform this autumn will be the government’s attitude toward SOEs, Li Wei said. Selling off some of the strategic assets of state firms would mark a step toward reforming the inefficient companies that crowd out smaller players from the market. Allowing bankruptcies at small statemanaged firms and banks is another potential signal for reform. New York University professor and Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael Spence agreed that the major issue at hand was the role of state firms in the market. “The state balance sheet may still


be big and remain large, but the assets should be managed to complement and support the markets, via public sector investment and transparent regulation… not to restrict competition, access and cause distortions,” he told China Economic Review. Along with reform to industry and SOEs, policymakers will likely target urbanization and financial reform. Most economists agreed that these would be the economic focus of the plenum. The hukou, China’s household registration system, will no doubt be discussed at the meeting, said Zhou Hao, a Shanghai-based economist at ANZ Bank. The media has buzzed with talk on hukou reform for months and changes are expected. At present, the system stops rural residents from getting benefits such as education and health care when they move to cities. Scaling it back and making it easier for migrant workers to transition to the city is necessary if China wants to continue a relatively smooth urbanization process. However, much like other areas of reform, it’s unclear if changes to the system will be substantial. “I’m not very sure if the government will have a radical or gradual reform agenda during this meeting,” Zhao said in a phone interview.

RMB countdown Other observers will be waiting for a more finely tuned message during the plenum, namely word on the liberalization of the renminbi. In a note from Citi Research in late May, the bank’s head of Asia Pacific market analysis Huang Yiping said senior government officials and policy advisors were working on a reform plan for the convertibil-

ity of the yuan. “We would expect a draft program ... to be presented for approval to the Third Plenum of the Central Committee of the Party in the autumn. If things progress smoothly, we could see some breakthrough steps from early 2014,” the note said. Citi isn’t the only bank that expects some action on the liberalization of capital accounts to come in October. Alex Fuste Mozo, chief economist at Andorra’s Andbank, is betting on some form of reform to the capital account at the Third Plenum simply because China is running out of options for the currency. Fuste Mozo has been tracking the usage of the yuan to settle accounts in emerging markets. This year, about 17% of those transactions will be done in China’s currency. Within five years, he projects that figure could hit 40%, “a condition that would require the [yuan] to be fully liberalized,” he said in an email.

Not every plenum Those are high hopes for a meeting shrouded in such secrecy. During the past month, the outlook on the plenum has deteriorated in the eyes of some China watchers. Or per-

haps experts have simply weighed in on the rampant guesswork abound, stamping out hopes and highlighting how the party and government have taken care of business for the last two decades. “I don’t expect that the Plenum will have some massive revolutionary statement,” Kerry Brown, director of the China Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, said. “That would be alien to the very gradualist political environment that Chinese leaders operate in.” Instead, the session will largely be a venue for underlining and reinforcing some of the policies the new political lineup has already introduced, such as Xi’s crackdown on corruption, Brown said. Those hoping the plenum will galvanize piecemeal economic reforms into comprehensive policy should brace themselves for disappointment. Lu Ting, lead China economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a note that the new government will need more time to consolidate its power base before it can attempt real change. In the past the meeting may have marked some of the biggest moments in China’s recent economic history but, Lu said, “it does not mean the once-in-every-five-years third plenary party session should always be significant.”

September 2013

27


REPORT

Ground control Sales of arable land are raising all sorts of issues between farmers and local governments across China

S

elling off a small parcel of rural land doesn’t seem to augur groundbreaking reform. But in China, where farmland is stuck in limbo between collective ownership and privatization, allowing farmers to market plots in the countryside is the stuff reforms are made of. The government in Guangdong province said it would allow rural residents to sell land that is designated for housing. The city of Chongqing has reportedly done the same, even though such transactions have been off-limits since the early days of communist rule and a law written as late as 1999 confirmed such sales as illegal. Land used for residential housing accounts for a fraction of the countryside when contrasted with fields and pasture. Those cannot be sold as yet. But the funds generated from selling off small parcels will help farmers migrating from rural areas. The reform comes at an opportune moment: The central government is ramping up a blueprint for urbanization and transference of ownership of rural land is one of several puzzle pieces, along with residency reform, that the government will need to connect to ensure a stable shift of rural residents to urban centers. The “household registration system,” perhaps the most notable rural land shakeup since China opened to the world, started with just 18 households in a village in Anhui province in

28

September 2013

1978. The villagers divvied up land that had been communized 20 years earlier during the disastrous Great Leap Forward. Titles to the land were signed over to village collectives but farmers were able to till their own plots and sell the produce. The system was so successful that the central government wrote the policy into law in 1983. Unfortunately, senior officials have mostly failed to build on that foundation for reform, with changes to land law in subsequent decades slow and patchy at best. Since 2008, a number of experiments have played with the nature of rural land titles. In several places around China, the government has given farmers some degree of control over ownership. They have been allowed to collectively rent out their tiny plots to corporate farming companies and reap some share of the crop, leading to greater industrialization in farm output . Guangdong has been a vanguard

for several of the country’s most progressive experiments – many of them impromptu. In Shenzhen, which shares a border with Hong Kong, some collectives negotiate land transactions directly with land developers, as opposed to city governments. This has been a boon for farmers, who have previously witnessed higherlevel officials brashly turn over their land to developers in the hopes of filling local government coffers. Without a clear claim to land titles, country folk have negligible bargaining power and end up poorly compensated for land, which is often their only source of income. This impedes urbanization as it forces farmers into cities with little to fall back on, a process that threatens lowly living conditions in towns and cities. The announcement from Guangdong was a welcome development in the evolution of China’s land policy. But permission to sell rural land was anticipated yet excluded from public policy debate at the National People’s Congress in March, owing to pushback from conservative policymakers. Reformers in Zhongnanhai should make sure the Guangdong experiment isn’t extinguished by the same cohort. They should encourage and expand on this experiment in the way that Anhui’s experiment went national 30 years ago. History has already made a case for giving farmers more control of the land under their feet.


访谈

打造新海派建筑精品 专访著名建筑设计师余泊先生

海真如城市副中心核心启动区的

问:你眼中的“新海派”建筑风格是

CBD别墅— “星光域”于8月

怎样的?

份拉开巡展帷幕,其“新海派”建筑风格

答:我认为,海派建筑风格是殖民

令人耳目一新。近期,负责这一项目建筑

建筑风格与中国本土建筑风格碰撞的产

设计的上海致逸建筑设计有限公司总建筑

物。作为民国建筑风格的分支,在厦门、

师余泊先生接受了本刊采访。余泊拥有多

大连、烟台都有海派风格的痕迹。但是上

年日本、新加坡建筑设计工作经验,曾任

海是唯一将“海派风格”延续至今并且不

“新天地”项目南地块负责人,2011加盟

断融入新元素的地方。“新海派”建筑风

上海致逸建筑设计。

格主要体现在三个方面:其一,这一建筑 所引导的生活方式是符合当地人居住习惯 的;其二,尊重欧洲古典建筑的三段式建

问:上海致逸建筑设计是一家怎样的 企业?取名“致逸”有什么含义?

余泊

大胆改变。

答:上海致逸建筑设计有限公司是一 家为专业地产公司提供专业技术服务的建 筑设计公司。现有专业设计人员70多人,

筑制式;其三,材质和呈现形式具有新的

问:在中国进行建筑设计,国内设计 师和国外设计师相比有哪些优势?

就拿“新天地”和“星光域”来 说,“新天地”原本就有很多古典建筑

具备9个完整的设计团队,长期为诸如金

答:我认为,国内外设计师各有所

元素,只需要将新元素和旧元素结合在一

地、万科、龙湖、协信、富力、高科、华

长。国外设计师的优势在于办公楼、酒

起,就能碰撞出海派风情。而作为“新海

发、星浩等集团公司提供专业而专注的设

店、博物馆之类的公建项目,特长在于工

派”住宅建筑的“星光域”,更多的是将

计服务,在业内享有优秀而卓越的口碑。

业技术的先进性,而非住宅理念。国内设

古典元素和新兴元素彻底混合后,成为全

公司的名字来源于明清之际著名文人李渔

计师的优势在于,对于本土传统“聚合式

新的混合体。其内部架构符合中国人的居

的《闲情偶寄》,书中有“是我于花之未

住宅”的普适性居住理念的把控度更高。

住模式,外部架构则遵从西方的三段式

开,先享无穷逸致矣”的句子。“逸致”

比方会根据中国人饮食起居的习惯和实际

架构。

指的是“飘逸超群的情趣”,表述的内涵

情况,将厨卫的通风情况纳入重点考量,

是:一群热爱建筑设计、志同道合的人们

对起居、会客等空间进行精细划分,并对

相聚在这里。

户型、面宽、进深设计进行人性化安排。

问:“星光域”是怎样做到“贴合中 国人居住习惯”并体现人文性的? 答:“星光域”的建筑设计理念是 “紧密贴合中国人居住习惯”。首先要符 合本地的居住习惯:非港式,不宜密度过 高,过于集中;也非欧美,不宜做纯低密 度住宅,更倾向于群居。还有小区人车分 流:车辆都是直接进入地下车库,门口设 有消防车专用通道。我在设计住宅的时 候,首先构想的是人的“行为”,为居住 者构想合理的回家路线,通过这个场景, 完成布景,最终成为一个建筑。中国人都 希望“脚踏实地”,所以每个叠墅都有专 属的入门庭院,让住户拥有自己的院子, 提高了私密性。

紧密贴合中国人的居住习惯

September 2013

29


封面故事

企业并购潮 P31 并购新变局 P38 网络兼并风起云涌 P40 文化产业合纵连横

30

September 2013


并购新变局 已成为退出主要渠道的并购市场仍处于有待成熟的初级阶段

年上半年,中国并购市场涉及的交

新和试点运营,基金设立模式和投资模式

易金额创出国内半年度交易最高纪

五花八门,何种模式真正适合中国市场?

录。随着中国经济逐渐告别高速增长的时

“并购基金很难做,但是非常有意

代,经济增长方式转型和产业结构调整迫

义。”倪正东说道,“并购基缺少专业的

在眉睫,“并购重组”作为重要途径成为

人才,融资渠道也有限。另外就是退出渠

各行业“十二五”规划的关键词。中国企

道狭窄,商业行为也受到行政的影响。”

业的并购活动在海内外市场上日益活跃,

中信证券的分析和研究发现,并购市

交易规模已经排名世界第二,未来将会呈

场非常巨大。中信并购基金董事总经理、

现怎样的繁荣景象?在机遇与风险并存的

投决会成员徐菠说道:“据我们测算,

中国并购市场上,企业、中介、PE、监管

在‘十二五’期间仅境内并购投资的规模

机构等各方当如何顺势而为?

就会达到6.5万亿。而很多企业用的都是自

清科研究中心最新数据显示,今年上 半年中国并购市场共完成交易406起,披

有基金和少量的并购贷款,资金的解决方 案是非常有限的。”

露金额的并购案例总计383起,共涉及交

另外,并购过程中的服务也非常缺

易金额403亿美元,创中国并购市场半年

失。徐菠表示:“企业在发展过程中需要

度交易最高纪录。其中国内并购359起,

并购服务和资金支持,我相信并购基金在

产生交易金额127亿美元。

这个过程中能起到一些作用。”

清科集团董事长兼CEO倪正东表

德太资本合伙人黄晶生认为,并购

示,VC/PE行业已经到了收割期,而 IPO

作为退出的手段,基金起到了很大作用,

市场又不太灵,现在新股还没有开闸,投

实际上是盘活存量。从这个角度看,由于

资界压力很大。并购可以逐渐成为股权投

整体经济放缓,盘活存量的需求也就更加

资最重要的退出方式。作为15年的资深

重要。

从业者,他认为并购的政策越来越多,企

清科创投董事总经理袁润兵认

业家也有了变化,最近几年很多上市公司

为,PE与实体经济是高度相关的。PE投

通过并购实现了价值增长;也有很多创业

资的项目之所以需要盘活,原因是中国经

者,以前雄心勃勃想上市,而现在有好的

济增速在下降,很多行业产能过剩是主旋

价格也愿意将企业卖掉。

律,在产能过剩的情况下,金融资本还在

“并购已经成为退出的主要方

不断地对某些行业进行增量投资,那么退

式,IPO只占到18%还不到,过去IPO占

出一定会越来越艰难。而反过来,如果将

PE退出90%以上,占VC退出80%以上,

企业作为并购平台或被并购的主体,机会

现在倒过来了。这是市场的一大变化。”

就会更多。

倪正东说道。从行业看,房地产、能源、

民营私募股权投资机构力鼎资本经过

矿产并购比较多,其次是医疗健康、机

大半年筹备,正在做一支规模约20亿的并

械制造、清洁技术,还有金融领域和互

购基金。“产业资本对于并购的内生需求

联网。

在迅速成长,我们并购基金不仅是已有项 目的退出通道,还要扶持和帮助产业资本

并购基金门槛多多 国内并购基金尚处于发展初期,券商 系、实业系等都在尝试,监管层也鼓励创

完成产业并购。”力鼎投资高级合伙人、 首席投资官张学军表示。 徐菠表示:“不同的并购基金风

September 2013

31


封面故事

格是不一样的,我们并购基金目前比较

作为谈判的另一方,谈判的对象实际上是

179亿美元,虽然活跃度不及2012年同期

侧重于为客户提供资本市场的解决方案,

基金而不是企业家。“我们与VC/PE谈的

的一半,但是其交易总额在半年度的数据

这意味着会先看资金比较优良的企业。”

时候,更关注企业大股东的管理能力和实

中处于历史第二的高位;外资并购共完成

在这一过程中,需要根据不同企业做不同

力。不是简单地与VC/PE谈,而是要考察

13起,活跃度同样下滑,但半年度97亿美

的分析和判断,关键是并购者必须想明白

大股东管理企业的能力。” 徐菠表示。

元的并购总额仍高居历史首位。

从企业界转做投资者为数不少,这些

中信资本高级董事总经理王方路表

并购基金和投IPO,哪一种方式投资

人做并购投资活动会带来怎样的优势?徐

示,未来几年的新热点就是中国企业“走

的持有期更长一些?“从以往投IPO项目

菠认为,由不同背景的人员组成的团队互

出去”战略。“在走出去的过程中,市场

来判断,期限更短。很多并购,现在不是

补性会更强一些。有金融背景的人对交易

亮点就是资源类、技术类的投资以及为出

并购基金作为主体,而是实业企业作为主

各方面会理解得更加透彻一些,有产业背

口型企业开拓新的市场。”他说道。

体,这是目前的趋势。” 袁润兵表示。

景的人对于产业的未来整合会更加注重。

以后才能实施。

国内经济对于海外资源的依存度在

张学军认为两者差异巨大。“并购

并购行业在中国是新兴行业,但在发

逐渐增加,特别是石油、天然气、矿业以

基金太复杂,最主要的能力在于交易撮合

达经济体是较成熟的行业。在经济逐渐放

及其他资源产品,如木材、可耕地等。同

能力,是双向的业务。各种各样的利益诉

缓的情况下,未来中国并购业务是否会向

时,国内企业向海外出口的很多低端产品

求,买方卖方,各种交易方式,最终的目

发达经济体看齐,尚有待观察。

的吸引力,特别是价格吸引力在逐步降

标就是以合适的价格撮合一笔交易。对于 整体政策的理解,对买卖双方最本质需求 的理解,对于设计交易方案,对谈判能力

低。但对于新兴市场,中国企业在输送技

海外并购重心转移 金融危机导致国际企业估值持续走

术、建造基础设施和提供其他服务方面, 还在不断增长。

低,人民币对外升值,这些均为中国企业

中信资本很早就关注海外市场、特别

“我们与产业龙头、上市公司、被投

提供了海外并购的机会,而中国PE携手企

是新兴市场有哪些投资亮点。由于历史上

资企业进行合作,最主要是考虑3、5年的

业弄潮海外并购,PE机构应该如何持续发

中国与新兴市场国家的关系,中国企业特

事情。我们要与这些老板深入沟通,看行

挥功效?

别是财务投资类的公司在新兴市场具有更

都是非常巨大的挑战。”

业未来3、5年的发展趋势,才能制定未来

海外并购和外资并购在今年第一季

3、5年整体的并购策略和进一步的交易方

度的突出表现带来了较为优秀的半年度数

王方路认为,海外投资还有很长的路

式。”张学军说道。

据。清科研究中心最新数据显示,今年上

要走,特别要考虑到以下几个因素:首先

半年,海外并购共完成34起,并购总额达

是把中国投资人的利益和当地投资人的利

并购目标公司有VC/PE作为股东的,

多的机会。

益捆绑在一起,这样才能确保利益一致, 在当地市场得到更多协助。另外,要把投 资理念和投资的技术传授给新兴市场的职 业投资人。要充分地与当地及第三方投资 人结合,形成合力。 自2009年以来,中国企业的海外并 购迎来了火爆的几年。企业的国际化需 求、对海外资产的抄底心理、资源能源的 战略性并购以及充裕的流动性是海外并购 的四大推动要素。然而,现在的情况是: 国内的流动性有所趋紧,大宗商品的持续 弱市使资源型并购的热情下降,美欧资产 价格的回升使抄底机遇逐渐消失,目前只 有国内企业“走出去”的需求仍然较强。 “但是,仅凭企业的国际化需求难以 使中国企业的海外并购行为持续火爆,今 年中国并购市场的重心将由前两年的海外 并购向国内并购转移。”清科研究中心分 清科集团2013中国股权投资与并购年会

32

September 2013

析师朱毅捷表示。


并购退出仍存障碍 国内IPO暂时关闭,海外IPO困难重 重,于是纷纷转向并购市场。尽管市场向 好,但是从当前的并购交易来看,整体的 并购投资回报率偏低,与IPO带来的高回 报无法相提并论,并购退出尚未让机构尝 到甜头。 国内IPO已是第八次暂停,普遍感觉 IPO退出很渺茫。以前国内股权投资主要 通过IPO退出,比例高达80%~90%, 现在反过来,通过IPO退出只有百分之十 几,国外比例甚至更低。VC/PE投资需 要寻求其他的退出途径,包括并购退出途 径。上海股权托管交易中心董事兼副总经 理郭洪俊表示,股权投资得到快速发展, 从IPO退出的比例只会越来越少。 “对于IPO市场阶段性的关闭,我感 觉确实是形成了一些机会,这些机会使上 并购基金的目标是以合适的价格撮合交易

市公司突然发现自己具备了并购能力。” 君联资本董事总经理兼上海办事处主任李 家庆说道。

态来讲,是不是做好准备了?”IDG资本

中国大部分企业家把自己企业当儿

障碍。 文化因素在并购中起到很大作用,

合伙人章苏阳说道。

子养,这就给企业收购兼并造成了文化障

达泰创投创始人、管理合伙人李泉生

启明创投创始主管合伙人邝子平认为有几

碍。“第一,凭什么卖给你?跟你打了10

最近花了一些时间与投资项目CEO和董事

个原因:第一是成者为王、败者为寇的观

年为什么要卖给你?第二,一般来说卖出

长沟通并购事宜,他认为在接触并购项目

念,虽然在逐步改变,但是在挑选项目时

的人就是输,买的人是赢。从企业家的心

时,可以在一定程度上帮助对方消除一些

还是很重要的因素。“从业界来看,优酷 兼并土豆,土豆的价格是好得不得了,从 投资者或者站在投资者的角度去看创业

2009H1-2013H1 中国并购市场发展趋势 700

45,000.00 621

40,000.00 35,000.00

536

30,000.00 25,000.00

40,342.27 40 342 27

36,747.13

537 32,505.12

500

30,171.13

454 23,605.03

406

20,269.59

291

20,000.00

331

18,257.23

400 300

14,533.21

15,000.00

200

9,542.30 9 ,542.30

10,000.00

600

149

145 100

5,000.00

0

0.00 2009H1 2009H2 2010H1 2010H2 2011H1 2011H2 2012H1 2012H2 2013H1

并购总额 (US$M)

案例数

者,我觉得都是非常好的退出。但是所有 的公众媒体,甚至创业者自己的一些言 论,好像都惨得不得了。”他补充道, “公众媒体需要在这方面慢慢与时俱进, 收购兼并不是很悲摧的事情。” 中国并购市场尚处在初级阶段,对于 并购的效益还需要时间来观察。完成并购 后,上市公司短期的兼并诉求大都可以实 现。但是,企业自身的长期需求是不是能 达到则需要时间考验。事实上,并购真正 成功的概率并不高。章苏阳表示,企业并 购成功大多不超过50%,最悲观的报告认 为真正的成功率只有20%。 “现在兼并收购比以前热很多,但其 中存在文化障碍、社会障碍,还有兼并与

来源:私募通 2013.07 *注:清科研究中心对并购案例的收录不包括关联交易。

被兼并企业之间的融合,这些都需要进一 步做得更好。”邝子平说道。

September 2013

33


COVER STORY

Buying retail Chinese grocers go on a shopping spree

34

September 2013


C

hina’s 1.4 billion or so mouths to feed are a tempting proposition for international grocery retailers hungry for growth. Incomes are rising, logistics infrastructure is good and unlike places such as India, foreign brands are welcome to compete in the domestic supermarket sector. Leading Western chains have charged into the market, going head-to-head against regional rivals from South Korea, Taiwan and Japan as well as local chains. Nevertheless, many have struggled to adapt their operations to local conditions. Last week, British retail giant Tesco signalled it is considering ending its nine-year solo run in China by entering talks with a partner. Should a final agreement be reached, Tesco would fold its 131 China-based stores into the supermarket unit of China Resources Enterprises (CRE), the listed arm of statecontrolled China Resources Holdings. The announcement has thrown the massive but not well known conglomerate into the business pages of the Western press. It also casts a spotlight on how Chinese retailers are using M&A to expand their footprint in the world’s biggest grocery market.

All broken up Compared to Europe or the US, China’s supermarket industry is highly fragmented. An array of retailers of various sizes sells groceries. Some are chains, most are independent; none have managed to establish a dominant position. Sun Art, a tie up between Taiwan-based conglomerate Ruentex Group and France’s Groupe Auchan, is the biggest supermarket chain in the country but it is has a market share of only 13.6%. By contrast, Tesco, the UK’s leader, has around 30% of the market in its home country. “One of the reasons that the [grocery] market is so fragmented is because China is so damn big, Torsten

September 2013

35


COVER STORY

Stocker, a partner at consultancy AT Kearney, told China Economic Review. “Historically, you had a lot of retailers that existed at the very local level or provincial level and everybody [big and small supermarket chains] is still expanding.” Foreign groups have a major presence in big cities in eastern and central China, operating mostly in the hypermarket segment. Wal-Mart has the biggest branded presence of the multinationals, with more than 380 stores; Carrefour has over 218 outlets. The leading Chinese supermarket chains operate across multiple formats, from bigger stores to mid-sized supermarkets and smaller units, giving them a much deeper presence. Lianhua Supermarket Holdings, the biggest gro-

36

September 2013

cery chain on the mainland, has more than 5,150 stores. CRE’s CR Vanguard supermarket unit has almost 3,000.

On a mission No retailer wants to fall behind in a grocery market that is projected by consumer research firm IGD to grow in value from US$1 trillion in early 2013 to US$1.5 trillion by 2016. CR Vanguard has been expanding aggressively. Between 2001 and the end of 2010 it closed six acquisitions. In 2011, the company snapped up Jiangxi Hongkelong. Complementing its acquisition-led expansion, the company is building up high-end brands BLT and Ole that sell imported foods to chase higher margins. “You can see that they always put market share as the top priority,”

when considering an M&A deal such as the one with Tesco, a Hong Kongbased retail analyst, who declined to be named, told China Economic Review. CR Vanguard is now adjusting to the slowing Chinese economy. Up until the end of last year the company had been expanding in China through targeted store openings, in line with the practice of many retailers, said Jon Copestake, chief retail analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit in London. “This tie-in with Tesco may reflect a more considered approach, using the Tesco store network as a means of expanding penetration without incurring significant risks or costs.” The Hong Kong-based analyst agreed, noting that in 2013 CR Vanguard has eased the opening of new


mass market and high end stores from the pace recorded in the previous couple of years.

Acquiring growth Buying to expand market share becomes more attractive in a downturn. “The sector is likely to see consolidation, partly as retailers begin to look for opportunities in smaller chains to extend presence, rather than through costly organic store openings,” said Copestake. Lower-tier cities where incomes are rising offer retailers the chance to move away from the cutthroat competition in big cities that are increasingly saturated, market research firm Euro-

monitor noted in a January report. This will favor enterprises such as CR Vanguard that have adopted a multi-format approach to provide retail options tailored to regional market conditions. “If you look at their track record, they are interested in doing M&A in different sectors,” said the Hong Kong-based analyst. CR Vanguard’s expansion strategy is paying off. The firm overtook Wal-Mart as the second-largest supermarket chain in China by share of the urban market in the quarter ending June 14, according to consumer research group Kantar Worldpanel. Other acquisitive Chinese retailers include Balian Group, which is also seeking expansion through M&A.

Lianhua Supermarket has a strong track record in buying out other chains, for example the notable purchase of Hualian Supermarket in 2008 that added almost 1,400 stores. More partnerships such as the one being considered by Tesco is also potentially on the cards as it provides good access for foreign and local brands, according to Andrew Walters, chairman of consultancy China Retail Group. One target could be Carrefour and its 206 China stores. The retailer has been linked with a disposal or merger of its China assets for a while, something the company strenuously denies. Should the French giant decide to hook up with a local, there would be a queue of suitors.

September 2013

37


封面故事

网络兼并风起云涌 探索互联网并购交易热的成因和未来走势 文 | 晗军

去年优酷与土豆宣布合并后,互联

敛期,到了格局和势力范围划分的时候。

投91无线以前,并购的金额都在1亿美元

网行业掀起轰轰烈烈的并购潮。今

这是从宏观战略的态势来看。从战术层面

以下。收购91无线后,被市场普遍认为可

年上半年,互联网并购方兴未艾,如百度

看,这一现象也已出现,很多互联网公

以夺回移动互联网的入口。阿里收购了新

旗下爱奇艺收购PPS、阿里巴巴入股新浪

司,包括百度,拥有大量现金,投资并购

浪微博,腾讯有微信,360的挑战也比较

微博等。一方面,互联网行业的大额并购

成为可能。经过十多年积累,各大互联网

厉害,百度可谓“前有狼后有虎”。“这

较往常更多,如阿里巴巴5.86亿美元并购

公司蕴藏了丰富的投资并购的能量。

是夺回失地的行为,不知道这个投资是不 是贵了?我们不清楚,但是市场还是比较

新浪微博,浙报传媒34.9亿人民币收购边

而移动互联网这两年发展非常快。汤

锋网络和浩方,百度3.7亿美元并购PPS

和松认为,移动互联网是在PC互联网基础

等;另一方面,近期互联网巨头阿里巴巴

上发展起来的,是PC互联网服务的迁移和

百度看重的目标企业是什么?看重

和百度频频出手,移动互联网和网络视频

增量。不是技术和产品的迁移,而是基本

团队还是看重用户本身?汤和松表示,百

行业备受关注,引发业界的猜想和议论。

服务的迁移,这就导致移动领域的投资并

度的战略投资和并购紧紧围绕着“战略”

互联网行业并购交易热的背后究竟隐藏着

购也让人目不暇接。

两字,就是要在战略上与百度有协同意

什么?TMT 行业并购风起云涌,未来并购

认可。”陈杭说道。

汤和松透露:“我们并购的几个项

义,“战略”是百度投资并购的核心。他

目,都是我的团队独立操作完成的,没

透露,百度并购战略分三个方面:第一是

在今年早些时候,在一次小范围活

有依赖华尔街的中介服务机构。中国互

对于核心业务的加强,百度的核心业务是

动中,百度企业发展部总经理汤和松讲

联网并购通过这些年积累了操作性和可

搜索,必须是围绕搜索核心业务的技术型

到,2013、2014年将会是互联网领域投

行性。”

平台、产品型项目和优秀团队等。第二是

会呈现怎样的特点?

生态系统的建立,百度的生态系统是网

资并购集中爆发期。原因有两点:其一是 由PC互联网的发展阶段决定的,其二是移

众里寻他千百度

站、网民,有利于促进生态系统繁荣和共

动互联网浪潮决定的。他认为,中国PC

中国文化产业投资基金董事总经理陈

存共赢,就是要推动的。第三是外来布

互联网行业通过十几年发展,已经到了收

杭认为,百度投资向来比较谨慎,在今年

局,对于有可能成为核心业务的项目,就 会考虑投资并购。 具体实施分两个层面,即战术层面和 战略层面。首先要精准地把握战略动态, 战略上出现错误,通过战术是难以挽回 的。第二是战术层面,其实也是战略需求 折射在战术上的体现,比较主要的还是团 队。汤和松认为:“战略上的需求,看重 的是技术,技术对我们非常重要。而战术 问题是战略的折射,团队和市场地位等都 很重要。”

阿里巴巴青睐谁 最近有一个说法— 你有没有“被 阿里”?这个“被阿里”也许是指企业在 与阿里巴巴洽谈投资并购。阿里巴巴集团 副总裁、阿里资本董事总经理张鸿平说 “被阿里”是指企业在与阿里巴巴洽谈投资并购事宜

38

September 2013

道:“我听到‘被阿里’这个词后一喜一


忧,喜的是,阿里资本对于业界可能还有 一点影响力,让大家能感觉到我们的存 在。我还有一些担忧,‘被阿里’后面的 含义是什么?正面还是负面?是强势收购 还是生态圈的概念?” 他解释道:“其实我们在众多的投 资里是参与少数股权,因为阿里是从打造 生态圈做平台起家的,我们非常强调生态 圈里的布局和共赢的观念。”阿里巴巴投 的陌陌、美团、丁丁、在路上等公司,都 是占少数股权的投资,这些企业都非常优 秀,也愿意和阿里建立密切关系,在生态 圈里共同发展和繁荣。 张鸿平认为,移动互联网仍然是未 来需要关注的热点。阿里巴巴也在很多新 领域里不断学习,从淘宝天猫开始,很多 是基于物流或交易的平台。而随着经济体 的不断成长,非物质的交易在国民经济所 占的比例会越来越大。“这不是说我们不 在物质方面做更多的投入,比如在物流方 面,我们还会进行一些布局、投资、合

百度以巨资收购91无线

作。但同时也要看到一些其他的新领域, 如本地生活服务类和文化产业,阿里也会

丁丁、美团等。“这些企业实际上是当未

要很多人,一般都是2、3个人组织资源

顺应经济发展形势,在新领域进行更多的

来格局发生变化,或者从传统PC更多转向

来完成。还有一些是企业家相互之间的推

投入和投资。”他说道。

无线的时候,会与我们产生很多的协同价

荐,也是很有效的渠道。

阿里巴巴选择目标企业时,希望这 些目标企业具备怎样的特质?张鸿平表

值。这些对未来的投资也是我们要寻找的 目标。”张鸿平解释道。

百度在过去的很多交易中也没有让投 行参与。汤和松表示成功的渠道有两类,

示:“我们要寻找的对象,实际上有两个

陈杭认为,阿里巴巴的并购比较讲究

一类是业务部门推荐,八字有了半撇;第

方面,这也与投资策略相关。实际上是投

布局,一系列并购围绕着店商展开,而且

二类是目标公司主动找上百度,对方已经

资未来而不是现在,一定不是我们现有或

很少投早期项目,都是投向成熟期。其并

感觉到可与百度做点什么。他认为,投资

现在非常强的,而是与我们有互补性,或

购多出于战略考虑,因此能够成为市值最

并购成功与否主要由两个因素决定:第一

者是未来我们需要在这一方面进行布局和

大的互联网公司。

是战略方向对不对,方向判断是否正确; 第二是战术落地到不到位,而核心是并购

成长的。” 他举了一个例子。阿里巴巴投过两家

一切皆有可能

后的整合问题。

企业,都是十倍、百倍成长的优秀企业,

通过怎样的渠道去发现被并购对象?

张鸿平的忠告是:“经营企业一定

是将传统行业的化妆品、电器等拿到互联

由自己团队去开发还是业内投行顾问引

要看清大局,做出特色,将来不管是独立

网上卖,帮助传统企业经营,这些企业对

荐?哪种效果最明显?

发展还是选择与其他公司合作,都会比较

阿里巴巴是有意义的。阿里巴巴本身是做

其实,阿里投资高德、新浪微博并不

顺利。很多事情不是一个人、一家公司或

平台,给电商提供服务,这些企业与阿里

需要其他人介绍,曹国伟和马云本身就很

者一个团队所能做的,必须形成一个生态

巴巴一起将管道铺好,与传统企业连接。

熟,高德CFO与张鸿平在美国就是认识十

圈,互相帮助才能把事情做起来。”

这类投资对于阿里巴巴的业务有很大意

几年的朋友。

未来互联网还会发生更大的并购么?

“只要双方能谈到共同利益的最大

张鸿平认为,无线互联网未来两年的并购

无线互联网很热,阿里也投了一些在

化,就不需要通过其他方式来做渠道,也

投资一定会持续发生,这是由市场和企业

无线方面有独特优势,有用户和行业地位

不需要投行的参与。”张鸿平相信可以依

的关系来决定的。汤和松则表示“不知道

的公司,如高德地图、新浪微博、陌陌、

靠自己的团队来完成,核心项目团队不需

答案,但一切皆有可能”。

义,也具有很高的投资价值。

September 2013

39


封面故事

文化产业合纵连横 文化产业的并购整合还存在着诸多难题和障碍 文 | 晗军

年A股市场文化产业板块特别火。

为,第一个原因是海内外IPO受阻;第二

创业板市值排行榜前12家公司中有

个原因是企业内生性遭遇瓶颈,单独发展

从国际趋势来看,全球四大传播集

6家是文化传媒。而文化产业出现了一些

已达极限;第三是出于其他原因或者有特

团进行了并购。如出版集团培生也做了并

大的并购,如百度19亿美元收购香港上市

殊想法;最后一个就是市场特别景气,原

购,它是“有所为有所不为”,把电视公

公司网龙旗下的91无线;传统地产公司万

本认为企业卖不了这么多钱,如91无线的

司的股权基本都卖了。很多专业出版机构

达收购美国第二大电影院线AMC,花费了

股东没有想到会是19亿美元,上市可能还

已经改变出版模式,不仅仅是卖书,更多

160亿美元,这在国内外上市和没有上市

没有这么高的估值,所以就卖了。因为市

是卖服务。“培生把电视业务卖了,更专

的企业并购中都是非常惊人的。

场特别景气,因此百度与腾讯和360在移

注于教育,这是并购很核心的战略考虑,

动互联网入口展开竞争。这轮市场井喷因

为什么有人卖和买?因为各自的战略不

此获得了较好的估值。

同。”陈杭说道。

技术的进步与生活习惯的变化,不断 改变着传媒业的结构,从传统的纸媒、电 视媒体到新兴的网络、手机等数字媒体,

买方的原因就更多。比如有线电视

全球广告业的并购也在加剧。陈杭探

媒体的触手逐步遍布生活的每一个角落。

行业跨区整合;传统媒体进军游戏行业,

讨了并购的动因:规模化的要求、品牌化

在此情况下跨媒介、跨平台的传播就成为

如浙报集团和博瑞,毫无疑问就是转型;

与市场扩张的要求、全产业链的需求以及

了大势所趋,而正如时代华纳、新闻集团

还有主营领域的并购成长,如蓝色光标在

新技术的需求。

等一样,中国市场也将出现综合性的传媒

公关领域这一主营领域持续并购。而主营

巨头,这必然伴随着行业整合的加剧和大

领域的并购是国际趋势。另外就是关联领

量并购的发生。

域的提前布局,如阿里巴巴今年的几个大

同为文化产业的成员,蓝标是并购大

文化企业的投资并购为什么会发生?

并购,新浪微博、高德也是关联领域的布

王,而乐视网的并购几乎为零。乐视网副

中国文化产业投资基金董事总经理陈杭认

局。陈杭认为,高估值收购低估值,行业

总裁张特认为,厘清文化创意产业的特征

很多专业出版机构也在改变出版模式

40

集中度通过并购得以提升。

September 2013

障碍与阻力


很重要,因为不同的特征就决定了并购之 路会不同,并购的方式方法也会有异。 文化产业受到政策上的管制,由于 准入限制程度不一样,产业格局、整合过 程以及并购过程中的路径或面临的障碍就 不同。比如管制最严的是新闻出版,并购 和整合过程当中就受到很多政策的监管, 如不允许外资进入、民营介入,这时并购 就会遇到障碍。如电影或电视剧的发行不 允许外资进入,也同样面临着阻碍。中间 环节的互联网公司,虽然是民营占主导的 领域,同样受到很多限制,如不允许外资 在资本运作过程中采取红筹的结构,在并 购过程中遇到跨境的问题等。而外层的行 业如文化用品、设备、衍生品等阻碍就比

并购完成后做好人的融合和搭配是一大挑战

较少。 乐视网目前的产业结构,形成平台

论是横向整合、跨界整合,这些政策性的

层有长时间的接触。第二是尽量用股票来

技术层+内容+应用+终端这一视频产业特

障碍,可能是特定的外部环境决定的,在

做支付,现金只是辅助,往下可以资源共

殊的发展格局。按照自身的业务结构对应

操作时会遇到阻力。”

享,互相促进整体发展。第三是企业被并 购进来后,会考虑相应的股权激励;当然

到产业上,实际上也可以分为四个基础链 条。最底层就是基础设施,在大文化产业

战略与整合

里,电信应用商的分发系统网络就是基础

在文化产业的并购整合中,应如何

设施。很多文化创意产业里的制作工具,

确定并购策略?具体操作中会考虑哪些因

如做动画的特殊技术工具,都是基础设

素?如何规避风险?

也有一部分用现金收购,现金收购通常要 求有一定的业绩承诺。 陈杭认为,企业并购存在三个核心问 题,即战略问题、战术问题和整合问题。

施,这是文化产业的底层。上层是内容生

蓝色光标CFO张向济表示,蓝标在资

而整合是并购的永恒话题。为什么不成

产环节,影视剧公司、动漫制作公司等内

本市场上有不错的沟通,增长主要分成内

功?因为基因不契合,团队不协调,并购

容生产商。再往下是把内容分发给用户或

生和外延,在内生增长上,上市以来公司

中没有发现的风险慢慢暴露出来,因此整

下游的消费者,属于传播领域,文化产业

始终保持50%~70%的年增长,相信在未

合出问题。

叫发行,如电影发行公司,乐视网以前就

来3~5年内生可以保持20%~30%,外延

一直在做线上的视频发行业务,这也是文

上每年还可以有20%~30%的增长。

蓝色光标收购了十几家公司,这些公 司文化、基因、性格不一样,怎么变成一

化产业的重要一环。再往下走,贴近用户

“我们在并购时寻求两个东西:一

家人?张向济表示:“我们跟WPP这些公

的终端,如手机、电视,这些领域创造的

个是寻求这家被并购公司的核心能力,第

司还是采取合而不整,我们把公司吸引进

收益或产业规模相当惊人。

二是要要寻求被并购公司的客户资源。我

来,保留公司独立团队和核心业务,这些

“产业链的划分,实际上给我们指明

们相信当公司的资源和规模大到一定程度

都不变,集团只是在财务、法律、IT、人

了未来作为互联网参与者的乐视网从哪个

时,公司的核心能力和客户资源是可以发

事上给予充分的支持,把一些后台工作整

层次入手做并购整合。”张杭认为,大文

生乘法关系。”张向济表示,“另外一

合到集团里面。我们收购的公司有的规模

化产业里最核心的还是内容。

个纬度既需要向全球化走,也需要数字

并不是很大,管理水平并不是很高,在保

化。数字化领域是公司长期发展的核心

留子公司充分独立性的基础上,我们再帮

战略。”

助他们提高管理能力。”

文化产业进行并购的最大障碍就是政 策管制相对比较多,一些特殊领域无法利 用外资的力量帮助整合。张特说道:“我

对于如何避免商业和道德风险,张

“文化产业的整合在形式上是‘资

们想利用一些外资进行退市、私有化再收

向济谈了三个方面。首先是并购方的系统

合’,实际上还是融合。如何做好人的融

购回来,这些动作在特定的管制环境下很

性风险,在选企业的时候肯定要看人,投

合和搭配,这对我们是比较大的挑战。”

难实现。出版行业也面临同样的问题,无

资说到底就是信任,并购前会与对方管理

张特表示。

September 2013

41


REPORT

Atomic ambitions China must play by the nuclear rulebook to win overseas

S

pring is a time of renewal, injecting life into things that have fallen dormant. For China, the month of May was supposed to be the moment its nuclear industry sprang back to life after two years of hiding from the cloud cast by the Fukushima disaster. A Chinese company was poised to win a major nuclear power project in Turkey, heralding the nation’s arrival as an exporter of advanced technology and its progression up the next step of the industrial value chain. In the end it turned out that the forecasts had been completely wrong. As if wishing ink on an agreement, the state-run China Daily was confident that China General Nuclear Power Group (CGNPG) was close to sealing

42

September 2013

the US$22 billion (RMB 135 billion) deal in early May – only for it to be awarded to a Japanese-led consortium. For more than a decade, stateowned nuclear power enterprises have been developing their skills in this field. Beijing is eager to develop world leaders in advanced technologies and nuclear is a prized target. In terms of size of the nuclear market, China is already number one. But leading the pack in nuclear technology won’t come as easily. Its companies have yet to master the delicate processes involved in competing for global nuclear projects. And as is the case with China’s overall push up the value chain, its old strategy focused on cost and near limitless investment will no longer suffice.

Safety first China has stormed back into nuclear development since the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 put nuclear plans on hold around the globe. Citizens took to the streets of cities worldwide to protest the dangers of atomic energy while governments started considering scrapping nuclear power. Officials in Beijing demanded an immediate halt to new plant constructions and dispatched teams of inspectors to scrutinize safety measures over a nine-month period. In May 2012, the State Council indicated the first signs that nuclear power projects would resume when it approved a safety plan for the 20112015 period. A report released in October by the Ministry of Environmental


Protection describing China’s plan to deploy US$12.75 billion to upgrade the security of its nuclear facilities and radioactive contamination control to international standards confirmed the direction of domestic nuclear development. Then, in July, the State Council unveiled a plan to tackle nuclear emergencies, completing the strengthening of the country’s new safety regime. China is leading the way globally in putting into commercial operation third generation reactors – those that meet the most stringent safety standards yet. “The focus on safety may slow China’s ambitious domestic capacity addition plans in the near term, but Chinese nuclear power companies are likely to be anxious to establish domestic track records for their indigenously developed Generation III reactor technologies as they seek to become competitive in the global export market,” Olivia Boyd, a Beijing-based energy analyst with research firm IHS Global Insight, wrote at the beginning of July.

er in thermal power after 20 years by building a huge number of its own coal-fired plants, it can also do so with the nuclear industry, said Lin Boqiang, an energy advisor to China’s National Development and Reform Commission and director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University. For now, Chinese enterprises still rely on foreign suppliers such as France’s Areva and Westinghouse of the US to provide much of the technical expertise still lacking domestically. In the past eight years both have signed agreements with different local partners to provide everything from manufacturing and design support to management expertise. Those deals have included controversial technology transfers. In the case of Westinghouse, the Toshiba-owned company will build four of its third generation AP1000

reactors with State Nuclear Power Technology Corporation (SNPTC) and then hand over rights to future reactors based on the design that have been modified by the Chinese side. SNPTC is charged by the State Council to acquire third generation nuclear power technologies from other countries and transfer them to China. Through their various collaborations with international firms as well as internal research, SNPTC and CGNPG have gained experience in plant and reactor construction, and component manufacturing. However, they remain dependent on their foreign partners in areas such as special equipment manufacturing and plant monitoring systems. Bridging this gap is not only a long process in terms of technical capabilities: It also requires a rethink of Chinese enterprises’ capacity for innovation and internal culture. “It’s not about investment; you

Market leader In just over two decades China has gone from having no working nuclear power plants to becoming the biggest hope for the global industry. The country is the largest nuclear power market in the world by reactors under construction, with 28 at the latest count or 40% of the global total, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. This formidable scale means that it will eventually acquire expertise across the entire nuclear supply chain, from manufacturing components to installing reactors. Just as China became a world lead-

September 2013

43


REPORT

can get the best machines, money, best personnel, but this doesn’t help to make it better,” Wenyin Zhang, a Shanghai-based manager of the nuclear business unit at Bureau Veritas, a testing, inspection and certification services consultancy, told China Economic Review. One approach might be to look at how Russian companies have emerged as leading suppliers of nuclear equipment and services to countries that China itself might consider potential clients. State-controlled Rosatom has progressed to become a dynamic nuclear enterprise that is open to investment and recruits foreign staff, said Shengke Zhi, a UK-based senior nuclear engineer with nuclear technical services firm AMEC.

Stepping out Chinese engineering giants are building roads, railways and dams across much

44

September 2013

of Southeast Asia and Africa thanks to Beijing’s political and financial clout with developing nations. Meanwhile, their nuclear counterparts are struggling to win business anywhere. Competing on cost is the traditional competitive advantage of China’s enterprises abroad. But government officials and the general public are more concerned with the safety and quality of nuclear construction, noted Zhang. Aware of the need to prove that they can deliver lower-cost and safe nuclear projects, senior nuclear company executives are pondering how to do so. They could start by allowing thirdparty nations to review Chinese reactors, something companies have been reluctant to agree to until now, Arnaud Lefevre-Baril, managing director of Dynabond Powertech, told China Economic Review. Enterprises from China should also

pay closer attention to emerging trends in the nuclear industry and understand how successful bids are put together. Lefevre-Baril noted that recent projects in Europe and Turkey were won by consortiums – a grouping of companies that each offer specialised services such as construction or plant management. Experts cited a variety of reason as to why CGNPG failed in Turkey. Clearly the company, like other Chinese nuclear enterprises, needs to better consider how to put together a convincing bid package. This means reassuring foreign governments that domestic technology is safe as well as cheap, not relying on diplomatic channels for business and accepting partnerships with foreign firms on international projects. With this in mind, they should be able to avoid the same embarrassing failure when bidding on overseas projects in the future.


A brighter future The sun shines again on China's solar industry

J

A Solar, a major Chinese manufacturer of high-performance solar power products, revealed it had secured a US$89.84 million (RMB250 million) credit facility from stateowned lender Bank of Communications under a central government program to support solar enterprises. Just a couple of years ago this type of financial support would have been rolled out across the sector. Other market players, regardless of their performance, would have expected similar treatment. This time around, the industry as a whole won’t be so lucky. Beijing’s plan specifically excludes low-end firms that piled into solar when the industry was booming and failed to invest in either a brand or technological expertise. These firms will now be left to die. This approach marks a departure from previous industry bailouts in which credit, land and other favorable policies were directed at sustaining all players in order to inflate economic numbers and preserve jobs. As the new national leadership under President Xi Jinping continues to make noises about industrial rebalancing to secure longterm growth, a new dawn is approaching the domestic solar industry. To be sure, broader measures are also being enacted and the restructuring won’t be instant. The decision to raise the installed solar power capacity target for the 2011-2015 period to 41 gigawatts (GW) from 35 GW as set in

July 2012 will benefit most solar panel makers by running down their existing stock. Nevertheless Beijing appears serious about weeding out lagging companies with no viable future. A new testing and certification regime is being created to identify solar manufacturers that do not deserve state support, Edwin Lee, a Beijing-based lawyer with Chadbourne & Park, said in a July report. Introducing consolidation and a dose of market reality to an industry the government hopes China will become a world leader in has been discussed by policymakers for some time. Late last year Li Junfeng, a director general for energy and climate policy at the National Development and Reform Commission, came out publicly to say that the majority of solar companies must die to let a minority survive. Another new reality facing makers of panels and other components in the solar supply chain is the changing relationship with their largest international markets. In late July the European Union, in an embarrassing climbdown , decided to hold back from slapping dumping duties on Chinese solar product exports to the 27 member-nation bloc. This was hailed as a major victory for China as Europe is the largest market for its solar products. Manufacturers were already suffering after the United States imposed tariffs of up to 15.97% on Chinese solar cell exports last October.

Still, the EU decision has limited positive upside. Brussels and Beijing agreed on a minimum price of US$0.74 for China-made solar panels, meaning that the price advantage between Chinese and European manufacturers’ selling prices will narrow substantially, Olivia Boyd, a Beijing-based energy analyst with IHS Global Insights, said in a July 29 note. Tougher trade with customers who once placed huge orders for their wares will force Chinese companies to focus more on emerging growth markets in South America, Africa and Asia. According to IHS Energy, Japan last year surpassed Germany to become the world’s biggest solar market by value at around US$20 billion as it looks to diversify away from nuclear power. Nevertheless growth in emerging solar markets remains too small to offset the decline in the US and Europe – a trend that pushed Chinese producers into this problem in the first place. At home, reluctance from power producers to touch solar because of still high production costs will slow the pace of new domestic solar installations. Capping this all off is the fact that China produces more solar panels than the world can consume. No amount of government spending or diplomatic jousting can gloss over this. As a new dawn breaks over the Chinese solar industry, many companies will find themselves out of the game, while the fortunate few get shunted onto the track for a healthy recovery.

September 2013

45


话题

楼市何去何从 建立房地产调控长效机制已迫在眉睫 文 | 晗军

地产巨商任志强因多次成功预测房

7.94%。在房价上涨城市个数减少的同

发展”。诺亚财富研究员潘媛在7月房地产

价要上涨而被称为“任赢赢”,去

时,全国住宅价格的上涨主要受到一线城

月报中如此写道:“预计是为房地产行业

年他就曾警告今年3月房价要“大涨”。与

市价格增幅坚挺的拉动。

地位和市场化的长期政策导向定调,信号

以往一样,他的预言八九不离十。 国家统计局6月份70个大中城市房价

对于房价的持续上涨,限购、限贷等

意义重大。”

行政化楼市调控的作用已经越来越不明显。

潘媛认为,将“房地产市场平稳健

数据显示,虽然房价同比下降的城市仍在

7月底召开的中央政治局会议指

康发展”置于“推动居民消费升级,保持

增加,但是从更能反映房价走势的环比数

出,“积极稳妥推进以人为核心的新型城

合理投资增长”的总体基调下,意味房地

据来看,6月份房价环比上涨的城市数量显

镇化,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展”,

产行业在拉动消费和投资中仍占据重要一

著增加,房价上涨城市数量9个月以来首次

背景是宏观经济低位徘徊与房地产市场分

席,支柱产品的本质尚未改变,为完成稳

超过房价下跌城市数量。而7月份京、沪、

化严重,如一二线城市供需矛盾突出,价

增长,支持地产行业发展在经济快速下行

广、深一线城市同比涨幅强劲,全国房价

格快速上涨;三四线城市去库存危机等。

阶段是政策必然选择。预测下半年政策加

同比平均指数再创新高。

显然,房地产政策层面的思路正在发

码的可能性微弱,市场担忧情绪解脱。调

根据WIND和诺亚研究的统计数

生变化。对房地产市场的正式表态中,没

控权由中央下放至地方,“调控房价涨

据,7月百城价格10347元/平方米,与

有出现“房地产调控”、“不动摇”等过

幅”成为过渡期内的阶段性目标。也不排

一季度比,虽然涨幅渐缓,但同比仍达

去常用的词眼,而只提及“促进平稳健康

除个别城市楼市失控加压调控的可能。 在宏观经济下行压力加大的背景下, 仍需要房地产起到拉动作用。国家统计局 数据显示,今年上半年全国房地产开发投 资36.8万亿元,同比增长20.3%,增速快 于全社会固定资产投资0.2个百分点。 会计师事务所及咨询机构德勤发布的 报告称,在当前经济复苏时期,房地产市 场仍是经济增长引擎。关键是保持适当平 衡,如果价格大幅上涨,不排除出台更严 格的措施。 分析人士认为,在今年秋季的三中 全会召开前,楼市调控政策基调将以稳为 主。会后则可能会实质性地推进“长效机 制建设”,包括个人住房信息系统建设、 全国房屋普查体系等。 诺亚研究7月的房地产月报指出:长 期来看,房地产行业发展的愿景是未来更 加关注土地利用效率、人口与产业化对城 镇化的作用,以及逐渐降低行政手段,回 归市场力量;长效机制建立尚处于起步, 目前正处于思维转变期,房产税扩围、不 动产统一登记制度、城镇化规划等是接下

近期大中城市房价显著上涨

46

September 2013

来极有可能正式出台的政策。


资产证券化蓝海 金融脱媒大趋势下将要催生万亿级的直接融资市场

新,是全球金融市场的永久的动力 之一。只有创新,才能带我们走进

前所未见之地。 也只有创新,才可以让这个世界永远 保持着生机勃勃的生命力。 瞬息万变的市场上,思维定势、墨 守成规,已经成为致命因素—旧世界的庞 然大物悄然消失,而美好的新世界,转 眼就已出现在你的视野里。TELSA电动 车、GOOGLE眼镜、互联网金融,大数 据时代,无一不颠覆了“旧世界”里的既 有观念。 现在,我们已经“预见”了一个更为 广阔的蓝海市场,正出现在中国金融行业 的地平线上。这就是资产证券化业务试点 开放以后,“金融脱媒”大趋势下将要催

小贷市场的证券化潜力无穷

生的新蓝海—资产证券化催生的直接融 资市场。

进行融资。也就是所谓的金融脱媒。

阿里小贷最近炙手可热。其实,阿里

最近,关于资产证券化业务,监管

在全球金融脱媒,美国和中国在经济

小贷仅仅是这个市场里一个崛起的玩家而

层的表态越来越清晰:7月19日,证监会

体量和金融体系的发达程度越来越接近的

已。据不完全统计, 主要针对小微企业的

主席肖钢首度调研银河证券,表态推动

大趋势下,我们认为,直接融资也会成为

小贷行业,全国贷款余额已经达到6000亿

资产证券化。7月26日下午,证监会再度

中国资本市场的必然。

人民币,保守估计,如果仅按10%的小额

表态,力挺证券公司开展资产证券化业

未来也许有超过50%的资金脱离银

贷款进行证券化,就已经将是一个600亿

务—“下一步,证监会将大力推动证券

行,与渴求资金的实体企业,实现直接的

人民币的市场机会。除了小贷市场之外,

公司开展资产证券化业务,提升证券公司

对接。按最新公布的数据计算,2013年

更为深广的市场还包括基础设施贷款证券

利用资产证券化手段盘活存量资产,服务

6月底全国人民币存款余额达100.91万亿

化,住房贷款、汽车消费贷款、金融租

实体经济的能力,支持小微企业发展,服

元,那么就意味着中国的直接融资市场将

赁、信用卡消费等信贷支持的资产证券化

务产业结构升级转型。”证监会新闻发言

会有50万亿人民币之巨。

(ABS)。这个金融子市场的体量,估计

人这样说。

同时,在中国的债券市场和高收益垃

会接近万亿级人民币。

在中国的传统金融环境下,超过80%

圾债市场尚未发展成熟的时候,信托和资

在互联网金融时代,一切的行动,

的资金都通过银行存款、贷款这种间接融

管计划事实上已经成为直接融资市场上的

都以纳秒计算,在指数级上生长。阿里巴

资方式进行。作为庞大的金融机构,在互

两大主力产品—信托业余额已经超过10

巴的余额宝在短短一个月内就达到百亿规

联网时代,银行的运营无疑是“缓慢”

万亿人民币,而资管通道已经达到2.5万亿

模,就是一个例证。

的,既无法满足存款人对资金收益的高追

人民币资产规模。

求,也无法满足借款人对资金的效率的要 求。 而美国的情况正好相反,70%的企业 通过直接在资本市场上融资或者发行债券

“今后并不是所有的金融牌照都像从

如果让我们猜一下下一个金融行业

前那样值钱,真正的价值在于谁掌 握大量

的“杀手级产品”的话,那么资产证券化

的客户资源,谁有持续的服务能力,谁的

极有可能会成为居于直接融资和间接融资

客户黏性更高。” 中国金融投资管理有限

市场上的一个“杀手级产品”。

公司CEO 罗锐曾经这样指出。

September 2013

47


Q&A

The future of Chinese cities A renowned architect on the struggles of building in China

T

he Hutong Bubble project designed by Ma Yansong’s firm MAD Architects.So much of China – its economy, its hopes, its struggles, its future – is represented in the country’s cities. They are the centers of commerce and magnets that pull in rural workers. Rapid urbanization has proven a major source of economic growth, and China’s cities will only swell further under a forthcoming urbanization plan that seeks to squeeze more out of this boom. The buildings springing up during this rapid expansion of cities range from the bizarre imaginings of the future to grim utilitarian structures purely focused on their immediate economic role. In many ways, Chinese cities and the buildings that populate them reflect the social and cultural issues of the day, said Ma Yansong,

48

September 2013

internationally renowned architect and the founder of Beijing-based firm MAD Architects . That doesn’t mean that many of these new buildings were constructed with people in mind, said Ma, best known for his Absolute World Tower in Toronto. In a conversation with China Economic Review, Ma discussed why he continues to practice in China, the state of mainland architecture and why he goes out of his way to befriend building contractors.

You went to Beijing Institute of Civil Engineering and Architecture and after that you went to Yale University on a scholarship. In general, you have a pretty stellar academic background, so you could be an architect anywhere. Why do you choose to

continue to work in China? I am still working in many other places. Not building a lot in Beijing actually. I am building in a lot of other cities, also in America and Europe. The reason I came back was I see a lot of challenges, urban challenges. I think the problems are what attracted me.

What are some of those challenges that you are most focused on? I believe being an architect in China, I can use architecture as a tool to respond to social issues and cultural issues. China needs a new idea for its cities and architecture. [China needs] to carry the traditional value of how people live, how people see themselves and also to develop a new idea for the future. We know that this urbanization thing is huge in China. It would be a pity if after all this there was nothing new.


I am curious how you see design evolving in China. For example, a lot of buildings from the 1990s are pretty weird looking. Perhaps they looked really modern at the time, but today they look a bit tacky. Why do you think so many buildings like that were built and has that design aesthetic changed in recent years? In the past 30 years, architecture has somehow shown how people imagine modern life. I think in the beginning, even before this 30 years, there are many great buildings in Beijing. Half of them look like a mixture of modern buildings and traditional Chinese buildings. The other half look like Russian style, a mixture of modern European traditions. This shows in that period how people thought; that architecture represented power. In later times, when China opened its doors, there were more market-driven buildings. So they look like commercial goods, they look like products in the shopping mall. They look different because they have become the symbols of capital. . Those buildings they didn’t really build for people. They didn’t really choose how people were involved in those buildings, and they were very much focused on the look. On the architecture quality, not building quality, I would say they are very similar, very poor quality … Right now is a turning point because people are talking about green buildings, sustainable buildings and public buildings as open spaces.

What do you think is the most attractive city in China? Are there any cities that could be

considered a model for the rest of the country? No, I think … in all these new cities they are making these big towers without any identity. Really I don’t see any good cases today. Maybe right now is not a good time because in the last 30 years people have been very busy chasing this modern image. Maybe now [that] things are slowing down it is a good time to revisit this issue.

One complaint that I’ve heard from architects is that it is fairly common for an architect to do a plan but then not have much control over the construction of it. So corners are cut, and builders don’t execute according to the plan exactly. Is this something you have experienced in your work? Maybe this is a larger problem for me than for other people, because I think my design is too complicated for contractors in China. Even for the purely technical level it is quite difficult, and a contractor doesn’t have the time , or the experience to think about it, because they have very tight schedules. A lot of architecture I do has a curvature, has a very unique detail. There is no machine for that … Some people really criticize the architect for not controlling the details, [but] in fact most architects don’t have to be onsite every day. We really send our architects to the site to control every day, and they really fight. This helps a little bit, but you have to control it from a very emotional level. You have to make a friend with [the builders] because there is no standard or policy that says people have to listen to the architect

because you shouldn’t be there. For architects, if you are there you try to control the quality, but people think you are making trouble. It is not in the contract, it is not the way it works … It’s not only when you challenge them, but even then the lowest standard can be difficult [to meet].

Perhaps your most famous building is in Toronto, so I was wondering about the differences between building there versus building in China. How would you compare those two processes? Firstly the budgets are different. In China, you don’t have much choice. You don’t pick all the high quality, imported materials, so many materials and details are made with less good quality, so when you put them together they are not so perfect looking. I think the processes are similar. We make a drawing, and then they give the drawing to a contractor, and the contractor makes a mockup. We give feedback and then they change it. The next time they put the real material on the [mockup], and we visit again to make the final change, and [finally] they will go for it. In China, this is basically the procedure, but the material is not so good … There is a museum we did with a stainless steel curtain wall. Every piece is a curved piece, and it is a unique piece. They were perfect in the factory in south China, but on the way, when the pieces arrived at the site, every piece was damaged. We could only select the most damaged for replacement, and they needed another month to replace them. Otherwise you had to keep them.

September 2013

49


REPORT

Food retailing Foreign retailers crossed off China's fast food menu

C

hina’s expanding waistlines can be used as an indicator of the frenzied penetration of fast food outlets throughout the country over the past decade. The remarkable growth of foreign fast food chains in China has been attributed to several factors. Principal among them is the retailers’ ability to respond to unique market conditions in this land of 1.4 billion people. Walk into any KFC in China and you’ll see a menu offering pork burgers, shrimps and rice dishes in addition to multiple chicken-based options. Many outlets are spacious, reflecting the preference to eat in-store. In recent months however Chinese consumers have given Ronald McDonald and Colonel Sanders a reason to turn their wide smiles turn into concerned frowns. KFC parent Yum! Brands announced an estimated 13% drop in July like-forlike China store sales from a year earlier, following a 10% declines in sales year-

50

September 2013

on-year in June and a 19% drop in May. McDonald’s reported “negative” results for China for May through July. Analysts cite lingering concerns over food safety. Late last year some KFC suppliers were entangled in a tainted poultry scandal. Then in April an avian flu crisis rocked China and saw consumers shun chicken. McDonald’s has also had its fair share of problems with this issue. Chinese consumers are starting to view Western fast food brands as less healthy than local operators , according to research house Mintel. The way foreign fast food retailers position themselves in China also poses challenges to their operations. In Western markets fast food is a convenient and cost-effective option for lowincome families, especially during recessions when consumers attempt to economize. Chinese consumers still view foreign fast food joints as small luxuries, which they are willing to cut back on during times of economic uncertainty,

as is now the case. Just as the desire for a modern way of living once drew customers to the Golden Arches to enjoy a Western experience, a foreign trend of a different kind could now be luring them away. Independent China retail analyst Paul French suggests that the pursuit of a healthier lifestyle is one of the main factors behind the declining appeal of fast food. In a country where obesity has become an alarming problem, urbanites increasingly bombarded with adverts promoting fit bodies and healthy minds are paying more attention to what goes into their mouths. Sports and fitness participation is growing steadily, if not exponentially It’s almost impossible to walk through a shopping mall in Shanghai without being accosted by attractive salespeople promoting gym membership. So should executives be concerned about their longer-term prospects in this vital market? Not necessarily. Their companies are already well entrenched in affluent coastal cities with a presence at all major consumer locations. Brand awareness is strong and as salaries rise, workers in less developed parts of the country will replace the educated professionals who are turning to healthy pursuits to enjoy better life experience. To get a reading on the health of McDonald’s and company in the coming few years, a quick glance at the waistlines of residents in third and fourth-tier cities should suffice.


Tips for property investing in north America What services does GPS International provide? GPS International builds overseas property investment portfolios for clients in Asia. The sprinting pace of international business in Asia moves so fast, that many people don’t have time to really research or perform the due diligence necessary on the best property investments. At GPS International, we simplify this process by working with our global network to find customized solutions for our clients’ individual needs and goals. What markets does GPS International currently recommend to its clients? We are currently recommending property investments in North America over other property markets at this time. I am advising clients to hold off on investing in Europe until Spring 2014. Both the United States and Canada are in a good position in specific property markets. We are currently only recommending markets that fit our investment strategy like California and New York in the United States. We also offer Canadian investment opportunities in Edmonton, the capitol of Alberta Province. What is the best strategy for investing in overseas property during these uncertain economic times? We recommend low risk property investments that first protect our clients’ investment, while targeting aggressive growth. Some of the investments we recommend produced returns well over 15% per annum during the most recent “global financial crisis.” Most of our clients exit their investments in a four to seven1 year period. At that

Regan Richardson Senior Partner & Founder, GPS International Limited

time, clients will receive their anticipated cash-flow with increased financial wealth and flexibility. What important factors should one consider when investing in overseas property? Investors should always consider their exit strategy when purchasing an investment property. An investor should hold a property on average between five to ten years to optimize returns. We do not encourage our clients to sell properties before that time. We also recommend clients leverage their investments to minimize their initial outlay costs. However, in China many clients still choose to pay cash for property rather than get financing from a bank. A good property investment should meet the following criteria: 1. Located in a stable (political, economic, social) market 2. Property should be purchased below or at market value 3. Strong Rental Market, usually a 90% plus Occupancy Rate 4. Gross Rental Yields between 5%-10% 5. Strong Secondary market for selling the property investment

What is your company’s position on Immigration Investment in North America? We are currently working with some immigration programs in the United States. Immigration programs like the United States EB-5 Programs are not for every investor. Chinese and other foreign nationals should consider their long term goals before applying for this type of investment. These programs usually require a minimum of USD $500,000 and a certain level of risk. If we feel a client is qualified, we will introduce them to the programs we offer. What if an investor wants to buy a home to live or for personal use? If an investor wants to buy a home for personal use or reasons other than just investment, we can still help them to find the right property. Thirty percent of our business comes from clients looking for properties for personal use. How should investors begin the process of overseas property investment? It starts with a simple phone call. If you have at least USD $25,000 to invest in overseas property, we can work with you. There is no charge to meet with our consultants and most can usually work around your schedule. Our consultants can also meet at your place of work if requested. We have offices in Hong Kong and Shanghai to better serve the market. For More Information Contact: GPS International Limited Phone: +86-21-3120-3035 Email: info@gps-asia.com Visit Our Website: www.gps-asia.com

CO-PUBLISHED ARTICLE

INTERVIEW • REGAN RICHARDSON


话题

产业投资异军突起 投资市场一定要为实体经济服务 文 | 铁琴 体经济缺少资金,中小企业融资难

资,以风险投资公司为代表的投资主体所

投资市场一定要为实体经济服务,这样才

困局日益凸显,从而拖累了经济的

关注的高风险、高回报投资;另一类是传

能健康、稳定发展,才有可能长期获得较

转型升级。政府近期不断推出一些政策和

统产业投资,目标是风险性较小、收益稳

好的收益,才能提高国民的财富。”亚盟

举措以将资金引入实体经济,缓解中小企

定的基础设施建设等投资。

产业集团董事长白彬先生在“助力产业投

业的困难;而民间产业投资也日趋活跃。

战略性新兴产业是产业投资机构关注

拥有10亿规模的亚盟产业集团于近日宣

的重点领域。国务院《关于加快培育和发

亚盟产业集团创建于2000年6月,下

布进军产业投资,为提振实体经济助一臂

展战略性新兴产业的决定》明确,现阶段

属金融、社区、传媒、人才四大元素资源

之力,目前投资领域集中在连锁经营、能

重点培育和发展节能环保、新一代信息技

平台。为中小企业发展提供资金、营销通

源、交通、生态农业、旅游、矿产、房地

术、生物、高端装备制造、新能源、新材

路、媒体、人才的四大核心支持,也为家

产7个领域。

料、新能源汽车等产业。到2015年,战略

庭提供投资理财、消费优惠、生活资讯、

资·创新服务未来”分享会上表示。

产业投资又称为实业投资,是指为

性新兴产业增加值占国内生产总值的比重

工作就业的四大基础服务。亚盟资本管理

获取预期收益,以货币购买生产要素,从

要力争达到8%左右。到2020年,战略性

集团隶属于亚盟产业集团,是专业的投资

而将货币收入转化为产业资本,形成固定

新兴产业增加值占国内生产总值的比重力

基金管理公司,拥有专业的金融投资管理

资产、流动资产和无形资产的经济活动。

争达到15%左右。节能环保、新一代信息

团队,建立了“稳健为核心”的投资业务

它是指一种对企业进行股权投资和提供经

技术、生物、高端装备制造产业成为国民

管理标准,在国内首家大规模开设“理财

营管理服务的利益共享、风险共担的投资

经济的支柱产业,新能源、新材料、新能

中心”门店,并发布了国内首个“职业投

方式。

源汽车产业成为国民经济的先导产业。

资人作业标准”。

产业投资机构要求参与管理,协助企 业制定中长期发展战略及营销战略规划,

从美国市场来看,第三方理财机构已

金融服务平台

经占到了财富管理行业市场份额的60%,

评估投资和经营计划的时间进度,销售和

“国力增长一定是实体经济发展带来

而中国的第三方理财市场仍然不足5%,也

财务预测的合理性等一系列方案。中国的

的。投资市场的发展与实体经济发展是同

就意味着未来十年,中国第三方理财市场

产业投资主要分为两类:一类是创业投

步的,只有经济发展了,投资才能赚钱。

将会呈现出几何式增长。这一行业将出现 洗牌,一些中小机构可能会逐步淘汰,也 给大品牌机构带来了机会。 “我们立足建立最好的金融服务平 台,专注于中小企业融资市场与中高端家 庭理财,个性化的品牌服务奠定了在投资 界的权威以及良好的企业形象。”白彬说 道,“成为最值得信赖的个人财富管理 商与企业投资融资平台是我们孜孜不倦的 追求。”

看好哪些产业 目前的经济环境下,民间资本投资企 业的市场比重逐年增长,国家发改委也将 会同有关部门和地方政府,为民间投资发 展营造良好的市场、政策和法治环境。白 彬介绍,亚盟于2012年上半年开始启动产 为提振实体经助一臂之力

52

September 2013

业投资模式,目前投资领域集中在连锁经


营品牌、能源、交通、生态农业、旅游、 矿产、房地产等七个实体经济领域,其中 大多与战略新兴产业相吻合。白彬表示, 投资方向将始终围绕着经济转型和消费升 级展开。 白彬认为,旅游产业和商业地产蕴涵 着很高的投资价值,旅游地产、医疗旅游 也前程似锦。旅游地产指依托周边丰富的 旅游资源而建的、有别于传统住宅项目的 融旅游、休闲、度假、居住为一体的置业 项目。旅游地产市场基本呈现“一级城市 靠地产,二、三级城市靠资源”的态势。 而医疗旅游是将旅游和健管家服务结合起 来的一种旅游形式,目前全球医疗旅游人 数已经上升到每年数百万以上。 作为文化艺术界的代表人物,书法篆 刻家高式熊先生认为,随着经济的发展, 文化的地位正在提升。白彬也十分看好文 化产业的投资价格和发展前景。

将投资风险降到最低

文化产业是指为提升生活尤其是精神 生活品质而提供的可以进行商品交易的生

控制风险的核心就是控制成败的“概

贷相结合的金融服务网站,正式的中文译

产与服务。从广义上看,传媒、卡通、影

率”,亚盟通过以下方式提升成功概率。

名是“人人贷”。网络借贷指的是借贷过

视、娱乐、游戏、旅游、教育、网络及信

首先,经营团队以“持股”形式对业绩全

程中,资料与资金、合同、手续等全部通

息服务、音乐、戏剧、艺术博物馆等都属

面负责,即责任分担,权益分享。其次,

过网络实现,它是随着互联网的发展和民

于文化产业。文化产业因为政府的支持与

设立“止盈止损”标准。通过此标准,再

间借贷的兴起而发展起来的一种新的金融

推动已成为朝阳产业。

次降低亏损风险。再次,投资不是赌博,

模式,这也是未来金融服务的发展趋势。

中国各省区市文化产业竞争明显增

亚盟奉行“同行业的多篮子投资”模式,

P2P网络借贷也存在着风险,包括参

强,东、中部地区仍然是文化产业发展的

以便更好掌控投资风险,降低亏损概率。

与者的信用风险和网贷平台自身的风险。

主要增长区。而上海市希望文化产业为提

跨业多篮子投资很难计算概率,不能较

白彬指出,民间借贷影响民间借贷发展的

升城市的综合竞争力,提供精神动力与智

好的控制。最后,对实体行业进行“股权

最大障碍是诚信缺失的问题,建立一整套

力支持,并创造经济价值和塑造城市形

投资”。

完善的信用风险管理体系是当务之急。由

象。经过多年的成长和积累,上海文化产

随着市场经济飞速发展,民间借贷需

于人人贷存在一定的信用风险问题,一向

业已位居全国前列。借此东风,亚盟资本

求日益旺盛,有消息称发改委将大力支持

重视风险控制的亚盟早已退出了人人贷

就文化产业的发展将于9月份在上海进行研

民间贷款。

市场。

讨,随之确认文化产业投资的主要方向。

如何控制风险

民间借贷是指公民之间、公民与法人

“中国商贸与投资市场最核心的问题

之间、公民与其它组织之间借贷。只要双

在于信用体系不完善,所以原有的小贷很

方当事人意见表示真实即可认定有效,因

难了解一家企业真实的经营。”他认为,

投资就会有风险,怎样才能将风险降

借贷产生的抵押相应有效,但利率不得超

产业投资可依托强大的后台历史数据,筛

到最低?白彬介绍了亚盟对投资风险的控

过人民银行规定的相关利率。民间借贷分

选出优质的行业生态链;才能共享长期收

制模式。作为国内第一个对外公布投资作

为民间个人借贷活动和公民与金融企业之

益,同时才能真正帮助到被投资企业创造

业标准的品牌,亚盟通过五重风险控制体

间的借贷。民间个人借贷活动必须严格遵

价值,真正控制好风险。

系、透明化投资过程、第三方财务监管、

守国家法律、行政法规的有关规定,遵循

为职业投资人提供专业培训等多种形式控

自愿互助、诚实信用原则。

制和平衡投资风险,实现对普通投资者最 大的保障。

在民间借贷中,最有代表性的就是 P2P网络借贷平台,是P2P借贷与网络借

“中国的投资需要稳健、高效与保 障,需要专业、执着与冷静,也需要政策 的逐步开发与扶持,以此让更多的投资者 增加财产性收入。”白彬说道。

September 2013

53


REPORT

Waiting for 4G China’s telcos still have big questions about the coming faster mobile standard

C

hina’s telecoms regulator has recently added a touch of clarity to the confusion surrounding the future technological direction of the country’s mobile market – a touch and nothing more. After months of speculation on when the Ministry of Industry and Internet Technology (MIIT) would grant 4G licenses to mobile operators, the State Council finally confirmed in mid-July that it would out the keys to this next-generation technology by the end of the year. That promised to herald a new era for telecommunications in China: The country’s big three mobile operators could pump more than US$11 billion into 4G networks in 2014, giving businesses and consumers the kind of data speeds necessary to compete in a knowledge economy. But the announcement in July has

54

September 2013

cleared the view only for market leader China Mobile, which will have 200,000 4G towers and counting on the ground by the time the MIIT gets around to handing out the licenses. As for China Unicom and China Telecom, the two smaller operators could be in the dark on the future of their 4G networks until they have licenses in hand.

Wishful thinking China Mobile, the world’s biggest telecom operator by subscribers, will without a doubt use TDD to operate its 4G network. TDD is a primarily Chinadeveloped standard and the government has mandated China Mobile to use it. Signals from MIIT are much more ambiguous for China Unicom and China Telecom. Both state-owned companies have indicated that they

would like to use FDD, a better tested and internationally developed standard, to run their 4G networks. Whether MIIT will be receptive to those wishes has yet to be seen. Although building a TDD network will be more costly and time consuming than FDD, the government may want more of its technology employed in the domestic market to build up the capabilities of companies operating in an advanced industry. “[China Unicom and China Telecom] want FDD licenses but the government has a plan – and that’s its own plan,” said Mark Natkin, founder and managing director of Beijing-based Marbridge Consulting, which focuses on the telecoms and IT. “I think they are both cautious about building out right now because they don’t know what kind of license they will get.” Phone makers are just as clueless on what kind of network the companies will use, added Nicole Peng, a Shanghai-based analyst at technology research firm Canalys. This could challenge the ability of companies such as Samsung to fill orders on phones after the final announcements are made. The uncertainty surrounding 4G for the two smaller firms looks like a huge advantage for China Mobile. By year’s end, Chinese smartphone users looking for faster connections will have no choice but to sign up with the communications behemoth, which has already deployed test versions of that service in many major cities.


The little guy There’s still hope that China Unicom’s 3G network could help it barrel through the coming regulatory confusion, according to Peng. The company’s 3G network, which uses an international standard, has been a huge success compared to China Mobile’s launch on home-grown technology. Users have lauded the service as faster and having a better signal. China Unicom might be able to hold out on earnings from the 3G network until as late as mid-2014, Peng said, which would reduce the need to fork out huge sums of cash on a new network now while the company is unclear about which standard it will be allowed to use. The mobile unit of China’s giant landline operator doesn’t have that luxury. “China Telecom is in a much worse situation,” Peng said. The smallest of China’s mobile operators, China Telecom recently bought out its network from its parent company, leaving it already strapped for cash. Its 3G network has also been less lucrative than China Unicom’s. To compete with its larger peers, the company will need to launch a strong 4G brand in a timely manner: That will be tough given the continued regulatory opacity. Despite the advantages to using an internationally developed standard, the companies hoping to build out FDD networks will be waiting for several more months to be instructed on the nature of their 4G services. Perhaps the strongest message the government has sent so far is that those that use the China-developed TDD have an unobstructed regulatory path before them.

China’s pharma crackdown The GSK scandal dangles the prospect of real reforms in China’s troubled medicine sector

A

ccording to various reports, British drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has been bribing Chinese doctors to prescribe its products such as Botox and a number of antidepressants. The illicit funds, amounting to some US$450 million, were reportedly channeled through Chinese travel agencies. But the case is calling into question far more than just the kickbacks and sex parties to which the London-listed firm allegedly treated Chinese doctors. In fact, new details indicate the case could sweep up several international industry players as it progresses. Authorities have already questioned drug makers AstraZeneca and UCB. In early July, the National Development and Reform Commission said it would investigate the pricing of pharma products at 33 multinationals. Foreign drug makers must be trembling at the thought of a much deeper dig into wrongdoings. But the question now is whether or not these investigations will bring about cheaper drug prices for Chinese consumers while also shedding some light on the environment that allowed GSK’s malpractice to thrive. So far, the signs are promising. GSK’s president already traveled to Beijing to pledge lower drug prices. The government hasn’t simply

unleashed one of its periodic attacks on Western firms, and state media is reporting on domestic malfeasance. A probe into Chinese hospitals in the city of Zhangzhou in Fujian province found that more than 1,000 nurses and administrators in 73 different hospitals had taken bribes along with about 90% of all doctors in the city. A separate investigation showed that 39 employees at one Guangdong hospital took kickbacks. While lounging on the beach with bikini-clad call girls sounds inexcusable, Chinese doctors that take bribes may simply be using the cash to pay the rent. The starting wage for a doctor is about US$490 a month, or about as much as a taxi driver’s. The incredible amount of money paid out on drugs is one major factor in keeping doctors and medical staff poor. Most Western countries spend between 10-12% of their annual health care budgets on drugs; China forks out more than 40%. China has been struggling with an arduous reform of its medical system for years. Cutting back on the price it pays for drugs is a good place to start. Some doctors may enjoy free trips to Bermuda with hookers in tow, but health care costs for average Chinese are rising and quality medical care is slipping out of their reach.

September 2013

55


REPORT

The road to success US failures could teach China’s automakers how to avoid major problems and continue to grow heathily

I

n early 20th-century China, personal transportation didn’t get much better than a rickshaw. On the other side of the world, automakers like Winton Motor Carriage Company in Cleveland, Ohio were bringing automobiles to the masses. By 1924, however, Winton was out of business. An inability to produce enough cars to meet national demand helped bankrupt the company as the major US automakers grew stronger. Nearly 100 years later, as China’s car market experiences an auto boom similar to that of the US, small mainland automakers may find themselves in a similar position as they struggle to serve the growing needs and requirements of today’s Chinese car buyers.

56

September 2013

China now has more than 170 automakers. That’s roughly comparable to the more than 250 car manufacturers in the US just after the turn of the century. Like Winton, many of the Chinese firms are small, local ventures with production capacities that pale in comparison to the major automakers. These companies may survive for now as the world’s largest auto market continues to boom, but the industry is headed for a turning point. “China is in a total seller’s market, anything you bring in there, you will sell,” said John Heitmann, a professor at Dayton University who studies automotive history. “Someday you will get to a point where it will become a buyer’s market and that will be earth

shaking. Then your marginal regional guys will be in huge trouble.” China’s top producers are meanwhile struggling with production capacity in a different way – many are actually overcapacity. An emphasis on production over quality could sap much-needed R&D funds. Big or small, how Chinese auto makers address this question of capacity may determine which companies dominate the market in decades to come.

Lessons from their American cousins Chinese automakers that want to grow beyond the provincial level should look to their historical American counterparts for the keys to turning a local operation into a national one. “What really made the American car market, and the survivors, was this ability to generate volume, and those that didn’t generate volume ended up, in the long term, falling to the wayside,” said Heitmann, author of “The Automobile and American Life.” US automotive history is full of companies that illustrate this point. The 1910s and 20s saw dozens of automakers disappear all over the country. The list of now-unknown companies is littered with names like Maxwell in Tarrytown, New York, Chalmers in Detroit, Michigan and Velie in Moline, Illinois. The number of American car makers shrank from a peak of 272 in 1909,


to only nine in 1941. Small automakers were absorbed by larger players or went bankrupt. Meanwhile, the three big US automakers set up massive production operations based out of Detroit that could serve the entire nation. As the market consolidated, General Motors, Ford and Chrysler grew stronger.

Produce or perish China’s 170 automakers appear to be on the same path, said John Zeng, Asia Pacific Director at LMC Automotive in Shanghai. “We have already seen some tiny, local manufacturer dying at the moment.” While in most markets these automakers would merely disappear, the production license held by Chinese manufacturers makes them far too valuable to simply go out of business, Zeng said. He pointed to the example of Jiangnan Auto. The struggling company, which made rebranded Suzuki-model cars, was bought by Zoyte Auto, rather than being allowed to fail. Zoyte now sells the same rebadged Suzukis under its own brand as the Zoyte TT. Many small Chinese automakers will find similar fates. Even if they recognize they are behind on capacity, they may be too far behind to mount a comeback. Take, for example, Zhejiang Jonway Automobile. Jonway’s production capacity of only 30,000 units makes it one of the smallest automakers in China. SAIC, China’s largest automotive manufacturer, sold 4.49 million vehicles in 2012, thanks in part to its joint ventures with foreign automakers. When faced with such a steep dis-

advantage, Jonway is likely to go the way of Jiangnan and be absorbed by a larger competitor. “[Small automakers] will exist only at the convenience of the big producers, and they could be stamped out whenever they decide to put there foot down,” Heitmann said.

Overcapacity at the top Unlike small, regional manufacturers, China’s larger manufacturers are actually able to produce many more cars than they would be able to sell. Klaus Paur, Global Head of Automotive at Ipsos market research, said that overcapacity is concentrated in the top 20-25% largest automakers. “They are probably using 70% of their production capacity. This also means that they have high inventory at the dealership level,” Paur said. State-owned Chery, China’s largest vehicle exporter, has four factories with a combined capacity of 900,000 units, but sold only 500,000 in 2012. The company’s focus on quantity over quality has become clear since it

started selling some of its models in Australia in 2011. Since its introduction, the brands image has been marred by multiple quality issues, including poor performance in standard safety tests and recalls for asbestos used in the car’s exhaust and engine gaskets . This kind of recall is increasingly unacceptable in the Chinese market, as Chinese buyers are expecting ever higher quality. But their overemphasis on capacity has distracted from technology at the largest automakers. Chinese automakers should put the brakes on capacity in order to get a handle on their technology gap. Research and development needs to take a more prominent role in their plans for growth. Without a change in priorities, large Chinese companies will be in just as much trouble as their smaller counterparts. Otherwise, the dangerous combination of overcapacity and low technology means China’s biggest car manufacturers could find themselves overproducing a product that Chinese consumers don’t even want.

September 2013

57


话题

快时尚OUT了 以体验经济为代表的量身定制的服装发展潮流正在兴起 文 | 胡艳丽

购物一旦成瘾,便很难刹车

将是最受年轻女性欢迎的经济学读

随波逐流中。那么,为何追逐时尚却陷入

平价衣物开始充斥美国市场,它令服装不

物,粉红色的书封,搭配最流行、

了平庸的行列?追求潮流反而垃圾满柜?

再是昂贵的商品,激烈的行业竞争,蕴孕

最炫酷的时装镜、高跟鞋、各式口红、小

接下来,作者开始了一次关于时尚的探寻

着设计、生产、销售的变革。各种平价及

拎包,尤如一个小小的时尚秀场,只需一

之旅,她在书中一层一层剥开时尚的迷离

折扣服装连锁店,开始陆续出现。伴随着

枚主角,便可以踢踏出一个季节的时尚风

外衣,追溯它的由来,以及商家是如何以

美国经济的不景气,来自日本、中国的服

景。黑、粉搭配的封面底色,令该书有了

“时尚”为诱饵,敲开消费者紧捂的钱

装迅速攻占了美国服装市场,钱包已经紧

高贵、经典、奢华的况味,不论读者对经

袋,从此细水长流消费不断,以及消费者

缩的美国中产阶段,不得不下调服装品质

济学是否感兴趣,都会想借此书一探时尚

的购物偏好又是如何反作用于“快时尚”

预期,选择还算“物有所值”的外国低价

的究竟,向那些潮流品牌暗送秋波。

服装产业链,逐波拉低快销商品的品质,

服饰。尽管美国已经看到了其服装产业,

搅乱全球经济格局。

在发展中国家不断冲击下开始风雨飘摇,

《时尚经济学》的作者(美)伊丽

58

莎白L.克莱因(Elizabeth L. Cline),曾经

在美国,服装曾经是昂贵的代名词。

并在一定时间内实施了配额保护措施,但

是不折不扣的购物狂人,每周都会去一些

它们做工考究,质地精量,大部分产于美

伴随着全球一体化的大势来袭,贸易壁垒

快时尚店铺打猎所谓的潮流服饰,购物一

国本土。正因它的昂贵,人们珍视衣物,

只能在一段时间内保护本国脆弱的服装产

旦成瘾,便很难刹车。当她意识到自己的

小心翼翼地对其修改裁剪,一件衣服可以

业,美国本土服装加工厂仍是不可避免地

购物成了问题,开始清点衣柜、床柜、储

由母亲传给孩子,由姐姐传给妹妹,缝缝

走向了穷途末路,一些工厂变卖设备,关

物袋的时候,才发现这些衣物廉价而缺

补补都是再平常不过的事情。甚至一度在

门“大吉”。

少个性,甚至她已经囤积了7双同款帆布

美国人心中,购买服装是一项投资,而不

世界经济格局正在被改写,廉价服

鞋,这些东西让她逐渐淹没在没有个性的

是消费。伴随着发展中国家的崛起,一批

装风头正劲,它们便宜到可以和一杯咖

September 2013


啡、一个三明治等值。如今,美国人的服

道,至今未走出一条特色化发展之路,那

装消费习惯正在被精明的商家改写,花样

些没有任何表达的快时尚产品,与中国古

翻新的潮流服饰,改变了美国人按季购衣

老的服饰文明背道而驰。

要从现在开始。 伊丽莎白在《时尚经济学》(机械工 业出版社中文版)自序中这样写道:

的习惯,人们购衣频率由每年4次变为每

作者对快时尚的叛逃,一是由于廉价

—当然,并非一味沉湎于过去才能

年48次,甚至更多。为了刺激消费者的购

服装缺少个性、款式平庸,降低了作者的

让我们穿得更加时髦。由于科技的日新月

物欲望,商家想方设法缩短服装从设计到

品位和自我辨识度,令其淹没于“流行”

异,不断改进的服装生产模型以及环保纺

上市的时间,不幸的是这些服装生命周期

的大潮中,失去自我;其二是缘于作者的

织面料的问世,我们现在完全可以不用以

更短,正所谓“朝生夕死”。它们将很快

环保意识,快销服装生命周期过于短暂,

牺牲时尚为代价来设计服装。实际上,我

被新款服装替代,成为压在箱底的古董,

而在快销服装的生产、运输、销售过程中

发现那些有良心的设计师,因为不用讨好

甚至开始悲催的二手货飘泊之旅。而当消

产生了大量的碳排放,其三是作者对于一

公司的股东或者频繁现身于那些星光熠熠

费者在购物荷尔蒙的刺激下,买下一件又

线生产服装工人的生存忧虑,低价服装的

的服装秀,反而能够使用市面上最好玩、

一件折扣服装,很快就会将它们抛之脑

盛行必然伴随着对于一线工人工资的克

给人带来最惊奇感觉的面料,他们中的有

后,“鸡肋服装”由此产生,部分服装成

扣,无论是科技进步还是规模生产,都保

些人如今也是服装设计行业中最具创新意

了一次性用品。

证不了服装生产工人的权益。

识的设计师。

对于创造力无限的美国人来说,与

目前,中国仍缺少属于自己的世界服

— 我不用再说什么了,我们的衣

已然形成规模效应的发展中国家拼服装价

装品牌,缺少世界一流的服装设计师,缺

服曾经和我们有着亲密的关系,并且能与

格,显然会满盘皆输,而走精品路线,拼

少服装的中国性格,未在世界上刮起一股

我们相伴一生。我们曾经是自己衣服的管

设计、拼质量、拼高端品牌似乎成了唯一

有独特魅力的服装中国风,同时,也没有

家。想要对服装采取一种截然不同的态

的出路。体验经济来袭,美国正欲借此机

形成成熟的服装消费群体。在体验经济已

度,想要真正喜欢并且理解自己的服装,

会在全球范围内翻转服装经济格局。美国

经风起云涌的今天,在大的方面,中国如

厌倦了拎着一个装满了各种廉价服饰的超

服装业者将目标消费群体锁定在了全球消

何走出服装产业的特色化发展之路,如何

大型购物袋挤地铁,我开始了一段探索之

费者的梯形塔尖,在美国本土只生产让中

迎击美国的服装订制时代;在小的方面,

旅。在这个过程中,我发现了廉价服饰业

产阶级仰望的高端服饰,奢华的服装成为

我们每一个消费者,如何从我做起,改变

是如何绑架了时尚行业,遇到了各种各样

消费者尊崇地位的代名词。即便如此,群

消费习惯,理性消费、价值消费、个性消

从潮流的统治下逃离的人们,并且最终斩

峰之巅是否风光无限,贵族经济能否成为

费,是该书带给我们应有的启示,改变需

断了自己对于廉价服饰的迷恋。

支撑美国服装产业复苏的救命稻草,甚至 伴随着发展中国家富人阶层的崛起,全球 服装价格会否走出一轮V形反转行情,一 切尚是未知数。可以肯定的是以体验经济 为代表的量身定制、量身设计的服装发展 潮流正在全球兴起。 作者将近一半的笔墨用于描述分析 中国服装产业的发展对于美国乃至世界服 装业的冲击。在作者笔下,中国的服装产 业无所不能,一家工厂就可以搞定服装生 产的所有环节,这为服装“快时尚”创造 了最佳条件。笔者认为,从另一个侧面而 言,是世界服装快时尚改造了中国服装产 业,中国是一个有着源远流长服饰文明的 古老国度,虽然在文化浩劫期间,灰和黑 曾一度统治了中国的服装世界,但伴随着 中国经济的复苏,蕴藏在民间美的意识、 独属于中国的国风国韵也应逐渐苏醒,但 可悲的是中国服装产业尚未成型,就为了 谋求快速发展冲进了世界代工厂的畸形轨

量身定制的服装潮流正在兴起

September 2013

59


看中国

欲速则不达 傲慢的态度和压力情绪是导致“马路对擂”的原始力量 文 | 晏格文 (Graham Earnshaw)

晏格文

长一段时间以来

同时我还注意到,尽管中国驾车者的

其《吾国吾民》一书中对中国人处理此类

我对中国的路面

经验日益丰富(中国人的驾车水平已在过

问题的传统方法做了精辟总结,简言之即

交通状况都颇为关注。还

去20年间大幅提升),但撞车事故的数量

为“先礼后兵”。该著作发表于1936年,

记得1979年,我驾驶蓝

似乎持续上升。所以我有理由相信,相撞

堪称是对中国人心理分析的杰作。

色的大众甲壳虫在北京的

事故渐多的原因并非由于中国人的驾车技

换言之,激进的行为并非完全受到排

马路上肆意驰骋,周围除

术,而是他们激进的驾车行为—因肆意

斥,但须在以礼待人之后。这样一来,人

了公交车、军用吉普以及

冲撞而导致事故的发生。

们就不会为冲突而衍生出的其他问题所牵

“马路对擂”的行为匪夷所思,也确

与我并驾齐驱的汽车寥

无必要,同时更反映出深层次的问题。公

就驾车而言,激进的举动或许能为

共媒体将部分原因归咎于天气,但依我之

你赢得一秒的时间,让你排在其他汽车之

所以从当时的交通状况来看,在马

见傲慢的态度和压力情绪是导致这类行为

前,却也可能酿成事故,让你不得不耗上

路上发生相撞事故的几率很小,若不幸真

的原始力量。类似于驾车以及生活中的过

数天的工夫。胜利真的就是一切吗?也许

的遇上,撞到的很有可能是人,而非汽

激行为往往并不明智,也于事无补。

吧。然而应谨记的是,欲速则不达,真正

寥。满大街只见潮水般的自行车流。

车。本人唯一的一次撞车经历发生在80

20世纪中国伟大的作家林语堂先生在

年代初(1980或1981年),当时我驾车 行驶在几近空旷的北京二环马路上,刹那 间一位身穿蓝色中山装的骑车人出现在我 眼前,我急忙刹车,而他则因为惯性从车 上摔下来,倒在了马路旁。幸好对方并无 大碍,只是感觉眼冒金星。“我没看见你 的车。”他喃喃道。“那是因为你压根没 看。”我做出回击。 事实上我比他更害怕,要知道在那 个年代一个诸如此类的小事故就能演变成 一起重大的法律案件,当事人也将因此遭 到控诉。尽管中国人的各种观念在过去30 年间已逐步发生变化,但在当时的人们看 来,无论情况如何外国人总是过失方。所 以我很走运—被撞的骑车人缓缓地站了 起来,捡起自行车,径自骑走了。 到了20世纪90年代,中国的驾车者 几乎都是单位的专职司机,这就是说车并 非他们个人所有,变道超车的行为于他们 亦无多少好处。然而时至今日情况则大有 不同。在我看来,随着过去10年间SUV汽 车,以及私家车主的大量涌现,中国的驾 车者已变得十分好斗,让道的行为也愈发 鲜见了。

60

绊,问题也能更好地得到解决。

偶遇的几辆红旗牌轿车,

September 2013

中国驾车者日众,且变得十分好斗

为你赢得胜利的往往是聪明理性的举动。


LOOKING AT CHINA

More haste, less speed The smug smile that comes from pushing in line may not be worth it in the long term. . By Graham Earnshaw

I

have been watching the state of traffic on China’s roads for quite a while. In 1979, I was driving a blue Volkswagen beetle around the streets of Beijing, much too fast, because there were no other vehicles, except for a few old public buses, a handful of army jeeps and the occasional red Flag limousine. Plus millions of bicycles. The danger of hitting something was low, but if you did hit something, it was likely to be flesh and not metal. I only ever hit a person in a car once.

I was on the almost deserted second ring road in Beijing in 1980 or 1981 and a cyclist in a blue Mao jacket suddenly turned in front of me. I slammed on the brakes, he bounced off the car front, and fell onto the road. He was okay, just dazed. ‘I didn’t see you coming,” he said. ‘You didn’t look,” I countered. I was more frightened than he was. The fear in those days was of a minor accident such as this becoming a major legal nightmare with huge claims being made. In that era, it was legally accepted and admitted that regardless of the circumstances, the foreigner was always in the wrong. Things have changed somewhat in the past 30 years. He stood up, got back on his bicycle and cycled away. Up to the 1990s, just about all drivers were working for a work unit. The car was not theirs, and there was nothing to be gained in any way from pushing forward. Not now. In the past decade, with the rise of the SUV, and the private driver on China’s roads, it has been my sense that Chinese drivers are becoming more and more aggressive, less and less willing to give way to other drivers. At the same time, the number of small accidents I see, cars that have bumped into each other, seems to be on the rise, even as China’s drivers are becoming more experienced – the overall standard of driving skills has risen significantly in the past two dec-

ades. So the reason for this apparent rise in the number of small accidents is not, I believe, poor driving skills, but aggressive driving practices – playing “chicken” and losing. It is puzzling and unnecessary, and of course reflective of deeper issues. Arrogance and stress, are two of the obvious ones. The weather has been blamed too, by the official media, but my main point here is that this aggressive approach to driving – and life – is not necessarily effective and usually not smart. The traditional Chinese approach was summed up well by the great 20th century Chinese writer Lin Yutang in his masterpiece “My Country and My People”, a psychoanalysis of the Chinese people, published in 1936. The key phrase, he said, was: “First politeness, then weapons” (先礼让而后兵). In other words, aggressiveness has its place, but try being polite first, it may get you where you want to go without any of the collateral problems that can be created by confrontation. In terms of driving, the aggressive approach may put you in front of the next car, and gain you one second, but it might also cause a collision and waste you several days. Winning is all? Maybe. But being pushy might not deliver the results that you really want. Being smart and considering options including reasonableness might be what brings you victory.

September 2013

61


西游记

紫竹观音 晏格文(Graham Earnshaw)生于英国,现居上海。他以上一次落脚点为起点,行程从上海一路 向西,横贯中国。本月,他已行至奉节县城以东。 文 | 晏格文(Graham Earnshaw )

绵细雨中我又再次踏上了旅途。此 时长江三峡北面的山正笼罩在薄雾

之下,一路上难觅行人的踪迹。沿途农舍 墙上的标语随处可见,内容多是号召年轻 人入伍参军。“热血男儿们,勇敢地响应 祖国的召唤吧!”一副标语这样写着。 顺着峡谷拾阶而上,我发现身旁的 河道愈发细窄,泉水渐清,直至尽头。之 后我又穿越山脊,沿着另一条峡谷顺势下 行,却眼见一旁的河流水质趋浑,流域面 积亦呈铺张之势。就海拔而言,我在两天 的行程中一路从350米的高度攀至1020米 的山脊,而后又返回原来的海平面。这样 平均下来,本人每天横向和纵向行走的里 程分别达到18公里和670米。相比之下, 上海金茂大厦的楼高也不过430米。

一尊佛像,形态栩栩如生,从像前碑文来

过佛像,以及中国乡村仍依稀可见的庙宇 来展现延续的传统。

下山的路蜿蜒向西,一江清水也分落

看,该佛像乃紫竹观音,传说是数百年前

途中我遇见了一位名叫彭晶晶的女

成好几处石滩,静静地躺在山川之间。然

由一名云游至此地的出家人修建而成。据

孩,她主动追上来与我攀谈。我当然乐于

而不知从何时起河水开始变得污浊,从道

说他是因为对三峡奇景心生赞叹而建造了

回应,并同她一起步行了数公里。晶晶今

路上半座山坡大小的泥沙来看,应是受到

紫竹观音庙。

年15岁,作为一名农村女孩敢于主动与外

了近日山体滑坡的影响。于是我饶有兴致

此庙占地仅约两平方米,须攀岩十

国人交谈这点就十分不寻常。当我发现远

地一路观察,想知道水流何时能再次变得

多个台阶才能触及,伴着前方油杯中的微

处山坡上的梯田大多闲置不用时,便向她

清澈。果然在行至4公里处发现其又恢复了

微火光,还能看见佛像前的圆形跪垫。察

打听起情况。

原貌,只是此时眼前的一座村落挡住了我

觉到香火将尽,我便从旁拿了半支重新点

“现在人们都不种田了,实在是不

们的去路。村的尽头是一座小型化肥厂,

燃,然后按照惯例将双膝跪于垫上,手持

值得。大部分人都是自给自足,然后会根

毋庸置疑,工厂的排放物直通河底。到了

香烛,阖目三叩首。一名妇女和一个小男

据市场行情种植一些商品作物。”她解释

第二座村落,河中的水生植物便开始呈现

孩有幸目睹了外国人拜佛的这一场景。结

道。

繁茂之势,肥料大抵就是这些不明的化学

束后我起身询问他们是否信佛,大人否

物质。然而河岸上则一如往常,铺满了大

认,而小男孩则意外地说是。

大小小的碎石,似乎在向我们展现中国的 现代文明。

62

此时我发现峡谷间的崖壁下耸立着

September 2013

我对于宗教信仰的看法一直十分矛 盾。尽管自身并非虔诚的信徒,却赞同通

晶晶的父亲在深圳做司机,母亲也在 当地打工,所以她在整个青少年时期几乎 很少见到他们。上初中的她如今选择了住 校,到了假期则与祖父一起生活。


T R AV E L J O U R N A L

“你多久见他们一次?”我问道。 “最近一次是在一年多前。” “你会和他们联系吗?” “当然,他们会打电话给我,大概一 个月一两次。” “那你就不能搬去和他们一起生活 吗?”我很疑惑。

Buddhist vistas Graham Earnshaw was born in England and has been walking west from Shanghai across China since 2004, always starting each trip from exactly the last place he stopped. This month, we find him east of Fengjie By Graham Earnshaw

“我去过一次深圳,但并不喜欢那 里。”话语间似乎还有隐情,但我就此打 住了。 她告诉我自己的梦想是考入重点高 中,然后在大学学习韩语或日语,将来成 为一名专业的口译员。 “你对南京大屠杀怎么看?”她话锋 一转,思路一下子从未来跳回过去。 “这个么……”我沉吟片刻,借机 思考了一会儿,“这确实是悲剧,但已 是长久以前的事了,与当今的日本人关 系不大。就好像我与鸦片战争也无多少 瓜葛。” 顷刻间她又转移了话题,称自己为国 家领导人感到骄傲,并对他们能掌控一切 颇感欣慰。 “但是腐败很严重。比如说县里用于 改善学校设施的资金都不知去向了,所以 我们的学校什么也没得到,连一台电脑, 一座图书馆都没有。”她补充道,说话的 腔调略显怪异。 我问她是否读过小说,她摇了摇头。 “学校不允许我们看小说,连用电脑 都不行。学校附近有一间网吧,但老师每 晚都去那,一旦发现有学生就会把他们赶 回来。”她向我解释。 有人说奉节、云阳两城间的山路不仅 狭长,且十分曲折,对此我一直想要弄个 明白。记得某日我行走了整整16公里,就 在快要到达尽头的时候,才发现在经度上 较出发地仅靠近上海30分。对此我却毫无 怨言,想到此处是从三峡山区到四川盆地 的最后一片村落,便不禁放慢了脚步。事 实上,与2006年我用六个月的时间穿越湖 北江汉平原相比,在广袤的三峡山区我已 整整行走了两年。

I

was out on the road again amidst a thin drizzle. The mountains to the north of the Yangtze Gorges were shrouded in mist and there were few people out for me to talk to. Many of the farmhouses had slogans on their walls urging young men to sign up for the army. “Answer the call of the motherland, you hot-blooded boys!” said one. I walked up one valley, following a river almost to its source, watching the watercourse get gradually smaller and cleaner, then crossed a ridge

and tracked downhill through another valley, following a different stream, watching it get bigger and dirtier with every kilometer. In terms of elevation, I walked in two days from about 350 meters about sea level to 1,020 meters at the ridge, then back down to 350 meters. So each day I walked around 18 horizontal kilometers and also did around 670 vertical meters. For comparison, the Jinmao Tower in Shanghai is 430 meters in height. The downhill stream, heading

September 2013

63


T R AV E L J O U R N A L

westwards, was crystal clear up to a point where a recent landslip had brought half a hillside down onto the road. From that point, the waters were muddy, and I watched with interest to see how long the mud would stay suspended in this stream, which consisted of a series of quiet pools interspersed with rocky rapids. The answer

64

September 2013

was about four kilometers, but just as the water had become clear once more, the stream hit its first village, and the first building on the outskirts was a small fertilizer factory, which of course was feeding gunk into the stream. By the second village, there were heavy growths of green vegetation in the waters, feeding off the unnatural

richness, while the banks were covered with the usual detritus of modern Chinese civilization. I came upon a shrine under a cliff by the road dedicated to the Lord Buddha in one of his more garishly Chinese forms. There was a plaque outside that said the shrine was named after the Purple Bamboo Buddha and had been in existence for hundreds of years, having been set up originally by a Taoist priest who had happened by and was enchanted by the vista before him. It was tiny; the shrine itself was a grotto up a dozen steep steps occupying a space of only two meters square. There was a flame burning in a small oil holder in front of the image, with a small round kneeling cushion on the ground. There was no fresh incense to be had, so I took a half burned stick and re-lit it, then did the usual obeisance to Buddha, kneeling on the cushion, holding the incense stick between my hands and waving it up and down three times. A woman and a boy had accompanied me up to see what the foreigner would do, and I asked them if they were believers. The woman said no, but the boy surprisingly said yes. I am ambivalent about signs of religious belief. I am not religious myself but I like the continuity of tradition represented by the shrines and little temples still to be found in some corners of the Chinese countryside. I met a young girl on the road named Peng Jingjing, who overtook me and asked if she could talk to me. I of course said yes, and we walked together for a few kilometers. She was 15 years old, and clearly extraordinary in that she was a farm girl taking the


initiative to get to know a strange foreign man walking through the village. I asked her about the terraced fields on the hillsides around us, many of which had fallen into disuse. “People have stopped farming them, it is not worth it,” she said. “People plant enough to eat themselves, and then maybe some cash crop depending on what has a good market price at the time.” She had spent almost her entire life apart from her parents. She lived with her grandfather and passed most of the year at the dormitory at her junior high school. Her parents lived in Shenzhen where her father had a job as a driver.

“When did you last see them?” I asked. “More than a year ago.” “Do you stay in touch?” “Yes, they call me, maybe once or twice a month.” “Could you not go and live with them?” I asked. “I went to Shenzhen once, but I hated it there.” There seemed to be more to the story, but I did not press her for details. Her dream, she said, was to get into a good senior high school, then a place in university to study Korean or Japanese to become an interpreter. “What do you think of the Nanjing massacre?” she asked, in a strange

segue from future to past. “Hmmm,” I replied, giving myself a moment to prepare an answer. “It was bad, but it was also a long time ago, and has little or nothing to do with the Japanese people of today, just as I had nothing to do with the Opium Wars.” She changed the subject again and said she was very proud of the Communist Party’s leaders and glad they had everything under control. “But the corruption is terrible,” she added in another weird juxtaposition. “All the money for improving schools in Yunyang, for instance, gets siphoned off, so our school gets none of it. We don’t have even one computer and there is no library.” I asked her if she ever read novels, and she shook her head. “They are not allowed, and we are not allowed to use computers either. There is an Internet caf_ near my school, but the teachers come over every evening and get any students there to leave.” I am in a position to confirm that the road between Fengjie and Yunyang is long and also very winding. On one particular day I walked around 16 kilometers, and at the end of it, I was 30 seconds of longitude closer to Shanghai than I had been at the start. But I didn’t hold it against the road. This was the last real stretch of mountain country before the mountains of the Gorges region smoothed out into the Sichuan basin. I was in no rush to leave the mountains. In fact, after having raced impatiently across the Hubei plain in just six months in 2006, I had spent two years sauntering through the vast mountain region dominated by the Gorges.

September 2013

65


LISTING Accounting Firms

www.lufthansa.com.cn

Suite 628, 6/F Shanghai Centre,

Tel: +86 10 6444 8900

S101 Beijing Lufthansa Center

1376 Nanjing Road West,

Fax: +86 10 6445 3870

50 Liangmaqiao Road, Chaoyang

Shanghai

agan@harrowbeijing.cn

Tel: +86 10 6468 8838

Tel: +86 21 6279 8660

Northwest Airlines Airport

mba@mbs-worldwide.ac.cn

Office www.nwa.com 32271 Passenger Terminal 2, Capital International Airport

Saint Paul American School

Tel: +86 010 6459 7827

www.stpaulschool.cn

Harris Corporate Services Ltd

KLM - Greater China Regional

18 Guan Ao Yuan, Longgang

www.harrissec.com.cn

Office

Shanghai Office

www.klm.com.cn

Tongji University SIMBA

100192

Suite 904, OOCL Plaza,

1609-1611 Kuntai International

A309 Sino-French Center, Tongji

PRC

841 Yan An Zhong Road,

Mansion, B12 Chaoyangmenwai

University, 1239 Siping Road

Tel: +86 137 1881 0084

Jing’An,

Avenue, Chaoyang, Beijing

Shanghai, PRC

spasadmissions@gmail.com

Shanghai, PRC

Tel: +86 10 5922 0747

Tel: +86 21 6598 0610

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6289 8813

Fax: +86 10 5879 7621

Fax: +86 21 6598 3540

Livingston American School

Fax:+86 21 6289 8816

Shanghai

China Europe Int’l Business

www.laschina.org

info.sh@harrissec.com.cn

Air France - Shanghai Office

School

580 Ganxi Road

Beijing Office

www.airfrance.com.cn

(CEIBS) MBA

Tel: +86 21 6238 3511

Room 2302, E-Tower, No.12

3901B Ciro’s Plaza

www.ceibs.edu

Fax:+86 21 5218 0390

Guanghua Road, Chaoyang,

388 Nanjing Road West

Tel: +86 21 2890 5555

Shanghai Community

Beijing, PRC

Tel: +86 21 6334 5702

Fax: +86 21 2890 5200

International School (Pudong

Tel: +86 10 6591 8087

mail.corporate.sha@airfrance.fr

admissions@ceibs.edu

Campus)

Shanghai Jiaotong-Euromed

www.scischina.org

Fax: +86 10 8599 9882 info.bj@harrissec.com.cn

Business Schools

Road Qinghe, Haidian, Beijing

Management AEMBA Program

800 Xiuyan Road, Kangqiao,

Guangzhou Office

Shanghai

(MBA/EMBA)

Pudong

Room D-E, 11/F, Yueyun

Fudan University - Washington

www.aemba.com.cn

Tel: +86 21 5812 9888

Building

University EMBA

Tel: +86 21 5230 1598

Fax:+86 21 5812 9000

3 Zhongshan 2nd Road

www.olin.wustl.edu/shanghai

Fax: +86 21 5230 3357

British International School

Guangzhou, PRC

(English)

aemba@sjtu.edu.cn

Shanghai - Pudong Campus

Tel: +86 20 8762 0508

www.fdms.edu.cn/olin (Chinese)

www.bisshanghai.com

International Schools

Fax: +86 20 3762 0543

Room 710, 670 Guoshun Road

info.gz@harrissec.com.cn

Shanghai, China, 200433

600 Cambridge Forest New Town, Lane 2729 Hunan Road,

Hong Kong Office

Tel: +86 21 5566 4788

Pudong

7/F, Hong Kong Trade Centre

Fax: +86 21 6565 4103

Tel: +86 21 5812 7455

161-167 Des Voeux Road Central

Hotels

Hong Kong, PRC Tel: +852 2541 6632

Shanghai

Fax: +852 2541 9339

Grand Mercure Hongqiao

info@harrissec.com.hk

Airlines

Harrow International School

Shanghai

Manchester Business School

Beijing

www.grandmercurehongqiao.com

Part-time Global MBA

www.harrowbeijing.cn

369 Xian Xia Road, Chang Ning

Beijing

http://china.portals.mbs.ac.uk

No. 5, 4th Block, Anzhenxili

Shanghai

Lufthansa German Airlines

Starts September 2013,

Chaoyang, Beijing 100029

Tel: +86 21 5153 3300

Beijing Office

Shanghai

PRC

Fax: +86 21 5153 3555

September 2013

67


LISTING reservation@

Shanghai

9/F Huali Building, 58 Jinbao

Residences

grandmercurehongqiao-shanghai.

Tel: +86 021 2326 7999

Street, Dongcheng

enquiry.lpjq@lansonplace.com

com

Fax: +86 021 2326 7998

Tel: +86 10 8520 6000

No. 27 & 28, Lane 399 Zao

Starwood Asia Pacific Hotels

Marketing_China@cn.adp.com

Fax: +86 10 8520 6060

Zhuang Road, Pudong, Shanghai

& Resorts PTE. Ltd. Shanghai

Hudson Recruitment

Office

(Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

www.starwoodhotels.com

2302-2303, 2201-2206 Hongyi

19/F Phase 1 Huanmao Building

International Plaza, 288 Jiujiang

Savills Residence Century Park

999 Huaihai Road Central,

Road, Shanghai

www.savillsresidence.com

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 2321 7888

No. 1703, Lane 1883, Huamu

Tel: +86 21 6141 7799

shresume@hudson.com

Road Pudong, Shanghai 201303,

Fax: +86 21 6391 8220 The Leading Hotels of the

200136

Real Estate/ Serviced Apartments

PRC Tel: +86 21 5013 3888 Fax: +86 21 5013 3666

Real Estate/ Business Park

PRC

Language Schools

Tel: +86 21 5197 6688 info@savillsresidence.com

World, Ltd. Shanghai Rep. Office www.lhw.com 501A Shanghai Center, 1376 Nanjing Road West, Shanghai Tel: +86 21 6279 8951 Fax: +86 21 6279 8952

HR/Recruitment

Sandhill Plaza MandarinKing

www.sandhillplaza.cn

www.mandarinking.cn

2290 Zuchongzhi Rd, Zhangjiang

Beijing

Shanghai

Park View Apartment

Hi-Tech Park, Shanghai 201303

Beijing Deco Personal Services

No.555 West Nanjing Road,

wwww.parkview-sh.com

Tel: +86 21 6075 2555

Ltd.

Room 1207 12th Floor, Plaza

Block 1-4, No. 888

Leasing@sandhill.cn

china.adecco.com

555 Shanghai, PRC

Changning Road

Shenyang

D 9/F Tower II China Central

Course Inquiry: 400 618 6685

Shanghai, 200042

Shenyang International

Place, 79 Jianguo Road,

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 1063

Tel: +86 21 5241 8028

Software Park

Chaoyang, Beijing

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 8671

leasing@parkview-sh.com

No.860-1 Shangshengou,

Tel: +86 010 5920 4320

study@mandarinking.cn

Belvedere Service Apartments

Dongling, Shenyang City,

www.belvedere.com.cn

Liaoning Province, 110167

Fax: +86 010 5920 4322 beijing.cn@adecco.com

68

PR Agencies

Belvedere Service Apartments

Tel: +86 24 8378 0500

Guangdong

Ketchum Newscan Public

833 Changning Road, Shanghai

Fax: +86 24 8378 0528

Levin Human Resources

Relations

200050

Development (Guangzhou) Ltd.

www.ketchum.com

Tel: +86 21 6213 2222

www.levin.com.hk

Shanghai

Fax: +86 21 6251 0000

V15 4/F Goldlion Digital Network

218 Tianmu Road West

leasing@belvedere.com.cn

Center, 138 Tiyu Road East,

Tel: +86 21 6353 2288

Lanson Place Central Park

Tianhe, Guangzhou, Guangdong

Fax: +86 21 6353 2276

Residences

Tel: +86 020 2886 0665

Beijing

enquiry.lpcp@lansonplace.com

Fax: +86 020 3878 1801

A6, Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

Tower 23, Central Park

info@levin.com.hk

Chaoyang

No. 6 Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

Shanghai

Tel: +86 10 5907 0055

Chaoyang, Beijing 100020

Shanghai Jiatinghui Property

ADP China

Fax: +86 10 5907 0188

Tel: +86 10 8588 9588

Development Co., Ltd

www.adpchina.com

Ogilvy Group

Fax: +86 10 8588 9599

www.antinganting.com.cn

30/F Golden Bell Plaza, 98

www.ogilvy.com

Shanghai

Life Hub @ Anting No 1033

Huaihai Road Central

Beijing

Lanson Place Jin Qiao Serviced

Moyu Rd S, Anting, Shanghai

September 2013

Real Estate/HOPSCA


Tel: +86 21 6950 2255

BEIJING (12 LOCATIONS)

15/F One Corporate Avenue

Fax: +86 21 6950 2833

Regus China World Tower 3

222 Hubin Road

jean.liu@chongbang.com

15/F China World Tower 3,

Luwan District

1 Jianguomenwai Avenue

Regus Jin Mao Tower

Chaoyang District

31/F Jin Mao Tower

CHENDU (3 LOCATIONS)

88 Shiji Avenue

Regus Yanlord Landmark

Lujiazui, Pudong

Apollo Business Center

36/F, Yanlord Landmark Office

Regus One Prime

Apollo Huaihai Center [New]

Tower

25 F, One Prime

4/F, Fuxing Commercial Building

No.1, Section 2, Renmin South

No. 360, Wu Jin Road,

139 Ruijin Road (No.1)

Road

Hongkou District,

Huangpu

Serviced Offices

Jinjiang District

SHENZHEN (5 LOCATIONS)

Shanghai

Vantone Commercial Center

CHONGQING

Regus Futian NEO

Tel: 021-6136-6088

www.VantoneCommercialCenter.

Regus Yangtze River

44/F, NEO Tower A

Apollo Flagship Center

com

International Plaza

6011 Shennan Avenue

Apollo Building

Level 26 & 27, Tower D, Vantone

33/F Yangtze River International

Futian District

1440 Yan’an Road (M)

Center, No 6 Chaowai Ave

Plaza

Regus New World Centre

Jing’an

Chaoyang, Beijing

22 Nanbin Road

(NEW)

Shanghai

Tel: +86 10 5905 5905

Nanan District

23/F, New World Center,

Tel: 021-6133-1888

The Executive Centre

DALIAN

No. 6009, Yitian Road,

Apollo Tomson Center

Shanghai

Regus Dalian World Trade

Futian District

22/F, Tomson Commercial

International Finance Centre

Center

SUZHOU

Building

Level 8, International Finance

12/F, 25 Tongxing Street

Regus Suzhou JinHope plaza

710 Dongfang Road

Center, 8 Century Avenue

Zhongshan District

(COMING SOON)

Pudong

Pudong

GUANGZHOU (5 LOCATIONS)

11/F, Tower2, Jin Hope Plaza

Shanghai

CITIC Square

Regus G.T. Land Plaza (NEW)

88 Hua Chi Street, SIP

Tel: 021-6165-2288

Level 35, CITIC Square, 1168

12/F, Tower A, Phase 1

TIANJIN (2 LOCATIONS)

Apollo Xuhui Center

Nanjing West Road, Jing’an

G.T. Land Plaza, No. 85

Regus Tianjin Centre

16/F, Feidiao International Building

Xintiandi

Huacheng Avenue

8/F Tianjin Centre

1065 Zhaojiabang Road

Level 5, Xintiandi, 159 Madang

Tian He District

No.219 Nanjing Road

Xuhui

Road, Luwan

HANGZHOU (4 LOCATIONS)

Heping District

Shanghai

The Centre

Regus Euro American Centre

WUHAN

Tel: 021-5158-1688

Level 20,The Centre, 989

4/F Euro America Center

Regus Wuhan Tiandi –

Apollo Hongqiao Center

Changle Road, Xuhui

18 Jiaogong Road,

Corporate Centre 5

26/F, New Town Center Building

Chong Hing Finance Centre

Xihu District

8F, Wuhan Tiandi – Corporate

83 Loushanguan Road

Level 12, Chonghing Finance

NANJING

Center 5, No. 1628 Zhong Shan

Changning

Centre, 288 Nanjing West Road,

Regus Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Avenue

Shanghai

Huangpu

Tower (COMING SOON)

Jiang’an District

Tel: 021-3133-2688

Tel: +86 21 6062 7183

8 F, Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Shanghai@executivecentre.com

Tower, No. 2, Hanzhong Road,

To have your company featured in these pages, please contact our

Gulou District

representatives at:

SHANGHAI (21 LOCATIONS)

ྙሯఓࡿਣ৛ႊቧᇦLj஺༿ೊᇹྙሆঌᐊཽǖ

Regus Plaza 66

ᎆୈ Email: marketing@sinomedia.net

15/F, Tower 2, Plaza 66,

࢟જ Tel: +86 21 53859061

No.1266, West Nanjing Road,

2205, Shanghai Plaza, No.138 Huaihaizhong Rd, Shanghai, China, 200021

Jing’an District

ᒦਪ࿟਱ှઠ਱ᒦവ138੓࿟਱ਓ‫ޝ‬2205 ᎆ‫ܠ‬ǖ200021

Regus One Corporate Avenue

September 2013

69


APRIL 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 4 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

2013ฤ4Ꮬఓ

Looking for a green future ࿡ᅻ੻೬େჿ

*MMVT TUSBUPS喟5 5XPR RF RFF FF F

፝ၮ/࢟ᔇ‫ࢿۈ‬Ꮮ‫ܭ‬

FOCUS: COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

‫׶א‬ఢӢᄤ‫ه‬৷ ๶ҌԴᄈᇗ‫ݛ‬ ၌‫ۇ‬๴௭९

Subscription Form ŕᆸገࢿᏞ፝ၮ0࢟ᔇ‫ۈ‬Ꮽᒔ/ I wish to subscribe to China Economic Review Magazine

༿ኡᐋࢿᏞಢܰ/Please tick your geographical area (prices include postage):

ጙฤ12໐/1 year - 12 issues

औฤ24໐/2 years - 24 issues

ŕ࢟ᔇ‫ۈ‬Web Access: RMB900 / US$150 ŕᒦਪࡍ഻China: RMB960 / US$160 ŕሧভHong Kong: RMB1,080 / US$180 ŕRest of Asia: RMB1,440 / US$240 ŕRest of the world: RMB1,800 / US$300

ŕ࢟ᔇ‫ۈ‬Web Access: RMB1,620 / US$270 ŕᒦਪࡍ഻China: RMB1,728 / US$288 ŕሧভHong Kong: RMB1,944 / US$324 ŕRest of Asia: RMB2,592 / US$432 ŕRest of the world: RMB3,240 / US$540

ቷ෗/Name

ቶܰ/Sex

ਪ૸/Nationality

৛ႊ෗/Company Name  ࢟જ/Tel

ᒆᆡ/Job Title ࠅᑞ0Fax

࢟ᎆ/Email Address



ਪଜ/Country

ᎆᑶ‫ܠ‬൩/Postal Code



Ꮽᒔ࢕႙࢐ᒍ/Delivery Address ߃ှ/City

ᑽঈऱါ/Payment Methods ŕቧ፿ఌ/Please charge to my credit card ఌ੓/Card Number:

ŕVisaŕMastercardMastercard Secure Code:



ŕJCBŕAmex

ŕŕŕŕŕŕŕŕŕŕŕŕŕŕŕŕ

໽෗/Signature:

ቧ፿ఌ໐ሢ/Card expiry date: 

CVV: 

BANK TRANSFER ፖቲᓞᑃ(an extra $8 fee is required for the service outside of Mainland China and Hong Kong) If pay by bank transfer, please contact our staff for more details. ྙኊᓞᑂ૞ገཇጲ໚Ⴧᑽঈऱါ৪൰Lj༿ᒇ୻Ꭷᆸඣࡼሤਈঌᐊཽೊᇹă

NEED MORE CHINA BUSINESS INFORMATION? Check our latest business guides and directories at chinaeconomicreview.com/store or sinomedia.net

CHINA • MEETINGS • INCENTIVES • CONFERENCES • EVENTS

OFFSHORE

The most comprehensive hotel listing and event planning resource in China

FINANCE GUIDE

2012-2013

20 201 01 0 12

ᇗ‫ݛ‬

৞ωࣉಽᇗྗ ᆿ଺

CHINA

2013

OFFSHORE 2013

FINANCE GUIDE ᇗ‫ݛ‬৞ωࣉಽᇗྗᆿ଺ A complete guide to

⁔≟MBAᠴࢄ The definitive guide to doing business in China

A complete guide to

Please complete this form and fax it back to China Economic Review Publishing Ltd. Or send an email to subscriptions@chinaeconomicreview.com Tel: +86 21 5187 9633 ext. 864, Fax: +86 21 5385 8953 ༿ᔄᇼᄘቖጲ࿟‫ৃܭ‬৉ሲ౺෹Lj݀ࠅᑞࡵǖ+86 21 5385 8953 ૞ᎆୈᒗsubscriptions@chinaeconomicreview.com 70

September 2013

2013

2012

The definitive guide to doing business in China

2013

͚పMBAᠴࢄ

2012

ࡄ㒻ᠴࢄ


CER September 2013  

China Economic Review 中经评论

Read more
Read more
Similar to
Popular now
Just for you