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Education, Learning & Leisure

EDUCATION, LEARNING & LEISURE COMMITTEE – 29 MAY 2014 2013 SCHOOL ROLL FORECASTS 1

Recommendations: The Committee is recommended to:1.1

Acknowledge the contents of this report;

1.2

Agree to further reports on detailed implications being brought back to Committee as and when necessary; and

1.3

Agree to this report being circulated to Area Committees for their comments.

2

Discussion

2.1

Purpose of Report This report provides information requested by the Education, Learning and Leisure Committee regarding Aberdeenshire Council’s school roll forecasts, the method used to obtain these forecasts, comments on their accuracy and provides analysis of the data.

2.2

Background This report updates the report on School Roll Forecasts which was presented to the Education, Learning and Leisure Committee in August 2013, which was based on the 2012 forecasts. The forecasts are set out within the tables and graphs in Appendices 1-7 of this report.

2.3

Forecasting method

2.3.1 Summary School roll forecasts take as their starting point the current school population and then attempt to identify how that population may change over time. In doing so they take into account demographic factors such as change in the birth rate and changes to the school roll arising from pupil yield from new housing. They also build in information about school choices made as a result of placing requests submitted by parents/carers to enrol their children in a school other than the one they are zoned for, based on their address. In secondary schools staying-on rates for pupils entering 5th and 6th year are calculated. Finally, totals are compared to the overall population projections, produced by National Records of Scotland, for these age groups in Aberdeenshire.

Profile for Scolty Redevelopment

2013 - 2019 Aberdeenshire School Roll Forecasts  

Official data on the 2013 - 2019 Aberdeenshire school roll forecasts.

2013 - 2019 Aberdeenshire School Roll Forecasts  

Official data on the 2013 - 2019 Aberdeenshire school roll forecasts.

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