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security, political and economic stresses security stresses internal •

mistrust of other groups, security forces legacies of violence and trauma

political stresses

external • • • • • •


international criminal networks trafficking, esp. drugs, arms, minerals invasion/occupatio n external support for rebels cross-border conflict spillovers transnational terrorism


ethnic, religious or regional competition real or perceived discrimination, exclusion human rights abuses

• •

great power competition, patronage perceived global inequity, hypocrisy

economic stresses internal • • • •

low incomes, income inequality youth unemployment competition over land, natural resources severe corruption

external • • • •

global economic shocks predatory resource extraction donor economic ideologies natural disasters


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