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The Summit Reaching Even Greater Heights June 13-14, 2013


Presented By:

Welcome to Dear Client:

The Summit

Welcome to The Summit 2013. This is where the smartest people I know get together to discuss and debate how to invest in a very cyclical industry—housing. Each year we publish our view of the consensus, and last year we published five key conclusions: 1. Entitled raw land is the best investment. 2. Mortgage rates will rise to 5% by 2015, with securities investors projecting lower rates. 3. The risk of a downturn is very low. 4. Good job growth is more important than low interest rates. 5. National home prices should rise 3–4% per year. Collectively, I think we did a great job making accurate conclusions and giving everyone the assurance they needed to invest aggressively over the last year. As many of you know, The Summit is about making connections with very smart people so you can be more informed than everyone else. We purposefully engage an exclusive group of industry experts from our diverse client base in this interactive format—bringing forth timely topics that keep us connected to what is relevant, so that we walk away with something actionable. This year’s conference has been carefully planned to ensure you have a great experience. You can look forward to: –– Approximately 60 housing industry experts, including the senior team at our firm –– Six panel discussions and five roundtable discussions around timely housing topics –– Networking cocktail, lunch and dinner in an amazing location And, in keeping with our theme of making connections and staying informed, we have provided you with a Roku HD in your welcome bag. The Roku HD is a mobile streaming device that you can connect to any TV when you also have a simple WiFi connection. While at home or on the road, you can use Roku to access news like CBNC, Fox, or WSJ TV, or entertainment like Netflix, Hulu Plus, HBO GO, Spotify, MLB.TV, Crackle, or Pandora. In all, this mobile device gives you 750 channels, so that staying informed and making connections will be easy—whether you’re at home or on the road, including here at The Summit! Once again, welcome to The Summit 2013! I am glad that you are able to join us and hope that your experience is both rejuvenating and educational. Sincerely,

John Burns, CEO


Day 1

Thursday, June 13, 2013 7:00 am 7:15 am 8:30 am 9:15 am 9:45 am 12:10 pm 1:10 pm 5:00 pm 5:30 pm 6:30 pm

– – – – – – – – – –

Continental Breakfast – Gallery Ballroom foyer Registration Opens – Gallery Ballroom Welcome & Introductions – Gallery Ballroom John Burns Presentation & Survey Panels & Roundtable Discussions Lunch – Studio Lawn South Panels & Roundtable Discussions Day 1 Summary Cocktails – Ocean Lawn Dinner – Pacific Lawn

8:15 am 8:15 am 9:15 am 9:45 am 12:10 pm 1:10 pm 5:00 pm 5:30 pm 6:30 pm 8:30 pm

Day 2 Friday, June 14, 2013 7:15 am 8:30 am 11:15 am 11:30 am

– – –

8:15 am 11:15 am 11:30 am

Breakfast – Gallery Ballroom foyer Panels & Roundtable Discussions– Gallery Ballroom Summary, Wrap Up & Final Comments Adjourn


Panel Discussions 1. PRIVATE EQUITY 2. LAND DEVELOPMENT How has investing changed since last year? Is it a Sustainable Business, or Do I Just Need to Time it Right? DISCUSSION LEADERS: 1. Paul Fuhrman, Colony Capital 2. Tony Avila, Encore Housing 3. Gary Berman, Tricon Capital Group


3. MORTGAGE INDUSTRY Mortgage policy, the Return of MBS, and Future Interest Rates DISCUSSION LEADERS:

Adrian Foley, Brookfield Residential Tom Hoban, Kitson & Partners Phillip Huffines, Huffines Communities Emile Haddad, Five Points Communities

1. 2. 3. 4.

Brian Hale, Stearns Lending Jeremy Radack, Radack & Associates Keri Findley, Third Point Lawrence Rufrano, Federal Reserve

4. T  ODAY’S HOME BUYER 5. DEBT & EQUITY How Deep is the Demand? Is it a Moveup How does having Public Capital versus Market? What Differentiates New Homes? Private Capital change the game?

6.  CONSTRUCTION What has changed with respect to land, labor, materials and regulation?



1. Doug Bauer, TRIPoint Homes 2. Rob Bowman, Charter Homes 3. Greg Schwartz, Zillow

DISCUSSION LEADERS: 1. Jason Keller, Oaktree Capital 2. Matthew Zaist, William Lyon Homes 3. Ryan Mollett, GSO Capital Partners

1. Steve Hilton, Meritage Homes 2. Mark Boutelle, Illinois Tool Works 3. Eric Lipar, LGI Homes

Roundtable Discussions 1. LAND BUYING What are the right strategies in 2013? DISCUSSION LEADERS: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.

Robert Vahradian, GTIS Alan Norris, Brookfield Residential Steve Benson, Community Development Capital Group Andy Carmody, Crescent Resources Rick Lafferty, Lafferty Communities Tom Orradre, Isles Ranch Partners Paige Shipp, JBREC Mollie Carmichael, JBREC Lesley Deutch, JBREC Ken Perlman, JBREC Pete Reeb, JBREC

3. GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES How to Make the Most Money. DISCUSSION LEADERS: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.

Jay Moss, Woodside Group Dallas Tanner, Blackstone/Invitation Homes Chris Texter, KTGY Group Brian Nelsen, The Carlyle Group David Jackson, Kempner Capital Jay Kwan, International Partners Viva Hyatt, Sankaty Advisors Lisa Jackson, JBREC Susan Bloomfield, JBREC Lance Ramella, JBREC Nicole Murray, JBREC

2.  ASSUMPTIONS How much price appreciation and cost inflation do I believe will occur? DISCUSSION LEADERS: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.

Ben Williams, Brookfield Investment Management Gary Freeman, GEM Realty Capital Kevin Hackler, TPG Credit Management Tina Cruce, Tim Lewis Lisa Marquis Jackson, JBREC Dan Schwaegler, Starwood Capital Kev Zoryan, Morgan Stanley Don Walker, JBREC Steve Dutra, JBREC Sean Fergus, JBREC David Kalosis, JBREC

4. EXIT STRATEGY Top 10 Signs You Should Reduce Your Exposure to the Business – 10 Quantitative and 10 Anecdotal (write it down to speed up the process)

DISCUSSION LEADERS: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.

Rich Ambrosini, D.R. Horton Tim Hogan, Hogan Edgcomb Consulting Megan Leahey, Fidelity Investments Jim Warmington, Jr., The Warmington Group Bret Kossman, Bank of America Nihar Shah, PFM Brandon Osmon, Hayman Capital Management David Hatch, Development Company Keith Tomlinson, Dominion Homes Nate Redleaf, Luxor Capital Kyle Corkum, Lstar Management

The Summit


The Summit


Meet Our Experts Trusted Analysis for Executive Decisions

PETE REEB Sr. Vice President Consulting

KEN PERLMAN Sr. Vice President Consulting

LESLEY DEUTCH Sr. Vice President Consulting

JODY KAHN Sr. Vice President Research

LANCE RAMELLA Sr. Vice President Consulting

WILL FRANK Senior Manager Consulting/Finance

CHRIS PORTER Senior Manager Consulting

PAIGE SHIPP Senior Manager Consulting

PAUL FAYE Senior Manager Consulting

GREG TSUJIMOTO Manager Consulting

CYNTHIA LAGUNA Manager, Accounting Finance

ADAM ARTUNIAN Sr. Research Analyst Research

KATHLEEN RIPLEY Senior Consultant Consulting

KRISTIN MATTHEWS Senior Consultant Consulting

MIKE WILLINGER Consultant Consulting

TORI MASSIE Research Analyst Consulting

ANDREW ANGELES Jr. Research Analyst Research

KATHY AYUYAO SAMANTHA WAGNER KRISTIN DELMASTRO Sr. Manager, Administrative Manager, Administrative Administrative Assistant Operations Operations Operations


DAVID KALOSIS Sr. Vice President Consulting

SEAN FERGUS Manager Research

ALI WOLF Research Analyst Research

JUDY JOBIN Administrator Business Development

DON WALKER President Consulting

MOLLIE CARMICHAEL Principal Consulting

DEAN WEHRLI Vice President Consulting

RICK PALACIOS JR. Manager Research

KYLE ZIERER Research Associate Consulting

LISA M. JACKSON Sr. Vice President Research

STEVE DUTRA Sr. Vice President Research

CHRIS CAGAN Vice President Research

SUSAN BLOOMFIELD Vice President Marketing

NICOLE MURRAY Vice President Consulting

ERIK FRANKS Manager, Info Mgmt Research

HOWARD TRAN Manager Marketing

KELLEY SANCHEZ Manager, Database Research

TED BEAM Production Editor Research

RAINA HEMRAJ Research Associate Research

ANDREW DURKEE Research Data Analyst Research



The Summit 2013  

The Summit 2013 Program

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