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W

R EE E K L Y P O R T

10 SEPT - 13 SEPT 2013

Buy on fear, sell on greed.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

The trend is your friend.

Amateurs want to be right.

Professionals want to make money.


MARKET OUTLOOK

MARKET EVENTS

The rupee rallied for a second consecutive session on Friday to its strongest against the dollar in nearly two weeks on growing expectations the currency has been badly oversold, even as few traders expect a meaningful recovery. Sentiment has also improved since Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan unveiled a slew of proposals to support the rupee and open up markets on Wednesday, providing a breath of fresh air for investors unnerved by the country's worst economic crisis in two decades. India's foreign exchange reserves have dipped to $275.5 billion, a 39-month low, as Reserve Bank of India continued to sell dollars to support the battered local currency.

 Forex reserves dip to $275 billion as RBI tries to stem rupee fall.  India's forex reserves dip to three-year low.  Rupee hits near two-week high; worst may be behind.  Yuan headed for flat week; PBOC wants stability amid emerging market rout.

CURRENCIES USDINR

PREVIOUS

CURRENT

RATE

RATE

66.7275

65.7050

KEY RATES As on 06/09/2013 % CHANGE -1.53

EURINR

88.2625

86.1050

-2.44

GBPINR

103.4850

102.2450

-1.19

JPYINR

67.9500

65.9200

-2.98

REFERENCE RATE (USD)

65.9600

REPO RATE

7.25%

REVERSE REPO

6.25%

CRR

4%

INFLATION

5.79%


USDINR

USDINR last week found support around the trend line on daily charts while it may further fall towards 50% retracement of 64.2500 if it holds below this trend line. And if it shows any pull back towards higher side then resistance range is seen around 67.2000. Volatility is expected due to IIP data in the coming week.

EURINR

EURINR last week showed bearish movements in the last few sessions and is expected to continue this in the coming week and on surpassing the support of trend line around 85.4000 it may further fall towards the major support 83.1000. If it shows some correction then resistance range is seen around 86.5000-87.5000.


PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

64.6000

63.1000

61.7500

66.8000

68.0000

69.2000

EURINR

85.4000

83.8000

82.3000

87.5000

89.4000

91.1000

GBPINR

101.0000

99.0000

97.3000

104.0500

105.4000

107.5000

JPYINR

64.5500

63.5000

62.3000

66.8000

68.0000

69.2000

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES  Yen Slides as Olympics Boosts Abe Optimism; Aussie Gains.  Russia to Brazil Intervention Adds to U.S. Debt Distress.  Australia Dollar Rises to Three-Week High on China Rebound Signs.

DATE

TIME

COUNTRY

EVENT

BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE

PREVIOUS LEVEL

12-Sept-2013

-

INDIA

IIP

-

-

12-Sept-2013

06:00 PM

US

Unemployment Claims

332k

323k

13-Sept-2013

06:00 PM

US

Core Retail Sales

0.3%

0.5%

13-Sept-2013

06:00 PM

US

PPI

0.2%

0.0%


DISCLAIMER

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Currency weekly trend 10 sept 13