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European Government Budgets

Yardeni Research, Inc.

June 14, 2012

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com

Sailesh S Radha 803-786-1368 sradha@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

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Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

Debt to GDP: EU Debt to GDP: France Expenditure to GDP: EU Revenues to GDP: EU Revenues & Expenditures to GDP: France Fiscal Balance: EU Fiscal Balance: France Fiscal Balance: France, Germany Fiscal Balance: Italy, Spain Fiscal Balance: UK Current Fiscal Balance: Europe Primary Balance: Europe

June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

1 2 3 4 5 6-7 8 9 10 11 12-13 14-15

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- Debt to GDP: EU Figure 1. 200

EU GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT*

Latest data as of 2011

200

(percent of GDP)

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

125

85.7 68.5

100

75

40.2

53.9

61.2

79.6

82.3 83.0 69.6

79.2 74.4 54.8

68.2 66.7

150

85.8 81.2

118.6

116.0

105.7

103.1 39.7 43.4

50

36.3 44.4

64.2 65.2

63.7 68.1 43.2 42.5

75

66.4 68.6

100

UK

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105.4

125

106.1

150

175

120.1

175

50

25

25

0

0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* General Government Gross Debt is the sum of Central Government Gross Debt, Local Government Gross Debt and Social Security Funds Debt. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/Haver Analytics.

Figure 2. 140 130

140

EU GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT* (percent of GDP)

130

120

120

110

110

100

100

90

2011

90

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

France Germany Italy Spain UK

30 20 10

30 20 10 yardeni.com

0 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

2012

* General Government Gross Debt is the sum of Central Government Gross Debt, Local Government Gross Debt and Social Security Funds Debt. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/Haver Analytics.

Page 1 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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- Debt to GDP: France Figure 3. 100

FRENCH GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT*

Latest data as of 2011

100

(percentage of GDP)

79.2

80

62.9 56.9

66.4

85.8 80

68.2 63.7

64.2

58.8

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60

64.9

82.3

40

20

60

40

20

0

0 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* General Government Gross Debt is the sum of Central Government Gross Debt, Local Government Gross Debt and Social Security Funds Debt. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/Haver Analytics.

Page 2 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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- Expenditure to GDP: EU Figure 4. 100 90

EU GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES*

Latest data as of 2011

(percentage of GDP)

80

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

100 90 80

UK

55.9 45.6 49.9 43.6 49.0

47.9 50.5 45.6 50.3

56.6

56.8 48.1 51.9 46.3 51.5

53.3 44.0 48.6 41.5 47.8

52.6 43.5 47.6 39.2 43.9

38.4

40

44.2

53.0 45.3 48.5

38.4

44.1

46.9 47.9

50

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60

70 53.6

70

60 50 40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* General Government Gross Expenditures is the sum of Central Government Gross Expenditures, Local Government Gross Expenditures and Social Security Funds Expenditures. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/Haver Analytics.

Figure 5. 60

60

EU GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES* (percent of GDP)

2011 55

55

50

50

45

45

40

40

France Germany Italy Spain UK

35

35

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30 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

30

2012

* General Government Gross Expenditures is the sum of Central Government Gross Expenditures, Local Government Gross Expenditures and Social Security Funds Expenditures. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/Haver Analytics.

Page 3 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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- Revenues to GDP: EU Figure 6. 90

EU GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES*

90

Latest data as of 2011

(percentage of GDP) 80

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

70

80

70

UK

35.1

40.8

50.7 44.7 46.1

49.5 43.6 46.0

36.3 40.2

35.1

40.1

49.2 44.9 46.5

37.0

42.9

49.9 44.0 45.9

49.9 43.7 46.0 41.1 41.1

43.7 45.0 40.7 41.5

43.6 43.4 39.7 40.7

40

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50

50.6

60 50.6

60

50

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* General Government Gross Revenues is the sum of Central Government Gross Revenues, Local Government Gross Revenues and Social Security Funds Expenditures. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/Haver Analytics.

Figure 7. 55

55

EU GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES* (percent of GDP)

2011

50

50

45

45

40

40

France Germany Italy Spain UK

35

35

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30 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

30

2012

* General Government Gross Revenues is the sum of Central Government Gross Revenues, Local Government Gross Revenues and Social Security Funds Revenues. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/Haver Analytics.

Page 4 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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- Revenues & Expenditures to GDP: France Figure 8. 60

FRENCH GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES*

60

Latest data as of 2011

(percentage of GDP) 50

50.6

50.6

49.9

49.9

49.2

49.5

50.7 50

40

40 yardeni.com

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* General Government Gross Revenues is the sum of Central Government Gross Revenues, Local Government Gross Revenues and Social Security Funds Expenditures. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/Haver Analytics.

Figure 9. 70

FRENCH GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES*

70

Latest data as of 2011

(percentage of GDP) 60

56.8 53.6

53.0

52.6

56.6

60 55.9

53.3

50

50

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40

30

40

30

20

20

10

10

0

0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* General Government Gross Expenditures is the sum of Central Government Gross Expenditures, Local Government Gross Expenditures and Social Security Funds Expenditures. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/Haver Analytics.

Page 5 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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- Fiscal Balance: EU Figure 10. 9

EU GENERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE*

9

Latest data as of 2011

(percent of GDP)

Germany

Italy

Spain

6

UK

3

0.2

1.3

3

France

1.9

2.4

6

-1.0 -3.8 -8.5 -8.2

-9.3 -10.1

-11.2 -11.4

-12

-5.2

-4.3 -4.5

-7.6

-9

-3

-6

-7.1

-5.4

-4.5 -5.0

-3.2

-2.7

-3.3

-2.7

-1.6

-2.8

-2.7

-2.4 -1.7 -3.4

-3.4

-3.0 -3.3 -4.5

-6

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-3

0

-0.1

0

-9

-12

-15

-15 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* General Government Gross Balance is the sum of Central Government Budget Balance, Local Government Budget Balance and Social Security Funds Budget Balance. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/Haver Analytics.

Figure 11. 6

6

EU GENERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE* (percent of GDP)

3

3

0

0

-3

-3 2011

-6

-6

France Germany Italy Spain UK

-9

-12

-9

-12

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-15 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-15

2012

* General Government Gross Balance is the sum of Central Government Budget Balance, Local Government Budget Balance and Social Security Funds Budget Balance. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/Haver Analytics.

Page 6 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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- Fiscal Balance: EU Figure 12. 115

115

EU GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES* (percent of Expenditures)

110

110

105

105

100

100

95

95 2011

90

France Germany Italy Spain UK

85

80

90

85

80

75

75 yardeni.com

70 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

70

2012

* General Government Gross Revenues is the sum of Central Government Gross Revenues/ Expenditures, Local Government Gross Revenues/Expenditures and Social Security Funds Revenues/Expenditures. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/Haver Analytics.

Page 7 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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- Fiscal Balance: France Figure 13. 2 1

FRENCH GENERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE

Latest data as of 2011

(percentage of GDP)

2 1

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-1.7

-2 yardeni.com

-2.4

-3

-2.8

-3.0

-3.3

-3.3

-3.6

-4 -4.1 -5

-3 -4 -5

-5.2 -6

-6

-7

-7 -7.1 -7.6

-8

-8

-9

-9 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* General Government Budget Balance is the sum of Central Government Budget Balance, Local Government Budget Balance and Social Security Funds Budget Balance. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/Haver Analytics.

Figure 14. 120 100 80 60

FRENCH GENERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE*

Latest data as of 2011

(percentage of GDP)

100

Revenues Expenditures

50.0%

49.6%

120

80

49.3%

49.6%

50.6%

50.6%

49.9%

49.9%

49.2%

49.5%

60

50.7%

40

40

20

20

0

0

-20

-20

-40

-40

-60

-51.7%

-52.9%

-53.4%

-53.3%

-53.6%

-53.0%

-52.6%

-53.3%

-56.8%

-56.6%

-55.9%

-60

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-80 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-80

2012

* General Government Gross Budget Balance is the sum of Central Government Budget Balance, Local Government Budget Balance and Social Security Funds Budget Balance. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/Haver Analytics.

Page 8 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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- Fiscal Balance: France, Germany Figure 15. 4

FRENCH GENERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE*

Latest data as of 2011

4

(percentage of GDP) 2

Budget Balance

2

Primary Balance** 0.0 0

0 -0.3

-0.6 yardeni.com

-2 -2.4

-2.8

-2.9

-3.3

-4

-4.9

-5.3

-6

-2

-4

-5.2 -6

-7.1 -7.6

-8

-8

-10

-10 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* General Government Budget Balance is the sum of Central Government Budget Balance, Local Government Budget Balance and Social Security Funds Budget Balance. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. ** Primary Balance is Budget Balance excluding interest expenditures and is based on IMF estimates. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/IMF/Haver Analytics.

Figure 16. 6 5 4

GERMAN GENERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE*

Latest data as of 2011

(percentage of GDP)

6 5

Budget Balance Primary Balance**

4 2.7

3

3 2.3 2

2 yardeni.com

0.8

1

0.7 0.2

0 -0.1 -1 -2

-0.9

1 0 -1

-1.0

-1.7

-2 -2.1

-3

-3 -3.2

-4

-4 -4.3

-5

-5 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* General Government Budget Balance is the sum of Central Government Budget Balance, Local Government Budget Balance and Social Security Funds Budget Balance. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. ** Primary Balance is Budget Balance excluding interest expenditures and is based on IMF estimates. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/IMF/Haver Analytics.

Page 9 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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- Fiscal Balance: Italy, Spain Figure 17. 7

ITALIAN GENERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE*

Latest data as of 2011

7

6

(percentage of GDP)

6

5

Budget Balance

5

Primary Balance**

4

4

3.2

3

3

2.2

2

2 1.1

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0.8

1 0 -0.3

-1

-1.0 -1.6

-2

0 -1 -2

-3 -4

1

-3

-2.7 -3.4

-4

-3.8 -4.5

-5

-5

-5.4

-6

-6

-7

-7 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* General Government Budget Balance is the sum of Central Government Budget Balance, Local Government Budget Balance and Social Security Funds Budget Balance. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. ** Primary Balance is Budget Balance excluding interest expenditures and is based on IMF estimates. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/IMF/Haver Analytics.

Figure 18. 9

SPANISH GENERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE*

Latest data as of 2011

(percentage of GDP)

9

Budget Balance 6

3.3 3

6

Primary Balance** 2.4

3.0

3

1.9

-3

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0

-3.1 -4.5

-6

0

-3

-6 -6.6 -7.9

-9 -9.9

-9

-8.5

-9.3

-11.2

-12

-12

-15

-15 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* General Government Budget Balance is the sum of Central Government Budget Balance, Local Government Budget Balance and Social Security Funds Budget Balance. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. ** Primary Balance is Budget Balance excluding interest expenditures and is based on IMF estimates. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/IMF/Haver Analytics.

Page 10 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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- Fiscal Balance: UK Figure 19. 3

UK GENERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE*

Latest data as of 2011

(percentage of GDP)

3

Budget Balance 1

Primary Balance**

1

-1

-1 -1.1 -2.7

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-3

-1.1 -2.7 -3.3

-5

-5.0 -5.8

-7

-3

-5

-7 -7.4

-9

-8.2

-8.6

-9

-10.1

-11

-11

-11.4 -13

-13 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* General Government Budget Balance is the sum of Central Government Budget Balance, Local Government Budget Balance and Social Security Funds Budget Balance. The Accounting is based on the European System of National and Regional Accounts, abbreviated as ESA95 or sometimes 1995 ESA. ** Primary Balance is Budget Balance excluding interest expenditures and is based on IMF estimates. Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities/IMF/Haver Analytics.

Page 11 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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- Current Fiscal Balance: Europe Figure 20. 4

GENERAL GOVERNMENT FISCAL BALANCE: EUROPE

Latest data as of 2011

4

(percent of GDP)

Overall Fiscal Balance

2 0.7

Primary Fiscal Balance*

0.8

2

0 -1.0

0

-4

-6.6

-5.8

-5.3

-3.9

-4

-6

-2

-2.9

-2

-8

-10

France

Germany

Italy

-8.7

-8.5

-8

-6

Spain

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UK

-10

* Primary Balance is overall Fiscal Balance excluding interest expenditures and is based on IMF estimates. Source: IMF (via Fiscal Monitor).

Figure 21. 4

GENERAL GOVERNMENT FISCAL BALANCE: EU

Latest data as of 2011

4

(percent of GDP)

Overall Fiscal Balance

2 0.1

Primary Fiscal Balance* -0.2

0

0 -0.7

2

-2

-4

-5.0

-4

-4.0

-3.5

-2.3

-2

-6

-6.7

-6

-12

-10

-9.9

-10

-8 -9.2

-8

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Greece

Ireland

Netherlands

Portugal

Sweden

-12

* Primary Balance is overall Fiscal Balance excluding interest expenditures and is based on IMF estimates. Source: IMF (via Fiscal Monitor).

Page 12 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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- Current Fiscal Balance: Europe Figure 22. 18 16

GENERAL GOVERNMENT FISCAL BALANCE: EUROPE

Latest data as of 2011

(percent of GDP)

16 13.1

Overall Fiscal Balance Primary Fiscal Balance*

14 10.9

14

18

12

12

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0

-6

Austria

Belgium

-3.9

-2

-3.4

-1.0 -4.2

-4

-2.6

-2

-1.0

8

-0.8

10

-0.5

10

Denmark

-4 yardeni.com

Finland

Norway

-6

* Primary Balance is overall Fiscal Balance excluding interest expenditures and is based on IMF estimates. Source: IMF (via Fiscal Monitor).

Page 13 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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- Primary Balance: Europe Figure 23. Latest data as of 2011

(percent of GDP)

6

4

3.3

3.3

4

3.3

5 3.3

5

GENERAL GOVERNMENT PRIMARY FISCAL BALANCE*: EUROPE 3.3

6

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

0.8

1

0.8

2

0.8

2 0.8

3

0.8

3

1

-2.9

-3 -4

-1.1

-1.1

-1.1

-2

-1.1

-1.1

-0.6

-1

0 -0.3

0

-1 -2

2007

2009

-3

2008

2010

-4

2011 -6

-5

-4.9

-5.3

-5

-6 yardeni.com

-7

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

UK

-7

* Primary Balance is overall Fiscal Balance excluding interest expenditures and is based on IMF estimates. Source: IMF (via Fiscal Monitor).

Figure 24. Latest data as of 2011

(percent of GDP)

8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

4

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

4

3.9

3.9

3.9

6 3.9

6

GENERAL GOVERNMENT PRIMARY FISCAL BALANCE*: EU 3.9

8

-2.3

-4

-4.9

-6

-4.7

-4

-6

-8

-14

2007

2009

2008

2010

-8

2011

-10

-10.5

-10 -12

-1.6

-2

-1.6

-2

-1.6

0

-1.6

0

-1.6

2

-2.0

2

-12 yardeni.com

Greece

Ireland

Netherlands

Portugal

Sweden

-14

* Primary Balance is overall Fiscal Balance excluding interest expenditures and is based on IMF estimates. Source: IMF (via Fiscal Monitor).

Page 14 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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- Primary Balance: Europe Figure 25. GENERAL GOVERNMENT PRIMARY FISCAL BALANCE*: EUROPE

16

2010

20

16.1

2009

2008

16.1

2007

16.1

(percent of GDP)

16.1

Latest data as of 2011 16.1

20

16

2011

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

4

1.1

4 1.0

6.0

3.7

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

6.0

8

6.0

8

6.0

12

6.0

12

-8

-0.5 -2.4

-4

0 -1.9

0

-4

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Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

Norway

-8

* Primary Balance is overall Fiscal Balance excluding interest expenditures and is based on IMF estimates. Source: IMF (via Fiscal Monitor).

Page 15 / June 14, 2012 / European Government Budgets

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European Budget