Page 1

Euro Debt Crisis

Yardeni Research, Inc.

July 1, 2012

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com

Sailesh S Radha 803-786-1368 sradha@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box


Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

EURO Area MFIs’ Exposure to Government Debt Bank Exposure to: PIIGS, Greece Bank Exposure to: Ireland, Italy Bank Exposure to: Portugal, Spain Quarterly Change in Bank Exposure to: PIIGS, Greece Quarterly Change in Bank Exposure to: Ireland, Italy Quarterly Change in Bank Exposure to: Portugal, Spain Quarterly Change in Bank Exposure to: PIIGS, Greece Quarterly Change in Bank Exposure to: Ireland, Italy Quarterly Change in Bank Exposure to: Portugal, Spain Bank Exposure to: PIIGS Bank Exposure Sector wise to: PIIGS, Greece Bank Exposure Sector wise to: Ireland, Italy Bank Exposure Sector wise to: Portugal, Spain Bank Exposure to PIIGS: Belgium, France Bank Exposure to PIIGS: Germany, Switzerland Bank Exposure to PIIGS: UK Money Aggregates: Euro Area, France Money Aggregates: Germany, Greece Money Aggregates: Ireland, Italy Money Aggregates: Portugal, Spain EU Money Aggregates: M2, M3 Non-Performing Loans: Spain Spain’s Exposure to Spanish Sovereign Debt Italy’s Exposure to Italian Sovereign Debt ECB Lending ECB Lending to Credit Institutions of: France, Germany ECB Lending to Credit Institutions of: Italy, Spain Net ECB Lending to Credit Institutions of: France, Germany Net ECB Lending to Credit Institutions of: Italy, Spain External Debt: PIIGS,France External Debt: Germany, Greece External Debt: Ireland, Italy External Debt: Portugal, Spain External Debt: UK External Debt: EU Deposits: Greece Deposits: Italy

1-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

continued...

July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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Deposits: Spain Emergency Liquidity Assistance: ECB Eurosystem TARGET2 Balances Balance of Payments: France Balance of Payments: Germany Balance of Payments: Italy Balance of Payments: Spain Euro Area Private Lending

July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

40 41 42-43 44 45 46 47 48-49

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- EURO Area MFIs’ Exposure to Government Debt Figure 1. 700

700

OUTSTANDING EXPOSURE TO EURO AREA GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT (billion euros)

600

MFIs* (ex ESCB**) __________________

600

German Spanish 500

500

French Italian

400

400

Mar

300

300

200

200

100

100

yardeni.com

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

2012

* Monetary Financial Institutions include credit institutions and money market funds. ** European System of Central Banks. Source: European Central Bank.

Figure 2. 120

120

OUTSTANDING EXPOSURE TO EURO AREA GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT: (billion euros)

MFIs* (ex ESCB**) __________________ 100

100

Greek Irish Portugese

80

80

60

60

40

40

Mar 20

20

yardeni.com

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

2012

* Monetary Financial Institutions include credit institutions and money market funds. ** European System of Central Banks. Source: European Central Bank.

Page 1 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- EURO Area MFIs’ Exposure to Government Debt Figure 3. 900

900

OUTSTANDING EXPOSURE TO EURO AREA GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT (billion euros)

800

MFIs* (ex ESCB**) __________________

800

French & German Spanish & Italian 700

700

600

600 Mar

500

500

400

400

300

300

yardeni.com

200 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

200

2012

* Monetary Financial Institutions include credit institutions and money market funds. ** European System of Central Banks. Source: European Central Bank.

Figure 4. 2.00

2.00

OUTSTANDING EXPOSURE TO EURO AREA GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT (trillion euros)

EURO AREA MFIs* (ex ESCB**) 1.75

1.75

Mar

1.50

1.50

1.25

1.25

1.00

1.00

.75

.75

yardeni.com

.50 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

.50

2012

* Monetary Financial Institutions include credit institutions and money market funds. ** European System of Central Banks. Source: European Central Bank.

Page 2 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Bank Exposure to: PIIGS, Greece Figure 5. 800

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO PIIGS

Latest data as of Q4-2011

800

(billion dollars) 700

700

600

600 540.6

500

500 yardeni.com

418.9 400 301.3

300

400

300

200

200 115.7

100 28.2 0

A

100

55.8

48.6

37.8

7.0

ia

tr us

55.0

50.9

B

y

nd

m

iu elg

la er

a Sp

r

itz

Sw

Ge

ce

in

n ma

F

n ela

o gd

g rtu

Po

the

Ne

Un

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

n rla

0

al

ds

Ita

Ir

n

Ki

d ite

ly

d

m

n ra

Figure 6. 55 50

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO GREECE

Latest data as of Q4-2011

(billion dollars)

55 50

44.4

45

45

40

40

35

35 yardeni.com

30 25 20

30 25 20

15

15

13.4 10.5

10

10

8.1

5

2.3

0

0.7

ia

tr us

A

1.9

d

um lgi

Be

1.0

e

itz

Sw

n rla

ma

r

Ge

ny

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 3 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

in

a Sp

0.2

e

c an

Fr

in

K ted

ni

U

m

o gd

d

Ir

n ela

5

3.5

2.2

0.3

aly

It

lan

er

th Ne

al

ds Po

g rtu

n

e ed

0

Sw

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Bank Exposure to: Ireland, Italy Figure 7. 150

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO IRELAND

Latest data as of Q4-2011

150

(billion dollars)

127.4 125

125

100

100

95.3 yardeni.com

75

50

75

50

27.5 21.9

25

25 15.5

12.3 1.9 0

A

4.3

0.5

tria

us

13.1

7.8

nd

m

iu elg

B

la er

itz

Sw

ny

ma

r

Ge

ain

Sp

ce

nd

a inl

F

y tal

m

n ra

o gd

I

in

F

dK

U

g rtu

Po

the

Ne

e nit

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

n rla

1.4

al

ds

0

en

d we

S

Figure 8. 450

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO ITALY

Latest data as of Q4-2011

450

(billion dollars) 400

400

350

350

332.3

300

300 yardeni.com

250

200

150

250

200

150

134.0

100

100 59.4

50 18.5 0

ia str

Au

12.4

ium

lg

Be

er

itz

Sw

d lan

Ge

r

ma

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 4 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

Sp

ain

Fin

d lan

2.2

1.3

0.5

ny

50

34.4

31.0

17.4

e nc

a

Fr

U

ni

K ted

in

gd

om

Ire

d lan

th Ne

er

lan

ds Po

rtu

l ga

0.7

n

e ed

0

Sw

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Bank Exposure to: Portugal, Spain Figure 9. 100

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO PORTUGAL

Latest data as of Q4-2011

100

(billion dollars)

76.0

75

75

yardeni.com

50

50

30.2 25

21.8

1.0 0

tria

us

A

2.8

2.1

m

nd

iu elg

B

la er

ain

ma

r

Ge

ny

ce

nd

m

n ra

a inl

Sp

F

F

d ite

o gd

Ir

ds

I

n rla

the

Ne

Un

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

0.2

y tal

nd

ela

n

Ki

4.9

3.2

0.6

0.2

itz

Sw

25

20.9

0

en

d we

S

Figure 10. 200

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO SPAIN

Latest data as of Q4-2011

200

(billion dollars)

146.1

150

150

yardeni.com

114.7 100 83.1

50

100

50 27.7

21.3

23.1

13.1 4.5 0

ia

tr us

A

4.9

1.2

d

Be

um lgi

e

itz

Sw

n rla

r

ma

Ge

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 5 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

ny

d

F

an inl

e

m

Fr

c an

in

o gd

K ted

d

Ir

n ela

2.9

It

aly

al

g rtu

Po

n

e ed

0

Sw

U

ni

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Quarterly Change in Bank Exposure to: PIIGS, Greece Figure 11. 900

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO PIIGS

Latest data as of Q4-2011

900

(billion dollars) 800

619.6

Q4-2011

540.6

680.7

671.7

Spain

France

United Kingdom

Italy

55.8

62.2

79.3

79.5

48.6

52.0

52.5

54.0

Germany

400

200

100

0

500

300

115.7

124.0

138.6

135.5

300

301.3

326.4

353.5

600

347.5

400

200

700

Q3-2011

418.9

455.7

507.0

500

Q2-2011

yardeni.com

522.0

700

600

800

Q1-2011

100

0

Netherlands

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 12. 70

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO GREECE

Latest data as of Q4-2011

70

Q1-2011 Q3-2011 44.4

50

60

Q2-2011 47.9

60

55.7

56.9

(billion dollars)

50

Q4-2011 yardeni.com

France

United Kingdom

Italy

10 3.5

4.1

4.4

5.2

2.2

3.2

3.7

4.5

Spain

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

Germany

30

10.5

10

0

40

20 11.5

12.6

13.4

14.7

18.6

20

21.4

30

23.8

40

Netherlands

0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 6 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Quarterly Change in Bank Exposure to: Ireland, Italy Figure 13. EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO IRELAND

Q1-2011

150

Q3-2011 125

95.3

yardeni.com

100

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Italy

13.1

14.7

16.1

18.8

15.5

15.9

14.8

27.5

29.0

13.4

Spain

100

75

50

7.8

8.6

9.2

30.1 0

10.1

25

32.0

75

50

175

Q2-2011 Q4-2011

101.6

110.5

125

116.5

150

127.4

136.6

(billion dollars)

137.1

Latest data as of Q4-2011 140.9

175

25

0

Netherlands

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 14.

Q2-2011

350

400

Q3-2011

332.3

400

Q4-2011

350

yardeni.com

300

134.0

0

Germany

France

250 200

United Kingdom

Netherlands

34.4

38.2

52.1

100 49.0

59.4

61.3

68.9

Spain

31.0

35.5

39.8

35.8

100 50

300

150 73.7

161.8

144.7

150

164.9

250 200

500 450

Q1-2011 372.4

(billion dollars)

Latest data as of Q4-2011 416.4

450

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO ITALY 410.2

500

50 0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 7 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Quarterly Change in Bank Exposure to: Portugal, Spain Figure 15. 125

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO PORTUGAL

Latest data as of Q4-2011

125

(billion dollars)

Q1-2011 100

Q3-2011 Q4-2011

76.0

78.8

88.5

88.5

Q2-2011

100

20.9

0

Germany

Spain

France

75

50

United Kingdom

Italy

4.9

5.2

6.7

6.6

3.2

3.5

3.9

25

4.3

25.4

26.6

23.4

25

21.8

25.8

25.7

28.3

30.2

30.0

35.9

38.9

50

yardeni.com

75

0

Netherlands

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 16. 250

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO SPAIN

Latest data as of Q4-2011

250

(billion dollars)

Q2-2011

0

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Italy

27.7

29.5

30.0

31.8

50

83.1

100.9

93.1

100

100.8

114.7

144.5

150.9

146.1

Q4-2011 yardeni.com

150

200

Q3-2011 146.1

160.9

177.5

200

177.9

Q1-2011

150

100

50

0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 8 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Quarterly Change in Bank Exposure to: PIIGS, Greece Figure 17.

75.0 64.4

Q4-2011

70

37.8

40.9

46.1 26.0

28.6

31.1

30

45.6

55.0

50.9 28.2

33.8

40.5

39.9

40

80

yardeni.com

60

Q2-2011 Q3-2011

65.0

70

100 90

Q1-2011 71.4

80

50

Latest data as of Q4-2011

(billion dollars)

78.8

90

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO PIIGS 78.6

100

60 50 40 30 20

7.0

20 10 0

Austria

Belgium

Switzerland

10

Ireland

0

Portugal

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 18. EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO GREECE

Latest data as of Q4-2011 10.2

(billion dollars) Q1-2011 10

10 8.7

Q2-2011 8.1

Q3-2011 Q4-2011 8

8 yardeni.com

3.4

1.9

2.5

3.0

6

4

0.2

0.7

0.9

0.7

0.8

2

1.4

2.0

1.7

2

2.3

2.6

3.3

3.3

6

4

12

10.1

12

0

Austria

Belgium

Switzerland

Ireland

Portugal

0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 9 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Quarterly Change in Bank Exposure to: Ireland, Italy Figure 19. 45

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO IRELAND

Latest data as of Q4-2011

45

(billion dollars) 40

40

Q1-2011 Q2-2011

35

35

Q3-2011 Q4-2011 24.2 12.3

16.7 13.8

15

14.6

21.9

25.4

20

yardeni.com

25

23.4

30

26.0

30

20

15

10

0

5.2

4.3

5

1.9

2.4

2.6

2.7

5.9

10

5

25

Austria

Belgium

Switzerland

0

Portugal

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 20. EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO ITALY

Latest data as of Q4-2011

(billion dollars)

Q1-2011 26.7 24.1

Q4-2011

21.4

22.2

24.0

Belgium

Switzerland

Ireland

Portugal

2.2

2.5

1.3

Austria

3.1

10

3.1

10

0

20

11.0

13.1

17.4 12.4

12.0

24.9

Q3-2011

yardeni.com

20

30

Q2-2011

18.5

21.4

24.4

24.2

30

0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 10 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Quarterly Change in Bank Exposure to: Portugal, Spain Figure 21. 5

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO PORTUGAL

Latest data as of Q4-2011

5

(billion dollars)

Q1-2011 Q2-2011

2.0

1.8

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.5

2.6

2.6

yardeni.com

2.8

3.2

Q4-2011

3

3

2

1.0

1.2

1.5

2

4

Q3-2011

3.5

3.6

4

1 0.6

1

0

Austria

Belgium

Switzerland

0

Ireland

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 22. 40

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO SPAIN

Latest data as of Q4-2011

40

(billion dollars) Q1-2011

35

35

23.1

24.5

21.3

21.2

25

12.3

13.6

14.7

13.1 8.8

Austria

4.9

4.5

6.2

7.9

15

10

5

0

30

20

15

10

25.7

23.9 21.2

yardeni.com

20

22.2

25

24.1

Q4-2011

27.4

Q3-2011

30

26.5

Q2-2011

Belgium

Switzerland

Ireland

5

Portugal

0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 11 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Bank Exposure to: PIIGS Figure 23. 250

250

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO GREECE, IRELAND & PORTUGAL (billion dollars)

Latest data as of Q4-2011

GREECE PORTUGAL IRELAND

200

200

158.9 yardeni.com

150

138.9

93.6

100 84.8

50

150

100

50 25.3

21.4

20.8

16.3

5.3 0

ia

iu elg

A

y

nd

m

tr us

la er

Sw

a Sp

r

itz

B

Ge

ce

in

n ma

ly

m

n ra

in

F

dK

U

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

n rla

the

Ne

e nit

0

ds

Ita

o gd

Figure 24. 600

EUROPEAN BANKS’ EXPOSURE TO ITALY & SPAIN

Latest data as of Q4-2011

600

(billion dollars)

ITALY SPAIN

500

500 447.0

400

400 yardeni.com

300

280.1

200

300

200 142.5

100

100

0

ia

tr us

A

38.6

25.5

22.9

y

d

um lgi

Be

25.3

6.3

e

itz

Sw

n rla

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 12 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

Ge

r

n ma

e

m

Fr

c an

in

o gd

K ted

al

d

Ir

n ela

0

g rtu

Po

U

ni

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Bank Exposure Sector wise to: PIIGS, Greece Figure 25. 800

EUROPEAN BANKS’ SECTOR EXPOSURES TO PIIGS

Latest data as of Q4-2011

800

(billion dollars) 700

600

Unallocated by Sector Non-Bank Private Sector Public Sector Banks

700

600 540.6

500

500 418.9

400

400 301.3

300

300

200

200 115.7

100

0

100 50.9

55.0

Belgium

Switzerland

48.6

Germany

Spain

France

United Kingdom

Italy

0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 26. 60 55 50 45 40

EUROPEAN BANKS’ SECTOR EXPOSURES TO GREECE

Latest data as of Q4-2011

(billion dollars)

60 55

Unallocated by Sector Non-Bank Private Sector Public Sector Banks

50 44.4

45 40

35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

13.4 10.5

10 5 0.7 0

Belgium

1.9

Switzerland

2.2

1.0

Germany

Spain

10

France

United Kingdom

Italy

5 0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 13 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Bank Exposure Sector wise to: Ireland, Italy Figure 27. 175

EUROPEAN BANKS’ SECTOR EXPOSURES TO IRELAND

Latest Data as of Q4-2011

175

(billion dollars) 150

125

Unallocated by Sector Non-Bank Private Sector Public Sector Banks

100

150 127.4 125

100

95.3

75

75

50

50

25

27.5

21.9

15.5

12.3 0

Belgium

25

7.8

Switzerland

Germany

Spain

France

United Kingdom

Italy

0

Source: Bank forInternational Settlements.

Figure 28. 450

EUROPEAN BANKS’ SECTOR EXPOSURES TO ITALY

Latest data as of Q4-2011

450

(billion dollars) 400

350

300

400

Unallocated by Sector Non-Bank Private Sector Public Sector Banks

350

332.3

300

250

250

200

200

150

150

134.0

100

100 59.4

50

0

12.4

17.4

Belgium

Switzerland

50

31.0

Germany

Spain

France

United Kingdom

0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 14 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Bank Exposure Sector wise to: Portugal, Spain Figure 29. 90 85 80 75 70 65 60

EUROPEAN BANKS’ SECTOR EXPOSURES TO PORTUGAL

Latest data as of Q4-2011

(billion dollars)

Unallocated by Sector Non-Bank Private Sector Public Sector Banks

90 85 80

76.0

75 70 65 60

55

55

50

50

45

45

40

40

35

35

30.2

30

30

25

21.8

25

20.9

20

20

15

15

10 5 0

10 3.2

2.8

2.1

Belgium

Switzerland

Germany

Spain

France

United Kingdom

Italy

5 0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 30. 175

EUROPEAN BANKS’ SECTOR EXPOSURES TO SPAIN

Latest data as of Q4-2011

175

(billion dollars, nsa) 150

125

Unallocated by Sector Non-Bank Private Sector Public Sector Banks

146.1

150

125 114.7

100

100 83.1

75

75

50

50 27.7

21.3

25

25

13.1 0

Belgium

Switzerland

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Italy

0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 15 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Bank Exposure to PIIGS: Belgium, France Figure 31. 100 90 80 70

BELGIUM BANKS’ EXPOSURES TO PIIGS

Latest data as of Q4-2011

(billion dollars, nsa)

100 90

Unallocated by Sector Non-Bank Private Sector Public Sector Banks

80 70

60

60 50.9

50

50

40

40

30

30 21.9

20

20 13.1

12.4

10 0

10 2.8

0.7

Spain

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Portugal

PIIGS

0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 32. 750 675 600 525

FRENCH BANKS’ EXPOSURES TO PIIGS

Latest data as of Q4-2011

(billion dollars, nsa)

750 675

Unallocated by Sector Non-Bank Private Sector Public Sector Banks

600 540.6 525

450

450

375

375 332.3

300

300

225

225

150 75 0

150

114.7 44.4

Spain

Greece

75 27.5

Ireland

21.8

Italy

Portugal

PIIGS

0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 16 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Bank Exposure to PIIGS: Germany, Switzerland Figure 33. 600

GERMAN BANKS’ EXPOSURES TO PIIGS

Latest data as of Q4-2011

600

(billion dollars, nsa) 525

450

Unallocated by Sector Non-Bank Private Sector Public Sector Banks

525

418.9

450

375

375

300

300

225

225

150

146.1

150

134.0 95.3

75

75 30.2

13.4 0

Spain

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Portugal

PIIGS

0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 34. 100 90 80 70

SWISS BANKS’ EXPOSURES TO PIIGS

Latest data as of Q4-2011

(billion dollars, nsa)

100 90

Unallocated by Sector Non-Bank Private Sector Public Sector Banks

80 70

60

55.0

60

50

50

40

40

30

30 21.3

20

20

17.4 12.3

10

10 2.1

1.9 0

Spain

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Portugal

PIIGS

0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 17 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Bank Exposure to PIIGS: UK Figure 35. 450

375

300

UK BANKS’ EXPOSURES TO PIIGS (billion dollars, nsa)

Latest data as of Q4-2011

Unallocated by Sector Non-Bank Private Sector Public Sector Banks

450

375

301.3

225

300

225

150

150

127.4 83.1

75

20.9

10.5 0

75

59.4

Spain

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Portugal

PIIGS

0

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 18 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Money Aggregates: Euro Area, France Figure 36. 20

20

MONETARY AGGREGATES*: EURO AREA

M1 (3.6)

(yearly percent change, sa)

M2 (3.2) M3 (2.6)

15

15

10

10

5

5 May

0

0

yardeni.com

-5 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-5

2012

* Includes currency in circulation. Source: European Central Bank/Haver Analytics.

Figure 37. 20

20

MONETARY AGGREGATES*: FRANCE

M1 (4.6)

(yearly percent change)

M2 (4.5) M3 (2.2)

15

15

10

10

5

Apr

5

0

0

-5

-5

yardeni.com

-10 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-10

2012

* Includes currency in circulation. Source: Banque de France/Haver Analytics.

Page 19 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Money Aggregates: Germany, Greece Figure 38. 30

30

MONETARY AGGREGATES*: GERMANY

M1 (7.6)

(yearly percent change, sa)

M2 (6.6)

25

25

M3 (6.3)

20

20

15

15

10

10 Apr

5

5

0

0

yardeni.com

-5 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-5

2012

* Includes currency in circulation. Source: Duetsche Bundesbank/Haver Analytics.

Figure 39. 30

MONETARY AGGREGATES*: GREECE

M1 (-14.8)

(yearly percent change)

25

M2 (-13.4) M3 (-13.5)

20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 Apr

-15 yardeni.com

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

-20

2013

* Includes currency in circulation. Source: Bank of Greece/Haver Analytics.

Page 20 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Money Aggregates: Ireland, Italy Figure 40. 45

45

MONETARY AGGREGATES*: IRELAND

M1 (-6.7)

(yearly percent change)

M2 (-5.3)

35

35

M3 (-9.7)

25

25

15

15

5

5

-5

May

-15

-5

-15

yardeni.com

-25 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-25

2012

* Excludes currency in circulation. Source: Central Statistics Office Ireland/Haver Analytics.

Figure 41. 20

20

MONETARY AGGREGATES*: ITALY

M1 (-5.3)

(yearly percent change)

M2 (2.9) M3 (-0.5)

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

Apr

yardeni.com

-10 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-5

-10

2012

* Excludes currency in circulation. Source: Banca d’Italia/Haver Analytics.

Page 21 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Money Aggregates: Portugal, Spain Figure 42. 20

20

MONETARY AGGREGATES*: PORTUGAL

M1 (-8.9)

(yearly percent change)

M2 (-5.9)

15

15

M3 (-6.5)

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5 Apr

-10

-10

yardeni.com

-15 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-15

2012

* Excludes currency in circulation. Source: Banco de Portugal/Haver Analytics.

Figure 43. 25

25

MONETARY AGGREGATES*: SPAIN

M1 (-3.7)

(yearly percent change)

M2 (-5.4)

20

20

M3 (-0.9)

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0 Apr

-5

-5

yardeni.com

-10 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-10

2012

* Includes currency in circulation. Source: Banco de Espana/Haver Analytics.

Page 22 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- EU Money Aggregates: M2, M3 Figure 44. 30 25

30

M2 MONETARY AGGREGATES*: EURO AREA (yearly percent change)

20

France (4.5)

Germany (6.6)

Greece (-13.4)

Italy (2.9)

Portugal (-5.8)

Spain (-5.4)

25 20

15

15

10

10 Apr Apr Apr

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

Apr Apr

-10

-10 Apr

-15

-15 yardeni.com

-20 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

-20

2013

* Includes currency in circulation and German aggregates are seasonally adjusted. Source: Bank of Greece, Duetsche Bundesbank, Banque de France, Banco de Portugal, Banca d’ Italia, Banco de Espana, & Haver Analytics.

Figure 45. 30 25

30

M3 MONETARY AGGREGATES*: EUROPE (yearly percent change)

20

France (2.2)

Italy (-0.4)

Germany (6.3)

Portugal (-6.5)

Greece (-15.1)

Spain (-0.9)

25 20

15

15

10

10 Apr

5

5

Apr 0

0

Apr Apr

-5

-5

Apr

-10

-10 Mar

-15

-15 yardeni.com

-20 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

-20

2013

* Includes currency in circulation and German aggregates are seasonally adjusted. Source: Bank of Greece, Duetsche Bundesbank, Banque de France, Banco de Portugal, Banca d’ Italia, Banco de Espana, & Haver Analytics.

Page 23 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Non-Performing Loans: Spain Figure 46. 175

175

SPANISH CREDIT INSTITUTIONS: NON-PERFORMING LOANS (billion euros)

Apr

150

150

125

125

yardeni.com

100

75

100

75

50

50

25

25

0

J F M A M J J A S O N D J FM A M J J A S O N D J FM A M J J A S O N D J FM A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Banca de Espana.

0

Figure 47. 10

10

SPANISH CREDIT INSTITUTIONS: NON-PERFORMING LOANS (percentage of total loans)

Apr 8

6

6

yardeni.com

8

4

2

0

4

2

J F M A M J J A S O N D J FM A M J J A S O N D J FM A M J J A S O N D J FM A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Banco de Espana.

Page 24 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

0

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Spain’s Exposure to Spanish Sovereign Debt Figure 48. SPANISH CREDIT INSTITUTIONS’* EXPOSURE TO SPANISH SOVEREIGN DEBT

201.8

178.2

174.5

175.7

175.3

179.9

176.0

167.9

166.7

161.3

159.9

233.4

231.1

250

200 yardeni.com

156.5

220.3

(billion euros) 250

200

300

Data through Apr. 2012 239.5

300

150

150

100

100

50

50

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J A S O N 2011 * Excludes the Spanish Central Bank (Banco de Espana) holdings. Source: TesoroPublico.

Page 25 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J 2012

A

S

O

N

D

0

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Italy’s Exposure to Italian Sovereign Debt Figure 49. 1250

ITALIAN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS’ EXPOSURE TO ITALIAN SOVEREIGN DEBT*

1250

Data through Mar. 2012

(billion euros)

868.2

834.8

810.6

788.6

786.3

794.1

788.7

788.7

784.7

772.7

768.9

762.9

757.4

774.8

766.5

761.8

761.6

757.7

748.6

751.3

751.1

750.4

739.4

718.1

689.0

679.3

1000

yardeni.com

750

701.4

Resident Monetary Financial Institutions** Other Resident Financial Institutions

1000

500

250

0

750

500

250

J

F

M

A

M

J J A S O N D J F M 2010 * Figures from January, 2010 are all provisional. ** Excludes the Italian Central Bank (Banca d’Italia) holdings. Source: Banca d’Italia.

Page 26 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

A

M

J J 2011

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J J 2012

A

S

O

N

D

0

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- ECB Lending Figure 50. 400

ECB LENDING* TO EURO AREA BANKS

400

Latest data as of May 2012**

(billion euros) 350

350 324.6

300

300 272.7

250

250 yardeni.com

223.0 200

150

200

150

100

100

84.5

74.9

62.0

58.7 40.0

50

50

30.7

19.8 3.6

0

ain

Sp

I

y tal

ce

F

n ra

ela

nd

Ir

Ge

r

ma

ny

al

ce

G

e re

Po

g rtu

ds

m

B

iu elg

Ne

the

n rla

us

tria

A

d

an inl

0

F

Latest data for France is as of June, 2012 and for Germany, Greece and Netherlands, they are as of April, 2012. The lending includes the 3-year LTRO (Longer-term Refinancing Operations) offered in December, 2011 and February, 2012. Source: ESCB (ECB and National Central Banks)/Haver Analytics.

Page 27 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- ECB Lending to Credit Institutions of: France, Germany Figure 51. 275

Data through Jun. 2012

200

175

141.0

123.7

200

yardeni.com

125

140.5

175 150

225

197.1

Main Refinancing Operations (MROs) Longer Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs)* Other Liquidity-providing Operations

225

250

222.1

Main Components _______________

222.0

221.4

(billion euros)

175.0

250

ECB LENDING TO FRENCH CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

167.4

275

66.8

75

42.9

40.4

38.2

40.1

44.6

47.3

48.1

50.7

53.1

52.4

57.0

50

50

25 0

125 100

100 75

150

25

O

N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 2010 2011 2012 * Longer Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) include the 3-yr auctions conducted in December, 2011 and February, 2012. Source: Banque de France.

S

O

N

D

0

Figure 52. 175

ECB LENDING TO GERMAN CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

175

Data through May. 2012

(billion euros) 150

Main Components _______________

150

Main Refinancing Operations (MROs) Longer Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs)*

0

79.7

74.9

47.5

55.7

75

25

N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 2010 2011 2012 * Longer Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) include the 3-yr auctions conducted in December, 2011 and February, 2012. Source: Deutsche Bundesbank.

Page 28 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

100

50

21.5

31.0

37.5

48.6

74.4

O

21.2

25

45.8

50

57.7

52.2

64.8

74.9

82.2

101.9

71.6

75

yardeni.com

100

92.9

125 102.9

125

S

O

N

D

0

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- ECB Lending to Credit Institutions of: Italy, Spain Figure 53. ECB LENDING TO ITALIAN CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

325

(billion euros)

300

Main Components _______________

272.7

271.0

325

Main Refinancing Operations (MROs) Longer Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs)*

275

350

Data through May. 2012 270.0

350

300 275

225

202.5

250 210.0

250

225 yardeni.com

175 150 125 100

41.3

30.8

40.7

36.1

50

25 0

200

75 40.2

47.4

28.7

50

31.9

75

47.6

100

85.1

80.5

125

104.7

150

111.3

175

147.8

151.8

200

25 O

N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 2010 2011 2012 * Longer Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) include the 3-yr auctions conducted in December, 2011 and February, 2012. Source: Banca d’Italia.

S

O

N

D

0

Figure 54. 450

ECB LENDING TO SPANISH CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

450

Data through May. 2012

(billion euros)

400 324.6

Main Refinancing Operations (MROs) Longer Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs)*

350

316.9

Main Components _______________ 316.3

400

350

300

300 yardeni.com

0

O

86.2

79.4

81.6

57.4

49.5

57.9

43.8

50.9

57.1

69.7

43.8

50

64.5

100

71.3

132.4

150

106.3

169.8

200

161.4

250

200

150

100

50

N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 2010 2011 2012 * Longer Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) include the 3-yr auctions conducted in December, 2011 and February, 2012. Source: Banco de Espana.

Page 29 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

250

S

O

N

D

0

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- Net ECB Lending to Credit Institutions of: France, Germany Figure 55. 160

NET ECB LENDING* TO FRENCH CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

160

Data through Jun. 2012

118.3

120

100 yardeni.com

84.0

100

84.4

117.5

118.6

140 114.0

105.0

120

114.1

140

123.6

(billion euros)

52.5

40

20

0

80

60

36.2

38.2

40

37.4

38.9

44.0

45.7

42.7

45.1

49.2

48.8

60

51.3

80

20

O

N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2010 2011 2012 * Net ECB lending (via NCB of France) = Main Refinancing Operations (MROs) + Longer-term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) + Marginal Lending Facility + Other Liquidity-providing Operations - Deposit Facilty. Longer-term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) include the 3-yr auctions conducted in December, 2011 and February, 2012. Source: Banque de France.

0

Figure 56. 200

NET ECB LENDING* TO GERMAN CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

Data through May. 2012

200

(billion euros)

50

21.5

32.6

49.2

53.1

54.6

61.9

65.9

64.6

100 44.5

50

69.2

100

150 82.3

150

-10.4

-50 -71.1

-100 -118.4

-100

-195.3

-200

-202.0

-150 -173.7

-150

-250

-36.6

-50

-37.1

0 -25.8

0

-200 yardeni.com

-250 N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2010 2011 2012 * Net ECB lending (via NCB of Germany) = Main Refinancing Operations (MROs) + Longer-term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) + Fine-tuning Reserve Operations (net) + Marginal Lending Facility - Deposit Facilty. Longer-term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) include the 3-yr auctions conducted in December, 2011 and February, 2012. Source: Deutsche Bundesbank. O

Page 30 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Net ECB Lending to Credit Institutions of: Italy, Spain Figure 57. 325

Data through May. 2012

(billion euros)

275

265.1

300 258.2

300

NET ECB LENDING* TO ITALIAN CREDIT INSTITUTIONS 260.1

325

275

225 200 yardeni.com

152.6

200

193.3

225

196.4

250 197.7

250

175

110.0

125 100

41.1

30.5

40.4

35.7

50

25 0

150

75 39.8

45.1

28.0

50

31.9

75

47.2

80.1

100

84.5

125

103.9

150

175

25 O

N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2010 2011 2012 * Net ECB lending (via NCB of Italy) = Main Refinancing Operations (MROs) + Longer-term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) + Fine-tuning Reserve Operations (net) + Marginal Lending Facility - Deposit Facilty. Longer-term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) include the 3-yr auctions conducted in December, 2011 and February, 2012. Source: Banca d’Italia.

0

(billion euros)

263.5

300

NET ECB LENDING* TO SPANISH CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

325

Data through May. 2012

300 275

227.6

275

287.8

Figure 58. 325

250

250 225

200

200

75 50

25 0

150

100

76.0

69.3

69.9

52.1

47.8

53.1

42.2

42.2

53.6

67.0

49.3

50

61.5

75

67.9

100

175

125

98.0

125

133.2

118.9

150

yardeni.com

175

152.4

225

25 O

N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2010 2011 2012 * Net ECB lending (via NCB of Spain) = Main Refinancing Operations (MROs) + Longer-term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) + Fine-tuning Reserve Operations (net) + Marginal Lending Facility - Deposit Facilty. Longer-term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) include the 3-yr auctions conducted in December, 2011 and February, 2012. Source: Banco de Espana.

Page 31 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

0

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- External Debt: PIIGS,France Figure 59. 18

18

EXTERNAL DEBT* OF PIIGS (trillion dollars, nsa)

16

16

Gross External Debt (7.8) Gross Ext Debt: General Govt (1.7)

14

14

Gross Ext Debt: Monetary Authorities (0.8) Gross Ext Debt: Banks (2.4)

12

Gross Ext Debt: Direct Investment Lending (0.8)

8

yardeni.com

10

12

Gross Ext Debt: Other Sectors (2.0)

Q4

10

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Gross external debt, at any given time, is the outstanding amount of those current, and not contingent liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of an economy that require payment(s) either of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in the future. Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 60. 10 9 8

10

EXTERNAL DEBT* OF FRANCE (trllion dollars, nsa)

9

Gross External Debt (5.0) Gross Ext Debt: General Govt (1.4)

8

Gross Ext Debt: Monetary Authorities (0.3) 7

Gross Ext Debt: Banks (2.2)

7

Gross Ext Debt: Other Sectors (0.7) Gross Ext Debt: Direct Investment Lending (0.4)

yardeni.com

6

Q4

5 4

6 5 4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Gross external debt, at any given time, is the outstanding amount of those current, and not contingent liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of an economy that require payment(s) either of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in the future. Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 32 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- External Debt: Germany, Greece Figure 61. 10

EXTERNAL DEBT* OF GERMANY 9

(trillion dollars, nsa)

9

Gross External Debt (5.3) 8

Gross Ext Debt: General Govt (1.7)

8

Gross Ext Debt: Monetary Authorities (0.1) 7 6

Gross Ext Debt: Banks (2.2)

7

Gross Ext Debt: Other Sectors (0.8) yardeni.com

Gross Ext Debt: Direct Investment Lending (0.6)

Q4

5 4 3

6 5 4 3

2

2

1

1

0

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Gross external debt, at any given time, is the outstanding amount of those current, and not contingent liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of an economy that require payment(s) either of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in the future. Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 62. 900

900

EXTERNAL DEBT* OF GREECE (billion dollars, nsa)

800

800

Gross External Debt (475.8) Gross Ext Debt: General Govt (203.1)

700

700

Gross Ext Debt: Monetary Authorities (135.5) Gross Ext Debt: Banks (118.0)

600

Gross Ext Debt: Direct Investment Lending (6.6)

yardeni.com

500

600

Gross Ext Debt: Others Sectors (12.5) Q4

400

500

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

0

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Gross external debt, at any given time, is the outstanding amount of those current, and not contingent liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of an economy that require payment(s) either of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in the future. Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 33 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com


- External Debt: Ireland, Italy Figure 63. 4800 4400

4800

EXTERNAL DEBT* OF IRELAND (billion dollars, nsa)

4400

Gross External Debt (2175.7) 4000

Gross Ext Debt: General Govt (133.7)

4000

3600

Gross Ext Debt: Monetary Authorities (155.9)

3600

Gross Ext Debt: Banks (479.2) Gross Ext Debt: Other Sectors (1076.5)

2800

Gross Ext Debt: Direct Investment Lending (330.5)

3200 yardeni.com

3200

2400 Q4 2000

2800 2400 2000

1600

1600

1200

1200

800

800

400

400

0

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Gross external debt, at any given time, is the outstanding amount of those current, and not contingent liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of an economy that require payment(s) either of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in the future. Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 64. 5000

EXTERNAL DEBT* OF ITALY

5000

(billion dollars, nsa)

Gross External Debt (2345.3) 4000

Gross Ext Debt: General Govt (871.3)

4000

Gross Ext Debt: Monetary Authorities (251.1) Gross Ext Debt: Banks (712.4) Gross Ext Debt: Other Sectors (324.8) Gross Ext Debt: Direct Investment Lending (185.7)

yardeni.com

3000

Q4 2000

3000

2000

1000

1000

0

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Gross external debt, at any given time, is the outstanding amount of those current, and not contingent liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of an economy that require payment(s) either of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in the future. Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 34 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- External Debt: Portugal, Spain Figure 65. 1000 900 800

1000

EXTERNAL DEBT* OF PORTUGAL (billion dollars, nsa)

900

Gross External Debt (480.7) Gross Ext Debt: General Govt (127.7)

800

Gross Ext Debt: Monetary Authorities (78.9) 700

Gross Ext Debt: Banks (174.4)

700

Gross Ext Debt: Other Sectors (72.4) Gross Ext Debt: Direct Investment Lending (27.2)

500

yardeni.com

600

Q4

400

600 500 400

300

300

200

200

100

100

0

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Gross external debt, at any given time, is the outstanding amount of those current, and not contingent liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of an economy that require payment(s) either of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in the future. Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 66. 4800 4400

4800

EXTERNAL DEBT* OF SPAIN (billion dollars, nsa)

4400

Gross External Debt (2296.9) 4000

Gross Ext Debt: General Govt (365.3)

4000

3600

Gross Ext Debt: Monetary Authorities (226.9)

3600

Gross Ext Debt: Banks (927.0) Gross Ext Debt: Other Sectors (547.0)

2800

Gross Ext Debt: Direct Investment Lending (230.8)

3200

2400

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3200

Q4

2000

2800 2400 2000

1600

1600

1200

1200

800

800

400

400

0

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Gross external debt, at any given time, is the outstanding amount of those current, and not contingent liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of an economy that require payment(s) either of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in the future. Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 35 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- External Debt: UK Figure 67. 22 20 18 16 14

22

EXTERNAL DEBT* OF UK (trillion dollars, nsa)

20

Gross External Debt (9.9) Gross Ext Debt: General Govt (0.7)

18

Gross Ext Debt: Monetary Authorities (0.0)

16

Gross Ext Debt: Banks (5.8) Gross Ext Debt: Other Sectors (2.8)

14 yardeni.com

Gross Ext Debt: Direct Investment Lending (0.7) 12 Q4

10

12 10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Gross external debt, at any given time, is the outstanding amount of those current, and not contingent liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of an economy that require payment(s) either of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in the future. Source: Bank for International Settlements.

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- External Debt: EU Figure 68. 20

20

EXTERNAL DEBT* OF UK VS. EURO AREA (trillion dollars, nsa) UK (9.9)

18

18

EURO AREA (14.7) 16

16 Q4 yardeni.com

14

12

Q4

10

14

12

10

8

8

6

6 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Gross external debt, at any given time, is the outstanding amount of those current, and not contingent liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of an economy that require payment(s) either of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in the future. Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Figure 69. 20 18

20

EXTERNAL DEBT* OF FRANCE, GERMANY, UK & PIIGS (trillion dollars, nsa)

18

UK (9.9) FRANCE (5.0)

16

16

GERMANY (5.3) PIIGS (7.8)

14

14

yardeni.com

12 Q4

10 8

12 10 8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Gross external debt, at any given time, is the outstanding amount of those current, and not contingent liabilities owed to non-residents by residents of an economy that require payment(s) either of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in the future. Source: Bank for International Settlements.

Page 37 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Deposits: Greece Figure 70. 300

DEPOSITS AND REPOS OF DOMESTIC RESIDENTS (NON-MFIs) IN MFIs*: GREECE (billion euros, nsa) 250

Gross Domestic Residents** 250

Government Insurance 200

Other Financial Corporations 200

Non-Financial Corporations May

yardeni.com

Households 150

150

100 100

50 50

0 0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Bank of Greece (the central bank of Greece) and Money Market Funds. ** Gross deposits and repos of domestic residents is the sum of deposits and repos of: General Government, Insurance Corporations, Other Financial Coporations, Non-Financial Coporations and Households. Source: Bank of Greece/Haver Analytics.

Figure 71. 300

DEPOSITS AND REPOS IN MFIs*: GREECE (billion euros, nsa) 250

Domestic Residents 250

Other Euro Area Residents Non-Euro Area Residents 200

200 yardeni.com

May 150

150

100 100

50 50

0 0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Bank of Greece (the central bank of Greece) and Money Market Funds. Source: Bank of Greece/Haver Analytics.

Page 38 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Deposits: Italy Figure 72. 2000

DEPOSITS BY DOMESTIC RESIDENTS IN MFIs*: ITALY (billion euros, nsa)

Gross Domestic Residents** 1500

Other Financial Institutions Insurance Corporations and Pension Funds

1500

Apr

Non-Financial Corporations Consumer Households

yardeni.com

Producer Households 1000

NPISHs Central Counterparties

1000

500 500

0 0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Banca d’Italia (the central bank of Italy) and Money Market Funds. ** Gross Deposits of Domestic Residents is the sum of the deposits of: Other Financial Institutions, Insurance Corproations and Pension Funds, Insurance Corporations and Pension Funds, Non-Financial Corporations, Consumer Households, Producer Households, Non Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISHs) and Central Counterparties. Source: Banca d’Italia/Haver Analytics.

Page 39 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Deposits: Spain Figure 73. 1750

1750

DEPOSITS AND REPOS OF OTHER RESIDENTIAL SECTORS* IN MFIs**: SPAIN (billion euros, nsa)

1500

1500 Apr

1250

1250

yardeni.com

1000

750

1000

750

500

500

250

250

0

0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

* Other Residential Sectors exclude General Government, MFIs, but include Households, Non Profit Serving Households (NPSHs), Non Financial Corporations, Non-Monetary Financial Institutions and Insurance Corporations and Pension Funds. ** Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Banco de Espana (Central Bank of Spain) and Money Market Funds. Source: Banco de Espana/Haver Analytics.

Page 40 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Emergency Liquidity Assistance: ECB Figure 74. 300

300

ECB’S OTHER CLAIMS ON EURO AREA CREDIT INSTITUTIONS (ASSET ITEM 6)* (billion euros, nsa)

250

250

May

200

200 yardeni.com

150

150

100

100

50

50

0

0

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2009 2010 2011 2012 * ECB announcement, April 24th 2012: In the week ending April 20, 2012, an accounting reclassification took place in order to harmonize the disclosure of the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) provided by Eurosystem central banks to domestic credit institutions under other claims on euro area credit institutions denominated in euro (ECB asset item 6). This mainly explains the increase of other claims on euro area credit institutions denominated in euro (asset item 6) by 121.1 billion euros. Source: ECB.

Figure 75. 300

300

ECB’S OTHER CLAIMS ON EURO AREA CREDIT INSTITUTIONS (ASSET ITEM 6)* (weekly, billion euros, nsa)

250

Latest data as of 06/22/12

250

200

200 yardeni.com

150

150

100

100

50

50

0

0 2009

2010

2011

2012

* ECB announcement, April 24th 2012: In the week ending April 20, 2012, an accounting reclassification took place in order to harmonize the disclosure of the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) provided by Eurosystem central banks to domestic credit institutions under other claims on euro area credit institutions denominated in euro (ECB asset item 6). This mainly explains the increase of other claims on euro area credit institutions denominated in euro (asset item 6) by 121.1 billion euros. Source: ECB.

Page 41 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Eurosystem TARGET2 Balances Figure 76. 800 700

800

NET ECB EUROSYSTEM TARGET2* BALANCES (billion euros, nsa)

700

Belgium (May=-38.4) Finland (May=58.8) France (Apr=-26.3) Germany (May=698.6) Greece (Apr=-98.0) Ireland (May=-102.1) Italy (May=-274.6) Luxemborg (May=124.1) Netherlands (Apr=136.1) Portugal (May=-62.7) Spain (May=-345.1)

600 500 400

200

500 400 yardeni.com

300

600

100 0

300 200 100 0

-100

-100

-200

-200

-300

-300

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-400 2006

2007

2008

2009

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2011

2012

2013

* TARGET2 is an interbank payment system for the real-time processing of cross-border transfers throughout the European Union. TARGET (Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer System) was replaced in November 2007 by TARGET2. Source: Institute of Empirical Economic Research.

Figure 77. 1200

1200

NET ECB EUROSYSTEM TARGET2* BALANCES (billion euros, nsa)

Apr

Germany (644.2)

900

900

Germany, Finland, Luxemborg & Netherlands (963.6) Rest of the Euro Area** (-912.5)

600

600

300

300 yardeni.com

0

0

-300

-300

-600

-600

-900

-900

-1200

-1200 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

* TARGET2 is an interbank payment system for the real-time processing of cross-border transfers throughout the European Union. TARGET (Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer System) was replaced in November 2007 by TARGET2. ** Belgium, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Source: Institute of Empirical Economic Research.

Page 42 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Eurosystem TARGET2 Balances Figure 78. 1200

1200

NET ECB EUROSYSTEM TARGET2* BALANCES (billion euros, nsa)

900

Germany (May=698.6) May

Italy+Spain (May=-619.7) 600

900

Apr

Finland+Germany+Netherlands (Apr=843.2)

600

PIIGS: Portugal+Italy+Ireland+Greece+Spain (Apr=-851.2)

yardeni.com

300

0

-300

300

0

-300

-600

-600

May Apr

-900 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

-900 2013

* TARGET2 is an interbank payment system for the real-time processing of cross-border transfers throughout the European Union. TARGET (Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer System) was replaced in November 2007 by TARGET2. Source: Institute of Empirical Economic Research.

Figure 79. 800

NET ECB EUROSYSTEM TARGET2* BALANCES (YoY change, billion euros, nsa) Germany (May=374.9)

600

Finland+Germany+Netherlands (Apr=490.9)

Apr

Italy+Spain (May=-583.5)

400

May

PIIGS: Portugal+Italy+Ireland+Greece+Spain (Apr=-532.7)

200 yardeni.com

0

-200

-400 Apr May

-600

-800 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

* TARGET2 is an interbank payment system for the real-time processing of cross-border transfers throughout the European Union. TARGET (Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer System) was replaced in November 2007 by TARGET2. Source: Institute of Empirical Economic Research.

Page 43 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Balance of Payments: France Figure 80. 60 55 50

60

NET FINANCIAL ACCOUNT: FRANCE

55

(billion euros, nsa)

50

45

45

40

40

35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5 Apr

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20

-20

-25

-25

-30

-30

-35 -40

-35

yardeni.com 2002

-40 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Banque de France/Haver Analytics.

Figure 81. 70 60

70

PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT IN FRANCE (billion euros, nsa)

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0

-10

-10

-20 -30

-20

Apr yardeni.com 2002

-30 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Banque de France/Haver Analytics.

Page 44 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Balance of Payments: Germany Figure 82. 25 20

25

NET FINANCIAL ACCOUNT: GERMANY (billion euros, nsa)

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15 Apr

-20

-20

-25

-25

-30

-30

-35

yardeni.com 2002

-35 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Deutsche Bundesbank/Haver Analytics.

Figure 83. 80 70

80

PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT IN GERMANY (billion euros, nsa)

70

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0

-10

-10 Apr

-20

-20

-30

-30

-40

-40

-50 -60

-50 yardeni.com 2002

-60 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Deutsche Bundesbank/Haver Analytics.

Page 45 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Balance of Payments: Italy Figure 84. 30 25

30

NET FINANCIAL ACCOUNT: ITALY (billion euros, nsa)

25

20

20

15

15

10

10 Apr

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20

yardeni.com 2002

-20 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Banca d’Italia/Haver Analytics.

Figure 85. 45 40

45

PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT IN ITALY

40

(billion euros, nsa)

35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

Apr

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20

-20

-25

-25

-30

-30

-35

-35

-40 -45

-40 yardeni.com 2002

-45 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Banca d’Italia/Haver Analytics.

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- Balance of Payments: Spain Figure 86. 50 40

50

NET FINANCIAL ACCOUNT: SPAIN (billion euros, nsa)

40

30

30

20

20

10

10 yardeni.com

0 -10 -20 Apr

-30

0 -10 -20 -30

-40

-40

-50

-50

-60

-60

-70

-70 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Banco de Espana/Haver Analytics.

Figure 87. 35 30

35

PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT IN SPAIN (billion euros, nsa)

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20

-20 Apr

-25 -30

-25

yardeni.com 2002

-30 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Banco de Espana/Haver Analytics.

Page 47 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Euro Area Private Lending Figure 88. 8 7

8

EURO AREA LENDING TO CONSUMERS BY MFIS* (monthly change in 3-month average, billion euros, sa)

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0 May

-1

-1

-2

-2

-3

-3 yardeni.com

-4 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-4

2012

* Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Eurosystem, and include Money Market Funds (MMFs). Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 89. 75 65

75

EURO AREA LENDING TO NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS BY MFIS* (monthly change in 3-month average, billion euros, sa)

65

55

55

45

45

35

35

25

25

15

15

5

5 May

-5 -15

-5 -15

yardeni.com

-25 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-25

2012

* Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Eurosystem, and include Money Market Funds (MMFs). Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 48 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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- Euro Area Private Lending Figure 90. 125

125

EURO AREA PRIVATE SECTOR* LENDING BY MFIS** (monthly change in 3-month average, billion euros, sa)

100

100

75

75

50

50

25

25

0

0 May

-25

-25

yardeni.com

-50 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-50

2012

* Private Sector includes Housholds, Non-profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISHs), Non-financial Corporations, Other financial intermediaries, ** Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Eurosystem, and include Money Market Funds (MMFs). and Insurance corporations and pension funds. Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 91. 16

16

EURO AREA PRIVATE SECTOR* LENDING BY MFIs** (trillion euros, sa)

14

Total Private Sector

14

Households & NPISHs 12

Nonfinancial Corporations

12

Others***

May

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2 yardeni.com

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

2013

* Private Sector includes Housholds, Non-profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISHs), Nonfinancial Corporations, Other financial intermediaries, and Insurance corporations and pension funds. ** Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Eurosystem, and include Money Market Funds (MMFs). *** Others include other financial intermediaries and Insurance corporations and pension funds. Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 49 / July 1, 2012 / Euro Debt Crisis

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European Debt Crisis  

Recent publication by Intermarket Research & Analytics LLC for Yardeni Research Inc.,

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