Auckland Central Market Report.
Part of the group with a family factor.
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Part of the group with a family factor.
04. Market Comment
06. Article – Tony Alexander: 1% boost to our population requiring 19,000 extra houses
08. Auckland Central Statistics
10. Recent Sales March 2023
14. Article – Kelvin Davidson: Is this the beginning of the end of the housing market slump?
16. Auction Statistics & Update with Cameron Brain
18. LoanMarket Update
20. Marketing your property
March showed an upswing in activity generally and encouraging sales volumes in the central city apartment market, says Director of City Realty Group, Daniel Horrobin. Sales of all apartments in the CBD were 30% up on the previous month of February.
He says: “However, now is a time for cautious optimism rather than bold predictions, given OCR increases and tax deductibility rules continue to bite.”
Stock levels of apartments available to purchase in the CBD remain steady, hovering around the low-to-mid 600s. Investors continue to drive hard bargains, ever conscious of buying at the right price to achieve a positive return on investment.
“Our auction pipeline over the coming months remains healthy and properties sold by auction are continuing to clear far more efficiently than those sold by other methods.”
Many recent auctions have drawn multiple bidders, delivering transparency and competitive engagement which assists sellers to make prudent decisions.
Increasing demand for rentals has shrunk the pool of what is available. Mid last year there would typically be around 600 city apartments available to rent, whereas there are currently around 350 rentals available. This increased demand has been driven by both students seeking accommodation and
professional people seeking to rent, having returned home from overseas now the borders are open.
This combination of increased demand and shrinking pool of available rentals is seeing unprecedented numbers attending viewings.
“It’s not unusual currently to get 30 to 40 people turn up to a rental viewing, and that’s not necessarily for flash apartments,” Daniel says. “And the large majority of these are very good applicants – professional people with good references.”
This strong rental demand may well logically translate into increased apartment values with time, although the property market has defied logic in some areas in recent years.
“With further OCR announcements imminent (the next one scheduled for the 24th of May) and a General Election in the wings, there may still be some hurdles to navigate but we remain hopeful the light we can see is the end of the tunnel,“ Daniel says.
Ray White’s licensed agents are well versed in market dynamics and are ready to help both sellers and buyers on their property journey.
DANIEL HORROBINdaniel.horrobin@raywhite.com
ANALYSIS: On average since house prices started falling in December 2021 the monthly decline has been 1.1% in seasonally adjusted terms. That is the amount by which prices fell on average in February, but this week REINZ released data showing that prices only fell 0.2% in March after we make adjustments for seasonal factors. Given that this is the best monthly result since November 2021 can we yet safely say that house prices on average have stopped falling?
That would be unwise because the last time we seemed to be on track for prices at least flattening out was just before the September quarter inflation number came out on October 18 last year. That number was a lot worse than expected and that told us all that the inflation problem in New Zealand was proving to be more difficult to combat than initially hoped.
The signs, however, are positive. My monthly surveys of both real estate agents and mortgage brokers show that first home buyers have been back in the market for about three months now. There is no sign of investors following them however, especially not with the worsening tax regime they face. But that is where things start to get a bit interesting.
There is no evidence of a wave of investors looking to sell their properties since the tax changes were announced in March 2021. But we have overwhelming evidence of
investors pulling back from making new purchases be they of existing dwellings or new ones where the tax rules remained unchanged.
The supply of rental property in New Zealand may be falling and this is happening at the same time as we are in a new migration boom. This past week we have learned that whereas a year ago New Zealand had a net annual migration loss of 20,000 people we now have an annual gain of 52,000 people. That is a 1% boost to our population requiring some 19,000 extra houses.
Yet at the same time as our population growth is experiencing a new surge forward, we face the biggest downturn in residential construction in New Zealand since the global financial crisis. The number of consents issued for new dwellings to be built was 18% lower in the three months to February than a year earlier. The overwhelming anecdotal feedback from my monthly survey of businesses around the country is that architects are laying off staff, contractors are becoming easier for builders to find, and the builders don’t want to find them because orders flowing in for new dwellings to be built are falling away sharply.
In other words, at the same time as housing demand is newly rising, we are heading into a period of decreasing growth in housing supply and decreasing availability of rental accommodation because of the tax changes put in place by the Government.
The outcome is going to be some new upward pressure on rents perhaps from later on this year, extra growth in the waiting list for state housing, and eventually a turnaround in the direction of average house price changes.
How rapidly will house prices rise when the cycle turns? That is impossible to reliably say. There are simply too many uncertain factors in play. But that is why I have highlighted the coming divergent trends for housing demand and housing supply. They imply prices going up. But the speed will be determined by how quickly people learn about this new underlying reality
and decide to act on it. With literally tens of thousands of people having held back from buying a property since prices started falling at the end of 2021, the volume of people who may or may not step forward to start bidding at the slowly recovering auctions is large. All it will take is some signal that interest rates are set to fall away, and those delayed buyers will start stepping forward. That is perhaps why we should not expect such a signal to be given by the Reserve Bank for a long time. Of course, the longer it waits, the worse the housebuilding crunch, the greater the shortage, the greater the price catch-up.
March 2023
85
March 2022
March 2023
$280,000
March 2022
There was a -30% decrease in the total number of sales year on year.
March 2023
$36,033,186
March 2022
122 $68,468,571
There was a -47% decrease in the total sales value year on year.
$430,500
There was a -35% decrease in the total median sale price year on year.
March 2023
48.5
March 2022
44
There was a 10% increase in the total median days on market year on year.
By
Sales data is from REINZ and covers the entire Central Auckland property market.
By number of bedrooms
MARCH 2023 43 1 Bed (or Studio) 27 2 Bedrooms 13 3+ Bedrooms
Sales data is from REINZ and covers the entire Central Auckland property market.
The big economic news last week was the Q1 consumers price index (CPI) data, which showed a slowdown in inflation from 7.2% in Q4 2022 to 6.7% now. Clearly, that’s still high, with food and housing being key contributors to the overall price pressures once again (e.g. new-build house costs rose by 11.5% in the year to March 2023).
However, the number was less than expected and would seem to indicate that inflation has now peaked. This is likely to cement the expectation that we only see one more official cash rate rise in this cycle, taking it up by 0.25% on 24th May to 5.5%. In turn, mortgage rates seem unlikely to rise much further either, if at all.
The latest Stats NZ rent price data showed a rise of 2.7% in the year to March (based on the flow of new leases as opposed to the stock of existing tenancies), below the long term average of 3.1%, and significantly lower than the typical rates of 6% or so that were seen in late 2021 and early 2022. So for now, the market seems to be in favour of tenants, but with the stock of rental listings already pretty low in several parts of the country and net migration now rising strongly, it may not be too long before rental growth starts to accelerate again.
In a similar vein – and just to provide an update on the “big picture” – the mood around the housing market seems to be shifting slightly, as mortgage rates top out, total listings edge lower, employment confidence stays high, and net migration surges. No doubt some investors may also be starting to imagine the reinstatement of interest deductibility for existing properties after October’s Election, and could try to get in ahead of probable restrictions on debt to income ratios from March next year too. What this amounts to is a growing body of evidence that the downturn in sales activity and property values may well be on its last legs.
That said, there are still plenty of nearterm challenges for the property market, and clearly a recessionary economic environment is one of those. This week, watch for Stats NZ’s March NZ Activity Index (NZAC) on Wednesday, and ANZ’s dual confidence measures for April –businesses on Thursday and consumers on Friday. The overall tone of these releases
may still be pretty downbeat, meaning that the chatter about recession will continue.
Of course, there’s recently been something of a divergence between measured economic activity and employment – i.e. GDP has been soft, but employment has stayed high. Last month I referred to this as a potential “jobfull recession” (conversely sometimes in the past there have been jobless recoveries). This strength in the labour market to a large extent reflects the skills shortages that still prevail, and firms’ desire to protect and retain their current staff at almost any cost. In turn, that has helped prevent an even larger housing downturn, which might have eventuated had we seen a rise in mortgage repayment problems, loan defaults, and ‘forced sales’.
In any case, the next jobs data (for March) will be released by Stats NZ this Friday, and it seems reasonable to assume that the figures will show another steady rise. Of course, this run of jobs growth could end at any time. But for now, another rise would add to the point above about the housing downturn potentially now entering the “beginning of the end”.
Our Auckland Central team are seeing increased energy in the Auction rooms with both investors and speculators competing against each other in some very heated Auctions.
Increasing rents are seeing Auckland apartments as high-yielding investments in the current market.
First home buyers are also returning to the market with many apartments offering a great alternative for entry into Auckland property market.
There has been great activity across all price points during the month of March, from Leasehold Apartments under $100,000 to Waterfront Prestige Apartments selling under the hammer for $3 million.
If you would like to discuss anything about the auction process or why should you auction, I would welcome the opportunity to discuss this with you.
Auctioneer & Auction Manager
027 424 1782
cameron.brain@raywhite.com
Below are some handy tips for paying off your mortgage faster so you can enjoy your home even more!
1. Make extra repayments
Both consistent and ad-hoc additional repayments such as bonuses and tax returns work to reduce the principal on your mortgage faster. The earlier in the loan term you begin making additional repayments, the greater the benefit in terms of time and money saved.
2. Make your first repayment on settlement date
Your first home loan repayment will generally fall due one month after settlement. Making your first repayment on your settlement date reduces the principal before the first lot of interest accrues on the amount you have borrowed.
3. Make extra repayments right from the start Regular additional repayments made right from the beginning of your loan term will have a much greater effect on the overall time and cost of your loan than starting five or ten years into the loan. Even if you are already more than five years into your loan term, you can still make a considerable saving by starting to make additional repayments now.
4. Make repayments more often
If your loan repayment amount is calculated monthly, you can make significant additional savings by halving your monthly repayments and paying fortnightly instead. This method will result in you paying an additional month’s worth off your mortgage every year, reducing the principal faster. Use this loan repayment calculator to find out the difference in loan repayment amounts.
Check the fine print in your loan documents to ensure your lender has not calculated your fortnightly repayments to equal half what the monthly repayment would have been, as this will not save you in time or money. Use the extra repayments calculator for an indication of how much you could save with different repayment amounts.
5. Look for a cheaper rate with good flexibility
The easiest way to pay your loan off sooner is to find a lower rate than the one you currently have, but maintain (or even increase) the amount you pay each month. Look for a loan with a low rate that has the flexibility you require to make additional repayments. There are a number of lenders whose rates differ significantly from the major banks’ rates that still offer good flexibility, but if you are going to refinance, make sure the costs of doing so don’t outweigh the benefits.
6. Pay loan fees and charges up front Pay establishment fees, legal fees and Lenders Mortgage Insurance (if applicable) up front rather than capitalising them into your loan. This will save your thousands of dollars in
LoanMarket Mortgage Adviser LoanMarket Mortgage Adviser
Craig Pettit Laurie Warren 027 249 0010 0275 359 490
interest over the loan term.
7. Look for loans that offer features without a charge
Some loans will charge a fee for every redraw or extra repayment, to switch from a variable to a fixed rate, to port your loan to another property, take repayment holidays etc, but some won’t. You can save the cost of fees if you know what you’re likely to use and find a loan that doesn’t charge you to use it.
8. Negotiate to make savings
You may find this more difficult now due to the current global credit situation, but you can still make some useful savings by negotiating with your lender on things like interest rates and fees. Your local mortgage adviser will be able to help you focus on the area you are most likely to achieve a saving, but as a guide, interest rates and establishment fees in particular are good places to start your negotiations. Good savings and credit history and good work history will help you here.
9. Cut back on expenditure
Reduce expenditure on vices and redirect the money into your home loan instead. Smoking, an after-work beer, morning coffee and that afternoon chocolate fix all add up over the course of the week. Add to that buying at least one lunch, breakfast or dinner a week and you could be putting more than $50 extra a week into your loan.
10. Look outside the big banks
The big banks aren’t the only, or even the best, places to borrow money. Many smaller banks and specialist lenders have very competitive loans available. Just because you haven’t heard of a lender doesn’t mean they aren’t a reputable lender – your mortgage adviser will know which lenders are credible and suitable for your situation.
11. Home loan portability
A lot of people don’t stay put in the one place for the 25 or 30 years their loan covers. Many home loans offer a feature called loan portability, which allows you to transfer your loan to a new property when you move on. Because it’s the same loan, you avoid the cost of paying exit and entry fees.
12. Set up an offset or salary credit account
Loans with offset facilities allow you to have your salary paid directly into the offset account which reduces the interest you pay on your home loan. The balance of the account is ‘offset’ against the balance of the loan for interest calculations and because you pay interest daily, this can save you a lot of money over the long term.
13. Align your repayments with your income cycle
If you have an offset account, changing your repayment dates to match your income cycle helps you to take advantage of the money sitting in your account for as
long as possible.
14. Don’t lower your repayments when interest rates fall
When interest rates are falling, it may seem tempting to let your home loan repayments keep pace with the minimum required repayments and pocket the difference. Before doing this, consider that keeping your repayments at the old level will shave a significant portion of principle off your loan, particularly if rates continue to drop.
15. Review your loan regularly Reviewing your loan regularly will help you to assess its effectiveness and take steps to correct any waste if necessary. Being on top of changes rather than waiting months or even years will potentially save you a lot of money.
16. Make use of internet banking
The convenience and cheapness make this an ideal tool to arrange your finances in a way that is most beneficial to you. Schedule payments to go when you derive the most benefit in terms of your home loan.
17. Combine for more saving power
Trying two or more of these tips in conjunction can ramp up your savings dramatically.
To discuss the competitive investment loan options available speak to Craig or Laurie today.
The marketing strategy is designed to reach the breadth of the active and passive buyer pool in the most effective manner, based on their Media consumption.
Our marketing strategy comprises of 3 key components; property portals, social and multi-channel digital strategy and print media.
There are 3 key portals, TradeMe Property, Realestate.co.nz and Oneroof.co.nz.
Property Portals generally attract active byers in the market, OneRoof has a unique position as it reaches both active and passive property buyers due to the diversity of information it has on the platform including property
The Ray White City Realty Group has introduced a state-of-the-art digital solution that is powered by artificial intelligence to reach the breadth of the active and passive buyer pool across social media and multiple digital channels, including news and other high traffic websites. The programme is fully automated in the back end, it creates an audience
listings, estimated property values, market news and commentary. It is important to run campaigns across all 3 to effectively cover the breadth of the active buyer pool and a part of the massive buyer market. None of the property portals have complete market coverage and each of these portals have a set of unique audiences.
segment of active buyers specific to the property as well as reaching the passive buyer pool. The campaign is structured to deliver quality leads for the property, and it auto optimises spend across social media and multiple digital channels, skewing the spend towards channels that are performing the best.
Print continues to play an important role to cover the breadth of the market reaching quality and highly engaged audiences. It takes criteriabased search out of the equation with respect to the active market and is the most effective medium to reach the all important passive buyer
market. This is clearly evidenced by the fact that the New Zealand herald has seen a massive 48% increase in its print readership over the last 18 months and average time spent reading the paper is over 50 minutes. The value of print is also well supported by agent feedback.
Based in the heart of Auckland City, Ray White Auckland Central is an award-winning agency in Auckland City that specialise in apartment sales for investment, luxury waterfront and lifestyle.
Our 183+ dedicated professionals who understand this unique market, are all top performers who have contributed to our phenomenal results. As the Auckland central market continues to experience unprecedented growth, our Lorne Street & Wynyard Quarter offices are well positioned to maintain its leadership in the market.
0800 002 420
www.rwaucklandcentral.co.nz
City Realty has a strategic partnership with LoanMarket, to provide clients with the best mortgage advice and rates with brokers throughout our offices that provide Home Loans, First Home Buyers Loans, Construction Loans, Refinance, Selfemployed Loans and Vehicle Finance – whatever the loan, LoanMarket can help.
Our office achieved the No.4 Ray White office in the world for 2018 and the No. 2 Ray White office in New Zealand for 2018 and we do the highest volume of sales across all agencies in New Zealand.
OUR LOANMARKET MORTGAGE ADVISORS
WE CAN NEGOTIATE A LOWER RATE. WORK WITH A QUALIFIED AND COMPETENT MORTGAGE ADVISER
Our strongest team yet. Selling right across Auckland Central