SEQ Greenfield Market Report - July 2025

SEQ

SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025

2

Whats Inside

Overview

05

Lead Indicators

06

Approvals and Finance Activity

09

SEQ Vacant Land Market

18

Development Sites

23

Outlook

25

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Greater Brisbane Property Market

10

3

About RPM RPM is at the forefront of the property industry, setting new standards in market intelligence, expertise, and creativity.

With a proven track record spanning three decades, our unsurpassed market knowledge and data-driven insights have ensured our partners achieve excellent outcomes, and our clients, exceptional returns.​

Our services include: • Project Sales & Marketing • Research Data & Insights • Land Transactions & Advisory

Partner

$4B+

Insights

100+

40,000+

55+

Highly respected, trusted development partner

Research partner of the Urban Development Institute of Victoria

Lot yield on current projects

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Development land transactions

A multi-disciplined team of property experts

Active projects across Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria

4

A Data Driven, Holistic Approach to Property RPM’s Research, Data & Insights division provides in-depth analysis on current local and overseas economic and property market conditions. The team consists of economists, property experts, and GIS analysts that provide real-time market intelligence, and analytical and strategic advice.

Our knowledge and expertise are an invaluable resource for RPM’s developer clients, empowering them to make intelligent, informed, and strategic decisions when evaluating residential developments and investment opportunities.

Our data and analysis help clients maximise their marketing efforts and achieve sales targets on their estates. Each month we collect extensive data on approximately 350 estates in Victoria, 140 estates in Queensland and 180 in New South Wales, providing our clients with a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics. This also underpins the core strategic decision-making of our own business.

This rich data helps our team and clients to better understand:

Volume of lots sold

Distribution of lots of a particular size

Dollar per sqm rates

Distribution of price points

Stock release levels

Activity levels by market, product & developer

Volume of stock returned to market

Stock level fluctuations

We profile every lot including lot size, price, orientation, sqm rate and title status, monitoring through to final sale.

Your dedicated research team: Michael Staedler

General Manager Research, Data & Insights

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Simon Brinkman

Research Manager - QLD Research, Data & Insights

Megha Saha

Research Analyst Research, Data & Insights

5

Overview • Soaring demand and tight supply push SEQ land prices up 15%, breaking the median rate per square metre beyond $1000 for the first time.

• Outer regions like Toowoomba and Scenic Rim surge as buyers prioritise affordability, space & lifestyle, and value.

• Rate cuts lift sentiment, with investor activity in Queensland outpacing Victoria for the first time in five years.

South East Queensland’s (SEQ) land market remains under sustained pressure, with demand continuing to outpace supply. Just over 8,000 vacant land lots* were registered in the year to March 2025 (the lowest figure in over a decade) highlighting the severity of supply constraints across the region.

Note: Vacant land lots refer to detached lots between 60-2,500sqm.

These do not include acreages.

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

At the same time, buyer demand has held firm, pushing available stock below one month in many key growth areas.

The median land price rose 15% over the year to reach $425,000, underpinned by shrinking lot sizes (now averaging 420sqm) and surging demand. The price per square metre rate has now crossed $1,000 for the first time on record – a milestone that underscores how acute land scarcity has become. The most significant growth was recorded in Toowoomba (+51%) and Scenic Rim (+29%), as buyers continue to seek affordable housing options.

Meanwhile, broader economic conditions are showing early signs of becoming more supportive. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 0.25 basis point rate cut in May, bringing the cash rate down to 3.85%, has begun to restore consumer sentiment. With borrowing power improving and repayments easing, confidence is returning to the market. Historically, interest rate reductions have spurred residential land activity, and the early rebound in the Consumer Confidence Index suggests a similar pattern may be emerging.

Investor sentiment is also strengthening. Queensland investor loans rose 24% year on year to 47,015 – overtaking Victoria for the first time in five years.

There is growing confidence in SEQ’s long term fundamentals: strong population growth, a pipeline of infrastructure investment, and the economic uplift expected from the 2032 Olympic Games.

The challenge to unlock future land supply only deepens every year we fall short of current demand.

With active project pipelines unevenly distributed and land constraints more pronounced in Brisbane, Moreton Bay, and Logan, further strategic planning responses will be critical to ensuring SEQ’s housing pipeline can keep pace with demand.

Clinton Trezise

Managing Director Queensland & New South Wales clinton@rpmgrp.com.au

Peter Neale

Managing Director Queensland & New South Wales petern@rpmgrp.com.au

6

Lead Indicators Australian Indicators Cash Rate

Queensland Indicators Consumer Price Index

Median House Price

Median Land Price (SEQ)

3.85%

2.4%

$960,000

$425,000

The second rate cut for 2025.

Unchanged from Q4 2024.

Greater Brisbane up 7% over the year.

Up 15% over the year.

May 2025

12 months to Q1 2025

March 2025

March 2025

Average Weekly Earnings

Gross Domestic Product

Unemployment Rate (QLD)

Vacancy Rate

$1,976

1.3%

4.0%

0.9%

Up 4.6% annually.

Increase over the year to March 2025.

In line with the national rate.

Still well below a balanced market.

November 2024

Year to March 2025

May 2025

March 2025

Unemployment Rate

Exchange Rate

Population Growth (QLD)

Building Approvals (QLD)

4.2%

$0.64

102,756

+14%

Up slightly in recent months.

Up from $0.60 USD in April 2025.

A 2% annual increase.

Led by increased new house approvals.

May 2025

May 2025

Year to December 2024

Year to April 2025

Note: Datasets are the latest available information SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

7

Population Growth Queensland Population Growth - 12 months to December 2024 160,000 140,000 120,000

Queensland added 102,756 new residents in 2024, a 2% annual increase. While the pace has eased from the record surges in 2023, growth remains well above the state average of 76,986.

What’s notable isn’t just the headline figure, but the consistency of elevated growth over multiple years.

Even with a slowdown in interstate migration and a more tempered pace of international arrivals, Queensland’s appeal hasn’t wavered.

100,000

Long Long term average: +76,986 pa

80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 -

Natural Increase

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Net Overseas Migration

Net Interstate Migration

Sep-2024

Jun-2023

Mar-2022

Dec-2020

Sep-2019

Jun-2018

Mar-2017

Dec-2015

Sep-2014

Jun-2013

Mar-2012

Dec-2010

Sep-2009

Jun-2008

Mar-2007

Dec-2005

Sep-2004

Jun-2003

Mar-2002

Dec-2000

Sep-1999

Jun-1998

Mar-1997

Dec-1995

Sep-1994

Jun-1993

Mar-1992

Dec-1990

Sep-1989

Jun-1988

Mar-1987

Dec-1985

Sep-1984

Jun-1983

(40,000)

Mar-1982

(20,000)

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

8

Interest Rates and Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Index (Index - 100)

Cash Rate (%)

130.0

5 4.5

120.0

The RBA has delivered two rate cuts so far in 2025, with the May decision bringing the cash rate down to 3.85%, returning it to levels last seen two years ago.

Early signs point to a lift in confidence. The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 92.1 in May, up from previous lows. It’s still well below long term norms, but the upward movement suggests households are beginning to feel some relief. That said, SEQ’s demand was already strong, underpinned by population growth and tight supply. What the rate cuts may do now is add fuel to that demand – particularly for first home buyers who were previously sidelined by serviceability hurdles.

In past cycles, falling rates have typically spurred greater market activity. If the trend continues, the second half of 2025 could see even more pressure on already constrained supply.

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

4 110.0

3.5 3

100.0

2.5 90.0

2 1.5

80.0

1 70.0

60.0 Jan-10

0.5

Jan-11

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25

Consumer Confidence Index

Cash Rate

0

Source: RBA and the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index

9

Investor Loans Count of Investor Loans - 12 Months

70,000

Investor activity in Queensland continues to build.

In the year to March, investor loans jumped 24% to 47,015. This marked the first time in five years that Queensland surpassed Victoria in total investor loans, edging ahead by 8%.

Several forces are fuelling this shift. Robust population growth is underpinning long term demand, while significant infrastructure investment is reshaping key growth corridors. The 2032 Olympic Games are also playing a part; sharpening investor focus on Queensland’s medium to long term potential.

This is occurring against a backdrop of an increasingly constrained housing market. Low land supply, rising rents, and sustained demand are creating fertile ground for capital growth.

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

NSW

Mar-20

VIC

QLD

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Mar-25

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

10

Greater Brisbane Property Snapshot Median Property Price ($) $1,200,000 $960,000

$1,000,000

$600,000 $415,000 $400,000

$200,000

Vacant Land

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

House

Unit

Jan-25

Aug-24

Mar-24

Oct-23

May-23

Dec-22

Jul-22

Feb-22

Sep-21

Apr-21

Nov-20

Jun-20

Jan-20

Aug-19

Mar-19

Oct-18

May-18

Dec-17

Jul-17

Feb-17

Sep-16

Apr-16

Nov-15

Jun-15

Jan-15

Aug-14

Mar-14

Oct-13

May-13

Dec-12

Jul-12

Feb-12

Sep-11

$0 Apr-11

The land market told a similar story. Brisbane’s median land price surged 16% year on year to hit $415,000 in March, overtaking Melbourne for the first time. Yet, despite this sharp rise, land in Brisbane is still considered undervalued when compared to house prices.

$685,000

Nov-10

Unit prices saw even stronger momentum, rising 15% to $685,000. This comes after a prolonged period where houses outpaced apartment growth.

$800,000

Jun-10

Greater Brisbane’s property market continues to outperform. The median house price climbed 7% over the year to March, reaching $960,000, making it the second most expensive capital city in the country behind only Sydney.

Source: Pricefinder and RPM Research, Data and Insights

11

Attractiveness of the Land Market Greater Brisbane House and Land Pricing $1,200,000

$1,000,000

Since 2021 Brisbane’s median land price has grown 66% to $415,000 and the build price has grown 59% to $468,456, with the total package price reaching $883,456.

Despite the rapid growth, it is still below the Greater Brisbane median house price of $960,000.

Median Land Price

$415k March 2025

Build Price

$468k

$800,000

$600,000 $382,703 $400,000

$294,416

$200,000

$-

March 2025

$250,000

$285,000

$315,000

$358,500

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Median Land Price Median Land Price

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

$414,022

$455,396

$468,456

Average Build Price

Average Build Price

$415,000

Mar-25

Median House Price (All)

Median House Price (All)

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

12

SEQ Lot Sizing Over Time Median Lot Size Registered (SEQ) 53% of lots sold in the past year were under 400sqm, up from just 26% a decade ago.

100% 90% 80%

26% 3%

60%

4%

50%

14%

30%

3% 8%

38%

70%

40%

17%

12%

19%

22% 26%

18% 19%

20%

9%

10%

12%

11%

5%

7%

8%

Mar-15

Mar-20

Mar-25

0%

Sub 300 sqm

301-350

351-400

401-450

19%

451-500

501-550

551+

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights, Pricefinder. Annual Settled Sales <2,500sqm

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

13

Current Supply Shortfall SEQ Lot Registrations - 12 month Rolling Total 40,000 Average Dwellings Required, 34,552 per annum

35,000 30,000

Historical Average Additional Lots Registered, 12,470 per annum

25,000

Historical Average Lots Registered, 22,082 per annum

20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

Mar-05

Rural

Mar-06

Mar-07

Units

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Standard Lots

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Historical Average Lots Registered

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Average Dwellings Required

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Mar-25

Source: SEQ Regional Plan 2023 and QLD Treasury

14

Land Supply - SEQ Detached Lot Registrations by Region 20,000 18,000

10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

Brisbane Noosa Note: Vacant land lots refer to detached lots between 60-2,500sqm.

These do not include acreages.

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Gold Coast Redland

Ipswich Scenic Rim

Lockyer Valley Somerset

Logan Sunshine Coast

Moreton Bay Toowoomba

Mar-25

Mar-24

Mar-23

Mar-22

Mar-21

Mar-20

Mar-19

Mar-18

Mar-17

Mar-16

Mar-15

Mar-14

Mar-13

Mar-12

Mar-11

Mar-10

Mar-09

Mar-08

0 Mar-07

There is a clear, critical need for faster planning approvals and infrastructure investment to unlock development-ready land and keep pace with future housing demand.

12,000

Mar-06

This drop comes at a time when population growth and buyer demand remain pressing. Most key regions (including Brisbane, Logan, Moreton Bay, and the Sunshine Coast) saw year on year declines in lot registrations.

14,000

Mar-05

Land supply across SEQ continues to severely fall behind demand. Just 8,106 vacant land lots* were registered in the year to March 2025, the lowest annual figure in over a decade.

16,000

Source: Queensland Treasury

15

Supply by Region Estates

Sum of Lot Yield

Sum of Total Gross Sales

Sum of Lots Remaining

Average Sales Per month

Years Supply Remaining

Brisbane

12

3,821

2,403

1,422

35

3

Gold Coast

8

6,461

2,125

4,340

33

11

Ipswich

27

29,572

13,402

16,450

203

7

Logan

22

40,562

14,509

25,925

181

12

Moreton Bay

32

24,320

12,905

11,621

210

5

Redland Bay

6

4,649

1,162

3,487

7

40

Scenic Rim

11

3,174

991

2,209

26

7

Sunshine Coast

12

28,339

11,608

16,733

101

14

Toowoomba

18

4,477

1,639

2,842

33

7

Grand Total

148

145,375

60,744

85,029

830

9

Region

RPM’s analysis of active estates across SEQ shows that future supply is unevenly distributed. Across 148 active projects, there are around 85,000 lots remaining. At historical average sales rates, that equates to roughly 9 years of supply.

But this figure masks wide regional differences.

Moreton Bay and Brisbane are facing the tightest conditions, with only 4.6 and 3.4 years of supply left, respectively. In contrast, Ipswich and Logan are better positioned to absorb future demand, with significantly higher years of supply available.

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Median Price, Size and Rate OVERALL Size

420sqm

Price

$425k

SUNSHINE COAST Rate/sqm

Size

$1,102

503sqm Size

401sqm

SOMERSET

Size

600sqm

Price

$362k

Size

420sqm

Rate/sqm

$603 TOOWOOMBA

REDLAND

LOGAN

GOLD COAST

IPSWICH Size

375sqm

Price

$406k

Size

Price

$348k

$445k

Rate/sqm

$1,110

Price

$547k

Rate/sqm

$1,302

Price

$702k

Rate/sqm

$1,623

GOLD COAST Size

489sqm

Price

$720k

Rate/sqm

$1,474

LOGAN

SCENIC RIM

700sqm Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

Size

Rate/sqm

$1,082

Price

BRISBANE

433sqm

IPSWICH

SCENIC RIM

$1,113

REDLAND

MORETON BAY

BRISBANE

$560k

Rate/sqm

MORETON BAY

SUNSHINE COAST

TOOWOOMBA

Price

Size

Rate/sqm

$497

404sqm

Price

$383k

Rate/sqm

$947

Banya

What does a 375sqm lot cost?

$520,500

Morayfield $429,000 Lilywood

Caboolture South

$380,000

$385,000

Narangba $435,000

Dakabin $465,000

Warner $579,000

Walloon $354,000

Collingwood Park

Victoria Point

$385,500

Deebing Heights $380,900

Redland Bay $499,900

Greenbank Ripley

$394,000

$435,000 Flagstone

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights - Q2 2025

$521,550

$360,000

Ormeau Hills South Maclean $420,000

$637,000

18

SEQ Land Market SEQ Lot Sales by Price Bracket

Contributing Share of Lot Sales by LGA 29%

$500k+

18% 13%

Land prices across SEQ continued to climb in the year to March, rising by $54,000 (+15%) to reach a median of $425,000. That’s more than $1,000 in value added each week.

All major regions recorded annual growth, ranging from a 13% increase in Brisbane to a staggering 51% in Toowoomba. Most regions across SEQ have now crossed the $400,000 median price point, with only Logan, Scenic Rim, and Toowoomba still sitting just below that threshold.

At the same time, the median lot size nudged down to 420sqm, 1% smaller than a year ago. This helped push the price per square metre rate past $1,000 for the first time on record – a clear indicator of growing demand and constrained supply.

12%

$450k $500k

Scenic Rim, 4.8%

5%

Gold Coast, 4.9%

19%

$400k $450k

Toowoomba, 2.5%

Redland Bay, 3.7%

5%

Logan, 33.2%

10% 9%

Sunshine Coast, 7.0% 25%

$350k $400k

21% 11% 13%

$300k $350k

Ipswich, 18.4%

23% 23%

Moreton Bay, 22.6%

2%

<$300k

Q1 2025

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

Brisbane, 3.0%

22% 39%

Q1 2024

Q1 2023

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

19

Median Price by LGA SEQ land prices have surged 15% in the past year, leaving Logan, Toowoomba, and Scenic Rim as the only LGAs with a median under $400,000.

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Annual Change

%

Brisbane

$635,000

$622,500

$578,911

$542,958

$643,000

$520,000

$600,000

$645,000

$622,500

$644,000

$725,000

$704,000

$702,000

$79,500

13%

Gold Coast

$547,000

$500,000

$480,000

$614,000

$487,900

$590,450

$695,950

$739,450

$566,450

$619,000

$645,000

$710,000

$719,975

$153,525

27%

Ipswich

$290,250

$325,900

$303,000

$315,000

$318,900

$340,000

$329,900

$335,000

$345,900

$357,000

$375,000

$368,000

$405,900

$60,000

17%

Logan

$255,000

$282,120

$282,250

$285,000

$291,750

$302,900

$317,000

$314,000

$329,000

$340,000

$370,000

$376,000

$382,700

$53,700

16%

Moreton Bay

$309,750

$361,900

$350,000

$344,500

$379,500

$375,000

$373,000

$382,200

$390,000

$396,000

$395,000

$450,000

$445,000

$55,000

14%

Redland Bay

$540,000

$471,750

$637,500

$600,000

$630,000

$462,750

$450,000

$413,000

$464,250

$472,000

$495,000

$515,000

$547,000

$82,750

18%

Scenic Rim

$195,000

$212,000

$255,000

$240,000

$251,400

$279,000

$279,000

$291,950

$270,625

$299,000

$299,000

$300,250

$348,000

$77,375

29%

Sunshine Coast

$385,600

$412,000

$405,000

$421,000

$394,000

$424,650

$455,000

$446,500

$445,000

$449,000

$485,000

$550,000

$560,000

$115,000

26%

Toowoomba

$230,000

$240,000

$230,000

$211,500

$250,000

$317,750

$289,500

$289,500

$239,900

$305,000

$319,750

$282,500

$361,500

$121,600

51%

SEQ

$301,000

$335,000

$325,700

$330,000

$335,000

$349,450

$346,500

$357,800

$369,000

$387,000

$395,000

$398,700

$425,000

$56,000

15%

LGA

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

20

Median Size by LGA SEQ’s median land size in March 2025 was 420sqm, down just 1% from the same time last year.

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Annual Change

Annual Change (%)

Brisbane

450

450

419

419

430

412

405

419

404

408

420

400

433

29

7%

Gold Coast

420

420

490

475

440

437

455

522

450

450

420

467

489

39

9%

Ipswich

420

422

407

435

418

400

405

420

425

420

420

400

375

-50

-12%

Logan

415

420

400

412

406

413

425

420

423

441

420

420

404

-19

-4%

Moreton Bay

400

402

400

390

400

400

400

400

400

398

401

408

401

1

0%

Redland Bay

452

480

450

426

450

418

420

400

434

443

441

429

420

-14

-3%

Scenic Rim

509

560

781

648

711

640

607

680

654

648

600

593

700

46

7%

Sunshine Coast

379

392

392

410

375

392

468

464

441

449

430

428

503

62

14%

Toowoomba

619

605

648

578

600

724

691

701

648

648

610

600

600

-48

-7%

Grand Total

420

425

412

420

420

413

420

420

425

436

420

420

420

-5

-1%

LGA

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

21

$ Per SQM Rates by LGA SEQ broke the $1,000/sqm mark in March 2025 after a 17% annual gain.

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Annual Change

%

Brisbane

$1,411

$1,383

$1,383

$1,297

$1,495

$1,262

$1,481

$1,541

$1,541

$1,578

$1,726

$1,760

$1,623

$82

5%

Gold Coast

$1,302

$1,190

$980

$1,293

$1,109

$1,353

$1,530

$1,418

$1,259

$1,376

$1,536

$1,520

$1,474

$215

17%

Ipswich

$691

$772

$744

$724

$763

$850

$815

$798

$814

$850

$893

$920

$1,082

$269

33%

Logan

$614

$672

$706

$693

$719

$733

$746

$748

$778

$771

$881

$895

$947

$169

22%

Moreton Bay

$774

$900

$875

$884

$949

$938

$933

$956

$975

$995

$985

$1,103

$1,110

$135

14%

Redland Bay

$1,195

$983

$1,417

$1,408

$1,400

$1,107

$1,071

$1,033

$1,070

$1,065

$1,122

$1,200

$1,302

$233

22%

Scenic Rim

$383

$379

$327

$370

$354

$436

$460

$429

$414

$461

$498

$507

$497

$83

20%

Sunshine Coast

$1,017

$1,051

$1,033

$1,028

$1,051

$1,083

$973

$962

$1,009

$1,000

$1,128

$1,287

$1,113

$104

10%

Toowoomba

$372

$397

$355

$366

$417

$439

$419

$413

$370

$471

$525

$471

$603

$232

63%

Grand Total

$717

$788

$791

$786

$799

$846

$825

$852

$868

$888

$940

$949

$1,012

$144

17%

LGA

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

22

Sales Activity by LGA Sales volumes have been constrained by a lack of available land on market.

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Dec-24

Mar-25

Annual Change

%

Brisbane

83

76

76

36

87

123

166

202

191

174

93

67

52

-139

-73%

Gold Coast

71

37

76

110

62

90

51

70

62

64

97

89

84

22

35%

Ipswich

597

464

243

247

253

377

377

399

387

360

381

374

294

-93

-24%

Logan

637

528

455

376

369

521

471

653

709

717

566

719

551

-158

-22%

Moreton Bay

310

217

134

154

141

317

283

380

407

418

579

401

369

-38

-9%

Redland Bay

31

96

14

23

29

85

73

107

103

129

134

93

64

-39

-38%

Scenic Rim

67

41

28

23

34

69

64

45

84

91

125

70

50

-34

-40%

Sunshine Coast

253

213

101

116

155

183

150

212

243

240

173

106

107

-136

-56%

Toowoomba

23

38

23

15

8

37

29

48

54

97

100

104

41

-13

-24%

Grand Total

2,072

1,710

1,150

1,100

1,138

1,802

1,664

2,116

2,240

2,290

2,248

2,023

1,612

-628

-28%

LGA

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

23

Development Sites

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

24

Development Sites James Matley

Sales Director Queensland Transactions & Advisory james@rpmgrp.com.au

Confidence in SEQ’s greenfield development market has continued to grow since our November update, with demand for developable land reaching unprecedented levels. Competition is fierce, especially for large scale sites within zoned land and existing PDAs (Priority Development Areas), as supply tightens and policy changes begin to reshape the landscape.

Recent government announcements, including the introduction of new Investigation Areas and a new PDA, have only sharpened the focus on SEQ. The region’s strong population growth, paired with deepening housing affordability concerns in inner-city suburbs, is pushing more buyers and developers towards greenfield estates.

But unlocking supply is proving difficult. Infrastructure limitations and planning delays are slowing land delivery across key corridors. Developers are zeroing in on sites that either offer near term planning

SEQ development land market heats up as confidence builds.

certainty (typically standard contracts with short settlements) or long-term strategic value (secured through options, staged settlements, or structured transactions and development agreements).

Recent transactions activity underscores this trend.

Land values continue to climb, buoyed by strong interest from both local and interstate players.

While elevated construction costs and interest rates remain headwinds, confidence in SEQ’s long-term fundamentals is holding firm.

Notably, the affordability gap between SEQ and Victoria is narrowing. For interstate groups, particularly those based in Melbourne, SEQ now presents a compelling window to establish a pipeline and ride the next wave of growth.

Looking ahead, we anticipate a rise in strategic acquisition, joint ventures, and more direct engagement with all levels of government. Developers are positioning now for the opportunities emerging over the next decade across one of Australia’s fastest growing regions.

Key Takeaways

Competition remains fierce, especially for large scale sites Developers are zeroing in on sites that either offer near term planning or long-term strategic value We anticipate a rise in more long term strategic acquisitions and joint ventures that allow time to navigate a complex approval process

25

Outlook

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

26

Headwinds

Affordability

Land Availability

Trade Shortages

Construction Costs

Rapid price growth has pushed pricing beyond the grasp of many buyers. Brisbane has the second most expensive house prices of all Australian capital cities.

Infrastructure, planning complexity, and fewer active estates will continue to constrain land supply.

With a large pipeline of public sector projects, there is likely to be further competition for subcontractors and labour.

Although growth in construction costs is slowing, they will remain elevated and not go backwards.

27

Tailwinds

Stimulus

Population Growth

Interest Rates

Australian Dream

With the housing crisis a key political issue, further stimulus is planned from Federal and State governments particularly around FHBs.

Stronger than average population growth expected for Queensland in the coming years, partly due to the large pipeline of construction jobs.

Economists are predicting further interest rate cuts throughout 2025.

The Australian dream is still alive with people wanting to own their home.

28

Concluding Remarks SEQ’s greenfield land market is heading into the second half of 2025 with momentum, but the tension between supply and demand is only getting sharper.

The fundamentals are hard to ignore: rapid population growth, strong buyer and investor appetite, and a widening gap between the demand for housing and the pace of land delivery.

The market is already showing signs of acceleration.

Interest rate cuts have begun to stir confidence, lifting borrowing capacity and nudging previously sidelined buyers back into the market. Investor activity is rising fast with Queensland overtaking Victoria for the first time in five years. The state’s long-term outlook is also winning favour thanks to sustained infrastructure investment and the countdown to the 2032 Olympic Games.

But the path won’t only be about demand, access to required new or upgraded infrastructure along with planning reforms is key for unlocking more land for development.

We recorded the lowest number of lot registrations in five years, and most growth areas are running on less than a months’ stock. As a result, land prices are climbing, and the price per square metre rate has broken through the $1,000 mark for the first time.

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

The challenge remains finding ways to boost new supply fast enough to meet demand. Developers are adapting, targeting development sites with either fast-tracked delivery potential or longer-term strategic value.

Strategic land plays, joint ventures, and structured deals are all on the rise. Engagement with government, on planning, zoning, and infrastructure, will be critical in the months ahead. In a market where demand is a given, the real impact will be how quickly and effectively supply can be brought to market.

Clinton Trezise

Managing Director Queensland & New South Wales clinton@rpmgrp.com.au

Peter Neale

Managing Director Queensland & New South Wales petern@rpmgrp.com.au

For more information, please visit: www.rpmgrp.com.au F or a detailed market analysis or a tailored report, email the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au

29

RPM’s SEQ Team Project Sales & Marketing Clinton Trezise

Managing Director Queensland & New South Wales clinton@rpmgrp.com.au

Peter Neale

Managing Director Queensland & New South Wales petern@rpmgrp.com.au

Jasmin McDougall

Project Marketing Manager Queensland & New South Wales jasmin@rpmgrp.com.au

Research, Data & Insights Michael Staedler

General Manager Research, Data & Insights m.steadler@rpmgrp.com.au

Andrew Raponi

Senior Research Manager Research, Data & Insights a.raponi@rpmgrp.com.au

Simon Brinkman

Research Manager Queensland & New South Wales simon@rpmgrp.com.au

Land Transactions & Advisory Tim Hyland

National Strategy Manager Transactions & Advisory tim@rpmgrp.com.au

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

James Matley

Sales Director Queensland Transactions & Advisory james@rpmgrp.com.au

Phil Nguyen

Transactions Analyst Transactions & Advisory phil@rpmgrp.com.au

Megha Saha

Research Analyst Queensland & New South Wales megha@rpmgrp.com.au

30

Unlocking Australia’s Property Landscape View our latest reports through the QR code below, or for detailed insights or custom reporting, contact the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au

Disclaimer Although reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this information, RPM Real Estate Group Pty Ltd take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information contained herein. It is recommended that all the information be verified if it is to be used for commercial purposes.

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT JULY 2025 | © RPM GROUP

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