RPM Victorian Greenfield Market Report - Q1 2026

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VIC Greenfield Market Report Q1 2026

MARKET INTELLIGENCE SEQ APARTMENTS AND TOWNHOMES MARKET REPORT APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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Welcome Luke Kelly National Managing Director Built Form luke@rpmgrp.com.au

Victoria’s housing demand has remained resilient in the face of mounting headwinds. The state is gaining population, affordability relative to other state markets has improved, and owner occupier activity is holding up. The question now is whether buyers can bridge the gap between what they desire in a home and what they can afford to build in the current environment.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Housing demand remains resilient. The challenge is bridging the gap between what buyers desire and what they can afford.

In our Q&A session, ANZ Associate Director of Property Daniel Gradwell notes that while conditions aren’t grinding things to a halt, concern around construction cost is elevated across every developer conversation. It is not a supply chain story; materials are available, but excavation, civil works, and road infrastructure are all costing more. The upside in the near term is that much of the titled stock currently on the market was serviced before those cost increases landed. Looking further out, those pressures compound on top of challenges the industry is already navigating.

This is also shaping how developers approach land transactions. With PSP approvals slowing, available sites smaller and more fragmented, and competition for well located land intensifying, developers’ margins for error have narrowed. RPM National Strategy Manager of Transactions & Advisory, Tim Hyland outlines how a data first methodology is driving better acquisition outcomes across residential and commercial asset classes in the current cycle.

This report explores these and other dynamics in detail, unpacking the latest data and sentiment shifts shaping the Victorian greenfield market. We hope it provides a clear view of where demand is headed, what buyers are seeking, and how the industry is adjusting.

F or more information, please visit: www.rpmgrp.com.au F or a detailed market analysis or a tailored report, email the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au

What’s Inside Lead Indicators

05

Western Growth Corridor

15

Q&A with Daniel Gradwell

06

Northern Growth Corridor

19

Development Sites

07

South East Growth Corridor

23

Data Driven Acquisition Strategies

08

Greater Geelong Corridor

27

Vacant Land Market

09

Ballarat

31

Vacant Land Market Overview

10

Bendigo

35

Gross Lot Sales

11

Melbourne and Geelong Buyer Surveys

12

Macedon & Mitchell

39

Growth Corridor Snapshot Q1 2026

13

Drouin & Warragul

43

What Does a 350sqm Lot Cost?

14

Victorian Greenfield Market Outlook

47

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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A Data Driven, Holistic Approach to Property RPM’s Market Intelligence division provides in-depth analysis on current local and overseas economic and property market conditions. The team consists of economists, property experts, and GIS analysts that provide real-time market intelligence, and analytical and strategic advice.

Our knowledge and expertise are an invaluable resource for RPM’s developer clients, empowering them to make intelligent, informed, and strategic decisions when evaluating residential developments and investment opportunities.

Our data and analysis help clients maximise their marketing efforts and achieve sales targets on their estates. Each month we collect extensive data on approximately 350 estates in Victoria, 180 estates in Queensland and 180 in New South Wales, providing our clients with a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics. This also underpins the core strategic decision-making of our own business.

This rich data helps our team and clients to better understand:

Volume of lots sold

Distribution of lots of a particular size

Dollar per sqm rates

Distribution of price points

Stock release levels

Activity levels by market, product & developer

Volume of stock returned to market

Stock level fluctuations

We profile every lot including lot size, price, orientation, sqm rate and title status, monitoring through to final sale.

Your dedicated Market Intelligence team: RPM is also the founding data partner of Terralytics, an independent, next-generation data intelligence platform built for developers, builders, planners, government bodies and industry partners across Australia’s greenfield land markets.

For more information, please visit: terralytics.com.au

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Michael Staedler

General Manager Market Intelligence

Andrew Raponi

Senior Research Manager Market Intelligence

Laurence Rao

Research Manager - VIC Market Intelligence

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Lead Indicators Cash Rate

4.35%

AUS Unemployment Rate May 2026

4.30%

VIC Annual Wage Growth Index

Mar 2026

3.20%

Dec 2025

Melb. Median House Price

$991,500

Mar 2026

The third rate rise this year.

Edged higher during 2026, although remains low from a long term sense.

Victoria’s 3.2% annual wage growth to Q4 2025 sits slightly below the national average of around 3.4%.

Rising 1.9% from December 2025 and 7.7% year-on-year.

Quarterly GDP

Savings Ratio

VIC Avg. Weekly Earnings

VIC State Final Demand

0.80

Dec 2025

6.90%

Dec 2025

$2,080

Nov 2025

0.69%

Dec 2025

Australia’s economy grew 0.8% in Q4 2025 and 2.6% over the year, indicating a gradual recovery.

The household savings ratio increased to 6.9% in Q4 2025, up from 6.1% in Q3 2025 and 5.5% a year earlier.

A solid 4.4% annual gain, above the national average.

SFD keep increased 0.69% in Q4 2025, moderating from 1.59% in Q3 2025.

AUS Annual Inflation

Exchange Rate AUD/USD

VIC Unemployment

VIC Employment Participation

4.60%

Mar 2026

Inflation remains above the target band, highlighting persistent cost pressures across the economy.

$0.66

Mar 2026

Reflecting moderate strength supported by commodity prices but still sensitive to movements from the RBA.

4.80%

Mar 2026

Increased during 2026, to be the highest among all states and territories.

67.3%

Mar 2026

Remains elevated indicating a strong share of the population is either employed or actively seeking work.

All information is as of the latest available datasets.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Q&A WITH DANIEL GRADWELL

Victoria’s Market Fundamentals Daniel Gradwell Associate Director of Property ANZ

How do Victoria’s market fundamentals look heading into the second half of 2026?

Melbourne is the only capital city where affordability has improved over the last couple of years. If you want to buy a house in Melbourne, you need around 45% of average income to service a typical mortgage. In Sydney, that figure is 68%, and even Adelaide and Brisbane are sitting in the mid-50s now.

That affordability bonus of moving interstate has basically completely vanished. People aren’t leaving Victoria like they were a couple of years ago, and the outflow has stopped. I think Victoria will become the fastest-growing state in terms of population now that we’re not losing people to other parts of the country.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Victoria will become the fastest-growing state in terms of population now that we’re not losing people to other parts of the country.

What is Melbourne’s relative affordability doing for first home buyer activity?

We can see first home buyers coming into the market at a better rate than most other parts of the country, and that’s been the case for a couple of years now.

The first home buyer guarantee scheme is also making a material difference, and we can see that across the entire country.

How are construction cost pressures and rising rates affecting feasibility and staging decisions?

It’s coming up in every single conversation we’re having with development clients right now. It’s not at the point where it’s grinding things to a halt, but concern is definitely elevated. The difference from Covid is that supply is largely available. It’s not a supply chain story; it’s just that we have to pay more for the product.

You’ve got excavators running on diesel, pipes going in for water and sewerage, bitumen for local roads, all of that is costing more.

The good news is that a lot of the titled stock in the market right now was serviced before those cost increases landed, so that land isn’t going to incur the recent uptick in servicing costs. Looking further out though, it doesn’t help, and it kind of compounds on top of other issues the industry is already facing into.

What’s your overall outlook for the Victorian greenfield market?

Affordability looks quite good right now, and that’s supporting first home buyer demand and keeping population in Victoria.

Victoria looks set to become the fastest-growing state in the country, and that underlying population growth means the demand for new housing will grow.

The opportunity is there to meet that demand, but the challenge is how do we actually bring it to market, given uncertainty, interest rates increasing, construction costs increasing and so on.

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Development Sites

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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Data Driven Acquisition Strategies Tim Hyland National Strategy Manager Transactions & Advisory tim@rpmgrp.com.au

Victoria’s development land pipeline has tightened considerably over recent years.

PSP approvals have slowed, available stock is comprised of smaller and more fragmented parcels, and competition for well located sites is intensifying. The margin for error has narrowed with it, particularly for developers still applying the same acquisition processes they used in a more forgiving cycle.

The projects that perform well across both residential and commercial sectors tend to share a common thread. The initial site acquisitions were supported by a more rigorous process where the data comes first, then drives the key decisions.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Strategies that pinpoint high growth opportunities and emerging development hotspots.

RPM Transactions & Advisory (T&A) layers GIS mapping across designated growth areas, infrastructure constraints, and landholding data to more accurately reveal a site’s true value. Historical transaction data and real time market trends narrow the field further, pinpointing high growth opportunities and emerging development hotspots before they are widely recognised.

Predictive modelling then stress tests each opportunity against planning controls, market demand, and projected population growth, producing a sharper picture of where genuine development potential exists.

Proximity to transport, employment, and community amenity shapes absorption and end buyer demand in ways that are measurable well before a residential site goes to market. The developers consistently making strong acquisitions understand that this analysis belongs at the beginning of the process, not appended to a feasibility after an agreement is signed.

RPM T&A extends this analytical framework across all asset classes. In the data centre sector, power grid capacity and network infrastructure are mapped to identify sites viable for digital infrastructure both now and into the future, with connectivity, energy availability, and planning considerations all assessed as part of the site selection process.

For childcare centres and school sites, demographic modelling of birth rates, family density, and catchment supply gaps produces a far clearer picture of where demand will be in five years than any current survey can offer. This is the methodology that has underpinned several of RPM’s record breaking transactions in recent years.

Whether residential or commercial, the underlying discipline is consistent: translate complex datasets into a clear view of where opportunity is, enabling smarter, faster, and more strategic acquisition decisions. Opportunities that once generated modest interest are now producing genuine competitive tension.

For more information on development site opportunities, contact Tim Hyland tim@rpmgrp.com.au

Vacant Land Market

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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Vacant Land Market Overview Rod Anderson National Managing Director Communities rod@rpmgrp.com.au

Purchaser sentiment softened through Q1 2026, with gross lot sales of 3,515 across metropolitan and regional growth areas representing a 30% quarterly decline and sitting 3% below the same period in 2025.

The quarterly pullback reflects both the direct impact of two consecutive RBA rate rises in February and March and the broader deterioration in consumer confidence as household cost pressures intensified through the quarter.

The affordability tailwind that sustained momentum through 2025 has reversed. Three rate cuts delivered through last year, combined with wage growth outpacing inflation for most of the period, had materially improved borrowing conditions. The February and March hikes have unwound a meaningful portion of that improvement, reducing borrowing capacity and reintroducing uncertainty around the rate outlook. Developer end-of-year campaigns that helped drive Q4 activity have also wound down, removing a layer of short-term demand stimulus from the market.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Sequential rate rises through early 2026 tempered the momentum built through 2025, with buyers recalibrating against a more uncertain interest rate and cost of living environment.

Titled stock continues to influence sales activity, though its share has moderated. Across metropolitan growth areas the proportion remains lower than regional corridors, where titled lot dominance (particularly in Geelong and Ballarat) continues to defer new stage releases. Melbourne’s median lot price lifted 3.4% over the quarter to $398,250, breaking toward the $400,000 mark that has acted as a ceiling for six consecutive quarters, while the median lot size held steady at 350sqm.

Average trading days for lots sold in Melbourne improved further to 157 days, down 6% on the prior quarter and 14% annually — the continuation of a trend that points to more efficient stock absorption in metropolitan estates despite the softer headline sales result.

Smaller product lots, including townhomes, small lot housing code product and conventional lots between 300 and 450sqm in regional areas, continued to account for a growing share of transactions as affordability constraints directed buyers toward more efficient configurations.

Q1 2026 Lots Sold (All Regions)

Melbourne Median Lot Price

-30% over quarter

+3.4% over quarter

3,515

-3% annually

Melbourne Trading Days of Lots Sold

157

-6% over quarter

-14% annually

$398,250

+5% annually

Melbourne Median Lot Size

350sqm 0% over quarter

0% annually

12%

K

13% 12%

11

11%

K

12%

Gross Lot Sales 10%

29%

K

36%

0%

Lot Sales by Price Bracket in Melbourne 5%

10%

March Quarter 2026

15%

20%

25%

March Quarter 2025

44% 30%

35%

40%

45%

% Contribution to Total Gross Lot Sales Q1 2026

50%

March Quarter 2024 35%

$425K > <

13%

28%

Geelong

24%

5%

13% $401K-$425K

Western

Ballarat

12%

3%

9%

Bendigo 12%

2%

13%

Macedon & Mitchell

$376K-$400K

12%

2%

11% $351K-$375K

27%

Drouin & Warragul

12% 10%

20% 29%

South East

<=$350K

28% Northern

36% 44% 0%

5%

10%

March Quarter 2026

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

15%

20%

25%

March Quarter 2025

30%

35%

40%

March Quarter 2024

45%

50%

Percentages rounded to the nearest whole number

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

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Melbourne and Geelong Buyer Surveys Owner Occupier Type First Home Second Home Third Home Fourth Home Other

Purchase Type 58% 27% 8% 3% 5%

Townhome House & Land Land Only

Household Type Group Household Single Couple Family

1% 21% 23% 54%

Australia India Iraq Philippines

38% 32% 8% 7%

6% 5% 12% 21% 56%

>Four Three Two One

Owner Occupier vs. Investor

>$950k

11%

$900-950k

3%

$850-900k

4%

29%

$800-850k

9%

Investor

$750-800k

9%

$700-750k

13%

$650-700k

12%

$600-650k

15%

$550-600k

12%

$500-550k

5%

71%

$450-500k

4%

$400-450k

1%

Owner Occupier

<$400k

2%

No. of Visits to Estate Prior to Purchase

Data collected from approximately 273 RPM Buyer Surveys over Q1 2026

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

16% 20% 64%

Country of Origin

Period to Start Build After Settlement >12 Months 6-12 Months 3-6 Months Within 3 Months Immediately

Home & Land Budget

Size of Home Including Garage 12% 12% 29% 47%

>30 sqs 26-30 sqs 21-25 sqs 16-20 sqs <15 sqs

No. Storeys Considered 18% 17% 32% 26% 7%

Undecided Double Storey Single Storey

9% 21% 69%

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Growth Corridor Snapshot Q1 2026 Northern Corridor

Western Corridor

Gross Lot Sales

New Lot Releases

Median Lot Price

-404 sales

-233 releases

+$6,000

981

856

$390k

Median Size (sqm)

Gross Lot Sales

New Lot Releases

Median Lot Price

No change

-629 sales

- 65 releases

+$14,500

350

Ballarat

726

$380k

350 +1sqm

Bendigo

Greater Geelong

Gross Lot Sales

New Lot Releases

Median Lot Price

-66 sales

+21 releases

+$57,000

174

937

Median Size (sqm)

52

$302k

Median Size (sqm)

Gross Lot Sales

New Lot Releases

Median Lot Price

+47sqm

-55 sales

+44 releases

+$3,000

491

471

268

$385k

Median Size (sqm)

400

Macedon & Mitchell

+1sqm

Ballarat

South East Corridor Gross Lot Sales

688

-306 sales

New Lot Releases

827

+177 releases

Drouin & Warragul Median Lot Price

$448k +$13,000

Median Size (sqm)

376 +26sqm

Bendigo

Gross Lot Sales

86

-23 sales

New Lot Releases

80

+8 releases

Western Corridor

Median Lot Price

$315k -$3,500

Median Size (sqm)

497 -13sqm

Geelong

Macedon & Mitchell

Gross Lot Sales

New Lot Releases

Median Lot Price

-43 sales

+31 releases

-$5,000

100

Northern Corridor

105

$265k

Median Size (sqm)

Gross Lot Sales

New Lot Releases

Median Lot Price

-4sqm

-4 sales

+14releases

+$10,800

534

78

72

$372k

Median Size (sqm)

611 -1sqm

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics - as at Q1 2026. All differences are expressed as changes from the previous quarter. Price figures have been rounded to the nearest ‘000’.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

South East Corridor

Drouin & Warragul

Wallan $330,000 Beveridge $346,000

What Does a 350sqm Lot Cost?

Mickleham $426,000

Bacchus Marsh $335,500 Melton Sth $325,000

Warragul $278,000

Kalkallo $398,000 Donnybrook $377,050

Sunbury $370,500

Regional Victoria

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Strathtulloh $363,000

Huntly $224,000

Greenvale $550,000

Wollert $445,000

Bulla $375,000 Bonnie Brook Fraser Rise $435,000 $403,000 Rockbank $368,000 Tarneit $403,000

Kilmore $252,000

Craigieburn $474,000

Woodstock $360,000

Manor Lakes $360,000 Mambourin $368,000

Deanside $405,000 Truganina $402,000

Melbourne CBD

Wyndham Vale $337,000 Werribee $389,500

Officer $478,000 Corio $331,000

Key Low

Cranbourne East $451,000

High

Note: Locations are approximate only Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Charlemont $389,000

Leopold $332,000

Armstrong Creek $360,000

Pakenham $399,000

Clyde Nth $448,000 Clyde $433,000

Nar Nar Goon Nth $395,000 Nar Nar Goon $387,000

Western Growth Corridor

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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Western Growth Corridor - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q1 2026

937

-40% vs. Q4 2025

The Western growth corridor recorded 937 gross lot sales in Q1 2026, down 40% from Q4 2025’s 1,566. Despite the pullback, the West remained one of Melbourne’s most active corridors, with family buyer participation and steady underlying enquiry holding firm. Established estates with stronger amenities continued to outperform newer releases.

Titled stock again shaped activity, with buyers favouring immediate build readiness and shorter delivery timelines.

Builder promotions across Wyndham’s northern precincts helped offset softer demand periods through the quarter.

Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales

Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)

Average Trading Days

3,000

250

2,500

200

2,000 150 1,500 100 1,000 50

500

0

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Gross Lot Sales

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Ave. Sales (10 Years)

Average Trading Days

0

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

1,000 135 800 600

125

Western Growth Corridor - Vacant Land Stock 400

New Lots Released - Q1 2026

726

200

120

0

115

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Number ofQtr. Lots Added to Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26

-8% vs. Q4 2025

New supply eased modestly in Q1 2026, with 726 lots released across Wyndham and Melton, down 8% on Q4 2025.

Developers focused on absorbing existing titled and near titled stock rather than pushing new supply into a softening sales environment.

Stock returns declined again, pointing to improved buyer retention despite two rate rises through the quarter. Active estates fell to around 126 by quarter’s end, their lowest level in over two years. That consolidation reduces head to head competition between projects and supports a more stable pricing environment heading into the rest of 2026.

New Lot Releases

Stock Returned to Market

Active Estates

Active Estates

1,800

155

1,600

150

1,400

145

1,200

140

1,000 135 800 130

600

125

400 200

120

0

115

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 New Lot Releases

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

17

130

Stock Returned to Market

Active Estates

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

$340,000 320

$330,000 $320,000

18

310

Western Growth Corridor - Lot Price and Size $310,000

300

$300,000 $290,000

Lot Price & Size - Q1 2026

$379,500

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

+4% vs. Q4 2025

290

Median Lot Size

Median Lot Price

$390,000

360

$380,000

Median lot pricing lifted 4% in Q1 2026, from $365,000 in Q4 2025 to $379,500, while the median lot size held steady at 350sqm. Per sqm rates improved in line with the price movement.

At $379,500 for 350sqm, the Western corridor offers the strongest value per sqm of any major Melbourne growth corridor. For price sensitive buyers, the gap is meaningful and continued to drive enquiry even as borrowing conditions deteriorated through the quarter.

Price growth is expected to remain moderate through 2026, with upward pressure most likely if titled stock tightens further across Wyndham and Melton’s key precincts.

350

$370,000 340

$360,000 $350,000

330

$340,000 320

$330,000 $320,000

310

$310,000 300

$300,000 $290,000

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Median Lot Price

290

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

Northern Growth Corridor

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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Northern Growth Corridor - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q1 2026

981

-29% vs. Q4 2025

The Northern growth corridor recorded 981 gross lot sales in Q1 2026, down 29% on Q4 2025’s 1,385. Hume continued to anchor performance, supported by consistent absorption across large masterplanned communities. Whittlesea and Mitchell also delivered stable monthly sales, buoyed by continued interest from entry-level purchasers.

Demand remained strongest for well-located stages offering flexible deposits and stronger builder alignment.

Trading days improved as several leading estates progressed through titles, providing clearer construction timelines and strengthening buyer confidence in a time of growing uncertainty.

The corridor’s house and land packages demand profile remained a distinguishing feature, enabling developers to maintain momentum even as other corridors saw a tilt back toward titled lots. This reinforces the North’s strong position among first-home buyers who remain drawn to the region’s attainable price points and the established scale of its masterplanned communities.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales

Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)

Average Trading Days

1,800

200

1,600

180 160

1,400

140

1,200

120

1,000

100 800

80

600

60

400

40

200

20

0

0

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Gross Lot Sales

Ave. Sales (10 Years)

Average Trading Days Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

800 80 600

21

60 400

40

Northern Growth Corridor - Vacant Land Stock 200

0

New Lots Released - Q1 2026

856

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Number ofQtr. Lots Added to Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26

-21% vs. Q4 2025

New supply pulled back through Q1 2026, with 856 lots released across the corridor — a 21% decline on Q4 2025’s 1,089. Releases remained concentrated across Hume and Mitchell, with no significant new estate launches through the quarter, keeping supply broadly aligned with underlying demand. Stock returns declined again, reinforcing continued purchaser commitment.

Active estates declined to 91 over Q1, down 33% from the Q2 2023 peak of 135. With fewer projects competing for the same buyer pool, remaining estates are operating in a less fragmented market — a dynamic that supports pricing discipline and reduces pressure to discount or over incentivise.

Available stock edged lower by quarter end, leaving the North with one of the tighter supply pipelines across Melbourne’s growth corridors. Combined with the consolidation in active estates, this positions the corridor well for more stable release activity through 2026, provided demand conditions hold.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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New Lot Releases

Stock Returned to Market

0

Active Estates

Active Estates

1,400

160 140

1,200

120

1,000

100 800 80 600 60 400

40

200

0

20

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 New Lot Releases

Stock Returned to Market

Active Estates

0

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

$370,000 310 $360,000

300 290

$350,000

Northern Growth Corridor - Lot Price and Size

280

$340,000

$330,000

Lot Price & Size - Q1 2026

$390,000

270

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

+1.6% vs. Q4 2025

Median lot pricing lifted 1.6% in Q1 2026, moving from $384,000 in Q4 2025 to $390,000. The median lot size held steady at 350sqm, consistent with Q4 2025. Per sqm rates improved modestly in step with the price movement.

At $390,000 for 350sqm, the North sits at a slight premium to the Western corridor on a per sqm basis. What justifies that premium is the scale and maturity of its masterplanned communities — established amenity, likely stronger builder networks, and a forward sales pipeline that gives firsthome buyers certainty in an uncertain environment. Buyers aren’t just purchasing land, they’re buying into a functioning community with a clearer path to build.

Price growth should remain moderate through 2026, with more meaningful movements likely to emerge only if supply tightens materially across Hume and Mitchell’s key precincts and the lending environment shows some sign of improvement or at least stabilise.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

22

260

Median Lot Size

Median Lot Price

$400,000

360 350

$390,000

340 $380,000

330 320

$370,000

310 $360,000

300 290

$350,000

280 $340,000

$330,000

270

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

Median Lot Price

260

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

South East Growth Corridor

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

24

South East Growth Corridor - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q1 2026

688

-31% vs. Q4 2025

The South East corridor recorded 688 gross lot sales in Q1 2026, a 31% decline on Q4 2025’s result of 994. Casey again led the region, with Cardinia attracting continued interest across the more affordable eastern estates. While activity softened, the corridor retained broad buyer appeal across both the upgrade and entry-level cohorts.

Trading days improved as titled product was absorbed more readily, with Officer and Cranbourne estates active. Local demand remained the dominant driver, with investors largely absent from the mix.

Despite the quarterly decline, the South East retained a consistent upgrader cohort, with buyers less impacted by the worsening lending environment and taking advantage of clearer construction timeframes. This underpinned a reliable baseline of monthly sales activity through Q1.

Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales

Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)

1,400

200 180

1,200

160 1,000

140 120

800

100 600

80 60

400

40 200

0

20

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Gross Lot Sales

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Average Trading Days

Ave. Sales (10 Years)

Average Trading Days

0

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

500

50

400

40

300

30

South East Growth Corridor - Vacant Land Stock New Lots Released - Q1 2026

827

200

20

100

10

0

0

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Number ofQtr. Lots Added to Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26

+27% vs. Q4 2025

New supply lifted 27% in Q1 2026, with 827 lots released compared to 650 in Q4 2025. Casey drove the bulk of this increase, delivering additional releases across staged communities as developers responded to tightening stock conditions. Stock returns rose to 110 lots, up from a recent low of 72 recorded in Q4 2025, though the movement remains within normal seasonal ranges rather than signalling any deterioration in buyer commitment.

Active estates contracted to 66 in Q1, continuing a gradual consolidation that has kept the South East’s supply environment more structured than in prior years. With fewer projects competing for the same buyer pool, well-located estates are facing less direct competition — a dynamic that continues to support pricing discipline across the corridor.

Available stock remained tight by quarter-end despite the lift in releases, reflecting consistent absorption through the back half of 2025. High-amenity estates continued to outperform, maintaining competitive conditions for well-located land across Casey and Cardinia.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

New Lot Releases

Stock Returned to Market

25

Active Estates

Active Estates

1,000

100

900

90

800

80

700

70

600

60

500

50

400

40

300

30

200

20

100

10

0

0

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 New Lot Releases

Stock Returned to Market

Active Estates

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

$430,000 360 $420,000

26

350 $410,000

340

South East Growth Corridor - Lot Price and Size $400,000

$390,000

Lot Price & Size - Q1 2026

$448,000

330

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

+3% vs. Q4 2025

Median lot pricing rose 3% in Q1 2026, moving from $435,000 in Q4 2025 to $448,000. The median lot size increased to 376sqm, up 26sqm on the prior quarter, with the size shift reflecting a change in the mix of stock transacting rather than a fundamental product pivot. Per sqm rates remained broadly stable as price and size movements largely offset each other.

Premium precincts across Berwick South, Cranbourne East and Officer South continued to command higher values, reinforcing strong spatial segmentation within the corridor.

Buyers showed continued willingness to pay for proximity to established amenity and transport infrastructure.

With stock remaining tight and releases only modestly lifting, upward pricing pressure in select locations is likely to persist through 2026, particularly across high-amenity estates with limited forward supply.

Median Lot Size

Median Lot Price

$460,000

400 390

$450,000

380

$440,000

370 $430,000 360 $420,000 350 $410,000

340

$400,000

$390,000

330

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

320

Median Lot Price

320

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

Greater Geelong Corridor

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

28

Greater Geelong - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q1 2026

471

-10% vs. Q4 2025

Greater Geelong recorded 471 gross lot sales in Q1 2026, a 10% decline on Q4 2025’s result of 526. Armstrong Creek continued to anchor performance, supported by strong builder alignment and sustained demand for titled stock.

Enquiry held up across several high-activity estates through the quarter despite the broader seasonal softening.

Lara and adjacent precincts continued to deliver consistent volumes, benefitting from relative affordability and access to established transport links. Buyers remained sensitive to build timelines but responded positively to clearer delivery pathways.

Market sentiment remained constructive through Q1, despite the higher lending environment, with improving construction lead times offsetting this and leading to support upgrader driven enquiry across the corridor.

Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales

Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)

700

350

600

300

500

250

400

200

300

150

200

100

100

50

0

0

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Gross Lot Sales

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Average Trading Days

Ave. Sales (10 Years)

Average Trading Days

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

300

63 63

200

29

62

Greater Geelong - Vacant Land Stock

62

100

61 0

New Lots Released - Q1 2026

268

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec.Number Qtr. Mar.of Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Lots Added to Qtr. Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26

+20% vs. Q4 2025

New Lot Releases

Stock Returned to Market

61

Active Estates

Active Estates

600

66 65

New supply lifted 20% in Q1 2026, with 268 lots released compared to 224 in Q4 2025. The increase was measured, with fewer new estates coming to market relative to Melbourne’s growth corridors. Stock returns fell to 58 lots — the lowest reading in the series — pointing to strengthening buyer retention and minimal cancellation activity through the quarter.

Active estates held steady at 65, consistent with the corridor’s pattern over the past three years — a more stable supply base than what’s been seen across Melbourne’s growth corridors through the same period.

Supply conditions remained broadly balanced, as developers remained focused on clearing titled and near-titled stock ahead of larger release programs scheduled through 2026, a strategy that continues to preserve pricing stability across Armstrong Creek and Lara’s key precincts.

500

65 64

400

64 63

300

63 200

62 62

100

61 0

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 New Lot Releases

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Stock Returned to Market

Active Estates

61

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

$370,000

370

$360,000

360

$350,000

350

Greater Geelong - Lot Price and Size $340,000

340

$330,000

330

$320,000

320

Lot Price & Size - Q1 2026

$385,000

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

+0.8% vs. Q4 2025

Median lot pricing edged up 0.8% in Q1 2026, rising from $382,000 in Q4 2025 to $385,000. The median lot size increased marginally to 400sqm, up 1sqm on the prior quarter, reflecting continued buyer preference for slightly larger lot formats across key Armstrong Creek stages.

The per sqm values remained broadly stable as a result.

The corridor continued to attract value driven buyers seeking larger lot formats at more accessible prices than Metropolitan Melbourne alternatives. This supported steady absorption and a consistent sales profile through Q1.

Pricing is expected to remain steady throughout the remainder of 2026, with more meaningful upward pressure only likely if supply conditions tighten across Armstrong Creek and Lara’s key release pipelines.

Median Lot Size

Median Lot Price

$410,000

410

$400,000

400

$390,000

390

$380,000

380

$370,000

370

$360,000

360

$350,000

350

$340,000

340

$330,000

330

$320,000

320

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

30

Median Lot Price

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

Ballarat

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

32

Ballarat - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q1 2026

174

-28% vs. Q4 2025

Ballarat recorded 174 gross lot sales in Q1 2026, a 28% decline on Q4 2025’s result of 240. Sales remained concentrated in the western growth precinct, continuing a trend seen throughout 2024–25, with smaller but steady contributions from the southern precinct. The eastern and northern regions continued to operate at low but stable levels.

Buyer enquiry held up through the quarter, supported by a combination of builder incentives and continued clearing of titled stock. While the volume pullback was notable, the underlying demand base remained intact with first-home buyers and upgrader families continuing to drive the majority of activity.

Borrowing stability and improving construction leadtimes continued to support sentiment through Q1, with no material deterioration in buyer confidence despite the softer headline number.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales

Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)

Average Trading Days

300

600

250

500

200

400

150

300

100

200

50

100

0

0

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Gross Lot Sales

Ave. Sales (10 Years)

Average Trading Days

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

200 48 150

47 46

100

Ballarat - Vacant Land Stock

45

50

0

New Lots Released - Q1 2026

52

44

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec.Number Qtr. Mar.of Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Lots Added to Qtr. Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26

+68% vs. Q4 2025

New lot releases lifted sharply in Q1 2026, with 52 lots coming to market compared to just 31 in Q4 2025 — a 68% increase. The lift reflected developers responding to improved absorption conditions and a more balanced stock position entering the year. Stock returns fell to 19 lots, the lowest in recent time, pointing to strong buyer retention and minimal cancellation activity through the quarter.

Active estates eased to 46, continuing a modest drift lower over the past 12 months. The market remains well-structured with no signs of oversupply, and the gradual consolidation in active projects is keeping competitive pressure between developers contained.

Total available stock declined further as absorption continued to outpace new supply on a net basis. Ballarat enters the remainder of 2026 with one of its more balanced supply positions in recent memory, reducing the risk of meaningful price discounting across key precincts.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

33

New Lot Releases

Stock Returned to Market

43

Active Estates

Active Estates

350

53 52

300

51 250

50 49

200

48 150

47 46

100

45 50

0

44

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 New Lot Releases

Stock Returned to Market

Active Estates

43

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

$200,000

440

$150,000

420

$100,000

400

$50,000

380

$0

360

Ballarat - Lot Price and Size Lot Price & Size - Q1 2026

$302,250

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

+23% vs. Q4 2025

Median lot pricing surged 23% in Q1 2026, jumping from $245,000 in Q4 2025 to $302,250. The median lot size also increased materially to 491sqm, up 47sqm on the prior quarter, suggesting the price movement was at least partly driven by a shift in the mix of stock transacting toward larger, higher value lots rather than broad based price inflation across the market.

Despite the headline jump, Ballarat remains one of regional Victoria’s most affordable new-home locations on an absolute basis, continuing to attract first-home buyers and upgrader families priced out of metropolitan corridors.

The durability of this price movement warrants monitoring through Q2 — if the lot size mix normalises, some price moderation is likely. If larger lots continue to dominate transactions, the new pricing level may prove more sustainable.

Median Lot Size

Median Lot Price

$350,000

500

$300,000

480

$250,000

460

$200,000

440

$150,000

420

$100,000

400

$50,000

380

$0

360

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

34

Median Lot Price

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

Bendigo

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

36

Bendigo - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q1 2026

100

-30% vs. Q4 2025

Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales

Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)

Average Trading Days

200

400

180

Bendigo recorded 100 gross lot sales in Q1 2026, a 30% decline on Q4 2025’s result of 143. While the quarterly pullback was meaningful, sales remained 8% higher than Q1 2025’s 92 lots, suggesting the region is holding a healthier baseline than a year prior. Activity was again led by Bendigo’s northern corridor, while the southern and western precincts continued to operate at subdued but stable levels.

Buyer enquiry remained selective through the quarter, with purchasers continuing to favour well-priced titled stock with clear construction pathways. Builder incentives played a supporting role in maintaining engagement through what is typically a softer seasonal period.

Despite the headline decline, Bendigo’s demand fundamentals remain intact. Affordability relative to metropolitan and other regional markets continues to underpin interest from first-home buyers and tree-changers, providing a consistent floor beneath activity levels.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

350

160 300

140

250

120 100

200

80

150

60 100 40 50

20 0

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Gross Lot Sales

Ave. Sales (10 Years)

Average Trading Days

0

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

80 25 60

20 15

40

Bendigo - Vacant Land Stock

10

20

0

New Lots Released - Q1 2026

105

5

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec.Number Qtr. Mar.of Qtr. Jun.Added Qtr. Sep. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Lots to Qtr. Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26

+42% vs. Q4 2025

New lot releases lifted 42% in Q1 2026, with 105 lots coming to market compared to 74 in Q4 2025. The increase reflects developers responding to tighter stock conditions, with total available inventory having compressed through the back half of 2025. Stock returns fell to just 3 lots — the lowest through this cycle — pointing to exceptionally strong buyer retention.

Active estates held steady at 46, consistent with Q4 2025 and part of a gradual expansion over the past three years.

While Melbourne’s growth corridors have seen meaningful consolidation in active projects — the Northern corridor alone has contracted from 135 to 91 estates over the same period — Bendigo has been moving in the opposite direction, quietly growing its active project base as developer confidence in the region’s long-term demand profile builds.

The combination of rising releases, record-low stock returns and an expanding estate base kept supply conditions manageable through the quarter, with no meaningful overhang emerging despite the softer sales environment.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

37

New Lot Releases

Stock Returned to Market

0

Active Estates

Active Estates

140

50 45

120

40 100

35 30

80

25 60

20 15

40

10 20

0

5

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 New Lot Releases

Stock Returned to Market

Active Estates

0

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

400 $270,000 300 $260,000

200

Bendigo - Lot Price and Size $250,000

$240,000

Lot Price & Size - Q1 2026

$265,000

100

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

-1.9% vs. Q4 2025

Median lot pricing eased 1.9% in Q1 2026, slipping from $270,000 in Q4 2025 to $265,000. The median lot size also contracted slightly to 534sqm, down 4sqm on the prior quarter. The per sqm rates held broadly steady as the price and size movements were modest and largely offsetting.

The Q4 2025 price spike — driven by a compositional shift toward larger northern lots — has partially unwound, with Q1 transactions reflecting a more normalised product mix.

This brings pricing back in line with Bendigo’s longer-run trend rather than signalling any fundamental deterioration in values.

Bendigo remains one of regional Victoria’s most competitively priced growth markets, continuing to attract buyers seeking larger lots at price points well below metropolitan alternatives. Stability rather than growth is the more likely near-term pricing outlook.

0

Median Lot Size

Median Lot Price

$300,000

700

600

$290,000

500

$280,000

400 $270,000 300 $260,000

200

$250,000

$240,000

100

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

38

Median Lot Price

0

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

Macedon & Mitchell

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

40

Macedon & Mitchell - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q1 2026

78

-5% vs. Q4 2025

Macedon & Mitchell recorded 78 gross lot sales in Q1 2026, a 5% decline on Q4 2025’s result of 82. While the quarterly dip was modest, the corridor maintained solid footing relative to earlier 2025 levels, with continued engagement across both Kilmore and Wallan precincts supporting a consistent baseline of activity.

Sales held up reasonably well given the broader market softening seen across most corridors in Q1. Buyer interest remained anchored by the region’s lifestyle appeal and relative affordability compared to Melbourne’s outer metropolitan growth areas.

Several established masterplan stages continued to deliver steady absorption through the quarter, with enquiry holding up in precincts offering clearer build timelines and stronger builder alignment.

Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales

Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)

90

400

80

350

70

300

60

250

50 200 40 150

30

100

20 10

50

0

0

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Gross Lot Sales

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Average Trading Days

Ave. Sales (10 Years)

Average Trading Days

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

80 35 60

35 34

40

Macedon & Mitchell - Vacant Land Stock

34

20

0

New Lots Released - Q1 2026

72

33

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec.Number Qtr. Mar.of Qtr. Jun.Added Qtr. Sep. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Lots to Qtr. Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26

+24% vs. Q4 2025

New lot releases lifted 24% in Q1 2026, with 72 lots coming to market compared to 58 in Q4 2025. The increase reflected developer confidence in the region’s improving demand profile, with both shires contributing to the uplift.

Nevertheless, stock returns spiked with 48 lots — a sharp jump from just 13 in Q4 2025. The cause of that movement warrants monitoring; at this scale it is difficult to attribute purely to seasonal factors and may reflect some softening in buyer commitment or settlement delays across select contracts.

Active estates held steady at 36, consistent with where the corridor has operated throughout the past three years.

The stability in project numbers reflects the corridor’s more contained development footprint relative to Melbourne’s growth areas.

Total available stock rose modestly as a result of the returns but remained manageable overall. The lift did not materially disrupt pricing through the quarter.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

41

New Lot Releases

Stock Returned to Market

33

Active Estates

Active Estates

140

38 37

120

37 100

36 36

80

35 60

35 34

40

34 20

0

33

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 New Lot Releases

Stock Returned to Market

Active Estates

33

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

$380,000

640

$370,000

620

$360,000

42

600

Macedon & Mitchell - Lot Price and Size $350,000

580

$340,000 $330,000

Lot Price & Size - Q1 2026

$372,000

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

+3% vs. Q4 2025

560

Median Lot Size

Median Lot Price

$420,000

700

$410,000

Median lot pricing lifted 3% in Q1 2026, rising from $361,200 in Q4 2025 to $372,000. The median lot size held broadly steady at 611sqm, down just 1sqm on the prior quarter, keeping per-sqm rates stable through the period.

Price levels remain broadly aligned with the corridor’s longterm average, with the Q1 movement reflecting genuine demand support rather than compositional distortion.

Macedon & Mitchell continues to offer one of the more distinctive value propositions in Victoria’s growth markets — larger lots at prices that remain accessible relative to the lifestyle premium the region commands.

Near-term pricing is expected to remain stable, with upside more likely to emerge through improved sales velocity than any supply-side squeeze, given the corridor’s comparatively modest release volumes.

680

$400,000 660

$390,000 $380,000

640

$370,000

620

$360,000

600

$350,000 580

$340,000 $330,000

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Median Lot Price

560

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

Drouin & Warragul

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

44

Drouin & Warragul - Buyer Activity Gross Sales - Q1 2026

86

-21% vs. Q4 2025

Drouin & Warragul recorded 86 gross lot sales in Q1 2026, a 21% decline on Q4 2025’s result of 109. Despite the quarterly softening, activity remains significantly above early-2024 levels, supported by the corridor’s affordability advantage relative to Melbourne’s fringe growth areas.

Warragul continued to dominate activity, with Drouin contributing steady but comparatively lower volumes through the quarter. Builder incentives helped sustain enquiry through what is typically a softer seasonal period, with momentum holding reasonably well into the new year.

The corridor continues to benefit from relocation trends, with buyers drawn by lifestyle appeal and access to Gippsland transport connections providing a consistent floor beneath demand.

Gross Lot Sales Gross Lot Sales

Average Trading Days Average Sales (10 Years)

140

400 350

120

300

100

250 80 200 60 150 40

100

20

0

50

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Gross Lot Sales

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Average Trading Days

Ave. Sales (10 Years)

Average Trading Days

0

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

80 10

60

45

40

Drouin & Warragul - Vacant Land Stock

5

20 0

New Lots Released - Q1 2026

80

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec.Number Qtr. Mar.of Qtr. Jun.Added Qtr. Sep. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Lots to Qtr. Market '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26

+11% vs. Q4 2025

New lot releases lifted 11% in Q1 2026, with 80 lots coming to market compared to 72 in Q4 2025. Developers maintained a measured approach to release timing, keeping supply broadly aligned with underlying demand. Stock returns held low at 10 lots, consistent with the improved buyer retention seen through the back half of 2025 and pointing to minimal cancellation activity through the quarter.

Active estates recovered to 20 through the quarter, returning to 2023 levels after bottoming out at 16 through late 2024 and early 2025. The rebound in active projects reflects growing developer confidence in the corridor’s demand outlook, with the re-entry of projects that had previously paused release activity now adding depth to the supply pipeline without creating meaningful oversupply pressure.

Supply conditions remained stable and well structured through Q1, with the combination of low stock returns and a recovering estate base providing a sound platform for consistent release activity through the remainder of 2026.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

New Lot Releases

Stock Returned to Market

0

Active Estates

Active Estates

160

25

140 20 120 100

15

80 10

60 40

5 20 0

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 New Lot Releases

Stock Returned to Market

Active Estates

0

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

$320,000

400

$310,000

300

$300,000

46

200

Drouin & Warragul - Lot Price and Size $290,000

100

$280,000 $270,000

Lot Price & Size - Q1 2026

$315,000

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Median LotSep. Price '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

-1.1% vs. Q4 2025

Median lot pricing eased 1.1% in Q1 2026, slipping from $318,500 in Q4 2025 to $315,000. The median lot size contracted to 497sqm, down 13sqm on the prior quarter, with Warragul’s smaller lot formats continuing to influence the corridor’s overall size and pricing profile. The per sqm rates held broadly steady as the modest price and size movements largely offset each other.

Pricing movements remain modest and continue to reflect variations in the mix of lots transacting rather than any fundamental shift in underlying values. The corridor’s affordability relative to Melbourne’s growth areas remains its primary demand driver and continues to attract pricesensitive buyers seeking larger format land.

Near-term pricing is expected to remain stable, with the corridor unlikely to see meaningful upward pressure until sales velocity improves more consistently across both Warragul and Drouin precincts.

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

0

Median Lot Size

Median Lot Price

$360,000

700

$350,000

600

$340,000 500

$330,000 $320,000

400

$310,000

300

$300,000

200

$290,000 100

$280,000 $270,000

Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. Jun. Qtr. Sep. Qtr. Dec. Qtr. Mar. Qtr. '23 '23 '23 '24 '24 '24 '24 '25 '25 '25 '25 '26 Median Lot Size

Median Lot Price

0

Source: RPM Market Intelligence and Terralytics

47

Victorian Greenfield Market Outlook Michael Staedler General Manager Market Intelligence m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au

Rate rises, cost pressures and cautious buyers — the greenfield market’s path through 2026 narrows.

Three consecutive RBA rate increases in February, March, and May moved the cash rate from 3.60% to 4.35%, reversing all of the monetary easing that had supported buyer activity through 2025. The impact was immediate and broad-based, with sales volumes contracting across every Victorian growth corridor in Q1.

pressures across mortgage servicing, utilities and essential spending. Spending intentions have shifted from selective restraint to broad-based caution — a pattern that historically precedes more sustained demand weakness. First-home buyers, who represent the dominant demand cohort across the greenfield corridors, are disproportionately exposed to rate movements and the associated compression in borrowing capacity.

Borrowing capacity has been materially reduced, and the prospect of further tightening in coming months is sustaining uncertainty at a point in the cycle where confidence is already fragile.

Supply-side cost pressures continue to constrain lot delivery economics. According to the Colliers Engineering & Design 2026 Cost Per Lot Report, Victoria’s average civil development cost per lot eased 4.3% to approximately $127,000 in 2025, but statutory charges now represent approximately 40% of total per-lot costs and continue to rise. That relief is also under threat, with the same report noting that geopolitical instability is reintroducing materials cost volatility across fuel and petroleum-dependent inputs.

According to the latest NAB Consumer Sentiment Survey, consumer conditions deteriorated sharply through the quarter. Household stress reached its highest level since 2014, driven by compounding cost

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Nevertheless, Melbourne’s greenfield market retains a meaningful affordability advantage over established housing and other eastern seaboard markets, and government incentives and low deposit schemes continue to underpin entry-level demand.

The trajectory of inflation and the RBA’s response to it will be the dominant variable shaping market outcomes through the second half of 2026.

F or more information, please visit: www.rpmgrp.com.au O ur Market Intelligence Services create bespoke reports crafted to your specifications, translating rich data into in-depth analysis. For a bespoke report, email the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au

48

Our Team Market Intelligence Michael Staedler

General Manager Market Intelligence m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au

Andrew Raponi

Senior Research Manager a.raponi@rpmgrp.com.au

Laurence Rao

Simon Brinkman

Rod Anderson

Peter Grant

Research Manager - VIC laurence@rpmgrp.com.au

Research Manager - QLD simon@rpmgrp.com.au

Executive, Sales and Marketing Leadership Paul McMahon

Luke Kelly

Chief Operating Officer paul@rpmgrp.com.au

National Managing Director Built Form luke@rpmgrp.com.au

National Managing Director Communities rod@rpmgrp.com.au

Imogene Schaefer

Michael Vilar

Greg Rankin

General Manager Marketing imogene@rpmgrp.com.au

Tim Hyland

National Strategy Manager Transactions & Advisory tim@rpmgrp.com.au

VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP

General Manager Medium Density - VIC michaelv@rpmgrp.com.au

General Manager Communities - VIC gregr@rpmgrp.com.au

National Managing Director Business Development peter@rpmgrp.com.au

Johnathon Driessen

General Manager Communities - VIC johnathon@rpmgrp.com.au

49

Unlocking Australia’s Property Landscape For detailed insights or custom reporting, contact the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au

rpmgrp.com.au VIC GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT Q1 2026 | © RPM GROUP