RPM SEQ Greenfield Market Report_April 2026

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SEQ Greenfield Market Report April 2026

MARKET INTELLIGENCE SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

What’s Inside This report presents and analyses the most recent economic and building datasets available as of April 2026.

Q&A with Daniel Gradwell

07

Vacant Land Market Snapshot

19

What Does a 375sqm Lot Cost?

20

Comparison of a 375sqm Lot

21

Population & Housing Demand

09

QLD Population Growth

10

SEQ Lot Sales by Region

22

QLD Population Growth by Region

11

Median Lot Size by Region

23

Median Land Price by Region

24

Rate per SQM by Region

25

Development Sites

26

Outlook

28

Property Market Trends & Prices

13

Borrowing Power

14

Greater Brisbane Property Prices

15

Attractiveness of the Land Market

16

Greater Brisbane Established Market

17

Share of Sales by Region

18

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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About RPM RPM is at the forefront of the property industry, setting new standards in market intelligence, expertise, and creativity. With a proven track record spanning three decades, our unsurpassed market knowledge and data-driven insights have ensured our partners achieve excellent outcomes, and our clients, exceptional returns.​ Our services include: Project Sales & Marketing Research Data & Insights Land Transactions & Advisory

Respected development partner Research partner of the UDIA 40,000+ lot yield on current projects $10B+ land transactions 100+ team of property experts 55+ active projects across Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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A Data Driven, Holistic Approach to Property RPM’s Research, Data & Insights division provides in-depth analysis on current local and overseas economic and property market conditions. The team consists of economists, property experts, and GIS analysts that provide real-time market intelligence, and analytical and strategic advice.

Our knowledge and expertise are an invaluable resource for RPM’s developer clients, empowering them to make intelligent, informed, and strategic decisions when evaluating residential developments and investment opportunities.

Our data and analysis help clients maximise their marketing efforts and achieve sales targets on their estates. Each month we collect extensive data on approximately 350 estates in Victoria, 180 estates in Queensland and 180 in New South Wales, providing our clients with a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics. This also underpins the core strategic decision-making of our own business.

This rich data helps our team and clients to better understand:

Volume of lots sold

Distribution of lots of a particular size

Dollar per sqm rates

Distribution of price points

Stock release levels

Activity levels by market, product & developer

Volume of stock returned to market

Stock level fluctuations

We profile every lot including lot size, price, orientation, sqm rate and title status, monitoring through to final sale.

Your dedicated research team: Michael Staedler

General Manager Research, Data & Insights

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Simon Brinkman

Research Manager - QLD Research, Data & Insights

Megha Saha

Research Analyst Research, Data & Insights

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Executive Summary Australia’s appetite for homeownership has not softened. The current environment has shifted where and how people buy, not whether they intend to.

Population growth continues to outpace housing delivery across Queensland. In the capital, established property listings are at some of the lowest levels on record, which is continuing to drive pricing pressure and demand for new housing.

The state added 97,347 new residents in the year to September 2025, growing at 1.8% against a national average of 1.6% and taking Queensland’s population to 5.69 million. Overseas migration contributed 57,068 of those arrivals, interstate migration 19,092, and natural increase 21,187. Migration-led households are more likely to be entering the market for the first time. That cohort aligns with the house and land product that defines the greenfield sector.

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Growth is concentrating in the outer corridors.

Ripley added 3,131 residents (up 15%), Chambers Flat Logan Reserve 1,812 (up 12%), Greenbank North Maclean 1,576 (up 14%), Boronia Heights Park Ridge 1,430 (up 6%). These are among the fastest growing communities in the state, absorbing a disproportionate share of new household formations each year. The strong growth in these corridors also highlights the importance of prioritising infrastructure delivery in the greenfields.

The established market continues to tighten. In March 2026, supply tightened further to just 2,662 rental vacancies and 13,832 listings for sale against prior averages of 9,371 and 30,237 respectively. Both are near record lows. This shortfall is redirecting demand into the greenfield sector at a level above what population growth alone would generate.

Australia’s appetite for homeownership has not softened. Interest rates and affordability challenges have shifted where and how people buy, not whether they intend to.

The greenfield sector still offers a relative price advantage. A typical house and land package (based on the median land price and average build price) sits at around $1.01 million against an established median of $1.16 million, despite land values rising 26% annually to $503,200 and the average build price now also over half a million dollars. The margin is narrowing and will keep doing so but it continues to drive purchasing decisions.

Moreton Bay, Logan, and Ipswich now account for 71% of SEQ land sales. Ripley Valley, Waraba, Flagstone, and Yarrabilba PDAs are carrying the weight of demand and will remain central to how the region accommodates its next phase of growth.

Clinton Trezise Managing Director Queensland & New South Wales clinton@rpmgrp.com.au

Peter Neale Managing Director Queensland & New South Wales petern@rpmgrp.com.au

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Lead Indicators AUS Unemployment

Cash Rate

4.10%

Mar 2026

4.30%

Brisbane Median House Price

QLD Annual Wage Growth

Mar 2026

3.3%

Dec 2025

$1.16M

Second rate rise of 2026, driven by renewed inflationary pressures.

Flat over the year, with employed persons +18,000 and unemployed -4,000.

Trailing slightly behind the national average of 3.4%.

Up 16.2% for the year.

Gross Domestic Product

AUS Av. Weekly Earnings

QLD Av. Weekly Earnings

QLD State Final Demand

0.80%

Dec 2025

$2,126

Nov 2025

$2,092

Nov 2025

0.1%

Mar 2026

Dec 2025

GDP per capita increased for four consecutive quarters (+0.9% y/y).

Up 4% for the year.

Up 2.9% for the year.

With household consumption up 0.5% for the quarter.

Annual Inflation

AUD/USD Exchange Rate

QLD Unemployment

QLD Participation Rate

3.70%

Feb 2026

The largest contributor to annual inflation was housing, which rose by 7.2%.

$0.71

Apr 2026

Up from $0.64 since the beginning of the year.

3.7%

The lowest level since May 2025.

Mar 2026

66.8%

Mar 2026

In line with the national rate.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Pricefinder and Reserve Bank of Australia SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Q&A WITH DANIEL GRADWELL

Greenfield Market Financing Outlook Daniel Gradwell Associate Director of Property ANZ

How do you see the current geopolitical uncertainty impacting the property market?

There are probably three ways it has an impact; some direct, some longer term. The first is upward pressure on inflation through rising petrol prices, which puts the RBA in a challenging position on monetary policy.

Australia already had elevated inflation before recent global events, and this doesn’t help. It makes further rate hikes increasingly likely, and we’ve already seen that even the expectation of higher rates is enough to see markets like Sydney and Melbourne roll over a bit.

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

First home buyers are more active than they have been. The 5% deposit scheme is supporting that pretty directly, and the numbers are striking.

The second is the hit to general confidence.

The ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is bouncing around the lowest levels in roughly 50 years. People are clearly sensitive to petrol prices, and when you couple that with higher interest rates, it gives people reason to pause, whether that’s delaying a renovation, a purchase, or a move.

That’s not good news for property at the margin.

The third is what it means for construction costs.

It’s essentially impossible to put specific numbers around it, but it’s clearly not good news. Construction costs have been a real challenge for years already, and this only makes that story more challenging, particularly for SEQ, where costs were already running higher than most of the rest of the country.

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Q&A WITH DANIEL GRADWELL

Greenfield Market Financing Outlook What are ANZ’s current house price forecasts across the capital cities?

Brisbane and Gold Coast combined have seen double-digit growth for three consecutive years.

The headline for this year is that we expect that to slow, but slowing still means around 9% for 2026.

That’s still massive out performance against the rest of the country. It reflects that the fundamentals remain strong, but prices simply can’t keep growing exponentially.

Brisbane, Gold Coast and Perth will continue to see the strongest growth nationally. The contrast is Sydney and Melbourne, where we expect prices to drop around 2 or 3%. Not a significant drop, but some downward pressure. Melbourne prices actually started softening before interest rates rose, when commentary shifted away from rate cuts toward hikes.

They’ve essentially gone back to around September 2025 levels. Not dramatic, but a clear contrast to what’s still happening in SEQ and Perth.

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

With SEQ median land prices now exceeding $500,000, how are lenders assessing risk in Greenfield projects where price points are pushing affordability limits?

The key metric we look at is the share of income needed to service the average mortgage, and across SEQ that still looks okay; which reflects that even with extraordinary price growth, the starting point was very affordable. That’s a meaningful distinction from somewhere like Adelaide, where affordability (in terms of share of income needed to service a loan) has deteriorated sharply, and we have a lot more concern.

For individual projects, we look at who the end purchasers are and whether affordability constraints will create headwinds at settlement.

We also look at the track record of the developer and builder. Have they delivered this type of product before? Do they have access to the trades they need? We lean heavily into those non-financial factors in this environment.

Are you seeing increased participation from first home buyers in the Greenfield market, given current incentives?

Yes, first home buyers are more active than they’ve been. The 5% deposit scheme is supporting that pretty directly, and the numbers are striking. Over the six months the scheme has been operating, the lower quartile of the Brisbane and Gold Coast housing market is up around 14%, compared to roughly 8% for the top quartile. That gap speaks directly to where first home buyers are operating, making sure they stay under the price cap.

The pattern keeps repeating though. It’s great for first home buyers who take advantage of it at that point in time, but it adds more fuel to the fire and makes it harder for the next wave coming through in three to five years. It’s a demand-side policy without a supply-side solution attached to it.

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Population & Housing Demand

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM Group

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QLD Population Growth QLD Components of Population Change - 12 Month Rolling QLD Population Change - Year to Sep 2025

+97,347 (+1.8%)

Queensland’s population continues to grow well above the national average, driven primarily by overseas migration.

In the year to September 2025, the state added 97,347 new residents, an annual increase of 1.8%, compared to the national average of 1.6%. bringing the total population to 5.69 million.

Net overseas migration was the key driver, contributing 57,068 new residents, while net interstate migration contributed a further 19,092 people. Natural increase accounted for the remaining 21,187 people.

■ National Increase

■ Net Overseas Migration

■ Net Interstate Migration

160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25

-20,000

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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QLD Population Growth by Region Population Growth Change from 2024 to 2025 by Region The majority of Greater Brisbane’s population growth is occurring in greenfield corridors, reinforcing its importance as the primary housing solution for the region’s expanding population.

The fastest growing areas over the past year are almost exclusively located in outer growth corridors.

Ripley led with 3,131 new residents (up 15%), followed by Chambers Flat–Logan Reserve (+1,812, up 12%), Greenbank–North Maclean (+1,576, up 14%), and Boronia Heights–Park Ridge (+1,430, up 6%).

These areas are absorbing the bulk of Queensland’s new household formation, driven by a higher rate of delivery and typically larger household sizes. The strong growth in these corridors highlights the importance of prioritising infrastructure delivery in the greenfields.

Region

2024

2025

Change

Change %

Ripley

20,328

23,459

3,131

15%

Chambers Flat - Logan Reserve

15,063

16,875

1,812

12%

Greenbank - North Maclean

11,115

12,691

1,576

14%

Boronia Heights - Park Ridge

25,643

27,073

1,430

6%

Springfield Lakes

28,200

29,522

1,322

5%

Yarrabilba

14,575

15,803

1,228

8%

Pallara - Willawong

15,439

16,586

1,147

7%

Deception Bay

24,173

25,304

1,131

5%

Morayfield

6,812

7,826

1,014

15%

Flagstone (West) - New Beith

12,357

13,360

1,003

8%

Redbank Plains

28,131

29,057

926

3%

Jimboomba - Glenlogan

20,673

21,545

872

4%

Rosewood

15,959

16,825

866

5%

Collingwood Park - Redbank

14,098

14,921

823

6%

Caboolture - South

26,986

27,798

812

3%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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QLD Population Growth by Region Annual population growth was significantly higher in greenfield outer suburbs in FY25, compared to FY17 when growth was concentrated in inner-city regions.

Population Growth 2016-2017

Population Growth 2024-2025 Low Growth

High Growth

Low Growth

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

High Growth

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Population Change 16-17 -108-85 95-264 264-976

Property Market Trends & Prices

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM Group

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Borrowing Power Purchase Price Capacity - $120,000 Household income Purchase Price Capacity - $120,000 Household income Aug 2025 to Mar 2026

-$37,000 (-5%)

March brought the second interest rate rise this year, lifting the cash rate to 4.1% and the Standard Variable Rate (SVR) up to 6%, matching levels last seen in February 2025.

Buyers enjoyed some reprieve through 2025 as multiple cuts took effect, but elevated inflation exacerbated by the Middle East conflict point to further rises through 2026.

The two increases this year have cut borrowing capacity by around -$37,000 (-5%), for the average household earning $120,000.

Standard Variable Rate (LHS)

■ Purchase Price Capacity (RHS)

7.00%

6.00%

$1,000,000 $936,444

6.28%

6.28%

6.00%

5.75%

5.50%

5.75%

6.00%

$950,000 $900,000

5.00%

$850,000 $800,000

4.00%

$750,000 3.00% 2.41% 2.00%

$646,889

$663,222

$678,333

$694,000

$676,556

$700,000 $657,444

$621,444

$650,000 $600,000

1.00%

0.00%

$550,000

Apr-22: Lowest SVR

Jun-24: Peak Cash Rate

Jul-24: Income Tax Cuts

Feb-25: Cash Rate Cut

May-25: Cash Rate Cut

Aug-25: Cash Rate Cut

Feb-26: Cash Rate Increase

Mar-26: Cash Rate Increase

$500,000

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, CBA Borrowing Power Calculator

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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Greater Brisbane Property Prices Median Property Prices - Greater Brisbane Greater Brisbane’s housing market continues to show strong growth. Median house prices reached $1.16 million in Q1 2026, up 16.2% annually, though prices eased 1.6% over the quarter.

Demand for detached houses remain strong, supported by limited established stock on market and strong population growth.

House

Unit

Land

$1,400,000

$1,200,000

Units also saw significant price growth over the year with median prices reaching $840,500; an annual gain of 20.1%.

This reflects a shift among both buyers and investors toward medium density products as affordability becomes more stretched.

$1,000,000

Land values recorded the fastest growth of the three segments, reaching $503,200 in Q1 2026, up 26% over the year. Sustained undersupply across the region continues to drive land price growth, reinforced by the strength of the established market.

$600,000

$800,000

$400,000

$200,000

Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26

$0

Source: Pricefinder, RPM Research, Data & Insights and Terralytics

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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Attractiveness of the Land Market Greater Brisbane House and Land Pricing SEQ’s greenfield market continues to offer strong relative value against established housing, despite rising land and construction costs.

Since March 2022, Greater Brisbane’s median land price has increased 86% to $503,200, and build costs have risen 37% to $507,374, This takes a typical house and land package to around $1.01 million. Despite the rapid growth, this package price is still below the established median house price of $1.16 million.

This pricing gap remains a key demand driver for the land market. Buyers still see greenfield housing as a more affordable pathway to homeownership and for a newer home.

■ Median Land Price

■ Average Build Price

Median House Price

$1,400,000

$1,200,000

$1,000,000

$800,000

$600,000

$400,000

$200,000

$-

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Mar-25

Mar-26

Source: ABS, Pricefinder, RPM Research, Data & Insights and Terralytics

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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Greater Brisbane Established Market Greater Brisbane Rental Vacancies and Sale Listings Tight conditions in the established market continue to drive demand for the greenfield sector. Rental vacancies and sale listings continue to hover around their lowest levels on record, increasing competition for buyers and driving price growth.

In the rental market, vacancies have fallen from an average of 9,371 between 2016-2020 to 3,575 in 2021-2026, while average sale listings have declined from 30,237 to 18,232.

In March 2026, supply tightened further to just 2,662 rental vacancies and 13,832 listings for sale.

Rental Vacancies

Properties For Sale

50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000

Mar-26

Dec-25

Sep-25

Jun-25

Mar-25

Dec-24

Sep-24

Jun-24

Mar-24

Dec-23

Sep-23

Jun-23

Mar-23

Dec-22

Sep-22

Jun-22

Mar-22

Dec-21

Sep-21

Jun-21

Mar-21

Dec-20

Sep-20

Jun-20

Mar-20

Dec-19

Sep-19

0 Jun-19

13,832

Mar-19

2,662

Dec-18

Current (Mar 2026)

5,000

Sep-18

18,232

Jun-18

3,575

Mar-18

2021-2026

10,000

Dec-17

30,237

Sep-17

9,371

Jun-17

2016-2020

15,000

Mar-17

Sale Listings

Dec-16

Rental Vacancies

Sep-16

Period

Source: SQM Research

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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Share of Sales by Region Share of Sales by Region Buyer activity across SEQ has shifted significantly over the past decade, as affordability constraints and land supply have reshaped the market.

30%

Moreton Bay, Logan, and Ipswich accounted for 71% of all SEQ land sales, driven by the relative affordability and stronger supply across PDAs including Waraba, Ripley Valley, Flagstone and Yarrabilba.

25%

20%

At the other end, Gold Coast, Brisbane Council, and Sunshine Coast are losing share as land availability tightens and prices move beyond reach for many buyers. The Gold Coast accounted for 20% of sales in 2016 and just 4% in the past year.

15%

10%

5%

0% Moreton Bay Redland City

Scenic Rim

Sunshine Coast

Toowoomba and Lockyer Valley

Brisbane

Gold Coast

Ipswich

Logan

2016

10%

20%

16%

14%

16%

4%

1%

15%

3%

2021

10%

7%

19%

26%

17%

2%

1%

13%

5%

Year to Mar 2026

3%

4%

18%

26%

27%

5%

3%

8%

7%

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights and Terralytics

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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Vacant Land Market Snapshot SEQ’s median land price passed $500K in Q1 2026.

South East Queensland

Sunshine Coast

Brisbane

Median Size

Median Price

Rate/sqm

Median Size

Median Price

Rate/sqm

Median Size

407sqm

$516.9k

$1,270

412sqm

$607.5k

$1,475

450sqm $1.15M

-2%

+28%

+30%

Toowoomba

+10%

+29%

+18%

Moreton Bay

+6%

Median Price

+64%

Median Price

Rate/sqm

Median Size

Median Price

Rate/sqm

Median Size

750sqm

$425k

$567

378sqm

$516.9k

$1,367

400sqm $470.5k

+27%

+1%

Ipswich

+20%

+25%

Redland

Median Size

Median Price

375sqm

$479.9k $1,280

-

-4%

+24%

Percentages expressed as change from March 2025 to March 2026

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Rate/sqm

+24%

-2%

Median Price

+25%

+54%

Rate/sqm

$1,176 +27%

Gold Coast

Median Size

Median Price

Rate/sqm

Median Size

477sqm

$685k

$1,475

545.5sqm $870k

+14%

$2,556

Logan

Median Size

+25%

Rate/sqm

+27%

+18%

+19%

Median Price

+23%

Rate/sqm

$1,595 +3%

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights and Terralytics

Banya $575,000 Lilywood $480,000

What Does a 375sqm Lot Cost?

Median Sale Price Q1 2026

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Caboolture South $491,900 Morayfield $500,000

Brisbane

Walloon $453,000

Ripley $477,500

Bundamba $395,000 Greenbank $465,000

Deebing Heights $484,900

Park Ridge $602,000

South Ripley $498,650

South Maclean $540,700

Spring Mountain $701,900 Flagstone $420,000 SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Redland Bay $599,500

Riverbend $423,000

Coomera $755,000

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights and Terralytics

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Comparison of a 375sqm Lot Median Lot Price SEQ’s rapid land price growth has shifted its relative value compared to Melbourne and Sydney.

Taking a 375sqm as a benchmark, SEQ’s median price now sits at $492K, the same price Sydney commanded in March 2021. This shows that despite the rapid growth, there is still relative value compared to Sydney’s current median of $757K. Melbourne’s median price, of $393K, now sits where SEQ was in June 2025, making it the most affordable capital city land market on the east coast.

■$800,000 Melbourne

■ South East Queensland

■ Sydney $757,400

$700,000

$600,000

$491,900 $492,000

$500,000

$400,000

$393,000

SEQ $393k in June 2025

SYD $492k in March 2021 SYD $393k in March 2016

$300,000

$200,000

Melbourne

South East Queensland

Sydney Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights and Terralytics

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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SEQ Lot Sales by Region SEQ land sales recovered more quickly than other states post-pandemic, but have been recently been restricted by a lack of land supply rather than demand.

Toowoomba

7,000

Sunshine Coast

Somerset

Scenic Rim

Redland City

Moreton Bay

Logan

Lockyer Valley

Ipswich

Gold Coast

Brisbane

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

-

Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights and Terralytics

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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Median Lot Size by Region Key greenfield regions are now breaking below the 400sqm mark in light of recent price increases.

800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 Brisbane Gold Coast Ipswich Logan Moreton Bay Redland City Sunshine Coast Toowoomba

Qtr1 Mar

Qtr1 Mar

Qtr1 Mar

Qtr1 Mar

Qtr1 Mar

Qtr1 Mar

Qtr1 Mar

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

404 401 427 423 405 431 375 610

402 400 400 419 403 423 375 666

437 420 403 405 400 452 350 698

412 420 420 400 388 449 350 614

404 428 405 420 392 432 367 701

431 471 375 410 394 420 399 600

450 546 375 400 378 477 412 750 Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights and Terralytics

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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Median Land Price by Region Significant growth has been seen across all major SEQ greenfield markets in the last year, with all medians now surpassing $400,000.

$1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $Brisbane Gold Coast Ipswich Logan Moreton Bay Redland City Sunshine Coast Toowoomba

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

$370,000 $240,000 $193,000 $208,150 $249,000 $320,250 $245,000 $174,750

$386,000 $259,000 $193,000 $214,000 $252,950 $312,000 $250,350 $182,250

$400,500 $287,000 $197,000 $219,900 $257,000 $296,000 $260,300 $190,000

$378,500 $295,000 $215,650 $227,000 $255,750 $307,000 $254,000 $190,000

$376,950 $278,000 $217,650 $222,000 $268,000 $310,000 $260,000 $207,000

$360,900 $305,000 $215,000 $229,500 $286,550 $360,000 $285,000 $193,750

$452,000 $470,000 $270,600 $252,000 $297,350 $540,000 $344,550 $219,250

$505,000 $467,900 $296,950 $290,975 $360,000 $610,000 $360,000 $240,000

$585,000 $569,900 $331,900 $325,000 $375,000 $453,500 $387,250 $299,000

$700,000 $709,000 $388,500 $377,500 $430,000 $538,000 $469,250 $335,250

$1,150,000 $870,000 $479,900 $470,450 $516,900 $685,000 $607,500 $425,000

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights and Terralytics SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

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Rate per SQM by Region SEQ’s median square metre rate grew 30% over the last 12 months.

$3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $Brisbane Gold Coast Ipswich Logan Moreton Bay Redland City Sunshine Coast Toowoomba

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

$834 $563 $463 $455 $554 $712 $544 $295

$828 $617 $431 $489 $574 $693 $626 $275

$951 $634 $439 $524 $626 $740 $694 $306

$938 $656 $479 $540 $639 $738 $685 $329

$936 $693 $504 $525 $662 $720 $693 $339

$908 $763 $538 $548 $712 $851 $760 $291

$1,042 $1,119 $671 $622 $746 $1,195 $984 $314

$1,302 $1,114 $707 $727 $928 $1,359 $1,029 $391

$1,448 $1,332 $820 $774 $957 $1,050 $1,078 $427

$1,624 $1,507 $1,039 $921 $1,091 $1,281 $1,207 $559

$2,556 $1,595 $1,280 $1,176 $1,367 $1,436 $1,475 $567

Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights and Terralytics SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Development Sites

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Development Sites James Matley Sales Director Transactions & Advisory james@rpmgrp.com.au

The capital pool transacting on SEQ greenfield sites today is materially different to what it was 18 months ago.

Understanding who is bidding has become as important as understanding what a site is worth.

Across RPM’s on and off market campaigns over the past 12 months, five distinct buyer cohorts are appearing at the table, each with different underwriting logic, capital horizons, and preferred deal structures.

Private capital syndicates have been the standout cohort. Typically, experienced operators backed by high net worth, family office, or private equity capital, they have been responsible for a disproportionate share of sites transacted over the past 12-18 months. Their edge is threefold:

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Different sites require different processes, different timelines, and different conditions of sale.

they move faster than institutions through diligence, they accept complexity that larger groups will not underwrite, and their revenue assumptions reflect genuine conviction in the SEQ supply demand thesis.

On several recent RPM campaigns they have outbid larger, better resourced groups on sites in the 200 to 500+ lot bracket through cleaner terms, shorter conditions, and surety of execution. Campaigns that fail to engage this cohort directly are leaving value on the table.

Listed and institutional developers remain the most disciplined end of the market, underwriting to published hurdle rates and typically requiring scale of at least 500 lots to justify diligence spend. They are most active in the established Logan, Ipswich, and Moreton Bay corridors where production efficiency can be leveraged across multiple stages. Slower to commit, but rarely re-trading once they do.

Family offices and longer dated private capital have become a meaningful presence on englobo and land uplift opportunities. Their ability to hold for extended periods allows them to underwrite sites that time constrained cohorts cannot, particularly in PDAs with longer term horizons but clear underlying value.

Over the past six months there has been a notable expansion in Australian family office mandates targeting SEQ residential land, driven by the view that the structural supply shortage is unlikely to resolve inside their investment horizon.

Offshore capital has accelerated. While most cross border volume still targets commercial assets, the flow through into residential via joint ventures with established local operators is real and growing.

Singaporean and Japanese groups are leading enquiries, and Queensland is capturing a growing share of national offshore activity.

Mid tier local private developers remain the backbone of the SEQ market but are more selective than they were. Many have spent the past 12-18 months working through legacy stock and are now re entering acquisitions. They continue to dominate the DA, value add, and land uplift tier, where planning expertise, contractor relationships, and local landowner awareness create value that larger or less locally experienced cohorts cannot easily replicate.

The practical takeaway is that a one size fits all process is leaving value on the table. The strongest outcomes come from campaigns calibrated to the buyer cohorts most likely to transact on that specific site. Different sites require different processes, different timelines, and different conditions of sale.

Outlook

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Outlook Across SEQ’s greenfield market, demand remains well supported but the interest rate environment and cost of living challenges are starting to cut into what buyers can afford.

Two rate rises in 2026 have lifted the cash rate to 4.1% and the standard variable rate to 6%, reversing much of the borrowing capacity regained through 2025. For a household on a $120,000 income, that is roughly $37,000 less than at the start of the year. We are now seeing buyers shifting to smaller lots, pushing further out, or taking longer to commit. Inflation risks tied to global conflicts suggest rates are more likely to move up than down in the near term.

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

However, the underlying drivers remain. Population growth continues to run above the national average, with migration-led demand feeding directly into the greenfield buyer pool. First home buyer schemes are providing a partial buffer at the entry point, keeping the cohort active. The established market remains constrained, with rental vacancies and listings well below long term norms. This combination will keep greenfield demand from retreating in any meaningful way.

For interstate buyers and investors, SEQ retains a compelling relative value position against Sydney.

Looking ahead, there remains a few challenges.

Construction costs are not expected to drop, keeping feasibility tight and limiting the volume of new supply that can be brought to market. And as borrowing capacity remains compressed, projects that priced aggressively through the stronger part of the cycle may face some relative softening demand and extended sale periods while the market adjusts.

The outer greenfield corridors, where affordability and growth intersect most directly remain best positioned through the remainder of the year and 2027. Project performance will be determined by factors including pricing alignment to current borrowing capacity and depth of local demand.

Clinton Trezise Managing Director Queensland & New South Wales clinton@rpmgrp.com.au

Peter Neale Managing Director Queensland & New South Wales petern@rpmgrp.com.au

F or more information, please visit: www.rpmgrp.com.au

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Our Team Project Sales & Marketing Peter Neale

Managing Director Queensland & New South Wales petern@rpmgrp.com.au

Clinton Trezise

Jasmin McDougall

Natalia Martinez

Andrew Raponi

Simon Brinkman

Megha Saha

Phillip Nguyen

Edward Rostron

Managing Director Queensland & New South Wales clinton@rpmgrp.com.au

Project Marketing Manager Queensland & New South Wales jasmin@rpmgrp.com.au

Project Marketing Coordinator Queensland & New South Wales natalia@rpmgrp.com.au

Research, Data & Insights Michael Staedler

General Manager Research, Data & Insights m.staedler@rpmgrp.com.au

Senior Research Manager Research, Data & Insights a.raponi@rpmgrp.com.au

Research Manager Queensland & New South Wales simon@rpmgrp.com.au

Research Analyst Queensland & New South Wales megha@rpmgrp.com.au

Transactions & Advisory James Matley

Sales Director Queensland Transactions & Advisory james@rpmgrp.com.au

SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP

Tim Hyland

National Strategy Manager Transactions & Advisory tim@rpmgrp.com.au

Transactions Associate Transactions & Advisory phil@rpmgrp.com.au

Transactions Associate Transactions & Advisory edwardr@rpmgrp.com.au

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Unlocking Australia’s Property Landscape For detailed insights or custom reporting, contact the team at: contactus@rpmgrp.com.au

rpmgrp.com.au SEQ GREENFIELD MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2026 | © RPM GROUP